801 FXUS63 KDTX 191002 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 602 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions exist again today which supports a risk of severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. The strongest storms are capable of damaging wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. - A cold front Tuesday night ushers in dry and cooler weather for Wednesday and Thursday. - The next chance of rain arrives late Friday and Friday night. && .AVIATION... Warm and humid conditions continue to feed into the region today as low pressure tracks across the northern Great Lakes. Highlighted potential for intermittent MVFR ceilings and showers at times this morning with a PROB30 group. Otherwise predominant VFR carries into this afternoon with southwest wind becoming gusty to 25 to 30 kt. The next round of convection becomes likely between 19z and 00z ahead of a cold front. Axis of highest instability targets mainly southeastern portions of the forecast area, so did not include TSRA mention at KMBS. Coverage of thunderstorms brings high enough confidence for TEMPO groups for the Metro Detroit sites, and some storms could be severe with strong wings the main threat. The cold front passes through late evening with northwest flow ushering out any lingering showers by midnight. A developing post-frontal inversion brings potential for lower ceilings overnight into early Wednesday morning. D21/DTW Convection... Window for scattered convective development is focused between 19z and 00z today. Storm motion will be west to east around 40 kt. Severe threat ends mid to late evening with cold frontal passage currently timed around 04z. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. * Medium for ceilings at or below 5000 ft today into tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 DISCUSSION... Higher magnitude warmth and humidity for mid May entrenched locally early this morning, as the area holds within deep layer south- southwest flow for one final day. Forecast for today offers a more muddled picture in terms of convective potential, scale and timing relative to that noted yesterday. Intermittent bouts of meaningful moisture advection will deliver another surge of higher quality theta-e early in the day, providing some potential for greater cloud cover to exist along with the possibility for some pockets of convective showers. With that, expectation for gradual boundary layer destabilization with time as intervals of greater insolation capitalize on the elevated dewpoint (mid-upper 60s), yielding upwards of 1500 j/kg of mlcape by late afternoon. There is a definitive model signal for higher instability to exist southeast of a Howell to Sandusky line, but with the best instability (2000+ j/kg of mlcape) remaining across Ohio. Convective focus most likely along some composite pre-frontal trough or remnant convective vort max out ahead of the main cold front within the 19z to 00z window, offering the greatest potential for more meaningful updrafts to emerge mainly within the aforementioned main instability gradient. Background wind field generally modest overall, but with potential again for some local enhancement should the convective response be governed by a stronger convective wave. This maintains an opportunity for organized late day convective development carrying a risk for strong winds and large hail. Afternoon temperatures peaking in the upper 80s/near 90 across portions of metro Detroit and points south and mainly mid 80s elsewhere. Warm sector environment will again become diurnally gusty, with winds reaching 30 to 35 mph from the southwest at times. A few lingering showers around early tonight as the cold front settles through the region. Otherwise, turning notably drier and cooler as the post-cold frontal environment settles into region overnight into Wednesday. Deep layer stability held within prevailing low to mid level ridging affords dry and seasonably cool conditions lasting into Thursday. A standard moderation of the existing airmass then occurs Friday under a high degree of insolation and increasing upper height field, but still lacking in meaningful warm air advection. Highs the remainder of the week mainly in the 60s. Coldest readings noted Thursday morning, reaching into the mid and upper 30s in some locations. Southern stream shortwave forecast to eject from the southern plains into the great lakes this weekend. Increasing magnitude of mid level southwest flow downstream of this wave will drive a notable surge of moisture advection directly into Lower Michigan Friday night. While some higher based light showers are possible late Friday as the column gradually saturates, the main window for widespread, meaningful rainfall will arrive Friday evening and persist overnight. Model guidance is coalescing around a broad swath of mainly stratiform rain with embedded elevated convective elements sweeping from southwest to northeast across Southeast Michigan. Precipitation may carry over into early Saturday, before chances taper off into the afternoon. Otherwise, generally seasonable conditions for the weekend period. MARINE... A warm and humid airmass over the cooler waters of the Great Lakes will support the development and expansion of dense marine fog. Sustainment of fog will be likely through the morning hours as a strong inversion holds overhead, and will likely continue to some degree through the early afternoon until a cold front mixes out the layer. As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through the afternoon. Otherwise, calm to lighter winds hold overnight with some limited chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Southwest flow increases in magnitude during daylight hours tomorrow which will bring wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots through the Saginaw Bay and along the nearshore areas which have resulted in renewed Small Craft Advisories. The development of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible again in the afternoon and evening, favored across southern Lake Huron and locations south. Wind gusts aoa 50 knots will be the primary hazard for severe weather development. Passage of the cold front will end the severe weather threat, veering winds from the southwest to northwest through the evening. High pressure builds behind the front, bringing lighter winds through the midweek period. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422-441>443. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ361>363- 462>464. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....TF DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......MR You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  817 FXUS63 KFGF 191003 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 503 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Overnight temperatures could drop into the low to mid 30s west of the Red River Valley tonight, and a frost advisory is in effect. Temperatures drop again to near freezing across all of eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...Synopsis... Large upper trough continues over the Rockies, with a lead shortwave starting to move through the southwest flow into SD. This shortwave is already bringing some light rain showers starting to move in around the Valley City area. The northern portion of the main upper trough will move into the Plains tonight and then off into Ontario tomorrow, with southern vorticity lobe still down near UT and NV. The northern shortwave moving through should help push high pressure down into the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds return quickly back to the south on Wednesday under southwesterly flow aloft. The split trough remains over the western CONUS Thursday, but starts to move out into the Plains Friday into Saturday. A lot of variation in the ensemble members into how exactly the trough comes out and if there is another shortwave Sunday. Blended solution of some precipitation chances and temperatures rising above seasonal averages by Sunday and Monday continues to seem reasonable. ...Rain chances tonight... CAMs and global models in pretty good agreement on showers currently over the James River Valley spreading northeastward through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. The bulk of the rain will be exiting out of our eastern counties between midnight and 6 AM, although there will be some lingering light showers/drizzle for a while after. All but portions of the Devils Lake Basin have high probability of seeing at least 0.01 of rain, and there is a 50 to 80 percent probability of at least 0.10 inches mainly in southeastern ND into western MN. ...Temperatures into the 30s tonight... Continued cold air advection pushes 850mb and even 925mb temps in some areas down below 0 C tonight. While skies will remain cloudy and there will be at least a little bit of mixing from northwesterly winds, temperatures look quite cold by tomorrow morning. NBM has probabilities 80 percent and higher for temperatures to get below 36 degrees, and even the less bullish HREF has 40 to 50 percent. With the clouds and wind do not think we will get down as low as the base NBM had us, so tweaked lows up a bit. We should stay above 32, but even with not much actual frost occurring the 33 to 36 degree range west of the Red River Valley could cause some issues to sensitive plants. Went ahead and matched neighbors for a frost advisory tonight. It does look to clear out and go light for winds tomorrow night, so better chances for freeze and frost look likely Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Light to moderate rain is moving across eastern ND and northwest MN and will transition east of the region through 10Z. Vis within areas of rain is generally 3-6sm. IFR ceilings are expected to prevail across the region through at least 12Z, with improvement to MVFR by midday Tuesday and VFR by Tuesday evening (west to east). North to northwest winds 12-20kt are expected across much of the region, with periodic gusts around 25kt during the daytime period Tuesday. Winds should become light and variable with surface high pressure arriving Tuesday evening (along with clearing skies). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006-007-014- 015-024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...DJR  214 FXUS66 KLOX 191010 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 310 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...18/1129 PM. There will some warming today and Wednesday with lighter Santa Ana winds. Beginning Thursday there will be a return to cooling May Grey conditions which will last through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...19/1201 AM. There will be another day of Santa Ana winds today, but they will be weaker than ydy's as the sfc gradients are weaker and there is a little less upper support. Still enough upper support to bring 40 mph gusts to the mtns and 30 mph gust to the vly areas around the LA/VTA county line. The marine layer has been greatly reduced by the offshore event and this along with continued offshore flow will result in a noticeable warm up of 2 to 4 degrees across the csts and 3 to 6 degrees across the rest of the area. Look for mid 70s to lower 80s across the csts with mid to upper 80s in the vlys. Humidites will be in the lower teens with local 8 to 12 percent readings. This conditions will bring widespread elevated to locally brief critical fire weather conditions to the lower mtns elevations and vlys areas. A return to onshore flow and a weak eddy will bring some low clouds to the coasts on Wednesday morning. Skies, otherwise, will be sunny. The gradients will be on the light side and there will be no wind issues. The coastal temps will not change much, but the rest of the area will see a couple more degrees of warming. A few 90 degrees readings are possible in the warmest vly locations. Continued onshore trends will bring moderate onshore flow to the area on Thursday. The marine layer clouds will respond in kind and most of the coasts and some of the lower vlys will wake up to low clouds. The onshore flow will also delay clearing to the late morning. There will be a little stronger seabreeze as well as a return to gusty afternoon winds in the Antelope Vly. A multi day cooling trend will kick off with max temps falling 1 to 3 degrees across the csts/vlys (max temps may rise another degree or two across the far interior) .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...19/1226 AM. May Grey will return during the xtnd period. At the upper levels there will be fairly weak flow. At the sfc there will be steadily increasing onshore flow. By the weekend there will be moderate to strong onshore flow. A more robust marine layer will likely develop each night through morning. The clouds will push a little deeper into the vly each day as well. By the weekend some beaches will struggle to clear. The increased onshore flow to the east will produce moderate southwest winds across the Antelope Valley and foothills during the weekend. Fridays will see the biggest drop in temps with most areas falling by 4 to 6 degrees. A few more degrees of cooling are slated for Saturday and then little change is forecast for Sunday and Monday's temps. Highs over the weekend will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s across the csts with upper 70s to mid 80s for the vlys. As is typical with strong onshore flow, the csts/vly temps will be below normal while the interior temps will be a few degrees over normal. && .AVIATION...19/0903Z. At 0840Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 ft deep, with an inversion up to 3400 ft and a maximum temperature of 17 C. Very good confidence in CAVU TAFs. KLAX...Good confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east wind component will be AOB 4 kt. KBUR...Good confidence in TAF. Wind speeds may be off by up to 5 kts and 30 degrees during peak winds. && .MARINE...19/201 AM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels, except for localized pockets of near SCA NW winds during the afternoons and evenings.For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. There is a 40 percent chance of SCA winds on Wednesay afternoon/evening. Otherwise through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Local SCA winds may occur again later today and Wednesay evening off the coast of Point Dume, across the San Pedro Channel, and in the Santa Barbara Channel. Otherwise through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Black/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...30 weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  756 FXUS61 KBGM 191017 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 617 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong high pressure will maintain hot and humid conditions today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and into the evening. 2) A cold front will push through the area tonight into tomorrow, bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Much more seasonable temperatures return for the rest of the week and into the weekend. 3) Memorial Day Weekend could have active weather with seasonable temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Strong Bermuda high pressure off the East Coast, along with the backside of an upper level ridge over the region, will continue to strengthen southwest flow and warm air advection. As a result, hot and humid conditions persist today, with highs climbing into the mid 80s to lowers 90s and dew points remaining in the mid to upper 60s. With the ridge axis positioned east of the area, the region will remain in a more favorable environment for thunderstorm development from late morning into the evening hours. Model soundings show afternoon CAPE values generally under 1000 J/Kg with the NAM having the highest value. Otherwise mid level lapse rates are around 5-6 C/KM with 0-6 KM bulk shear values near 30-40 knots, especially across the northwestern portion of the forecast area. One feature that may help initiate storms is a shortwave moving across Ontario and dipping into the region. CAM guidance continues to indicate pop up showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon, though the severe potential will largely depend on the extent of cloud cover through the morning and whether it lingers into the afternoon hours. Greater clearing by late morning would support increased instability, leading to better thunderstorm coverage and a higher severe threat. A more organized line of showers and thunderstorms is then expected to move through this evening and overnight along the approaching cold front. Temperatures today will once again approach previous set records, though increasing cloud cover ahead of the cold front may keep highs slightly lower than yesterday. Overnight a stronger temperature gradient will develop as the cold front approaches from the northwest. Lows across the northwestern portion of the area area expected to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s, while northeast PA remains miler with lows in the mid to upper 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold front moves northwest to southeast tonight into tomorrow morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along and ahead of the boundary. There remains some uncertainty regarding overall coverage and rainfall amounts, as initial showers will be moving into the very dry air mass that has dominated the region over the past several days. With the front moving through the western portion of the area overnight into tomorrow morning instability is expected to remain fairly limited, especially across the northwestern portion of the forecast area where cooler air arrives first. Cooler highs are expected across the Finger Lakes region, while hot and humid conditions linger longer over the southeastern portion of the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop tomorrow afternoon, the better chance for that setup would mainly be across the Wyoming Valley and Pocono Mountain region where instability will be more favorable. Otherwise instability across much of the area appears rather limited. Colder air will once again filter into the region through the remainder of the week with highs mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. High pressure then builds in the area, bringing dry conditions through Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3... Looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend, model guidance pushes an upper level ridge into our region by Saturday with southwest flow returning. This pattern looks to pull moisture up into the east coast from the Gulf. This should allow chances showers to return. An upper level low feature looks to move in from the west sometime Sunday night into Monday with additional shower chance before a weak ridge builds in behind it. If this feature pushes east quickly then a weak ridge could build into the region by Monday afternoon and evening. With the forecast being further out, there is some uncertainty in model guidance for how the pattern will evolve. Temperatures however look to gradually improve over the weekend with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s by Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected at all terminals for the 12z TAF period. Ceilings begin to fall towards the end of the 12z TAF period due to an approaching frontal boundary, but we're not quite confident enough to bring them down to MVFR yet. Outlook: Tuesday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible as a frontal boundary moves through the area. Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday night through Saturday...Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms likely along with associated restrictions. && .CLIMATE... Near record highs expected Today. Below are the current records and forecasted temperatures for Today. Today/Tuesday... KBGM - 87 degrees, reached in 1962 and 1996 (forecast 87) KSYR - 92 degrees, set in 1971 (forecast 90) KAVP - 92 degrees,set in 1962 (forecast 92) && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ES/JTC AVIATION...KL CLIMATE...MDP  722 FXUS63 KIWX 191016 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 616 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are possible today between 3-11 PM EDT. - Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and heavy rain are the main threats. Low but non-zero risk for hail and an isolated tornado. - Warm and humid again today with highs in the mid to upper 80s. - Cooler with seasonable temperatures and dry midweek. Highs only in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. - Next chance for rain and a few storms arrive Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Satellite and radar imagery currently shows a line of strong to severe thunderstorms entering Illinois. This activity is expected to weaken as it moves east, but a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out around daybreak (15-20% chances) in our forecast area. Ahead of an approaching cold front, strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Our area will be well into the warm sector today; Dewpoints will increase to around 70 degrees in response to a strong southwest LLJ ramping up throughout the day. Moisture combines with daytime heating (highs in the mid to upper 80s) to support SBCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg. Destabilization should occur this afternoon, with chances for strong to severe storms highest between 3-11 PM EDT today. The greatest risk area will be along and south of US 24, where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place. SPC actually pulled the Slight Risk from our northwest half of the forecast area, which I agree with as the US 24 corridor will have ample time to heat up and destabilize this afternoon before the cold front arrives. Shear is still expected to be weak given a fairly unidirectional vertical wind profile, but it will be better than the past few days at 20 to 30 kts. With weaker shear, the favored storm mode will be multicell clusters or line segments. Given DCAPE of around 1000 J/kg this afternoon and evening and steep low level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, damaging winds will be the main threat today. In addition, forecast soundings do show some veering between 0-1km, low level SRH up to 200 m2/s2, and LCLs below 1000m, so an isolated tornado is possible today. This potential is greatest in NW Ohio, which will have the longest time to heat up and destabilize today as the cold front takes its time moving in from west to east. With PWATs around 1.25-1.5", even if storm clusters are not severe, they will likely be efficient with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr. It will be noticeably drier with much more seasonable conditions midweek behind the cold front. High pressure builds in on Wednesday and Thursday across the Great Lakes region. Highs will be in the 60s and it will feel much cooler than the previous stretch of warm and humid days. Next chance for rain and a few storms arrive Friday as a low pressure system lifts into the Ohio River Valley. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 70s. Summer-like temperatures in the 80s return by late in the weekend into early next week with additional daily periodic chances for rain/storms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 614 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 No changes needed to the 12 TAFs. VFR conditions will continue through midday. Winds have diminished to around 10 kts for now, but will quickly ramp up after sunrise and through the morning hours to be sustained between 15 to 20 kts. Breezy southwesterly winds will gust as high as 30 kts today, even outside of any showers or storms. An approaching cold front will allow for scattered showers and storms to develop this afternoon and evening, with the highest confidence for any strong to severe storms being along and south of US 24 towards KFWA. Have maintained a PROB30 at KSBN for 17-20Z and a few hours later at KFWA from 19-22Z. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible within any storms. The main threats today will be heavy rain and damaging wind gusts up to 50kts. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Johnson  753 FXUS65 KBYZ 191017 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 417 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost/freeze conditions this morning. - Patchy freezing fog possible over the plains of eastern Montana this morning (up to a 20 percent chance). - Weather system brings the chance of precipitation to the area Wednesday into Thursday (40 to 90 percent, greatest over south- central Montana and north-central Wyoming). - Moderate chance of seeing at least 0.50 inches of liquid precipitation over south-central Montana and north-central Wyoming Wednesday into Thursday. Snow levels as low as 6 kft. Snow accumulations possible in the high country (moderate to high chance of 4+ inches of snow). - Warmer but still unsettled weather continues into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Temperatures have dropped into the 20s to lower 30s for many areas early this morning as skies have cleared out. While not evident on satellite or webcam images over the area, patchy fog remains possible for eastern valleys into this morning. Have nudged temperatures down a bit for places to account for latest observations and trends. After a cool morning, look for temperatures to rebound into the upper 50s to 60s today. STP && .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday... This morning will be cold with temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s under mostly clear skies. Over the plains of eastern Montana, patchy freezing fog is also possible (up to 20 percent chance), mainly where precipitation recently occurred. Any fog that does develop will lift after sunrise. While mostly dry conditions will prevail as temperatures warm into the 50s and 60s during the day today, a few light showers are possible over south- central Montana during the afternoon and evening (~15 percent chance). With this, dry air near the surface will likely favor virga over precipitation making it to the ground, but occasional sprinkles may occur. The dry air near the surface may also result in brief erratic winds with gusts around 30 mph. Wednesday into Thursday, a weather system will bring the chance of precipitation and a brief cooldown back to the area. Ahead of the cold front associated with this weather system, isolated to scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. With this activity, the main threat initially looks to be some erratic wind gusts (up to 40 mph) with dry air near the surface before the better atmospheric moisture moves in transitioning the threat to more moderate to heavy rain. The cold front will then drop through the area from north to south late Wednesday, turning winds out of the north to northeast. As this occurs, modeled atmospheric soundings suggest the atmosphere will saturate. This would allow more widespread light to moderate precipitation to develop over and near the mountains and foothills late Wednesday into Thursday. As the main trough associated with this weather system slides east Thursday, the chance of precipitation then shifts east and out of the area by late Thursday into early Friday. When all is said and done, the chance of seeing a half an inch (0.50") of liquid precipitation or more is 50 to 75 percent over and near the mountains and foothills in south-central Montana and north-central Wyoming. The chance of seeing a half inch or more of precipitation then decreases away from the foothills with there only being a 10 percent chance by Broadus to Miles City. As mentioned above, the mid-week weather system will bring a brief cooldown back to the area. With this, high temperatures on Thursday are forecast in the 50s and 60s after seeing 60s and 70s Wednesday. This will allow snow levels to start out around 8000 feet before droppingnear 6000 to 6500 feet by Thursday. Subsequently, mainly snow is forecast in the mountains with this event, with rain over the lower elevations. It is not out of the question that some of the immediate foothill locations near 6000 feet in elevation see some snow though (moderate chance). As far as potential snow amounts go in the mountains, the current chance of seeing 6 or more inches is moderate to high, greatest over the northerly slopes of the Absaroka-Beartooth Mountains. Friday into early next week, temperatures look to gradually warm back above normal with mainly northwesterly to westerly flow aloft. With this, additional waves of energy may work through the flow, bringing occasional chances of precipitation. Arends .AVIATION... Patchy fog (20% chance) is possible into the morning hours over portions of the central and eastern valleys with VCFG at KMLS and KSHR. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions to prevail through the period. A weak disturbance moving in from the west will bring isolated showers to western and central areas, including KLVM and KBIL during the afternoon and evening hours. Gusty and erratic winds up to 30 kts are possible with the showers. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 065 042/070 044/059 040/071 045/080 050/083 052/087 1/U 13/T 86/W 10/B 00/U 10/U 01/B LVM 060 036/064 037/056 035/069 040/076 044/080 047/082 2/W 25/T 97/W 01/B 00/U 11/U 01/N HDN 066 036/072 042/059 037/073 041/079 046/084 049/087 1/U 12/T 67/W 11/B 00/U 10/U 00/U MLS 064 040/073 044/063 040/070 043/079 048/083 050/086 0/U 11/B 53/W 11/B 00/U 10/U 00/U 4BQ 062 039/072 042/061 039/068 042/077 048/082 051/087 0/U 00/B 25/W 41/B 00/U 10/U 00/U BHK 059 036/073 039/064 037/068 041/076 047/082 049/087 0/U 00/B 35/W 42/W 10/U 10/U 00/U SHR 059 031/066 036/052 032/066 036/075 041/080 043/085 0/U 01/B 39/W 42/W 01/U 11/U 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  785 FXUS65 KPIH 191018 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 418 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread frost/freeze conditions persist through Wednesday - Temperatures continue to warm toward ABOVE AVERAGE throughout the week - Best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be later Wednesday and Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A few early morning showers or sprinkles remain across the Magic Valley and Albion Mountains. Those should be gone by sunrise. Another round of isolated showers/sprinkles develops this afternoon and evening across most of the central mountains and along the Montana border. It also appears a few showers are possible across higher elevations south of the Snake Plain. The chance of thunderstorms is almost non-existent, but we also cannot completely rule it out across the central mountains. This should shift east diminish before midnight. We will see another break until Wednesday afternoon, when the next low begins to drop closer to eastern Idaho and we see an initial round of showers and storms develop. This storm slowly swings through on Thursday. Precipitation amounts don't appear impressive, although there are some trends that we could see some pockets of heavier precipitation involving any thunderstorms or bands developing. Snow is possible across the higher peaks and ridgelines on Thursday. Temperatures remain a bit BELOW AVERAGE today before warming to NEAR AVERAGE tomorrow and Thursday. Overnight lows will remain cold especially with not much cloud cover and lighter winds. Our FREEZE WARNING and FROST ADVISORY remain in place for this morning, and we will need another set of headlines for Wednesday morning. Cloud cover and precipitation will keep overnight lows more mild Thursday morning. Another thing of note for Thursday, we may need a LAKE WIND ADVISORY as northerly winds kick in and may be enough for choppy conditions on American Falls Reservoir. The rest of the week and weekend look fairly dry, although we do see a couple of very weak lows sweeping across the state which could kick off a few showers or storms here and there. Temperatures jump quite a bit, with 70s and 80s returning Saturday-Monday. It does look a bit more breezy during that stretch as well. We should see another low drop south across the state by Tuesday, with cooler temperatures and an uptick in showers and storms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 416 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 We are expecting VFR weather, even with some afternoon clouds and potential for isolated showers/sprinkles across higher elevations. Even some potential around DIJ and SUN, the chance is too low to mention in the current round of TAFs. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051-055. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ052>054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Keyes AVIATION...Keyes  775 FXUS66 KPQR 191017 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 317 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and benign weather is expected across the region through much of the next week as high pressure builds over the Northeast Pacific, resulting in a warming trend. Weak systems aloft may bring enhanced cloud cover on some days, but rain chances are minimal. Uncertainty in the forecast increases Sunday into Monday as chances for precipitation return. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Monday...Water Vapor satellite imagery this morning shows a broad upper level ridge over the NE Pacific while mid-to-upper level moisture continues to stream scattered high clouds over the area. Marine stratus is also filtering in across portions of far northwest Oregon, especially along the Columbia River this morning. Clouds should scatter out by the afternoon, except along the north Oregon coast where a deepening marine layer will bring a chance for some very light rain or drizzle near Astoria. Otherwise, expect rather comfortable weather to continue today with highs reaching into the upper 60s to lower 70s, depending on which area sees more of the sunshine today. Concerns for hazardous weather remain low through the week and into the weekend. Still expecting a slight warming trend through the week, with the warmest day most likely being on Thursday as the upper ridge axis shifts east over the Pacific NW. Temperatures on Thursday will likely warm into the upper 70s to low 80s along the I- 5 corridor. At this time, there is Minor HeatRisk forecast across the region, meaning those who are most sensitive to heat may be affected. However, there are 5-15% chances Moderate HeatRisk occurs in some urban areas along I-5 if daytime highs end up somewhat hotter. There is generally around a 10-30% chance that max temps exceed 85 degrees Thursday afternoon in the Portland Metro area. Friday through next weekend, uncertainty in the evolution and possible break-down of the upper-level ridge introduces more uncertainty in forecast temperatures and precipitation. Forecast daytime highs currently trend downward through the holiday weekend as chances increase that ridging deamplifies or is replaced by an upper trough, but there is an increasingly wide range of possible outcomes. The 80%-confidence envelopes (the difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles) in temperature widen from 8-13 degrees on Friday and Saturday to 16-19 degrees on Sunday and Monday along the I-5 corridor. There is greater consensus that the ridge will break down late Sunday into Monday, yielding increasing chances of cooler temperatures as well as the highest chances of rainfall, 25-50%, in over a week. 36/DH && .AVIATION...An upper level ridge offshore will maintain northwest flow aloft with high pressure over the region, while onshore flow in the lower levels continues today. As of 09z Tuesday, satellite imagery and surface observations reveal MVFR stratus expanding across far northwest Oregon, including KAST to KSPB, as well as over the east Portland metro. Expect these low clouds to fill in along the Columbia River with MVFR conditions likely at KPDX (30-40% chance) and KTTD (50-60% chance) by 12z this morning. Expect conditions to improve back to predominately VFR by 19-20z except along the north Oregon coast. At KAST, there is a 20-30% chance for IFR conditions between 12-22z, along with increasing chances of light rain or drizzle this afternoon as the marine layer deepens. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions will likely deteriorate to MVFR as low stratus pushing up the river spreads into the Portland metro area, while stratus back building off the Cascade foothills expands into KTTD. Guidance suggests there is around a 40-50% chance MVFR CIGs persist through 19-20z. Light northwest winds expected to increase again to around 7-10 kt this afternoon and evening. /DH && .MARINE...Northerlies are expected to persist through much of the week as the summer-like pattern settles in. Strongest winds are expected during the afternoon and evening periods as a surface thermal trough strengthens over the southern Oregon coast. A Small Craft Advisory is again in effect for the southern coastal waters south of Cape Foulweather later this afternoon into this evening for gusts up to 25 kt. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday, though guidance is suggesting slightly stronger wind gusts may expand northward toward Cape Falcon. Seas around 6 to 9 feet are expected through the week as well. Chances increase on Thursday for more widespread wind gusts for all marine zones. Small Craft Advisories are in place for the Columbia River Bar for early this morning and again Wednesday morning due to strong ebb currents which will produce conditions hazardous to small craft. Strong ebb currents are possible during the morning hours each day this week. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  984 FXUS63 KLMK 191025 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 625 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * A line of strong to severe storms is expected to develop ahead of an approaching cold front today. These storms may bring strong gusty winds and marginally severe hail in areas generally west of I-65. * More active weather arrive later this week as multiple rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible going into Memorial Day weekend and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 323 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Area radars show that earlier convection continues to diminish across the region. In its wake, partly to mostly cloudy skies were noted across the region. Temperatures were generally in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. A few mid 70s were noted down in far southern Kentucky. For the remainder of the overnight period, generally quiet weather is expected. We could see a few light rain showers transverse southern Kentucky over the next few hours. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. For today, the upper level pattern will start off in a trough in the western CONUS with a ridge centered off the southeast coast. From the southern Plains through the Ohio Valley, a broad southwest flow will be seen. Within this broad southwest flow, a shortwave trough axis and associated 75-85kt h5 jet streak will move into the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes. A surface low will move into southern Ontario with a stretched out cold front extending southwestward through the Mid-MS Valley. Ahead of this front, warm advection within the broad southwest flow combined with partly sunny skies will allow surface temperatures to warm into the upper 80s with a few spots touching 90 again. It will fell humid out there today as dewpoints will remain in the mid-upper 60s. This combination of temps and dewpoints will allow surface based instability to develop with SBCAPE values rising into the 2500- 3000 J/kg range. While instability will be plentiful for strong/severe convection, environmental wind fields are not impressive as bulk shear values will remain in the 20-25kt range with higher values off to our west. Enough instability and shear will be available to generate organized convection along the cold front. Based on model soundings and the instability/shear profile, the forecast soundings support mainly multicellular convection that may be able to grow upscale into small linear segments capable of producing damaging winds. Convection looks to move into our western areas later this afternoon/evening. However, the storms are likely to outrun the instability/shear axis out to the west and weaken as they cross the I-65 corridor and head into the Bluegrass region. The highest risk of severe will be generally west of the I-65 corridor where damaging wind gusts look to be the main threat. Some isolated marginally severe hail may occur in some of the stronger cores early in the convective cycle. However, the severe threat will rapidly diminish after sunset with the loss of heating and the better synoptic forcing remain well displace from our region. The surface cold front will push into the region overnight and slowly stall out. While there will be some diminishing of convective coverage overnight, at least scattered shower/storms will linger into the early part of the overnight hours. Lows are expected to drop back into the mid-upper 60s. For Wednesday, surface frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity throughout the day providing a focus for renewed convective development. Overall convective coverage may be slightly higher across our eastern areas. Model soundings again show marginal instability (likely limited by ongoing cloud cover) and weak shear. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail could occur in some of the stronger cores. However, greater instability and better lapse rates will be found to our east across the Mid-Atlantic region. Highs on Wednesday will be cooler with temps remaining in the mid-upper 70s west of I-65 with upper 70s/lower 80s east of I-65. Lingering convection will be possible into the early part of Wednesday night before diminishing. Lows will be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 323 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 For the long term period, it appears that the aforementioned cold front from the short term period will gradually sink to the south for the LMK CWA and yield a slightly drier pattern for Thursday. Blended PoPs look too high here and are probably being help up by the spatial differences in the model fields. Best chances of any shower/storm activity would be across southern and southeastern KY. Highs will be cooler here with readings in the lower-mid 70s. Lows Thursday night will drop back into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Looking into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend, stalled out frontal boundary to the south looks to lift northward on Friday. An approaching mid-level perturbation within an increasing southwesterly flow pattern will lead widespread showers and storms across the region for Friday. Overall risk of severe looks fairly marginal here given poor low-mid level lapse rates and weak shear. Highs on Friday look to warm into the upper 70s and the lower 80s. Overnight lows will be will be in the mid-upper 60s. Moving into the Sat-Mon period, a southwest flow pattern will remain in place across the Ohio Valley with multiple perturbations moving through within the mean flow aloft. This will lead to episodic bouts of showers and storms through the period. Afternoon highs will likely top out in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s. Given the rather moist airmass that is expected to be in place this weekend, bouts of heavy rainfall will be possible. Total rainfall amounts over the next 7 days across the region will vary, but a swath of 3-4 inch rainfall with locally higher amounts look possible. This rainfall will be beneficial given the recent dryness across the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 625 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will be seen at the terminals this morning. Winds have already shifted to the southeast and will veer a little more to the southwest after sunrise. Look for winds to come up this morning and become gusty through the afternoon. Sustained winds of 12-15kt with gusts of 20-24kts will be possible through the afternoon hours. Cold front out to the west of the region will be on approach this afternoon. Convection is forecast to develop out ahead of this feature. Timing among the latest CAM guidance is starting to tighten up a little bit, but overall confidence in timing is still below normal here. For now, plan to introduce TSRA at HNB/SDF after 19/22Z and then over into LEX after 20/00Z. Coverage down south is questionable and for now have left PROB30 in at BWG, but current thinking is that if guidance continues to tighten up, we probably can run TSRA at BWG between 19/22-20/02Z or so. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM....MJ AVIATION.....MJ  933 FXUS65 KRIW 191024 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 424 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloud cover will continue to decrease leading to widespread sub-freezing temperatures this morning. Fresh snow cover in some areas could allow temperatures to drop into the teens. Freeze Warnings remain in effect. - Conditions will be dry and temperatures rebound Tuesday and Wednesday, but daytime highs remain well below normal. The arrival of another weather system Thursday cools temperatures a few degrees and provides another round of precipitation. - Widespread precipitation is expected Thursday, with upslope areas like Cody and Lander having the best chances for snow accumulation during the day. - Early indications point to a much warmer and dry Memorial Day holiday weekend with widespread 75 to 85 degree daytime highs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas of clouds still linger over central and southern portions of the CWA this morning, as expected. Low clouds have developed in the Upper Green River Basin, in the wake of the residual snow that fell through Monday evening. Low clouds/fog is also expected to develop near Pathfinder Reservoir in southern Natrona County as well as far eastern Sweetwater County near Wamsutter and Creston Junction. These clouds are expected to last through mid-morning. Travelers on I-80 and US-189/191 should exercise caution due to the reduced visibility. Otherwise, clouds will continue to scatter out through the rest of the morning with partly cloudy skies by 18Z. There is a 20-30% chance for fog/low clouds to develop in the Wind River Basin and areas near Casper. Cumulus clouds will begin to develop over the western mountains after 18Z, with isolated virga showers possible over northern portions of Yellowstone NP, the Cody Foothills, Hoback Junction and Lander/Fort Washakie. Temperatures will be about 10 to 20 degrees below normal today, with sub-freezing temperatures expected again tonight for most areas except northern portions of the Bighorn Basin. The warming trend continues Wednesday, but temperatures stay below normal for central and southern portions of the CWA. Conditions will be dry for most areas, with showers possible over far northern portions irt the next storm system approaching the Cowboy State from the north. Precipitation chances will be confined to northwestern portions Wednesday night, with snow levels between 7000 and 8000 ft, as the storm drops southward. The associated cold front will drop southward over the CWA through the overnight hours, extending from Buffalo to Kemmerer by sunrise Thursday morning. The front will then slowly push through Natrona and Sweetwater counties through the rest of the day. Most of the precipitation with this storm will occur along and behind of the front, being widespread across the CWA through the day Thursday. Rain could change over to snow along and north of a Meeteetse-to-Lovell line after 15Z, as the cold core from the storm pushes into the Bighorn Basin. The challenge will be if snowfall rates will be heavy enough to overcome the high May sun angle. Otherwise, any snow is likely to stay in grassy areas through the day. There could be a similar change over later in the afternoon at Lander. Both of these locations (mainly Cody and Lander) will have a good upslope component with north- northeast winds. There could be a 3 to 5 hour window for snow accumulation between 23Z and 04Z (5pm to 10pm), as the sun begins to wane in the evening. A leeside low will develop over the Black Hills around this time, generating a line of showers and thunderstorms over western portions of SD and NE. Drier air will quickly push in over western portions of the CWA as the storm movesover the aforementioned areas through the rest of the night into Friday morning. Precipitation will quickly end from west to east after 03Z as a result of the storm becoming better organized over SD/NE. However, precipitation looks to linger over Johnson and Natrona counties through the rest of the night. Rain or a rain/snow mix is likely at this time, with snow levels as low as 6000 ft. Initial snowfall amounts around 6 inches are forecasted over the Absaroka and Wind River Mountains and 6 to 10 inches over the northern half of the Bighorns. Temperatures rebound more quickly on Friday, staying at or slightly below normal as the storm quickly exits over the Plains. A pleasant holiday weekend is shaping up, with highs in the 70s and 80s by Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 420 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 West of the Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Terminals Low MVFR/VFR cloud decks persist in the Green River Basin this morning. There is still a chance of LIFR/IFR fog and low clouds at KBPI, until 15Z. There may be similar IFR/MVFR at KRKS and KPNA during this time, but confidence is low given current observations and model trends. All terminals are VFR after 16Z through the remainder of the period. Enough mid- level moisture and instability is present for cumulus to form over the mountains and drift into the valleys/basins late Tuesday afternoon. A few showers could occur around KJAC, but confidence is low for any impacts. Mountain tops frequently obscured through the afternoon as a result. East of the Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL Terminals There could be a brief period of fog and IFR ceilings at KRIW and KLND after sunrise, as skies have cleared over the Wind River Basin. Other terminals to be VFR through the period. Enough mid-level moisture and instability is present for cumulus to form over the mountains and drift into the valleys/basins late Tuesday afternoon. A few showers could occur around KCOD and perhaps KLND, but confidence is low for any impacts. Mountain tops frequently obscured through the afternoon as a result. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for WYZ003>006-010- 011-016>020. && $$ DISCUSSION...LaVoie AVIATION...LaVoie/CNJ  010 FXUS63 KAPX 191026 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 626 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Scattered showers and storms continue this morning with hot and humid weather through the afternoon. -Cool and quiet weather returns Wednesday through the remainder of the work week with frost/freeze concerns tonight through Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Longwave midlevel troughing is currently positioned over the North American Plains today with a strong jet max over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, low pressure positioned over Northern Wisconsin this morning will progress northeast today and drag a cold front across the CWA. Hot and humid air ahead of the front will continue to linger over the region before the strong thermal gradient rapidly drops temperatures overnight. Scattered showers and storms remain possible ahead of the frontal passage this morning as lingering instability settles across Northern Lower today. Cool and quiet weather builds into the region this evening through the remainder of the work week. cP air influence will return climatologically cool surface temps ahead of an upstream midlevel ridging pattern that builds over the central CONUS this week, causing temperatures to slowly build back to the mid/upper 70s. Dewpoint temps falling near or below freezing with efficient radiational cooling will return overnight frost/freeze concerns. Additionally, another thing to monitor amidst the atmospherically dry and cool high pressure is the continuation of minimal RH values approaching critical thresholds for fire weather. Precipitation chances build this weekend as a secondary trough axis develops over the North American Rockies and lifts northeast. No impactful weather is expected at this time, but energy waves will continue to inject enough instability to keep rainfall in the forecast as we head into late May. Forecast Details: Scattered showers and storms continue this morning with hot and humid weather through this afternoon... Enough lift from the well- advertised frontal boundary will fuel scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms this morning into the early afternoon. Overnight loss of surface based instability combined with showers becoming detached from the cold front itself will keep any severe potential minimal across the CWA. While most locations can expect mostly cloudy skies with hot and humid temperatures this afternoon behind the decaying line, daytime heating processes will build the minimal CAPE and shear values to support one or two single-celled thunderstorms that could produce strong gusty winds and/or hail. Cool and quiet weather returns through the remainder of the week with frost/freeze concerns Tuesday through Thursday night... Post- frontal northwest flow will pull cool and dry cP air into the Great Lakes Region tonight. Cold air advection combined with clear skies and radiational cooling processes will return potential frost development tonight followed by widespread frost/freeze Wednesday and Thursday nights. Surface high pressure will continue through the end of the work week, but surface temperatures are expected to slowly build as upstream embedded ridging shifts its axis over the Midwest. 850mb temps start near freezing and increase to around 10 degrees Celsius by the end of the week, resulting in adiabatic heating processes warming daytime highs from the 50s this Wednesday to the mid/upper 70s for most areas by the end of the week. One other thing to monitor this week besides the frost/freeze concerns is the dry dew points near or below freezing, leading to minimal RH values dropping to near critical thresholds for fire weather. No wind is expected under aforementioned subsidence, but we will continue to monitor conditions this Wednesday and Thursday if any potential lake breeze processes occur. Somewhat active weather returns this weekend as another trough develops surface low pressure lee of the Rockies and makes its way to the Midwest around the Saturday/Sunday timeframe. Latest guidance depicts strongest moisture advection to our south, likely leading to steady stratiform precipitation for the Northwoods. Additional waves of energy will keep slight to scattered PoP’s in the forecast through the remainder of the forecast period, but no widespread precipitation or impactful weather is expected at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 624 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Dense fog overnight has improved in the last few hours, although pockets of VSBYs less than 1SM still remain across parts of eastern upper and far northern lower Michigan. These areas are expected to improve over the next few hours. Meanwhile, showers and a few storms will continue to work across parts of northwest lower and eastern upper this morning -- eventually ending by late morning/early afternoon. Additional showers/storms will be possible this afternoon and early evening. Southwest winds between 10-15 kts with gusts to 25-30 kts are in store today before winds shift to northwest behind the front this evening into tonight. A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs are expected for many areas south of the bridge today with better chances for firm MVFR CIGs at TAF sites this afternoon. LIFR/IFR CIGs may stay in place across the eastern U.P. through this afternoon before improving this evening. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...SJC AVIATION...DJC  085 FXUS61 KRLX 191029 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 629 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast Discussion update. 303 AM update... Little to no changes were made with the Day 1/Day 2 severe weather outlooks in our forecast area, still carrying Marginal Risks for both days amid the passing cold front. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Another unseasonably hot day on tap today before relief arrives for midweek and beyond. Record high temperatures could once again be challenged today. 2) A cold frontal passage late tonight into Wednesday will serve up unsettled weather through the Memorial Day weekend. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms track ahead of the boundary late tonight and once again Wednesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure centered off the Carolina coast will continue to encourage strong onshore flow into the forecast area today and once again serve up unseasonably hot temperatures this afternoon. Several of our climate sites observed record breaking high temperatures as a result of this pattern set up yesterday, and could once again be challenged today as daytime highs soar into the low 90s across the lowlands and 80s along the higher terrain. A cold front, spoken about in greater detail below in Key Message 2, will bring a relief from this early season warm spell, returning temperatures closer to their seasonable norm for the end of the work week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2... An active weather pattern looms with the arrival of a cold front late tonight. Until then, one more mostly dry day is on tap for the area, with the exception of some diurnally driven showers and storms that attempt to sprout within afternoon cumulus fields around the Ohio River Valley. The front is then progged to pivot in from the west starting late tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest hi-res simulated reflectivity depicts a line of showers and storms aligned along the boundary forming during peak heating hours this afternoon through Ohio and Indiana and promoting strong to severe thunderstorms through the course of the afternoon and evening. As this line approaches the western flank of our forecast area after sunset, this sharp line of convection will begin to shear apart and fade due to the loss of daytime heating. SPC continues to paint a Marginal Risk for severe weather through our southeast Ohio Counties before trailing off into a general risk for the rest of the area overnight tonight. Showers and embedded thunderstorms prevail overnight into Wednesday morning as the front makes slow eastward progress. For Wednesday, the front remains sluggish in its journey overhead, and will once again serve up afternoon thunderstorm potential for areas out ahead of the boundary. With abundant cloud coverage now in place, instability will be harder to come by for the bulk of our forecast area, and foresee most of the severe potential then shifting east of the Appalachian mountains. Despite a complete frontal passage progged for Wednesday night into Thursday, the boundary will remain in close proximity to the area as a result of the strong offshore surface high preventing forward progress eastward. In response, the front is likely to stall just to our south and eventually retreat northward by Saturday. This will maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in the Central Appalachians through the Memorial Day holiday weekend. Dry antecedent ground conditions should help keep flooding concerns at bay, but low lying areas and known trouble spots could begin to see localized issues by the end of the weekend depending upon radar trends and where the heaviest bands of rain sets up amid the stagnant frontal boundary. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The mid to upper level cloud deck will remain present over our airspace this morning before transitioning to an afternoon cumulus field. Valley fog hovers below the runway at CRW this morning due to a passing shower late this past evening, but should quickly erode now that the sun has begun to rise. Another mostly quiet, albeit unseasonably hot, weather day is expected today before a cold front approaches overnight into Wednesday morning. Some isolated storms could form in the Ohio River Valley within afternoon cumulus development, but confidence was not high enough to support restrictions or light rain passing over a certain airfield with this issuance. MVFR ceilings leading the invasion of the cold front Wednesday morning will encroach PKB and HTS shortly after the conclusion of the valid TAF period. An uptick in southwesterly flow is expected today, with breezes of 15-25 kts occurring at times from late this morning onward, especially for our northern and central terminals. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: An afternoon thunderstorm passing over a TAF site may promote brief MVFR ceilings/vsbys. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 05/19/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... Patchy IFR is possible in convection Wednesday through the weekend. && .Climate... Several record high temperatures were set or tied on Monday. Observed / Prior Records ---------------------------------- CRW | 93 (Record) / 92 (1962) | HTS | 92 (Tied) / 92 (1906) | BKW | 88 (Record) / 87 (1962) | EKN | 90 (Record) / 89 (1911) | ---------------------------------- Record high temperatures could also be challenged on Tuesday. Forecast / Record High Temperatures --------------------- Tue, 5/19 | --------------------- CRW | 91 / 95 (1931) | HTS | 90 / 92 (1996) | CKB | 89 / 90 (1959) | PKB | 90 / 90 (1964) | BKW | 85 / 89 (1996) | EKN | 87 / 93 (1996) | --------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05 CLIMATE...05/GW  079 FXUS63 KJKL 191028 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 628 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast later today and tonight, with active weather expected to continue through the upcoming holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to bring widespread rainfall that is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 628 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 An update is out with minor revisions to hourly Sky and PoPs through this evening based on observed and model trends. Also updated latest hourly T/Td/Sky grids. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Upper ridging will gradually get nudged southeast through Wednesday as a cold front reaches the area and begins to stall near or over the area Wednesday afternoon. This stalling, or at least slowing down, of the cold front occurs as the upper flow becomes parallel to the cold front orientation. PoPs gradually increase from the west through Wednesday as the front approaches. Most if not all of the forecast area will stay dry today with the ridging trying to hold tough to the east and southeast while the front slowly makes progress, with highest chances at showers or a thunderstorm in the Bluegrass region. Chances for rain increase into the evening and overnight as mid- level heights begin to gradually fall, as shortwaves move up the Ohio River Valley, mostly but not completely skirting Eastern Kentucky. If a storm, or storms, were to reach the forecast area late this afternoon into this evening, there is sufficient shear and possibly instability to support an isolated severe storm in the Bluegrass region. The front reaches the CWA from the northwest late Wednesday afternoon, with a mid-level speed max of 35 to 45 kts developing during the day just north of the area possibly providing enough shear for an isolated strong to severe storm in the afternoon should sufficient instability exists, which looks likely at this time. The SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook expands the Marginal Risk into far eastern parts of the forecast area, but future outlooks may extend that further into the forecast area based on the forecast evolution and placement of this mid-level speed max. Highs will again threaten records in the upper 80s to lower 90s today, but temperatures will begin to trend lower as humidity and rain chances increase from the west and northwest for Wednesday, with current forecasts suggesting lower to mid 80s across the area, warmest in the Upper Big Sandy Basin where rain is likely to hold off the longest into the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 If the long term period could be summarized with just one word, it would be wet. The period will open Wednesday night with broad ridging over the southeastern US and troughing over the Hudson Bay. This will leave Kentucky in a regime of generally weak southwesterly flow aloft. With broad ridging over the southeastern CONUS, the surface cold front that passed through during the day on Wednesday will struggle to continue it's forward momentum through into the Mid- Atlantic coastal states. Instead, it's currently poised to stall over the periphery of the ridge (TN area to the Mid-Atlantic) Wednesday night and Thursday, before lifting into Kentucky again as a warm front on Friday. This pattern will bring multiple rounds of rain to the forecast area. As such, WPC has introduced multiple Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for the forecast area; one for our entire area Wednesday and Wednesday night (though expect most of the rain to fall during the day Wednesday in the short term portion of the forecast), another for the Lake Cumberland area on Thursday, and a third for our entire forecast area again on Friday. QPF does not look overly impressive on any given day; LREF guidance shows the chance of exceeding 0.5 of rain on any given day is low to moderate (maxing out at around 50% on Wednesday). However, this does not account for enhanced rain rates in any thunderstorms that do develop. If storms track over the same area for multiple days in a row, isolated instances of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. This is especially true closer to the KY/TN border, which will feel the greatest impacts of the stalling front. However, it should also be mentioned that the Lake Cumberland Region is in a moderate to severe drought - so any higher rain amounts that fall here will likely be beneficial. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the period. Following the frontal passage, CAA via postfrontal winds will keep maxTs generally below normal, with a defined thermal gradient over our forecast area as the front stalls. Currently, the NBM is outputting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for the north and upper 70s for the southern CWA. The previous forecast package noted that the NBM had 80s in the southern CWA, which appeared to be an outlier compared to other guidance given the frontal passage, and had to be manually lowered - so it's good to see the latest NBM has corrected this issue. After the front lifts northward again on Friday, flow will become more southerly across much of eastern KY, and temperatures will begin another warming trend accordingly. The NBM's highs on in the upper 70s and low 80s may be slightly overdone given that rain is likely going into Friday afternoon (80-90% chance), but will see how this continues to trend as we move forward in time. Unfortunately (for outdoor activities) or fortunately (for drought relief), this weekend also looks to be quite wet. The boundary will remain planted north of the CWA across the Ohio Valley, keeping much of Kentucky in the warm sector with good moisture advection. This will pair with a slow-moving upper level trough over the central CONUS (strengthening SW flow into the Commonwealth), in addition to potential embedded impulses moving across. The combination will result in rain chances from Saturday through Monday, peaking during the afternoon when heating/mixing/instability will be at it's max. Temperatures during this 3-day period will be fairly steady-state, if not increasing slightly each day as southerly flow continues. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, while overnight low will be in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions under times of high clouds will prevail through the period. The one caveat will be some valley fog between 04Z and 13Z with local MVFR and IFR reductions that are not expected to affect any of the TAF sites. Look for some cumulus to again develop Tuesday afternoon between 4 and 6 kft agl. A PROB30 group has been added for the end of the TAF period at KIOB to account for the low potential for shower and thunderstorm activity which will be approaching the area toward the end of the TAF period Tuesday night. Light and variable winds will be the rule for the remainder of the overnight period, with southwesterly LLWS impacting western and northern TAF sites between 07z and ~13z. Winds will increase from the south to southwest at 5 to 12 kts again with some gusts up to 20 kts for Tuesday afternoon. These winds will diminish near sunset, but more exposed sites will keep a light southwest wind around 5 kts or so through the end of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...FAGAN/JMW AVIATION...CMC  132 FXUS62 KTAE 191030 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 630 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 629 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Hot temperatures are expected through late week. There is a high chance of highs at or above 90 across the area with the Florida Big Bend having a low chance of highs at or above 95. The heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without cooling/hydration. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through the next few days with coverage increasing this weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any stronger storms that develop. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Monday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The region remains on the western periphery of the Bermuda ridge with the surface high meandering in the western Atlantic. Aloft, mid/upper ridge arcs from the southern Gulf northeast to off the Atlantic coast while an upper low is situated in the Bahamas. Further west, longwave troughing extends through the Rockies into the eastern Pacific. In between the trough and ridge is a cold front stretching southwest from the Great Lakes to western Texas. Ridging will remain in place through this week despite the upper low trying to make it to the southeast coast then ridging will strengthen as the upper low translates south into the Caribbean. The central CONUS trough tries to move east but is essentially blocked by the upper ridge with shortwaves riding within the longwave flow over the ridge into southern Canada. The aforementioned cold front stalls in northern Alabama and Georgia Thursday then pushes north Friday and gradually dissipates this weekend. Around our neck of the woods, PWATs are around 1.2-1.3 inches today and Wednesday with limited 850-700mb moisture and stronger drier air aloft from 700-500mb. This will lead to less coverage of convection (20-40%) each afternoon, less cloud cover, and above normal high temperatures. Highs will be in the low 90s and pushing mid 90s in some locations which will set heat index values in the mid to upper 90s and close to 100F. PWATs begin a gradual increase Thursday though convection appears limited to the east coast seabreeze. Friday into the weekend, the western Atlantic high pressure shifts eastward with not as much dry mid level air as in mid week. PWATs increase to 1.7+ inches which, along with surface winds becoming more southerly, should increase seabreeze and diurnally driven convection each day. Rainfall chances increase to 40-60% heading into the weekend. With the added rainfall and potential cloud cover, high temperatures won't be as hot with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s. However, with the added moisture, heat index values will still run in the mid to upper 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A brief period of possible MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible for DHN and VLD this morning as low stratus or fog may develop around daybreak but should soon dissipate. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will shift southerly for ECP and DHN with the afternoon sea breeze before going calm by this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure will be the dominate weather feature across the northeast Gulf waters through the period producing light to occasionally moderate southeast to south winds and one to three foot seas into the first half of the upcoming weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Good dispersions are expected the rest of the week, though a few pockets of high dispersions may occur Thursday and Friday, as mixing heights will range 5500-7000 feet and transport winds of 10 mph. Moisture will continue to filter into the area keeping afternoon humidities above 40% each day. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible along the afternoon sea breeze. Some of these storms may produce gusty, erratic winds as well as frequent lightning strikes. Chances for rain gradually increases each day and especially into this upcoming weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through the next week, however, better chances will reside beginning this weekend. These could produce locally heavy downpours, which may lead to some nuisance flooding, mainly in urban or poor drainage areas. However, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area. While the rain is beneficial, significant improvement in drought conditions is not expected. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 70 92 70 / 10 0 10 10 Panama City 87 71 87 70 / 10 0 20 0 Dothan 91 70 91 69 / 0 0 20 10 Albany 91 69 92 69 / 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 92 67 92 69 / 20 0 0 0 Cross City 93 67 93 69 / 40 10 10 10 Apalachicola 85 74 85 71 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Scholl  516 FXUS61 KILN 191039 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 639 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Continued to tweak todays high temperatures slightly cooler from blended solution. Increased wind gusts this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening. 1) Above normal temperatures persist today. A cold front passes thru the Ohio Valley tonight, followed by cooler temperatures behind the front for mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A mid level shortwave and 5H 75-80KT jet pivots from the Upper MS Valley thru the Great Lakes today. An associated surface cold front tracks southeast across ILN/s area tonight. Shower and thunderstorms develop ahead of this front with a chance for strong to severe storms this afternoon into the evening. The most favored timing for severe storms is from 20Z-06z, though marginal confidence continues regarding onset time due to spread in model solutions. Moderately unstable environment develops with SBCAPE values around 2500 J/Kg ahead of the slowly advancing cold front. Forecast soundings indicate unidirectional wind flow with effective shear of 20 to 25 kts and DCAPE values approaching 1000 J/KG. So expect sufficient shear will be present for organized storms with the potential for strong to severe wind gusts as the primary threat. Hail will also be possible within the strongest storms, with this most favored area over the west. The severe threat decreases southeast due to the likelihood for storms to arrive later in the evening as instability decreases. PWATs increase to 1.6 to 1.8 inches which will offer heavy rain rates and the potential for localized flooding. KEY MESSAGE 1) A period of well above normal temperatures will persist today ahead of a cold front that passes through the area late tonight. High temperatures are expected to range from the mid-upper 80s west to around 90 in the east. Temperatures on Wednesday are mitigated in the wake of the front, along with any lingering showers and thunderstorms. Highs are expected to range from near 70 northwest to around 80 southeast. Cool temperatures linger into Thursday. Temperatures climb back to near normal Friday and then above normal this weekend. With the increase in temperatures and moisture, unsettled weather will return for the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A few lingering showers may affect the TAF from a VFR cloud deck this morning and any visibility impacts will be brief MVFR restrictions. Otherwise, there will just be mid and high clouds. Few to scattered cumulus will develop with heating today. Additional storms are expected to develop late this afternoon into tonight. A fair bit of uncertainty continues to exist regarding onset of the storms. Most favored timeframe is after 20Z. Have a mention of thunderstorms into the overnight hours ahead of a slow moving cold front. The front passes thru the TAF sites late tonight with a wind shift to the northwest. There is a good signal for low ceilings behind this front. Have widespread ceilings dropping to MVFR but a period of IFR is possible. Southerly winds will increase with gusts around 25 kts this afternoon. Southwest winds around 10 kts shift to the northwest late with the frontal passage. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Wednesday morning and then again Friday into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR  581 FXUS61 KRNK 191041 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 641 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. Overall, limited changes were needed. A cold front is still expected to arrive on Wednesday resulting in a chance of showers/storms. Rain chances continue through weekend and into early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday. Cooler weather late week into Memorial Day weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend beginning with a cold front on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday. Cooler weather late week into Memorial Day weekend. Southerly flow will persist across the Eastern CONUS through Wednesday due to a large Bermuda high in the western Atlantic. Heights continue to increase today so expecting another round of mid 90s east of the mountains with some of the higher elevations reaching low 90s. Scattered afternoon cumulus possible, but with ridging continuing to build, this will likely suppress any afternoon shower/storm potential. Heat will continue into Wednesday, but afternoon highs could be a few degrees lower across the mountains due to clouds and developing afternoon showers/storms. East of the mountains, likely to see another day with highs in the low/mid 90s. Although heat indices will not be dangerously high during this heat wave, it has been nearly a year since temperatures have been over 90 degrees for several days in a row. Stay hydrated, limit outdoor activity, and wear light and loose fitted clothing to help reduce the risk of heat illnesses. Relief from the heat arrives by Thursday, once the cold front moves into the area, with much cooler weather and highs in the 60s/70s the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend beginning with a cold front on Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the region from the northwest as an upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec and Ontario. The lagging cold front looks to provide some forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity, with modest deep layer shear in the 20-30 knot range Wednesday afternoon. This amount of deep layer shear combined with instability values in the 500-1000 J/Kg will likely lead to some multicellular clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening across the region. With these shear and instability values, some hail and damaging wind gusts can't be ruled out across the area. With this potential, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) remains in place to account for severe weather potential across portions of Virginia on Wednesday afternoon/evening. By Thursday, high pressure will begin to build across southern Canada as the cold front stalls across the region. Moist east/northeast flow will set in, which will keep temperatures cooler, along with a continued chance of showers. With stable east flow, thunderstorm potential appears to be low, with the highest chances remaining south of the forecast area. Cool wedge to persist into Friday, along with chance of rain. Mid- level disturbances look to continue to slide east over the region, which will keep rain chances in the forecast each day through the weekend and into the early portion of next week, likely bringing much needed and beneficial rainfall to the area. Temperatures will warm gradually into the beginning of next week as cool air wedge begins to break down. Although repeated rainfall looks to occur into early next week, widespread convectively enhanced rainfall not looking overly likely, therefore flooding potential remains very localized. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to remain at all terminals through the TAF forecast period. Winds will generally remain out of the south/southwest through the TAF period. Light winds expected through the morning, then increase to around 10 knots with periodic gusts 15-20 knots at all terminals this afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... More widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected starting Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. Rain and storm chances and cloud cover linger through the end of the week with the system possibly stalling across the area. Periods of sub- VFR conditions through the weekend. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible today. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Tuesday, May 19, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 96 in 1962 69 in 2022 95 Lynchburg 93 in 1962 66 in 2022 95 Danville 95 in 1962 69 in 1962 96 Bluefield 89 in 1911 66 in 1977 86 Blacksburg 91 in 1911 61 in 1938 90 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/EB AVIATION...BMG CLIMATE...RCS  549 FXUS63 KPAH 191040 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 540 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Quad State this afternoon into tonight, with a 60-90% chance of rain peaking this evening. A few isolated strong to severe storms are possible during peak heating, with damaging winds being the main hazard of concern. - Daily rain chances continue over the next week, with at least a 30-50% chance or greater of rain each day. Thursday will be the driest day with rain chances confined to mainly the south. - Temperatures trend below normal after today into the 70s along with a decrease in humidity before quickly rebounding back into the 80s by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An MCS upstream this morning across Missouri will set the stage for more unsettled weather later today. Ahead of an approaching cold front, an influx of moisture will cause dewpoints to rise near 70. High temperatures will be unseasonably warm in the mid to upper 80s with the exception of the far west due to more cloud cover. An increase in the pressure gradient will support deep layer mixing in the boundary layer that will yield breezy conditions with wind gusts between 20-25 mph. As a prefrontal mid-level impulse approaches midday, the CAMs differ on the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms along residual outflow boundaries. The 0z ARW and HRRR keep convection this afternoon more scattered with storms growing more upscale tonight. Meanwhile the NSSL, FV3, and newer hourly runs of the HRRR show more robust convection occurring during the afternoon with a line propagating east. Despite the uncertainly in the timing of storm coverage, rain chances increase late this afternoon into the evening, peaking at a 60-90% chance. Although the SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather (Level 2/5) over much of the Quad State, the shear will be more meager compared to yesterday with 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear at best. However, given a robust MLCAPE axis of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates of 8.0 to 8.5 C/km, the thermodynamics will still support an isolated severe storm with damaging winds being the main hazard of concern if convection can become organized during peak heating. The main forcing mechanism will be surface convergence as the better upper level kinematics lift more north through the afternoon which may limit the potential. With that said, the other concern will be torrential downpours that will be capable of causing localized flash flooding issues in the typical low-lying locations with PWATs around 1.75 to 2.00 inches. Despite the cold front pushing south of the FA on Wednesday, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into the latter half of the week, with a 30-50% chance confined to the southern most counties on Thursday when the driest conditions are progged. High temperatures will also be a few degrees below normal in the 70s along with lower humidity as northerly flow associated with a ~1030 mb sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes region advects in drier air. The more comfortable airmass will not last for long as the front lifts back north on Friday, causing humidity levels to quickly rebound along with a warming trend into the 80s for the upcoming weekend. Isentropic lift will also yield numerous showers and thunderstorms, with a 80-90% chance of rain peaking during the morning hours on the NBM. Daily storm chances then continue into early next week, with high temperatures trending back into the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 540 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions to start the TAF period willgive way to intermittent restrictions between 16-23z as convection moves across the region. The latest trends are a bit faster, with storms now moving through during peak heating. An isolated severe storm with damaging winds will be possible; otherwise, showers return overnight with MVFR/IFR conditions. Breezy south to southwest winds will gusts to 20-25 kts this afternoon, shifting northwest to north between 5-10 kts overnight. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...DW  638 FXUS62 KILM 191043 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 643 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 12Z TAF discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures well above normal, particularly for areas west of I-95, will continue through Thursday. 2) Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures well above normal, particularly for areas west of I-95, will continue through Thursday. An upper high will shift into the Atlantic and leave an axis of higher heights from the Gulf into the central Atlantic, and this is responsible for the sustained period of hot inland temperatures, which should last through Thursday. Sinking air below the upper ridge will create a deep warm, dry layer in the middle troposphere, supporting abnormally warm surface temperatures. Models have maintained their 850 mb temp forecasts of +16C to 18C (at or above the 90th percentile climatological values for this time of year), which increases confidence in our forecast of 90+ degree heat continuing through Thursday for locations away from the daily cooling influences of the sea breeze. Our forecast is for 90+ degree heat inland through Thursday. Since Florence and Lumberton highs reached 90 degrees on Sunday, a five day streak would eclipse this year's earlier streak of four days of 90 degree temps recorded from April 15-18 in both Florence and Lumberton. Coastal portions of the Carolinas should remain significantly cooler than inland due to sustained south winds dragging air across nearshore water still near 70 degrees. The timing of the cold front looks to have slowed to Thursday night, stalling in the area Friday before lifting north once more for the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas. Dry weather will come to an end as a front shifts in from the north on Thursday. There's reasonable uncertainty on placement of highest POPs day to day as we deal with a stalled front in or near the area and the daily sea breeze. The front should lift north of the area into the weekend but the warm, humid air mass will continue to support at least daily pop-up shower and storm chances through the end of the period. POPs Thursday through the weekend have been lowered to reflect trends from non-NBM guidance. For now, highest precip chances will be Friday with the frontal passage, but lack of any PVA aloft will limit widespread coverage. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Any MVFR/IFR from fog and stratus in the area will dissipate by 12Z leaving VFR at all sites well into the evening. Fog will again be a concern and guidance is showing a modest increase in moisture in the lowest levels. The moisture remains shallow, although boundary layer winds will decrease slightly. This all suggests fog will be more widespread and have more staying power than what has been seen this morning. Once again the sea breeze will develop and push well inland. Coastal terminals will see gusts 15-20 kt by midday. Sea breeze will reach FLO/LBT between 22Z and 00Z. Extended Forecast...MVFR/IFR fog/ceilings are possible Wednesday through Saturday mornings, generally in the 08z-12z timeframe. Confidence is moderate. Potential for daytime restrictions Friday and Saturday due to convection. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Pattern remains unchanged with Bermuda High resulting in southerly flow across the waters. Midday sea breeze will enhance wind speeds close to shore with potential for 10-15 kt gusting to 20 kt. However, the majority of the waters will see wind speeds closer to 10 kt with limited gusts. A southeast swell 2-3 ft will be the only significant wave through tonight. Wednesday through Sunday... Southerly flow will remain in control through the period with increasing shower/storm chances Thursday onwards. A front will approach the area Friday but for now is not expected to clear the waters. Should it, winds could turn E to even NE during Friday before the front lifts north again later Friday night. Otherwise, winds speeds will be enhanced each afternoon close to the coast to ~15 kts. Seas within 20nmi will be 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft beyond. The primary swell will be SE at 8-9 seconds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...III MARINE...III/LEW  884 FXUS62 KGSP 191046 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 646 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation discussion was updated to reflect the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A summer-like pattern will continue through Wednesday, with above normal temperatures and increasing humidity. Chances for mountain diurnal convection increase Wednesday afternoon as a front approaches. 2. A cold front will bring better rain chances Thursday into the weekend, but any drought relief will be limited. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: A summer-like pattern will continue through Wednesday, with above normal temperatures and increasing humidity. Chances for mountain diurnal convection increase Wednesday afternoon as a front approaches. We seem to be on track with flattening the mid/upper ridge on the East Coast through mid-week as a powerful system lifts northeast from the Plains to eastern Canada. However, a new wrinkle has appeared in the guidance today in the form of a curious weak upper low drifting northwestward to the north of the Bahamas. This doesn't really appear to have much potential to develop into anything, but it would introduce a weakness in what would have otherwise been a more persistent southwesterly flow aloft that would have been more efficient in moving moisture northeastward from the Gulf. Instead, it splits the ridge between the old anticyclone moving eastward away from the East Coast, and a remnant ridge over the eastern Gulf. This will not do anything to improve our chances for rain or the rainfall amounts should showers develop. For today, the CAMs keep us dry, as expected, but this would have ramifications starting Wednesday afternoon. The new guidance keeps a cold front strung out across the TN Valley to Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday night, which is to say, to our west and north. The CAMS go out far enough with this cycle to shed some light on coverage for Wednesday afternoon and there are some differences, with the HRRR being the most sparse. Precip probs have been tempered by the HRRR and lowered a bit from what the NBM indicates for now, and generally kept over the mountains. The threat for severe storms appears to be low because of a lack of buoyancy and shear in the latest RAP. Precip amounts would also be modest. As for temps, they continue to look summery, with highs running 7-12 degrees above normal, which should result in seasonally mild overnight lows and then highs generally in the lower 90s by Wednesday afternoon. This would still be several degrees below records and not problematic with regard to the heat index as the air mass will remain too dry. Key message 2: A cold front will bring better rain chances Thursday into the weekend, but any drought relief will be limited. Our weather situation looks unsettled beginning on Thursday and continuing perhaps through the end of the forecast period as the upper pattern keeps a mean trof to our west and ridge over the East Coast that maintains a southwesterly flow aloft and the Gulf open. Details are sketchy of course, but the cold front should move into the area on Thursday and provide the focus for numerous showers and storms. The boundary will drop south of the forecast area at some point Thursday or Thursday night either as outflow from convection or as a weak cold air damming high wedges down from the Great Lakes. This makes the forecast for Thursday uncertain, particularly in terms of high temps which are still forecast to be warm for the time being. It could easily end up ten degrees less than forecast, but the 10-15 degree drop on Friday looks like the better bet as the signal for cold air damming looks a little bit stronger. The weekend is also more up in the air because the new GFS suggests the weak wedge may persist through Saturday and into Sunday, so precip chances remain high and temps might not return to normal as fast as thought. By the time we get into the early part of next week, the guidance shows a southern stream system lifting out of the southern Plains toward the TN Valley region, which would keep some periodic forcing/focus for above normal chances of rain each day. On the one hand, there isn't much of a signal for heavy rain in any of this, so no meaningful drought relief is suggested. On the other hand, this pattern would, at a minimum, keep the situation from getting any worse. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period. Satellite imagery shows an extensive area of fog and low stratus over the Coastal Plain, but it has made little progress and has yet to reach the Fall Line, so it looks like KCLT will be spared. However, there are some low clouds to the southeast, so a FEW035 will be carried first thing this morning. Otherwise, wind will be light from the S to SW again today, with a few high-based stratocu. Persistence looks good for tonight, meaning more light/variable winds and scattered cirrus. Outlook: Increasing moisture will bring a more active pattern for mainly diurnal convection beginning Wednesday afternoon and then continuing through the end of the week. The potential for overnight fog/low clouds will increase as well. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ PM  886 FXUS64 KLIX 191046 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 546 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and widespread Wednesday through the weekend. 7 day rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches in the northwest to less than an inch of much of coastal MS and extreme SELA. - Minor coastal flooding may slightly impact typically known problem areas like Waveland, MS today and Wednesday around midday. - Temperatures are forecast to be generally near to warmer than normal through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 112 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The upper pattern this evening shows a ridge along the Atlantic Coast with a trough from the Canadian Prairie Provinces to Nevada. At the surface, the Bermuda high extended westward across much of the northern Gulf. A frontal boundary was over the Plains States. Locally, skies were partly to mostly cloudy at midnight with temperatures in the mid and upper 70s and dew points in the mid 70s. Looks like summer has arrived. Precipitable water values from the 00z upper air sounding across the region were in the 1.6-1.7 range, which is between the 75th and 90th percentile for mid-May. Those values don't really change much between now and Friday. What does gradually change is the track of upper shortwaves in the southwesterly mean flow over the next few days. The track of the impulse along the Texas coast this morning looks like it will remain mainly to the north and west of our area. So, similar to yesterday, soundings will support isolated to scattered convective development, but we don't anticipate organized convection this afternoon in our CWA. The nearest organized convection this afternoon looks like it will be in the Arklatex area. There is at least some potential for the Arklatex complex to develop a cold pool which could force it southeastward toward the local area this evening and overnight. If this does occur, it would have the potential to produce damaging winds, but that's a conditional threat and not a certainty. Coverage of convection yesterday was considerably less than what the NBM numbers indicated, and this looks to be true again today. Considering that, and the high temperatures from Monday, bumped forecast highs up a couple degrees for this afternoon. Wednesday's shortwave exiting the trough will track a little closer to the local area, producing somewhat higher areal coverage of convection, and thus, slightly cooler high temperatures. By Thursday and Friday, shortwaves will be tracking just about over our area, with likely or higher PoPs looking justified. While there doesn't appear to be a great threat of severe weather beyond the next 24 hours, heavy rainfall will be the main or ongoing threat for the second half of the week. With precipitable water values remaining around the 90th percentile, and storm motions probably not much more than around 10 knots through at least Thursday, any areas that receive repeat convective cells could have issues with street flooding. The main threat area would look to be across the northwest, along and west of a McComb to Baton Rouge line. We'll take this day by day, but there's at least some potential we may need a Flood Watch at some point later this week. There won't be much day to day change in temperatures with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s that will be more determined by when precipitation occurs during the day in any one location. Convective temperatures will be pretty close to 90 every day, so that's a pretty decent starting point, but areas that see midday thunderstorms will fall a little short of that. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 70s, but if a cold pool develops with a complex of thunderstorms, that would knock lows down a bit. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday) Issued at 112 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through the weekend and into the start of the new workweek next week the region will remain on the western periphery of the H5 ridge over the northeast Gulf. This will keep the active southwesterly flow aloft overheard and will continue promote a wet pattern with little changes expected through the period. The main concern will be timing of H5 vorts as the move northeast within the flow. Overall, think the better rainfall chances will be during the afternoon hours where impulses may align with afternoon heating, but even during the off times there could still be some scattered convection possible. PWATS during this time will close in on 2.0 inches so cannot rule out localized flooding potential, especially west of I55 where the best ascent will be vs MS Gulf Coast closer to the 592dam ridge. Temperatures in the long term look to be held down just slightly due to higher POPs and cloudiness with most locations warming to around seasonal averages during the afternoon hours. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Mostly VFR conditions early this morning, although there are occasional patches of clouds as low as BKN007 at KBTR. At other terminals, it's closer to FL010 to FL020. As we get heating this morning, cloud bases will lift to FL025 to FL030 or perhaps a little higher. Areal coverage of SHRA/TSRA is expected to remain isolated through at least 21z, and not planning on any real mention prior to that point. Any organized TSRA would come from storms that would initiate well to the northwest. If they become cold pool dominant, there would be potential to reach at least our northwest (KBTR/KMCB/KHDC) terminals during the late afternoon or evening before dissipating. Will carry PROB30 for those. Low clouds and visibilities are possible toward sunrise Wednesday, especially if a terminal gets precipitation this afternoon/evening. Will mention IFR at KMCB after 09z Wednesday, and primarily MVFR elsewhere. && .MARINE... Issued at 112 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A large area of high pressure will remain situated over the western Atlantic through the week and into the weekend. This will maintain light to moderate onshore flow through the time. Winds will bounce around headline criteria over the next 24 to 36 hours with sustained winds right around 15 kts, especially closer to the coast. Exercise Caution headlines will be in effect for the remainder of the night for the waters west of the mouth of the river along with Breton and Chandeleur Sound. As for showers and thunderstorms daily isolated to scattered light showers will be possible each day however the bulk of the coverage will remain inland. With any thunderstorm locally hazardous winds and waves can be expected. One last hiccup is maybe some very minor coastal flooding impacts, mainly around the Waveland area given the high astronomical tides and persistent southerly winds. Today midday may be the peak of any tidal impacts. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW  912 FXUS64 KSHV 191047 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 547 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 107 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening areawide. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats, but a tornado cannot be ruled out. - Widespread rainfall is expected almost every day through the next week. By next Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches in most locations. - Rainfall totals are generally expected to be spread out over a long duration. However, flash flooding will become a concern by the end of the week, and especially during the weekend as soils become saturated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 107 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A very active and wet weather pattern is expected across the entire forecast area for the next seven days. Our first chance for rain is already taking shape in the form of a convective complex from Missouri, into Southeast Kansas, and Northwest Oklahoma. These storms are developing along an advancing cold front. The storms should weaken during the nighttime hours, but scattered convection should begin affecting locations north of Interstate 30 by mid to late morning today. Thunderstorm intensity and coverage should increase as another linear complex develops by early afternoon ahead of the cold front and along remnant outflow boundaries. Deep layer shear will be somewhat modest but sufficient to support a few severe thunderstorms when combined with moderate to strong instability between 2000 and 3000 J/kg. Damaging winds should be the primary threat, especially as the line surges southward, likely reaching I-20 by late afternoon, and moving south of the forecast area during the early evening. However, large hail and a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Model guidance suggests a large area of rain and thunderstorms will persist behind the initial line gradually decreasing in coverage, but not ending completely Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. No additional severe weather risk is currently forecast beyond early Tuesday evening. The cold front will slowly move southward into the forecast area and is expected to become stationary near or just south of I-20 by Wednesday evening. A shortwave trough embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft should bring another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area. This will just be the first in a parade of shortwave troughs to move northeast across the region with another expected during the day Thursday, Friday, and Saturday before a much stronger upper trough develops across Western and Northern Texas late Saturday and into Sunday. More organized convection and heavier rain rates may occur Sunday as the developing trough induces surface cyclogenesis, increasing vertical ascent, wind shear, and moisture flow into the region. Drought conditions persist across the region, including large areas of D3 (Extreme Drought) per the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. We need the rainfall. Despite the forecast generally showing continuous PoPs, showers and thunderstorms will not be ongoing for every hour of the next seven days, but there will be a lot of rain. Potential rainfall totals through next Tuesday could be between 3 and 7 inches in most locations. Most of this will occur over a fairly long period of time. However, soils will become increasingly saturated with time. Flash flooding may begin to become a concern by Thursday or Friday, especially across portions of East Texas south of I-20. A greater risk for flooding may occur Sunday with the more powerful upper trough over the Southern Plains. Otherwise, low temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with daytime highs holding steady in the lower 80s. The exception will be today where daytime highs across much of the area ahead of the front will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s, possibly higher if the convection arrives later in the day. /Nuttall/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR ceilings are in and out across our airspace and while this cloud cover may become a little more dense as we transition into the post-sunrise hours, still believe we will see VFR conditions preceding strong to severe thunderstorms later today. Still looking like an active period this afternoon through this evening with strong to severe thunderstorms impacting all terminals by this afternoon into the early evening hours before moving rapidly south and east of our southern most terminals just before midnight if HRRR timing is correct. Timed this precipitation along a southeast moving squall line through our airspace with VCTS and TEMPO groups for much lower VSBY and stronger convective wind gusts. Otherwise, outside of convection, look for SSE to SSW winds today near 7-12kts sustained with gusts upwards of 25kts. Kept VCSH going post line of storms overnight along with MVFR ceilings areawide. /13/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 107 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Spotter activation may be needed areawide today through early this evening. /Nuttall/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 90 71 84 70 / 70 80 60 70 MLU 92 71 85 69 / 40 80 70 70 DEQ 83 66 81 65 / 90 40 50 60 TXK 89 68 84 67 / 90 50 50 60 ELD 90 68 83 66 / 80 70 70 60 TYR 88 69 82 68 / 90 80 70 60 GGG 90 69 83 69 / 80 80 70 60 LFK 91 72 85 71 / 30 70 90 60 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...09 AVIATION...13  930 FXUS62 KMLB 191047 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 647 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at ALL central Florida Atlantic beaches today and may continue through much of this week. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged! - Increasingly humid conditions into this weekend will gradually expand the Moderate HeatRisk across east central Florida. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms move inland with the sea breeze during the afternoons, though most will remain dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Current-Tonight...Isolated showers continue to drift onshore prior to sunrise this morning embedded within east to southeasterly flow. This activity is forecast to continue through the early morning hours, before convection becomes greater focused on the interior and western half of the peninsula later in the day (PoPs around 20% or less this morning). High pressure remains offshore from the Mid-Atlantic seaboard today, with east to southeasterly flow enhancing to around 15 mph and gusts to 20-25 mph behind the sea breeze. PWATs near 1.5" and a mid to upper level low in the vicinity of the Bahamas will lead to continued isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon over the far interior (PoPs 20-30%), but the highest chances remain west of Leesburg. Although a vast majority of the forecast area is expected to remain dry, CAMs notoriously struggle to resolve isolated onshore- moving convection, so a few showers cannot be ruled out along the coast this afternoon. Lingering drier air in the mid-levels (DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and cooler 500 mb temperatures (near -10 C) could lead to a few strong storms, with wind gusts near 50 mph and small hail. Regardless, additional showers and storms are once again forecast for the local Atlantic water overnight during the convective maximum, a few of which will likely drift onshore into coastal areas through early morning. High temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90 today, with little relief overnight as lows linger in the 70s for most areas and near 80 along the coast. If trying to beat the heat at the beaches, be aware there is a High Risk for rip currents. Entering the water is strongly discouraged. Wednesday-Tuesday...The ridge remains over the western Atlantic through the period, with its axis stretched generally towards the Carolinas into the weekend. Aloft, the mid to upper level low drifts towards the east coast of Florida through late week, before it weakens and riding develops for the long weekend. Into early next week, models suggest the surface high finally begins to drift southward, though this has very little, if any, effect on the local pattern. Overall, little change is expected to the Florida peninsula's weather pattern over the next seven days. Ridging to the northeast maintains east to southeast flow, which increases to around 15 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph, each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Embedded isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will remain possible during the overnight and early morning hours, occasionally drifting onshore, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Then, convection focuses on the interior or western half of the peninsula, with the greatest coverage of showers and storms along the sea breeze collision in the late afternoon and evening. PoPs each day through the work week are generally 20-30%, though most will likely remain dry. Moisture increases from the Atlantic into the weekend, increasing PoPs slightly to 40-50%. Lingering drier air in the mid-levels could support a few strong wind gusts in any more developed storms through Friday, though increasing moisture and warming 500mb temperatures look to reduce that threat into the weekend. Onshore flow keeps high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. However, this will also lead to overnight lows remaining in the 70s, at times even near 80 along the immediate coast. As moisture increases into the weekend, so do heat indices, which creep into the upper 90s to near 100. Humid conditions and little relief overnight will lead to increasing coverage of Moderate HeatRisk. Use caution during the heat of the day, especially this weekend, by staying hydrated and taking breaks from the heat. A High to high-end Moderate Risk for rip currents looks to continue through the period, thanks to onshore flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain east to southeast flow through the weekend. Winds remain around 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 20-25 kts along the coast behind the sea breeze. Embedded isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible each day, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours, drifting onshore into coastal areas. A few stronger cells could produce wind gusts near 30 kts. Seas up to 5 ft offshore this morning diminish, with prevailing 2-4 ft seas into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 647 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Mostly VFR. Isolated onshore moving showers continue this morning with VCSH mentioned at all coastal terminals and SFB. Cannot rule out occasional lightning strikes, but coverage remains too low for mention of TS in the TAF at this time. Coastal shower activity is forecast to generally diminish into the early afternoon once the sea breeze passes. East winds increase 12-15 kts this afternoon with locally higher gusts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure centered well offshore will help maintain east- southeasterly winds through the week and into the weekend. Sustained winds increase to 10-20 mph behind the sea breeze each afternoon, with gusts around 25 mph, especially along the coast. The greatest chance for rain and storms will be generally south of the Cape in the mornings, transitioning inland with the sea breeze into the afternoon and evenings. However, any convection will be isolated to scattered in nature, so many locations will remain dry. Briefly higher wind gusts embedded in showers or lightning storms will be possible. Ongoing drought and breezy winds will prolong fire sensitive conditions and any lightning strikes could lead to new fire starts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 73 87 73 / 20 10 10 10 MCO 89 72 89 72 / 20 0 30 10 MLB 86 77 86 76 / 10 10 20 10 VRB 86 76 87 75 / 10 20 20 10 LEE 90 72 90 72 / 20 0 30 10 SFB 90 72 90 72 / 20 0 20 10 ORL 89 72 89 72 / 20 0 30 10 FPR 86 75 86 74 / 10 20 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wishard AVIATION...Law  957 FXUS63 KARX 191048 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 548 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and dry through midweek with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. - Patchy to areas of frost possible in north-central and central Wisconsin tonight and Wednesday night. - Periodic shower and storms chances from Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and Storms Through Early This Morning Showers and storms continue ahead a cold front that will move through in the early morning hours. With the better instability and low-level shear to our south, not much if any severe weather is expected. Some gusty winds and small hail will be the main threats. There looks to be a small break in between the storms ahead of the cold front and the cold front itself, which would have a line of light to moderate rain moving through the forecast area between 09 and 14Z. Cooler and Dry for the Rest of Today Through Thursday After the cold front moves through, surface high pressure builds in and remains over the area through Thursday. This will keep the CWA under dry conditions and with the Upper Midwest on the edge of a longwave trough, temperatures will be on the cooler side with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night get down into the upper 30s to potentially the mid 30s for portions of Clark and Taylor counties. There could be some patchy areas of frost with these low temperatures. There is a shortwave that pushes north from the Plains into the Upper Midwest, however uncertainty exists on if we get any precipitation from it. Currently the LREF gives a 30 to 50% chance for measurable rainfall to occur. Periodic Shower and Storm Chances From Friday into Early Next Week Deterministic and ensemble forecasts both favor the upper-level pattern remaining in the zonal to southwest flow. During this same time period there are a few disturbances that move into the Upper Midwest that increase precipitation chances. Heading into early next week, temperatures warm back up into the low 80s as some southwest flow returns. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 546 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 IFR ceilings west of the Mississippi River Valley expected to become widespread through the early morning, eventually lifting through the early afternoon. Confidence in KLSE dropping below MVFR is low given the lower elevation and will be detail to monitor as it may fluctuate below MVFR through late morning. Low level cold air advection will keep stronger northwest winds through the daytime hours. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...JAR  948 FXUS63 KJKL 191048 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 648 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast later today and tonight, with active weather expected to continue through the upcoming holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to bring widespread rainfall that is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 628 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 An update is out with minor revisions to hourly Sky and PoPs through this evening based on observed and model trends. Also updated latest hourly T/Td/Sky grids. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Upper ridging will gradually get nudged southeast through Wednesday as a cold front reaches the area and begins to stall near or over the area Wednesday afternoon. This stalling, or at least slowing down, of the cold front occurs as the upper flow becomes parallel to the cold front orientation. PoPs gradually increase from the west through Wednesday as the front approaches. Most if not all of the forecast area will stay dry today with the ridging trying to hold tough to the east and southeast while the front slowly makes progress, with highest chances at showers or a thunderstorm in the Bluegrass region. Chances for rain increase into the evening and overnight as mid- level heights begin to gradually fall, as shortwaves move up the Ohio River Valley, mostly but not completely skirting Eastern Kentucky. If a storm, or storms, were to reach the forecast area late this afternoon into this evening, there is sufficient shear and possibly instability to support an isolated severe storm in the Bluegrass region. The front reaches the CWA from the northwest late Wednesday afternoon, with a mid-level speed max of 35 to 45 kts developing during the day just north of the area possibly providing enough shear for an isolated strong to severe storm in the afternoon should sufficient instability exists, which looks likely at this time. The SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook expands the Marginal Risk into far eastern parts of the forecast area, but future outlooks may extend that further into the forecast area based on the forecast evolution and placement of this mid-level speed max. Highs will again threaten records in the upper 80s to lower 90s today, but temperatures will begin to trend lower as humidity and rain chances increase from the west and northwest for Wednesday, with current forecasts suggesting lower to mid 80s across the area, warmest in the Upper Big Sandy Basin where rain is likely to hold off the longest into the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 If the long term period could be summarized with just one word, it would be wet. The period will open Wednesday night with broad ridging over the southeastern US and troughing over the Hudson Bay. This will leave Kentucky in a regime of generally weak southwesterly flow aloft. With broad ridging over the southeastern CONUS, the surface cold front that passed through during the day on Wednesday will struggle to continue it's forward momentum through into the Mid- Atlantic coastal states. Instead, it's currently poised to stall over the periphery of the ridge (TN area to the Mid-Atlantic) Wednesday night and Thursday, before lifting into Kentucky again as a warm front on Friday. This pattern will bring multiple rounds of rain to the forecast area. As such, WPC has introduced multiple Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for the forecast area; one for our entire area Wednesday and Wednesday night (though expect most of the rain to fall during the day Wednesday in the short term portion of the forecast), another for the Lake Cumberland area on Thursday, and a third for our entire forecast area again on Friday. QPF does not look overly impressive on any given day; LREF guidance shows the chance of exceeding 0.5 of rain on any given day is low to moderate (maxing out at around 50% on Wednesday). However, this does not account for enhanced rain rates in any thunderstorms that do develop. If storms track over the same area for multiple days in a row, isolated instances of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. This is especially true closer to the KY/TN border, which will feel the greatest impacts of the stalling front. However, it should also be mentioned that the Lake Cumberland Region is in a moderate to severe drought - so any higher rain amounts that fall here will likely be beneficial. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the period. Following the frontal passage, CAA via postfrontal winds will keep maxTs generally below normal, with a defined thermal gradient over our forecast area as the front stalls. Currently, the NBM is outputting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for the north and upper 70s for the southern CWA. The previous forecast package noted that the NBM had 80s in the southern CWA, which appeared to be an outlier compared to other guidance given the frontal passage, and had to be manually lowered - so it's good to see the latest NBM has corrected this issue. After the front lifts northward again on Friday, flow will become more southerly across much of eastern KY, and temperatures will begin another warming trend accordingly. The NBM's highs on in the upper 70s and low 80s may be slightly overdone given that rain is likely going into Friday afternoon (80-90% chance), but will see how this continues to trend as we move forward in time. Unfortunately (for outdoor activities) or fortunately (for drought relief), this weekend also looks to be quite wet. The boundary will remain planted north of the CWA across the Ohio Valley, keeping much of Kentucky in the warm sector with good moisture advection. This will pair with a slow-moving upper level trough over the central CONUS (strengthening SW flow into the Commonwealth), in addition to potential embedded impulses moving across. The combination will result in rain chances from Saturday through Monday, peaking during the afternoon when heating/mixing/instability will be at it's max. Temperatures during this 3-day period will be fairly steady-state, if not increasing slightly each day as southerly flow continues. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, while overnight low will be in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime hours, but will begin to deteriorate gradually from the northwest through the period with the approach of a cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms. Look for some cumulus to again develop this afternoon between 4 and 6 kft agl. PROB30 groups have been added to account for the low potential for showers and thunderstorms until after 06z tonight, when some sites go to prevailing showers. Light and variable winds will pick up out of the southwest over the next few hours with increasing daytime heating. Winds will increase from the south to southwest at 5 to 12 kts again with some gusts up to 20 kts for this afternoon, highest at KSYM and KIOB. These winds will diminish near sunset, but more exposed sites will keep a light southwest wind around 5 kts or so. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...FAGAN/JMW AVIATION...CMC  001 FXUS61 KGYX 191050 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 650 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Refreshing the aviation discussion for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot, well above normal temperatures move into the region today and Wednesday. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected today, with warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Another round of hot temperatures is possible Wednesday, mainly focused from the interior to the coast. 2. An approaching cold front will bring chances for thunderstorms today and chances for showers and storms Wednesday when the front crosses. Any thunderstorm that develops this afternoon will have the potential to become severe. 3. The second-half of the week will feature cooler temperatures and drier conditions. Unsettled weather is possible this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Not much has changed regarding the hot temperatures expected today and tomorrow. Any lingering fog over the coastal areas or interior should dissipate early this morning, giving way to a clear sky and plenty of sunshine. Rapid heating will lead to well above normal highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s across southern New Hampshire and portions of interior Maine. The Heat Advisory for Hillsborough and interior Rockingham counties looks to be in good shape with no changes anticipated. With limited moisture, heat indices will be a bit on the marginal side (approaching 95) but quite a change from what we have seen thus far in the Spring. Temperatures should remain quite warm overnight tonight as a southwest breeze continues ahead of an approaching cold front. Lows may only dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s across the south. Wednesday will be quite warm again but not as hot as today. Southern New Hampshire and interior/coastal Maine should still see highs in the mid 80s to around 90, but locations around and north of the mountains will be a bit cooler behind the front, mainly in the lower 70s to lower 80s. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The severe weather setup for today has become a little bit more interesting, especially over southern New Hampshire. A mid/upper level ridge will break down slightly through the day and most of the region will see some modest height falls. A weak surface low will move across Maine, dragging a surface trough with it. This boundary may be a focus for some isolated shower/storm development in the afternoon. These storms will be very hit or miss, and most locations will remain dry with limited synoptic forcing in the area. The one exception may be southern New Hampshire where a compact shortwave will move in from Vermont and provide some better lift. A few CAMs are now suggesting that a cluster of storms may develop in the early afternoon over the higher terrain in southern Vermont before moving into southern New Hampshire mid/late afternoon. NAM Nest soundings ahead of this modeled cluster suggest an environment characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30 to 35+ knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. This environment will be favorable for a few organized multicell clusters or even a transient supercell structure/bowing segment. Thus, any storms that move across southern New Hampshire could become severe capable of damaging winds up to 60 mph and some large hail. Forecast Significant Hail Parameter (SHIP) values are generally just less then 1 so the threat of very large hail seems low, but hail up to the size of ping pong balls seems plausible if we do see any transient supercell structures or sustained updrafts. The tornado threat appears to be fairly low given weak low-level shear. For the rest of the forecast area, some strong to marginally severe storms will be possible but instability will bedecreasing moving north/northeast and forcing becomes more nebulous. The shear profile will be fairly similar. Showers and storms will move out and/or diminish with the loss of heating but we could see a few showers linger across the mountains overnight. A cold front then moves across most of the forecast area early in the day on Wednesday. Thunderstorms on Wednesday will generally be limited to areas along and ahead of the front, which will likely be south of the mountains. We could see enough heating to see a stronger storm or two around the interior or extreme southeast New Hampshire before the front pushes out over the waters, but the probability for severe weather appears low at the moment. A few showers may linger behind the front. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure moves in from the west, bringing cooler and drier conditions. This high pressure will keep more active weather to the south of the region. Over the weekend, a low may move into the area and bring meaningful rain to the area. However, there is still some uncertainty in timing as some guidance brings in the unsettled weather on Sunday while others don't have precipitation moving in until Monday. High temperatures will generally be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12z Wednesday...VFR through early this afternoon before scattered showers/storms develop this afternoon into early evening. These may produce MVFR to IFR visibilities and strong winds, and TEMPO TSRA has been put in some of the TAFs where confidence is high enough. Otherwise west to south west winds will gust 15 to 25 kt today before diminishing this evening tonight. Showers/storms push offshore or dissipate this evening with mostly VFR overnight, except there is potential for MVFR ceilings and a few showers at HIE. LLWS may also need to be added for tonight in the next TAF issuance. Outlook: Wednesday: Scattered showers and TS may bring localized restrictions late morning early afternoon. Otherwise mainly VFR with gusts 20-25 kt out of the west. Wednesday night: VFR with NW winds gusting up to 20 kts. Thursday through Friday: Mainly VFR. Friday night through Saturday: Clouds may increase and lower across southern NH and Coastal Maine. Low confidence in height and extent, but could see periods of MVFR south of the mountains. && .MARINE... Onshore winds advect moisture over the coastal waters this morning which may lead to some areas of fog. Showers and storms develop inland this afternoon and may track towards the NH/ME coast by evening. SW winds continue overnight, nearing 20-25 kt, which is just shy of SCA criteria. However, seas are forecast to build to 5-6 ft over portions of the coast waters, and small craft advisory has been issued. Southwest winds turn westerly Wednesday as a cold front approaches and crosses the waters during the afternoon. Winds may gust up to 25 kts with seas approaching 5 feet. Winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds Thursday into Saturday as high pressure builds over the Northeast. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028. NH...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for NHZ013-014. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ012>015. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hargrove/Palmer AVIATION...Combs/Dumont/Hargrove  024 FXUS62 KMHX 191050 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 650 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased temps Thursday with frontal passage trending later. Updated aviation discussion for 19/06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dense fog possible for the morning commute today for parts of eastern NC 2) Above normal to near- record high temperatures and rain- free conditions to continue Wednesday. 3) A frontal system approaches the area Thursday, bringing the next appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Days of moisture advection has resulted in dewpoints around 70F across eastern NC. High pressure centered offshore is keeping winds light to calm across SW portions of the CWA, with decoupling allowing for the near surface layer to reach saturation. Already fog and low stratus obs have been observed in parts of Duplin and Onslow counties, and getting confirmation on satellite as well in the past half hour. Expecting fog and low stratus to slowly creep north and east to areas that experience light to calm winds. SPS or Dense Fog Advisory may be necessary near sunrise today. Conditions should rapidly improve by 9AM as strong daytime heating scours out any fog/low stratus. KEY MESSAGE 2...Notably warm low-level thicknesses beneath an anomalous mid-upper level ridging will continue to support above to well above normal temperatures across the Carolinas through Wednesday. Guidance shows similar low-level thicknesses each afternoon yielding highs generally in the lower 90s across the coastal plain but some warmer spots may reach mid 90s, remaining just shy of records. It will be closest across the coastal plain, however. Additionally, despite increasing low-level moisture, ridging aloft should provide sufficient subsidence to suppress convective activity outside of perhaps a rogue shower or thunderstorm where convergence is maximized along the seabreeze. Still, probs of this occuring are low enough to keep out of the forecast with this update. KEY MESSAGE 3...The mid-upper level ridge is forecast to break down some late-week and into the weekend. This should allow a front to drop south Thursday into Friday as it encounters the persistent ridging that has been over the region for much of the past week. Confidence is increasing on the front reaching our CWA, with the most likely outcome being the front briefly stalling between the NC/SC border and Cape Hatteras. Once the high to the north shifts offshore this weekend and ridging strengthens again to our south, the warm front will get clearance to shift back north. The front has trended a bit slower to reach the CWA with this update. As a result, we are forecast to have enough residence time of warm southerly flow Thursday morning and afternoon ahead of the front to see high temps in the upper 80s to near 90 inland. Increasing moisture and instability along the frontal zone should support an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. Probabilistic guidance shows a solid chance of 0.25"- 0.75" each day. However, it should be noted that those amounts will be highly dependent on the evolution of the frontal zone. Initially when the front drops into the area, there may be just enough flow aloft to support some thunderstorm organization. Model soundings show steep low level lapse rates and weak turning of low level winds ahead of the frontal passage Thursday and Saturday. A layer of dry air aloft could inhibit deep convection, but if updrafts are able to break through this, DCAPEs of 600-1000 J/kg could support a risk of strong to marginally severe winds. On the flip side, upper level dynamics and deep shear look unimpressive and could inhibit organized tstorms. This setup will be something to monitor the day of, with the later frontal passage timing allowing for greater instability Thursday. Friday, lower surface temps keep low level lapse rates more muted, and as a result a severe risk isn't present. Machine learning and analog guidance support the potential for strong to severe tstorms Thursday and Saturday as well. Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts are not expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing drought conditions. While probs are low, if we do see training storms over urban areas like Greenville, Jacksonville, and New Bern, minor flooding impacts could be seen despite the ongoing drought. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Fog and low stratus spreads through parts of eastern NC early this morning, bringing VLIFR to IFR conditions where observed. Vis and ceilings quickly lift with VFR conditions then forecast after about 12-13Z. Another rinse and repeat day on tap today with mostly clear skies outside of diurnal Cu field and breezy S'rly winds with gusts up to 15-20 kts in the afternoon behind the incoming seabreeze. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, fog and low stratus chances return with another night of light winds and substantial low level moisture. Outlook: A dry seabreeze pattern looks to continue through Wednesday. Beyond then, a frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... A summer-like pattern continues through Wednesday, with a daily building of winds to 10-20kt each afternoon and evening as the thermal gradient tightens. This will especially be the case for the inland rivers and sounds and the nearby coastal waters within 20nm of the coast. Seas will continue around 2-3ft, potentially up to 4 ft during the afternoon and evening. Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the area Thursday, then meander around the area through the upcoming weekend. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds and seas, but especially wind direction. In general, the risk of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front, with slightly higher chances of seeing 25+kt gusts behind the front. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms in the region Thursday through Sunday as well. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SK/RJ AVIATION...RJ MARINE...SK/RJ  011 FXUS63 KGRR 191050 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 650 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms today, some may be strong southeast of GRR - Cooler and drier air settles in for Wednesday and Thursday - Unsettled weather for Friday into the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Showers and storms today, some may be strong southeast of GRR A decaying area of showers and embedded thunderstorms are slowly pushing east from Wisconsin and Illinois at 345am with some scattered development over Lake Michigan. We expect the main area to move into the lakeshore counties between 600am and 800am. This activity should remain on the weak side given limited instability. It is being aided however by strong low level moisture transport which can never be underestimated. We will be monitoring but this convective activity should remain below severe criteria. The focus will then become the redevelopment this afternoon and early evening along and ahead of the advancing cold front. We are relying on the HREF for timing and location. We expected showers and storms to reintensify southeast of a line from Holland to Grand Rapids to Lansing. Storms should move through our southeast CWA (AZO, BTL, LAN and JXN) between 400pm and 800pm. MUCAPE values are more than adequate, forecast to be between 1,000 and 2,000 j/kg. The best shear lags the front, so deep layer values will only be in the 20-30 knot range. Bottom line severe weather is possible with wind being the main threat especially towards JXN. 35 knot winds at 850mb and 50 knots at 500mb support that thinking. - Cooler and drier air settles in for Wednesday and Thursday 850mb temperatures plunge as we head into Wednesday behind the cold front. +2C to +3C air will be over a large portion of the CWA on Wednesday which will hold highs to the 50s over Central Lower and the 60s to the south. Lows Wednesday night will reach the 30s over Central Lower and we will likely need Frost/Freeze headlines. The cool and dry weather will continue into Thursday as surface high pressure slides through the Great Lakes. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 60s area wide. - Unsettled weather for Friday into the weekend The models continue to show rain spreading back into the Great Lakes from the south and southwest on Friday. The rain chances will linger into the weekend. Embedded shortwaves in a developing southwest flow will be the culprit for the precipitation as will be weak front and surface low. Highs will warm into the 70s over the weekend. The south could see 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rain from Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and a few thunderstorms moved into Western Lower Michigan within the last hour or so. The activity is running into fairly stable air and has largely dissipated. VCSH is what we are looking at the next 4 to 6 hours given the widely scattered activity. It is not until this afternoon in the 19z to 23z time frame where showers and storms refire in earnest. AZO, BTL, LAN and JXN stand the best chances at thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. There is a chance of MVFR ceilings today, but conditions remain VFR at this point across Lower Michigan. A cold front will sweep through this evening ending any chance for showers or lower ceilings. Wind will be noticeable today from the southwest at 15 to 30 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 358 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 We have extended the Small Craft Advisory on Lake Michigan through 800am Wednesday for all zones between St. Joseph and Manistee. Strong southwest winds to 30 knots can be expected today before switching to the northwest behind the passage of a cold front thisevening. The northwest winds this evening will push towards 30 knots as well which is the reason for extending the SCA in time. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Duke  017 FXUS63 KJKL 191050 CCA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED National Weather Service Jackson KY 650 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast later today and tonight, with active weather expected to continue through the upcoming holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 628 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 An update is out with minor revisions to hourly Sky and PoPs through this evening based on observed and model trends. Also updated latest hourly T/Td/Sky grids. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Upper ridging will gradually get nudged southeast through Wednesday as a cold front reaches the area and begins to stall near or over the area Wednesday afternoon. This stalling, or at least slowing down, of the cold front occurs as the upper flow becomes parallel to the cold front orientation. PoPs gradually increase from the west through Wednesday as the front approaches. Most if not all of the forecast area will stay dry today with the ridging trying to hold tough to the east and southeast while the front slowly makes progress, with highest chances at showers or a thunderstorm in the Bluegrass region. Chances for rain increase into the evening and overnight as mid- level heights begin to gradually fall, as shortwaves move up the Ohio River Valley, mostly but not completely skirting Eastern Kentucky. If a storm, or storms, were to reach the forecast area late this afternoon into this evening, there is sufficient shear and possibly instability to support an isolated severe storm in the Bluegrass region. The front reaches the CWA from the northwest late Wednesday afternoon, with a mid-level speed max of 35 to 45 kts developing during the day just north of the area possibly providing enough shear for an isolated strong to severe storm in the afternoon should sufficient instability exists, which looks likely at this time. The SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook expands the Marginal Risk into far eastern parts of the forecast area, but future outlooks may extend that further into the forecast area based on the forecast evolution and placement of this mid-level speed max. Highs will again threaten records in the upper 80s to lower 90s today, but temperatures will begin to trend lower as humidity and rain chances increase from the west and northwest for Wednesday, with current forecasts suggesting lower to mid 80s across the area, warmest in the Upper Big Sandy Basin where rain is likely to hold off the longest into the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 If the long term period could be summarized with just one word, it would be wet. The period will open Wednesday night with broad ridging over the southeastern US and troughing over the Hudson Bay. This will leave Kentucky in a regime of generally weak southwesterly flow aloft. With broad ridging over the southeastern CONUS, the surface cold front that passed through during the day on Wednesday will struggle to continue it's forward momentum through into the Mid- Atlantic coastal states. Instead, it's currently poised to stall over the periphery of the ridge (TN area to the Mid-Atlantic) Wednesday night and Thursday, before lifting into Kentucky again as a warm front on Friday. This pattern will bring multiple rounds of rain to the forecast area. As such, WPC has introduced multiple Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for the forecast area; onefor our entire area Wednesday and Wednesday night (though expect most of the rain to fall during the day Wednesday in the short term portion of the forecast), another for the Lake Cumberland area on Thursday, and a third for our entire forecast area again on Friday. QPF does not look overly impressive on any given day; LREF guidance shows the chance of exceeding 0.5 of rain on any given day is low to moderate (maxing out at around 50% on Wednesday). However, this does not account for enhanced rain rates in any thunderstorms that do develop. If storms track over the same area for multiple days in a row, isolated instances of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. This is especially true closer to the KY/TN border, which will feel the greatest impacts of the stalling front. However, it should also be mentioned that the Lake Cumberland Region is in a moderate to severe drought - so any higher rain amounts that fall here will likely be beneficial. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the period. Following the frontal passage, CAA via postfrontal winds will keep maxTs generally below normal, with a defined thermal gradient over our forecast area as the front stalls. Currently, the NBM is outputting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for the north and upper 70s for the southern CWA. The previous forecast package noted that the NBM had 80s in the southern CWA, which appeared to be an outlier compared to other guidance given the frontal passage, and had to be manually lowered - so it's good to see the latest NBM has corrected this issue. After the front lifts northward again on Friday, flow will become more southerly across much of eastern KY, and temperatures will begin another warming trend accordingly. The NBM's highs on in the upper 70s and low 80s may be slightly overdone given that rain is likely going into Friday afternoon (80-90% chance), but will see how this continues to trend as we move forward in time. Unfortunately (for outdoor activities) or fortunately (for drought relief), this weekend also looks to be quite wet. The boundary will remain planted north of the CWA across the Ohio Valley, keeping much of Kentucky in the warm sector with good moisture advection. This will pair with a slow-moving upper level trough over the central CONUS (strengthening SW flow into the Commonwealth), in addition to potential embedded impulses moving across. The combination will result in rain chances from Saturday through Monday, peaking during the afternoon when heating/mixing/instability will be at it's max. Temperatures during this 3-day period will be fairly steady-state, if not increasing slightly each day as southerly flow continues. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, while overnight low will be in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime hours, but will begin to deteriorate gradually from the northwest through the period with the approach of a cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms. Look for some cumulus to again develop this afternoon between 4 and 6 kft agl. PROB30 groups have been added to account for the low potential for showers and thunderstorms until after 06z tonight, when some sites go to prevailing showers. Light and variable winds will pick up out of the southwest over the next few hours with increasing daytime heating. Winds will increase from the south to southwest at 5 to 12 kts again with some gusts up to 20 kts for this afternoon, highest at KSYM and KIOB. These winds will diminish near sunset, but more exposed sites will keep a light southwest wind around 5 kts or so. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...FAGAN/JMW AVIATION...CMC  096 FXUS61 KAKQ 191053 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 653 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 12z Aviation Discussion. SPC continues to outlook northern half of the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms Wednesday evening. Due to slower frontal timing, rain chances were lowered Wednesday night for Hampton Roads and northeast NC. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above-normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. 2) Rain chances increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the north, and from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning farther south. 3) After a cooler end to the work week, warmer conditions return for the Memorial Day weekend. However, unsettled conditions persist, with rain chances continuing each day through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above-normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture will maintain summer-like heat through midweek. Temperatures today will be similar to those of yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 90s, though slightly cooler along the immediate coast. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week as compressional heating maximizes ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong mixing and ongoing drought conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, falling back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temperatures, maintaining dry conditions into Wednesday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the north, and from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning farther south. By Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will approach the area and showers and storms are expected to develop, focusing along the pre-frontal trough to our northwest. Model trends continue to slow the arrival of the cold front, lagging into later Wednesday evening across the north, and Thursday morning south of US-460 into NE NC. 00z CAMs continue to show sparse convection only reaching northern and western portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro through Wednesday evening. SPC has maintained the northwestern half of the area, including the RIC metro, in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for now, with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. The risk of severe storms looks marginal locally, with the best forcing and instability confined just to our N/NW. The concern remains that storms may dissipate before reaching the area, but they remain possible nonetheless, with the best chance north of RIC to the VA Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Farther south, given the previously referenced concerns, have lowered PoPs into slight to low-end chance range for south-central and southeast VA into northeast NC for Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Better chances over these areas hold off into Thursday afternoon and evening, albeit with a lesser severe risk due to weaker instability and available bulk shear. KEY MESSAGE 3...After a cooler end to the work week, warmer conditions return for the Memorial Day weekend. However, unsettled conditions persist, with rain chances continuing each day through early next week. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada late Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen the SE ridge, while allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Meanwhile, the cold front pushes south of the area late Thursday and Friday. Increasing overrunning moisture and quickly rising PW values allow rain chances to ramp upquickly late Thursday and Thursday night, leaving an emerging cool air/CAD wedge setup for Friday, with highs in the 60s to 70s forecast. The parent high to the north is progressive, which should allow the wedge airmass to erode relatively quickly on Saturday. Broad SW flow should push the front back across our area Saturday as a warm front, with temperatures quickly returning above normal over the holiday weekend, though not quite as warm as what we are currently experiencing. Rain chances will be more convective/diurnally-driven over the weekend, with best chances likely in the afternoon and early evening each day. Thus, while some welcome rainfall is likely for much of the area, the holiday weekend is by no means shaping up to be a washout. Unfortunately, rainfall totals for the week do not look like the drought-busting rain we need. Multi-model ensemble guidance shows a mean of only 0.50-1.00" for the week. Note that with recent systems, the ensembles were quite bullish with precipitation totals and widely over-estimated multiple days out. Gradual warming is expected heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions across area terminals look to persist through the 12z TAF period. 1026+mb surface high pressure remains centered near Bermuda, with winds SSW 7-10 kt. Winds look to nudge up to 10-12kt by late this morning into the aftn, with occasional gusts to near 20kt during the aftn, and potentially a directional shift to SSE closer to the coast later in the aftn sea breeze. Outlook: VFR conditions expected to continue tonight and Wednesday as high pressure remains in control. S/SW winds likely gust to 15-20 kt once again Wednesday aftn. The next chance of rain and possible degraded flight conditions arrive with a cold front dropping across the region late Wednesday night into Thursday, with best chances of precipitation through Wed night north of RIC to SBY. Rain chances then increase over the rest of the area on Thursday, with sub-VFR CIGs to persist in a weak cool air wedge airmass Thu night and Friday. Gradually improving conditions are then expected late Friday and Saturday as the front returns back north as a warm front. While predominate VFR conditions likely return for the holiday weekend, flight restrictions will remain possible in scattered showers and isolated storms both Saturday and Sunday, along with potential VSBY restrictions in early morning ground fog. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds. - A front moves through late week, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions. High pressure remains centered near Bermuda this morning, extending across the Southeast. This pattern is typical of the summertime Bermuda High configuration and will continue today and into tomorrow. Current marine wind observation sites are measuring southwest winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. This stagnant pattern will allow winds to remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt outside of the daily mid to late-afternoon nearshore seabreeze through Wednesday. The afternoon breeze will likely bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each afternoon before winds veer back offshore and diminish some overnight. This pattern will finally start to break down as a cold front approaches the area late Wednesday into Thursday. This cold front is currently forecast to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the front, only brief SCA conditions are possible (mainly in the Bay) and conditions may stay under SCA criteria through next weekend. Whether or not the aforementioned front actually moves through or stalls across the area will play an important role in the wind regime late week into the weekend. With the continuity of guidance showing the front stalling over the area, this outcome is looking more likely, though SCA conditions will still remain marginal. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) today, with a low risk elsewhere. The moderate rip current risk likely continues for the northern beaches into Wednesday. With increasing winds and seas associated with a frontal passage on Thursday, all beaches will see a moderate rip current risk. && .CLIMATE... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... Richmond set a new record high Monday of 96 degrees. This broke the previous record of 95 degrees set in 1911. Another day of near-record to record-breaking heat is expected today, with record high minimum temperatures also possible. Record High Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High/Year High/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 72 (2018) 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM AVIATION...AJZ/MAM MARINE...AJB/NB CLIMATE...MAM  100 FXUS63 KIND 191053 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 653 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms and locally heavy rain possible again this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and localized flooding the primary concerns - Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the holiday weekend && .DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)... Issued at 342 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Today and Tonight - Quiet but mostly cloudy conditions are expected early this morning. The rapidly weakening northern extent of a line of showers currently over western Illinois will move into the area this morning and may produce some light rain in spots, though somewhat more substantial rain and thunderstorm chances will wait until later in the day when the cold front approaches the region. Ample instability and modest deep layer shear will exist to promote organization of developing convection this afternoon, and at least a localized severe threat, primarily driven by wind, will exist. This threat will persist into the evening hours when the front pushes through. Hydrologic concerns, particularly given precipitable water values near the top end of climatology and widespread significant rainfall yesterday of 1.5 to 3+ inches, will be at least an equal concern to the severe threat, with flash flood guidance values as low as three quarters of an inch in one hour across central Indiana. HREF probability matched means indicate at least a low chance of reaching these amounts in a few areas through tonight, though perhaps not quite enough for another flood watch. Wednesday through Monday - Once the front has pushed south of the area, it will stall out a bit, though high pressure passing through the Great Lakes in its wake will keep it suppressed to the south and allow for both a brief cooldown and a break in precip chances from late Wednesday into Thursday evening. Rain chances return late week into early next week as a large upper level low swings through the northern tier of the country and pulls a warmer and moist airmass back into the area, though chances with the exception of Friday will be low for the time being given significant model inconsistencies and resulting uncertainty. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 653 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Impacts: - Wind gusts Tuesday 20-27KT - Showers and thunderstorms possible late this afternoon into this evening Discussion: A few showers or isolated storms are present over north central Indiana this morning, which will necessitate some VCSH early in the period. Winds will strengthen as mixing ramps up Tuesday morning, with gusts of 20-27KT likely through the day, generally from 210-230 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible late in the day as a cold front approaches and passes through the area. Winds with frontal passage will veer to westerly and northwesterly late in the period, with gusts ending in typical diurnal fashion this evening. Ceilings post frontal will likely drop into MVFR, though some IFR cannot be entirely ruled out. Later packages will refine this. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ AVIATION...Nield DISCUSSION...Nield  118 FXUS63 KGRB 191053 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 553 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong winds gusts are possible early this morning as scattered thunderstorms move across the area. - Frost or freeze headlines may be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday night. - Warming back up this weekend with returning chances for showers and storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move northeast across east- central and northeast WI early this morning in association with a passing mid-level short-wave and strengthening LLJ. The risk for severe thunderstorms is very low given weak instability, however, any storm may be capable of producing brief wind gusts of 40-50 mph and small hail. On the western back edge of these storms surface obs from SE MN and western WI are showing 40-50 mph wind gusts out of the southeast, indicative of a wake low. As the precipitation erodes to the east expect these stronger wake low winds to make it into central WI over the next few hours. Another round of showers and storms is likely later this mornings as a cold front, currently snaking from far NW WI back toward south- central MN, sweeps across the region. CAMs do show some weak instability (100-300 J/kg) building ahead of the front which could support an isolated stronger thunderstorm, however, the risk for any storms reaching severe limits is low. Behind the front steep low- level lapse rates associated with the CAA regime may spur on isolated showers through this afternoon. Any lingering showers should wane this evening as high pressure starts to build back into the region. The area should remain under the influence of high pressure for the remainder of the week leading to dry conditions. With the high overhead Wednesday night and a dry air mass in place (PWATs ~0.3") lows are forecast to fall near freezing across northern WI which may prompt the need for frost/freeze headlines. The next chance (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms arrives this weekend as southerly return flow delivers warmer and more moist air back to the region. Global ensembles and long range ML products are not highlighting much of severe storm with this system at this point. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 553 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Upstream obs show a blanket of IFR status moving into northwest WI this morning. Expect the IFR cigs to continue spreading east IFR/low- end MVFR conditions expected at most terminals to start the TAF period. Low status should start to scatter out across east-central WI mid-morning due to downsloping northwest winds. Status will likely linger longer across northern and central WI before scattering out this afternoon. A cold front swinging across the region this morning will veer winds around from the southwest to the northwest late this morning with gusts behind the front reaching 15-25kts. Along wind the increasing winds isolated showers are possible along and behind the front, however, the likely hood of a shower passing over a terminal is low so left any precipitation mention out of the TAFs. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......GK  205 FXUS61 KALY 191056 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 656 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... An unseasonable warm and moderate humid air mass across eastern NY and western New England continues today. Heat indices/apparent temps in the mid 90s in the mid Hudson Valley for eastern Ulster and western Dutchess Counties support a Heat Advisory this afternoon. Heat Risk is mainly moderate but some areas in a major category in the Advisory area. Convective threat continues today, though coverage and degree of severe t-storms is uncertain with areas north and west of the Capital District with the greatest risk. Marginal Risk continues from Albany south and east. Damaging winds continue to be the main threat with any severe convection. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well-above normal temps will continue today. There is an increased risk for heat-related illnesses this afternoon with Heat Risk values in the moderate to locally major categories. 2) Isolated-scattered t-storms are expected this afternoon into the early evening with a pre-frontal disturbance and ahead of the cold front, especially for northern areas. Additional t-storms are possible Wed pm, mainly for southern parts of the area. There is marginal to slight risk for storms to be severe today, with damaging winds being the main threat. 3) A return to more seasonable temps is expected Thu-Fri with the next chance for a widespread rainfall on the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Mid and upper level ridging continues to be in place over the East Coast with above normal heights over NY and New England. A south/southwest flow of anomalous warm and moderately humid air continues over the region. H850 temps are mainly +2 to +3 STDEVs above normal over most of the forecasts area. The actual H850 temps will be in the +16C to +19C range according to some of the guidance, which support with some deeper mixing with the sfc to boundary layer southwest flow high temps in the upper 80s to lower and spotty mid 90s in the valleys and upper 70s to mid 80s over the higher terrain. Some records could be tied or broken today for KALB/KGFL and see the Climate section below. Partly to mostly sunny conditions and the southwest flow ahead of prefrontal sfc trough could cause some downsloping off the eastern Catskills/Helderbergs to support temps in the 90-95F range in the Capital District/Hudson River Valley. We did not go quite as warm as the baseline NBM but closer to the prev forecast and the EC/MAV guidance for highs. The southwest flow may actually lower dewpoints into the upper 50s to lower 60s this pm, but still there is enough coverage area with heat indices in the mid 90s for eastern Ulster and western Dutchess Counties that a Heat Advisory was issued from 11 am to 7 pm today. The heat index temps will be similar to actual temps in the afternoon. The hot temps and high or moderate humidity levels may cause heat illnesses and limit time outdoors. Stay cool and hydrated, since this warm spell is early in the Spring. The WPC Heat Risk is mainly in the moderate range (level 2 of 4), but the areas in the Advisory and also spotty areas in the Capital Region and NW CT are in the major range (level 3 of 4). Heat advisories in the ALY forecast area of NYS are issued for heat indices of 95F to 104F. Relief comes overnight into Wed, as the cold front moves through. Locations south of Albany and closer to the I-84 corridor could still experience heat indices in the lower 90s with a moderate heat risk, but an additional Heat Advisory for the mid-Hudson River Valley is not expected at this time. Some heat-related illnesses will still be a concern for the southern extreme on Wed based on a Heat Risk that is moderate (Level 2 of 4). KEY MESSAGE 2... The coverage of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms continue to be somewhat uncertain this afternoon into tonight. SPC continues a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for the southern Dacks, western Mohawk Valley and the Lake George Saratoga Region, and a Marginal Risk for the rest of the forecast area today into tonight. A lake breeze boundary and a pre-frontal sfc trough may initiate some convection in the early to mid pm. The latest HREFs indicate 0-6 km shear of 25-35 KT and mean SBCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg with pockets higher over the forecast area during the afternoon. However, warmer air occurs aloft under the ridge with weak mid level lapses. In fact, the instability decreases with drying in the boundary layer with some CAMS having MLCAPES less than 500 J/kg, while more robust CAMs with higher dewpts have MLCAPEs 500-1000 J/kg. The HRRR and even the 3-km NAMnest have limited convective coverage especially from the Capital Region north and west, while the WRF-ARW2 and the HRW- NSSL CAMs have more coverage with a greater severe threat. The low-level convergence with the sfc trough may aid in some strong to severe convection. Can not rule out a few severe with damaging winds the main threat from bowing segments. If a cluster or small line gets going from mult-cells, then the severe threat could support the Slight Risk better, especially north and west of Albany. The convection that does develop should diminish in the early evening prior to midnight, as the cold front presses forward across the eastern Great Lakes Region. Lows will be muggy in the 60s to lower 70s with some upper 50s over the Adirondack Park. The cold front continues to move across the region Wed late morning into the afternoon. The best chance for some strong to isolate severe thunderstorms continues to be south and east of the Capital Region, where a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) exists. The HREFs and some of the CAMs indicate SBCAPEs could be in the 500-1000 J/kg range with some higher amounts of instability closer to I-84 in Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. The 0-6 km bulk shear increases to 30-40 KT for an organized deep convection threat. Damaging winds and perhaps isolated large hail would be the main threats. Cool and breezy conditions will be occurring north of the convective threat where temps will be falling into the 60s and 70s. Some highs close to 90F are possible near I-84. The showers and thunderstorms should decrease by the late pm/early evening quickly. KEY MESSAGE 3... Strong low-level cold advection continues in the wake of the cold front Wed night with temps falling into the 40s to lower 50s and clearing skies. Lows in the Adirondack Park may fall into the mid and upper 30s. It will be breezy Wed night into Thu with high pressure building in from the Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario for Thu. It will be a much cooler and drier air mass with temps near to slightly below normal, as max temps will be in the mid 60s to around 70F in the valleys and over the hill towns with 50s to lower 60s over the mtns. Diminishing winds and cool temps expected Thu night with lows in the mid 30s to mid/upper 30s. There could be some patchy to localized areas of frost in the southern Dacks/southern Greens. One more dry day at least on Fri with fair weather and some increase of mid and high clouds late the day from I-90 south, as temps will be seasonable and slightly warmer than Thu with 60s to lower 70s. Fri night into the holiday weekend potentially looks unsettled at least on the weekend (Sat-Sun), as a warm front and a wave of low pressure may bring periods of rainfall. The medium range guidance and ensembles still show some uncertainty on the timing and the exact amount of rainfall. Our latest forecast shows 60-80% chances of rainfall Sat into early Sun at this time. Some improvement may come by Memorial Day. The rainfall and cloudy conditions may keep temps near to slightly below normal for the holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z/Wed, mainly VFR conditions are expected with occasional patches of high/mid level clouds. Isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and could briefly impact KGFL/KALB and KPSF between 18Z-23Z/Tue. A brief period of MVFR/IFR Vsbys will be possible within any passing downpours. If any areas receive afternoon/evening downpours, some patchy fog could develop tonight, however overall probability too low to include at this time. South to southwest winds 5-10 KT will become southwest to west and increase to 8-15 KT by afternoon with some gusts up to 25-30 KT. West to southwest winds will then decrease to 5-10 KT after sunset. Low level wind shear is likely through daybreak as surface winds from the south-southwest remain 10 KT or less, while winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the west-southwest to 30-40 KT. Low level wind shear is possible again after 03Z/Wed. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. && .CLIMATE... High Temperature Records: May 19 - Today Albany, NY: 91 degrees set in 1989 Glens Falls, NY: 88 degrees set in 1989 Poughkeepsie, NY: 96 degrees set in 1962 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064-065. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...24 CLIMATE...31/15  230 FXUS62 KRAH 191057 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 657 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * The backdoor front arrival on Thu has trended slower, thus highs have been nudged upward for Thu. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 120 AM Tuesday... 1) Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. 2) Rain chances will return Thu, with daily above-normal chances persisting into early next week. The highest rain coverage and amounts are still expected to be Thu afternoon through Thu night. && .DISCUSSION... As of 120 AM Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. Confidence remains quite high that we'll see continued anomalously hot weather, near-record or record-breaking in some cases, as strong ridging near the surface through the mid levels persists. The latest HREF carries through with what the previous days' LREF indicated, with mid level heights over NC in the 99th percentile through tonight and just a slight reduction to 95th percentile for Wed. And 850 mb temps will sit above the 95th percentile for the date, as low level thicknesses hold around 20 m above normal with deep daily mixing. Highs will continue to be in the low-mid 90s across central NC both Tue and Wed. The deep mixing and resulting drop in afternoon dewpoints into the 50s is what will keep our max heat index values under 100F, however our daily Heat Risk will peak at level 2 of 4 (Moderate), with isolated patches of level 3 of 4 (High), suggesting heat that is unusually intense and which could lead to heat illnesses, especially for those most sensitive to heat. And given the generally light breeze with lots of sunshine each day, the WBGT index will be elevated as well. As such, in addition to frequent water breaks, spending time resting in the shade is encouraged, especially for those working or exercising outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances will return Thu, with daily above- normal chances persisting into early next week. The highest rain coverage and amounts are still expected to be Thu afternoon through Thu night. A potent shortwave trough tracking through eastern Canada and New England Wed/Thu will take a cool high pressure area across the northern Great Lakes and St Lawrence Valley, pushing a backdoor front southward through the Mid Atlantic region. Models have been trending slower with the front's arrival, bringing it into our northern areas early-mid Thu afternoon before pushing the front just S of the CWA early-mid Thu evening. This slowing will allow for warmer prefrontal temps, particularly across the S where the cooler air will be last to arrive. Expect highs from the low-mid 80s near the VA border and Triad to around 90 in the Triangle and low 90s (and isolated mid 90s) in the far S. Given the slower frontal push, expect minimal pops prior to midday Thu, with just slight shower chances Wed evening in the far N. As the mid level ridge breaks down allowing for an increasing mid level southwest flow (although initially still fairly weak), minor perturbations aloft will track from Baja California across the S Plains into the S Appalachians. An increasing low level tap of moisture from both the Gulf and Atlantic will push PW levels above normal, and with increasing isentropic upglide along the southward- moving front, pops are likely to ramp up quickly Thu afternoon, continuing well into the night. Strengthening SW 850 mb flow will force increasing ascent along the front, which could lead to isolated heavy rain totals and propagating cells on the SW side of convection. The overall CAPE and deep layer bulk shear will be on the low end Thu, thus no severe weather is expected, and thunder may be limited to just isolated. By Fri, the surface high to our N will be shifting E off the Northeast coast but still extending down through central and W NC as a damming wedge. While the transitory nature of the parent high should curb the duration of this event, there should still be enough clouds and overrunning flow atop the low level CAA for high surface- based stability with limited insolation, favoring cooler temps, esp over the Piedmont where highs will be held in the low 70s, while SE areas of the CWA along and SE of the wedge front see highs in the mid 80s. As is always the case with even weak or brief wedge events, the greatest temp uncertainty will be either side of the wedge boundary, thus confidence in Fri highs remains low. The wedge should be vulnerable to dissolution by Sat, allow temps to rebound back above normal, although not to early-week heat levels. With a persistent long and wavy SW flow from N Mexico into the Carolinas combined with high low-level moisture flux from the Gulf and Atlantic through the weekend and into early next week, our rain chances are expected to remain above normal, focused on each afternoon and evening Fri through Mon. This would be a welcome respite from our ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 655 AM Tuesday... Some patchy fog, locally dense, has developed across SE parts of central NC early this morning. This includes several sites around KFAY, though KFAY has stayed VFR. Any fog will quickly dissipate over the next hour. Winds will be from the S/SW through the period, around 7-10 kts during the day today and less than 7 kts tonight. A similar setup is expected tonight, and HREF probabilities of reduced visibilities are again in the 40-60% range across the far S and SE. So added a TEMPO group for sub-VFR visibilities at KFAY. Outlook: There is a chance of fog and low stratus on Thursday morning as well. Then scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Thursday surrounding a backdoor cold frontal passage and breezy NE winds. Brief classical CAD will likely bring sub-VFR cigs to all terminals behind the fropa that will likely persist into Friday, especially in the typical CAD regime at INT/GSO and potentially RDU. There is a chance of showers/storms through the weekend with daily MVFR to nightly IFR conditions possible. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022 May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022 May 21: KRDU: 96/1941 KFAY: 99/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022 May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022 May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025 May 23: KFAY: 72/2011 May 24: KGSO: 69/2019 KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000 May 25: KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hartfield AVIATION...Danco/Badgett/AS CLIMATE...RAH  219 FXUS66 KPDT 191056 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 356 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to locally windy Today - Continued dry with a warming trend this week && .DISCUSSION... Later This Afternoon and Evening, breezy gap winds will develop across the Cascades mainly the Eastern Columbia River Gorge and the Kittitas Valley, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph around DLS and ELN, and higher gusts. This is in part to an upper ridge building across the region with increased cross cascade gradients. NBM members indicate about a 30 to 60% chances for wind gusts 40 mph or higher, between about 4 and 8 pm this evening. The next feature is a shortwave modeled to swing southeast through the Northern Rockies of Montana into CO Wednesday Evening, turning winds from light and variable or westerly, to definitively an northeasterly , but still light, on Thursday. Temperatures will still be trending warmer though this period although HeatRisk is still computed in the category1 level. Significant differences or spread is seen in the ensembles and specifically the cluster analysis for the weekend, with respect to the timing and depth /amplitude of an approaching west coast 500 mb trough days 5-7. These patterns do not have significant implications for wind or precipitation other than cluster3 (the flat ridge) being drier than the rest, with at 26% of the member by Monday keeping the mountains zones dry whereas other clusters forecast at least a few hundredths of an inch of light rain in the Columbia Basin and even wetting rains in the Cascade Crest on a 24 hour basis. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Dry, VFR flight category conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period. Gusty winds are anticipated at ELN and DLS due to mountain gap winds developing earlier in the day. PSC and PDT should also have breezy southwest winds. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 72 45 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 72 50 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 77 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 75 47 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 75 48 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 68 43 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 72 37 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 68 40 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 70 38 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 73 49 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...71