317 FXUS61 KCTP 191100 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 700 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increasing odds for a noticeably cooler and rather wet start to Memorial Day weekend && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike heat wave peaks today with record challenging temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s 2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across north central PA later today/tonight and south central PA Wednesday afternoon 3) Major cooldown arrives Thursday and lasts into Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall likely Friday and Saturday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike heat wave peaks today with record challenging temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s Another scorcher today with max temps 85-95F approaching daily records (see climate section). Max heat indices are fcst to reach the upper 90s or just shy of heat advy criteria across the LSV. Record hi minimum temps are also on the table today and Wednesday. -------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across north central PA later today/tonight and south central PA Wednesday afternoon Moist and unstable pre-frontal airmass will be supportive of widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon through the evening. However, marginal deep layer shear values suggest the primary severe risk is probably later tonight over the NW/NC mtns ahead of the sfc cold front crossing Lake Erie. Convective focus shifts to south central PA on Wednesday with narrow plume of weak to moderate CAPE fcst ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Steep low level lapse rates may support a few instances of strong to severe winds. The magnitude & location of the severe threat will be highly dependent on CFROPA timing and amount of cloud cover. SPC MRGL risk (level 1/5) covers the southeast half of the CWA where max temps are fcst btwn 80-90F. ----------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Major cooldown arrives Thursday and lasts into Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall likely Friday and Saturday Relief from the early season heat wave arrives in earnest on Thursday with max temps 20-30 degrees lower vs. Wednesday across the southeast half of the forecast area. Strong high pressure slides from the Lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast to close out the week. Model data shows the high channeling southward down the east-side of the Appalachians, setting up a cold air damming type event heading into Memorial Day weekend. We may not be bearish enough on daytime temperatures. It also appears probable that periods of soaking rain will dampen at least the start of the holiday weekend. WPC 48hr QPF amounts are quite wet with a widespread 1-2.5 inches fcst from 12Z Friday to 12Z Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Patchy low-lying fog has developed in spots where rain fell overnight & skies briefly cleared out. This fog should clear out by 13Z-14Z as daylight mixes out the boundary layer. Otherwise, prevailing VFR is favored through the 12Z TAF period, with the main exceptions being visibility restrictions in any heavier showers/thunderstorms that develop & cloud ceilings lowering to MVFR-IFR across the Northern Tier (KBFD) after 06Z Wednesday. Chances for spotty showers/thunderstorms will pick up again this afternoon and evening, primarily between 16Z-00Z, as weak shortwaves move across the periphery of a ridge over the Western Atlantic. Similar to yesterday, gusty winds may accompany these spotty showers/storms given the moderately unstable airmass (HREF mean SBCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates (>8 C/km) inplace, though placement/timing uncertainties remain given the weak forcing mechanisms in place. Most convection will diminish after 00Z Wednesday with the loss of daytime heating, though some models are hinting at an MCS associated with an approaching cold front reaching KBFD around 03Z-06Z Wednesday, bringing the potential for gusty winds and visibility restrictions. MCS timing and impacts will be sensitive to its development/evolution across the Ohio Valley this afternoon & evening, with TAF mentions not included at this time given high model variability. Lastly, LLWS mentions were included at our northern terminals (KBFD/KIPT) through the evening/overnight hours as 900 mb winds increase to around 40 kts due to pressure gradient between low pressure over Southern Canada & Bermuda High over the Western Atlantic. Outlook... Wed...Restrictions probable through Wednesday night with widespread showers/storms along CFROPA. Thu...Lingering showers across S PA, restrictions possible. Fri...Restrictions likely with rain moving in from south to north, lasting into Fri night. Sat...Restrictions likely with rain. && .CLIMATE... The following climate sites across central Pennsylvania set new daily high temperature records for May 18th: * A record high temperature of 92 degrees was set in Altoona, breaking the previous record of 91 degrees initially set back in 1962. This record was tied two times previously, back in 1996 and 2017. * A record high temperature of 86 degrees was set in Bradford, breaking the previous record of 85 degrees set back in 1962. ** Note: The high temperature for State College will be reported around 7AM on 5/19. This is due to the State College CO-OP observations running 7AM-7AM. Thus, today's (5/18) high temperature will be reported in tomorrow's (5/19) observation. This record, for reference, is 92 degrees set in 1962. --------------------------------------------- Abnormally warm temperatures will continue on May 19th, thus multiple sites could challenge daily record high temperatures. Daily Maximum High Temperatures for May 19th: * Harrisburg: 95F set in 1962 * Williamsport: 96F in in 1996 * Altoona: 92F set in 1996 * Bradford: 85F set in 1962 * State College: 92F set in 1934, tied in 1996. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Teare CLIMATE...Beaty  350 FXUS65 KVEF 191100 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 400 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures will warm up through the week as a dry weather pattern sets up over the region. && .DISCUSSION...Today through early next week. A weak and baggy trough remains across the Western US today which will keep temperatures on the cooler side of normal with some lingering northerly breezes through the day. Heights will gradually rise through the remainder of the week allowing for a gradual warming trend, with afternoon highs returning to near normal Wednesday, and climbing above normal by the weekend. Aside from temperatures, dry conditions are expected through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak low pressure center may develop across the eastern Pacific early next week which may bring an increase in cloud cover and some very low chances for showers to the higher terrain of northwest Arizona. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Gusty northeast winds will pick up through the morning today, with gust speeds between 20 and 25 kts. Late-afternoon and evening, gusts will diminish, with directional variability between 330 and 020 through sunset. After sunset, breezy northwest winds will persist overnight with speeds between 7 and 10 kts. No operationally significant cloud cover. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Gusty northeast winds will pick up through the morning for the Las Vegas Valley with gusts around 25 kts. Gusts will decrease late-afternoon, with breezy northwesterly winds taking over after sunset. Light northwesterly winds prevail for KBIH. Light and diurnal winds expected for KDAG. Gusty north winds expected for KIFP and KEED with gust speeds peaking between 30 and 35 kts. No operationally significant cloud cover. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Outler AVIATION...Soulat For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  598 FXUS63 KILX 191103 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 603 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weakening line of storms will move through central Illinois this morning, bringing a low (less than 15% chance) risk of damaging winds or hail. - Additional storms may develop near Interstate 70 around midday, threatening the area with damaging winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall. - Saturated ground from recent heavy rains creates a lingering flash flood risk near Interstate 70, though the chance of exceeding flooding rainfall rates is low (20% or less). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Remnants of a linear MCS persist over west-central Illinois early this morning. While the activity has generally remained sub-severe, the mesoscale environment remains capable of producing occasional damaging wind gusts. Sustenance of the current ragged convective line is being supported by approximately 30-35 kts of effective layer shear, driven by a 50-60 kt low-level jet (LLJ) core veering in ahead of the system. Thermodynamic profiles ahead of the line are characterized by modest MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, supported by favorable mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km, suggesting that isolated large hail cannot be entirely discounted. The potential for localized downbursts remains a focus as DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg combined with localized evaporative cooling and mid-level dry air could occasionally breach the morning inversion. Conversely, the tornado risk is considered minimal due to marginal low- level shear and an unfavorable storm-relative vector orientation. Nevertheless, convection should continue through the late morning as it nears the I-55 corridor, though it is expected to weaken as the primary mid-level shortwave moves north of I-80 and the LLJ recedes. Regarding precipitation, rainfall rates have remained modest. MRMS data indicates one-hour rates generally at or below one inch, a trend supported by high-resolution guidance as the line continues its gradual decay through the morning hours. Convective redevelopment is expected to remain suppressed north of Interstate 72 for the rest of the day, consistent with the stabilization caused by this mornings convective debris. The area near and south of I-70 presents the main concern for later today due to a higher potential for destabilization. Morning convective outflows are not expected to reach this southern region until approximately Noon (17z). HREF data indicates about 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE in this vicinity, which, when combined with a subtle mid-level shortwave, could increase effective-layer shear to near 30 kts. These conditions may briefly reinvigorate convective outflows, potentially resulting in damaging winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall. A heavy rainfall potential is particularly concerning given the wet antecedent conditions, with recent observations of 3-4 inches of rain across portions of Effingham, Clay, and Jasper counties. Flash flood guidance indicates that rainfall exceeding 1.25 inches per hour today could trigger widespread flooding. While current HREF guidance suggests a low probability (20% or less) of reaching these rates, the risk remains a focal point due to the saturated ground. Scattered showers may linger across southeast Illinois through Wednesday morning, with increased baroclinicity/frontogenesis behind the departed cold front. Rainfall amounts would be light should this occur, and the chances will be fleeting as a drier, cooler continental air mass settles over the Midwest. Precipitation is expected to return by Friday following a brief period of seasonably cool conditions. As surface high pressure shifts to the east, a robust mid-level shortwave is forecast to track into the central United States. This pattern, characterized by a steady stream of Gulf moisture and a series of minor impulses originating from the Southern Plains, will keep central Illinois susceptible to multiple rounds of scattered showers. While weak kinematic profiles should largely mitigate the risk of severe weather, a gradual increase in instability over the weekend may support the development of scattered thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 554 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered showers persist this morning with transient MVFR/IFR cigs. A tempo group has been added to account for this activity amid an otherwise VFR pattern. Winds will veer from southwest to north throughout this TAF period as a cold front pushes through the central Illinois terminals. Thinking most thunderstorm activity will stay south of the terminals through this evening, so any prob30 groups mentioned this afternoon ahead of the front currently exclude tsra mention. Clouds will lift and break late tonight as a drier, cooler airmass settles over the Midwest. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...MJA  585 FXUS63 KMQT 191103 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 703 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler than normal temperatures today through the rest of the work week. - Up to 35% chance of frost impacting the early portion of the growing season Friday AM. && .UPDATE... Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The going forecast remains on track this morning as the prior day's downward trend in the thunderstorm forecast for the early morning hours this morning proved correct with KMQT radar returns showing a broken line of showers with scattered thunder, mostly clustered in Baraga County and along the state line adjacent to Iron County as of 6Z. Elsewhere, fog is observed ahead of the cold front as moisture- rich easterly and southeasterly flow upslopes from Lake Michigan and upslopes towards the higher terrain of the west half. As the front mixes the boundary layer and winds shift to be out of the northwest, some low stratus and slight chances (mainly 15-30%) of lingering showers is forecast but fog is not expected to persist, so the Dense Fog Advisories will be allowed to gradually expire from west to east as originally intended. Otherwise, the main impactful weather will be the remnant gusty conditions and choppy waters creating conditions hazardous to small craft today and the potential for frost for the morning of the 22nd with the resumption of frost/freeze headlines as agricultural growing season approaches. Despite high pressure dominating the local weather pattern for the work week, cold advection in the wake of the passing trough results in 850mb temperatures being in the 25th percentile or lower relative to the climatology of 850mb temps for this time of year, translating to surface temperatures that are up to 5-10 degrees below normal. The LREF shows up to 35% chances of Friday morning's low falling to 36 or lower, with the NBM deterministic low around that temperature for much of the interior UP. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Amended at 254 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Quiet and benign weather follows the ongoing passage of a cold front for most of the remainder of the week. Isolated to scattered showers linger into today, however instability will likely be elevated and only briefly uncapped in the east/south-central for a few hours at best. Thunder is in the forecast, but strong to severe storms are not expected. Highs in the east half today will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s, lower in the northwestern UP where mid 40s to mid 50s are expected. From there, the low departs to the northeast and high pressure over the Plains replaces it. This maintains over the Great Lakes through most of the work week yielding dry weather until the weekend. Lingering troughing aloft keeps colder northwest flow through Wednesday, resulting in temps between 5-15 degrees below normal; highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s. A warming pattern is then expected toward next weekend as mid level ridging slowly builds over the southeast and extends up into the Great Lakes. Another trough over the Rockies on Friday looks to move toward the Upper Great Lakes during the weekend, bringing back precip to the UP. Instability with this is lacking, so impactful strong to severe storms are not anticipated. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 702 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 In the wake of a cold front, damp conditions are leading to LIFR conditions at SAW and MVFR conditions at CMX as of 11Z, though CMX did spend much of the overnight period at airport minimums. While chances of further precipitation after 12Z are 20-40%, the atmosphere dries out after noon and conditions improve to at least MVFR at all sites, though lingering ceilings will prevent a clearing to VFR until overnight tonight at the soonest. With the front past IWD/CMX, northwest winds will continue throughout the period, with SAW still observing southerly winds until the front fully passes this morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Amended at 254 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A low pressure moves northeast over Upper Michigan and Lake Superior today. This tightens the pressure gradient and increases northeast winds over the west and north- central portions of the lake to 20-30 kts early this morning. As the low moves overhead, winds become northwest and strongest winds shift from the west half to the east as colder air moves in. Probabilities of gales to 35 kts are 25% or less, highest in the east this afternoon. Showers and storms are expected with this system into this morning, however severe storms are no longer expected. This rainfall will prolong fog over the east into this morning. High pressure returns winds to 20 kts or less by Wednesday afternoon, winds likely maintain light into the weekend. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ244- 264>266. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LSZ245>251. Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ221- 248-250. && $$ UPDATE...GS DISCUSSION...77/GS AVIATION...GS MARINE...77/GS  510 FXUS63 KUNR 191101 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 501 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold temperatures overnight with freeze/frost headlines - Gradual warmup mid-week with increasing precipitation chances for Thursday/Friday - Sharp warmup for the weekend into early next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 919 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Going forecast in pretty good shape. Clouds are starting to breakup as leftover diurnal showers wane per shortwave moving into the upper Midwest. This will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s over much of the CWA overnight, covered by Freeze/Frost headlines. A warming trend begins tomorrow and peaks over the weekend. Weak disturbance and a bit of buoyancy may pop weak convection Wednesday with better chances Thursday/Friday as stronger disturbances rotate through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Ensemble spreads tight, but then diverge a little for the weekend into early next week, but most paint a sharp warmup in line with flat upper ridge/westerly downslope flow. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 128 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Current Water Vapor and upper air models show troughing just east of the Rockies running through the northern and central plains, with upper ridges over the New England region and off the west coast. 19Z surface analysis depicts a surface low to our east over MN, surface high over central MT. Radar shows widespread precipitation across the forecast area, with some of the higher elevations receiving light accumulations of snow today. Winds are currently breezy out of the northwest to north, with temperatures in the 30s to low 40s. Precipitation will taper off from west to east late afternoon through the evening, as trough slides eastward today. Cool temperatures continue tonight as clouds clear up and light northwest winds continue. Much of the area is expected to reach near or below freezing overnight. HREF probability for temps to reach at or below freezing sit at 80-100% for areas from the Black Hills and west. Further east will be a bit trickier as cloud cover will linger into tonight as the trough slowly shifts eastward. A Freeze warning has been issued for most of our plains areas, with a frost advisory in effect for part of south-central SD for Tuesday morning. Brief and weak ridge sets over the region mid-week, resulting in drier conditions and a warming trend towards near seasonable. Another wave rides southeast from western Canada towards the northern plains later in the week, increasing chances for precipitation late Thursday into Friday. Shortwave ridging moves over the weekend, bringing warmer temps back in as well. By Sunday/Monday the region should see highs climb back into the 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued At 500 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Lingering mid-level clouds will slowly filter out of the region this morning, with transient MVFR conditions in spots (mainly Black Hills). Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for SDZ001-002- 012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-072>078. Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for SDZ046-047. WY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for WYZ054>056- 058>060. && $$ UPDATE...Helgeson DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...SE  590 FXUS64 KEWX 191103 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 603 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Line of strong to severe storms with locally heavy rain possible Tuesday evening/night. - Active weather pattern from mid-week through the upcoming Memorial Holiday weekend. Rounds of storms with heavy rain could lead to localized flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Breezy and warm conditions continue tonight under overcast skies. Lows early Tuesday morning will be in the 70s across South Central Texas with most climate sites once again nearing their record high minimum temperatures. Breezy, humid and hot conditions continue during the day tomorrow although gusts should be a bit weaker than those seen Monday in the 20-25 mph range through the afternoon. Heat index values may approach triple digits from the I-35 corridor and areas east but rise from 100-107 degrees along the Rio Grande. Dry conditions are likely through late this afternoon before a weak cold front slowly moves towards our area evident by likely ongoing convection north of our area in the afternoon. Further west, isolated to scattered storms may develop near the dry line over the higher terrain of Mexico then make its way wast towards the Rio Grande before colliding with the front. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be nearing the Hill Country from the north or northwest in the evening then move across the area tonight into Wednesday morning. A Level 2 of 5 risk continues for severe weather with the greatest risk generally along and west of the I-35 corridor. While there could be some isolated storms ahead of the front and in the west ahead of the dryline, the main activity will likely be in a line or broken line as it enters our area this evening. The main severe risk continues to be isolated strong to severe wind gusts, though potentially large hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest updrafts. There do remain some differences on how quickly this activity moves across the area which will have an effect on localized rainfall amounts. WPC highlights a level 2 of 4 risk for isolated excessive rainfall which could lead to localized flash flooding for a majority of our area including the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. General rainfall amounts of around 0.75" to 1" are expected but pockets of locally higher amounts may be in the 3-5" range. Most storm activity will be south of our area near sunrise with more stable conditions in place as the atmosphere recovers. Cooler temperatures in the 80s are expected for a majority of the area Wednesday. While some isolated showers or a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during the day, it seems more likely rain-free conditions will continue into the afternoon Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An active pattern continues in the extended period with daily rain chances due to persistent upper-level southwesterly flow bringing multiple disturbances moving over the area. The atmosphere may still be recovering for most areas Wednesday evening but a highly moist airmass and stalled surface boundary to the north will allow for continued medium to high rain chances Wednesday night and Thursday. Some guidance indicates a complex of storms developing in West Texas and moving towards the area late Wednesday night and gradually working its way across the area Thursday. There is some potential for severe weather but higher confidence would be for some heavy rain given high precipitable water values. A Slight (Level 2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall remains valid on Thursday which includesportions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. As mentioned previously, each round of storms will influence the next days storm potential so confidence on precise timing and placement for any activity is low in the long term forecast. That said, the weekend remains another time period to watch as models indicate a passing shortwave trough during this period with no real definitive ending to this pattern into early next week. Each round of rainfall will lead to a deeper moistening of soils and possibly more runoff late week as grounds saturate. The pattern may lead to widespread beneficial rain for most areas but areas that receive repeated rounds and higher totals will likely see increasing potential for flash flooding or river flooding. Given the storm potential can rely on leftover boundaries from previous days, its hard to say exactly where the highest rain totals will be. Towards the end of the week it is likely most of, if not all, of South Central Texas will see some rainfall this week. Continue to check the forecast as the week progresses for those with plans this weekend for the Memorial Day holiday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An MCS moving along the coast has stirred up the atmosphere over South-Central Texas and all terminals are currently VFR. As this feature moves farther away, MVFR ceilings will move back in for the rest of the morning. Showers and thunderstorms will move into the region this evening bringing MVFR conditions. Best timing for convection is between 00Z and 12Z. Lower ceilings and visibility Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 91 72 85 71 / 40 80 30 80 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 91 73 85 72 / 30 80 40 80 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 72 86 71 / 30 80 40 80 Burnet Muni Airport 88 69 82 69 / 40 80 30 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 95 72 89 69 / 30 50 40 100 Georgetown Muni Airport 89 71 83 70 / 40 80 30 70 Hondo Muni Airport 91 72 86 70 / 20 80 40 90 San Marcos Muni Airport 92 73 86 72 / 30 80 40 80 La Grange - Fayette Regional 91 73 86 73 / 30 70 40 70 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 73 86 72 / 20 80 40 80 Stinson Muni Airport 93 74 87 72 / 20 80 40 80 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...05  647 FXUS61 KBUF 191100 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 700 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summer-like heat continues today. 2) Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive very late today into tonight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe limits (Slight Risk for Severe Weather continues for late today and tonight). 3) Drier, but much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front for the middle and later half of the work week, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Summer-like heat continues today. Mid and upper level heights will start to fall today as the mid and upper level ridge axis slides east of the area. NBM max temperature output continues to be too warm. Looking at Monday's high temperatures, NBM forecast highs averaged 3-5 degrees F too warm. NBM again looks too warm today. In fact, NBM high temperature output is right near the top of the chart, nearing the 90th percentile amongst all other guidance. With that in mind and in coordination with surrounding offices as has been done over the past several days, daytime highs were lowered a couple to few degrees again today. Highs are expected to top out mainly in the mid and upper 80s, with a run at 90 again for those traditionally warmer locations, while it will remain a bit cooler along and closer to the lakeshores. Winds will continue to ramp up through the day with gusts 20-30 mph areawide this afternoon and up to 35 mph, or even a few gusts to 40 mph northeast of Lake Erie, especially a bit further from the lake away from the cool dome over and closer to the lakeshore. A few mainly light showers will cross the area this morning. Additional scattered showers and storms will then be possible during the peak heating hours this afternoon, and would mainly be confined to areas along and inland of any lake breeze circulations. Some gusty winds are possible with a stronger storm or two, however overall severe potential through this afternoon remains low. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive very late today into tonight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe limits (Slight Risk for Severe Weather continues for late today and tonight). Confidence for a few strong to severe storms continues to moderate for late today through the early overnight hours just ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. CAPE values of 1000- 2000 J/kg (especially earlier in the evening) with 25-35 knots of 0- 6km shear will foster the potential for damaging wind gusts, which will be the greatest threat. Local BUFKIT soundings continue to advertise "fat" CAPE profiles, which supports stronger updraft potential, indicating the possibility for large hail as well. Finally, 0-3km SRH values of 200-300 m^2/s^2 (300-400 m^2/s^2 far western NY) support the chance for an isolated tornado or two. SPC has all of western and northcentral NY outlined in a Slight Risk for scattered severe storms during this period. The best window for severe storms will be 6-7 PM this evening through 1-2 AM tonight. With that timing comes the gradual loss of diurnal heating heading through the evening. This leads to some uncertainty as to whether or not the line can maintain its' intensity, especially by later in the evening. Current thinking is the line will maintain intensity as it nears or enters far western NY early this evening, then gradually weakens as it heads further east into our area as heating wanes. KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier, but much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front for the middle and later half of the work week, before thepotential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. A large area of high pressure will build into our region in the wake of the cold frontal passage, bringing a mainly dry, but much cooler airmass back in across the area for the middle and later half of the week. Coolest day will be Thursday, with many locations not getting out of the 50s. Expect a slow rebound in temperatures into the holiday weekend with mainly 60s across the area, however an area of low pressure approaching from the southwest may bring unsettled weather back into our region for at least a portion of this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR flight conditions are found this morning, and these conditions will be predominate through most of today, although a few VFR showers will be around this morning. A few afternoon instability showers and storms will also be possible along and inland of lake breeze circulations. A consistent flow of 35 to 45 knots off the deck will bring gusty winds later this morning through the afternoon as diurnal mixing commences, especially northeast of the Lakes where gusts may reach 30 to 35 knots. The main concern during this TAF period will come tonight. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into far western NY around early this this evening ahead of a strong cold front, then trek east while slowly weakening through around 06Z. A few storms will have the potential to produce strong winds and large hail. Expect localized LIFR/IFR flight reductions within any of the stronger storms. In the wake of the cold front, expect widespread IFR/MVFR CIGS to develop for the second half of tonight. Outlook... Wednesday...Lingering IFR/MVFR improving to VFR. Thursday through Friday...VFR. Saturday...Potential for sub-VFR with as a low pressure system brings rain to the region. && .MARINE... Pressure gradient will continue to tighten across the lower Great Lake region today ahead of a strong cold front. Light to gentle breezes this morning will increase to moderate later this morning into the afternoon bringing a light to moderate chop on both lakes. However, a freshening breeze will develop across western Lake Ontario, where a Small Craft Advisory criteria has been issued from late this morning through the early overnight. In addition, a line of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead the cold front bringing the possibility for locally higher winds and waves early this evening into the overnight with any stronger storm, with the potential for large hail as well. Winds will then veer west behind the cold front late tonight, then freshen through Wednesday morning on eastern Lake Ontario, where another round of Small Craft Advisories will be possible by later Wednesday morning through a portion of Wednesday night. High pressure will then build across the lower Great Lakes region bringing lessening winds and lowering waves later Wednesday night through Thursday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM  627 FXUS62 KMFL 191104 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 704 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 703 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through at least Wednesday evening as breezy easterly winds prevail. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across SW Florida again today. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are the main threats. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all urban areas through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Rinse and repeat weather pattern similar to what we've seen the last few days across South Florida. A cut-off upper low will continue to meander near the Bahamas, edging slightly closer to Florida through the middle of the week. This disturbance looks to advect a few vorticity impulses into the vicinity of Florida's eastern coastline. This will provide some extra forcing for isolated to scattered showers to develop along the instability ridden Gulfstream waters during the overnight and morning hours for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The 00z MFL sounding shows quite a moist environment, with a PWAT of 1.91 inches and high relative humidity values from top to bottom. Along with CAPE values near 2000 J/kg, this has allowed for some gusty showers to develop across Miami Dade over the last few hours. Light showers should continue through the early morning hours before activity then shifts to sea-breeze induced thunderstorms over interior and southwest Florida. Predominant easterly flow should once again keep the Gulf breeze pinned closer to the coastline, so highest PoPs and strongest storms will favor coastal Monroe and Collier counties for both today and Wednesday. Thermodynamics will be similar to the last few days, with steep low level lapse rates and surface based CAPE values up to 3000 J/kg. Weak forcing, weak steering flow, and weak shear, will make for most activity to be pulse-y and slow moving, with new updrafts mainly forming along collision boundaries. Model forecast soundings and upper level water vapor imagery seem to indicate that some increased mid-level dry air will work its way into the region over the next couple of days. This may be part of the reason as to why models have trended slightly drier for Tuesday's activity. This may also serve to suppress more mature storm growth, so confidence for any strong to severe thunderstorms is once again very low and most activity should remain relatively low topped. On the flip side, "if" thunderstorms grow big enough (and that's a big "if" given the weak mid-level lapse rates), the drier mid-level air could help induce a few stronger wind gusts, which is supported by DCAPE values near 750 J/kg. What is described above would also be true for Wednesday's activity, except conditions trend slightly drier with PWATs dropping into the 1.4 to 1.5 inch range. Overall, the main threats will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Rain amounts will generally be between 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with locally heavier amounts of 3 to 5 inches under stronger storms. Generally breezy easterly winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 28 mph across the region during the afternoon. High temperatures slightly above average, in the upper 80s to low 90s, will lead to widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all metro areas. Nighttime lows will remain in the mid to upper 70s near the coasts and lower 70s inland. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The pattern will remain generally unchanged for the latter part of the week and through the weekend, with upper level ridging extending across the Gulf and the aforementioned upper level low continuing to meander over the western Atlantic waters. Near the surface, an area of high pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic waters and extending over the peninsula. This setup will help promote robust easterly flow across South Florida during this period, while also maintaining healthy moisture advection along the atmospheric column. Ensemble guidance places PWAT values during the period solidly near the climatological normals for this time of year (1.5- 1.7 inches) while model soundings show this moisture permeating the whole column (and not just the lower levels like was the case earlier this month). With prevailing easterly flow and ample moisture in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain on the forecast each day, especially along the sea breeze boundaries each afternoon. Although some isolated activity will likely develop over the East Coast metro early each afternoon, the better chances for more widespread activity (in the 50-70% range) will be spread out across southwest Florida and the interior where the sea breezes are forecast to meet each day. Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), although some of the shower activity could help provide some brief, localized relief and help temper conditions. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated through the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 703 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated to scattered vicinity showers continue through the morning hours along the eastern areas, which may create brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Breezy easterly winds of 10 to 15 kts will persist through the period with gusts up to 25 kts during the afternoon hours. Scattered thunderstorms will favor interior and southwest Florida later this afternoon, mainly affecting KAPF. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are expected to continue through the rest of today across the Atlantic waters due to persistent easterly winds of 15 to 20 kts. Winds look to weaken slightly for the latter half of the week. Isolated weak showers are possible for the Gulfstream waters through the morning each day this week. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will favor the Gulf coast and Gulf waters, where gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any storm. Atlantic seas will be 2-4 feet through the rest of the week, while the Gulf will remain 2 feet or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Continued High Risk of Rip Currents for all Atlantic beaches through the middle of the week due to persistent easterly flow. Guidance is beginning to show that the risk of rip currents will start to taper off towards the latter half of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 77 87 77 / 40 20 30 10 West Kendall 88 74 89 74 / 50 20 40 10 Opa-Locka 88 77 89 77 / 40 20 20 10 Homestead 87 76 88 76 / 50 30 30 10 Fort Lauderdale 85 78 86 78 / 30 20 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 85 77 86 77 / 30 20 30 10 Pembroke Pines 89 78 90 78 / 40 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 86 77 86 77 / 30 20 20 0 Boca Raton 86 78 86 78 / 20 20 20 10 Naples 91 74 91 74 / 70 10 80 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMP LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...Rizzuto  653 FXUS64 KOHX 191105 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 605 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 546 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Above normal temperatures with 80s to low 90s today, then mostly low 80s the rest of the week. - There are medium to high rain chances each day. There is only a low severe weather threat this evening. - There is a high chance for at least 2 inches of rain by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Satellite imagery this evening shows an upper-level trough over the Great Plains with a cold front over the Kansas/Nebraska area. On Tuesday, this trough will eject into the Great Lakes region with the cold front slowly tracking south through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of this cold front, moisture will be on the rise across Middle TN. There's already evidence of this with dewpoints in the 60s and the PWAT on this evening's sounding rising to 1.14 inches. Do expect this PWAT to continue to rise with models still showing values near to above 1.5 inches. As the aforementioned front approaches, a pattern change is finally here. Scattered showers and storms will mainly favor areas west of I-65 Tuesday afternoon into the evening. While the setup isn't the most favorable for severe weather with highest wind shear displaced to the north, there does remain a low severe weather risk for storms near the front. Main concern would be strong to damaging winds, but forecast soundings do show steep mid-level lapse rates that could result in small hail. The front slowly sags south through Wednesday, and high rain/storm chances will be in place through the day. Don't anticipate severe weather Wednesday with the setup even less favorable with the instability getting pushed south ahead of the front. But it should be a beneficial setup for some much needed rain with the front and PWATs near the 90th percentile for this time of the year. Temperatures will also start to cool behind the front, from upper-80s to low-90s Tuesday into the low-80s Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The front stalls to our south Thursday, and with a troughing pattern setting up over the eastern CONUS through the end of the week, this will keep medium to high rain chances in the forecast. With the front to the south Thursday, highest rain chances will favor areas south of I-40, but then a series of shortwaves look to bring high rain chances areawide Friday and into the weekend. This is still looking like a very good setup for the rain we do desperately need, and forecast rain totals continue to trend up. By the end of the weekend, probability looks high at 70-80% for widespread rain totals over 2 inches. This pattern will also keep temperatures closer to normal with highs in the low-80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR will continue today with south winds gusting 20-25 KT. An approaching cold front will set off scattered thunderstorms starting this evening for CKV and perhaps BNA/MQY. Scattered showers and storms will gradually spread across the area late night into Wednesday morning. Confidence on exact timing is low. Brief impacts to cigs/vsby and gusty winds will occur with the storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 68 83 64 / 30 60 80 50 Clarksville 90 67 80 63 / 50 70 80 50 Crossville 85 64 81 61 / 10 40 90 40 Columbia 90 67 82 64 / 20 50 90 50 Cookeville 87 66 82 63 / 10 40 90 50 Jamestown 88 64 83 61 / 10 30 90 50 Lawrenceburg 87 67 82 64 / 10 40 90 60 Murfreesboro 90 67 84 64 / 2040 90 60 Waverly 91 67 81 64 / 40 60 80 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....13  615 FXUS65 KTFX 191104 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 504 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of the region. - More widespread precipitation is expected on Wednesday through Thursday. - Temperatures will gradually warm through the week with the warmest temperatures expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1226 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026/ - Meteorological Overview After a cool start to the morning, temperatures will warm modestly into the 50s and 60s. Lingering moisture on the backside of the upper-level trough combined with modest instability will allow for pop-up showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon today. On Wednesday another upper-level trough will arrive bringing a chance for widespread wetting precipitation to the region. Snow will be generally confined to locations above 7,000 feet with the rest of the lower elevations seeing primarily rain through the event. As the upper-level trough starts to slowly exit the area towards the end of the week, temperatures will gradually start to warm up as upper-level ridging begins building over the western CONUS through the weekend. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: For today, hi-res models were showing pretty scattered 15-30% chances for precipitation across the region. In general, most locations will remain dry throughout the day except for where these pop-up showers end up developing. The highest chances for thunderstorm activity will be across North-Central Montana with any precipitation in Central and Southwest Montana expected to be more stratiform in nature. There is still good agreement for widespread wetting rains. The heaviest amounts are currently expected along a stretch from the Northern Rockies down through Central Montana including Great Falls and Helena into Lewistown. Probabilities of more than 0.25" of precipitation are currently sitting at 60-80% with a 20-40% chance of 0.5" or more. While precipitation amounts across the remainder of North-Central and Southwest Montana are not expected to be quite as high there is still at least a 40% chance for a tenth of an inch or && .AVIATION... 19/12Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail throughout the duration of the 1912/2012 TAF period; however, widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop between 16-19z and persist through 03-06z Wednesday across Southwest through North Central Montana. Main impact from any shower or storm will be erratic winds and brief reductions in CIGS to low-VFR, along with mountain obscuration. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 64 40 58 38 / 40 20 80 70 CTB 62 38 55 34 / 20 10 80 40 HLN 65 38 64 38 / 20 20 60 90 BZN 62 34 63 35 / 10 20 40 90 WYS 54 26 57 30 / 10 10 40 80 DLN 61 34 62 35 / 10 20 20 70 HVR 68 40 62 36 / 30 30 50 10 LWT 60 36 58 35 / 30 20 80 80 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  752 FXUS61 KPHI 191106 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 706 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and more humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. 2. A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, then much cooler temperatures by the end of this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and more humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. A strong upper-level ridge centered off the Southeast U.S. coast will remain in place through late this evening before it starts to flatten on its northwest side during Wednesday. This along with surface high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic will drive a south to southwest flow of early season (anomalous) heat across our area into Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to peak into the 90s for many areas again today and Wednesday, except cooler along the coasts and the higher terrain. While the surface dew points will likely mix out some during peak heating due to the drier ground and boundary layer (low evapotranspiration), this stretch of early season heat, with record breaking high temperatures probable, will have potentially greater impacts. The Heat Advisory remains in place across much of the region, including most of the area where the heat index criteria starts at 100F (the urban I-95 corridor criteria starts at 96F through June). While it will probably fall a little short for some areas, the potential greater impacts (lack of acclimation) is driving our decision. Where the wind turns more from the south and especially southeast will result in quite a bit of cooling due to the chilly ocean and therefore did not include the immediate coastal zones in the Heat Advisory. Peak heat indices will be 95 to nearing 100 degrees, with the core of the heat shifting a bit more south and east during Wednesday as a strong cold front starts to arrive. Based on this, portions of the Heat Advisory for areas farther north and west of I-95 only goes through Tuesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will depend on how quickly cloud cover arrives along with showers and some thunderstorms. Either way, we will have a high launching pad for temperatures to start Wednesday and it will still be rather hot. Temperatures at night will be quite warm by mid May standards. Lows will only be in the mid 60s to low 70s, which will challenge daily warmest low temperature records for May 19th. Today will largely be dry as well thanks to the strong ridging overhead. However, a stray shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon and evening with the amount of heat and instability in the low-levels. The most likely location for any storms would be north of I-78 where terrain would aid in forcing for any convection. Shear will be relatively low though (only around 25-30 kts) so little organization is expected with anything that does form. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, then much cooler temperatures by the end of this week. As mentioned above, a cold front will approach the area Wednesday and bring an end to the stretch of above normal temperatures by Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this front as it passes through the region. Recent guidance trends continue to show the front moving through during the second half of Wednesday into Wednesday night. Given this timing, there is the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. There remains uncertainty in the more specific details and some timing variations remain. Regarding the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, the cold front will be moving into an air mass that will feature plenty of instability. The better shear and forcing look to be to our north, but bulk shear values will be supportive of some storm organization along with some supportive lapse rates. All of this said, the potential is there for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with the SPC maintaining a Marginal Risk in Wednesday's severe weather outlook. The primary concerns with any strong to severe thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. General rainfall accumulation from this frontal passage looks around 0.25" or less. However, given this convection and PWAT values reaching to 1.5-2.0", localized higher amounts are certainly possible with any heavier pockets of rain. As the front sinks south into Thursday morning, it then looks to linger near or just south of the area through the remainder of the day Thursday. This will lead to the potential for more rain showers, particularly for our southeastern zones. An unsettled pattern looks to continue to take shape for Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...Mainly VFR. Southwesterly winds 5-8 knots increasing to 10-15 knots, with some afternoon gusts up to 20 knots. Can't rule out a stray shower/storm, most likely at KABE, but overall chances are low (15% or less). Moderate confidence. Tonight...VFR. Southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. High confidence. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday...Sub-VFR with rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Rain showers may continue into Thursday. Friday through Saturday...Sub-VFR with rain showers moving through. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory continues for the New Jersey Atlantic coastal waters this afternoon and evening. Though southerly flow will be increasing, a hot air mass will be moving over the chilly water and the vertical mixing will be reduced. However, given the strength of the flow, there should be a period of wind gusts to around 25 knots and seas building to about 5 feet. It looks to be more marginal for the Delaware Atlantic coastal waters and therefore held off on issuing an advisory. For Delaware Bay, the conditions should continue to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. Outlook... Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Seas lessen by Wednesday morning but elevated winds out of the southwest remain through the day Wednesday with gusts near 20-25 kt. Rain showers move in Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. There is also the potential for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night. Thursday...Conditions expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria but showers may linger. Friday through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected as seas reach 4-6 feet. There is the chance for some rain showers. Rip Currents... On Tuesday, south to southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 8 seconds. As a result there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches. Depending on the exact direction of the winds, there is the potential for a HIGH risk for rip currents at the Jersey Shore. On Wednesday, south to southwest winds will be a bit lighter, and winds look to be more parallel to the shores. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 6 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and lift threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOWrisk for Delaware Beaches. Will continue to note that while surface temperatures inland will be in the mid to upper 90s Tuesday and in the low to mid 90s on Wednesday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Near record breaking temperatures are forecast from through Wednesday. High temperatures Tuesday and low temperatures Wednesday morning could challenge monthly all time records for May. Below is a summary of the records broken on Monday, May 18th: Record High Temperatures broken on May 18 Site Record/Year Georgetown (GED) 91/1974 (new record 96) Mount Pocono (MPO) 87/1962 (new record 88) Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 (new record 96) Reading (RDG) 96/1962 (tied record 96) Record Warmest Low Temperature broken on May 18 Site Record/Year Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/2017 (new record 63) Records for our climate sites are listed below: Monthly Record High Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 97/May 19, 1962 AC Airport (ACY) 99/May 29, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 95/May 31, 1895 & May 23, 1925 Georgetown (GED) 98/May 28, 1991 Mount Pocono (MPO) 94/May 22, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 97/May 30 & 31, 1991 Reading (RDG) 97/May 20, 1996 Trenton (TTN) 99/May 23, 1911 & May 31, 1986 Wilmington (ILG) 98/May 10, 1895 & May 30, 1895 Monthly Record Warmest Low Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 71/May 31, 1975, May 28 & 31, 1991 AC Airport (ACY) 73/May 24, 2004 & May 19, 2017 AC Marina (55N) 73/May 30 & 31, 1987, & May 31, 1991 Georgetown (GED) 74/May 23, 1953 & May 20, 2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 68/May 21, 1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 78/May 31, 1895 Reading (RDG) 72/May 28 & 31, 1939, & May 31, 1991 Trenton (TTN) 75/May 31, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 75/May 30, 1895 Record High Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 97/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1962 AC Marina (55N) 92/1998 Georgetown (GED) 96/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 96/1962 Reading (RDG) 96/1962 Trenton (TTN) 96/1962 Wilmington (ILG) 95/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 73/2017 AC Marina (55N) 68/1998 Georgetown (GED) 73/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 60/1943 Philadelphia (PHL) 74/1877 Reading (RDG) 68/1962 Trenton (TTN) 70/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2017 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996 AC Marina (55N) 69/1996 Georgetown (GED) 74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ070-071-102-104- 106. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ060>062-101- 103-105. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ012-013-015- 017>020-027. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ007>010. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>021-026-027. DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ450>453. && $$ DISCUSSION...AKL/Gorse/MJL AVIATION...AKL/MJL MARINE...AKL/MJL  767 FXUS63 KDDC 191107 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 607 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A break in the heat is expected across southwest Kansas on Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures will average between 15 and 20 degrees cooler. Highs will range from the mid 60s to around 70. This cool air will linger through late week. - Widespread beneficial rainfall possible across southwest Kansas mid week. - Temperatures will gradually warm back to more seasonal readings by the start of the weekend with scattered thunderstorms being possible almost each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Gusty north winds developed earlier this evening behind a cold front that was crossing southwest Kansas. At 10 PM, this cold front extended from northwest Oklahoma into south central Kansas as cooler air invades southwest Kansas. These gusty north winds will gradually subside overnight, becoming 15 to 20 mph by daybreak on Tuesday. Wind gusts at or above 35 mph however will be possible at times through 4am. An area of surface high pressure at the surface will cross the Central Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday as a northern branch upper wave crosses the northern plains. This will result in unseasonably cool air settling into southwest Kansas, with highs on Tuesday averaging 15 to 20 degrees cooler compared to Mondays highs. This cool air intrusion will linger across southwest Kansas through mid week as the cold front/stationary boundary remains south of the Oklahoma border. Along with this cooler air settling into southwest Kansas early in the week there will be improving moisture and lift developing north of this boundary (across southwest Kansas) Tuesday night through Thursday. As a result in addition to these cooler temperatures, there will be improving chances for accumulating rainfall mid to late week as western United States upper level trough approaches from the west. Based on the latest ensemble cluster, the best opportunity for widespread accumulating rainfall will occur from Wednesday night through Thursday as the upper trough over the Western United States moves east across the Rockies and out into the Plains. All of the ensemble clusters forecast a greater than 70% chance of accumulating precipitation (>0.1 inch) over the 24hour period ending at 7 PM Thursday. Furthermore 60-70% of these clusters indicated a 60-80% chance of 24hour rainfall totals exceeding a quarter of an inch between 7 PM Wednesday and 7 PM Thursday. Please keep in mind that it is still too early to tell where and how much rainfall will occur from this upcoming event but for what it is worth...if the current ensembles are correct the higher rainfall will be over extreme southwest Kansas. As we look at the upcoming weekend period...conditions will continue to favor an opportunity for scattered thunderstorms almost each day across some portion of southwest Kansas as a series of upper level troughs cross the Central Plains. Currently the chances for widespread accumulating rainfall from these storms are not anticipated. As for temperatures it looks like they will be climbing back to more seasonal readings for the last half of May. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 559 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 North winds behind a strong cold front will gradually decreases in speed down to the 12 to 15 knot range through the late morning. Thereafter, wind direction will gradually become northeasterly and decrease further down to 8 to 11 knots, remaining at this direction and speed range through the remainder of the TAF period. As high pressure and drier air continues to work in from the north, stratus cloud will continue to erode with VFR flight category expected to prevail. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Umscheid  834 FXUS63 KSGF 191108 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 608 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly move through the area this morning before exiting the area this afternoon. Low chances for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm. Localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding remain possible, a Flood Watch is still in effect. - Cooler into mid week, with additional rain chances (60-90%) on Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 This Morning: A strong cold front continues to push through the area early this morning with strong jet dynamics supporting a line of showers and thunderstorms. This line of showers and thunderstorms is slowly dropping southeast into the area, with environment featuring MUCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg in the vicinity of marginal bulk shear around 30 knots. In general, the line has experienced gradual weakening trends over the last several hours, though a lingering strong to severe thunderstorm threat remains through early this morning. In particular, any line segments that able to punch down with the RIJ and bow out. For this reason, the primary hazard with any strong to severe activity will remain damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat remains very low (2-5%). O-3km shear vectors are oriented to the east- northeast at 30 to 35 knots, though low- level CAPE remains absent. Given this environment, bowing segments that become balanced and/or interact with boundaries may support a brief tornado. The tornado threat will rapidly diminish through mid-morning. SPC continues to highlight the potential for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with a Slight Risk (2 of 5) this morning into the early afternoon as the line makes it's way through the area with the front. Further attention turns towards an environment still favorable for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. A corridor of 1 to 3 inches, with localized pockets of 4 to 6 inches occurred on Monday along the Highway 54 corridor. This area will be particularly susceptible to flash flooding this morning and remains in Flood Watch through early afternoon. The environment, which features PWATs around 1.5 to 1.7 inches as a strong 40 to 50 knot LLJ overrides the area. Strong low-level moisture convergence continues to amplify deep convection, that has become oriented west-southwest in areas. This orientation of the line will allow for training of thunderstorms to occur over the same areas into early this morning, with efficient rainfall rates approaching 0.5 to 1.0 inch per a hour. As mentioned earlier, a corridor across west central into central MO is well saturated from rainfall on Monday, with 1 hr FFG on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 inch in locations. 3 hr FFG remains favorable in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. Additional localized flash flooding remains plausible outside of the watch as well, especially in urban areas such as Joplin to Springfield. Rainfall amounts through this morning will range from 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts of 3 to 4 inches. WPC highlights a Slight (2 of 4) to Moderate (3 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall for the flash flooding potential this morning. As we progress through the morning into the afternoon, the front and associated line of showers and thunderstorms should make it's way into far southern MO. Most of the CAMs depict a scenario with little to no redevelopment occuring as the front sinks southeast out of the area. While low confidence, the only area to keep an eye on for potential redevelopment would be along the MO/AR border in south central MO/eastern Ozarks. Winds become northerly behind the frontal passage today, with highs varying from upper 60s (northwest) to lower 80s (southeast). Overcast skies linger behind the frontal passage into tonight, with scattered showers and a few elevated non-severe thunderstorms chances. There remains some uncertainty with the true extent of coverage with the post-frtonal activity. Lows fall into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday: Much cooler on Wednesday behind the frontal passage with highs only reaching into the middle to upper 60s. Scattered rain chances (30-60%) linger through Wednesday morning before dissipating. Thursday-Friday: Return flow with the frontal attempting to lift back north into the area on Thursday and Friday will bring increasing PoPs back into the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances approach 60-90% on Thursday into Friday, though the environment remains unfavorable for severe or widespread flooding. Localized flooding will need to be closely watched given antecedent conditions from early week precipitation. Meanwhile, gradual increasing mid-level heights will support a warming trend as highs return into the 70s late week. This Weekend: Broad southwest flow persists into the weekend, with embedded waves of energy translating through the flow. Persistent rain chances (20-40%) linger through the weekend, with uncertainty in the exact timing and extent of coverage. Highs push back into the upper 70s to lower 80s, right around average for mid to late May. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A system continues to move through the area this morning, with associated showers and thunderstorms. Instances of MVFR to IFR flight conditions accompany this activity as a result of reduced visibilities and ceilings. Visibilities as low as 2 to 4 miles within thunderstorms. Widespread MVFR ceilings move into the area this morning, with heights around 1500 to 2500 feet. Further reductions in ceilings occurs with the frontal passage this afternoon, as IFR ceilings around 700 to 900 feet overspread the area. Winds become northerly behind the front. Additional scattered rain chances persist through the afternoon into the evening. IFR ceilings persist through tonight into early Wednesday morning behind the frontal passage. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073. MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ055>058- 066>071-078>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Perez  826 FXUS65 KPSR 191108 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 408 AM MST Tue May 19 2026 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A broad scale troughing pattern will persist over the western U.S. through the end of the week, with a slow warming trend, but overall near normal temperatures. - Dry conditions, with no threat of rain, and seasonal afternoon breezes are expected through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A broad trough, with a few weak shortwaves swinging through, will persist across the Southwest through Thursday with rather benign Spring-like weather conditions expected. There will be a slow rise in temperatures as 500mb heights slowly rise despite the lingering trough. High temperatures this afternoon will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, with lower deserts forecast to reach the lower 90s. Normal highs this time of year are in the middle-90s, which the lower deserts will return to tomorrow and Thursday as warming steadily continues. Mornings will remain pleasantly cool, mostly in the upper 50s and 60s. Scattered high clouds will be pulled northeastward across the Desert Southwest today through early tomorrow and another weak shortwave from the northwest will bring some high clouds for Thursday. The high clouds will not be too optically thick, so there will still be plenty of sun to go around. Otherwise, very dry conditions can be expected over the next three days, with afternoon humidity levels falling below 15% nearly everywhere, and there is no shot at any rain. Aside from some breezy northerly winds across southeast CA and the Lower Colorado River this morning (gusts up to 20-30 mph), driven by strong pressure rises over NV, winds each day will mostly follow seasonal trends; light winds during the overnight and morning hours and modest upslope breezes in the afternoons with gusts up to 15-25 mph. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The slow warming trend is forecast to continue through Friday and this coming weekend. Global ensemble guidance supports the large- scale synoptic pattern across the west finally evolving out of the current state, with the strong blocking ridge near B.C. Canada giving way/weakening as a strong low traverses across Alaska. This change will result in at least a temporary de-amplification of the pattern across the western CONUS for the weekend and a trend toward positive 500mb height anomalies with brief anticyclonic flow developing over the Desert Southwest. This trend will lead to high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s by Friday and pushing 100 degrees by Sunday - Monday (30-60% odds of >=100). This pattern shift will also allow for some moisture to seep into AZ, from the southeast and with evening gulf surges, as global guidance shows a slow uptrend in PWATs Friday through the weekend. This may end up leading to some AZ high terrain afternoon convection, which is supported by some low-end NBM PoPs this weekend (<25% over eastern AZ mountains). The odds are a little higher Monday with the potential for a weak Pacific low to move inland from the west, but this is about all that can be anticipated this far out. This is climatologically the driest time of year for the AZ and SoCal lower deserts, so it is hard to put much optimism into a long-range precip forecast for the lower deserts. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1100Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No significant weather issues will exist through Wednesday morning under increasing high cirrus decks. Confidence is good that easterly winds will prevail through mid morning before starting to make the usual switch to W/SW. However, an extended period of variable (140v240) or southerly cross runway winds may exist before completing the switch early/mid afternoon. Wind gusts should be limited to around 15kt late afternoon/early evening. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather issues will exist through Wednesday morning under increasing high cirrus decks. Confidence is good that wind directions will oscillate between west and north at KIPL while a persistent northerly component affects KBLH. Wind gusts 20-25 kt may be common at KBLH late morning through late afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... There will be a slow day-to-day warming of temperatures, but overall high temperatures will remain near seasonal normals as the normals also slowly rise. Very dry conditions will also persist through the end of the week with minimum RH values around 5-15% each day. There will be a slight bump up in moisture this weekend, that may lead to some dry thunderstorms in the mountains of eastern AZ, but minimum RHs will still be around 10-15%. Overnight recoveries will be poor to fair, mostly around 25-45%. Seasonal wind patterns are expected through the rest of the week, with afternoon upslope breezes up to 15-25 mph. There will likely be a slight uptick in southerly up-river winds along the Colorado River Valley Friday through this weekend, with a small pattern shift, but afternoon and evening gusts are currently forecast to top out in the 20-30 mph range along the river. There will also likely be a return of evening and early-overnight gulf surge boundaries moving up from the Gulf of California through the AZ deserts. These boundaries will mostly lead to a brief uptick in winds and sudden southwesterly wind shifts. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Benedict LONG TERM...Benedict AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Benedict  282 FXUS64 KHUN 191112 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 612 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Low to medium chances (20-60%) of showers and thunderstorms return tonight. - Medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms then persist each day from Wednesday through much of the weekend. No severe weather is forecast. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 311 AM Tue May 19 2026 Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with only some bands of mid to high cloud cover passing overhead. An upper trough over the Great Lakes will help to inch a cold front a little closer to the area throughout the day. However, the Tennessee Valley region will still remain under the influence of a broad area of high pressure to the south and east of the area off the coast of the Carolinas. Deep southwesterly flow around the western edge of this ridge will help to advect and maintain a warm, moist air mass (as evidenced by highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the 60s). While some moderate destabilization of the boundary layer will take place by this afternoon, model soundings still show at least a weak cap. Without a lifting mechanism (and some subsidence from the ridge), think the the probability of any convection is extremely low and generally less than 5-10%. Some high clouds may begin to increase late in the day, but still think it will feel quite warm/humid afternoon given the progged highs and the dewpoints. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday Night through Thursday Night) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Southwest flow will persist aloft through late week, with subtle shortwaves rippling along the flow during this time. In addition, the aforementioned surface cold front over the Mississippi River Valley will slowly progress southeast over the Tennessee Valley. This feature looks to then meander over the region for several days (through late week). This overall pattern will keep daily chances (50-90%) of showers and storms in the forecast from midweek into the weekend. To put the wet conditions into perspective, model PWATs generally range between 1.5-1.8 inches through the short term period. When compared with Sounding Climatology from Birmingham, these values are right around to just over the 90th percentile (1.6 inches) for May 20th and 21st. Therefore, showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. With daily rain chances through late week, we'll need to keep an eye on which areas receive rainfall and if it's repetitive, which would increase the localized flood risk. Currently, the Weather Prediction Center has most of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee in a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall and this continues through late week. Remember, if you encounter flooded roads, Turn Around Don't Drown! As for the potential for any severe storms, while instability looks to be sufficient, confidence is low in the development of severe storms due to the continuing trend of low bulk shear values by guidance (especially on Wednesday). The main concerns are more likely to be lightning and localized flooding through Thursday. As for temperatures, the increased rain chances will temper values, resulting in highs only reaching the lower to mid 80s by Thursday. Lows will generally remain in the 60s, due to elevated moisture. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026After sunrise, w A more summerlike pattern will persist through the Day 4-7 period as 5h ridging builds farther into the southeast U.S. and eastern Gulf of America. Southwesterly flow will persist northwest of the ridge, maintaining a moist flow of air into the Gulf States, particularly in the lower MS Valley where 2.0+ inch PWs will reside. Although, there is a corridor of slightly lower values in the 1.5-1.8 inch range over AL into eastern and middle TN, with higher values farther east across the FL peninsula through GA and the Carolinas. Multiple weak impulses will lift northeast through this period, with medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms each day (diurnally inflated due to heating). High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s, with lows in the 60s. Dew points will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will be predominant flight category at both terminals through the period. By late this morning winds will become gusty out of the SSW between 10-20 kts, before weakening to under 10 kts after sunset. Clouds will gradually increase through the day ahead of an approaching front. Have also added a PROB30 to highlight a low chance of -TSRA at KMSL after 06z early Wednesday morning. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...AMP.24  296 FXUS64 KLZK 191112 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 612 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 -Line of showers/thunderstorms to move southeast through the state today into this evening -Threat for seeing severe weather with this line of thunderstorms will be limited by instability...though some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Damaging winds will be primary threat -Locally heavy rainfall may lead to an isolated flash flood threat today -Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 All quiet across AR so far early this Tue morning...with some breezy SRLY winds noted. Temps remain warm in the 70s for most areas...with dewpts also in the 60s and 70s. A line of TSRA is ongoing across NRN OK into SERN KS and WRN MO...slowly moving SE over time. This line of convention will be the primary wx story through this Tue afternoon/evening. Expect this line of convection to drop SE into the state sometime near sunrise...eventually dropping SE through the state by late this afternoon/early evening. The overall threat for SVR convection with this line as it moves SE will be limited by instability...which forecast instability is generally lacking. SHR is also limited during the daylight hrs...with the highest 0-3 km SRH this morning just ahead of the line over NWRN sections. While this doesn't mean organized SVR Wx won't happen...just means the potential will be limited...and likely isolated in nature. If SVR convection were to develop...damaging winds look to be the primary threat...with some marginally SVR hail possible also. The overall tornado threat looks to remain low...and may be limited to far NWRN sections during the morning hrs when the SRH is best. However...this is also when CIN will also be elevated...which should help keep that tornado threat low. Some locally heavy rainfall may be seen as this line of convection drops slowly SE over time. While most of this rainfall will be welcome given the ongoing drought conditions...there could be a few isolated spots see enough rainfall that could create an isolated flash flood threat. Beyond this evening...chances for precip do decrease overnight into Wed morning. However...an unsettled pattern will continue as SW flow aloft will remain SW over the region into early next week. Upper waves will pass over the state...which will create some forcing for convection generally each day through the week and through the weekend. While the threat for organized SVR Wx looks low at this time...late May climatology suggest some SVR threat may be possible each day. When...where...and what SVR threat may exist will depend on day to day specifics regarding the stability and SHR. As a result...the threat should remain uncertain for now. The threat for seeing heavy rainfall for the next 4-7 days may increase given multiple rounds of rainfall possible...but ongoing drought conditions and exact placement of heaviest rainfall through the next week keep the threat for flash flooding uncertain at this time as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front and a broken line of thunderstorms will slowly move S/SE across the state throughout the day. Ahead of this activity, MVFR cigs will be fairly widespread through the morning hours. As TS activity progresses through, both cigs/vsby are expected to be significantly reduced at times. Overall movement is expected to be slow and it will take a long time for precip to make it to KLLQ. Behind the front and after the heavier rain/TS activity moves through,MVFR/IFR conditions will persist through the end of the period. Sfc winds will be out of the south around 10 kts with occasional higher gusts until the front moves through. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 83 66 75 62 / 80 50 60 40 Camden AR 90 68 82 65 / 80 60 70 60 Harrison AR 77 61 70 59 / 90 70 50 30 Hot Springs AR 86 67 80 64 / 90 40 60 50 Little Rock AR 88 67 79 63 / 80 50 70 50 Monticello AR 91 69 82 67 / 70 80 80 60 Mount Ida AR 83 67 79 66 / 90 40 70 50 Mountain Home AR 78 61 71 58 / 90 60 50 30 Newport AR 85 68 77 62 / 70 60 70 40 Pine Bluff AR 91 68 80 65 / 80 50 70 50 Russellville AR 84 66 78 63 / 90 50 60 40 Searcy AR 86 66 78 61 / 70 50 70 40 Stuttgart AR 90 69 80 66 / 80 50 70 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...62 AVIATION...67  333 FXUS65 KTFX 191113 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 513 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of the region. - More widespread precipitation is expected on Wednesday through Thursday. - Temperatures will gradually warm through the week with the warmest temperatures expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 504 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026/ - Meteorological Overview After a cool start to the morning, temperatures will warm modestly into the 50s and 60s. Lingering moisture on the backside of the upper-level trough combined with modest instability will allow for pop-up showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon today. On Wednesday another upper-level trough will arrive bringing a chance for widespread wetting precipitation to the region. Snow will be generally confined to locations above 7,000 feet with the rest of the lower elevations seeing primarily rain through the event. As the upper-level trough starts to slowly exit the area towards the end of the week, temperatures will gradually start to warm up as upper-level ridging begins building over the western CONUS through the weekend. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: For today, hi-res models were showing pretty scattered 15-30% chances for precipitation across the region. In general, most locations will remain dry throughout the day except for where these pop-up showers end up developing. The highest chances for thunderstorm activity will be across North-Central Montana with any precipitation in Central and Southwest Montana expected to be more stratiform in nature. There is still good agreement for widespread wetting rains. The heaviest amounts are currently expected along a stretch from the Northern Rockies down through Central Montana including Great Falls and Helena into Lewistown. Probabilities of more than 0.25" of precipitation are currently sitting at 60-80% with a 20-40% chance of 0.5" or more. While precipitation amounts across the remainder of North-Central and Southwest Montana are not expected to be quite as high there is still at least a 40% chance for a tenth of an inch or more. -thor && .AVIATION... 19/12Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail throughout the duration of the 1912/2012 TAF period; however, widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop between 16-19z and persist through 03-06z Wednesday across Southwest through North Central Montana. Main impact from any shower or storm will be erratic winds and brief reductions in CIGS to low-VFR, along with mountain obscuration. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 64 40 58 38 / 40 20 80 70 CTB 62 38 55 34 / 20 10 80 40 HLN 65 38 64 38 / 20 20 60 90 BZN 62 34 63 35 / 10 20 40 90 WYS 54 26 57 30 / 10 10 40 80 DLN 61 34 62 35 / 10 20 20 70 HVR 68 40 62 36 / 30 30 50 10 LWT 60 36 58 35 / 30 20 80 80 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  356 FXUS63 KFGF 191113 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 613 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Overnight temperatures could drop into the low to mid 30s west of the Red River Valley tonight, and a frost advisory is in effect. Temperatures drop again to near freezing across all of eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...Synopsis... Large upper trough continues over the Rockies, with a lead shortwave starting to move through the southwest flow into SD. This shortwave is already bringing some light rain showers starting to move in around the Valley City area. The northern portion of the main upper trough will move into the Plains tonight and then off into Ontario tomorrow, with southern vorticity lobe still down near UT and NV. The northern shortwave moving through should help push high pressure down into the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds return quickly back to the south on Wednesday under southwesterly flow aloft. The split trough remains over the western CONUS Thursday, but starts to move out into the Plains Friday into Saturday. A lot of variation in the ensemble members into how exactly the trough comes out and if there is another shortwave Sunday. Blended solution of some precipitation chances and temperatures rising above seasonal averages by Sunday and Monday continues to seem reasonable. ...Rain chances tonight... CAMs and global models in pretty good agreement on showers currently over the James River Valley spreading northeastward through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. The bulk of the rain will be exiting out of our eastern counties between midnight and 6 AM, although there will be some lingering light showers/drizzle for a while after. All but portions of the Devils Lake Basin have high probability of seeing at least 0.01 of rain, and there is a 50 to 80 percent probability of at least 0.10 inches mainly in southeastern ND into western MN. ...Temperatures into the 30s tonight... Continued cold air advection pushes 850mb and even 925mb temps in some areas down below 0 C tonight. While skies will remain cloudy and there will be at least a little bit of mixing from northwesterly winds, temperatures look quite cold by tomorrow morning. NBM has probabilities 80 percent and higher for temperatures to get below 36 degrees, and even the less bullish HREF has 40 to 50 percent. With the clouds and wind do not think we will get down as low as the base NBM had us, so tweaked lows up a bit. We should stay above 32, but even with not much actual frost occurring the 33 to 36 degree range west of the Red River Valley could cause some issues to sensitive plants. Went ahead and matched neighbors for a frost advisory tonight. It does look to clear out and go light for winds tomorrow night, so better chances for freeze and frost look likely Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Aviation conditions will improve through the day today as ceilings slowly lift and skies eventually clear out towards the evening. Expect generally IFR to MVFR ceilings this morning and afternoon with intermittent drizzle for all TAF sites, with the highest chances at GFK/TVF/BJI for more sustained precipitation. This will bring visibilities to 1-4SM at times, particularly this morning. Conditions will begin to dry out this afternoon with cloud cover becoming lower and ceilings gradually lifting. However, cloud decks remain expected to at least be below 5000 feet through 00z. Clear skies will eventually settle in towards the evening and overnight hours giving way to VFR conditions. Winds will remain northerly through the day today, with gust potential increasing towards the afternoon hours, particularly in areas that see more sun. These will begin to diminish towards 00z and become generally light and variable after sunset through the end of the TAF period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006-007-014- 015-024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Perroux  372 FXUS63 KICT 191114 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 614 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering spotty showers/thunderstorms this morning, but severe weather unlikely. Hit-or-miss shower/storm chances continue tonight over southeast, but severe weather once again unlikely. - Below average temperatures Tuesday through Thursday, warming trend Friday and beyond. - Periodic off-and-on showers/thunderstorms Wednesday evening through the weekend, but especially Wednesday night through Friday night. Widespread severe weather unlikely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: PREDAWN HOURS--THIS MORNING...Line of thunderstorms continues to advance east-southeast, and will exit far southeast KS before sunrise. While isolated pockets of 50-60 mph winds remain possible, widespread severe weather is no longer expected. Further west-northwest in back of this line of storms over portions of central, eastern, and southern Kansas, persistent weak to modest lift in the vicinity of the 850-700mb trough/moist axis should support spotty hit-or-miss showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms through this morning. This activity will likely not be widespread, and marginal instability will prevent strong or severe storms or heavy rain. TONIGHT--EARLY TUESDAY...Should see isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms tonight through early Tuesday over far southeast KS, underneath the right entrance region of the upper jet, and in vicinity of the persistent 850-700mb trough/moist axis. Marginal instability will prevent strong/severe storms or widespread heavy rainfall. WEDNESDAY EVENING--WEEKEND...A train of shortwaves traversing Mid- America will support periodic on-and-off shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday evening through the weekend, but probably most widespread Wednesday night through Friday night. While a few strong storms and pockets of heavy rainfall are possible, marginal instability combined with relatively weak shear and forcing should preclude widespread chances for severe weather and heavy rainfall, although any rainfall will be beneficial given the steadily worsening drought conditions the past month or two. TEMPERATURES: Below average temperatures are likely today through Thursday, as Canadian high pressure exerts its influence on Mid-America, along with periodic cloud cover and precipitation. Daytime highs mostly in the 60s are expected, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. As we head into Friday and beyond, a warming trend back to above average temperatures is expected, as heights/thickness gradually increase over the Heartland. Widespread daytime highs in the 80s are probable by Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 557 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Lingering instability and lift should support spotty hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms over mainly southeast Kansas this morning, possibly lingering into the afternoon. This hit-or-miss activity is expected to return tonight over far southeast Kansas. In all instances, severe weather is not expected. Otherwise, mostly MVFR ceilings (with localized IFR ceilings) will persist across the region this morning, gradually turning VFR from west to east this afternoon and evening. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ADK  405 FXUS64 KBRO 191115 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 615 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1106 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Key Messages: * Day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms is expected through next weekend and possibly beyond amid a major shift in the weather pattern. * Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible through next weekend. * Hot and humid conditions will take place once again on Tuesday; maximum heat indices between 105-111F degrees will result in widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk. * A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect till 9 AM CDT Tuesday; a High Risk for Rip Currents is also in effect through at least Tuesday evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1106 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Hot temperatures featuring Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk through Tuesday (possibly into Wednesday), and an increasingly unsettled weather pattern punctuating a significant pattern change from dry to wet remains to be the two main weather headlines through the forecast period. ...ACTIVE/WET WEATHER DEVELOPS THIS WEEK; MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE... Global computer and AI/ML models/ensembles continue to advertise a significant pattern change from dry to wet beginning this week. A split-flow 500 mb pattern featuring what will become an increasingly active and persistent southwest flow aloft sub-tropical jet or southern branch jet stream is in place. This will serve as a conduit for multiple impulses/perturbations tracking over the region over the next several days. Later in the week through next weekend, there are signs that mid-upper troughing along with multiple impulses/perturbations will undercut high pressure/ridging aloft. Closer to the sfc, a frontal boundary will sag southward across the U.S. before stalling and meandering to our north across the southern Plains. A better than normal jet structure will be in place through this week. Additionally, southerly flow near the sfc will yield a pool of deep tropical moisture helping to increase the atmospheric water content over the region through the week ahead. This is justified with sample maximum precipitable water (PWAT) values between 1.80-2.50 inches, some 1-3 STDEVs above normal and above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology for mid to late May. Furthermore, high instability values will be present through this week with steep mid level lapse rates between 6.5-8.0 C/km, SBCAPE values between 2,000-4,000 J/kg, MLCAPE values between 1,000- 2,000 J/kg, a moderately to very unstable atmosphere with Showalter values ranging between -2 and -6. All in all, the combination of a favorable mid-upper level 500 mb steering pattern, favorable jet stream dynamics, high atmospheric moisture content, and high instability will support a noticeable change to a wetter/active weather pattern this week and possibly beyond. This includes incessant day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms through this week, and maybe through the remainder of May. The best chances for rain this week will be later in the week into next weekend. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible given the atmospheric and forcing ingredients highlighted above. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to have the northwestern half of our area under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. This includes all of Zapata and Jim Hogg Counties, and most of Brooks and Starr Counties in it's latest SWODY2. Given the high atmospheric moisture content available, heavy rainfall and instances of flooding is possible through the week, especially later in the week. This is especially true for slow moving thunderstorms that repeatedly track over the same areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) continues to have the entire forecast area or all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall in it's Day 4 (Thursday) and Day 5 (Friday) ERO. Through tonight, a thundershower or two is possible. Latest radar scans reveal a blossoming thunderstorm moving northeast off the slopes of the Sierra Madre with batches of showers further to the north and west. Will have to monitor trends through tonight. For now, we have low (20%) chance PoPs across much of the area. Should the thunderstorm to our southwest off the Sierra madre hold together, we may need to bump PoPs later tonight. For Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, several hi-res CAM guidances continue to advertise a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms or MCS originating from central Texas and advancing southward through Deep South Texas late Tuesday into Wednesday between midnight and 9 AM Wednesday morning. Currently, we have low-medium (20-50%) chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This may need bumping up depending on things evolve. Again the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday, currently favoring Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and Brooks Counties. Wednesday night through the early parts of next week, additional precipitation chances exists. During this timeframe, we could see another one or two squall lines or MCSs with a heavy rainfall threat move through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Wednesday night-Thursday night, we have 30-70% chances for showers and thunderstorms over the region. Friday night through Saturday night, we have widespread categorical chances ranging between 50-75%. Sunday through Monday, there's a 40-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region. Finally, Monday night through Tuesday night, there will be low chances ranging between 20-30%. Through Saturday, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) or rainfall amounts are expected to range between 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The rain to come will certainly prove to be beneficial, helping to further improve the D1 (Moderate) to D2 (Severe) Drought status across the region. ...ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK... The other weather headline through Tuesday will be the heat! Global forecast models/ensembles continue to depict a sharp 588-591 dam sub- tropical heat ridge over the region. This feature will result in another day of hotter than normal temperatures on Tuesday, and maybe even extending into Wednesday. Similar to today, forecast high temperatures for Tuesday are expected to be in the mid 90s to lower 100s with the hottest temps west of IH-69C/US-281. Dewpoints in the mid 70s will result in max heat indices or apparent temperature values climbing to between 105-111F degrees on Tuesday. These values will once again yield Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk. Cloud over will be a factor in these temperatures being realized. By Wednesday, the aforementioned heat ridge relaxes which should result in a slightly cooler day. Shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday as well as cloud cover could also play a role in the slightly lower temperatures from Monday and Tuesday. Nonetheless, it will be another warmer than normal day with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. With heat indices ranging between 100-108F degrees, Heat Risk scores will be mainly fall in the Moderate (Level 2 of 4) category over the region on Wednesday. Thursday through next Tuesday, high temperatures will range between the upper 80s to lower 90s. This largely will be attributed to the shower and thunderstorm chances during this timeframe. Tonight through Tuesday night, overnight lows are progged to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wednesday night through next Sunday night, overnight lows are expected to be mainly in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cloud deck moving north will lift through the morning, returning primarily VFR through the afternoon. SCT to OVC cloud cover should remain at VFR levels, but brief drops to MVFR are possible. Southeasterly winds will become gustier to around 25 kts this morning and persist into the evening. MVFR returns around sunset. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Latest hi res guidance suggests a line of thunderstorms from the north will approach the RGV tonight, but there is uncertainty on whether the line can be sustained this far south. Most likely timing would be in the final hours of the current 12Z TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1106 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect till 9 AM CDT Tuesday due to residual elevated wave heights. Outside of the threat for showers and thunderstorms, Tuesday through Wednesday, adverse (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions are likely. Again, outside of the threat for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through next Monday, marine conditions are expected to improve with moderate seas and low to moderate winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 94 81 93 80 / 10 10 20 0 HARLINGEN 96 79 94 77 / 10 20 20 0 MCALLEN 97 80 95 79 / 10 20 20 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 78 95 76 / 10 30 30 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 85 81 / 10 10 20 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 81 91 79 / 10 10 20 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...69-HK  361 FXUS64 KMOB 191113 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 613 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - A HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect for all area beaches today. - Rain chances increase by mid to late next week, especially over the western half of the forecast area. - Localized patchy fog will be possible this morning and again late tonight into Wednesday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Overall the forecast remains on track. Current observations do show patchy fog has developed across most of the southern half of the area. Some very localized dense fog is possible this morning; however, coverage and duration does not seem to be enough to warrant a advisory at this time. Anyone commuting or traveling this morning should continue to use caution where fog has formed. BB-8 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 An isolated shower or storm is possible today mainly across south-central Alabama with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday. Thursday isolated to scattered rain and storm chances shift west of I-65, becoming scattered to locally numerous west of the I-65 corridor Friday. Best chances Friday will likely remain confined to southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. As we head into the weekend, rain chances remain elevated as a series of weak shortwaves round the northern periphery of upper ridging with scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms possible. Patchy fog can't be ruled out through this morning and again Wednesday morning, with a few spots potentially seeing locally dense fog. Better chances for fog appear to be Wednesday morning across the area. Any fog will develop late into the overnight hours before lifting fairly quickly after sunrise. Outside of the rain chances, temperatures will be warm near or just above normal for this time of year on both highs and lows throughout the week and into the weekend. Highs generally fall in the 85 to 90 range, with some localized lower 90's possible any given day. Lows will remain in the upper 60's to lower 70's for most locations each night through the weekend. A High risk of rip currents today becomes a Moderate risk Wednesday. A Low to Moderate risk of rip currents will exist Thursday into Friday. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 LIFR to IFR visbys and ceilings have developed across most of the area this morning. Conditions should improve quickly this morning returning to MVFR then VFR by late morning. VFR conditions should persist with light southeasterly winds into the overnight tonight. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through Saturday. Seas will build slightly through tonight then diminish Wednesday into Thursday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 89 71 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 86 73 87 73 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 82 73 83 72 / 0 0 10 0 Evergreen 91 68 90 67 / 10 10 20 10 Waynesboro 90 70 90 69 / 10 10 30 20 Camden 91 70 90 68 / 0 10 10 20 Crestview 91 70 90 68 / 10 0 30 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  475 FXUS64 KLUB 191116 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 616 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 537 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Much cooler Tuesday as a cold front passes through during the morning hours with a small chance for an isolated storm across the Rolling Plains. - Cooler and wetter conditions from mid to late week with a chance for heavy rainfall overnight Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current surface observations late this evening analyze the previously stalled front over the northern Texas Panhandle, where it has resumed its southward progression over the last hour. This FROPA is expected to make it's way into the far southern Texas Panhandle shortly after midnight, around the 06Z to 07Z timeframe. Behind the front, winds will shift out of the north-northeast where they may briefly become breezy around 30 to 40 mph. Additionally, there remains a slim window of opportunity for an isolated thunderstorm to develop along the frontal boundary as it progresses southward through the overnight period. This will be primarily across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains, where moisture will be maximized with the dryline slowly retreating westward. However, confidence remains a bit low in regards to precipitaion overnight with models all over the place with timing and location, if any storms at all develop. If they do, convergence along the frontal boundary along with steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km and bulk shear magnitudes around 40 knots would suggest the potential for large hail with any storm that develops. Precipitation chances will wane by daybreak Tuesday, thereafter mostly dry conditions are expected. As the front makes its way through the FA, post-frontal northerly winds will develop and last through much of the morning. Becoming easterly by Tuesday afternoon as a surface low develops over central New Mexico. With the post frontal airmass in place and upslope component to the wind a much cooler day is expected with highs in the 70s expected. Highs will vary across the region, and will remain dependent on the timing of the FROPA. NBM highs seem a bit to warm across our southern zones so opted for a blend of NBM 25th percentile to reflect the FROPA moving through shortly after daybreak. Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances may exists late Tuesday afternoon and evening as the stalled FROPA to our south retreats back north late in the day. Compared to this time yesterday, most guidance has backed off on this scenario. Nonetheless, depending on how far north the boundary retreats will play a factor in the potential for convective initiation. Otherwise, a quiet night is expected for much of the region with cooler overnight temperatures across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle in the mid 40s to mid 50s while off the Caprock expect lows in the 60s thanks to increasing moisture and the potential for low stratus. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The main theme of the extended forecast package will be the daily afternoon chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through the weekend. Broad large scale troughing will remain established over portions of the western CONUS through the period, while the associated parent trough remains displaced to the north digging into the Canadian Provinces. Embedded perturbations tracking through the main flow out ahead of the base of the trough over the Desert Southwest are expected to translate through the region each day from mid to late week this week. Meanwhile off to our east, an upper level ridge will remain overspread much of the southeastern CONUS. This synoptic setup will support southwest flow aloft initially, before we see a more westerly regime set-up by late Wednesday in response to the upper low digging south into portions of the Intermountain West. This more zonal flow aloft will likely limit subtropical moisture transport into the region, with recent guidance placing the bulk of the moisture plume east of the area. This is also reflected in both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble runs with the QPF footprint favoring higher precipitation totals off to our east. Nonetheless, the upslope component to the surface winds with relatively easterly flow will work to transport moisture in from the Gulf allowing for rich low-level moisture to advect into the region. Dewpoints are progged in the 50s and 60s, with mid to upper 60 dewpoints positioned across the southeastern Rolling Plains where we expect the best moisture to be positioned. Similar to the m-d to upper level moisture, the better forcing for ascent looks to remain confined to a pair of H5 jet maximas that are forecasted to remain north and south of the region. Therefore, precipitation chances across the area will be dependent on the perturbations translating through the main flow and interacting with the moisture already in place. Ensembles continue to hint at the best opportunity for shower and thunderstorm activity being late Wednesday into Thursday morning, when the strongest vorticity max moves through the northern Texas Panhandle and West Texas region and taps into the plentiful moisture. If showers and thunderstorms are able to develop, there is a chance for heavy rainfall across portions of the region, primarily our southern counties, where we find PWATs around 1.25" to 1.50" which is well above the 90th percentile seasonal normal for this time of year. This will likely be the main severe threat with activity, although small hail cannot be ruled out given modest MLLR around 7 to 8 C/km and MUCAPE values around 1500-1700J/kg. Expect a similar set up each afternoon Thursday through Saturday as perturbations track through the region and attempt to tap in to the moisture in place across the region. As for temperatures, Tuesday's cold front will provide the much needed relief from the absurdly warm temperatures we saw last week and this past weekend. Easterly winds will remain in place as well through much of the week and with little to no change in heights and thickness values we can expect highs in the 70s to hold through at least Friday, before we begin to see a subtle warm up back in the 80s through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Borderline VFR/MVFR CIGs are expected to clear to VFR around 15-17Z with VFR conditions prevailing through 06Z. MVFR to possible IFR CIGs will move over the terminals near the end of this TAF cycle. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...51  513 FXUS65 KFGZ 191118 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 418 AM MST Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are in store for much of the week, along with typical afternoon breezes. && .DISCUSSION...Quasi-zonal flow largely remains in control through much of this week. As a result, gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are expected through at least at least Saturday. Winds look to generally remain light, however weak troughing will keep some typical spring-time afternoon breezes (20-30 mph) over the higher terrain. A weak low looks to eject off the Pacific into the southwest early next week. Ensemble guidance continues to signal towards an increase in PWATs from the resulting increase in moisture advection into Arizona. As of now, a few isolated afternoon showers and possibly thunderstorms look probable over the White Mountains this weekend, then potentially spreading to more of the higher terrain on Monday. Surface moisture at this point still looks fairly minimal, so much of the activity at this time looks to be high-based in nature. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 19/12Z through Wednesday 20/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds W/SW 5-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts before 03Z, then becoming VRB 5-10 kts. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 20/12Z through Friday 22/12Z...VFR conditions with W/SW winds 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts each day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Gradually turning warmer. Winds west/southwest 10-15 mph, with occasional afternoon gusts of 20-30 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% today, falling to 5- 15% on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday....Continued dry conditions with warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  641 FXUS63 KABR 191120 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 620 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost/Freeze expected tonight/Wednesday morning (28 to 33 degrees) between the Missouri valley region east into the Sisseton hills region. - Another round of moisture mainly Friday. Lower and upper range for moisture is just a few hundredths to a 1/2 inch. - Turning warmer late weekend/early next week, about 10 to 20 degrees above normal (Highs: 80s to near 90). && .UPDATE... Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 UPDATE for 12Z Aviation discussion. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Will leave the frost advisory in place though temperatures still in the low 40s/upper 30s with cloud cover and mid/upper 30 dewpoints, and northwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 mph making frost highly unlikely expect in the most protected/drainage prone areas. Focus for freeze conditions continues tonight with high pressure shifted a little east in comparison to previous forecasts, centered over the Sisseton hills region. This still makes us ground zero for a frost/freeze. From the Missouri river and north of highway 14 NBM temperatures are still down around 30F. NBM upper bound (90th) even has lows in the low/mid 30s so at a minimum a frost. And the NBM has been consistent, leaving little doubt that the area will experience these cold temperatures and related impacts. Additionally, daytime heating still showing up in NAM/GFS/RRFS BUFKIT profiles with shallow CAPE between 2 to 3kft up to about 6kft. Cloud cover dissipates with loss of daytime heating. Evening temperatures are only expected to top mid 50s. Did bring back the mention of sprinkles as well. Aside from frost, some evidence for fog under the high given recent moisture and cool temperatures/lack of mixing. Focus shifts to additional rain chances late Thursday through Friday with southwest flow and then a negatively tilted shortwave. After that flow becomes more zonal and then another trough sets up out west for early next week. This flow regime results in milder temperature trends with NAEFS 850mb temperatures increase to a standard deviation above climo. NBM highs Sun-Tues some 10 to 20F above climo, though starting Friday the NBM 25th/75th range in temperatures begins to expand to 7 to 10 degrees suggesting lower confidence. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR to MVFR ceilings remain over the area, with pockets of clearing. This is resulting in larger TEMPO groups for the first few hours. Expect VFR ceilings at all locations by around 19Z, holding out longest at ATY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for SDZ003>005-009-010-015-016-033>035-045. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ004>011-016>023-034>037-051. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...20 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06  745 FXUS63 KMKX 191121 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 621 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 30 percent chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms with the cold frontal passage today. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. - Cool and drier weather then returns for midweek. - Rain chances return Friday into Friday night(40-60%), followed by a gradual warming trend Saturday into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 558 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A few showers and rumbles of thunder may occur ahead of a cold front that is expected to move through early this afternoon. Otherwise expect breezy southwest winds ahead of the cold front, and then breezy west to northwest winds into this evening behind the front. Highs will range from the mid 60s in the west where the front will move through sooner, to highs in the low to mid 70s in SE WI where the front will move through later in the day. CMiller && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1134 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tonight through Thursday night: The decaying MCS is now moving into sw WI and will continue to encounter much greater MLCIN and high LFCs. However, still expect fairly widespread showers and sct storms to move across all of srn WI during the early morning hours as a sswly low level jet of 40 kts increases warm, moist advection and boosts elevated CAPE to 1000-2000 J/KG. Wind gusts and small hail will be the main concerns. A wave of low pressure along the stationary front from central IA to ern MN will track newd to near Lake Superior by 12Z Tue. The low will then track ewd into Quebec during the day with its trailing cold front moving across srn WI Tue AM into the early afternoon. Moist low levels and marginal instability could result in a broken line of showers and isold storms along the front but no severe wx is anticipated. Nwly winds and cold advection will continue into Tue nt with low temps falling into the lower to middle 40s. High pressure will then move from MN to the nrn Great Lakes on Wed and remain there into Thu. Nely sfc winds and a relatively cool air mass will reside over srn WI with high temps in the 50s over ern WI and lower 60s over south central WI. A return of warm advection will bring 20 percent chances for showers west of Madison Thu nt. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 1134 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Friday through Monday: Low pressure ejects from the Southern Plains on Friday, with continued model discrepancies as to its progression. Canadian and Euro indicate a more southerly track of a single low pressure system bringing widespread rain and storms to southern Wisconsin throughout the day along the northern side of the low, while the GFS prefers a split pattern with one portion of the energy progressing through the lower Mississippi Valley and the other following the jet stream into Minnesota and brings a warm front with rain and storms into southern Wisconsin. Regardless of solution, probabilities of seeing rainfall have increased, so kept likely PoPs (50-65%) in the forecast for Friday afternoon into Friday night. Models also are inclined to agree that precipitation will taper off into Saturday as the warm front lifts north or the low pressure system exits to the east. Generally unsettled weather looks to develop Sunday through Tuesday as broad 500 mb troughing develops across the Upper Midwest, bringing multiple shortwaves through the region. As the upper level troughing develops, high pressure building in the Plains will bring increasing temperatures through the weekend into early next week. Monday and Tuesday temperatures could return to the mid-80s. However, weak, generally southeasterly winds will allow for Lake Michigan influence on temperatures in the easternmost counties. MH && .AVIATION... Issued 621 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Expect cigs to drop to IFR and MVFR everywhere through the morning hours as a cold front pushes into the area. Breezy southwest winds are expected ahead of the front, with breezy west to northwest winds then expected behind the front late this afternoon into tonight. Ceilings should lift late this afternoon and then disperse tonight as skies clear as high pressure works into the region. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 1134 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect tonight through Tuesday morning for the north half of the lake as relatively mild and humid air flows over the cold lake waters. Otherwise modest to breezy southerly winds will develop tonight and last into early Tuesday afternoon, then followed by the passage of a cold front. Winds will shift to northwesterly with the cold frontal passage and remain a bit breezy. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected over the central and southern portion of the lake late tonight into Tuesday. High pressure around 30.4 inches will then move into the northern Great Lakes for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Light to modest north to northeast winds can be expected. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor from early morning Tuesday into the afternoon for breezy southwest winds. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 PM Tuesday. Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868 until noon Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  602 FXUS64 KAMA 191120 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 620 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Frontal passage tonight will bring breezy winds and a directional shift from SW to N. - Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning as early as Wednesday and extending through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The cold front is making its way through the northern CWA, and pushing through about 30 minutes to an hour quicker than model guidance suggested. This front will bring a shift from WSW winds to N winds, with sustained speeds of 25-30 MPH and gusts up to 35-40 MPH. Although the front will bring with it breezy winds, relative humidities on the back side of the front will increase. Current observations show the jump from single digit RH's to 50-70%, with a delay of about 20 minutes between the wind shift and beneficial RH's arriving. Tonight, the front will continue to push south through the Panhandles, and is expected to reach Amarillo around 11 PM to 12 AM. Winds will remain breezy behind the front until Tuesday late morning/afternoon, where an easterly wind shift and lacking upper- level support will allow wind speeds to decrease. High temperatures for Tuesday will fall slightly below seasonal averages, ranging from the high 60's in the NW CWA to high 70's in the southern CWA. Cloud cover is expected to build into the Panhandles Tuesday night thanks to easterly flow bringing low-level moisture. The SE corner of our CWA could see some spotty rain showers Tuesday night from precipitation backbuilding along the cold front, however, as of now chances are quite low (around 10%) that it reaches that far. Although precipitation is expected Wednesday, the current uncertainty lies in cloud cover throughout the day. If upsloping flow is enough forcing, steep lapse rates to our west could allow for precipitation to make it into our CWA. However, widespread cloud cover could dampen instability in an already recovering environment, which is currently our failure point for Wednesday. While POPs currently reflect 50-60% chances CWA-wide, more certainty in timing and intensity will be gained as CAMs start to reach the event. Ferguson && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Further surface low developments beneath the upper-level SW flow bring the Panhandles persistent rain chances every afternoon/evening until Saturday. Shortwave troughs could intermittently provide upper- level support to upsloping flow and weak surface lows. Given this would provide This could provide just enough bulk-shear over decent instability (consistently around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) to provide the area with a low-end severe threat for any of those days in that period. Long-range model guidance is pointing toward a weak frontal passage on Saturday, that could knock down temperatures into next weekend as well. Ferguson && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A brief window of MVFR cigs for KAMA and potentially KGUY for the first hour or so of the 12Z TAF period before all sites return to VFR levels around 14-15Z. VFR cigs will then return for all TAF sites through about 08-09Z where MVFR cigs then will likely return to all TAF sites and remain throughout the rest of the TAF period. Winds will start northerly at 15-25 kts, becoming northeasterly after 17-18Z at 10-20 kts, and then easterly past 00Z to the end of the TAF period at 5-15 kts. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...29  537 FXUS64 KOUN 191119 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 619 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Cool, below normal temperatures today through Thursday. Near normal temperatures will return by the end of the week through early next week. - Shower and storm chances continue Wednesday through early next week. A few strong storms may be possible. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front is expected to push southward through Oklahoma overnight into Tuesday morning. Storms have already developed along the front in south central Kansas and will continue to build westward along the boundary into northern Oklahoma through the early morning hours. Storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards. Depending on the evolution/speed of the frontal boundary, there is a chance a few embedded circulations could occur and therefore a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Chances remain very low, but not zero for a tornado to occur. As the front progresses southward through Tuesday morning, the threat for severe weather may decrease with flooding, along with gusty winds and small hail becoming the primary hazards. The cold front should be through the forecast area by late Tuesday morning with most of the shower and storm activity ending by the early afternoon hours. However, if they front slows down and/or stalls, there is a chance that a few strong to severe updrafts could develop if temperatures have a chance to warm ahead of the line. Based on current trends, there is a lower chance for this slower front solution. Following the front, temperatures will be nearly 20-25 degrees cooler than yesterday with highs in the 60s to 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 There is some signal for isentropic showers and storms late Tuesday evening across western north Texas and into southern and central Oklahoma. These elevated storms could become strong with gusty winds and small hail. Wednesday and Thursday will feature increasing shower and storm chances thanks to several disturbances in the southwesterly flow aloft coupled with the continued presence of the subtropical jet. Temperature are expected to remain below normal in the 70s through mid-week with light east southeast surface winds. The potential for severe storms remains low, but a few strong storms with gusty winds and hail may be possible. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A subtropical jet, with perturbations within the broader mid-level flow, will overspread the southern Plains through next weekend. This continuous mid-level flow will support daily thunderstorm chances through the weekend across our area. At this time, there is low confidence in severe weather during this timeframe. Temperatures will continue to be closer to seasonable through early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread southeast near a cold front moving through the area. The southwest end of the line will affect areas near KLAW and KSPS with storms likely moving into KDUA later this morning. MVFR ceilings are widespread across the area and will persist into today across most of the area. With gusty north/northwest winds behind the cold front this morning, there will be some non-convective low-level wind shear as southwest winds are expected above the frontal surface. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 64 54 71 58 / 50 50 20 60 Hobart OK 70 53 74 57 / 20 40 20 80Wichita Falls TX 74 57 77 60 / 80 50 20 70 Gage OK 70 46 70 52 / 0 10 20 80 Ponca City OK 64 52 70 56 / 30 40 10 60 Durant OK 80 64 79 65 / 90 50 40 60 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...26  538 FXUS65 KCYS 191119 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 520 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near record cold Monday and Monday night will lead to widespread freezing temperatures, which may damage sensitive vegetation and outdoor irrigation systems. - Slow warming trend by the mid to late week with temperatures near normal by Thursday and Friday. Numerous showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms each day, but mostly Thursday and Friday. - Above average temperatures and pleasant weather expected for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 215 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Relatively quiet early this morning after an eventful Sunday and Monday. Additional storm total snow amounts are trickling in and there are some impressive totals across the mountains and adjacent valleys. Several reports of 12 to 18 inches from south of Rawlins over towards Rock River. The Snowy Range lived up to its name during this event with a few SNOTEL sites reporting over 3 feet of snow and nearly 3 inches of SWE! Accumulating snow has ended across the area with only a few flurries detected on radar. Main forecast concern today and tonight will be the very cold temperatures. Current observations across the area show temperatures in the middle 20s to low 30s. Portions of the area have struggling with cloud cover and/or gusty winds, but both are expected to subside over the next several hours. Kept low temperatures as is with Freeze Warnings in effect. There is also the potential for fog, but it shouldn't be widespread under CAA. Another round of freezing or near- freezing temperatures expected tonight, mainly west of the I-25 corridor. Kept the Freeze Watch in effect to see how this morning's Freeze Warnings do before upgrading. Otherwise, another chilly day Tuesday, but not as cold as yesterday with highs in the 40s to middle 50s for southeast Wyoming, but not as cold across western Nebraska with highs 55 to 60. May see a few lingering snow flurries or sprinkles today near the Colorado border and in the mountains. Slight warming trend for Wednesday and Thursday, but northwest flow aloft will continue...so temperatures during the afternoon will struggle to reach the 50s west of I-25, and 60 for areas east of I-25. Instability will still be present in this pattern, and models tend to underestimate daytime convection. Kept 20 to 40 percent POP for Wednesday with scattered rain showers and isolated thunder expected, mainly where it's warmest along and west of I-25. Some snowpack may remain over Carbon and Albany counties...even on Thursday...which will greatly decrease potential for convection. Even Thursday morning, low temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s are expected over the high valleys of Carbon and Albany counties. Later on Thursday, models show a potent clipper system out of Alberta Canada digging south into Wyoming and slowing down. Will have to monitor this system for additional mountain snowfall, but expect most of the lower elevations to stay as rainfall. Good forcing with this clipper with another shot of cooler air. Daytime instability will aid in shower and thunderstorm development with CAPE values between 400 to 800 j/kg. Could see some decent rainfall amounts into Friday. Increased POP above 60 percent for most of the area with the likelihood of multiple rounds of showers moving through the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A secondary vorticity maximum will propagate across our region on Friday, combined with PWAT near the 60th percentile, resulting in another chance for a few showers and thunderstorms with little change in high temperatures from the previous day given the cloud cover. Into the weekend, 500 mb heights rise as weak longwave ridging establishes itself across the Rocky Mountain West, resulting in a warming trend and mostly dry conditions. High temperatures are expected to be near climatology (average high in Cheyenne on May 23 is 67 degrees), with 60s west of the I-25 corridor and 70s further east. The warm up will continue Sunday into Monday as the ridge axis shifts over Wyoming, resulting in above-average temperatures and little to no chances of precipitation. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 520 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Yesterday's storm system will move east into the Great Lakes region today with improving conditions this morning. A weak disturbance aloft will result in isolated showers and cloud cover later this afternoon and tonight, mainly for the terminals near the Colorado border. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail over the next 12 to 18 hours, with some IFR CIGS hanging into KLAR until 14z. Another round of showers and low clouds possible tonight, but mainly for KLAR, KCYS, and KSNY after 06z Wednesday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for WYZ101-102- 106>108-113-115>119. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for WYZ101-115. Freeze Warning until noon MDT today for WYZ104-105-109>111. Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for WYZ104-105-109>111-113-116. NE...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for NEZ002-003- 019>021-054-055-095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...NB AVIATION...TJT  743 FXUS66 KMFR 191121 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 421 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .UPDATE...Aviation discussion updated. && .AVIATION...19/12Z TAFs... There could be localized areas of LIFR/IFR in fog/low clouds near the coast or in the coastal valleys this morning as models are showing a stratus layer very close to the coast tonight. Any areas of lower flight conditions should clear during the morning. Tonight, a weak impulse will pass over the region, with a marine push possible through the overnight and early morning hours, which could produce MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibilities along the coast, in the coastal valleys, and into the Umpqua Basin, including at North Bend and Roseburg. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1223 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026/ DISCUSSION...Upper level ridging will remain over the northeastern Pacific, just offshore of the West Coast, throughout the week. A few impulses are expected to ride up and over the ridge, keeping the impacts well to our north up in Washington and British Columbia, keeping southern Oregon and far northern California dry and warm. Meanwhile, a thermal trough will remain along the southwest coast, keeping temperatures in the Brookings area on the warm side, and producing daily afternoon breezes across the region. As we maintain the dry airmass and breezy afternoons, there will be at least an elevated threat for fire weather conditions each day. However, fuel conditions per fire agencies reveal the overall fire weather threat will remain low to moderate. Given the low RH values and breezy winds each afternoon, people should exercise caution with any outdoor activities that could cause sparks or flames. Bottom line is that fire season was declared early this year, so these precautionary actions should already be in place, but its especially important when we have these elevated fire weather days. Looking ahead, there are indications that the ridge will begin to break down this weekend, with the potential for a more robust trough to enter the Pacific Northwest around Memorial Day that could bring precipitation chances and cooler temperatures to the forecast area. Model suites are not in solid agreement with this scenario, with several differences in both timing and strength, so confidence is low. This will warrant a close eye for those with plans for the Memorial Day holiday. && MARINE...Updated 1200 AM PDT Tuesday, May 19, 2026...A thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas over the coastal waters much of this week. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest during the afternoons/evenings. Through this stretch, very steep seas of 10-12 ft are most likely south of Cape Blanco with steep seas (6-9 ft) north of Cape Blanco. Ensembles indicate winds will strengthen Wednesday through Friday with a potential (35-55% chance) for gales (gusts) across portions of the southern waters, especially from around Gold Beach south. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370. && $$  759 FXUS61 KBTV 191121 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 721 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... Winds were increased for today and tonight as warmer temperatures help mix stronger winds aloft to the surface. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... 1. Well above normal temperatures expected on Tuesday with much cooler weather expected on Wednesday and Thursday. 2. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. 3. Cooler and drier conditions are favored Thursday and Friday before a transition back to seasonable temperatures and a wetter pattern. 4. Seasonable temperatures and increasing chances of precipitation expected for the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Continued warm air advection will set the stage for unseasonably warm temperatures on Tuesday. The latest NBM shows high potential for 90 degree weather, however, much of the other guidance and MOS is showing temperatures likely plateauing in the mid to upper 80s. Cloud cover and convection will be a huge factor in determining how warm we get as a lot of guidance suggests partly to mostly cloudy skies. Any convection would increase cloud cover and any precipitation would drop temperatures significantly. Still, there is overwhelmingly high confidence in high temperatures being 15 to 20 degrees above normal. On Wednesday, a cold front will likely push through the region during the morning hours which will limit daytime heading with strong cold advection expected to follow in the wake of the front. We could still warm into the 80s across eastern Vermont but will likely be in the 70s for most of Vermont and New York based on the timing of the frontal passage. Thursday will be 10-20 degrees colder than Wednesday as we will see temperatures struggle to climb into the mid 50s to lower 60s. North winds in the 10-20 mph range will help make it feel a bit blustery, especially after the recent warmth. Most clear skies should help it feel a little warmer given the late May sun angle. KEY MESSAGE 2: The convective potential for Tuesday continues to remain very conditional. A lot of the machine learning and AI tools are showing modest probabilities (15-30%) for severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening while the latest deterministic guidance shows rather lackluster instability. There is high confidence in around 50 knots of deep-layer shear as we have a strong 500 jet move overhead but the thermodynamic profiles keep fluctuating from model run to model run. Even though temperatures are expected to warm into the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints rising in the lower to mid 60s, the mid-level lapse rates between 850 mb and 500 mb aren't exactly what you want to see to maximize severe potential. In addition, no notable surface convergence outside of orographic lifting is expected with the cold front not expected to come through until Wednesday morning. There will be some weak height falls under anticyclonic flow aloft and a weak shortwave trough pushing through which will give up some deep layer support but getting storms to initially develop will be difficult. The main focus, initially, will be across the higher terrain and along lake breezes as this could create some surface convergence and the upper level support could take over from there. There may be residual cloud cover from overnight convection across western New York which may stunt surface heating. Should this occur, instability values may underperform further and lead to little to no thunderstorm activity. Hence the condition potential. Largely unidirectional wind profiles with slight curvature in the Champlain Valley is expected which likely makes Tuesday a wind threat. High LCLs will strongly inhibit tornado potential with high freezing levels also making severe potential very difficult to come by. The main window for convection will be between 4 and 8 PM with instability waning rapidly following sunset. KEY MESSAGE 3: Winds weaken Thursday night with skies clearing; this may be a period of concern for some frost outside the Champlain Valley with lows in the mid/upper 30s for many locations, and low 40s for the Champlain Valley. Temperatures begin to warm up on Friday with northwest flow weakening, high temperatures will reach the 60s areawide. A slow warming trend is then expected through the weekend into Monday. Models begin to split on precipitation timing heading into the weekend. Consensus maintains some chances of showers increasing Saturday with more widespread rain Sunday. However, a number of models are beginning to hold onto the ridge longer delaying precipitation onset until the late weekend. Either way, a pattern shift to deep return flow from the Gulf Coast northeastward into the Northeast is appearing probable. This flow pattern would result in multiple days of rain potential once it sets up. KEY MESSAGE 4: There continues to be considerable differences in both ensembles and deterministic models in how shower chances play out for the upcoming holiday weekend. Ensemble members of both the GEFS and ECMWF are roughly split equally on whether waves of precipitation will cross the area Saturday into Sunday. The deterministic ECMWF also favors a wetter solution. Meanwhile, the remaining ensemble members along with the GFS and CMC keep ridging more firmly in place, with the axis running just to our east. This would keep rain shunted to our south and west through the day Saturday and most of Sunday, then trending rainy for Memorial Day. With this much uncertainty, have stayed with the NBM solution for now. Either way, temperatures will be seasonable with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...This morning, some showers are moving into northern New York with a focus on MSS and SLK through 16Z. More nebulous are chances as the area of showers track into the Champlain Valley - have about 30% chance of showers 15-21Z. After 18Z, isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible, some of which may be strong to perhaps severe. Coverage/timing is too uncertain at this point to include any mention in the TAF, but MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorms. Surface winds become light and variable around 5 kt this evening. However, a LLJ moving overhead will allow for periods of LLWS at all terminals overnight. Surface winds increase out of the S/SW after 14z Tue, gradually shifting toward the W/SW with gusts of 18-25 kt expected. LLWS will become pervasive overnight as LLjet spread across northern New York and much of Vermont ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers will begin at MSS after 09Z. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Winds are expected to increase this morning out of the south with sustained speeds 15 to 20kts and gusts around 25kts. These stronger winds will continue through 8 AM and will diminish to 15 knots or less until the early afternoon; winds then increase again as faster winds aloft mix to the surface. Gusts in excess of 20kts are probable before flow turns more southwesterly. South winds return tonight with stronger gusts possible. A front will pass through the region Wednesday resulting in a wind shift out of the north with gusts up to 30kts. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd DISCUSSION...Boyd/Hastings AVIATION...Boyd/Hastings MARINE...Clay  840 FXUS61 KBTV 191123 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 723 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 722 AM EDT Tuesday... Updated shower and thunderstorm potential for the morning hours across northern New York and northern Vermont. Chances have increased with a trough moving through. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... 1. Well above normal temperatures expected on Tuesday with much cooler weather expected on Wednesday and Thursday. 2. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. 3. Cooler and drier conditions are favored Thursday and Friday before a transition back to seasonable temperatures and a wetter pattern. 4. Seasonable temperatures and increasing chances of precipitation expected for the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Continued warm air advection will set the stage for unseasonably warm temperatures on Tuesday. The latest NBM shows high potential for 90 degree weather, however, much of the other guidance and MOS is showing temperatures likely plateauing in the mid to upper 80s. Cloud cover and convection will be a huge factor in determining how warm we get as a lot of guidance suggests partly to mostly cloudy skies. Any convection would increase cloud cover and any precipitation would drop temperatures significantly. Still, there is overwhelmingly high confidence in high temperatures being 15 to 20 degrees above normal. On Wednesday, a cold front will likely push through the region during the morning hours which will limit daytime heading with strong cold advection expected to follow in the wake of the front. We could still warm into the 80s across eastern Vermont but will likely be in the 70s for most of Vermont and New York based on the timing of the frontal passage. Thursday will be 10-20 degrees colder than Wednesday as we will see temperatures struggle to climb into the mid 50s to lower 60s. North winds in the 10-20 mph range will help make it feel a bit blustery, especially after the recent warmth. Most clear skies should help it feel a little warmer given the late May sun angle. KEY MESSAGE 2: The convective potential for Tuesday continues to remain very conditional. A lot of the machine learning and AI tools are showing modest probabilities (15-30%) for severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening while the latest deterministic guidance shows rather lackluster instability. There is high confidence in around 50 knots of deep-layer shear as we have a strong 500 jet move overhead but the thermodynamic profiles keep fluctuating from model run to model run. Even though temperatures are expected to warm into the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints rising in the lower to mid 60s, the mid-level lapse rates between 850 mb and 500 mb aren't exactly what you want to see to maximize severe potential. In addition, no notable surface convergence outside of orographic lifting is expected with the cold front not expected to come through until Wednesday morning. There will be some weak height falls under anticyclonic flow aloft and a weak shortwave trough pushing through which will give up some deep layer support but getting storms to initially develop will be difficult. The main focus, initially, will be across the higher terrain and along lake breezes as this could create some surface convergence and the upper level support could take over from there. There may be residual cloud cover from overnight convection across western New York which may stunt surface heating. Should this occur, instability values may underperform further and lead to little to no thunderstorm activity. Hence the condition potential. Largely unidirectional wind profiles with slight curvature in the Champlain Valley is expected which likely makes Tuesday a wind threat. High LCLs will strongly inhibit tornado potential with high freezing levels also making severe potential very difficult to come by. The main window for convection will be between 4 and 8 PM with instability waning rapidly following sunset. KEY MESSAGE 3: Winds weaken Thursday night with skies clearing; this may be a period of concern for some frost outside the Champlain Valley with lows in the mid/upper 30s for many locations, and low 40s for the Champlain Valley. Temperatures begin to warm up on Friday with northwest flow weakening, high temperatures will reach the 60s areawide. A slow warming trend is then expected through the weekend into Monday. Models begin to split on precipitation timing heading into the weekend. Consensus maintains some chances of showers increasing Saturday with more widespread rain Sunday. However, a number of models are beginning to hold onto the ridge longer delaying precipitation onset until the late weekend. Either way, a pattern shift to deep return flow from the Gulf Coast northeastward into the Northeast is appearing probable. This flow pattern would result in multiple days of rain potential once it sets up. KEY MESSAGE 4: There continues to be considerable differences in both ensembles and deterministic models in how shower chances play out for the upcoming holiday weekend. Ensemble members of both the GEFS and ECMWF are roughly split equally on whether waves of precipitation will cross the area Saturday into Sunday. The deterministic ECMWF also favors a wetter solution. Meanwhile, the remaining ensemble members along with the GFS and CMC keep ridging more firmly in place, with the axis running just to our east. This would keep rain shunted to our south and west through the day Saturday and most of Sunday, then trending rainy for Memorial Day. With this much uncertainty, have stayed with the NBM solution for now. Either way, temperatures will be seasonable with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...This morning, some showers are moving into northern New York with a focus on MSS and SLK through 16Z. More nebulous are chances as the area of showers track into the Champlain Valley - have about 30% chance of showers 15-21Z. After 18Z, isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible, some of which may be strong to perhaps severe. Coverage/timing is too uncertain at this point to include any mention in the TAF, but MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorms. Surface winds become light and variable around 5 kt this evening. However, a LLJ moving overhead will allow for periods of LLWS at all terminals overnight. Surface winds increase out of the S/SW after 14z Tue, gradually shifting toward the W/SW with gusts of 18-25 kt expected. LLWS will become pervasive overnight as LLjet spread across northern New York and much of Vermont ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers will begin at MSS after 09Z. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Winds are expected to increase this morning out of the south with sustained speeds 15 to 20kts and gusts around 25kts. These stronger winds will continue through 8 AM and will diminish to 15 knots or less until the early afternoon; winds then increase again as faster winds aloft mix to the surface. Gusts in excess of 20kts are probable before flow turns more southwesterly. South winds return tonight with stronger gusts possible. A front will pass through the region Wednesday resulting in a wind shift out of the north with gusts up to 30kts. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd DISCUSSION...Boyd/Hastings AVIATION...Boyd/Hastings MARINE...Clay  800 FXUS61 KOKX 191122 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 722 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot weather thru Wed. A heat advisory remains in effect for NE NJ and NYC. 2) An isold tstm is possible today. A cold front produces scattered tstms on Wed with damaging winds the main severe threat. 3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday weekend with chances of showers. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Offshore high pressure and increasing low level SW warm air advection will make for much warmer temperatures today and Wednesday as well. Heat advisory for NE NJ and NYC Metro 11AM today to 8PM Wednesday. This is the first high heat index event of the year for NE NJ and NYC. Warmest day is today with SW flow and daytime mixing. Temperatures in the 90s for all of NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and much of interior Southern CT as well as much of Nassau County NY. Mid to upper 90s for high temperatures much NE NJ and NYC Metro for temperatures and heat indices. Dewpoints are mostly in the low 60s today. Slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. This same distribution exists for high temperatures on Wednesday as well but a few degrees cooler on average. The dewpoints increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday with values mainly in the low to mid 60s. So for Wednesday, temperatures a little less than the previous day but dewpoints a little higher than the previous day. Highs mostly in the lower 90s Wednesday for much of NE NJ and NYC with corresponding heat indices in the mid 90s. Again, slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Subsidence and a lack of upr lvl support should limit convective chances today, but there is a chance that an isold tstm is triggered mainly across the interior this aftn where there will be high CAPE and no CIN. Best severe chances if initiation does occur could be interior CT into the Lower Hudson Valley invof the CAPE gradient. NBM pops are generally dry, despite a Marginal Risk from SPC. Stuck with the NBM pops for now and will see what mesoscale analysis yields today. No change to the fcst thinking for Wed. The cold front looks to move in first for Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT latter half of the afternoon and then crosses through the NYC Metro and coastal sections by early evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening. There is potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail. Flooding threat minimal with the westerly flow in the atmosphere and quick steering flow. However, a quick period of heavy rain and possible minor flooding cannot be ruled out with some thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday weekend with quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the holiday weekend. In its place, low pressure approaches from the south and west. Model variances on how far north the low reaches. Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are around 70 on Thursday. Northerly flow presents downslope warming first half of the day, allowing for coastal locations to berelatively warmer than inland. Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast mainly in the mid 60s to near 70 and then just low to mid 60s for most locations on Saturday. Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly really limiting the daytime warmth with more maritime influence. Along with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and west. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure remains over the western Atlantic with a frontal system slowly approaching the terminals into Wednesday. VFR through the TAF period. There is a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon well NW of the NYC metro terminals. Confidence remains too low to include in the TAFs. SSW-SW winds under 10 kt to start this morning will increase to 10-15 kt by late morning into the early afternoon. Gusts around 20-25 kt are possible in the afternoon and early evening with a few coastal terminals potentially seeing gusts a few kt higher. There is a chance the gusts will end up occasional. Any gusts should end around 00z with sustained wind speeds gradually weakening below 10 kt tonight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may end up occasional this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Wednesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower in showers and possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. S-SW winds gusts 20-25 kt day into evening. Gusts end with winds shifting NW in the evening. Thursday: Mainly VFR. Friday: Chance of showers and MVFR conditions. Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Increasing SW flow will produce SCA winds and seas on the ocean thru Wed. Marginal elsewhere, especially the LI back bays where winds will be close this aftn thru Wed. Conditions improve for Thu and Fri behind the cold front, then worsen on Sat as ely winds increase and seas build. There could be sct strong tstms invof the front on Wed. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-103>108. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...DS MARINE...  844 FXUS63 KDLH 191123 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 623 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for light showers and sprinkles increase this afternoon into the evening. - Freeze Warning likely needed across most the region for tonight. - Cool temps through midweek with a warming trend into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Early this morning, widespread stratus clouds and lingering showers are moving through the Northland in the wake of last nights low pressure system. As the morning progresses, cold air advection on the back side of the departing system will move into the area. This cool air will lead to steepening lapse rates and the potential for afternoon showers. However, because there is an abundance of low level dry air in place, most of the falling rain will evaporate before reaching the ground. As a result, mostly sprinkles are expected across the majority of the Northland today. The exception will be up toward the Borderlands, where slightly better lower level moisture will allow for some actual traces of rain to reach the surface. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current Conditions/Today: Widespread stratus has engulfed most the region in the wake of last nights showers and isolated storms. We are also seeing some areas of fog from the Brainerd Lakes Region and extending northeast through the Twin Ports and up the shore. This layer of stable air will keep temperatures cool with highs staying in the 50s under this cloud deck. Satellite is showing a few pockets of clearing over SE MN and western WI where temperatures will rebound back into the 70s helping to reload instability for this evenings convective potential. However, up in our portion of NW WI there are few breaks in the clouds with low clouds still filtering in from the west, so recovery seems limited. A baroclinic zone will still be draped across the Upper Midwest this afternoon with a surface low pressure centered over SE MN. Through the evening and overnight hours several low pressure systems will ride along this boundary boosting lift and helping to fuel shower and storm development. However, satellite trends through the morning hours have not been favorable for instability recovery and our temperatures across the region remain quite cool when compared to our neighbors to the south. The main threat for severe weather will be well off to our south. As such the SPC has pulled the severe risk down to just our SE corner with a marginal risk. Some strong storms can't be ruled out at this time with some damaging winds and hail at times, but the tornado chances are no longer a concern. Showers are expected to become more widespread later this evening. The two focal points for this activity is the low pressure moving along the stalled boundary and an upper level trough pivoting across the Upper Midwest. Targeted timing for rain entering from the southwest is after 9PM with activity departing to the northeast after 8AM. With the reduced risk for thunderstorms our overall rain totals have come down a bit with most the region seeing between 0.10-0.25" Areas that do see thunderstorms will have locally higher amounts, but the overall risk for flooding has diminished. Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday: Northwest flow and surface high pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday. Cyclonic flow aloft paired with remnant moisture will lead to diurnally driven cumulus and isolated sprinkles across northern MN. Temperatures will be on the cool side for Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Overnight, the high pressure moves over MN with clear skies leading to rapid radiational cooling. Widespread Freeze Warnings will likely be needed across the region. Conditions dry out a bit more on Wednesday with high temps rebounding back into the 50s and 60s. Winds will be light so fire weather concerns are low at this time. By Thursday high pressure departs to the east and we will get southerly return flow streaming back into the region. High temps will continue to climb back into the upper 60s with cooler conditions expected by Lake Superior. Friday-Weekend: An upper level trough is still expected to move across the Northern Plains to end the work week bringing rain chances back to the Northland. Timing of this has been slowed down when compared to previous model runs with 20-30% PoPs now entering Friday afternoon. This will also prompt the return of southwest flow aloft leading to a warming trend. Weekend temperatures in the 70s and some 80s possible with cooler by the Lake still in play. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 IFR ceilings will stick around most of the morning accompanied by drizzle and fog briefly dropping visibilities to IFR as well. Conditions are expected to slowly improve throughout the day. Cold air from the northwest will lead to some scattered light rain showers this afternoon. However, air near the surface will be dry, causing most, or all, rain to evaporate before reaching the ground. INL is the only terminal that could drop to MVFR from rain showers due to higher moisture near the surface. Winds out of the northwest will increase for the afternoon as well. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior today. Northwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots expected across most zones through the afternoon. A few lingering showers are possible early this morning before diminishing. Wave heights will generally range from 2 to 4 feet today, occasionally reaching up to 7 feet in the outer Apostle Islands, before subsiding to 1 to 3 feet by late afternoon and evening. Winds become lighter on Wednesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cloudy conditions and scattered showers continue early this morning, keeping minimum relative humidity values high today. As cold air moves in today, we will see gusty northwest winds and afternoon sprinkles. Wednesday brings a dry day with light winds as high pressure moves in. Critical fire weather concerns increase for Thursday, which features the greatest chance for low relative humidity dropping to 25 percent along with gusty southerly winds up to 20 mph. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>147. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148- 150. && $$ UPDATE...KML DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...KML MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML  813 FXUS63 KFSD 191122 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 622 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sprinkles are possible this afternoon across southwestern Minnesota and adjacent portions of South Dakota and Iowa. - Frost and freeze conditions are expected tonight into early Wednesday morning across the area - take precautions to protect sensitive vegetation. Frost/Freeze headlines go into effect late tonight. - Cooler conditions continue this week. Dry weather expected mid week. Another round of storms will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An area of showers/sprinkles is moving south into the James River Valley early this from northeastern SD. Additionally, drizzle has continue to taper off, despite most of the area under low stratus. Stratus continues through the day, with highs only warming into the 50s once again. May see some diurnally driven sprinkles for southwestern MN and adjacent areas of SD and IA today as we have a bit of weak instability in the saturated stratus layer. Other change for the next 24 hours was the issuance of Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories for tonight into early Wednesday morning. Clearing skies with the surface high pressure sliding overhead and light winds late Tuesday through early Wednesday should allow for efficient radiational cooling. We'll also see at least weak CAA at 925mb through the night. We probably won't be as efficient as a couple weeks ago thanks to recent rainfall, but think that temperatures still fall low enough into the 30s to lead to widespread impacts to vegetation. Freeze Warning was limited to the SD side of the US Hwy 14 corridor and into central SD, where confidence is higher in lows falling into the lower 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Early this afternoon the surface to 925 mb front was across southern NE into southern IA. Given the marginal strength of the incoming wave, this boundary should not lift far enough north and west by late afternoon to get into the area. This should limit any wind and tornado threats and keep them off to the southeast. However, some elevated hailers will remain possible across mainly northwest IA as elevated CAPE values ramp up to about 1000-1500 J/KG and deep layer shear is a fairly strong, unidirectional 40-50 knots. This would be lifting a parcel from above the stratus layer, which would likely be in about the 800-750mb layer. The better chances will be from about 5 pm to 9 pm. After this wave pushes the remaining instability out of the area this evening, dry and cool conditions are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. The only concerns on these two days will be the potential for frost and freeze conditions, mostly north of I-90, as surface high pressure is in place. Another weaker wave moves through the area on Wednesday but for now this appears to bring mainly mid level cloud cover. The next better chance for showers and thunderstorms will come Thursday night into Friday night. At this time severe weather looks to remain isolated as model instability fields are hinting at 1000 J/kg CAPE or less for the most part. Once this wave passes a warming trend should move in as flat ridging aloft develops ahead of a deepening low pressure in the Northern Rockies. Saturday should be mild, likely in the 70s, while Sunday sees the better chance to warm into the 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR and IFR conditions will improve from west to east through the morning and into the early afternoon. Already seeing some breaks and gaps in the stratus, so locations may bounce for a time between VFR and lower categories with stratus still upstream. Winds through the day remain breezy out of the northwest, with gusts around 25 knots. Winds become light and variable tonight with mostly clear skies. Some guidance hints at patchy MVFR or lower fog development into early Wednesday morning, so will keep an eye on trends. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ050- 054>071. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ038>040- 052-053. MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ071-072- 080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...SG  772 FXUS63 KLBF 191122 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 622 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning in effect Tuesday morning. - Dry and cooler through Wednesday when light rain showers return to portions of western Nebraska. - Temperatures will steadily climb day-over-day through the weekend, with a return to 70s and 80s likely by Saturday/Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Temperatures will become cold tonight with lows well below normal. Normal lows are in the mid 40s to upper 40s. Overnight lows will be around 10 to 15 degrees colder than normal lows with temperatures in the 30s. Confidence was greatest in temperatures below freezing for areas across western Nebraska, generally west of HWY 61. For areas east of HWY 61, there still remains lower confidence in temperatures dipping below the freezing mark. Latest models have remained consistent in the low cloud deck sticking around all through the overnight and morning. Cloud coverage are expected to keep temperatures from plummeting below freezing and probabilities of temperatures dropping below freezing levels are around 10 percent leading to higher confidence temperatures will not reach a hard freeze east of HWY 61, thus decided to keep the frost advisory going for this area, instead of upgrading to a freeze warning as lows will hover just above freezing. Cooler airmass and northerly winds will keep cooler temperatures for Tuesday with highs remaining well below normal. Temperatures will struggle to reach the low 60s across the southern Sandhills into southwest Nebraska and will be even cooler across the northern Sandhills with highs in the upper 50s. A front will move northward into portions of southwest Nebraska Wednesday. This area will become the focus for some lift in the area that could lead to a slight chance of rain shower, mainly along and west of HWY 83 across southwest Nebraska where moisture is greater. At this time any rainfall that does occur will remain light, with only around a tenth or less expected. Temperatures on Wednesday will still remain below normal with highs mostly in the mid to upper 50s across most of western Nebraska and the Sandhills. North central Nebraska will be slightly warmer, however temperatures will struggle to reach the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday Night...Precipitation chances will persist into Wednesday evening within return southerly flow behind departing high pressure. A subtle shortwave will cross western Kansas/Nebraska with continued warm air advection feeding light rain chances. NBM maintains appreciable QPF probabilities, with 30-45% potential for seeing 0.25" or more south of a Hayes Center to Brady line. Instability is sorely lacking during this time, so rain should occur largely without thunder. Even with precipitation potential and increasing clouds, a fairly cool night is expected with lows falling into the middle to upper 30s. These values are generally 5-10F below normal for late May. Thursday/Friday...upper troughing will settle south across Wyoming with subsequent height falls overspreading much of the Central High Plains. Increasing lee troughing will promote slightly backed flow resulting in increasing moisture reaching the Front Range. Daytime temperatures will continue to be on the cooler side with highs only reaching the low to middle 60s. NBM median output suggests modest instability developing during the afternoon to our west, with afternoon convection likely to develop along the I-25 corridor. Within strong westerly mid-level flow, showers and thunderstorms should move east into our far western zones towards late evening and persist long enough to reach the Highway 83 corridor. With quickly waning instability, the threat for any stronger storms appears low. Thursday night low temperatures should settle into the lower 40s which will be closer to seasonal norms though continuing to be slightly below normal. By early Friday, the main trough aloft should begin to eject out of southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado. A surface cool front will settle into our western zones and this coincident with the passing trough axis should herald the end to precipitation chances. NBM suggests rainfall will favor the morning hours with decreasing probabilities after daybreak. Beneficial rainfall appears possible with > 50% probabilities for exceeding 0.50" of rain south of I-80. Decreasing the threshold to > 0.10" shows 50%+ for all locations southeast of a Cody to Brownlee to Bartlett line. While certainly not a drought buster, incremental progress in catching up on the moisture deficit is certainly welcomed. Even with the approaching front and persistent clouds/precipitation, temperatures on Friday should continue the steady climb from the previous few days. Afternoon highs are progged to reach the low to middle 60s for most and upper 60s for our far southern zones. This appears to be the final day of widespread below normal temperatures within the forecast period. This weekend and beyond...upper troughing will quickly lift north into Canada with broad positive height anomalies overspreading much of CONUS. Low-amplitude ridging will establish itself across the Great Basin by early next week. This will lead to continued warming temperatures and daytime highs making a return to 80s and potentially the lower 90s to start next week. Upper ridging does not appear to be overly strong so concerns for any anomalous heat wave remains low. Troughing should approach the Pacific Northwest sometime around Monday/Tuesday. This should effective quell the upper-ridging and return the area to more favorable southwesterly flow around Days 7-8. Because of this, precipitation potential should remain fairly consistent and this aligns with latest CPC Day 6-10 and 8-14 Precipitation outlooks which highlight portions of western Nebraska with a slight lean wetter than normal as we head into June. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions are largely expected through the forecast period. Early morning stratus continues to break up across western Nebraska though periodic low clouds may still move into area terminals. Skies should clear out completely by late morning/midday with high confidence VFR conditions remaining through the remainder of the forecast period. Towards daybreak Wednesday, increasing clouds and light rain should approach the area from the southwest. Ensemble guidance holds off impacts into LBF until beyond the end of the valid period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ004-022>024-035-036-056-057-094. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ005-006-008-025-026-037-058-059-069-070. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...NMJ  897 FXUS63 KEAX 191124 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 624 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Cooler and drier conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures in the 60s. * Rainfall chances return Thursday, with the greatest chances (70- 80%) overnight Thursday into Friday. Strong and severe storms are not currently expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front which helped usher in a line of severe thunderstorms late Monday will continue to work its way through the region this morning. Stratiform precipitation has continued ahead of the cold front with the occasional lightning strike and rumble of thunder, though this should all come to an end later this morning with the front exiting our southern and eastern peripheries no later than 15Z. Temperatures will indeed be cooler behind the front, with today's high temperatures expected to only reach the mid 60s. Surface high pressure building off to our west will aid in keeping conditions on the calm end of the spectrum for the next 48 or so hours. The next "weather-maker", a positively-tilted upper-level trough, currently sits west of the Rockies. Low-level moisture will keep overcast conditions around during the daylight hours today with some gradual clearing beginning across northwest Missouri late this afternoon. The clearing trend is expected to continue into the overnight hours, resulting in scattered mid/high clouds for most on Wednesday. This period of lessened cloud cover will be shortlived, however, as clouds build back in later Wednesday evening during a period of increased low- level theta-e advection. The aforementioned upper-level trough will eject a subtle shortwave through the Central Plains, increasing vorticity overhead and producing lift. This shortwave will provide the forecast's first opportunity for rainfall beginning early Thursday morning. A second shortwave will traverse the region early Friday with a slightly stronger vort max, continuing rain chances generally through late morning and early afternoon in the western and eastern portions of the CWA, respectively. PoPs are currently greatest (70-80%) overnight Thursday into Friday when lift seems to be greatest, but PoPs >50% are persistent and widespread from 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday. Low-level inversions and shallow lapse rates will help prevent convection, but some very weak elevated instability could permit some rumbles of thunder amidst otherwise stratiform rain. Median rainfall accumulations from this event currently range 0.75" to 1" in our western counties, with accumulations closer to 0.5" further east. A surface low will attempt to move towards the southern MO/KS border early this weekend. However, confidence in the impact of this system remains limited due to a lack of upper-level support, so weekend precipitation chances remain low (<20%) and largely confined to our southern border of counties. Otherwise, expect warmer temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s as we head into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 IFR conditions will prevail at the three southernmost terminals for the first few hours of the TAF period with light precipitation/mist lowering VIS to 3 SM and CIGs below 1000 ft. CIGs and VIS should improve to MVFR by 15Z this morning; IFR CIG may persist slightly longer than VIS. Otherwise, expect improving conditions throughout the remainder of the TAF period with light winds out of the north. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ020>022- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>007-011>016- 023-024. KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...Macko AVIATION...Macko  886 FXUS64 KBMX 191124 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 624 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 622 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026 - Warm conditions are expected again on Tuesday with highs near 90 degrees. - Chances for showers and storms increase Tuesday night into Wednesday and continue through the weekend, with the highest (40-70%) chances in northern and western portions of Central Alabama during the afternoon and evening hours each day. - High moisture levels will support periods of heavy rain, though total amounts are anticipated to be light (1 to 2 inches across the area). && .DISCUSSION... (Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 Over the last few hours, we have been watching a few thunderstorms work up the I-65 corridor. A H7 shortwave has been helping guide this activity within a plume of healthy moisture advecting north across the state. These storms are likely to wane over the next hour or two. While chances are low (20-30%), I wouldn't be surprised to see patchy fog develop late tonight, especially in locations that saw rain this afternoon and evening. As we head through the day Tuesday, the upper ridge off to our east will begin to be suppressed as a stout upper trough slides across the Plains. An associated cold front will slowly move towards the southeast, eventually stalling just off to our west. Convection is likely to develop along and ahead of the boundary through the day Tuesday. Latest CAMs continue to hint at this activity decaying before making it into Central Alabama. We will need to monitor trends and any lingering outflow boundaries that may keep this activity going a bit longer and making it into our northwest counties. We will hang onto low to moderate chances for showers and storms daily Wednesday through the end of the week as several shortwaves traverse through the southwesterly flow aloft and interact with the stalled boundary. PWATs will remain elevated through the end of the week, generally in the 1.7-1.9" range which will help support periods of heavy rainfall. Despite the prolonged period of increased rain chances, rainfall amounts are not too impressive, roughly 1-2" across the area. While widespread severe storms are not expected, we could see a few stronger storms develop as we reach peak heating each afternoon. By the weekend, the stalled front retreats back to the north, leaving plentiful moisture in place. Continued bouts of upper level energy will keep moderate rain chances in the forecast. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period. Light and variable winds overnight will become south to southeast 5-10kts with mixing during the day today. Rain chances return Tuesday evening in the west to give a low probability at TCL for rain. Will leave out for now from the TCL terminal. Chances are better during the day Wednesday. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions are in store for much of the day Tuesday with minRHs in the 40-50% range during the afternoon. Rain chances increase late Tuesday into Wednesday and continue into the weekend as a front stalls near the region, with higher Min RH values. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 88 65 87 64 / 0 0 70 50 Anniston 88 65 87 64 / 10 0 50 30 Birmingham 89 70 87 67 / 0 10 60 50 Tuscaloosa 90 69 88 67 / 0 20 40 40 Calera 90 67 89 66 / 0 10 40 50 Auburn 89 69 89 67 / 0 0 30 10 Montgomery 90 69 89 68 / 0 10 20 20 Troy 90 68 89 67 / 10 10 40 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...08  915 FXUS64 KTSA 191125 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 625 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Numerous showers and storms Tuesday morning into NE OK spreading southward through early afternoon. Severe weather possible along with locally heavy rainfall. - Cooler temperatures Wednesday-Friday with continued low to medium rain chances through the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A line of strong and severe thunderstorms has formed across southeast KS, along a southeast-advancing cold front that is currently on the doorstep of the forecast area. The line of convection has produced a distinct outflow boundary that has pushed well ahead of the squall line. As long as this stays true, it will keep any tornado threat just about at zero. Main severe hazard with this line of storms will be damaging wind gusts, with isolated large hail embedded. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Pawnee, Osage, Washington (OK), Nowata, Craig, and Ottawa counties until 7 AM. The line is forecast to reach the I-44 corridor right around sunrise Tuesday, give/take an hour. Latest consensus in CAMs show some weakening of the line as it moves southeast of I-44, though pockets of strong and severe storms will still be possible as the line becomes more diffused. As it moves into southeast OK late in the morning and into the afternoon, the combination of daytime heating and existing outflow boundaries may cause re-intensification in the line; damaging winds would be the main threat if anything severe develops. The severe threat will shift south and east of the area by mid- afternoon, with lingering light to moderate stratiform rain lingering mainly across southeast OK and northwest AR through the remainder of the afternoon. Overall, rainfall amounts will vary from half an inch to around an inch. A few locations may have amounts closer to two inches with pockets of intense cores embedded in the line. Southwest flow aloft with maintain itself through the daytime and evening on Tuesday. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop along the 925-850mb frontal boundary late Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly across northeast OK and northwest AR. Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but an additional rainfall amount up to half an inch will be possible. Precipitation chances will continue through the end of the short- term period. Substantially cooler temperatures will follow the cold front overnight tonight and during the day Tuesday, with temperatures falling into the 60s and lower 70s immediately behind the front. Temperatures across southeast OK and northwest AR could reach the lower 80s in the afternoon prior to the frontal passage. The front will exit the forecast area sometime around sunset. Cloud coverage should stay thick through Tuesday night and should keep temperatures from plummeting overnight. Regardless, overnight lows will drop into the 50s and 60s by sunrise Wednesday. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Consensus in model guidance continues to show a series of passing mid/upper-level waves through the remainder of the week, through this upcoming weekend, and even into early next week. As such, there will be daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through the long-term period. At this time, flow aloft is expected to be fairly light and not very supportive of severe weather through at least Thursday and much of Friday. However, PWATs are expected to remain abnormally high through the period and the upper-level waves will likely produce periods of moderate to heavy rainfall at times. One possible instance of heavy rainfall will occur Thursday afternoon/evening and into Thursday night as a couple of shortwaves combine over the area. Another instance of heavy rain is forecast to occur Friday night into Saturday morning as a more potent trough passes to the north of the area. Instability and shear will become a little more defined and a limited severe threat may develop Friday evening/night as storms are expected to initiate off a dryline in western OK Friday afternoon and push eastward into the region later. Better details on timing and severity will come in later days. An active pattern will persist Sunday and Monday, with isolated to scattered precipitation chances each day. Northerly winds and cloud cover (with precipitation chances) will keep temperatures below average through Thursday. Temperatures climb back near seasonal average by Friday before climbing above average by late in the weekend or early next week. Mejia && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A couple hour period of thunderstorm impacts will affect all terminals except BVO during the first 6 hours or so of the valid TAF period, with IFR/MVFR ceilings and gusty northerly winds behind a cold front. Reduced visibilities should develop this evening and continue overnight, with a low chance of locally IFR visibilities that will not be mentioned for now. CAMs continue to show isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms after 06-08Z, which will be covered by PROB30 groups at all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 57 71 61 / 70 70 20 60 FSM 79 66 80 65 / 90 50 70 50 MLC 77 62 77 65 / 80 50 40 40 BVO 66 52 69 55 / 40 70 10 60 FYV 77 62 75 61 / 80 60 50 40 BYV 77 60 70 59 / 90 70 40 20 MKO 75 59 74 62 / 90 60 30 50 MIO 72 55 68 58 / 80 80 30 50 F10 75 57 73 61 / 80 60 20 50 HHW 78 65 79 65 / 90 50 40 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...22  953 FXUS63 KGLD 191126 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 526 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A short period of frost is possible around sunrise this morning, mainly in northeast CO (Yuma/Kit Carson counties) where temperatures may briefly fall into the mid 30's. - Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week, perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 220 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Frost Advisory: In the advisory area, a short period of frost is possible an hour or two on either side of sunrise this morning, when pervasive low ceilings (2000-3000 ft AGL at 0845Z) will begin to lift/scatter. Observational trends suggest that Yuma/Kit Carson counties are most at-risk for frost (relatively speaking). Low confidence in frost development, especially south of Hwy 36 where breezy (10-20 mph) north winds are more likely to persist through sunrise. Today: ~1025 mb surface high pressure in Wyoming at 06Z will build ESE over central Nebraska and north-central Kansas today. Expect decreasing cloud cover by sunrise and mostly clear skies by late morning as northerly low-level flow advects a drier airmass southward into the Tri-State Area. Winds will decrease to 5-10 mph by late morning to early afternoon (~16-19Z).. in concert with a weakening MSLP-850 mb height gradient. Clear skies / unimpeded insolation will foster a warming trend with highs ranging from the upper 50's to upper 60's. Tonight: Light N winds will shift to the E (this evening) and SE (early Wed morning) as the surface high over central Nebraska and north-central Kansas progresses slowly E toward northwest Missouri/western Iowa.. leading to modest low-level moisture return (850 mb dewpoints rising from -3 to 3C) by sunrise in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties. Strengthening mid- level (700-500 mb) warm advection in advance of an upper level wave.. a modest 250-350 mb trough / shear-axis progressing eastward from the 4-Corners to the central Rockies.. will foster increasing mid-level cloud cover (ceilings at/above ~7,000 ft AGL) this evening and overnight. Despite a modest increase in low-level moisture and an increasingly upslope component to low- level flow in eastern CO, guidance suggests that weak/neutral low-level thermal advection will be insufficient for low stratus development, and that.. mid-level warm advection, in of itself, will likely be insufficient to produce measurable precipitation (i.e. anything beyond virga/sprinkles) prior to sunrise. Expect overnight (Wed morning) lows in the upper 30's to lower 40's. Wednesday: Showers are possible over portions of the area, mainly west and north of Goodland during the late morning and early afternoon when/where mid-level warm advection will be strongest; enough to capitalize on/utilize modest elevated instability (~100-250 J/kg MUCAPE). Expect broken/overcast cloud cover over most or all of the area and ~10-20 mph SE winds with highs in the upper 50's to mid 60's. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Thursday will see a stronger disturbance move out of the northern Rockies into western Colorado by the afternoon, then moving across the area Thursday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase once again. Instability will be limited by cloud cover, and models showing only weak SBCAPE of around 500 j/kg in the afternoon, mainly in Colorado. Deep layer shear will increase to 30-50 kts by 00z and may compensate somewhat for the weak instability in Colorado, where a marginally severe storm may be possible through the early evening before loss of heating. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through Thursday nightas the upper wave makes its way across the area. Additional rainfall amounts Thursday night are generally between 0.25" - 0.50", though locally higher amounts over 1" are possible. Temperatures on Thursday could remain in the 50s, especially north of Interstate 70, where clouds persist through the day, with perhaps 60s further south or west with limited clearing. Friday, our region is forecast to be under a weak southwest flow with a weak trough west of the Rocky Mountains. There is also a surface low forecast to set up somewhere in southwest Kansas. Ensembles do not fully align on the placement of this surface low. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to low 70s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue throughout the day as embedded shortwaves pass through the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are 30-60% increasing from southwest to northeast. The environment is forecast to be moderately unstable with CAPE values generally between 500-1000 J/kg for the region. However, lingering cloud cover will likely keep the environment capped, reducing the risk for severe weather. If thunderstorms are able to form, small hail could occur with stronger storms. Skies will clear out Saturday and begin a slight warming trend through the beginning of the work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s for Saturday and the 80s for Sunday and Monday. Saturday will have a 25% chance for showers and thunderstorms for the southeast county warning area (CWA) from weak shortwave passages. After Sunday, we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect primarily sunny skies and gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoons for our Colorado counties. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 522 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Early morning stratus continues to break up across the Tri- State area. CIGs continue to report around 2kft AGL at area terminals and will maintain limited coverage for a few more hours. Skies should become clear shortly after and remain that way for the bulk of the daytime Tuesday. Tonight, increasing mid-level clouds will arrive ahead of an approaching disturbance that may bring a return of low-end VFR/MVFR conditions towards the end of the period. At this time, confidence in precise timing and impacts remains limited and adjustments with later forecasts may be necessary. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092. NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for NEZ079-080. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...WFO LBF/NMJ  942 FXUS64 KEPZ 191126 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 526 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 - Breezy and mostly dry conditions continue each afternoon through the work week. - Potential rain chances this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1014 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 An upper trough spanning the western CONUS will keep the area under dry southwest flow Tuesday and even into Wednesday. Expect low end breeziness each afternoon with speeds generally 10-20 mph sustained. A cold front is barreling down the Great Plains this evening and looks to reach the edges of the Sacramento Mtns by early this morning before it gets pushed away from the area due to dry SW flow picking up again by the daylight hours. Moisture from the southern Plains will push into the area Wednesday morning. But, how far west will the moisture make it? GFS says moisture will make it to the Hudspeth county/El Paso county line, but the NAM pushes this moisture as far west as the Rio Grande Valley. This will depend on if our area could see thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon when the dryline races eastward again. Much of the action will be to our east, but perhaps we could get some thunderstorms to fire off that boundary if moisture stays in the area longer than forecast. A cutoff low looks to form over the Baja California area Thursday, which keeps the area under southwest flow much of Thursday and into Friday before the weak cutoff low pushes eastward Saturday. Thursday and Friday, the area keeps low end breeziness with wind speeds of 10-20 mph each afternoon. Models are suggesting slight chances of rain in Hudspeth county late Thursday and into Friday. Somewhat better and potentially more widespread rain chances possible late Friday and Saturday due to the cutoff low. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected today beneath SKC-FEW250. Light westerly winds will increase from the SW (210-240) this afternoon with speeds of 10 to 15 knots and gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will decrease again after dark. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 525 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 We will see another day of very dry and warm conditions, but winds will not be as strong as they were on Monday, topping out around 15 MPH although low lands across Sierra County will top out closer to 20 MPH. Min RH values will drop into the single digits. This will largely remain the pattern for the next several days. The exception will be across far eastern portions of the Lincoln / Capitan NF and Eastern Hudspeth County where a front / dry line will meander. To the east of the front, winds will be from the east our southeast. A stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out as well east of the front, but probabilities are very low until this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 64 91 64 88 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 57 87 56 82 / 0 10 10 20 Las Cruces 55 87 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 88 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 66 43 63 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 57 86 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 52 79 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 54 89 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 55 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 89 64 86 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 56 88 56 87 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 62 94 62 90 / 0 0 10 10 Loma Linda 59 83 58 80 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 60 92 61 89 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 57 88 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 65 89 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 55 90 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 87 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 48 76 47 75 / 0 10 10 10 Mescalero 48 76 46 74 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 46 73 44 73 / 0 10 0 10 Winston 46 79 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 86 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 48 79 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 50 82 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 51 85 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 50 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 53 81 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 54 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 55 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown  977 FXUS64 KMAF 191127 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 627 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 622 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through today, mainly for Big Bend and along the Rio Grande where highs are expected to reach into the low to mid 100s. - Strong to severe storms will be possible today for areas generally east and south of Midland/Odessa. Main threats will include large hail, damaging winds, and lightning. - Strong to severe storms are expected once again on Wednesday where large hail, damaging winds will be threats as well as localized flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front is currently making its way southward across the Texas Panhandle and will make to the region within the next few to several hours. There remains some uncertainty with just how far south this front will make it into the area. Should it stall out over the northern Permian Basin, there will be a better chance at showers and storms developing east of the dryline that has setup just to the east of the city of Pecos. Should the front make it further south before stalling, storms may be confined to the Lower Trans Pecos or portions of Big Bend. No matter where storms develop, they will be capable of being strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards in addition to brief heavy rainfall and lightning. Forecast highs will also be uncertain as they will depend on where the front ends up. Areas south of the front will once again reach into the 90s. Behind the front, much cooler air will move in where highs may not reach 80F. By tonight, the front washes out and the dryline establishes itself once again over the western half of the CWA. Low level moisture is pulled westward with the dryline and an upper level disturbance makes its way in from the west. In addition to the upper level support, forecast PWATs move to between 1-1.3" east of the dryline. Climatologically, this would rank near or above the 90th percentile for May 20th. This spring setup is favorable for strong to severe storms as well as heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding. Rain amounts will be tough to pin down as it will be dependent on how convection develops over the course of the day on Wednesday. A cooler airmass and rain keep it cooler with highs in the 70s and 80s for Wednesday. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Heading into Wednesday evening, daytime convection begins to decay and move to the east out of the region. A lull in activity will be seen through Thursday morning. With the upper level disturbance moving off to the east, rain chances take a hit and will be low (10- 40%) over the course of the day. However, convection from Wednesday will have leftover boundaries and the dryline to aide in some activity developing and becoming strong to severe. Medium to long range guidance keeps this pattern in the area through this coming weekend with each day having a chance for showers and storms to develop. Temperatures see a slight warm up with most locations reaching into the mid to upper 80s, though this would be a few degrees below normal for late May. Overnight lows during this time would be near normal in the upper 50s to low 60s for most. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cold frontal passage will occur over the next couple of hours and shift winds out of the north with speeds sustained in the teens and gusts between 20-25kts. Brief BLDU may be seen with FROPA, but visibility should quickly improve. TSRA possible at both FST/MAF this afternoon, but more confident in convection near FST compared to MAF. VFR remains otherwise. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 91 60 77 60 / 40 20 20 80 Carlsbad 94 62 84 59 / 0 10 30 40 Dryden 96 68 87 64 / 30 10 30 90 Fort Stockton 97 65 87 62 / 10 10 20 70 Guadalupe Pass 85 60 80 59 / 0 0 30 40 Hobbs 91 56 75 55 / 0 10 40 60 Marfa 92 53 88 52 / 0 0 40 30 Midland Intl Airport 94 61 78 61 / 10 10 20 70 Odessa 94 62 79 61 / 10 10 30 70 Wink 95 63 83 60 / 0 10 30 60 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...93  041 FXUS61 KBTV 191129 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 729 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 722 AM EDT Tuesday... Updated shower and thunderstorm potential for the morning hours across northern New York and northern Vermont. Chances have increased with a trough moving through. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 727 AM EDT Tuesday... 1. Unusually warm temperatures continue today into Wednesday before a cold front moves through the region bringing much cooler conditions by Thursday and Friday. 2. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening with more widespread showers possible overnight into Wednesday. 3. Breezy to gusty winds are expected today through Wednesday. 4. Seasonable temperatures and increasing chances of precipitation expected for the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 727 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Heat will continue today with 925mb temperatures favored to warm into the 20-24C range. This is down from yesterday, but the warmer start this morning will continue to promote hot conditions. Maximum temperatures are favored back into the mid and upper 80s with 90 within reach for a few select locations. Flow will be swinging southwesterly, so Burlington may get a marginal reprieve as air moves across the colder surface of Lake Champlain; upper 80s are favored here. Conversely, eastern slopes will have an increase in temperatures from this wind direction that will promote increased compressional warming off the terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens. 90-93 degrees is more probable for eastern Essex County, NY and for the Springfield, VT area. Around 90 is possible for portions of Rutland/Addison Counties as well. Temperatures are expected to drop by 10-15 degrees for Wednesday, but remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Warmest spots will be in southern Vermont where there will be potential for more heating ahead of the boundary. Highs in the 70s are forecast with low 80s for southern Vermont locations. Northwest flow will dominate behind the front bringing sharply cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday with highs likely in the mid/upper 50s, then 60s respectively. This will be around 10 degrees below seasonal averages and around a 30 degree departure from yesterday and today's high. KEY MESSAGE 2: A conditional threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains as heat continues while dew points rise. Highs in the mid/upper 80s to 90s coupled with dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s would support a few stronger variety storms. Should any storms fire off, it's probable that outflows would be sufficient to ignite other cells, especially if they interact with lake breeze or move into convent flow around terrain. The biggest issue will be a trigger. Models are showing a subtle 500mb trough moving through late this morning and early afternoon which is what some of the CAMs are highlighting as a trigger. There should be ample cloud breaks to allow for heating which will put the focus on shower/cell initiation over higher terrain. Have increased chances of showers over the Adirondacks coincident with trough timing and as temps on the slopes rise to near 80 degrees which aligns with about noon. The biggest concern will be winds (15%) with a stout low level jet and deep layer of 40+kts extending from 2500-15000ft. There will be about a 5% chance of any storm developing hail this afternoon. The continued absence of strong low level shear means the tornadic threat is very low. Finally, can't rule heavy rain completely out with PWATs in excess of 1.5". If storms fire and a persistent boundary can set up, training cells could occur resulting in localized heavy rainfall. The threat for stronger storms will end around sunset with loss of heating and decrease further behind the prefrontal trough overnight Tuesday. More synoptically induced precipitation is expected as the front begins to moves through tonight along a prefrontal trough and Wednesday as the surface front moves through. KEY MESSAGE 3: Winds will be breezy through Wednesday given periods of low level jet passages and a moderately strong thermal/pressure gradient along and behind Wednesday's front. Gusts 20-35 mph are likely with highest gusts in the northern Champlain Valley and along the Highway 11 corridor in the vicinity of Malone/Ellenburg, NY. Gusts to 40 mph are possible should mixing be more pronounced; model soundings show robust southwest flow aloft with a deep 35-45kt layer 2500-15000+ft. Some model guidance is suggesting a narrow potential at gusts to 40 mph for portions of northern New York tonight, but this will be highly dependent on convection which is less certain. These winds will result in rough lake conditions on Lake Champlain. Lighter winds return Thursday as high pressure moves across the region. KEY MESSAGE 4: There continues to be considerable differences in both ensembles and deterministic models in how shower chances play out for the upcoming holiday weekend. Ensemble members of both the GEFS and ECMWF are roughly split equally on whether waves of precipitation will cross the area Saturday into Sunday. The deterministic ECMWF also favors a wetter solution. Meanwhile, the remaining ensemble members along with the GFS and CMC keep ridging more firmly in place, with the axis running just to our east. This would keep rain shunted to our south and west through the day Saturday and most of Sunday, then trending rainy for Memorial Day. With this much uncertainty, have stayed with the NBM solution for now. Either way, temperatures will be seasonable with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...This morning, some showers are moving into northern New York with a focus on MSS and SLK through 16Z. More nebulous are chances as the area of showers track into the Champlain Valley - have about 30% chance of showers 15-21Z. After 18Z, isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible, some of which may be strong to perhaps severe. Coverage/timing is too uncertain at this point to include any mention in the TAF, but MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorms. Surface winds become light and variable around 5 kt this evening. However, a LLJ moving overhead will allow for periods of LLWS at all terminals overnight. Surface winds increase out of the S/SW after 14z Tue, gradually shifting toward the W/SW with gusts of 18-25 kt expected. LLWS will become pervasive overnight as LLjet spread across northern New York and much of Vermont ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers will begin at MSS after 09Z. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Winds are expected to increase this morning out of the south with sustained speeds 15 to 20kts and gusts around 25kts. These stronger winds will continue through 8 AM and will diminish to 15 knots or less until the early afternoon; winds then increase again as faster winds aloft mix to the surface. Gusts in excess of 20kts are probable before flow turns more southwesterly. South winds return tonight with stronger gusts possible. A front will pass through the region Wednesday resulting in a wind shift out of the north with gusts up to 30kts. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd DISCUSSION...Boyd/Hastings AVIATION...Boyd/Hastings MARINE...Clay  169 FXUS63 KLOT 191131 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 631 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms diminish early this morning across northern IL. Thunderstorm chances then increase again this afternoon, mainly southeast of a Peru IL to Valparaiso IN line. A few strong storms are possible. - Summer-like warmth and breezy winds today will give way to cooler and dry conditions for the middle of the week. - Intermittent shower/thunderstorm chances return late in the week and into the weekend, though with a return of warmer weather by Memorial Day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Early morning surface analysis places 1005 mb low over northwest Wisconsin, with a cold front trailing through central Iowa into southeast Kansas. Strong/severe thunderstorms that had developed Monday afternoon ahead of the front across the mid- Missouri Valley and elsewhere ahead of the boundary, have since evolved into another linear MCS, which currently stretches all the way from the central upper peninsula of Michigan to northwest/western Illinois, then southwest to Oklahoma. Aloft, GOES vapor imagery indicates a deepening mid-level short wave trough propagating northeastward from the northern/central Plains toward the northern Great Lakes. Strong large-scale ascent, depicted by mid-level height falls of 60-80 meters across the upper Mississippi Valley, is aiding in maintaining a strong southwesterly low-level jet across our region, which latest RAP soundings/mesoanalysis depict at 60 kts across western IL. While low-levels have diurnally stabilized, the strong low level jet and associated warm/moist advection has maintained an elevated MUCAPE axis of 1500-2000 J/kg per RAP soundings. This, combined with low-level forcing provided by the eastward- propagating outflow boundary along the leading edge of the aforementioned MCS has allowed scattered convective cells to continue to initiate atop the outflow boundary across western and northwest Illinois. Forecast soundings do indicate a weakening and veering of the low-level jet over the next few hours however, along with a decrease in elevated instability. Combined with the stable boundary layer conditions, this should continue to result in weakening trend to the convection as the outflow continues to shift east across northern IL this morning, which is already evident in recent radar and lightning data. Stable outflow and lingering scattered morning showers, combined with a stream of high-level cloud cover off of stronger convection well to our southwest should limit local convective redevelopment for the balance of the morning. The surface cold front is progged move into the forecast area early this afternoon, pushing southeast across the area into this evening. Forecast soundings are generally capped across the area initially, though become conditionally unstable with diurnal warming later this afternoon ahead of the front mainly across the southeast half of the forecast area (and especially southeast of a Pontiac-Valparaiso line). Guidance has generally backed-off with coverage of afternoon convection across our area, though frontal forcing and favorable diurnal timing especially in our far southeast should support an increasing thunderstorm threat mid-late afternoon. Forecast 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPEs and up to 35 kts of deep-layer shear (generally parallel to the frontal zone) would support some storm organization with some wind/hail potential. Note SPC has moved earlier slight risk out of the WFO Chicago area with the new Day 1 outlook, leaving a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk in our far southeast. A few showers may linger across our southeastern tier of counties this evening until the front exits the region, with a period of dry and cooler weather then expected Wednesday through Thursday. After several recent days of highs in the 70s and 80s, daytime temperatures in the 60s are expected mid-late week with 50s closer to Lake Michigan where breezy northeasterly winds will persist around an area of high pressure building across the Great Lakes region. Nighttime temps both Wednesday and Thursday night will dip into the 40s in most areas. Rain chances then return Thursday night into Friday, as guidance depicts an area of low pressure tracking from Missouri into Illinois and Indiana in association with an upper level trough transiting the region into the weekend. Some detail and timing differences remain within the global guidance suite, though rain chances appear to be highest on Friday, then more spotty from Saturday into Monday. It does appear that warmer temperatures will return later in the weekend, but likely with cooler conditions near Lake Michigan. Ratzer && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Forecast concerns for the terminals... - Low chance for an isolated shower or storm this afternoon, mainly south of a PNT to VPZ line. - Breezy west-southwest winds through this afternoon with 20-30 kt gusts. - Period of MVFR ceilings this afternoon with otherwise VFR conditions. A line of scattered showers continues to meander across northern IL and will continue to do for the next 2-3 hours. While the showers may dissipate prior to reaching northwest IN, a period of light showers/sprinkles cannot be ruled out here. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are expected for today at the terminals. However, there is still a low chance (15-20%) for an isolated shower or storm to develop this afternoon ahead of the cold front but the better coverage of any showers/storms should be south and east of a PNT to VPZ line. That said, did opt to introduce a PROB30 at GYY for SHRA this afternoon given their closer proximity to the better forcing and instability. Winds will continue to increase out of the southwest this morning with 25-30 kt gusts expected through early afternoon. A brief period (1-2 hours max) of 180-170 wind directions may occur this morning in the wake of the showers but overall southwest winds should prevail. Gusts are forecast to ease a bit into the 20-25 kt range this afternoon as a plume of MVFR ceilings drifts overhead behind the aforementioned cold front with directions becoming westerly as well. The MVFR ceilings are only expected to last a few hours before the scatter back to VFR this evening where conditions will remain for the rest of the TAF period. Gusts will also diminish further after sunset with generally 10-12 kt winds expected overnight out of the northwest. Though, some occasional upper teen to lower 20 kt gusts could linger through the night. Finally, winds will turn northeasterly early Wednesday morning and remain as such for the rest of the period. Yack && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  082 FXUS64 KHGX 191130 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 630 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A wet, muggy weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week across southeast Texas, bringing temperatures slightly below normal (upper 80s) for this time of the year. - Rain chances will continue through the week with 3-6 inch rainfall totals more likely (50-60% chance of 3+ inches) later this week and through the weekend. - The threat of hazardous rip currents remains through at least midweek before marine hazards transition to thunderstorm-driven waves. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through most of the workweek into the weekend, the broader-scale synoptic pattern of troughing across the Intermountain West and ridging across the southeast U.S. will retain its position over the CONUS with some amplifying evolutions/permutations to the local southwesterly flows (and subtropical jet) aloft. As the longwave trough delivers multiple ejections into the Great Plains, it will maintain a moisture-rich southwesterly flow aloft (PWATs near 2 inches, well above the 75% percentile of climatology). This, combined with the advection of embedded vorticity maxima and lift from an attendant frontal boundary, sets the stage for multiple rounds of efficient rainfall producing convection (some storms could produce 3 to 4 inches of rain per hour). Forecast uncertainty remains with the expected evolution of convective systems as they approach and proceed through southeast Texas, however, the congruency that is emerging among short-term model solutions at the moment favors MCS propagation. The first in multiple rounds of MCSs is expected later tonight into the overnight hours, while more concentrated convective rounds are expected on Thursday and later this week. The cumulative concern is for where the soils are primed the most from antecedent rains by Friday and subsequent Flood Watch issuance can't be ruled out at this time. Long-range guidance continues the wet trend into early next week with Day 1-7 QPF values of 5-7 inches becoming likely. Cassel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 SHRA and isolated TSRA over the area will dissipate over the next few hours. MVFR cigs expected to trend VFR by the afternoon, with SE winds becoming more ESE later in the day. We still anticipate a line of SHRA/TSRA to move into the area from the north and west this evening / overnight. However, confidence in the forecast (especially regarding TSRA timing and severity) is quite low. In addition, the wind direction/speed forecast is uncertain tonight into Wednesday morning. The primary concern from TSRA will be strong gusty winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Gusty southeast flow and enhanced Gulf seas will continue into Tuesday. However, the primary weather concern will be the potential for strong thunderstorms overnight tonight and into Tuesday. Thunderstorm winds could easily exceed gale force and result in locally higher seas. It is important to note that thunderstorm related winds can be felt tens of miles away from the storm. Thunderstorms can also result in sudden changes in wind direction. As for the rest of the week, expect generally light to moderate south to southeast winds and 3-4 ft seas. There will be a continued daily risk of showers and thunderstorms, with locally higher winds and seas in the vicinity of any thunderstorm. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Anticipating multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall Tuesday through at least Saturday. These rounds are expected to mostly be in the form of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS's). The exact timing of these storms can be a bit tricky as mesoscale factors play a key role (hence the name), but we anticipate the first round to come late Tuesday. With PW values exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.7-2.1"), rainfall rates will likely exceed 3-4"/hr in the heaviest downpours. While these lines of storms are typically progressive, the rainfall received early in the week is expected to prime the soils for rounds later in the week. Saturated soils leads to a quicker transition to runoff which brings an increased risk of flooding. We continue to anticipate widespread rainfall totals of 5-7" with isolated higher amounts. The highest rainfall totals are still expected to occur north of I-10. This rainfall will generate runoff and cause rises on area rivers and watersheds. Action to minor stage flooding is the most likely outcome, but cannot entirely rule out moderate to isolated major stage flooding depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Landry-Guyton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 89 72 83 72 / 40 70 70 60 Houston (IAH) 89 76 86 75 / 40 60 60 40 Galveston (GLS) 86 79 85 79 / 40 50 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335- 350-355. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cassel AVIATION...Self MARINE...Self  266 FXUS63 KGID 191133 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 633 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance of precipitation will come Wednesday (20-30%) and Wednesday night (40-70%). A mix of showers and non-severe thunderstorms may deposit up to 0.1-0.5" of precipitation. - Periodic thunderstorm chances return each day between Wednesday and Sunday. - Highs through Thursday will remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A multi-day gradual warm up back to the 80s will then transpire over the weekend. - A few patchy areas of frost will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for mainly Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard, Nance, Merrick and Polk counties. && .UPDATE... Issued at 129 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Today we will finally take a pause from the mention of severe weather as there will be no chance for any sort of precipitation today. A more stable and cooler airmass has now blanketed the area and will keep conditions generally more quiet for the next few days. Winds this morning blowing out of the north to northwest between 15- 20MPH and gusting as high as 25-30MPH, will gradually slow down later this afternoon and evening as higher pressure filters in near the surface. Highs through Thursday will mainly stay in the upper 50s to mid 60s with overnight lows returning back to the mid 30s and 40s for the next at least three nights. The potential for frost will make its return back to possibly a limited northern portion of the area Tuesday night. With lows nearing the mid 30s and with calming overnight winds, frost formation could be possible in a handful of locations north of I-80 (mainly across Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard, Nance, Merrick and Polk counties). If this trend continues, a Frost Advisory will need to be considered for these locations overnight Tuesday. The next chance for precipitation will not come until Wednesday as the next low amplitude shortwave trough wobbles through the Central Plains region. A few AM showers could pass near to just west of the area (20-30% precipitation chance). The better precipitation potential (40-70% chances) will come later Wednesday night as a mix of shower and non-severe thunderstorms move into central portions of Kansas/Nebraska. Given the cooler temperatures, a weaker CAPE profile (<500J/km) should limit the total number of storms and keep the mention of severe weather out of the discussion. Otherwise, winds for both Wednesday and Thursday will remain out of an easterly direction, blowing mainly between 5-15MPH with occasional gusts as high as 20-25MPH. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A broad upper level trough over the Rockies has been the driving force for severe weather yesterday and today. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level wave crossing much of the Central Plains this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are currently going up along a boundary stretching from Hebron, NE to Lincoln, KS, as of 2:30 PM CDT. The main threat are a few tornadoes, golf ball size hail, and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Severe weather is forecast for Mitchell and Jewell continues in KS and Thayer county in NE. Storms will move out the region by the late afternoon with a majority of the severe weather threat off to the east. Areas behind the cold front, which is much of the county warning area, will see low stratus lingering into tonight causing light rain and drizzle. Tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop down into the mid to upper 30s across the county warning area. However, cloud cover and elevated winds, around 15 mph, will likely keep frost from forming. Low stratus should start to clear out by the early morning hours west to east. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to climb up into the 60s. Low temperatures tomorrow night are forecast to drop down into the lower to mid 30s across the northern half of the warning area. Unlike tonight, winds are forecast to be on the lighter side allowing frost to potentially form. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the Central Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the region Wednesday bringing forth chances for more precipitation. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side through the middle of the week as the cooler airmass lingers across the Plains. Thus, temperatures are forecast to range from the 60s to low 70s through Friday. Daily chances for thunderstorms returns from Wednesday night into the weekend. NSSL machine learning program and the CSU machine learning program are pegging Friday with a low chance of Severe weather mainly across the southern half of the county warning area. It is possible this low chance of severe weather shifts further south. Temperatures will warm this weekend as an upper level ridge begins to build across the Central US. This warm pattern will continue into early next with conditions drying out. The NBM 25th to 75th percentiles have high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to the mid 90s. Thus, fairly high confidence on above normal temperatures to start out next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: The low-level deck of stratus is ahead of schedule with bases soon (within the next hour) moving out from overtop of both terminal sites this morning. Following the clearance of these low-level clouds, VFR conditions are expected to maintain through the rest of the period. Winds this morning out of the north will likely be at their strongest/gustiest point of the day with speeds starting near 15-20MPH and gusting as high as 25-30MPH. Higher surface pressuring moving in to the areas today will gradually drag wind speeds down through the day with light and variable conditions likely to take over after 2z. Wind speeds overnight tonight will veer towards more of a east to southeasterly direction for Wednesday. No precipitation or other aviation hazards will be expected following the clearance of the MVFR ceiling this morning. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Stump DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Stump  278 FXUS65 KABQ 191134 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 534 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 - The threat of rapid fire spread becomes more isolated to the lower to middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. - Stray erratic and gusty winds from virga showers will impact a few spots across northwestern and north-central NM this afternoon. - Afternoon thunderstorm activity increases over eastern New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 103 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 While dry southwesterly winds remain over western NM, higher moisture alongside northeasterly to easterly winds resides through eastern NM into parts of the Rio Grande Valley bringing a nice change to the recent stretch of critical fire weather conditions. The strong jetmax rounding an H5 low has ejected out over the Great Plains last night with a loitering H5 shortwave trough over UT/NV this morning. While dry southwesterly flow remains aloft over the Desert Southwest, winds will not be nearly as strong as what was observed Monday. Meanwhile, a potent cold front has backed southwestward across eastern NM bringing gusty northeasterly winds of 35 to 45 mph to areas from Clayton to Clovis overnight. This front will bring gusty easterly to southeasterly winds thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into Santa Fe and Albuquerque around sunrise this morning. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph can be expected before winds veer southerly by mid-day and afternoon, staying breezy to windy all afternoon. While most areas will remain dry, there is enough moisture to allow for isolated virga showers to develop over portions of the northwestern highlands along the Continental Divide into the Tusas and Jemez Mts late this afternoon. Stray and erratic gusty winds with little to no accompanying rainfall will be the main hazard from this, impacting outdoor activities in the area. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning continues to see numerical model guidance advertising the aforementioned cold front through eastern NM which had been ushered back stage east toward TX/OK advance back westward thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley. With the loitering H5 shortwave still over UT and northern AZ, southwesterly flow aloft remaining over NM will again try to sharpen a dryline feature somewhere N-S along the central highlands Wednesday afternoon. There remains considerable forecast uncertainty regarding afternoon convective potential thru eastern NM. There is a clear demarcation between the moist continental airmass behind the aforementioned cold front and the moist maritime airmass associated with southerly return flow from the Gulf advecting northward into the Permian Basin and southeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Thunderstorm activity is firing up along this sharp surface boundary over OK into the TX Panhandle this hour. However, this surface boundary will become more diffuse by Wednesday through eastern NM, and numerical model guidance has a wide range of latitudinal solutions of how far north/south the Gulf moisture reaches into eastern NM Wednesday. This yields two scenarios for many areas of east-central and southeastern NM regarding thunderstorm potential. One being the NAM solution which favors the more stable continental airmass further south with relatively lower Td's in the 40s with perhaps just a few stray showers and thunderstorms along a dryline immediately east of the central mountain chain. The second being a more convectively bullish scenario favored by the deterministic GFS where the warmer and more unstable Gulf moisture is further north into eastern NM allowing for scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorm activity first beginning along the dryline over the central highlands of NM before progressing eastward toward TX in the evening. In fact, the SPC has issued a conditionally marginal risk for strong/severe thunderstorm activity thru the southeastern quadrant of the state Wednesday afternoon. Bottom line, Wednesday's thunderstorm potential for eastern NM boils down to how far north the warm more unstable Gulf moisture can push. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 103 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Outflow from any thunderstorm activity Wednesday evening will push low-level moisture back west to and thru the gaps of the central mountain chain again. Dry westerlies advance back east Thursday afternoon as the loitering H5 trough over UT finally gets escorted out of the area and moves along eastward over CO. This shifts any thunderstorm activity eastward along a sharpening dryline feature favored close to the TX border Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday sees continued dry conditions with lighter winds across western and central NM thanks to weaker flow aloft to the northeast of a 575dm H5 low over the northern Baja Peninsula. A cold front backing southward into northeastern NM from CO will advance thru eastern NM and up to the central mountain chain Saturday. With a ridge of high pressure building overhead, this will set the stage for daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorm activity favoring development along the central mountain chain first. Subsequent outflow boundaries look to initiate secondary convection later in the day and evening thru central and eastern NM, with moisture steadily increasing precipitation chances a bit further west each day into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front has advanced thru eastern NM bringing gusty northeasterly winds 15 to 25 mph this hour. It will push thru the gaps of the central mountain chain to KSAF and KABQ by 13Z to 14Z bringing gusty winds of 20-30kts. Patchy IFR/MVFR ceilings have also developed along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts and central highlands. These ceilings will clear this morning as southerly to southwesterly winds pick up thru western and central NM. Northeasterly winds through eastern NM will quickly veer easterly by late morning and southeasterly this afternoon. Most areas will see gusts reaching 20-35kts this afternoon, with a few spots through northwestern NM favoring the Continental Divide and the Jemez Mts near KLAM seeing erratic strong gusts from virga showers. Virga induced erratic gusty winds could reach KSAF but confidence was too low to include mention of this at this time. As winds overall taper off most areas late this evening, the cold front across eastern NM will have been pushed back toward TX, advancing westward again and through the gaps of the central mountain chain late this evening and tonight. This will produce another east canyon wind at KSAF, and potentially again at KABQ. How it moves around the Sandia Mts will determine that however. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 While a cold front has brought a significant uptick in moisture alongside northeasterly winds veering southeasterly later today through eastern NM, drier southwesterly winds will remain along and west of the central mountain chain. The exception will be early this morning when the aforementioned cold front briefly surges thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the middle Rio Grande Valley into Santa Fe and ABQ. Any low-level moisture increase from this will be quickly ushered back out by the increasing dry southwesterly winds. Prevailing winds will be considerably less than what was observed Monday, but still strong enough to combine with humidity falling below 10 percent to produce critical fire weather conditions into the middle Rio Grande Valley and nearby south-central highlands south of the Manzano Mountains for several hours this afternoon. This has warranted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for the middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and early evening. A similar setup is favored Wednesday in this area, and yet another Red Flag Warning focused on the southern half of the middle Rio Grande Valley will have to be evaluated. Eastern NM sees the aforementioned cold front bringing lower temperatures and higher humidity ushered back east toward TX this afternoon. The higher moisture advances west each night, getting ushered back east toward TX each afternoon today through Thursday. Any afternoon thunderstorm activity thru eastern NM will favor areas along a sharpening dryline, although there is considerable uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 76 44 76 42 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 71 36 73 31 / 10 10 10 0 Cuba............................ 73 42 74 39 / 10 10 5 0 Gallup.......................... 74 37 74 35 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 73 43 72 41 / 10 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 78 42 77 39 / 10 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 75 44 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 78 52 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 75 48 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 78 42 79 39 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 83 45 84 43 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 65 36 66 33 / 10 30 20 5 Los Alamos...................... 71 51 71 49 / 10 10 20 10 Pecos........................... 71 43 70 43 / 10 10 30 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 42 69 41 / 10 30 20 10 Red River....................... 59 35 59 34 / 10 40 30 10 Angel Fire...................... 63 30 64 30 / 10 30 40 20 Taos............................ 71 39 73 36 / 10 20 20 10 Mora............................ 67 41 66 42 / 10 30 30 40 Espanola........................ 79 48 79 45 / 10 10 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 73 49 72 47 / 10 10 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 75 47 75 45 / 10 10 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 81 55 81 54 / 10 10 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 82 54 83 52 / 10 10 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 84 52 84 49 / 10 10 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 83 54 84 52 / 10 10 5 0 Belen........................... 86 50 86 47 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 83 53 83 51 / 10 10 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 85 49 85 46 / 5 5 5 0 Corrales........................ 84 54 85 51 / 10 10 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 85 50 86 47 / 0 5 5 0 Placitas........................ 79 54 78 52 / 10 10 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 83 54 84 51 / 10 10 10 0 Socorro......................... 87 56 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 76 50 75 48 / 10 5 20 5 Tijeras......................... 78 50 76 48 / 10 5 20 5 Edgewood........................ 77 46 75 44 / 10 5 20 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 42 77 40 / 5 5 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 70 44 68 45 / 0 10 30 20 Mountainair..................... 78 46 78 44 / 0 0 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 77 48 78 46 / 0 0 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 81 54 82 53 / 00 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 73 52 71 50 / 0 5 20 5 Capulin......................... 62 35 59 40 / 5 20 30 40 Raton........................... 67 41 65 42 / 5 20 30 50 Springer........................ 69 41 66 43 / 0 30 30 40 Las Vegas....................... 66 44 64 44 / 10 30 30 50 Clayton......................... 66 42 61 46 / 0 20 30 50 Roy............................. 68 42 62 45 / 0 30 30 50 Conchas......................... 75 47 69 48 / 0 30 40 40 Santa Rosa...................... 76 47 68 47 / 0 30 30 40 Tucumcari....................... 75 48 70 51 / 0 20 40 40 Clovis.......................... 76 50 68 52 / 0 20 40 30 Portales........................ 77 50 70 51 / 0 20 40 30 Fort Sumner..................... 79 50 72 50 / 0 20 50 30 Roswell......................... 85 57 77 56 / 0 20 30 30 Picacho......................... 83 51 77 50 / 0 10 30 10 Elk............................. 83 49 80 48 / 0 5 30 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ106. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24  345 FXUS61 KBOX 191137 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 737 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory extended into Wednesday night for the southern outer waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Record heat possible Tuesday with marginal humidity, kicking off a multi-day stretch of anomalously hot temperatures (in the mid to upper 90s away from the South Coast). - Isolated thunderstorms possible today, mainly north and west of I- 95. Better chances for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday with strong damaging winds the main risk. - Cooler and unsettled weather is possible Memorial Day Weekend, but confidence remains low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record heat possible Tuesday with marginal humidity, kicking off a multi-day stretch of anomalously hot temperatures (in the mid to upper 90s away from the South Coast). A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of southern New England on Tuesday and Wednesday, not necessarily because of the expectation for an exceptionally oppressive heat/humidity combo but due to a very early arrival of well above normal heat for mid May in southern New England. This anomalously warm airmass comes courtesy of a building mid level ridge today pushing 850 mb temps into the 18-20C range which wold be 2-3 SD above climatology. Given an expected well mixed boundary layer surface temperatures should be able to reach well into the 90s. Warmest locations will be the CT and Merrimack valleys where downslope flow will help push temps into the mid 90s with low to mid 90s elsewhere. The exception will be along the south coast where that SW wind trajectory off of the ocean keeps temps comfortably in the mid 70s. The ridge begins to break down on Wednesday with falling heights, but even so temps will remain elevated ahead of the cold front; increasing cloud cover ahead of the surface trough will help keep temps a few degrees cooler, but many locations inland still see low to mid 90s away from the water. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s (discounting the outlier NAM) will make it feel humid but not tropical by any means. KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated thunderstorms possible today, mainly north and west of I-95. Better chances for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday with strong damaging winds the main risk. When it comes to thunderstorm threat each day, Wednesday looks to be the more favorable day for strong to severe storm coverage because while both days feature the necessary moisture and instability, the lift mechanism is much more robust on Wednesday (the cold front). Those elevated temps and dewpoints will contribute to instability values on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg of surface based CAPE each day while dewpoints are in the low to mid 60s as previously mentioned. 0- 6km bulk shear values, while fine (25-30 kts), are less favorable for organized severe weather than they are further north where the stronger mid level flow resides. So, the ingredients are there for some strong to severe storms. The lifting mechanism is much less robust on Tuesday, but guidance indicates a weak surface trough and mid level shortwave which will likely be enough to kick off some storms. Despite very strong low level lapse rates, the longevity and strength/height of these storms will be limited by poor mid level lapse rates. Wednesday the cold front will serve as a better lifting mechanism, timed coincident with peak diurnal heating so would expect more coverage of storms and any storms that do form have the chance to produce strong to damaging winds primarily given inverted- v soundings. KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler and unsettled weather is possible Memorial Day Weekend, but confidence remains low. After high pressure delivers dry and seasonable weather to end the week, attention turns to the holiday weekend. Unfortunately it's not a cut-and-dry forecast at this point (5-7 days out) as guidance remains in two distinct camps. One would result in a cool (or downright cold for late May) and wet weekend while another keeps things dry and seasonable. Up to this point deterministic guidance has indicated a rainy Sat/Sun ahead of a low coming out of the OH Valley while the AI guidance like the AIGFS and ECMWF AIFS keep it suppressed to the south by high pressure, at least through Sunday. Obviously this would have a big impact on the weekend, with respect to both rain and temperatures. For what it's worth, the latest GFS guidance has shown that suppression to the south as well, but can't put any confidence in an individual run. Ensemble guidance continues to show a decent chance of rain for the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAF Update: Today and Tonight...High confidence. VFR. Iso'd TSRA possible by the afternoon, though confidence is increasing in impacts to BOS, BED, BDL, and ORH. S-SW wind 8 to 12 kt, gusts to 25 kt developing this morning into the afternoon. VFR overnight, with MVFR ceilings across the Cape and Islands. Gusts drop off for terminals not on the Cape and Islands after 00z tonight. Wednesday...High confidence. VFR. Scattered TSRA along and ahead of a cold front in the afternoon and evening. S-SW wind 8-10kt with gusts 20-25 kts turning NW behind the cold front between 15-00Z. Strong gusts possible in any thunderstorms. KBOS...High confidence in TAF. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday through Friday: VFR. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday: High confidence. Small craft advisories remain in effect 12z Tuesday through Wednesday evening. SW winds will be increasing to around 15-25 kt Tuesday and remain so through Wednesday, higher over the southern waters. Seas will also be building to around 4-6 ft, with some 7 footers possible Tuesday night over the southern waters. Mainly dry weather prevails through Tuesday night, although fog may develop both tonight and Tuesday night. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain showers likely. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Tue May 19... BOS 90/2017 BDL 94/1962 PVD 91/2017 ORH 92/1962 Record Highs for Wed May 20... BOS 91/1996 BDL 99/1996 PVD 95/1996 ORH 91/1903 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ002>004. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ003-004. MA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MAZ003>007-010>019-026. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ006-007-013>019. RI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001>004. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...BW/Hrencecin MARINE...BW CLIMATE...BW/Hrencecin  361 FXUS63 KOAX 191137 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 637 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler weather moves in on Tuesday with potential for morning frost for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday. - Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into Thursday continuing on/off through Friday. - Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Severe weather has cleared to the southeast this evening leaving cool, cloudy conditions in place for the overnight hours. We have a large temperature gradient across the area with temperatures in the upper 40s across northeast Nebraska, to low-to-mid 60s in southwest Iowa and far southeast Nebraska. The HRRR continues to show some potential for a couple additional storms developing over far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa around midnight tonight. If anything were to develop, it likely wouldn't be severe. Skies will be clearing Tuesday morning as high pressure builds over the area. Cooler air mass remains in place under northerly flow. Overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday we light winds and clear skies contribute to temperatures dropping into the low-to-mid 30s across northeast Nebraska, possibly necessitating a frost advisory for this area. Places more across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa will see temperatures drop into the upper 30s to low 40s, though a few outlying areas around Omaha and Lincoln could still see some patchy frost. High pressure remains centered over the region on Wednesday keeping temperatures cooler than normal with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. The trough over the northern Rockies starts to deepen on Wednesday, re-amplifying southwesterly flow across our region. This will bring moisture back to our area with increasing clouds into the afternoon. Rain chances return late Wednesday into Thursday as the trough over the northern Rockies starts to deepen, re-amplifying southwesterly flow across our region which will lead back to moisture advecting back into our area from the Gulf. As a warm front lifts into northern Kansas on Wednesday, we see isentropic upglide over our area lead to shower and storm development starting Wednesday night continuing into Thursday. We don't actually see the warm front lift into our area until Friday, keeping temperatures cool on Thursday as well. Friday the warm front lifts north, getting wrapped up into a developing surface low over the Northern Plains. This will reinvigorating shower and storm chances through the morning hours. We may see a small window of clearing before the cold front arrives Friday afternoon/evening. We should watch this period with some potential for severe storms, but at this time there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the details of this system. Confidence significantly decreases in the forecast going into next weekend as significant differences in the forecast of the upper-level pattern develop. Ensembles suggest a trend back toward warmer-than-normal temperatures toward the latter-half of the weekend with low chances for storms possible Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR ceilings will gradually improve through the morning, scattering out at KOFK by 15Z, KLNK by 16Z and KOMA by 17Z. North winds will remain gusty into the afternoon, before dropping below 12 kts shortly after 20Z, and veering to the northeast overnight. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...KG  340 FXUS65 KPUB 191136 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 536 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost and Freeze highlights remain in place for portions of the plains through 8 AM. - Cooler and wetter weather expected today and tomorrow, with best chances for widespread precip coming in tonight. - Strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible on Thursday, especially on our eastern plains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 The post frontal cold airmass is finally here to stay, and critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for the next several days. Temperatures have fallen into the 30s and 40s across our plains and mountain valleys. With some lingering moisture and upslope in place, fog and freezing fog will be possible across the Pikes Peak region, the Arkansas River Valley, down into the Wet Mountain Valley and our mountain adjacent plains west of I-25. Frost Advisories have been been issued for many of these places that are into their growing seasons by now, and northern El Paso County remains in a Freeze Warning through 8 AM this morning as well. Temperatures look to stay cool under mostly cloudy skies today, though some clearing will be possible later this afternoon, especially further east where upsloping will be less impactful. Daytime highs are likely to remain in the 50s across the 1-25 corridor, with 60s for the San Luis Valley and the eastern plains. Some very light rain may be possible over our mountain adjacent plains and eastern mountains this morning as upslope deepens, but better chances for wetting rains move in after sunset as shortwave energy embedded in another trough out west comes through the region. Most areas along and east of the Continental Divide, and along and west of the I-25 corridor are expected to see chances for rain tonight into Wednesday morning. Snow levels look to drop down to 8,000 or 9,000ft in some areas, which should put some light snow accumulations on the higher peaks of the Sangres, the Wets, and the central mountains through the overnight hours. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night/early this morning in most places, though the Palmer Divide may drop down into the 33 to 34F degree range once again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday.. We start out our Wednesday morning cool, cloudy, and with precip chances for most areas, but dry out gradually through the morning hours, especially for areas south of Highway 50. After a morning lull in precip chances though, another approaching trough looks to bring showers and thunderstorms back for most of the high country and portions of our plains. Daytime highs in the 50s and 60s and more stable conditions on the plains should limit any chances for severe storms as the trough approaches, but clearing over the high country may lead to a few stronger storms. Thursday.. Thursday could be an interesting day as our next trough digs in to our northwest and brings stronger forcing for possible severe thunderstorms to our region. Models bring its axis into western CO through the afternoon, with southerly and southeasterly surface flow out ahead of if it through much of the day. This brings 40 and 50 degree dewpoints back into the plains, and juices up instability as well. Shear looks to be forecast around 35kt to 45kt for much of the eastern plains, where 50 degree dewpoints look to be possible. Models are not in great agreement about where a dryline may set up obviously with the event being this far out, but it is safe to say that Thursday will need to be watched closely for severe potential across our plains. Friday Onwards.. Models keeps us in cool northwest flow behind the front on Friday, though showers and thunderstorms look to remain possible, especially over and near the higher terrain. We warm up through the weekend as high pressure tries to build to our southwest, but enough moisture looks to stay over the region to keep at least slight chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain through the weekend. Winds look to stay on the weak side and humidity values look to stay above critical thresholds through the extended as well, so at this time fire danger is not expected. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 536 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 KALS: Mostly VFR conditions through 24 hours. Gusty southwest winds will pick up later this morning, gusting 25-30 knots through this evening. Some showers may move off of the mountains after 00Z or so, bringing the potential for -SHRA and briefly lowered cigs and vis into MVFR overnight and into Wednesday morning. KCOS: Brief light rain and drizzle will linger into late morning, with breezy southeast winds and MVFR cigs. More widespread rain showers will set in later tonight, with low-MVFR to high-IFR lasting overnight and into Wednesday morning. KPUB: Flow will remain ESE to ENE throughout the period, with low MVFR to IFR clouds. Chances for rain increase late this afternoon, becoming more widespread across the area after 00-03Z this evening. Even after rain dissipates late tonight, still expecting low clouds and some patchy mist/fog into Thursday morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ084. Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ085>089- 094>096. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO  382 FXUS64 KCRP 191139 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 639 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 630 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storm tonight into Wednesday morning - Medium to high shower and thunderstorm chances tonight through next Monday. Additional total rainfall between 3.0-5.0". - Dangerous swimming conditions with a moderate to high risk of rip currents along the Middle Texas Coast through this week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 As of writing this, we're dealing with a cluster of strong storms in a bowing segment across the Brush Country into the Coastal Plains. Damaging winds is the primary threat, followed by small hail mixing in. This will likely reach the coast at about 09Z (4AM). We'll have to keep a close eye on the RIJ on velocity data. Nevertheless, this rain will prime the soils for additional heavy rain later this week and pose a higher threat for flash flooding but more efficient runoff. A cold front will move into North Texas through the day today, likely developing a line of strong showers and thunderstorms along it that is forecast to propagate down into South Texas late tonight. This line will pose another marginal risk of severe storms, with damaging winds and large hail the primary threat. Following tonight's storms, there will be a lull in rain activity into the day Wednesday but additional rounds of medium to high rain chances will continue through this upcoming weekend and even into early next week due to a series of mid-level disturbances interacting with near climatological max moisture. Not including this morning's rainfall, total rainfall tonight through next Monday, ranges from 3.00" along the coast to around 5.00" along our northern counties from La Salle to Victoria. High end (10%) rainfall totals range from 4.50-6.00". There will be a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding through much of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The overnight system continues to move to the east this morning, leaving behind mostly clear skies for KCOT and clearing skies for KALI/KCRP. This will be short lived as SE'ly flow returns bringing back a VFR cloud deck. Tonight, the area see's another chance for a line of storms moving through from west to east from 06Z-12Z. Some terminals have PROB30/TEMPO groups to account for the degradation of flight categories and for gusty and erratic winds. Outside of precipitation, MVFR CIGs return. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Strong thunderstorms with wind gusts over 35 knots will pass through the waters early this morning. A moderate to occasionally fresh breeze (BF 4-5) is expected to continue through this afternoon, allowing for an extension of the Small Craft Advisory. Winds will relax to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Wednesday and continue through the end of the work week. A line of showers and thunderstorms will pass through all the waters early this morning, then a lull in rain activity during the day. Medium chances (50-60%) for shower and thunderstorms are expected tonight through Friday night before increasing to higher chances (60- 80%) Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 79 90 77 / 30 50 30 20 Victoria 91 75 89 73 / 30 60 40 20 Laredo 100 77 95 73 / 10 50 50 80 Alice 95 77 92 74 / 20 60 40 30 Rockport 90 79 89 78 / 30 50 20 10 Cotulla 99 75 93 72 / 10 60 50 90 Kingsville 92 78 91 76 / 20 50 30 20 Navy Corpus 87 80 87 79 / 20 50 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ245- 343>347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...AE/82  440 FXUS63 KDMX 191140 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 640 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler today through the end of the week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temperatures tonight reach the mid to upper 30s in northern Iowa with patchy frost possible there. - Rain chances return late Thursday into Friday. -Warming trend this weekend with 80s returning by Sunday through early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The surface low continues to move east across the area with associated rain pushing into eastern Iowa early this morning. While the bulk of the rainfall has come to an end, some wrap around light sprinkles may be possible in northern Iowa through today as the low continues to slide east. Today will be markedly cooler as much cooler air filters in behind the cold front. Temperatures early this morning are in the mid 40s across northwest Iowa with 50s central and southeast Iowa still in the mid 60s. That cooler air northwest will continue to spread across the state today and highs will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will also be brisk out of the northwest at 20-30 mph owed to a modestly enhanced pressure gradient across the area from the departing low and incoming high pressure, along with subsidence and cold air advection. Skies clear through the day as high pressure settles across the state. Will clear skies and light wind overnight temperatures are expected to fall off quickly overnight. Low temperatures in northern Iowa will fall to the mid to upper 30s which may result in patchy frost, which would impact those with sensitive plants. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 By Tuesday evening a large surface high pressure area will be building down the northern High Plains and on Tuesday night will settle across Iowa and Minnesota. This will lead to rapidly diminishing winds around sunset Tuesday and much cooler temperatures Tuesday night as winds go light or calm and skies clear out, especially near the Minnesota border closer to the center of the high and where chances for high cirrus clouds are lowest. The result is forecast low temperatures early Wednesday morning in the mid-to- upper 30s in our northern and western counties, but any frost potential will be dependent on skies remaining clear and winds becoming calm. This possibility will be better assessed tonight and tomorrow. From Wednesday through the end of this week a weak 500 MB low will meander across southwestern Canada, with cyclonic flow extending down across the U.S. Rockies and near Iowa. A series of shortwave impulses moving through the flow will result in a return of rain chances for our forecast area. Initially, on Wednesday, the proximity of the slowly departing surface high pressure area and associated dry air will inhibit any precipitation chances. By Thursday atmospheric moisture and instability will be gradually increasing however, and around Thursday night and Friday the most pronounced 500 MB trough will move overhead and bring higher rain chances (50-70%). In wake of that trough, next weekend, weak subsidence may follow along with weak surface riding, supporting mostly dry weather and much lower rain chances (10-20%). Also of note is a consistent signal for some degree of thermal ridging around Sunday into early next week, especially from the EC and GEM, lending confidence to warmer temperatures at the end of the current 7-day forecast. Climate Prediction Center outlooks also support a likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures heading into next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR to IFR conditions blanket the state this morning with low stratus at all sites and patchy light drizzle mainly central ant east at KDSM/KALO. Stratus will linger through today with a return to VFR around 18-00z. Wind will be breezy out of the northwest with gusts of 20-25 kts thorugh much of the day, diminishing after 00z. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hagenhoff LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Hagenhoff  477 FXUS64 KJAN 191141 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 641 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are possible over the western half of the area this evening. - Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances this week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through tonight: Another warm and humid day is on tap for the CWA but by this evening severe storms will be possible over our western zones and spread east into central Mississippi before weakening. As compared to yesterday, the "Marginal Risk" for severe storms has been expended eastward. Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave trough over the northern Plains and extending up into Canada. This shortwave trough will swing east through the period and its accompanying surface low will drag a cold front toward our CWA. As our winds aloft will remain southwesterly, the cold front will lose its upper level support and stall across the northwest portions of our CWA later tonight. Latest surface analysis still had a ridge nosing west across the Gulf coast states. This ridge will help maintain our moist airmass with PWATs around an inch and three quarters along with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Daytime heating of our moist airmass will lead to a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but these storms should remain subsevere. More intense convection is expected to our west along and just ahead of the approaching cold front. These storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail as they move into our extreme western zones by early evening. The severe potential will become less the further into our CWA they progress and current thinking is that the severe potential will end close to midnight over central Mississippi before spreading into east Mississippi. Rainfall with this system is expected to be beneficial with the greatest amounts along and northwest of the Natchez Trace. Temperatures today are forecast in the lower 90s again but record highs are in the mid 90s. /22/ Wednesday through Monday: A frontal boundary will continue to progress towards the southeast before stalling north of the CWA. Ongoing showers and storm chances are expected through the extended period. Highs (ranging in the 80s) will remain near seasonal averages and lows (upper 60s/near 70 degrees) will run +10 degrees above seasonal averages over the extended as well. As the boundary stalls, multiple shortwave disturbances are expected to traverse the region, providing addition moisture and widespread rainfall chances Wednesday, lasting through the weekend. Increasing rain chances will begin Thursday, reaching 95% on Friday and up to 90% Saturday and Sunday. Organized severe weather is not anticipated as instability won't be as favorable, however, an isolated severe storm or two may be possible each day. Estimate rainfall amounts may range from 1.0-3.5 inches over the course of this week and the weekend. Received rainfall will help alleviate the ongoing drought over the ArkLaMiss region. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR/IFR cigs wl continue across the south and cntrl TAF sites through 15Z. After 15Z VFR conditions wl prevail areawide until SHRA/TSRA move into the nw during the evening and spread over the cntrl TAF sites by 06Z and result in lower flight restrictions. MVFR/IFR cigs wl be psbl in the south again by 09Z. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 89 71 86 69 / 30 60 70 50 Meridian 90 70 88 68 / 10 20 30 30 Vicksburg 90 71 85 69 / 30 70 70 70 Hattiesburg 89 7089 68 / 10 10 40 20 Natchez 90 72 86 70 / 40 60 60 60 Greenville 91 71 84 68 / 40 80 80 70 Greenwood 91 71 85 69 / 30 70 80 60 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/SW/22  561 FXUS64 KSJT 191143 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 643 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening... Cold front just north of Childress at 130 AM expected to move along I-20 mid morning around 9 AM and then slow down as it moves south along a San Angelo to Brownwood line 3-4 PM. While isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this morning in the Big Country, a larger complex of strong to severe storms is expected to develop in the Concho Valley to Brownwood in maximum heating this afternoon. Complex then moves south and east into the I-10 corridor and NW Hill country this evening. With CAPES of 4000 J/kg and 0-6KM bulk shears of 30 to 35 KTS, supercells with very large hail over 2 inches possible. The complex of storms should move south of West Central by midnight, ending most of the severe weather threat. Precipital water values around 1.5 inches indicate efficient rainfall producers, and localized flooding possible, especially in urban areas. .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 By the time Wednesday night rolls around, another low pressure trough strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and continues moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in place for Wednesday night. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday night. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding through Wednesday night. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this trough moves east for the later half of the work Week. A couple of embedded disturbances within the flow are also being indicated as well, which offers support for multiple rounds of rain. In the meantime, high rain chances (70%) are in place for Thursday. Additional rounds of thunderstorms remain a possibility through at least Friday. We will have to monitor closely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential through the end of this week. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 By the time Wednesday night rolls around, another low pressure trough strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and continues moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in place for Wednesday night. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday night. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding through Wednesday night. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with large hail and damagingwinds being the main hazards. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this trough moves east for the later half of the work Week. A couple of embedded disturbances within the flow are also being indicated as well, which offers support for multiple rounds of rain. In the meantime, high rain chances (70%) are in place for Thursday. Additional rounds of thunderstorms remain a possibility through at least Friday. We will have to monitor closely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential through the end of this week. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR stratus and light fog will become VFR mid to late morning. A cold front will be move into KABI 1230Z with gusty north winds and a few showers through 15Z. Cold front should move south to KSJT and KBBD in the mid/late afternoon with scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorms, which will move south to KSOA and KJCT in the evening. Occasional IFR visibilities in heavy rain, and an outside chance of hail and damaging winds possible with the storms this afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 88 62 77 64 / 80 40 30 90 San Angelo 92 63 79 63 / 80 60 50 90 Junction 91 65 83 64 / 50 80 60 90 Brownwood 89 64 80 64 / 80 60 40 80 Sweetwater 87 61 77 63 / 60 40 40 90 Ozona 90 64 81 63 / 40 60 50 90 Brady 89 64 79 64 / 70 80 50 90 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...04  535 FXUS66 KMTR 191142 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 442 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1026 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 - Diurnally driven winds, with onshore winds during the afternoon and early evening. - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek with seasonal temperatures returning late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1026 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 (Tonight through Tuesday) The forecast appears to be on track, with broad upper level troughing holding over much of the western U.S. while high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. The good news, is that our breezy offshore winds have eased substantially leaving us with fairly calm weather in return. Tonight, skies will remain clear and temperatures will generally fall into the 50s for the valleys, perhaps upper 40s for some coastal sites and the southern Salinas Valley. At higher elevations, a thermal belt will exist as temperatures fall into the mid 50s to low 60s and may still have some northerly winds. For those in the valleys, winds will generally be light and variable. Tomorrow, another warm day will be on tap. The question will be, how do the temperatures pan out? Offshore flow won't be as prevalent, which means there could be less of a downsloping / warming of the air affect. But, that upper level high slowly creeps towards us and the marine layer is essentially negligible. Opted to blend a bit of the observations from Monday to the NBM giving us a similar forecast, to what occurred yesterday. The interior Bay Area valleys should make it into the 80s, perhaps near 90 degrees, while coastal communities experience a tighter gradient of highs in the 60s to low 70s. The San Francisco Peninsula should be similar, with the Pacific side having temps range from the mid 60s to low 70s, while the Bay side ranges from the upper 70s to mid 80s. And finally the Central Coast, interior locations rise into the mid 70s to mid 80s, while coastal communities vary from the mid 60s to the low 80s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1026 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 (Tuesday night through next Monday) No major changes to the extended forecast. Upper level troughing looks to keep hold over the western US through at least Wednesday, with that Pacific high slowly peeking into northern CA. This should bring a return of onshore flow to the region and eventually the marine layer. Warm weather looks to linger through at least Wednesday, with Thursday potentially seeing a slight change in temperatures if the marine layer develops. Guidance for Thursday caps it at 500ft at best, with the marine layer getting to 1000ft by Friday. The marine layer appears to better establish itself Friday night into Saturday, likely getting to around 1000ft again. Will need to keep an eye on this as it will affect how temperatures pan && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 436 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR through the forecast period. There is a 15-25% chc of seeing MVFR CIGs by the very end of the TAF period. Not high enough confidence to include in TAF just yet. Breezy onshore flow expected again this afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light NE flow expected this AM then switch onshore this afternoon with gust up to 20 kt. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Hedging toward the 20-25% for some CIGs developing by 12Z Wednesday. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 436 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 The overall sea state continues to improve with decreasing winds and seas. Fresh northerly breezes will persist over the outer waters north of Pigeon Point leading to hazardous conditions through at least Wednesday night. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  655 FXUS64 KMEG 191144 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 644 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Hot and humid conditions are expected through Tuesday, with high temperatures reaching or exceeding 90 degrees in many locations. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by Tuesday afternoon, bringing a slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for damaging wind gusts. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist daily beginning Tuesday through the remainder of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Upper air observations continue to show a large upper ridge axis centered over the Atlantic coastline with a trough ejecting into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front currently extends southwest from the Midwest into the southern Plains with a broad area of southwesterly flow extending into the Midsouth. The combination of southerlies and upper ridging has allowed for temperatures to eclipse 90 F Monday. Convection and the strengthening of a surface high over the northern CONUS will kick the front eastward through Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to have time to reach back into the upper 80s and low 90s again before the front arrives, which is progged to occur through Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front as it moves into the region. Plenty of MLCAPE (2500 - 3000 J/kg) will be in place by early afternoon just ahead of the boundary. However, the upper trough in the plains will have ejected into Canada by this point, leaving only paltry upper level winds and forcing with less than 25 kts. So, storms may struggle to organize, especially ahead of the front. A branch of the subtropical jet will impinge on the region from the southwest, but the stronger winds are expected to remain above 500 mb, leaving little to no impact on the effective shear. Regardless, current HRRR guidance does display ~900 J/kg DCAPE, supporting a marginal/slight threat for damaging wind gusts with any thunderstorms. The hail threat will be muted due to the weak shear and sub-optimal mid-level lapse rates with little to no expectation for tornadoes given near-zero SRH. Any troughing will decrease in amplitude throughout the southeastern CONUS quickly into Wednesday. The front will then stall somewhere within the region, washing out as upper ridging returns. Temperatures will drop in response to cloud cover and rainfall, bringing highs into the upper 70s and low 80s through the end of the work week. However, the front will not have made a significant dent on the abundance of moisture that has plagued us since last weekend, keeping elevated rainfall and thunderstorm chances in the forecast into next week. Looking at LREF guidance, there is enough agreement regarding QPF that the probability of 3"+ of rainfall exceeds 50% throughout the majority of the region. Severe weather chances are still uncertain as the upper pattern remains at a low-amplitude, but models (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) gradually increase large-scale troughing with a few, smaller waves embedded in the flow. If these features are able to remain in the forecast come Wednesday through Friday, low-end severe chances could materialize with higher effective shear. In summary, a cooler, rainier forecast is expected through at least next weekend with the potential for some severe weather depending on how the upper pattern shakes out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A tricky aviation forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours. Confidence in coverage of SHRAs and TSRAs remains in the 30 to 60 percent range through the period. VFR conditions will persist through late morning at all sites. A decaying complex of TSRA will move into the region from the NW by early afternoon. Hi-res guidance depicts this activity weakening and becoming scattered at JBR, MEM, and MKL. A trailing cold front will move into the region this evening with a weak surface low tracking NE along it. This will bring another round of precipitation to all sites. TCF guidance suggests that another round of TSRA will affect MEM, MKL, and JBR, mainly after 20/03Z. There is a low to medium chance that CIGs will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR at all sites, especially near where the frontal boundary sets up. There is a low to medium chance that lingering SHRAs will persist beyond this period. AC3 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future, with minimum relative humidity values remaining above 40%. Wetting rains will return beginning Tuesday, lasting through at least the end of the week with the potential for thunderstorms each afternoon. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...AC3  614 FXUS65 KBOI 191144 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 544 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory for the western Magic Valley until 8 AM MDT this morning. - Warming trend and continued generally dry the rest of the week. Monday should be the warmest day. - Cold front early Tuesday, then windy and turning cooler with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 248 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Patchy frost this morning in the western Magic Valley but Wednesday morning will be milder with no frost. Gradual warming trend today through Thursday as the main upper trough shifts east of the Continental Divide. However, another weaker upper trough, in BC early this morning, will dig southward into eastern ID Wednesday and limit the warming in our area. This second trough will be close enough to our CWA for a slight chance of showers in eastern Valley County Wednesday evening, and also slightly stronger wind in the Magic Valley Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, no eventful weather through Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 248 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 A ridge of high pressure will build over the Western US by the end of this week, bringing generally warm and dry conditions to the region through Monday. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees above normal. On Saturday, a quick moving shortwave trough will move through the region bringing low chances of showers and thunderstorms (<10% chance) over high terrain in southwest Idaho and the OR-NV border. The ridge will reach peak strength on Sunday, with high temperatures near 90F in the Treasure Valley. By Monday, there is widespread model agreement in a deep upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest. The low will then move into the region on Tuesday, cooling temperatures off by 10-20 degrees and bringing breezy winds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance). && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 537 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR. Virga/isolated showers re-developing Tuesday afternoon over high terrain, mainly the northeast OR/central ID mtns. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after Wed/06Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: transitioning from NW to W, 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: light and variable through the morning. Then, NW 5-10 kt Tue afternoon with occasional gusts around 15 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for IDZ016. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SA SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....SA  619 FXUS65 KGJT 191144 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 544 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures will impact the lower basins of northwest Colorado and northeast Utah Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Freeze Warnings are in effect for both mornings. - Temperatures will start to warm Tuesday onward, finally reaching near-to-above normal levels Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1002 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 FREEZE WARNINGS IN EFFECT: Radar returns are diminishing across the area though a stray shower along the I-70 corridor and areas just north can't be ruled out. Clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop thanks to the cold front that passed through yesterday. Freeze Warnings remain in effect for the Uinta Basin and northern valleys. Portions of the I-70 corridor may reach freezing or just below but coverage and timing won't last long enough to warrant any highlights there. Same for the southern valleys. The Freeze Watch for Tuesday night into Wednesday has been upgraded to a Warning with this evening's package for the northern valleys as models have not deviated from sub-freezing temperatures there. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER, SLOW WARMUP: An upper level trough will remain draped over the area through the end of the week but with drier air moving in, little in the way of precip is expected. Might see an odd shower over the higher terrain but for the most part we can expect partly cloudy skies as below normal highs Tuesday and Wednesday reach normal values towards the end of the week and above normal highs heading into the weekend. The next chance for precipitation looks to be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning as a system drops down from the north. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 537 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 A persistent band of low and mid level ceilings has held on through the night along a stationary frontal boundary draped across the region. This cloud cover will slowly erode this morning with more sunlight. Expect breakpoint conditions for KEGE, KASE, KHDN to persist until mid morning. Winds will pick up again this afternoon to gust around 20 mph at most of the terminals. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain a possibility along the Continental Divide this afternoon. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for COZ001-002. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002. UT...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for UTZ024. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  823 FXUS64 KMRX 191146 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 746 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 745 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Very warm temperatures Today and Wednesday with highs roughly 10 to 15 degrees above normal. - Increasing chances for showers and storms return Wednesday, with continued chances each day into the weekend, especially across the higher elevations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Mostly dry today, NBM has no POPS, but can't rule out a few isolated afternoon/evening showers and storms. Otherwise, very warm with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Near record highs at TYS and TRI. On Wednesday, models still show a short-wave trough pushing the ridge east and opening the door for a frontal passage. Showers and storms will increase in coverage in response to the lower heights and higher moisture. Highest POPs will be across the east TN mountains and Cumberland plateau. REFS and LREF instability probs show high odds that CAPE values will be less than 1000 J/kg. Combine this with mid-level lapse rates of 6 degrees or less and little to no shear, severe storms are not expected. On Thursday the frontal boundary lifts north and back into the area and provides focus for more showers and storms. The highest POPs will reside along the frontal boundary. It's hard to say exactly where it will be within our area. Instability and shear once again remain limited, so no severe threat for Thursday either. For Friday, ridging returns and the frontal boundary lifts north into KY. However, plenty of moisture and instability remains so scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again expected. No real changes during the weekend into early next week period. We will continue to have an unsettled pattern in place with an environment conducive to daily showers and storms. Overall, the severe threat remains low during this time due to lack of shear. QPF through the period will be very hit or miss. Some areas may see several inches of rain over the next 7 days while some see far less. This is due to the scattered nature of the convection. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 745 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR and dry weather expected today with generally light winds, maybe a gust to 15 knots at TYS this afternoon. Isolated convection post 18z to 01z or so is possible, but very low coverage and confidence. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 68 89 66 / 10 0 70 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 68 89 66 / 0 0 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 89 65 87 64 / 0 0 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 63 87 63 / 0 0 50 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...Wellington  882 FXUS63 KBIS 191149 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 649 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain well below normal through tonight when lows could fall to near or below freezing across much of western and central North Dakota. - Warmer Wednesday through Friday, with medium chances for showers and occasional thunderstorms beginning Wednesday evening. - Above normal temperatures favored this weekend and especially early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 648 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A batch of light rain showers is moving through south central North Dakota early this morning, with some isolated light rain or sprinkle activity to the north and east. Occasional areas of light rain or sprinkles will remain possible across the eastern two thirds of the state through mid to late afternoon as an upper level trough pivots through, with chances diminishing from west to east. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 424 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An upper level trough extends from central Manitoba to the Great Basin early this morning, cutting through western North Dakota. At the surface, the Northern Plains lie between low pressure over Wisconsin and high pressure building over Wyoming. Extensive cloud cover across all but northwest North Dakota has kept overnight temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s thus far. Could still see a few degrees of cooling underneath the clouds, with more rapid cooling and perhaps some patchy fog where the cloud cover clears in the northwest early this morning. Despite much of the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory trending towards not working out, do not plan on making any cancellations until temperatures begin rising for the day. Strong cyclonic curvature vorticity embedded through the trough will pivot eastward through the state through this afternoon. This keeps low chances for light rain showers and sprinkles in the forecast. The cloud cover should continue to erode from west to east throughout the day, allowing high temperatures to return to around 50 east to near 60 west, still around 10 to 15 degrees below normal. As the upper trough departs to the east this evening, the Wyoming surface high will slide into eastern South Dakota with a ridge axis extending northward through eastern North Dakota. This should provide a favorable set up for strong radiational cooling over the eastern two thirds of the state. The current NBM forecast calls for widespread lows around 30 to 35 across central and eastern North Dakota, which will necessitate another around of frost/freeze headlines late tonight into Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, on the back side of the surface high, which is forecast to line up underneath a low- amplitude mid level ridge, increasing southeasterly surface flow paired with increasing mid to high clouds should keep overnight temperatures above freezing in much of the western third of the state, except perhaps in sheltered areas across the southwest. An appreciable warm up to near or even above normal high temperatures in the 60s and 70s is forecast on Wednesday as a brief period of quasi-zonal flow is established over the Northern Plains ahead of a potent shortwave digging from Alberta southward into the Northern Rockies. The amplifying trough, which could feature a closed mid to upper low circulation along the Montana-Saskatchewan border, will turn flow aloft southwesterly for Thursday before the trough begins to shift eastward through the region on Friday. This could lead to a period of active weather beginning as early as late Wednesday afternoon in northwest North Dakota when high-resolution guidance is favoring the development of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, spreading southward and eastward through Wednesday evening. An ensemble-averaged CAPE/shear parameter space (on the order of 500 J/kg and 25 kts) does not appear to favor stronger convection, but direct surface wind gust output from CAMs shows potential for some gusty winds with any storm that develops, which fits the modeled inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. The highest chances for showers are Thursday into Friday when the NBM paints widespread medium chances (around 40 to 60 percent) across the state, with its axis of highest chances shifting from western North Dakota on Thursday to eastern North Dakota on Friday. A few afternoon and evening thunderstorms could develop each of these 2 days as well, but there is uncertainty in the location of an inverted surface trough which is favored to contain a ribbon of up to around 500 J/kg CAPE. This is also tied to areal uncertainty of the highest QPF through Friday, with ensemble clusters showing a meridional axis of high probabilities for at least 0.25" QPF and medium probabilities for at least 0.5" as far west as against the Montana border and as far east as from the Devils Lake Basin to between the James and Red River Valleys. This leads to total ensemble QPF threshold probabilities per the NBM as broadly medium for exceeding 0.25" and low for exceeding 0.5" across most of western and central North Dakota. Temperatures are forecast to remain closer to normal Thursday and Friday, with highs around 65 to 70 and lows around 40 to 45. But any persistent areas of rain or clouds could cause locally cooler highs or warmer lows on either day. The mid/upper trough is forecast to lift northeastward in time for the weekend. Ensemble guidance then favors a more progressive, high-amplitude wave pattern through early next week with large spread on the timing of troughs and ridges. Even so, there is a distinct warming trend to above normal temperatures, with highs favored to reach the 80s Sunday through Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain very low (less than 20 percent) at this time from Saturday onward on account of the aforementioned uncertainty, but this may not be truly reflective of the more active pattern that is being projected. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 648 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Mix of ceilings ranging from IFR to VFR across western and central North Dakota to begin the 12Z TAF period. The general expectation is that ceilings will lift and/or clear from west to east throughout the day. A few light rain showers or sprinkles are possible this morning and afternoon, mainly across central and eastern North Dakota, with no impacts to aviation expected. Winds will remain northwesterly around 10-15 kts through this afternoon, strongest at KJMS. Then light and variable winds this evening will be followed by increasing south-southeast winds overnight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-017>020-022-031>033-040-041-043-044- 055>059. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ013-023-025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051-060>062. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Hollan  874 FXUS64 KLCH 191148 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 648 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled pattern will be in place from late Tuesday into the weekend as the southern jet stream brings a series of upper level disturbances to work with a very moist air mass. - The showers and thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce high rain rates and there is a risk of heavy rainfall and a risk for flooding into early next week. - Temperatures will remain on the warm and humid side. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 With a low pressure system along a frontal boundary over the Southern Plains, gradient is expected to stay up enough for southeast winds to bring in low level Gulf moisture. This will allow for low clouds to form under the cap and make for a muggy night. During Tuesday, a cap around 70H is expected to hang around that will help suppress convection for the most part with just some hit or miss type storms during the afternoon. Hot and muggy conditions will continue on Tuesday. The first question in the forecast is for Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Frontal boundary over the Southern Plains will continue to sag southeast and initiate showers and thunderstorms over north central and northeast Texas on Tuesday afternoon. Just how strong this activity gets and the strength of any convective outflow boundary will tell if the forecast area receives any shower activity during the evening into the overnight hours. Some of the CAMs indicate a MCS forming that will be able to make it into the northwest portion of the forecast area before weakening. Therefore, a marginal risk of both severe weather (mainly winds) and excessive rainfall will be outlined to account for this. A shift to a more active pattern will come by Wednesday that looks to last through this week and even into next week bringing high chances for rain and above climo norm precipitation amounts. Generally an upper level trough will be found across the Western US into the Rockies with an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf and northwest Caribbean. In between the sub-tropical jet will stream over the forecast area bringing mid and upper level moisture from the Tropical Pacific to go along with the low level Gulf moisture. This will allow the forecast area to see a highly anomalous moist air mass with daily PWAT values over the 90th percentile of 1.79 inches and near the Max Moving Average of 2+ inches. Meanwhile, mean layer relative humidity between 100H-50H will be over 80 percent. Warm cloud precipitation processes will also be noted as the warm cloud layer is projected to be from 11k to 15k feet, noting an almost tropical like air mass. So, we do know that there will be several days of high rain chances with possible locally heavy rainfall and a flood risk. WPC has outlined a majority of the forecast area in a Marginal (1 out of 4) or at least a 5 percent chance of excessive rainfall leading to flooding for each day through Friday, and extended WPC hazards keep a risk of heavy rainfall with flooding possible all the way through May 27. What is of a lower confidence is the timing each day of when the precipitation will be the most widespread and at its heaviest. It will not rain all the time, but the timing of each upper level disturbance and if it comes during max daytime heating, will be the story of when the rain chances will be the highest. So each day will be more fine tuned the closer in time we get to each day. Otherwise, temperatures will remain rather warm with humid conditions through the period. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026Gulf moisture filtering inland today will lead to primarily MVFR ceilings through the morning hours. A decaying mass of clustered storms may offer VCSH toward BPT over next few hours. Through late morning SE wind gusts expected to pick up 18 - 25kts with the strongest gusts expected over Southeast TX. Atmosphere forecast to destabilize late this afternoon, leading to isolated TS cells converging to widespread TSRA clusters this evening which are expected shift southward and offshore through midnight/20th. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Breezy onshore winds will decrease some by morning with light to moderate southeast flow and light to modest seas then expected to persist through the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase by Wednesday and remain high through the week into the weekend as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances produce several waves of precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Expect modest southerly winds to continue through the next several days bringing in rich amounts of Gulf moisture. Afternoon Minimum RH values will be above 60 percent through the week. High chances for daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week into early next week as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances provide waves of precipitation each day. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07 AVIATION...30  864 FXUS65 KBOU 191147 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 547 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near freezing temperatures and frost/freeze highlights for most of the plains through 8am. - Unsettled Tuesday through Friday with scattered to numerous showers and a few storms, most numerous in/near the Front Range. - Warming and drying trend for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 146 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered drizzle and light showers will continue throughout the overnight period, clearing by the late morning. We do still have some snow showers in the northern Front Range as well, that will likely last into the early morning. Temperatures as of 1:30AM are near freezing for the Palmer Divide and in the mid to upper 30s for much of the plains. Thick low level clouds will make it hard for temperatures to cool significantly, but the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory still look to be on track. The forecast for this work week looks unsettled and cooler than normal. An upper level trough is forecast to sit just off to our west through Thursday. Upper level disturbances will move through the flow aloft, providing some ascent. Additionally we'll be sitting under the right entrance region of the jet today and Wednesday, providing another source of lift for the area. With the upper level support and surface moisture, we'll have rain chances for much of the area with snow chances for the higher mountains elevations. We'll see higher moisture for Wednesday, which will allow for slightly better coverage of showers, higher precip amounts, and potentially some instability for thunderstorms. Surface return flow on Thursday will bring increased moisture, with dewpoints increasing into the 40s and 50s for the afternoon. Higher moisture and increased instability will combine with strong low level lapse rates and decent shear to provide a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms across the plains Thursday afternoon and evening. A cold front is forecast to move into northern Colorado sometime late Thursday into early Friday. If that front ends up moving through more Thursday evening rather than Friday morning, it could act as a trigger for storms, potentially increasing storm coverage. The upper trough, which is a major player in our rain chances for the week, is finally forecast to move over the area and to the east overnight Thursday through Friday morning. However, models are showing a secondary weaker trough following the original, which could bring us another day of scattered showers for Friday. Temperatures will remain below normal for Friday thanks to the front and cloudy conditions. Storms will be less likely for Friday compared to Thursday due to the more stable airmass following the overnight front. Upper level ridging begins to build over the area Saturday into early next week, allowing temperatures to rise back above normal by late this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday/... Issued at 522 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Light drizzle will continue near the TAF sites for a couple more hours, before it clears out. Ceilings will remain IFR to MVFR through the morning, with occasional LIFR CIGs at KAPA. Ceilings will rise to around 3000ft to 5000ft this afternoon, before CIGs start to drop again as rain moves into the area. Scattered showers will return in the late afternoon through late evening. The highest coverage of rain looks to be between 06Z and 10Z Wednesday, but rain could impact the terminals off and on starting around 21Z and continuing through Wednesday morning. Winds will generally remain below 12kts today. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ038-042>051.Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ041. && $$ DISCUSSION...AP AVIATION...AP  024 FXUS63 KLSX 191155 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 655 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this morning with additional rainfall in some locations potentially leading to flash flooding. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early tonight ahead of a cold front. The main hazards are large hail and damaging wind gusts. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Latest analysis of radar imagery reveals a complex of thunderstorms working its way eastward across the area. Currently (as of 0730z), the leading edge of this activity is pushing into west-central IL, east-central MO, and points southwestward toward Springfield MO. Over the last few hours, this complex has gradually been weakening with eastward extent, with scattered clusters of convection along the leading edge, followed by widespread stratiform rain. Nearly all of this convection is now outflow dominant with a gust front out ahead of the leading edge producing scattered gusts up to 40mph, which has generally been tied closely to the stronger convective clusters. Steepened mid-level lapse rates (8-8.5 degrees C) and a strong 50kt LLJ are both working to keep convection semi-organized along portions of the leading edge. As a result, this complex of thunderstorms will continue to be capable of 30-40mph winds, with gusts near 50mph possible ahead of stronger convective development that percolate throughout the morning. The favorable environment highlighted above for these potential stronger convective segments is generally along and south of the I-70 corridor. As these showers and thunderstorms continue to filter into the area this morning, the threat for flooding will also continue. A majority if the area received 1-2" of rain yesterday with some locations getting 3-5", generally along I-70 and about 50 miles to the south. Locations that experienced these higher end amounts yesterday will be more susceptible to flooding today. In fact, an additional 1-2" within a 3hr period today may be enough to lead to flash flooding for some locations. High resolution guidance varies significantly on the evolution of showers and thunderstorms today, with the general consensus that showers and pockets of thunderstorms gradually wane into the late morning or early afternoon. Given all of the variables mentioned above, the risk of heavy rainfall has prompted us to continue the Flash Flood Watch, which is now in effect until this afternoon. Residents should continue to monitor the latest forecast and be prepared to seek higher ground if a Flash Flood Warning is issued for your area. Latest surface analysis reveals a surface low lifting northeast into WI, with a cold front stretching southwestward into northwest MO. This front is modeled by guidance to gradually slide southeast throughout the morning, approaching northeast MO by late this morning. Ample low-level CAA and thick stratus behind the front will mitigate the severe weather threat in the post-frontal airmass. Uncertainty remains with how quickly the atmosphere will be able to recover this afternoon/evening. Lingering showers and ample clouds will lower the severe risk or push the risk further south, while less showers/clouds would increase the risk and lead to a more widespread severe storm threat this afternoon/evening. Regardless, instability and mid-level flow are still forecast to be sufficient enough to support organized storms with potential for large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Any lingering outflow boundaries from convection this morning may serve as areas of focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Peine && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Morning through Monday) Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Low-level cold air advection along with potential lingering cloud cover, within the post-frontal airmass, will lead to much cooler conditions for Wednesday, with highs forecast to be around 10-15 degrees below average. Quasi-zonal flow aloft encompasses the region through the end of the week, which should allow for a period of dry conditions until Friday. By the end of the week, long-range guidance shows a southern stream shortwave lifting northeast and merging into the downstream end of a northern stream longwave trough near the Great Plains. Low-level flow ahead of these features appears to remain easterly, which would limit moisture return along with rain chances. Regardless, the evolution of these features leads to the return of rain chances Thursday night into Friday, with the LREF 6hr probabilities for accumulated precipitation reaching a widespread 80% on Friday for the area. Chances for precipitation look to remain limited this weekend as probabilities stay below 20% for a majority of the area. A gradual warmup is also forecast as LREF temperature IQRs increase to temperatures right around climatological normals by next week. Peine && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A broad region of showers with occasional lightning mostly across MO continues to slide southeastward with the heaviest precipitation across central/south-central MO. For KCOU/KJEF, showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms are possible through 16z, while KUIN and the St. Louis metro terminals should experience on and off showers through 15-16z. Most of the showers will not impact visibilities, with the exception of heavier showers/thunderstorms that may lead to brief MVFR visibilities. There is a low chance (30%) for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening near and south of the St. Louis metro, which has led to the inclusion of a PROB30 group. Highly variable ceilings accompany the area of showers with scattered pockets of very low ceilings, around 500ft, underneath the more broad and consistent 6-10kft cloud deck. A majority of these scattered ceilings near 500ft have been across central/northeast MO with more widespread ceilings of this nature to the north and west near a cold front that is across western MO/southern IA. As this cold front approaches today, ceilings are forecast to lower at all terminals with widespread low MVFR/IFR ceilings expected across the area. Ceilings at below airport minimums are possible, with the best chance for this at KCOU/KJEF, followed by KUIN, with a low chance for impacts to this magnitude at the St. Louis metro terminals. Guidance has continued to indicate that conditions are slow to improve, with possible impacts from low ceilings lasting into the day on Wednesday. Southerly surface winds around 10kts veer to the north behind a cold front that passes from north to south today with northerly winds prevailing into tomorrow. Peine && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Bond IL-Calhoun IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX  117 FXUS61 KCLE 191156 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 756 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slowed down the timing of thunderstorms for this afternoon with the main window for stronger storms between 5 PM in the west and 10 PM in the east. Lowered high temperatures across the north by a couple degrees behind the front on Wednesday. Chances of a widespread rain continue to increase for Friday and Friday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid conditions continue today with showers and thunderstorms expected late this afternoon into tonight. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather (Level 2 of 5) with thunderstorms today with scattered pockets of damaging winds the main hazard. 2) Much cooler air will arrive behind a cold front for Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be 20-30 degrees cooler than Tuesday. 3) Widespread rain is expected Friday afternoon and night with unsettled conditions continuing into the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure is located over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan early this morning and is forecast to continue northeast today. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across Wisconsin and western Illinois but are expected weaken through early morning as they continue to move eastward. Meanwhile the local area is located in the warm sector with high temperatures forecast to reach the upper 80s again this afternoon and dewpoints gradually creeping upward into the mid 60s by this afternoon. This will result in slightly more humid conditions than Monday but with fairly similar heat index values near 90 degrees. Instability ahead of the eastward moving trough is expected to weaken through early this morning then start to build across eastern Indiana and Ohio for the afternoon. ML CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are expected in NW Ohio with closer to 1200 J/kg in the east. A shortwave moves through the Upper Great Lakes late this afternoon and a pre-frontal surface trough advances into NW Ohio and is expected to serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms. While a stray shower is possible earlier in the day, the main area of activity is expected to develop towards 5 PM near Toledo and spread eastward through the evening. High level cloud may outpace the better forcing but as we get towards evening that may not be as significant. Overall expecting a corridor of 20-30 knots of 0-6km shear which could support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazard but can not rule out a few reports of hail or an isolated tornado, mainly if surface winds back sufficiently ahead of the trough. Locally heavy rain is also expected with thunderstorms tonight with pockets of 0.50" to 1.25" as storm motion may be parallel to the flow aloft. KEY MESSAGE 2... The above mentioned cold front will extend from roughly Youngstown to Marion by Wednesday morning, quickly pushing south of the area. High temperatures in the south will occur early in the morning with falling temperatures while locations along the I-75 corridor may be able to achieve some late afternoon warming. With that said, lowered high temperatures from Lorain to Cleveland to Erie where highs may not reach 60 degrees with flow off the lake. Overall highs temperatures on Wednesday will range from 20-28 degrees cooler than what was experienced on Tuesday. Showers will be limited to the far south by afternoon with diminishing trends. Any clearing is likely to be late in the day. The cool airmass will remain for Thursday with a brisk wind off Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 3... Long range models are coming into better agreement late this week. An upper level trough will move east of the Rocky Mountains with shortwave energy lifting north through the Ohio Valley. Moisture streaming north results in overrunning across Ohio which expands into northern Ohio during the afternoon and evening on Friday. This is expected to be a healthy push of rain as the warm front lifts north into Saturday. Temperatures on Friday will still be cooler in the 60s, before hopefully trending warmer into the 70s on Saturday. The QPF forecast from Friday through Saturday ranges from three quarters of an inch to an inch and a half. The rain may become more intermittent by Saturday afternoon but scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible into Sunday. Although timing varies between models, eventually the trough will lift northeast through the Great Lakes Region with drier air arriving from the west and reducing potential for showers and storms in the late Sunday-Monday time frame. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Scattered showers are ongoing this morning across parts of the area. There may be some brief restrictions and isolated lightning with this activity. Still expecting several hours of dry and VFR conditions later this morning and this afternoon before another round of convection this evening ahead of a cold front. Am expecting thunderstorms to impact most terminals this evening, with a brief period of vsby restrictions and potential for pockets of strong wind gusts over 40kt with the stronger storms. Still a bit of uncertainty with this later round of storms if shower activity earlier in the day is more significant or prolonged than expected, but still leaning towards the evening round of storms being the main show with this set of TAFs. Showers linger through most of tonight as the cold front crosses from northwest to southeast but with diminishing thunderstorm potential. Low MVFR to even some IFR ceilings likely arrive early Wednesday behind the cold front. Winds increase to 10-20kt with gusts 25-30kt later this morning and this afternoon. Winds shift north-northwest behind the cold front late tonight into early Wednesday. Outlook...Non-VFR continues into Wednesday in lower ceilings and possibly rain showers. Non-VFR possible in showers Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... South-southwest winds continue until a cold front crosses the lake overnight tonight. Winds will generally be in the 10-20kt range, with gusts in the nearshore waters of 25-30kt likely this afternoon. Will go with a Small Craft Advisory from Erie County OH points west where winds will be gustiest...not quite as gusty farther east, though still on the breezy side. Waves of 1-3 feet in the nearshore will increase to 2-4 feet in the open waters today. Thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late this afternoon and evening may produce strong wind gusts over 35kt and locally up to 50kt over the lake. Winds whip around to the north- northeast late tonight into Wednesday at 10-17kt behind the cold front, keeping 1-3 foot waves going. Winds increase to 15-20kt and gradually turn more northeasterly into Thursday and easterly into Friday as strong high pressure passes north and northeast of the lake. East-northeast winds often perform well in these types of setups and have continued to inch up in the forecast, and a period of small craft/beach hazards headlines is looking increasingly likely for at least some of the nearshore waters late this week. && .CLIMATE... A record high temperature occurred at Erie, Pennsylvania on Monday. High temperatures today will approach record values at some locations again. The following are the records for May 19. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Sullivan  204 FXUS63 KMPX 191158 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 658 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of frost overnight, especially across west-central Minnesota - Seasonably cool & dry weather persist through mid-week. - Shower & thunderstorm chances return Friday through the Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A band of light showers/drizzle continues to move eastwards across eastern Minnesota &western Wisconsin, with precipitation expected to end around sunrise across the area. A very cool day more typical of March or October is in store as widespread cloud cover & persistent cold advection limits temperatures to the upper 40s & low 50s this afternoon. Isolated diurnally- driven rain showers are also expected to develop by mid- afternoon but any rain from these will be brief & negligible. Clouds are expected to clear out after sunset & winds go calm as high pressure slides over the region, creating ideal conditions for radiational cooling overnight. We likely won't maximize our cooling potential owing to the wet ground & moist boundary layer from the recent rains, but temperatures are expected to fall into the 30s across most of Minnesota 7 low 40s across western Wisconsin. Just how low temperatures could fall still remains in question, but conditions look favorable for at least patchy frost to develop across much of the region, especially in rural & low-lying areas. The coldest temperatures in the mid 30s are expected across west-central Minnesota, & we'll have to monitor forecast trends today to see if any areas are at risk for a freeze overnight. Temperatures rebound nicely Wednesday with mostly clear skies warming temperatures back into the 60s. We'll stay seasonably cool & dry into Friday, but our next chance for precipitation comes Friday into Saturday morning as deterministic & ensemble solutions all develop a shortwave tracking along the US-canada border. AI convective outlooks show very low probabilities for any severe weather with this disturbance, so we're just expecting another round of typical Spring showers & thunderstorms. Solutions vary somewhat on precipitation chances through the rest of the Memorial day weekend, but at least another round of showers & thunderstorms looks likely over the later part of the weekend - most likely Monday. So we'll see some rain chances over the holiday weekend but no a washout by any means. Temperatures likely stay on the cool side of normal with the rain chances Saturday, but could warm into the 80s for Sunday & Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 655 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 All showers that had impacted our eastern sites early this morning have now dissipated. Main concern today is lingering IFR/MVFR stratus that wont improve to VFR until later this afternoon. Breezy NW'ly winds will prevail today with sustained speeds near 15kts and gusts between 20-25kts. Cant rule out the chance of an isolated sprinkle this afternoon. Chose not to include precip at any one location given the scattered nature of modeled reflectivity. KMSP...Low MVFR stratus is expected to stick around this morning until this afternoon between 22-00z timeframe when cigs scatter out to low VFR. Breezy NW'ly winds will prevail today with sustained winds near 15kts and gusts between 20-25kts then becoming light late this evening. There is a slight chance of scattered sprinkles this afternoon but expected not to cause impacts or disruptions to flight operations. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED PM...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...Dunleavy  200 FXUS66 KOTX 191158 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 458 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily northeastern WA and North Idaho Tuesday afternoon. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. - Potential cooling trend into early next week with chances for precipitation and breezy conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will continue Tuesday. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday and continuing through next weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday: A warming and drying trend will commence through the week for the Inland Northwest as strong high pressure off the coast blocks the region from systems approaching from the west. Temperatures will increase from the 60s and 70s to the 70s and 80s by Friday. There will be another round of showers with very isolated lightning in the northern half of eastern WA and north ID this afternoon thanks to lingering boundary layer moisture and a weakly unstable airmass. With SBCAPE values around 100-200 J/kg, any shower activity will be fairly weak. The main hazards will be gusty outflow winds up to 30 mph and very small hail around pea size or less. The best chances for these showers will be between noon to 8 PM today. A shortwave trough currently in the Yukon territory of Canada will drop down into southern Alberta Wednesday afternoon, bringing a backdoor dry cold front to the Inland NW Wednesday afternoon and evening. With this approaching wave, there will be breezy northerly winds gusting up to 30 mph Okanogan Valley. The remainder of the week will be dry with temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s. Sunday through Tuesday: There is good agreement from the global ensemble suite of a trough bringing a cooldown and chances for precipitation by later this weekend and into early next week. There are some question marks on the evolution of this trough but it is a promising sign of more precipitation coming to the INW before our dry season really kicks in. The degree to which we cool down will be dependent on whether we can get the trough overhead to spark convective showers. The coldest 25% of the global ensemble has temperatures at 500 mb around -24 to -31 degrees C by Monday night into Tuesday, similar to the trough that brought cool and showery conditions this past weekend. In the coldest 10% of scenarios, snow levels in the Cascades would drop to around 3500 feet Monday and Tuesday. There is quite a bit of spread with the 90th percentile snow level Monday and Tuesday around 9500 feet. Folks headed out into the high backcountry during this time period will want to keep a close eye on how this trough evolves early next week. This period will need to be monitored for breezy winds as well. /DB && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: Satellite reveals a mid level cloud deck across northeastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle early this morning with ceilings above 7kft early this morning. This will limit fog development this morning, with widespread VFR conditions expected through the period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across far northeast Washington and north Idaho. with breezy outflow gusts around 25 kt. Chances for showers are lower for KGEG- KSFF- KCOE around 5-10% Tuesday afternoon. General winds will become breezy from the southwest around 20Z across much of the Inland Northwest with gusts up to 20 knots and wane after sunset. The speed increase will be delayed slightly for the Cascade valleys with sustained winds 15-20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots after 00Z at KEAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions the next 24 hours. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 67 44 71 44 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 65 44 69 43 71 47 / 10 10 0 10 0 0 Pullman 64 43 66 42 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 69 47 72 47 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 70 39 74 38 76 43 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 65 42 68 41 70 46 / 10 20 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 64 43 67 42 72 46 / 10 10 10 10 0 0 Moses Lake 73 45 78 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 72 50 77 53 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 73 47 77 48 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  756 FXUS61 KBTV 191129 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 729 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 722 AM EDT Tuesday... Updated shower and thunderstorm potential for the morning hours across northern New York and northern Vermont. Chances have increased with a trough moving through. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 727 AM EDT Tuesday... 1. Unusually warm temperatures continue today into Wednesday before a cold front moves through the region bringing much cooler conditions by Thursday and Friday. 2. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening with more widespread showers possible overnight into Wednesday. 3. Breezy to gusty winds are expected today through Wednesday. 4. Seasonable temperatures and increasing chances of precipitation expected for the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 727 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Heat will continue today with 925mb temperatures favored to warm into the 20-24C range. This is down from yesterday, but the warmer start this morning will continue to promote hot conditions. Maximum temperatures are favored back into the mid and upper 80s with 90 within reach for a few select locations. Flow will be swinging southwesterly, so Burlington may get a marginal reprieve as air moves across the colder surface of Lake Champlain; upper 80s are favored here. Conversely, eastern slopes will have an increase in temperatures from this wind direction that will promote increased compressional warming off the terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens. 90-93 degrees is more probable for eastern Essex County, NY and for the Springfield, VT area. Around 90 is possible for portions of Rutland/Addison Counties as well. Temperatures are expected to drop by 10-15 degrees for Wednesday, but remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Warmest spots will be in southern Vermont where there will be potential for more heating ahead of the boundary. Highs in the 70s are forecast with low 80s for southern Vermont locations. Northwest flow will dominate behind the front bringing sharply cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday with highs likely in the mid/upper 50s, then 60s respectively. This will be around 10 degrees below seasonal averages and around a 30 degree departure from yesterday and today's high. KEY MESSAGE 2: A conditional threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains as heat continues while dew points rise. Highs in the mid/upper 80s to 90s coupled with dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s would support a few stronger variety storms. Should any storms fire off, it's probable that outflows would be sufficient to ignite other cells, especially if they interact with lake breeze or move into convent flow around terrain. The biggest issue will be a trigger. Models are showing a subtle 500mb trough moving through late this morning and early afternoon which is what some of the CAMs are highlighting as a trigger. There should be ample cloud breaks to allow for heating which will put the focus on shower/cell initiation over higher terrain. Have increased chances of showers over the Adirondacks coincident with trough timing and as temps on the slopes rise to near 80 degrees which aligns with about noon. The biggest concern will be winds (15%) with a stout low level jet and deep layer of 40+kts extending from 2500-15000ft. There will be about a 5% chance of any storm developing hail this afternoon. The continued absence of strong low level shear means the tornadic threat is very low. Finally, can't rule heavy rain completely out with PWATs in excess of 1.5". If storms fire and a persistent boundary can set up, training cells could occur resulting in localized heavy rainfall. The threat for stronger storms will end around sunset with loss of heating and decrease further behind the prefrontal trough overnight Tuesday. More synoptically induced precipitation is expected as the front begins to moves through tonight along a prefrontal trough and Wednesday as the surface front moves through. KEY MESSAGE 3: Winds will be breezy through Wednesday given periods of low level jet passages and a moderately strong thermal/pressure gradient along and behind Wednesday's front. Gusts 20-35 mph are likely with highest gusts in the northern Champlain Valley and along the Highway 11 corridor in the vicinity of Malone/Ellenburg, NY. Gusts to 40 mph are possible should mixing be more pronounced; model soundings show robust southwest flow aloft with a deep 35-45kt layer 2500-15000+ft. Some model guidance is suggesting a narrow potential at gusts to 40 mph for portions of northern New York tonight, but this will be highly dependent on convection which is less certain. These winds will result in rough lake conditions on Lake Champlain. Lighter winds return Thursday as high pressure moves across the region. KEY MESSAGE 4: There continues to be considerable differences in both ensembles and deterministic models in how shower chances play out for the upcoming holiday weekend. Ensemble members of both the GEFS and ECMWF are roughly split equally on whether waves of precipitation will cross the area Saturday into Sunday. The deterministic ECMWF also favors a wetter solution. Meanwhile, the remaining ensemble members along with the GFS and CMC keep ridging more firmly in place, with the axis running just to our east. This would keep rain shunted to our south and west through the day Saturday and most of Sunday, then trending rainy for Memorial Day. With this much uncertainty, have stayed with the NBM solution for now. Either way, temperatures will be seasonable with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...This morning, some showers are moving into northern New York with a focus on MSS and SLK through 16Z. More nebulous are chances as the area of showers track into the Champlain Valley - have about 30% chance of showers 15-21Z. After 18Z, isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible, some of which may be strong to perhaps severe. Coverage/timing is too uncertain at this point to include any mention in the TAF, but MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorms. Surface winds become light and variable around 5 kt this evening. However, a LLJ moving overhead will allow for periods of LLWS at all terminals overnight. Surface winds increase out of the S/SW after 14z Tue, gradually shifting toward the W/SW with gusts of 18-25 kt expected. LLWS will become pervasive overnight as LLjet spread across northern New York and much of Vermont ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers will begin at MSS after 09Z. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Winds are expected to increase this morning out of the south with sustained speeds 15 to 20kts and gusts around 25kts. These stronger winds will continue through 8 AM and will diminish to 15 knots or less until the early afternoon; winds then increase again as faster winds aloft mix to the surface. Gusts in excess of 20kts are probable before flow turns more southwesterly. South winds return tonight with stronger gusts possible. A front will pass through the region Wednesday resulting in a wind shift out of the north with gusts up to 30kts. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd DISCUSSION...Boyd/Hastings AVIATION...Boyd/Hastings MARINE...Clay  721 FXUS61 KCLE 191156 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 756 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slowed down the timing of thunderstorms for this afternoon with the main window for stronger storms between 5 PM in the west and 10 PM in the east. Lowered high temperatures across the north by a couple degrees behind the front on Wednesday. Chances of a widespread rain continue to increase for Friday and Friday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid conditions continue today with showers and thunderstorms expected late this afternoon into tonight. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather (Level 2 of 5) with thunderstorms today with scattered pockets of damaging winds the main hazard. 2) Much cooler air will arrive behind a cold front for Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be 20-30 degrees cooler than Tuesday. 3) Widespread rain is expected Friday afternoon and night with unsettled conditions continuing into the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure is located over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan early this morning and is forecast to continue northeast today. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across Wisconsin and western Illinois but are expected weaken through early morning as they continue to move eastward. Meanwhile the local area is located in the warm sector with high temperatures forecast to reach the upper 80s again this afternoon and dewpoints gradually creeping upward into the mid 60s by this afternoon. This will result in slightly more humid conditions than Monday but with fairly similar heat index values near 90 degrees. Instability ahead of the eastward moving trough is expected to weaken through early this morning then start to build across eastern Indiana and Ohio for the afternoon. ML CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are expected in NW Ohio with closer to 1200 J/kg in the east. A shortwave moves through the Upper Great Lakes late this afternoon and a pre-frontal surface trough advances into NW Ohio and is expected to serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms. While a stray shower is possible earlier in the day, the main area of activity is expected to develop towards 5 PM near Toledo and spread eastward through the evening. High level cloud may outpace the better forcing but as we get towards evening that may not be as significant. Overall expecting a corridor of 20-30 knots of 0-6km shear which could support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazard but can not rule out a few reports of hail or an isolated tornado, mainly if surface winds back sufficiently ahead of the trough. Locally heavy rain is also expected with thunderstorms tonight with pockets of 0.50" to 1.25" as storm motion may be parallel to the flow aloft. KEY MESSAGE 2... The above mentioned cold front will extend from roughly Youngstown to Marion by Wednesday morning, quickly pushing south of the area. High temperatures in the south will occur early in the morning with falling temperatures while locations along the I-75 corridor may be able to achieve some late afternoon warming. With that said, lowered high temperatures from Lorain to Cleveland to Erie where highs may not reach 60 degrees with flow off the lake. Overall highs temperatures on Wednesday will range from 20-28 degrees cooler than what was experienced on Tuesday. Showers will be limited to the far south by afternoon with diminishing trends. Any clearing is likely to be late in the day. The cool airmass will remain for Thursday with a brisk wind off Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 3... Long range models are coming into better agreement late this week. An upper level trough will move east of the Rocky Mountains with shortwave energy lifting north through the Ohio Valley. Moisture streaming north results in overrunning across Ohio which expands into northern Ohio during the afternoon and evening on Friday. This is expected to be a healthy push of rain as the warm front lifts north into Saturday. Temperatures on Friday will still be cooler in the 60s, before hopefully trending warmer into the 70s on Saturday. The QPF forecast from Friday through Saturday ranges from three quarters of an inch to an inch and a half. The rain may become more intermittent by Saturday afternoon but scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible into Sunday. Although timing varies between models, eventually the trough will lift northeast through the Great Lakes Region with drier air arriving from the west and reducing potential for showers and storms in the late Sunday-Monday time frame. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Scattered showers are ongoing this morning across parts of the area. There may be some brief restrictions and isolated lightning with this activity. Still expecting several hours of dry and VFR conditions later this morning and this afternoon before another round of convection this evening ahead of a cold front. Am expecting thunderstorms to impact most terminals this evening, with a brief period of vsby restrictions and potential for pockets of strong wind gusts over 40kt with the stronger storms. Still a bit of uncertainty with this later round of storms if shower activity earlier in the day is more significant or prolonged than expected, but still leaning towards the evening round of storms being the main show with this set of TAFs. Showers linger through most of tonight as the cold front crosses from northwest to southeast but with diminishing thunderstorm potential. Low MVFR to even some IFR ceilings likely arrive early Wednesday behind the cold front. Winds increase to 10-20kt with gusts 25-30kt later this morning and this afternoon. Winds shift north-northwest behind the cold front late tonight into early Wednesday. Outlook...Non-VFR continues into Wednesday in lower ceilings and possibly rain showers. Non-VFR possible in showers Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... South-southwest winds continue until a cold front crosses the lake overnight tonight. Winds will generally be in the 10-20kt range, with gusts in the nearshore waters of 25-30kt likely this afternoon. Will go with a Small Craft Advisory from Erie County OH points west where winds will be gustiest...not quite as gusty farther east, though still on the breezy side. Waves of 1-3 feet in the nearshore will increase to 2-4 feet in the open waters today. Thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late this afternoon and evening may produce strong wind gusts over 35kt and locally up to 50kt over the lake. Winds whip around to the north- northeast late tonight into Wednesday at 10-17kt behind the cold front, keeping 1-3 foot waves going. Winds increase to 15-20kt and gradually turn more northeasterly into Thursday and easterly into Friday as strong high pressure passes north and northeast of the lake. East-northeast winds often perform well in these types of setups and have continued to inch up in the forecast, and a period of small craft/beach hazards headlines is looking increasingly likely for at least some of the nearshore waters late this week. && .CLIMATE... A record high temperature occurred at Erie, Pennsylvania on Monday. High temperatures today will approach record values at some locations again. The following are the records for May 19. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Sullivan  415 FXUS64 KHGX 191130 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 630 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A wet, muggy weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week across southeast Texas, bringing temperatures slightly below normal (upper 80s) for this time of the year. - Rain chances will continue through the week with 3-6 inch rainfall totals more likely (50-60% chance of 3+ inches) later this week and through the weekend. - The threat of hazardous rip currents remains through at least midweek before marine hazards transition to thunderstorm-driven waves. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through most of the workweek into the weekend, the broader-scale synoptic pattern of troughing across the Intermountain West and ridging across the southeast U.S. will retain its position over the CONUS with some amplifying evolutions/permutations to the local southwesterly flows (and subtropical jet) aloft. As the longwave trough delivers multiple ejections into the Great Plains, it will maintain a moisture-rich southwesterly flow aloft (PWATs near 2 inches, well above the 75% percentile of climatology). This, combined with the advection of embedded vorticity maxima and lift from an attendant frontal boundary, sets the stage for multiple rounds of efficient rainfall producing convection (some storms could produce 3 to 4 inches of rain per hour). Forecast uncertainty remains with the expected evolution of convective systems as they approach and proceed through southeast Texas, however, the congruency that is emerging among short-term model solutions at the moment favors MCS propagation. The first in multiple rounds of MCSs is expected later tonight into the overnight hours, while more concentrated convective rounds are expected on Thursday and later this week. The cumulative concern is for where the soils are primed the most from antecedent rains by Friday and subsequent Flood Watch issuance can't be ruled out at this time. Long-range guidance continues the wet trend into early next week with Day 1-7 QPF values of 5-7 inches becoming likely. Cassel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 SHRA and isolated TSRA over the area will dissipate over the next few hours. MVFR cigs expected to trend VFR by the afternoon, with SE winds becoming more ESE later in the day. We still anticipate a line of SHRA/TSRA to move into the area from the north and west this evening / overnight. However, confidence in the forecast (especially regarding TSRA timing and severity) is quite low. In addition, the wind direction/speed forecast is uncertain tonight into Wednesday morning. The primary concern from TSRA will be strong gusty winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Gusty southeast flow and enhanced Gulf seas will continue into Tuesday. However, the primary weather concern will be the potential for strong thunderstorms overnight tonight and into Tuesday. Thunderstorm winds could easily exceed gale force and result in locally higher seas. It is important to note that thunderstorm related winds can be felt tens of miles away from the storm. Thunderstorms can also result in sudden changes in wind direction. As for the rest of the week, expect generally light to moderate south to southeast winds and 3-4 ft seas. There will be a continued daily risk of showers and thunderstorms, with locally higher winds and seas in the vicinity of any thunderstorm. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Anticipating multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall Tuesday through at least Saturday. These rounds are expected to mostly be in the form of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS's). The exact timing of these storms can be a bit tricky as mesoscale factors play a key role (hence the name), but we anticipate the first round to come late Tuesday. With PW values exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.7-2.1"), rainfall rates will likely exceed 3-4"/hr in the heaviest downpours. While these lines of storms are typically progressive, the rainfall received early in the week is expected to prime the soils for rounds later in the week. Saturated soils leads to a quicker transition to runoff which brings an increased risk of flooding. We continue to anticipate widespread rainfall totals of 5-7" with isolated higher amounts. The highest rainfall totals are still expected to occur north of I-10. This rainfall will generate runoff and cause rises on area rivers and watersheds. Action to minor stage flooding is the most likely outcome, but cannot entirely rule out moderate to isolated major stage flooding depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Landry-Guyton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 89 72 83 72 / 40 70 70 60 Houston (IAH) 89 76 86 75 / 40 60 60 40 Galveston (GLS) 86 79 85 79 / 40 50 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335- 350-355. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cassel AVIATION...Self MARINE...Self  516 FXUS66 KMTR 191142 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 442 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1026 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 - Diurnally driven winds, with onshore winds during the afternoon and early evening. - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek with seasonal temperatures returning late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1026 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 (Tonight through Tuesday) The forecast appears to be on track, with broad upper level troughing holding over much of the western U.S. while high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. The good news, is that our breezy offshore winds have eased substantially leaving us with fairly calm weather in return. Tonight, skies will remain clear and temperatures will generally fall into the 50s for the valleys, perhaps upper 40s for some coastal sites and the southern Salinas Valley. At higher elevations, a thermal belt will exist as temperatures fall into the mid 50s to low 60s and may still have some northerly winds. For those in the valleys, winds will generally be light and variable. Tomorrow, another warm day will be on tap. The question will be, how do the temperatures pan out? Offshore flow won't be as prevalent, which means there could be less of a downsloping / warming of the air affect. But, that upper level high slowly creeps towards us and the marine layer is essentially negligible. Opted to blend a bit of the observations from Monday to the NBM giving us a similar forecast, to what occurred yesterday. The interior Bay Area valleys should make it into the 80s, perhaps near 90 degrees, while coastal communities experience a tighter gradient of highs in the 60s to low 70s. The San Francisco Peninsula should be similar, with the Pacific side having temps range from the mid 60s to low 70s, while the Bay side ranges from the upper 70s to mid 80s. And finally the Central Coast, interior locations rise into the mid 70s to mid 80s, while coastal communities vary from the mid 60s to the low 80s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1026 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 (Tuesday night through next Monday) No major changes to the extended forecast. Upper level troughing looks to keep hold over the western US through at least Wednesday, with that Pacific high slowly peeking into northern CA. This should bring a return of onshore flow to the region and eventually the marine layer. Warm weather looks to linger through at least Wednesday, with Thursday potentially seeing a slight change in temperatures if the marine layer develops. Guidance for Thursday caps it at 500ft at best, with the marine layer getting to 1000ft by Friday. The marine layer appears to better establish itself Friday night into Saturday, likely getting to around 1000ft again. Will need to keep an eye on this as it will affect how temperatures pan && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 436 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR through the forecast period. There is a 15-25% chc of seeing MVFR CIGs by the very end of the TAF period. Not high enough confidence to include in TAF just yet. Breezy onshore flow expected again this afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light NE flow expected this AM then switch onshore this afternoon with gust up to 20 kt. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Hedging toward the 20-25% for some CIGs developing by 12Z Wednesday. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 436 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 The overall sea state continues to improve with decreasing winds and seas. Fresh northerly breezes will persist over the outer waters north of Pigeon Point leading to hazardous conditions through at least Wednesday night. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  394 FXUS66 KOTX 191158 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 458 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily northeastern WA and North Idaho Tuesday afternoon. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. - Potential cooling trend into early next week with chances for precipitation and breezy conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will continue Tuesday. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday and continuing through next weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday: A warming and drying trend will commence through the week for the Inland Northwest as strong high pressure off the coast blocks the region from systems approaching from the west. Temperatures will increase from the 60s and 70s to the 70s and 80s by Friday. There will be another round of showers with very isolated lightning in the northern half of eastern WA and north ID this afternoon thanks to lingering boundary layer moisture and a weakly unstable airmass. With SBCAPE values around 100-200 J/kg, any shower activity will be fairly weak. The main hazards will be gusty outflow winds up to 30 mph and very small hail around pea size or less. The best chances for these showers will be between noon to 8 PM today. A shortwave trough currently in the Yukon territory of Canada will drop down into southern Alberta Wednesday afternoon, bringing a backdoor dry cold front to the Inland NW Wednesday afternoon and evening. With this approaching wave, there will be breezy northerly winds gusting up to 30 mph Okanogan Valley. The remainder of the week will be dry with temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s. Sunday through Tuesday: There is good agreement from the global ensemble suite of a trough bringing a cooldown and chances for precipitation by later this weekend and into early next week. There are some question marks on the evolution of this trough but it is a promising sign of more precipitation coming to the INW before our dry season really kicks in. The degree to which we cool down will be dependent on whether we can get the trough overhead to spark convective showers. The coldest 25% of the global ensemble has temperatures at 500 mb around -24 to -31 degrees C by Monday night into Tuesday, similar to the trough that brought cool and showery conditions this past weekend. In the coldest 10% of scenarios, snow levels in the Cascades would drop to around 3500 feet Monday and Tuesday. There is quite a bit of spread with the 90th percentile snow level Monday and Tuesday around 9500 feet. Folks headed out into the high backcountry during this time period will want to keep a close eye on how this trough evolves early next week. This period will need to be monitored for breezy winds as well. /DB && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: Satellite reveals a mid level cloud deck across northeastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle early this morning with ceilings above 7kft early this morning. This will limit fog development this morning, with widespread VFR conditions expected through the period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across far northeast Washington and north Idaho. with breezy outflow gusts around 25 kt. Chances for showers are lower for KGEG- KSFF- KCOE around 5-10% Tuesday afternoon. General winds will become breezy from the southwest around 20Z across much of the Inland Northwest with gusts up to 20 knots and wane after sunset. The speed increase will be delayed slightly for the Cascade valleys with sustained winds 15-20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots after 00Z at KEAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions the next 24 hours. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 67 44 71 44 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 65 44 69 43 71 47 / 10 10 0 10 0 0 Pullman 64 43 66 42 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 69 47 72 47 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 70 39 74 38 76 43 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 65 42 68 41 70 46 / 10 20 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 64 43 67 42 72 46 / 10 10 10 10 0 0 Moses Lake 73 45 78 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 72 50 77 53 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 73 47 77 48 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  838 FXUS61 KBOX 191137 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 737 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory extended into Wednesday night for the southern outer waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Record heat possible Tuesday with marginal humidity, kicking off a multi-day stretch of anomalously hot temperatures (in the mid to upper 90s away from the South Coast). - Isolated thunderstorms possible today, mainly north and west of I- 95. Better chances for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday with strong damaging winds the main risk. - Cooler and unsettled weather is possible Memorial Day Weekend, but confidence remains low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record heat possible Tuesday with marginal humidity, kicking off a multi-day stretch of anomalously hot temperatures (in the mid to upper 90s away from the South Coast). A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of southern New England on Tuesday and Wednesday, not necessarily because of the expectation for an exceptionally oppressive heat/humidity combo but due to a very early arrival of well above normal heat for mid May in southern New England. This anomalously warm airmass comes courtesy of a building mid level ridge today pushing 850 mb temps into the 18-20C range which wold be 2-3 SD above climatology. Given an expected well mixed boundary layer surface temperatures should be able to reach well into the 90s. Warmest locations will be the CT and Merrimack valleys where downslope flow will help push temps into the mid 90s with low to mid 90s elsewhere. The exception will be along the south coast where that SW wind trajectory off of the ocean keeps temps comfortably in the mid 70s. The ridge begins to break down on Wednesday with falling heights, but even so temps will remain elevated ahead of the cold front; increasing cloud cover ahead of the surface trough will help keep temps a few degrees cooler, but many locations inland still see low to mid 90s away from the water. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s (discounting the outlier NAM) will make it feel humid but not tropical by any means. KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated thunderstorms possible today, mainly north and west of I-95. Better chances for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday with strong damaging winds the main risk. When it comes to thunderstorm threat each day, Wednesday looks to be the more favorable day for strong to severe storm coverage because while both days feature the necessary moisture and instability, the lift mechanism is much more robust on Wednesday (the cold front). Those elevated temps and dewpoints will contribute to instability values on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg of surface based CAPE each day while dewpoints are in the low to mid 60s as previously mentioned. 0- 6km bulk shear values, while fine (25-30 kts), are less favorable for organized severe weather than they are further north where the stronger mid level flow resides. So, the ingredients are there for some strong to severe storms. The lifting mechanism is much less robust on Tuesday, but guidance indicates a weak surface trough and mid level shortwave which will likely be enough to kick off some storms. Despite very strong low level lapse rates, the longevity and strength/height of these storms will be limited by poor mid level lapse rates. Wednesday the cold front will serve as a better lifting mechanism, timed coincident with peak diurnal heating so would expect more coverage of storms and any storms that do form have the chance to produce strong to damaging winds primarily given inverted- v soundings. KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler and unsettled weather is possible Memorial Day Weekend, but confidence remains low. After high pressure delivers dry and seasonable weather to end the week, attention turns to the holiday weekend. Unfortunately it's not a cut-and-dry forecast at this point (5-7 days out) as guidance remains in two distinct camps. One would result in a cool (or downright cold for late May) and wet weekend while another keeps things dry and seasonable. Up to this point deterministic guidance has indicated a rainy Sat/Sun ahead of a low coming out of the OH Valley while the AI guidance like the AIGFS and ECMWF AIFS keep it suppressed to the south by high pressure, at least through Sunday. Obviously this would have a big impact on the weekend, with respect to both rain and temperatures. For what it's worth, the latest GFS guidance has shown that suppression to the south as well, but can't put any confidence in an individual run. Ensemble guidance continues to show a decent chance of rain for the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAF Update: Today and Tonight...High confidence. VFR. Iso'd TSRA possible by the afternoon, though confidence is increasing in impacts to BOS, BED, BDL, and ORH. S-SW wind 8 to 12 kt, gusts to 25 kt developing this morning into the afternoon. VFR overnight, with MVFR ceilings across the Cape and Islands. Gusts drop off for terminals not on the Cape and Islands after 00z tonight. Wednesday...High confidence. VFR. Scattered TSRA along and ahead of a cold front in the afternoon and evening. S-SW wind 8-10kt with gusts 20-25 kts turning NW behind the cold front between 15-00Z. Strong gusts possible in any thunderstorms. KBOS...High confidence in TAF. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday through Friday: VFR. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday: High confidence. Small craft advisories remain in effect 12z Tuesday through Wednesday evening. SW winds will be increasing to around 15-25 kt Tuesday and remain so through Wednesday, higher over the southern waters. Seas will also be building to around 4-6 ft, with some 7 footers possible Tuesday night over the southern waters. Mainly dry weather prevails through Tuesday night, although fog may develop both tonight and Tuesday night. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain showers likely. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Tue May 19... BOS 90/2017 BDL 94/1962 PVD 91/2017 ORH 92/1962 Record Highs for Wed May 20... BOS 91/1996 BDL 99/1996 PVD 95/1996 ORH 91/1903 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ002>004. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ003-004. MA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MAZ003>007-010>019-026. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ006-007-013>019. RI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001>004. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...BW/Hrencecin MARINE...BW CLIMATE...BW/Hrencecin  100 FXUS63 KDMX 191140 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 640 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler today through the end of the week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temperatures tonight reach the mid to upper 30s in northern Iowa with patchy frost possible there. - Rain chances return late Thursday into Friday. -Warming trend this weekend with 80s returning by Sunday through early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The surface low continues to move east across the area with associated rain pushing into eastern Iowa early this morning. While the bulk of the rainfall has come to an end, some wrap around light sprinkles may be possible in northern Iowa through today as the low continues to slide east. Today will be markedly cooler as much cooler air filters in behind the cold front. Temperatures early this morning are in the mid 40s across northwest Iowa with 50s central and southeast Iowa still in the mid 60s. That cooler air northwest will continue to spread across the state today and highs will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will also be brisk out of the northwest at 20-30 mph owed to a modestly enhanced pressure gradient across the area from the departing low and incoming high pressure, along with subsidence and cold air advection. Skies clear through the day as high pressure settles across the state. Will clear skies and light wind overnight temperatures are expected to fall off quickly overnight. Low temperatures in northern Iowa will fall to the mid to upper 30s which may result in patchy frost, which would impact those with sensitive plants. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 By Tuesday evening a large surface high pressure area will be building down the northern High Plains and on Tuesday night will settle across Iowa and Minnesota. This will lead to rapidly diminishing winds around sunset Tuesday and much cooler temperatures Tuesday night as winds go light or calm and skies clear out, especially near the Minnesota border closer to the center of the high and where chances for high cirrus clouds are lowest. The result is forecast low temperatures early Wednesday morning in the mid-to- upper 30s in our northern and western counties, but any frost potential will be dependent on skies remaining clear and winds becoming calm. This possibility will be better assessed tonight and tomorrow. From Wednesday through the end of this week a weak 500 MB low will meander across southwestern Canada, with cyclonic flow extending down across the U.S. Rockies and near Iowa. A series of shortwave impulses moving through the flow will result in a return of rain chances for our forecast area. Initially, on Wednesday, the proximity of the slowly departing surface high pressure area and associated dry air will inhibit any precipitation chances. By Thursday atmospheric moisture and instability will be gradually increasing however, and around Thursday night and Friday the most pronounced 500 MB trough will move overhead and bring higher rain chances (50-70%). In wake of that trough, next weekend, weak subsidence may follow along with weak surface riding, supporting mostly dry weather and much lower rain chances (10-20%). Also of note is a consistent signal for some degree of thermal ridging around Sunday into early next week, especially from the EC and GEM, lending confidence to warmer temperatures at the end of the current 7-day forecast. Climate Prediction Center outlooks also support a likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures heading into next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR to IFR conditions blanket the state this morning with low stratus at all sites and patchy light drizzle mainly central ant east at KDSM/KALO. Stratus will linger through today with a return to VFR around 18-00z. Wind will be breezy out of the northwest with gusts of 20-25 kts thorugh much of the day, diminishing after 00z. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hagenhoff LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Hagenhoff  813 FXUS63 KLSX 191155 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 655 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this morning with additional rainfall in some locations potentially leading to flash flooding. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early tonight ahead of a cold front. The main hazards are large hail and damaging wind gusts. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Latest analysis of radar imagery reveals a complex of thunderstorms working its way eastward across the area. Currently (as of 0730z), the leading edge of this activity is pushing into west-central IL, east-central MO, and points southwestward toward Springfield MO. Over the last few hours, this complex has gradually been weakening with eastward extent, with scattered clusters of convection along the leading edge, followed by widespread stratiform rain. Nearly all of this convection is now outflow dominant with a gust front out ahead of the leading edge producing scattered gusts up to 40mph, which has generally been tied closely to the stronger convective clusters. Steepened mid-level lapse rates (8-8.5 degrees C) and a strong 50kt LLJ are both working to keep convection semi-organized along portions of the leading edge. As a result, this complex of thunderstorms will continue to be capable of 30-40mph winds, with gusts near 50mph possible ahead of stronger convective development that percolate throughout the morning. The favorable environment highlighted above for these potential stronger convective segments is generally along and south of the I-70 corridor. As these showers and thunderstorms continue to filter into the area this morning, the threat for flooding will also continue. A majority if the area received 1-2" of rain yesterday with some locations getting 3-5", generally along I-70 and about 50 miles to the south. Locations that experienced these higher end amounts yesterday will be more susceptible to flooding today. In fact, an additional 1-2" within a 3hr period today may be enough to lead to flash flooding for some locations. High resolution guidance varies significantly on the evolution of showers and thunderstorms today, with the general consensus that showers and pockets of thunderstorms gradually wane into the late morning or early afternoon. Given all of the variables mentioned above, the risk of heavy rainfall has prompted us to continue the Flash Flood Watch, which is now in effect until this afternoon. Residents should continue to monitor the latest forecast and be prepared to seek higher ground if a Flash Flood Warning is issued for your area. Latest surface analysis reveals a surface low lifting northeast into WI, with a cold front stretching southwestward into northwest MO. This front is modeled by guidance to gradually slide southeast throughout the morning, approaching northeast MO by late this morning. Ample low-level CAA and thick stratus behind the front will mitigate the severe weather threat in the post-frontal airmass. Uncertainty remains with how quickly the atmosphere will be able to recover this afternoon/evening. Lingering showers and ample clouds will lower the severe risk or push the risk further south, while less showers/clouds would increase the risk and lead to a more widespread severe storm threat this afternoon/evening. Regardless, instability and mid-level flow are still forecast to be sufficient enough to support organized storms with potential for large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Any lingering outflow boundaries from convection this morning may serve as areas of focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Peine && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Morning through Monday) Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Low-level cold air advection along with potential lingering cloud cover, within the post-frontal airmass, will lead to much cooler conditions for Wednesday, with highs forecast to be around 10-15 degrees below average. Quasi-zonal flow aloft encompasses the region through the end of the week, which should allow for a period of dry conditions until Friday. By the end of the week, long-range guidance shows a southern stream shortwave lifting northeast and merging into the downstream end of a northern stream longwave trough near the Great Plains. Low-level flow ahead of these features appears to remain easterly, which would limit moisture return along with rain chances. Regardless, the evolution of these features leads to the return of rain chances Thursday night into Friday, with the LREF 6hr probabilities for accumulated precipitation reaching a widespread 80% on Friday for the area. Chances for precipitation look to remain limited this weekend as probabilities stay below 20% for a majority of the area. A gradual warmup is also forecast as LREF temperature IQRs increase to temperatures right around climatological normals by next week. Peine && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A broad region of showers with occasional lightning mostly across MO continues to slide southeastward with the heaviest precipitation across central/south-central MO. For KCOU/KJEF, showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms are possible through 16z, while KUIN and the St. Louis metro terminals should experience on and off showers through 15-16z. Most of the showers will not impact visibilities, with the exception of heavier showers/thunderstorms that may lead to brief MVFR visibilities. There is a low chance (30%) for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening near and south of the St. Louis metro, which has led to the inclusion of a PROB30 group. Highly variable ceilings accompany the area of showers with scattered pockets of very low ceilings, around 500ft, underneath the more broad and consistent 6-10kft cloud deck. A majority of these scattered ceilings near 500ft have been across central/northeast MO with more widespread ceilings of this nature to the north and west near a cold front that is across western MO/southern IA. As this cold front approaches today, ceilings are forecast to lower at all terminals with widespread low MVFR/IFR ceilings expected across the area. Ceilings at below airport minimums are possible, with the best chance for this at KCOU/KJEF, followed by KUIN, with a low chance for impacts to this magnitude at the St. Louis metro terminals. Guidance has continued to indicate that conditions are slow to improve, with possible impacts from low ceilings lasting into the day on Wednesday. Southerly surface winds around 10kts veer to the north behind a cold front that passes from north to south today with northerly winds prevailing into tomorrow. Peine && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Bond IL-Calhoun IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX  163 FXUS64 KCRP 191139 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 639 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 630 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storm tonight into Wednesday morning - Medium to high shower and thunderstorm chances tonight through next Monday. Additional total rainfall between 3.0-5.0". - Dangerous swimming conditions with a moderate to high risk of rip currents along the Middle Texas Coast through this week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 As of writing this, we're dealing with a cluster of strong storms in a bowing segment across the Brush Country into the Coastal Plains. Damaging winds is the primary threat, followed by small hail mixing in. This will likely reach the coast at about 09Z (4AM). We'll have to keep a close eye on the RIJ on velocity data. Nevertheless, this rain will prime the soils for additional heavy rain later this week and pose a higher threat for flash flooding but more efficient runoff. A cold front will move into North Texas through the day today, likely developing a line of strong showers and thunderstorms along it that is forecast to propagate down into South Texas late tonight. This line will pose another marginal risk of severe storms, with damaging winds and large hail the primary threat. Following tonight's storms, there will be a lull in rain activity into the day Wednesday but additional rounds of medium to high rain chances will continue through this upcoming weekend and even into early next week due to a series of mid-level disturbances interacting with near climatological max moisture. Not including this morning's rainfall, total rainfall tonight through next Monday, ranges from 3.00" along the coast to around 5.00" along our northern counties from La Salle to Victoria. High end (10%) rainfall totals range from 4.50-6.00". There will be a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding through much of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The overnight system continues to move to the east this morning, leaving behind mostly clear skies for KCOT and clearing skies for KALI/KCRP. This will be short lived as SE'ly flow returns bringing back a VFR cloud deck. Tonight, the area see's another chance for a line of storms moving through from west to east from 06Z-12Z. Some terminals have PROB30/TEMPO groups to account for the degradation of flight categories and for gusty and erratic winds. Outside of precipitation, MVFR CIGs return. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Strong thunderstorms with wind gusts over 35 knots will pass through the waters early this morning. A moderate to occasionally fresh breeze (BF 4-5) is expected to continue through this afternoon, allowing for an extension of the Small Craft Advisory. Winds will relax to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Wednesday and continue through the end of the work week. A line of showers and thunderstorms will pass through all the waters early this morning, then a lull in rain activity during the day. Medium chances (50-60%) for shower and thunderstorms are expected tonight through Friday night before increasing to higher chances (60- 80%) Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 79 90 77 / 30 50 30 20 Victoria 91 75 89 73 / 30 60 40 20 Laredo 100 77 95 73 / 10 50 50 80 Alice 95 77 92 74 / 20 60 40 30 Rockport 90 79 89 78 / 30 50 20 10 Cotulla 99 75 93 72 / 10 60 50 90 Kingsville 92 78 91 76 / 20 50 30 20 Navy Corpus 87 80 87 79 / 20 50 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ245- 343>347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...AE/82  861 FXUS64 KJAN 191141 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 641 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are possible over the western half of the area this evening. - Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances this week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through tonight: Another warm and humid day is on tap for the CWA but by this evening severe storms will be possible over our western zones and spread east into central Mississippi before weakening. As compared to yesterday, the "Marginal Risk" for severe storms has been expended eastward. Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave trough over the northern Plains and extending up into Canada. This shortwave trough will swing east through the period and its accompanying surface low will drag a cold front toward our CWA. As our winds aloft will remain southwesterly, the cold front will lose its upper level support and stall across the northwest portions of our CWA later tonight. Latest surface analysis still had a ridge nosing west across the Gulf coast states. This ridge will help maintain our moist airmass with PWATs around an inch and three quarters along with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Daytime heating of our moist airmass will lead to a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but these storms should remain subsevere. More intense convection is expected to our west along and just ahead of the approaching cold front. These storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail as they move into our extreme western zones by early evening. The severe potential will become less the further into our CWA they progress and current thinking is that the severe potential will end close to midnight over central Mississippi before spreading into east Mississippi. Rainfall with this system is expected to be beneficial with the greatest amounts along and northwest of the Natchez Trace. Temperatures today are forecast in the lower 90s again but record highs are in the mid 90s. /22/ Wednesday through Monday: A frontal boundary will continue to progress towards the southeast before stalling north of the CWA. Ongoing showers and storm chances are expected through the extended period. Highs (ranging in the 80s) will remain near seasonal averages and lows (upper 60s/near 70 degrees) will run +10 degrees above seasonal averages over the extended as well. As the boundary stalls, multiple shortwave disturbances are expected to traverse the region, providing addition moisture and widespread rainfall chances Wednesday, lasting through the weekend. Increasing rain chances will begin Thursday, reaching 95% on Friday and up to 90% Saturday and Sunday. Organized severe weather is not anticipated as instability won't be as favorable, however, an isolated severe storm or two may be possible each day. Estimate rainfall amounts may range from 1.0-3.5 inches over the course of this week and the weekend. Received rainfall will help alleviate the ongoing drought over the ArkLaMiss region. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR/IFR cigs wl continue across the south and cntrl TAF sites through 15Z. After 15Z VFR conditions wl prevail areawide until SHRA/TSRA move into the nw during the evening and spread over the cntrl TAF sites by 06Z and result in lower flight restrictions. MVFR/IFR cigs wl be psbl in the south again by 09Z. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 89 71 86 69 / 30 60 70 50 Meridian 90 70 88 68 / 10 20 30 30 Vicksburg 90 71 85 69 / 30 70 70 70 Hattiesburg 89 70 89 68 / 10 10 40 20 Natchez 90 72 86 70 / 40 60 60 60 Greenville 91 71 84 68 / 40 80 80 70 Greenwood 91 71 85 69 / 30 70 80 60 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/SW/22  120 FXUS65 KBOI 191144 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 544 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory for the western Magic Valley until 8 AM MDT this morning. - Warming trend and continued generally dry the rest of the week. Monday should be the warmest day. - Cold front early Tuesday, then windy and turning cooler with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 248 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Patchy frost this morning in the western Magic Valley but Wednesday morning will be milder with no frost. Gradual warming trend today through Thursday as the main upper trough shifts east of the Continental Divide. However, another weaker upper trough, in BC early this morning, will dig southward into eastern ID Wednesday and limit the warming in our area. This second trough will be close enough to our CWA for a slight chance of showers in eastern Valley County Wednesday evening, and also slightly stronger wind in the Magic Valley Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, no eventful weather through Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 248 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 A ridge of high pressure will build over the Western US by the end of this week, bringing generally warm and dry conditions to the region through Monday. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees above normal. On Saturday, a quick moving shortwave trough will move through the region bringing low chances of showers and thunderstorms (<10% chance) over high terrain in southwest Idaho and the OR-NV border. The ridge will reach peak strength on Sunday, with high temperatures near 90F in the Treasure Valley. By Monday, there is widespread model agreement in a deep upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest. The low will then move into the region on Tuesday, cooling temperatures off by 10-20 degrees and bringing breezy winds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance). && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 537 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR. Virga/isolated showers re-developing Tuesday afternoon over high terrain, mainly the northeast OR/central ID mtns. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after Wed/06Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: transitioning from NW to W, 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: light and variable through the morning. Then, NW 5-10 kt Tue afternoon with occasional gusts around 15 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for IDZ016. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SA SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....SA  527 FXUS61 KBTV 191129 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 729 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 722 AM EDT Tuesday... Updated shower and thunderstorm potential for the morning hours across northern New York and northern Vermont. Chances have increased with a trough moving through. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 727 AM EDT Tuesday... 1. Unusually warm temperatures continue today into Wednesday before a cold front moves through the region bringing much cooler conditions by Thursday and Friday. 2. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening with more widespread showers possible overnight into Wednesday. 3. Breezy to gusty winds are expected today through Wednesday. 4. Seasonable temperatures and increasing chances of precipitation expected for the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 727 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Heat will continue today with 925mb temperatures favored to warm into the 20-24C range. This is down from yesterday, but the warmer start this morning will continue to promote hot conditions. Maximum temperatures are favored back into the mid and upper 80s with 90 within reach for a few select locations. Flow will be swinging southwesterly, so Burlington may get a marginal reprieve as air moves across the colder surface of Lake Champlain; upper 80s are favored here. Conversely, eastern slopes will have an increase in temperatures from this wind direction that will promote increased compressional warming off the terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens. 90-93 degrees is more probable for eastern Essex County, NY and for the Springfield, VT area. Around 90 is possible for portions of Rutland/Addison Counties as well. Temperatures are expected to drop by 10-15 degrees for Wednesday, but remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Warmest spots will be in southern Vermont where there will be potential for more heating ahead of the boundary. Highs in the 70s are forecast with low 80s for southern Vermont locations. Northwest flow will dominate behind the front bringing sharply cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday with highs likely in the mid/upper 50s, then 60s respectively. This will be around 10 degrees below seasonal averages and around a 30 degree departure from yesterday and today's high. KEY MESSAGE 2: A conditional threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains as heat continues while dew points rise. Highs in the mid/upper 80s to 90s coupled with dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s would support a few stronger variety storms. Should any storms fire off, it's probable that outflows would be sufficient to ignite other cells, especially if they interact with lake breeze or move into convent flow around terrain. The biggest issue will be a trigger. Models are showing a subtle 500mb trough moving through late this morning and early afternoon which is what some of the CAMs are highlighting as a trigger. There should be ample cloud breaks to allow for heating which will put the focus on shower/cell initiation over higher terrain. Have increased chances of showers over the Adirondacks coincident with trough timing and as temps on the slopes rise to near 80 degrees which aligns with about noon. The biggest concern will be winds (15%) with a stout low level jet and deep layer of 40+kts extending from 2500-15000ft. There will be about a 5% chance of any storm developing hail this afternoon. The continued absence of strong low level shear means the tornadic threat is very low. Finally, can't rule heavy rain completely out with PWATs in excess of 1.5". If storms fire and a persistent boundary can set up, training cells could occur resulting in localized heavy rainfall. The threat for stronger storms will end around sunset with loss of heating and decrease further behind the prefrontal trough overnight Tuesday. More synoptically induced precipitation is expected as the front begins to moves through tonight along a prefrontal trough and Wednesday as the surface front moves through. KEY MESSAGE 3: Winds will be breezy through Wednesday given periods of low level jet passages and a moderately strong thermal/pressure gradient along and behind Wednesday's front. Gusts 20-35 mph are likely with highest gusts in the northern Champlain Valley and along the Highway 11 corridor in the vicinity of Malone/Ellenburg, NY. Gusts to 40 mph are possible should mixing be more pronounced; model soundings show robust southwest flow aloft with a deep 35-45kt layer 2500-15000+ft. Some model guidance is suggesting a narrow potential at gusts to 40 mph for portions of northern New York tonight, but this will be highly dependent on convection which is less certain. These winds will result in rough lake conditions on Lake Champlain. Lighter winds return Thursday as high pressure moves across the region. KEY MESSAGE 4: There continues to be considerable differences in both ensembles and deterministic models in how shower chances play out for the upcoming holiday weekend. Ensemble members of both the GEFS and ECMWF are roughly split equally on whether waves of precipitation will cross the area Saturday into Sunday. The deterministic ECMWF also favors a wetter solution. Meanwhile, the remaining ensemble members along with the GFS and CMC keep ridging more firmly in place, with the axis running just to our east. This would keep rain shunted to our south and west through the day Saturday and most of Sunday, then trending rainy for Memorial Day. With this much uncertainty, have stayed with the NBM solution for now. Either way, temperatures will be seasonable with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...This morning, some showers are moving into northern New York with a focus on MSS and SLK through 16Z. More nebulous are chances as the area of showers track into the Champlain Valley - have about 30% chance of showers 15-21Z. After 18Z, isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible, some of which may be strong to perhaps severe. Coverage/timing is too uncertain at this point to include any mention in the TAF, but MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorms. Surface winds become light and variable around 5 kt this evening. However, a LLJ moving overhead will allow for periods of LLWS at all terminals overnight. Surface winds increase out of the S/SW after 14z Tue, gradually shifting toward the W/SW with gusts of 18-25 kt expected. LLWS will become pervasive overnight as LLjet spread across northern New York and much of Vermont ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers will begin at MSS after 09Z. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Winds are expected to increase this morning out of the south with sustained speeds 15 to 20kts and gusts around 25kts. These stronger winds will continue through 8 AM and will diminish to 15 knots or less until the early afternoon; winds then increase again as faster winds aloft mix to the surface. Gusts in excess of 20kts are probable before flow turns more southwesterly. South winds return tonight with stronger gusts possible. A front will pass through the region Wednesday resulting in a wind shift out of the north with gusts up to 30kts. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd DISCUSSION...Boyd/Hastings AVIATION...Boyd/Hastings MARINE...Clay  601 FXUS63 KLSX 191155 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 655 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this morning with additional rainfall in some locations potentially leading to flash flooding. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early tonight ahead of a cold front. The main hazards are large hail and damaging wind gusts. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Latest analysis of radar imagery reveals a complex of thunderstorms working its way eastward across the area. Currently (as of 0730z), the leading edge of this activity is pushing into west-central IL, east-central MO, and points southwestward toward Springfield MO. Over the last few hours, this complex has gradually been weakening with eastward extent, with scattered clusters of convection along the leading edge, followed by widespread stratiform rain. Nearly all of this convection is now outflow dominant with a gust front out ahead of the leading edge producing scattered gusts up to 40mph, which has generally been tied closely to the stronger convective clusters. Steepened mid-level lapse rates (8-8.5 degrees C) and a strong 50kt LLJ are both working to keep convection semi-organized along portions of the leading edge. As a result, this complex of thunderstorms will continue to be capable of 30-40mph winds, with gusts near 50mph possible ahead of stronger convective development that percolate throughout the morning. The favorable environment highlighted above for these potential stronger convective segments is generally along and south of the I-70 corridor. As these showers and thunderstorms continue to filter into the area this morning, the threat for flooding will also continue. A majority if the area received 1-2" of rain yesterday with some locations getting 3-5", generally along I-70 and about 50 miles to the south. Locations that experienced these higher end amounts yesterday will be more susceptible to flooding today. In fact, an additional 1-2" within a 3hr period today may be enough to lead to flash flooding for some locations. High resolution guidance varies significantly on the evolution of showers and thunderstorms today, with the general consensus that showers and pockets of thunderstorms gradually wane into the late morning or early afternoon. Given all of the variables mentioned above, the risk of heavy rainfall has prompted us to continue the Flash Flood Watch, which is now in effect until this afternoon. Residents should continue to monitor the latest forecast and be prepared to seek higher ground if a Flash Flood Warning is issued for your area. Latest surface analysis reveals a surface low lifting northeast into WI, with a cold front stretching southwestward into northwest MO. This front is modeled by guidance to gradually slide southeast throughout the morning, approaching northeast MO by late this morning. Ample low-level CAA and thick stratus behind the front will mitigate the severe weather threat in the post-frontal airmass. Uncertainty remains with how quickly the atmosphere will be able to recover this afternoon/evening. Lingering showers and ample clouds will lower the severe risk or push the risk further south, while less showers/clouds would increase the risk and lead to a more widespread severe storm threat this afternoon/evening. Regardless, instability and mid-level flow are still forecast to be sufficient enough to support organized storms with potential for large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Any lingering outflow boundaries from convection this morning may serve as areas of focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Peine && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Morning through Monday) Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Low-level cold air advection along with potential lingering cloud cover, within the post-frontal airmass, will lead to much cooler conditions for Wednesday, with highs forecast to be around 10-15 degrees below average. Quasi-zonal flow aloft encompasses the region through the end of the week, which should allow for a period of dry conditions until Friday. By the end of the week, long-range guidance shows a southern stream shortwave lifting northeast and merging into the downstream end of a northern stream longwave trough near the Great Plains. Low-level flow ahead of these features appears to remain easterly, which would limit moisture return along with rain chances. Regardless, the evolution of these features leads to the return of rain chances Thursday night into Friday, with the LREF 6hr probabilities for accumulated precipitation reaching a widespread 80% on Friday for the area. Chances for precipitation look to remain limited this weekend as probabilities stay below 20% for a majority of the area. A gradual warmup is also forecast as LREF temperature IQRs increase to temperatures right around climatological normals by next week. Peine && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A broad region of showers with occasional lightning mostly across MO continues to slide southeastward with the heaviest precipitation across central/south-central MO. For KCOU/KJEF, showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms are possible through 16z, while KUIN and the St. Louis metro terminals should experience on and off showers through 15-16z. Most of the showers will not impact visibilities, with the exception of heavier showers/thunderstorms that may lead to brief MVFR visibilities. There is a low chance (30%) for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening near and south of the St. Louis metro, which has led to the inclusion of a PROB30 group. Highly variable ceilings accompany the area of showers with scattered pockets of very low ceilings, around 500ft, underneath the more broad and consistent 6-10kft cloud deck. A majority of these scattered ceilings near 500ft have been across central/northeast MO with more widespread ceilings of this nature to the north and west near a cold front that is across western MO/southern IA. As this cold front approaches today, ceilings are forecast to lower at all terminals with widespread low MVFR/IFR ceilings expected across the area. Ceilings at below airport minimums are possible, with the best chance for this at KCOU/KJEF, followed by KUIN, with a low chance for impacts to this magnitude at the St. Louis metro terminals. Guidance has continued to indicate that conditions are slow to improve, with possible impacts from low ceilings lasting into the day on Wednesday. Southerly surface winds around 10kts veer to the north behind a cold front that passes from north to south today with northerly winds prevailing into tomorrow. Peine && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Bond IL-Calhoun IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX  669 FXUS63 KMPX 191158 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 658 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of frost overnight, especially across west-central Minnesota - Seasonably cool & dry weather persist through mid-week. - Shower & thunderstorm chances return Friday through the Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A band of light showers/drizzle continues to move eastwards across eastern Minnesota &western Wisconsin, with precipitation expected to end around sunrise across the area. A very cool day more typical of March or October is in store as widespread cloud cover & persistent cold advection limits temperatures to the upper 40s & low 50s this afternoon. Isolated diurnally- driven rain showers are also expected to develop by mid- afternoon but any rain from these will be brief & negligible. Clouds are expected to clear out after sunset & winds go calm as high pressure slides over the region, creating ideal conditions for radiational cooling overnight. We likely won't maximize our cooling potential owing to the wet ground & moist boundary layer from the recent rains, but temperatures are expected to fall into the 30s across most of Minnesota 7 low 40s across western Wisconsin. Just how low temperatures could fall still remains in question, but conditions look favorable for at least patchy frost to develop across much of the region, especially in rural & low-lying areas. The coldest temperatures in the mid 30s are expected across west-central Minnesota, & we'll have to monitor forecast trends today to see if any areas are at risk for a freeze overnight. Temperatures rebound nicely Wednesday with mostly clear skies warming temperatures back into the 60s. We'll stay seasonably cool & dry into Friday, but our next chance for precipitation comes Friday into Saturday morning as deterministic & ensemble solutions all develop a shortwave tracking along the US-canada border. AI convective outlooks show very low probabilities for any severe weather with this disturbance, so we're just expecting another round of typical Spring showers & thunderstorms. Solutions vary somewhat on precipitation chances through the rest of the Memorial day weekend, but at least another round of showers & thunderstorms looks likely over the later part of the weekend - most likely Monday. So we'll see some rain chances over the holiday weekend but no a washout by any means. Temperatures likely stay on the cool side of normal with the rain chances Saturday, but could warm into the 80s for Sunday & Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 655 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 All showers that had impacted our eastern sites early this morning have now dissipated. Main concern today is lingering IFR/MVFR stratus that wont improve to VFR until later this afternoon. Breezy NW'ly winds will prevail today with sustained speeds near 15kts and gusts between 20-25kts. Cant rule out the chance of an isolated sprinkle this afternoon. Chose not to include precip at any one location given the scattered nature of modeled reflectivity. KMSP...Low MVFR stratus is expected to stick around this morning until this afternoon between 22-00z timeframe when cigs scatter out to low VFR. Breezy NW'ly winds will prevail today with sustained winds near 15kts and gusts between 20-25kts then becoming light late this evening. There is a slight chance of scattered sprinkles this afternoon but expected not to cause impacts or disruptions to flight operations. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED PM...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...Dunleavy  248 FXUS64 KHGX 191130 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 630 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A wet, muggy weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week across southeast Texas, bringing temperatures slightly below normal (upper 80s) for this time of the year. - Rain chances will continue through the week with 3-6 inch rainfall totals more likely (50-60% chance of 3+ inches) later this week and through the weekend. - The threat of hazardous rip currents remains through at least midweek before marine hazards transition to thunderstorm-driven waves. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through most of the workweek into the weekend, the broader-scale synoptic pattern of troughing across the Intermountain West and ridging across the southeast U.S. will retain its position over the CONUS with some amplifying evolutions/permutations to the local southwesterly flows (and subtropical jet) aloft. As the longwave trough delivers multiple ejections into the Great Plains, it will maintain a moisture-rich southwesterly flow aloft (PWATs near 2 inches, well above the 75% percentile of climatology). This, combined with the advection of embedded vorticity maxima and lift from an attendant frontal boundary, sets the stage for multiple rounds of efficient rainfall producing convection (some storms could produce 3 to 4 inches of rain per hour). Forecast uncertainty remains with the expected evolution of convective systems as they approach and proceed through southeast Texas, however, the congruency that is emerging among short-term model solutions at the moment favors MCS propagation. The first in multiple rounds of MCSs is expected later tonight into the overnight hours, while more concentrated convective rounds are expected on Thursday and later this week. The cumulative concern is for where the soils are primed the most from antecedent rains by Friday and subsequent Flood Watch issuance can't be ruled out at this time. Long-range guidance continues the wet trend into early next week with Day 1-7 QPF values of 5-7 inches becoming likely. Cassel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 SHRA and isolated TSRA over the area will dissipate over the next few hours. MVFR cigs expected to trend VFR by the afternoon, with SE winds becoming more ESE later in the day. We still anticipate a line of SHRA/TSRA to move into the area from the north and west this evening / overnight. However, confidence in the forecast (especially regarding TSRA timing and severity) is quite low. In addition, the wind direction/speed forecast is uncertain tonight into Wednesday morning. The primary concern from TSRA will be strong gusty winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Gusty southeast flow and enhanced Gulf seas will continue into Tuesday. However, the primary weather concern will be the potential for strong thunderstorms overnight tonight and into Tuesday. Thunderstorm winds could easily exceed gale force and result in locally higher seas. It is important to note that thunderstorm related winds can be felt tens of miles away from the storm. Thunderstorms can also result in sudden changes in wind direction. As for the rest of the week, expect generally light to moderate south to southeast winds and 3-4 ft seas. There will be a continued daily risk of showers and thunderstorms, with locally higher winds and seas in the vicinity of any thunderstorm. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Anticipating multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall Tuesday through at least Saturday. These rounds are expected to mostly be in the form of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS's). The exact timing of these storms can be a bit tricky as mesoscale factors play a key role (hence the name), but we anticipate the first round to come late Tuesday. With PW values exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.7-2.1"), rainfall rates will likely exceed 3-4"/hr in the heaviest downpours. While these lines of storms are typically progressive, the rainfall received early in the week is expected to prime the soils for rounds later in the week. Saturated soils leads to a quicker transition to runoff which brings an increased risk of flooding. We continue to anticipate widespread rainfall totals of 5-7" with isolated higher amounts. The highest rainfall totals are still expected to occur north of I-10. This rainfall will generate runoff and cause rises on area rivers and watersheds. Action to minor stage flooding is the most likely outcome, but cannot entirely rule out moderate to isolated major stage flooding depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Landry-Guyton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 89 72 83 72 / 40 70 70 60 Houston (IAH) 89 76 86 75 / 40 60 60 40 Galveston (GLS) 86 79 85 79 / 40 50 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335- 350-355. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cassel AVIATION...Self MARINE...Self  223 FXUS64 KLCH 191148 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 648 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled pattern will be in place from late Tuesday into the weekend as the southern jet stream brings a series of upper level disturbances to work with a very moist air mass. - The showers and thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce high rain rates and there is a risk of heavy rainfall and a risk for flooding into early next week. - Temperatures will remain on the warm and humid side. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 With a low pressure system along a frontal boundary over the Southern Plains, gradient is expected to stay up enough for southeast winds to bring in low level Gulf moisture. This will allow for low clouds to form under the cap and make for a muggy night. During Tuesday, a cap around 70H is expected to hang around that will help suppress convection for the most part with just some hit or miss type storms during the afternoon. Hot and muggy conditions will continue on Tuesday. The first question in the forecast is for Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Frontal boundary over the Southern Plains will continue to sag southeast and initiate showers and thunderstorms over north central and northeast Texas on Tuesday afternoon. Just how strong this activity gets and the strength of any convective outflow boundary will tell if the forecast area receives any shower activity during the evening into the overnight hours. Some of the CAMs indicate a MCS forming that will be able to make it into the northwest portion of the forecast area before weakening. Therefore, a marginal risk of both severe weather (mainly winds) and excessive rainfall will be outlined to account for this. A shift to a more active pattern will come by Wednesday that looks to last through this week and even into next week bringing high chances for rain and above climo norm precipitation amounts. Generally an upper level trough will be found across the Western US into the Rockies with an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf and northwest Caribbean. In between the sub-tropical jet will stream over the forecast area bringing mid and upper level moisture from the Tropical Pacific to go along with the low level Gulf moisture. This will allow the forecast area to see a highly anomalous moist air mass with daily PWAT values over the 90th percentile of 1.79 inches and near the Max Moving Average of 2+ inches. Meanwhile, mean layer relative humidity between 100H-50H will be over 80 percent. Warm cloud precipitation processes will also be noted as the warm cloud layer is projected to be from 11k to 15k feet, noting an almost tropical like air mass. So, we do know that there will be several days of high rain chances with possible locally heavy rainfall and a flood risk. WPC has outlined a majority of the forecast area in a Marginal (1 out of 4) or at least a 5 percent chance of excessive rainfall leading to flooding for each day through Friday, and extended WPC hazards keep a risk of heavy rainfall with flooding possible all the way through May 27. What is of a lower confidence is the timing each day of when the precipitation will be the most widespread and at its heaviest. It will not rain all the time, but the timing of each upper level disturbance and if it comes during max daytime heating, will be the story of when the rain chances will be the highest. So each day will be more fine tuned the closer in time we get to each day. Otherwise, temperatures will remain rather warm with humid conditions through the period. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Gulf moisture filtering inland today will lead to primarily MVFR ceilings through the morning hours. A decaying mass of clustered storms may offer VCSH toward BPT over next few hours. Through late morning SE wind gusts expected to pick up 18 - 25kts with the strongest gusts expected over Southeast TX. Atmosphere forecast to destabilize late this afternoon, leading to isolated TS cells converging to widespread TSRA clusters this evening which are expected shift southward and offshore through midnight/20th. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Breezy onshore winds will decrease some by morning with light to moderate southeast flow and light to modest seas then expected to persist through the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase by Wednesday and remain high through the week into the weekend as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances produce several waves of precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Expect modest southerly winds to continue through the next several days bringing in rich amounts of Gulf moisture. Afternoon Minimum RH values will be above 60 percent through the week. High chances for daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week into early next week as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances provide waves of precipitation each day. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07 AVIATION...30  100 FXUS65 KABQ 191134 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 534 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 - The threat of rapid fire spread becomes more isolated to the lower to middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. - Stray erratic and gusty winds from virga showers will impact a few spots across northwestern and north-central NM this afternoon. - Afternoon thunderstorm activity increases over eastern New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 103 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 While dry southwesterly winds remain over western NM, higher moisture alongside northeasterly to easterly winds resides through eastern NM into parts of the Rio Grande Valley bringing a nice change to the recent stretch of critical fire weather conditions. The strong jetmax rounding an H5 low has ejected out over the Great Plains last night with a loitering H5 shortwave trough over UT/NV this morning. While dry southwesterly flow remains aloft over the Desert Southwest, winds will not be nearly as strong as what was observed Monday. Meanwhile, a potent cold front has backed southwestward across eastern NM bringing gusty northeasterly winds of 35 to 45 mph to areas from Clayton to Clovis overnight. This front will bring gusty easterly to southeasterly winds thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into Santa Fe and Albuquerque around sunrise this morning. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph can be expected before winds veer southerly by mid-day and afternoon, staying breezy to windy all afternoon. While most areas will remain dry, there is enough moisture to allow for isolated virga showers to develop over portions of the northwestern highlands along the Continental Divide into the Tusas and Jemez Mts late this afternoon. Stray and erratic gusty winds with little to no accompanying rainfall will be the main hazard from this, impacting outdoor activities in the area. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning continues to see numerical model guidance advertising the aforementioned cold front through eastern NM which had been ushered back stage east toward TX/OK advance back westward thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley. With the loitering H5 shortwave still over UT and northern AZ, southwesterly flow aloft remaining over NM will again try to sharpen a dryline feature somewhere N-S along the central highlands Wednesday afternoon. There remains considerable forecast uncertainty regarding afternoon convective potential thru eastern NM. There is a clear demarcation between the moist continental airmass behind the aforementioned cold front and the moist maritime airmass associated with southerly return flow from the Gulf advecting northward into the Permian Basin and southeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Thunderstorm activity is firing up along this sharp surface boundary over OK into the TX Panhandle this hour. However, this surface boundary will become more diffuse by Wednesday through eastern NM, and numerical model guidance has a wide range of latitudinal solutions of how far north/south the Gulf moisture reaches into eastern NM Wednesday. This yields two scenarios for many areas of east-central and southeastern NM regarding thunderstorm potential. One being the NAM solution which favors the more stable continental airmass further south with relatively lower Td's in the 40s with perhaps just a few stray showers and thunderstorms along a dryline immediately east of the central mountain chain. The second being a more convectively bullish scenario favored by the deterministic GFS where the warmer and more unstable Gulf moisture is further north into eastern NM allowing for scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorm activity first beginning along the dryline over the central highlands of NM before progressing eastward toward TX in the evening. In fact, the SPC has issued a conditionally marginal risk for strong/severe thunderstorm activity thru the southeastern quadrant of the state Wednesday afternoon. Bottom line, Wednesday's thunderstorm potential for eastern NM boils down to how far north the warm more unstable Gulf moisture can push. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 103 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Outflow from any thunderstorm activity Wednesday evening will push low-level moisture back west to and thru the gaps of the central mountain chain again. Dry westerlies advance back east Thursday afternoon as the loitering H5 trough over UT finally gets escorted out of the area and moves along eastward over CO. This shifts any thunderstorm activity eastward along a sharpening dryline feature favored close to the TX border Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday sees continued dry conditions with lighter winds across western and central NM thanks to weaker flow aloft to the northeast of a 575dm H5 low over the northern Baja Peninsula. A cold front backing southward into northeastern NM from CO will advance thru eastern NM and up to the central mountain chain Saturday. With a ridge of high pressure building overhead, this will set the stage for daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorm activity favoring development along the central mountain chain first. Subsequent outflow boundaries look to initiate secondary convection later in the day and evening thru central and eastern NM, with moisture steadily increasing precipitation chances a bit further west each day into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front has advanced thru eastern NM bringing gusty northeasterly winds 15 to 25 mph this hour. It will push thru the gaps of the central mountain chain to KSAF and KABQ by 13Z to 14Z bringing gusty winds of 20-30kts. Patchy IFR/MVFR ceilings have also developed along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts and central highlands. These ceilings will clear this morning as southerly to southwesterly winds pick up thru western and central NM. Northeasterly winds through eastern NM will quickly veer easterly by late morning and southeasterly this afternoon. Most areas will see gusts reaching 20-35kts this afternoon, with a few spots through northwestern NM favoring the Continental Divide and the Jemez Mts near KLAM seeing erratic strong gusts from virga showers. Virga induced erratic gusty winds could reach KSAF but confidence was too low to include mention of this at this time. As winds overall taper off most areas late this evening, the cold front across eastern NM will have been pushed back toward TX, advancing westward again and through the gaps of the central mountain chain late this evening and tonight. This will produce another east canyon wind at KSAF, and potentially again at KABQ. How it moves around the Sandia Mts will determine that however. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 While a cold front has brought a significant uptick in moisture alongside northeasterly winds veering southeasterly later today through eastern NM, drier southwesterly winds will remain along and west of the central mountain chain. The exception will be early this morning when the aforementioned cold front briefly surges thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the middle Rio Grande Valley into Santa Fe and ABQ. Any low-level moisture increase from this will be quickly ushered back out by the increasing dry southwesterly winds. Prevailing winds will be considerably less than what was observed Monday, but still strong enough to combine with humidity falling below 10 percent to produce critical fire weather conditions into the middle Rio Grande Valley and nearby south-central highlands south of the Manzano Mountains for several hours this afternoon. This has warranted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for the middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and early evening. A similar setup is favored Wednesday in this area, and yet another Red Flag Warning focused on the southern half of the middle Rio Grande Valley will have to be evaluated. Eastern NM sees the aforementioned cold front bringing lower temperatures and higher humidity ushered back east toward TX this afternoon. The higher moisture advances west each night, getting ushered back east toward TX each afternoon today through Thursday. Any afternoon thunderstorm activity thru eastern NM will favor areas along a sharpening dryline, although there is considerable uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 76 44 76 42 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 71 36 73 31 / 10 10 10 0 Cuba............................ 73 42 74 39 / 10 10 5 0 Gallup.......................... 74 37 74 35 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 73 43 72 41 / 10 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 78 42 77 39 / 10 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 75 44 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 78 52 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 75 48 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 78 42 79 39 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 83 45 84 43 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 65 36 66 33 / 10 30 20 5 Los Alamos...................... 71 51 71 49 / 10 10 20 10 Pecos........................... 71 43 70 43 / 10 10 30 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 42 69 41 / 10 30 20 10 Red River....................... 59 35 59 34 / 10 40 30 10 Angel Fire...................... 63 30 64 30 / 10 30 40 20 Taos............................ 71 39 73 36 / 10 20 20 10 Mora............................ 67 41 66 42 / 10 30 30 40 Espanola........................ 79 48 79 45 / 10 10 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 73 49 72 47 / 10 10 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 75 47 75 45 / 10 10 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 81 55 81 54 / 10 10 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 82 54 83 52 / 10 10 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 84 52 84 49 / 10 10 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 83 54 84 52 / 10 10 5 0 Belen........................... 86 50 86 47 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 83 53 83 51 / 10 10 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 85 49 85 46 / 5 5 5 0 Corrales........................ 84 54 85 51 / 10 10 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 85 50 86 47 / 0 5 5 0 Placitas........................ 79 54 78 52 / 10 10 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 83 54 84 51 / 10 10 10 0 Socorro......................... 87 56 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 76 50 75 48 / 10 5 20 5 Tijeras......................... 78 50 76 48 / 10 5 20 5 Edgewood........................ 77 46 75 44 / 10 5 20 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 42 77 40 / 5 5 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 70 44 68 45 / 0 10 30 20 Mountainair..................... 78 46 78 44 / 0 0 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 77 48 78 46 / 0 0 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 81 54 82 53 / 0 0 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 73 52 71 50 / 0 5 20 5 Capulin......................... 62 35 59 40 / 5 20 30 40 Raton........................... 67 41 65 42 / 5 20 30 50 Springer........................ 69 41 66 43 / 0 30 30 40 Las Vegas....................... 66 44 64 44 / 10 30 30 50 Clayton......................... 66 42 61 46 / 0 20 30 50 Roy............................. 68 42 62 45 / 0 30 30 50 Conchas......................... 75 47 69 48 / 0 30 40 40 Santa Rosa...................... 76 47 68 47 / 0 30 30 40 Tucumcari....................... 75 48 70 51 / 0 20 40 40 Clovis.......................... 76 50 68 52 / 0 20 40 30 Portales........................ 77 50 70 51 / 0 20 40 30 Fort Sumner..................... 79 50 72 50 / 0 20 50 30 Roswell......................... 85 57 77 56 / 0 20 30 30 Picacho......................... 83 51 77 50 / 0 10 30 10 Elk............................. 83 49 80 48 / 0 5 30 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ106. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24  855 FXUS64 KJAN 191141 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 641 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are possible over the western half of the area this evening. - Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances this week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through tonight: Another warm and humid day is on tap for the CWA but by this evening severe storms will be possible over our western zones and spread east into central Mississippi before weakening. As compared to yesterday, the "Marginal Risk" for severe storms has been expended eastward. Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave trough over the northern Plains and extending up into Canada. This shortwave trough will swing east through the period and its accompanying surface low will drag a cold front toward our CWA. As our winds aloft will remain southwesterly, the cold front will lose its upper level support and stall across the northwest portions of our CWA later tonight. Latest surface analysis still had a ridge nosing west across the Gulf coast states. This ridge will help maintain our moist airmass with PWATs around an inch and three quarters along with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Daytime heating of our moist airmass will lead to a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but these storms should remain subsevere. More intense convection is expected to our west along and just ahead of the approaching cold front. These storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail as they move into our extreme western zones by early evening. The severe potential will become less the further into our CWA they progress and current thinking is that the severe potential will end close to midnight over central Mississippi before spreading into east Mississippi. Rainfall with this system is expected to be beneficial with the greatest amounts along and northwest of the Natchez Trace. Temperatures today are forecast in the lower 90s again but record highs are in the mid 90s. /22/ Wednesday through Monday: A frontal boundary will continue to progress towards the southeast before stalling north of the CWA. Ongoing showers and storm chances are expected through the extended period. Highs (ranging in the 80s) will remain near seasonal averages and lows (upper 60s/near 70 degrees) will run +10 degrees above seasonal averages over the extended as well. As the boundary stalls, multiple shortwave disturbances are expected to traverse the region, providing addition moisture and widespread rainfall chances Wednesday, lasting through the weekend. Increasing rain chances will begin Thursday, reaching 95% on Friday and up to 90% Saturday and Sunday. Organized severe weather is not anticipated as instability won't be as favorable, however, an isolated severe storm or two may be possible each day. Estimate rainfall amounts may range from 1.0-3.5 inches over the course of this week and the weekend. Received rainfall will help alleviate the ongoing drought over the ArkLaMiss region. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR/IFR cigs wl continue across the south and cntrl TAF sites through 15Z. After 15Z VFR conditions wl prevail areawide until SHRA/TSRA move into the nw during the evening and spread over the cntrl TAF sites by 06Z and result in lower flight restrictions. MVFR/IFR cigs wl be psbl in the south again by 09Z. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 89 71 86 69 / 30 60 70 50 Meridian 90 70 88 68 / 10 20 30 30 Vicksburg 90 71 85 69 / 30 70 70 70 Hattiesburg 89 70 89 68 / 10 10 40 20 Natchez 90 72 86 70 / 40 60 60 60 Greenville 91 71 84 68 / 40 80 80 70 Greenwood 91 71 85 69 / 30 70 80 60 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/SW/22