167 FXUS63 KDVN 190800 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 300 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A passing cold front this morning will bring about cooler weather through the mid to late week, with increasing rain chances again Thursday night through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Another squall line that generally washes out as it enters and moves acrs the local fcst area this morning, and will account for some lingering patches of post-system stratiform rain and isolated thunder through 9 AM or so. Also some chance for fields of wake low winds gushing out the backside of the decaying precip but appears less extensive than the last two mornings. Seasonably robust cold front lurks upstream acrs central into northeast IA ATTM, with RAP/CAM timing blend having it crossing the MS RVR from 15-16z this morning. Then the story will be blustery post-frontal northwest winds, a stratocu deck, and temps falling into or held well down in the 60s when normal highs for this time of year are generally in the low to mid 70s. Some spotty light showers or sprinkles may get wrung out of the stratocu cloud deck at times today, but overall mainly dry after this morning. Tonight...Clearing and cooler with the arrival of a high pressure system acrs the upper MS RVR Valley. Low temps by Wed morning will look to range from the upper 40s in the southeast, to the low 40s northwest. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday and Thursday...The ridge will look to maintain fair wx acrs the region for Wednesday with some sunshine but below normal temps with 60s during the day and 40s at night. Thursday not the warmest of days as well, with east to northeasterly boundary layer flow back from the ridge complex migrating eastward acrs the GRT LKS. The latest suite of ensembles and upper jet trends suggest longer wave troffiness to establish acrs the Rockies into the late week. As this upper trof tries to pivot northeastward with some moisture return looking to stream up off the western Gulf(but also signs of this feed getting interrupted to the south acrs the southeast plains over to the TN Valley), there may be increasing chance for some showers by late Thu or Thu night. A probable slow down with this process may then target more of a Friday into early Saturday window for precip chances. Friday through Monday...If the above mentioned scenario occurs, Friday may be mostly cloudy and continued cool with shower chances extending into Friday night. A thunderstorm also possible during this timeframe but support for much of any severe threat does not appear to be there heading into the weekend. Some temperature moderation still looks to be on tap over the weekend back to normal or even a bit above normal by the end of the period. Trying to time another passing trof with the next precip chance uncertain at this point but a few favorable ensemble solutions suggest there could be a chance on Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Another night of strong LLVL winds and a linear MCS moving through the TAF sites. After the main line pushes through, behind it more stratiform rain with some embedded thunder and patches of wake low wind fields gusting up to 40-50 KTs out of the backside of the departing precip shield. The main upstream cold front will slip through Tuesday morning from west-to-east with a sfc wind veer to the west and eventually northwest as Tuesday morning progresses. the northwest winds may gust 25-30 KTs. Along and post-frontal there is a substantial field of MVFR stratocu that will move acrs most of the area through evening, before some erosion and clearing occurs Tuesday evening. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...12  336 FXUS63 KFSD 190802 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 302 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pockets of drizzle and isolated showers continue early this morning. Sprinkles are possible this afternoon across soutwestern Minnesota. - Frost and freeze conditions are expected tonight into early Wednesday morning across the area - take precautions to protect sensitive vegetation. Frost/Freeze headlines go into effect late tonight. - Cooler conditions continue this week. Dry weather expected mid week. Another round of storms will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An area of showers/sprinkles is moving south into the James River Valley early this from northeastern SD. Additionally, drizzle has continue to taper off, despite most of the area under low stratus. Stratus continues through the day, with highs only warming into the 50s once again. May see some diurnally driven sprinkles for southwestern MN and adjacent areas of SD and IA today as we have a bit of weak instability in the saturated stratus layer. Other change for the next 24 hours was the issuance of Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories for tonight into early Wednesday morning. Clearing skies with the surface high pressure sliding overhead and light winds late Tuesday through early Wednesday should allow for efficient radiational cooling. We'll also see at least weak CAA at 925mb through the night. We probably won't be as efficient as a couple weeks ago thanks to recent rainfall, but think that temperatures still fall low enough into the 30s to lead to widespread impacts to vegetation. Freeze Warning was limited to the SD side of the US Hwy 14 corridor and into central SD, where confidence is higher in lows falling into the lower 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Early this afternoon the surface to 925 mb front was across southern NE into southern IA. Given the marginal strength of the incoming wave, this boundary should not lift far enough north and west by late afternoon to get into the area. This should limit any wind and tornado threats and keep them off to the southeast. However, some elevated hailers will remain possible across mainly northwest IA as elevated CAPE values ramp up to about 1000-1500 J/KG and deep layer shear is a fairly strong, unidirectional 40-50 knots. This would be lifting a parcel from above the stratus layer, which would likely be in about the 800-750mb layer. The better chances will be from about 5 pm to 9 pm. After this wave pushes the remaining instability out of the area this evening, dry and cool conditions are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. The only concerns on these two days will be the potential for frost and freeze conditions, mostly north of I-90, as surface high pressure is in place. Another weaker wave moves through the area on Wednesday but for now this appears to bring mainly mid level cloud cover. The next better chance for showers and thunderstorms will come Thursday night into Friday night. At this time severe weather looks to remain isolated as model instability fields are hinting at 1000 J/kg CAPE or less for the most part. Once this wave passes a warming trend should move in as flat ridging aloft develops ahead of a deepening low pressure in the Northern Rockies. Saturday should be mild, likely in the 70s, while Sunday sees the better chance to warm into the 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Mainly MVFR to IFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, areas of MVFR to LIFR stratus continue to blanket the area with a few pockets of drizzle. While these conditions will likely persist in the overnight hours, should see gradual improvements from west to east by mid-morning on Tuesday returning things back to VFR conditions. Lastly, breezy northwesterly winds will persist intermittently through Tuesday evening to end the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ050- 054>071. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ038>040- 052-053. MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ071-072- 080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...05  514 FXUS65 KLKN 190805 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 105 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures are trending warmer with highs this afternoon generally in the 60s. * Increasing clouds this afternoon across Elko County, with a 10% chance of thunderstorms up near Jackpot. * Memorial Day Weekend will be warm with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. * Probability of thunderstorms Saturday are trending higher with some models suggesting a 20% chance across Elko county. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1254 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 No changes have been made to the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Quiet weather returns this week as NW flow aloft looks to keep NV dry, allowing for temperatures to warm back into the 80s by the Weekend. Overall weak troughing pattern over the interior Mountain west will keep northwesterly flow aloft over the great basin through next weekend. Monday through Wednesday look to be dry with light to breezy NW winds. Thursday a quick moving upper trough will ride the NW flow, bringing a wind shift line through Nevada, but models keep this system far enough to the NE that only the far NE Elko county could see a 10% chance for a light shower Thursday afternoon, this front will stall across central NV and this may be enough to generate a isolated shower for the mountains of N Nye county Friday. After Friday dry conditions return for the weekend lasting through Memorial Day. The main story this week will be the temperatures as the cold air mass left in the wake of Sundays storm system begins to modify and warm. Highs will start cool in the upper 50s to upper 60s Monday afternoon and warm through the week back into the mid 70s to mid 80s by Friday afternoon. Lows will gradually warm as well starting in the low 20s to low 30s Tuesday morning the rising back into the mid 40s to mid 50s by the Saturday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is moderate confidence for quiet, dry weather conditions with warming temperatures lasting through the Holiday weekend. There is low confidence (5-10% chance) for isolated thunderstorms across NE Elko county both this afternoon and again on Wednesday. Thursday afternoon there is low confidence (10-15% chance) of thunderstorms across Northern Nye and White Pine counties. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected at all TAF terminals today and Wednesday with winds generally 5 to 10 mph gusting to 15 mph each afternoon. KEKO remains AMD NOT SKED due to communication disruption. && .FIRE WEATHER... Light winds of 5 to 10 mph gusting to 15 mph in valleys this afternoon. Expect increasing clouds over FW zones 469 and 470 this afternoon, with a 5-10% chance of dry thunderstorms across the northern portions those two zones (thunderstorm chances this low are not included in the FWF zone forecasts). Looking a little farther out, temperatures will trend warmer through the week. Chances for thunderstorms on Saturday are trending higher in some models, with a 20-25% chance across Elko county in one model. The lightest winds of the week are expected today and Wednesday. Thursday through Sunday afternoon wind gusts are expected to rise into the 15 to 25 mph range. Strongest winds over the next 7 days are expected next Monday where afternoon gusts of 20 to 30 mph are currently forecast. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...96 FIRE WEATHER...96  715 FXUS63 KICT 190808 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 308 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering spotty showers/thunderstorms this morning, but severe weather unlikely. Hit-or-miss shower/storm chances continue tonight over southeast, but severe weather once again unlikely. - Below average temperatures Tuesday through Thursday, warming trend Friday and beyond. - Periodic off-and-on showers/thunderstorms Wednesday evening through the weekend, but especially Wednesday night through Friday night. Widespread severe weather unlikely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: PREDAWN HOURS--THIS MORNING...Line of thunderstorms continues to advance east-southeast, and will exit far southeast KS before sunrise. While isolated pockets of 50-60 mph winds remain possible, widespread severe weather is no longer expected. Further west-northwest in back of this line of storms over portions of central, eastern, and southern Kansas, persistent weak to modest lift in the vicinity of the 850-700mb trough/moist axis should support spotty hit-or-miss showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms through this morning. This activity will likely not be widespread, and marginal instability will prevent strong or severe storms or heavy rain. TONIGHT--EARLY TUESDAY...Should see isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms tonight through early Tuesday over far southeast KS, underneath the right entrance region of the upper jet, and in vicinity of the persistent 850-700mb trough/moist axis. Marginal instability will prevent strong/severe storms or widespread heavy rainfall. WEDNESDAY EVENING--WEEKEND...A train of shortwaves traversing Mid- America will support periodic on-and-off shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday evening through the weekend, but probably most widespread Wednesday night through Friday night. While a few strong storms and pockets of heavy rainfall are possible, marginal instability combined with relatively weak shear and forcing should preclude widespread chances for severe weather and heavy rainfall, although any rainfall will be beneficial given the steadily worsening drought conditions the past month or two. TEMPERATURES: Below average temperatures are likely today through Thursday, as Canadian high pressure exerts its influence on Mid-America, along with periodic cloud cover and precipitation. Daytime highs mostly in the 60s are expected, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. As we head into Friday and beyond, a warming trend back to above average temperatures is expected, as heights/thickness gradually increase over the Heartland. Widespread daytime highs in the 80s are probable by Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A broken line of thunderstorms will continue marching east- southeast across southeast KS overnight, exiting far southeast KS by around 09z. The strongest activity will be capable of quarter size hail, 65 mph winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Lingering instability and lift may support additional hit-or-miss shower/thunderstorm development in back of this line further west-northwest across portions of central and eastern KS through the predawn hours, but confidence is low and coverage should be fairly spotty. These spotty hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms could linger over southeast KS through about midday. Otherwise, mostly MVFR ceilings (with localized IFR ceilings) will persist across the region overnight, gradually turning VFR from west to east during the day Tuesday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ADK  081 FXUS64 KHUN 190811 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 311 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Low to medium chances (20-60%) of showers and thunderstorms return tonight. - Medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms then persist each day from Wednesday through much of the weekend. No severe weather is forecast. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 311 AM Tue May 19 2026 Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with only some bands of mid to high cloud cover passing overhead. An upper trough over the Great Lakes will help to inch a cold front a little closer to the area throughout the day. However, the Tennessee Valley region will still remain under the influence of a broad area of high pressure to the south and east of the area off the coast of the Carolinas. Deep southwesterly flow around the western edge of this ridge will help to advect and maintain a warm, moist air mass (as evidenced by highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the 60s). While some moderate destabilization of the boundary layer will take place by this afternoon, model soundings still show at least a weak cap. Without a lifting mechanism (and some subsidence from the ridge), think the the probability of any convection is extremely low and generally less than 5-10%. Some high clouds may begin to increase late in the day, but still think it will feel quite warm/humid afternoon given the progged highs and the dewpoints. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday Night through Thursday Night) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Southwest flow will persist aloft through late week, with subtle shortwaves rippling along the flow during this time. In addition, the aforementioned surface cold front over the Mississippi River Valley will slowly progress southeast over the Tennessee Valley. This feature looks to then meander over the region for several days (through late week). This overall pattern will keep daily chances (50-90%) of showers and storms in the forecast from midweek into the weekend. To put the wet conditions into perspective, model PWATs generally range between 1.5-1.8 inches through the short term period. When compared with Sounding Climatology from Birmingham, these values are right around to just over the 90th percentile (1.6 inches) for May 20th and 21st. Therefore, showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. With daily rain chances through late week, we'll need to keep an eye on which areas receive rainfall and if it's repetitive, which would increase the localized flood risk. Currently, the Weather Prediction Center has most of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee in a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall and this continues through late week. Remember, if you encounter flooded roads, Turn Around Don't Drown! As for the potential for any severe storms, while instability looks to be sufficient, confidence is low in the development of severe storms due to the continuing trend of low bulk shear values by guidance (especially on Wednesday). The main concerns are more likely to be lightning and localized flooding through Thursday. As for temperatures, the increased rain chances will temper values, resulting in highs only reaching the lower to mid 80s by Thursday. Lows will generally remain in the 60s, due to elevated moisture. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A more summerlike pattern will persist through the Day 4-7 period as 5h ridging builds farther into the southeast U.S. and eastern Gulf of America. Southwesterly flow will persist northwest of the ridge, maintaining a moist flow of air into the Gulf States, particularly in the lower MS Valley where 2.0+ inch PWs will reside. Although, there is a corridor of slightly lower values in the 1.5-1.8 inch range over AL into eastern and middle TN, with higher values farther east across the FL peninsula through GA and the Carolinas. Multiple weak impulses will lift northeast through this period, with medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms each day (diurnally inflated due to heating). High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s, with lows in the 60s. Dew points will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the period. After sunrise, winds will become gusty out of the SSW between 15-20 kts. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP.24 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...AMP  230 FXUS61 KCLE 190812 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 412 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slowed down the timing of thunderstorms for this afternoon with the main window for stronger storms between 5 PM in the west and 10 PM in the east. Lowered high temperatures across the north by a couple degrees behind the front on Wednesday. Chances of a widespread rain continue to increase for Friday and Friday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid conditions continue today with showers and thunderstorms expected late this afternoon into tonight. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather (Level 2 of 5) with thunderstorms today with scattered pockets of damaging winds the main hazard. 2) Much cooler air will arrive behind a cold front for Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be 20-30 degrees cooler than Tuesday. 3) Widespread rain is expected Friday afternoon and night with unsettled conditions continuing into the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure is located over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan early this morning and is forecast to continue northeast today. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across Wisconsin and western Illinois but are expected weaken through early morning as they continue to move eastward. Meanwhile the local area is located in the warm sector with high temperatures forecast to reach the upper 80s again this afternoon and dewpoints gradually creeping upward into the mid 60s by this afternoon. This will result in slightly more humid conditions than Monday but with fairly similar heat index values near 90 degrees. Instability ahead of the eastward moving trough is expected to weaken through early this morning then start to build across eastern Indiana and Ohio for the afternoon. ML CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are expected in NW Ohio with closer to 1200 J/kg in the east. A shortwave moves through the Upper Great Lakes late this afternoon and a pre-frontal surface trough advances into NW Ohio and is expected to serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms. While a stray shower is possible earlier in the day, the main area of activity is expected to develop towards 5 PM near Toledo and spread eastward through the evening. High level cloud may outpace the better forcing but as we get towards evening that may not be as significant. Overall expecting a corridor of 20-30 knots of 0-6km shear which could support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazard but can not rule out a few reports of hail or an isolated tornado, mainly if surface winds back sufficiently ahead of the trough. Locally heavy rain is also expected with thunderstorms tonight with pockets of 0.50" to 1.25" as storm motion may be parallel to the flow aloft. KEY MESSAGE 2... The above mentioned cold front will extend from roughly Youngstown to Marion by Wednesday morning, quickly pushing south of the area. High temperatures in the south will occur early in the morning with falling temperatures while locations along the I-75 corridor may be able to achieve some late afternoon warming. With that said, lowered high temperatures from Lorain to Cleveland to Erie where highs may not reach 60 degrees with flow off the lake. Overall highs temperatures on Wednesday will range from 20-28 degrees cooler than what was experienced on Tuesday. Showers will be limited to the far south by afternoon with diminishing trends. Any clearing is likely to be late in the day. The cool airmass will remain for Thursday with a brisk wind off Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 3... Long range models are coming into better agreement late this week. An upper level trough will move east of the Rocky Mountains with shortwave energy lifting north through the Ohio Valley. Moisture streaming north results in overrunning across Ohio which expands into northern Ohio during the afternoon and evening on Friday. This is expected to be a healthy push of rain as the warm front lifts north into Saturday. Temperatures on Friday will still be cooler in the 60s, before hopefully trending warmer into the 70s on Saturday. The QPF forecast from Friday through Saturday ranges from three quarters of an inch to an inch and a half. The rain may become more intermittent by Saturday afternoon but scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible into Sunday. Although timing varies between models, eventually the trough will lift northeast through the Great Lakes Region with drier air arriving from the west and reducing potential for showers and storms in the late Sunday-Monday time frame. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... VFR conditions early this morning. The main focus of the TAFs remains shower/thunderstorm potential. A few showers are possible between about 11-18z from west to east. Activity should be fairly sparse and restrictions would be brief and limited, so at the moment only included VCSH. Attention then turns to thunderstorms that are likely to develop late this afternoon and spread east across the area through this evening ahead of a cold front. There is some amount of uncertainty with the timing and placement of these storms if earlier activity ends up more robust than expected. The current TAFs assume that earlier activity won't be too detrimental to the main thunderstorm threat this evening, and has TS included at all sites with TEMPOs for more significant restrictions and wind gusts with thunderstorms. Showers likely linger into tonight as the cold front pushes into the area, though convective potential should decrease by late this evening. MVFR ceilings are likely behind the cold front, which begins getting into the TAFs at TOL/CLE. South-southwest winds of 6-12kt will continue through early this morning. Have low-level wind shear in at several locations given a 40-45kt southwesterly low-level jet and poor low-level mixing. Winds increase to 10-20kt with gusts 25-30kt later this morning and this afternoon as low-level wind shear ends. Some thunderstorms late today into tonight may be severe with isolated peak gusts over 50kt possible with any severe storms. Outlook...Non-VFR continues into Wednesday in lower ceilings and possibly rain showers. Non-VFR possible in showers Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... South-southwest winds continue until a cold front crosses the lake overnight tonight. Winds will generally be in the 10-20kt range, with gusts in the nearshore waters of 25-30kt likely this afternoon. Will go with a Small Craft Advisory from Cuyahoga County points west where winds will be gustiest...not quite as gusty farther east, though still on the breezy side. Waves of 1-3 feet in the nearshore will increase to 2-4 feet in the open waters today. Thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late this afternoon and evening may produce strong wind gusts over 35kt and locally up to 50kt over the lake. Winds whip around to the north-northeast late tonight into Wednesday at 10-17kt behind the cold front, keeping 1-3 foot waves going. Winds increase to 15-20kt and gradually turn more northeasterly into Thursday and easterly into Friday as strong high pressure passes north and northeast of the lake. East-northeast winds often perform well in these types of setups and have continued to inch up in the forecast, and a period of small craft/beach hazards headlines is looking increasingly likely for at least some of the nearshore waters late this week. && .CLIMATE... A record high temperature occurred at Erie, Pennsylvania on Monday. High temperatures today will approach record values at some locations again. The following are the records for May 19. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Sullivan  306 FXUS61 KCLE 190813 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 413 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slowed down the timing of thunderstorms for this afternoon with the main window for stronger storms between 5 PM in the west and 10 PM in the east. Lowered high temperatures across the north by a couple degrees behind the front on Wednesday. Chances of a widespread rain continue to increase for Friday and Friday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid conditions continue today with showers and thunderstorms expected late this afternoon into tonight. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather (Level 2 of 5) with thunderstorms today with scattered pockets of damaging winds the main hazard. 2) Much cooler air will arrive behind a cold front for Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be 20-30 degrees cooler than Tuesday. 3) Widespread rain is expected Friday afternoon and night with unsettled conditions continuing into the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure is located over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan early this morning and is forecast to continue northeast today. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across Wisconsin and western Illinois but are expected weaken through early morning as they continue to move eastward. Meanwhile the local area is located in the warm sector with high temperatures forecast to reach the upper 80s again this afternoon and dewpoints gradually creeping upward into the mid 60s by this afternoon. This will result in slightly more humid conditions than Monday but with fairly similar heat index values near 90 degrees. Instability ahead of the eastward moving trough is expected to weaken through early this morning then start to build across eastern Indiana and Ohio for the afternoon. ML CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are expected in NW Ohio with closer to 1200 J/kg in the east. A shortwave moves through the Upper Great Lakes late this afternoon and a pre-frontal surface trough advances into NW Ohio and is expected to serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms. While a stray shower is possible earlier in the day, the main area of activity is expected to develop towards 5 PM near Toledo and spread eastward through the evening. High level cloud may outpace the better forcing but as we get towards evening that may not be as significant. Overall expecting a corridor of 20-30 knots of 0-6km shear which could support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazard but can not rule out a few reports of hail or an isolated tornado, mainly if surface winds back sufficiently ahead of the trough. Locally heavy rain is also expected with thunderstorms tonight with pockets of 0.50" to 1.25" as storm motion may be parallel to the flow aloft. KEY MESSAGE 2... The above mentioned cold front will extend from roughly Youngstown to Marion by Wednesday morning, quickly pushing south of the area. High temperatures in the south will occur early in the morning with falling temperatures while locations along the I-75 corridor may be able to achieve some late afternoon warming. With that said, lowered high temperatures from Lorain to Cleveland to Erie where highs may not reach 60 degrees with flow off the lake. Overall highs temperatures on Wednesday will range from 20-28 degrees cooler than what was experienced on Tuesday. Showers will be limited to the far south by afternoon with diminishing trends. Any clearing is likely to be late in the day. The cool airmass will remain for Thursday with a brisk wind off Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 3... Long range models are coming into better agreement late this week. An upper level trough will move east of the Rocky Mountains with shortwave energy lifting north through the Ohio Valley. Moisture streaming north results in overrunning across Ohio which expands into northern Ohio during the afternoon and evening on Friday. This is expected to be a healthy push of rain as the warm front lifts north into Saturday. Temperatures on Friday will still be cooler in the 60s, before hopefully trending warmer into the 70s on Saturday. The QPF forecast from Friday through Saturday ranges from three quarters of an inch to an inch and a half. The rain may become more intermittent by Saturday afternoon but scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible into Sunday. Although timing varies between models, eventually the trough will lift northeast through the Great Lakes Region with drier air arriving from the west and reducing potential for showers and storms in the late Sunday-Monday time frame. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... VFR conditions early this morning. The main focus of the TAFs remains shower/thunderstorm potential. A few showers are possible between about 11-18z from west to east. Activity should be fairly sparse and restrictions would be brief and limited, so at the moment only included VCSH. Attention then turns to thunderstorms that are likely to develop late this afternoon and spread east across the area through this evening ahead of a cold front. There is some amount of uncertainty with the timing and placement of these storms if earlier activity ends up more robust than expected. The current TAFs assume that earlier activity won't be too detrimental to the main thunderstorm threat this evening, and has TS included at all sites with TEMPOs for more significant restrictions and wind gusts with thunderstorms. Showers likely linger into tonight as the cold front pushes into the area, though convective potential should decrease by late this evening. MVFR ceilings are likely behind the cold front, which begins getting into the TAFs at TOL/CLE. South-southwest winds of 6-12kt will continue through early this morning. Have low-level wind shear in at several locations given a 40-45kt southwesterly low-level jet and poor low-level mixing. Winds increase to 10-20kt with gusts 25-30kt later this morning and this afternoon as low-level wind shear ends. Some thunderstorms late today into tonight may be severe with isolated peak gusts over 50kt possible with any severe storms. Outlook...Non-VFR continues into Wednesday in lower ceilings and possibly rain showers. Non-VFR possible in showers Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... South-southwest winds continue until a cold front crosses the lake overnight tonight. Winds will generally be in the 10-20kt range, with gusts in the nearshore waters of 25-30kt likely this afternoon. Will go with a Small Craft Advisory from Erie County OH points west where winds will be gustiest...not quite as gusty farther east, though still on the breezy side. Waves of 1-3 feet in the nearshore will increase to 2-4 feet in the open waters today. Thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late this afternoon and evening may produce strong wind gusts over 35kt and locally up to 50kt over the lake. Winds whip around to the north- northeast late tonight into Wednesday at 10-17kt behind the cold front, keeping 1-3 foot waves going. Winds increase to 15-20kt and gradually turn more northeasterly into Thursday and easterly into Friday as strong high pressure passes north and northeast of the lake. East-northeast winds often perform well in these types of setups and have continued to inch up in the forecast, and a period of small craft/beach hazards headlines is looking increasingly likely for at least some of the nearshore waters late this week. && .CLIMATE... A record high temperature occurred at Erie, Pennsylvania on Monday. High temperatures today will approach record values at some locations again. The following are the records for May 19. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Sullivan  466 FXUS64 KJAN 190815 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 315 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are possible over the western half of the area this evening. - Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances this week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through tonight: Another warm and humid day is on tap for the CWA but by this evening severe storms will be possible over our western zones and spread east into central Mississippi before weakening. As compared to yesterday, the "Marginal Risk" for severe storms has been expended eastward. Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave trough over the northern Plains and extending up into Canada. This shortwave trough will swing east through the period and its accompanying surface low will drag a cold front toward our CWA. As our winds aloft will remain southwesterly, the cold front will lose its upper level support and stall across the northwest portions of our CWA later tonight. Latest surface analysis still had a ridge nosing west across the Gulf coast states. This ridge will help maintain our moist airmass with PWATs around an inch and three quarters along with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Daytime heating of our moist airmass will lead to a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but these storms should remain subsevere. More intense convection is expected to our west along and just ahead of the approaching cold front. These storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail as they move into our extreme western zones by early evening. The severe potential will become less the further into our CWA they progress and current thinking is that the severe potential will end close to midnight over central Mississippi before spreading into east Mississippi. Rainfall with this system is expected to be beneficial with the greatest amounts along and northwest of the Natchez Trace. Temperatures today are forecast in the lower 90s again but record highs are in the mid 90s. /22/ Wednesday through Monday: A frontal boundary will continue to progress towards the southeast before stalling north of the CWA. Ongoing showers and storm chances are expected through the extended period. Highs (ranging in the 80s) will remain near seasonal averages and lows (upper 60s/near 70 degrees) will run +10 degrees above seasonal averages over the extended as well. As the boundary stalls, multiple shortwave disturbances are expected to traverse the region, providing addition moisture and widespread rainfall chances Wednesday, lasting through the weekend. Increasing rain chances will begin Thursday, reaching 95% on Friday and up to 90% Saturday and Sunday. Organized severe weather is not anticipated as instability won't be as favorable, however, an isolated severe storm or two may be possible each day. Estimate rainfall amounts may range from 1.0-3.5 inches over the course of this week and the weekend. Received rainfall will help alleviate the ongoing drought over the ArkLaMiss region. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Latest satellite imagery showed an area of stratus over the southeast that wl result in MVFR/IFR cigs across the south and cntrl TAF sites as it expands through 12Z. These lower flight conditions wl improve to VFR by 16Z. After 16Z VFR conditions wl prevail areawide until SHRA/TSRA move into the nw and spread over the cntrl TAF sites toward the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 89 71 86 69 / 30 60 70 50 Meridian 90 70 88 68 / 10 20 30 30 Vicksburg 90 71 85 69 / 30 70 70 70 Hattiesburg 89 70 89 68 / 10 10 40 20 Natchez 90 72 86 70 / 40 60 60 60 Greenville 91 71 84 68 / 40 80 80 70 Greenwood 91 71 85 69 / 30 70 80 60 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/SW/22  617 FXUS65 KCYS 190819 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 219 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near record cold Monday and Monday night will lead to widespread freezing temperatures, which may damage sensitive vegetation and outdoor irrigation systems. - Slow warming trend by the mid to late week with temperatures near normal by Thursday and Friday. Numerous showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms each day, but mostly Thursday and Friday. - Above average temperatures and pleasant weather expected for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 215 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Relatively quiet early this morning after an eventful Sunday and Monday. Additional storm total snow amounts are trickling in and there are some impressive totals across the mountains and adjacent valleys. Several reports of 12 to 18 inches from south of Rawlins over towards Rock River. The Snowy Range lived up to its name during this event with a few SNOTEL sites reporting over 3 feet of snow and nearly 3 inches of SWE! Accumulating snow has ended across the area with only a few flurries detected on radar. Main forecast concern today and tonight will be the very cold temperatures. Current observations across the area show temperatures in the middle 20s to low 30s. Portions of the area have struggling with cloud cover and/or gusty winds, but both are expected to subside over the next several hours. Kept low temperatures as is with Freeze Warnings in effect. There is also the potential for fog, but it shouldn't be widespread under CAA. Another round of freezing or near- freezing temperatures expected tonight, mainly west of the I-25 corridor. Kept the Freeze Watch in effect to see how this morning's Freeze Warnings do before upgrading. Otherwise, another chilly day Tuesday, but not as cold as yesterday with highs in the 40s to middle 50s for southeast Wyoming, but not as cold across western Nebraska with highs 55 to 60. May see a few lingering snow flurries or sprinkles today near the Colorado border and in the mountains. Slight warming trend for Wednesday and Thursday, but northwest flow aloft will continue...so temperatures during the afternoon will struggle to reach the 50s west of I-25, and 60 for areas east of I-25. Instability will still be present in this pattern, and models tend to underestimate daytime convection. Kept 20 to 40 percent POP for Wednesday with scattered rain showers and isolated thunder expected, mainly where it's warmest along and west of I-25. Some snowpack may remain over Carbon and Albany counties...even on Thursday...which will greatly decrease potential for convection. Even Thursday morning, low temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s are expected over the high valleys of Carbon and Albany counties. Later on Thursday, models show a potent clipper system out of Alberta Canada digging south into Wyoming and slowing down. Will have to monitor this system for additional mountain snowfall, but expect most of the lower elevations to stay as rainfall. Good forcing with this clipper with another shot of cooler air. Daytime instability will aid in shower and thunderstorm development with CAPE values between 400 to 800 j/kg. Could see some decent rainfall amounts into Friday. Increased POP above 60 percent for most of the area with the likelihood of multiple rounds of showers moving through the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A secondary vorticity maximum will propagate across our region on Friday, combined with PWAT near the 60th percentile, resulting in another chance for a few showers and thunderstorms with little change in high temperatures from the previous day given the cloud cover. Into the weekend, 500 mb heights rise as weak longwave ridging establishes itself across the Rocky Mountain West, resulting in a warming trend and mostly dry conditions. High temperatures are expected to be near climatology (average high in Cheyenne on May 23 is 67 degrees), with 60s west of the I-25 corridor and 70s further east. The warm up will continue Sunday into Monday as the ridge axis shifts over Wyoming, resulting in above-average temperatures and little to no chances of precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1122 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Rain/snow activity will be coming to an end across all the terminals over the next hour or so. With the added moisture we've seen across southeast Wyoming coupled with winds becoming light and variable, BR and/or FG may develop and impact KRWL, KLAR, and KCYS with VIS 1SM or less and CIGs down to 500 feet, possibly lower at times. After about 15z, CIGs and VIS will improve for the aforementioned terminals. For the Nebraska Panhandle sites, CIGs will lift overnight with winds generally staying variable to around 6 knots. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for WYZ101-102- 106>108-113-115>119. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for WYZ101-115. Freeze Warning until noon MDT today for WYZ104-105-109>111. Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for WYZ104-105-109>111-113-116. NE...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for NEZ002-003- 019>021-054-055-095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...NB AVIATION...RZ  691 FXUS63 KTOP 190820 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 320 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cooler airmass keeps highs in the 60s through Thursday as modified Canadian air settles across the area. - Next precipitation chance arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday as a western trough lifts through, but severe weather is not expected given limited instability and quality moisture return. - Temperatures warm through the holiday weekend with highs returning to the 70s and 80s by Saturday into Memorial Day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front pushed through the area overnight, leaving anafrontal showers across eastern portions of the CWA early this morning. Modified Canadian high pressure builds in through the day, bringing drier conditions and a reinforced cool airmass with highs only reaching the mid to upper 60s today through Thursday. The next forecast challenge arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday as a mid-level trough emerges from the Rockies and lifts northeast across the region. Moisture return remains limited ahead of this system, with surface dewpoints struggling to recover into the lower 50s. Instability is expected to be minimal as a result, keeping severe weather probability low with low QPF amounts expected. A warming trend takes hold heading into the holiday weekend as the pattern becomes more amplified and southerly flow returns. Highs climb into the upper 70s by Saturday with lower 80s possible by Memorial Day. Increasing moisture return may bring additional precipitation chances late in the extended period, though confidence remains limited with spread widening amongst the ENS, GEFS and GEPS solutions at this range. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A few rumbles of thunder possible to begin the period at KTOP/KFOE as the cold front continues to push through. A brief period of IFR conditions for part of the overnight period at all terminals then cigs improve to marginal VFR and last into midday before lifting to VFR by mid to late afternoon. A steady breeze should remain from the north through the day before calming into the evening. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-KSZ020-KSZ034. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Drake  824 FXUS61 KCTP 190824 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 424 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increasing odds for a noticeably cooler and rather wet start to Memorial Day weekend && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike heat wave peaks today with record challenging temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s 2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across north central PA later today/tonight and south central PA Wednesday afternoon 3) Major cooldown arrives Thursday and lasts into Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall likely Friday and Saturday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Summerlike heat wave peaks today with record challenging temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s Another scorcher today with max temps 85-95F approaching daily records (see climate section). Max heat indices are fcst to reach the upper 90s or just shy of heat advy criteria across the LSV. Record hi minimum temps are also on the table today and Wednesday. -------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across north central PA later today/tonight and south central PA Wednesday afternoon Moist and unstable pre-frontal airmass will be supportive of widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon through the evening. However, marginal deep layer shear values suggest the primary severe risk is probably later tonight over the NW/NC mtns ahead of the sfc cold front crossing Lake Erie. Convective focus shifts to south central PA on Wednesday with narrow plume of weak to moderate CAPE fcst ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Steep low level lapse rates may support a few instances of strong to severe winds. The magnitude & location of the severe threat will be highly dependent on CFROPA timing and amount of cloud cover. SPC MRGL risk (level 1/5) covers the southeast half of the CWA where max temps are fcst btwn 80-90F. ----------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Major cooldown arrives Thursday and lasts into Memorial Day weekend with widespread soaking rainfall likely Friday and Saturday Relief from the early season heat wave arrives in earnest on Thursday with max temps 20-30 degrees lower vs. Wednesday across the southeast half of the forecast area. Strong high pressure slides from the Lower Great Lakes to off the New England coast to close out the week. Model data shows the high channeling southward down the east-side of the Appalachians, setting up a cold air damming type event heading into Memorial Day weekend. We may not be bearish enough on daytime temperatures. It also appears probable that periods of soaking rain will dampen at least the start of the holiday weekend. WPC 48hr QPF amounts are quite wet with a widespread 1-2.5 inches fcst from 12Z Friday to 12Z Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Prevailing VFR is favored through the 06Z TAF period, with the main exception being visibility restrictions in any heavier showers/thunderstorms that develop. A decaying shortwave moving across the Ohio Valley may initiate additional spotty showers/thunderstorms over Central PA overnight; nonetheless,a lull in convection is expected as forcing lessens through the morning. Otherwise, marginal LLWS is expected to continue through sunrise as surface winds have diminished in the evening while winds approach 40 kts within the lowest 2000 ft. Chances for spotty showers/thunderstorms will pick up again Tuesday afternoon and evening, primarily between 16Z-00Z, as weak shortwaves move around the periphery of a Western Atlantic ridge. Like yesterday, gusty winds may accompany these spotty showers/storms given the moderately unstable airmass (HREF mean SBCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates (>8 C/km) in place. Most convection will diminish after 00Z Wednesday with the loss of daytime heating, though some models are hinting at an MCS from the Ohio Valley holding together until reaching KBFD around 03Z-06Z Wednesday, potentially bringing gusty winds and visibility restrictions. MCS timing/impacts will be sensitive to how it evolves across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon & evening, with TAF mentions not included at this time given high model variability. Outlook... Wed...Restrictions probable through Wednesday night with widespread showers/storms along CFROPA. Thu...Lingering showers across S PA, restrictions possible. Fri...Restrictions likely with rain moving in from south to north, lasting into Fri night. Sat...Restrictions likely with rain. && .CLIMATE... The following climate sites across central Pennsylvania set new daily high temperature records for May 18th: * A record high temperature of 92 degrees was set in Altoona, breaking the previous record of 91 degrees initially set back in 1962. This record was tied two times previously, back in 1996 and 2017. * A record high temperature of 86 degrees was set in Bradford, breaking the previous record of 85 degrees set back in 1962. ** Note: The high temperature for State College will be reported around 7AM on 5/19. This is due to the State College CO-OP observations running 7AM-7AM. Thus, today's (5/18) high temperature will be reported in tomorrow's (5/19) observation. This record, for reference, is 92 degrees set in 1962. --------------------------------------------- Abnormally warm temperatures will continue on May 19th, thus multiple sites could challenge daily record high temperatures. Daily Maximum High Temperatures for May 19th: * Harrisburg: 95F set in 1962 * Williamsport: 96F in in 1996 * Altoona: 92F set in 1996 * Bradford: 85F set in 1962 * State College: 92F set in 1934, tied in 1996. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Teare CLIMATE...Beaty  855 FXUS63 KGLD 190825 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 225 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A short period of frost is possible around sunrise this morning, mainly in northeast CO (Yuma/Kit Carson counties) where temperatures may briefly fall into the mid 30's. - Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week, perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 220 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Frost Advisory: In the advisory area, a short period of frost is possible an hour or two on either side of sunrise this morning.. when pervasive low ceilings (1500-2500 ft AGL at 0630Z) will begin to lift/scatter. Observational trends suggest that Yuma/Dundy counties are most at-risk. Low confidence in frost development south of Hwy 36 where breezy (15-20 mph) north winds are more likely to persist through sunrise. Today: ~1025 mb surface high pressure in Wyoming at 06Z will build ESE over central Nebraska and north-central Kansas today. Expect decreasing cloud cover by sunrise and mostly clear skies by late morning as northerly low-level flow advects a drier airmass southward into the Tri-State Area. Winds will decrease to 5-10 mph by late morning to early afternoon (~16-19Z).. in concert with a weakening MSLP-850 mb height gradient. Clear skies / unimpeded insolation will foster a warming trend with highs ranging from the upper 50's to upper 60's. Tonight: Light N winds will shift to the E (this evening) and SE (early Wed morning) as the surface high over central Nebraska and north-central Kansas progresses slowly E toward northwest Missouri/western Iowa.. leading to modest low-level moisture return (850 mb dewpoints rising from -3 to 3C) by sunrise in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties. Strengthening mid- level (700-500 mb) warm advection in advance of an upper level wave.. a modest 250-350 mb trough / shear-axis progressing eastward from the 4-Corners to the central Rockies.. will foster increasing mid-level cloud cover (ceilings at/above ~7,000 ft AGL) this evening and overnight. Despite a modest increase in low-level moisture and an increasingly upslope component to low- level flow in eastern CO, guidance suggests that weak/neutral low-level thermal advection will be insufficient for low stratus development, and that.. mid-level warm advection, in of itself, will likely be insufficient to produce measurable precipitation (i.e. anything beyond virga/sprinkles) prior to sunrise. Expect overnight (Wed morning) lows in the upper 30's to lower 40's. Wednesday: Showers are possible over portions of the area, mainly west and north of Goodland during the late morning and early afternoon when/where mid-level warm advection will be strongest; enough to capitalize on/utilize modest elevated instability (~100-250 J/kg MUCAPE). Expect broken/overcast cloud cover over most or all of the area and ~10-20 mph SE winds with highs in the upper 50's to mid 60's. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Thursday will see a stronger disturbance move out of the northern Rockies into western Colorado by the afternoon, then moving across the area Thursday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase once again. Instability will be limited by cloud cover, and models showing only weak SBCAPE of around 500 j/kg in the afternoon, mainly in Colorado. Deep layer shear will increase to 30-50 kts by 00z and may compensate somewhat for the weak instability in Colorado, where a marginally severe storm may be possible through the early evening before loss of heating. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through Thursday night as the upper wave makes its way across the area. Additional rainfall amounts Thursday night are generally between 0.25" - 0.50", though locally higher amounts over 1" are possible. Temperatures on Thursday could remain in the 50s, especially north of Interstate 70, where clouds persist through the day, with perhaps 60s further south or west with limited clearing. Friday, our region is forecast to be under a weak southwest flow with a weak trough west of the Rocky Mountains. There is also a surface low forecast to set up somewhere in southwest Kansas. Ensembles do not fully align on the placement of this surface low. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to low 70s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue throughout the day as embedded shortwaves pass through the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are 30-60% increasing from southwest to northeast. The environment is forecast to be moderately unstable with CAPE values generally between 500-1000 J/kg for the region. However, lingering cloud cover will likely keep the environment capped, reducing the risk for severe weather. If thunderstorms are able to form, small hail could occur with stronger storms. Skies will clear out Saturday and begin a slight warming trend through the beginning of the work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s for Saturday and the 80s for Sunday and Monday. Saturday will have a 25% chance for showers and thunderstorms for the southeast county warning area (CWA) from weak shortwave passages. After Sunday, we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect primarily sunny skies and gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoons for our Colorado counties. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR ceilings are anticipated to lift/scatter to VFR by sunrise (~10-12Z). VFR conditions are expected to prevail thereafter, through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period. N winds at ~12-18 knots with gusts up to ~25 knots will persist through sunrise, then decrease to ~8-13 knots during the late morning (~16-18Z) and 5-10 knots during the afternoon. Light winds will veer to the E and SE after sunset, near the end of the 06Z TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092. NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for NEZ079-080. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...024/Rhoades AVIATION...Vincent  963 FXUS63 KILX 190827 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 327 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weakening line of storms will move through central Illinois this morning, bringing a low (less than 15% chance) risk of damaging winds or hail. - Additional storms may develop near Interstate 70 around midday, threatening the area with damaging winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall. - Saturated ground from recent heavy rains creates a lingering flash flood risk near Interstate 70, though the chance of exceeding flooding rainfall rates is low (20% or less). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Remnants of a linear MCS persist over west-central Illinois early this morning. While the activity has generally remained sub-severe, the mesoscale environment remains capable of producing occasional damaging wind gusts. Sustenance of the current ragged convective line is being supported by approximately 30-35 kts of effective layer shear, driven by a 50-60 kt low-level jet (LLJ) core veering in ahead of the system. Thermodynamic profiles ahead of the line are characterized by modest MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, supported by favorable mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km, suggesting that isolated large hail cannot be entirely discounted. The potential for localized downbursts remains a focus as DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg combined with localized evaporative cooling and mid-level dry air could occasionally breach the morning inversion. Conversely, the tornado risk is considered minimal due to marginal low- level shear and an unfavorable storm-relative vector orientation. Nevertheless, convection should continue through the late morning as it nears the I-55 corridor, though it is expected to weaken as the primary mid-level shortwave moves north of I-80 and the LLJ recedes. Regarding precipitation, rainfall rates have remained modest. MRMS data indicates one-hour rates generally at or below one inch, a trend supported by high-resolution guidance as the line continues its gradual decay through the morning hours. Convective redevelopment is expected to remain suppressed north of Interstate 72 for the rest of the day, consistent with the stabilization caused by this morning’s convective debris. The area near and south of I-70 presents the main concern for later today due to a higher potential for destabilization. Morning convective outflows are not expected to reach this southern region until approximately Noon (17z). HREF data indicates about 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE in this vicinity, which, when combined with a subtle mid-level shortwave, could increase effective-layer shear to near 30 kts. These conditions may briefly reinvigorate convective outflows, potentially resulting in damaging winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall. A heavy rainfall potential is particularly concerning given the wet antecedent conditions, with recent observations of 3-4 inches of rain across portions of Effingham, Clay, and Jasper counties. Flash flood guidance indicates that rainfall exceeding 1.25 inches per hour today could trigger widespread flooding. While current HREF guidance suggests a low probability (20% or less) of reaching these rates, the risk remains a focal point due to the saturated ground. Scattered showers may linger across southeast Illinois through Wednesday morning, with increased baroclinicity/frontogenesis behind the departed cold front. Rainfall amounts would be light should this occur, and the chances will be fleeting as a drier, cooler continental air mass settles over the Midwest. Precipitation is expected to return by Friday following a brief period of seasonably cool conditions. As surface high pressure shifts to the east, a robust mid-level shortwave is forecast to track into the central United States. This pattern, characterized by a steady stream of Gulf moisture and a series of minor impulses originating from the Southern Plains, will keep central Illinois susceptible to multiple rounds of scattered showers. While weak kinematic profiles should largely mitigate the risk of severe weather, a gradual increase in instability over the weekend may support the development of scattered thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A line of thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front will move into the western central IL terminals KPIA, KSPI, and KBMI from 08Z-12Z, although these storms are expected to be in a weakening state and likely will not maintain as they head into KDEC and KCMI toward east-central IL. Have included TEMPO for TSRA at the western terminals between 08Z and 12Z, but only VCSH and PROB30 for SHRA at the eastern terminals 15Z-19Z. However, redevelopment of storms may begin during the afternoon at the eastern sites with diurnal heating, and have included PROB30 for TSRA 19Z-24Z. MVFR cigs or briefly worse can be expected with TSRA, and an area of MVFR cigs is expected to trail the cold front, arriving at KPIA around 16Z and KDEC-KCMI around 19Z. Low level wind shear will affect the terminals the next several hours due to 45-50 kt winds at 2000 ft AGL. Surface winds SSE 10-18 kts with a few higher gusts overnight, shifting to SSW after 11Z-13Z, then continuing to veer toward NW with gusts increasing to 20-25 kts through the day as the cold front moves through. Winds decreasing after 00Z-02Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...37  534 FXUS64 KCRP 190837 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 337 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 317 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storm tonight into Wednesday morning - Medium to high shower and thunderstorm chances tonight through next Monday. Additional total rainfall between 3.0-5.0". - Dangerous swimming conditions with a moderate to high risk of rip currents along the Middle Texas Coast through this week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 As of writing this, we're dealing with a cluster of strong storms in a bowing segment across the Brush Country into the Coastal Plains. Damaging winds is the primary threat, followed by small hail mixing in. This will likely reach the coast at about 09Z (4AM). We'll have to keep a close eye on the RIJ on velocity data. Nevertheless, this rain will prime the soils for additional heavy rain later this week and pose a higher threat for flash flooding but more efficient runoff. A cold front will move into North Texas through the day today, likely developing a line of strong showers and thunderstorms along it that is forecast to propagate down into South Texas late tonight. This line will pose another marginal risk of severe storms, with damaging winds and large hail the primary threat. Following tonight's storms, there will be a lull in rain activity into the day Wednesday but additional rounds of medium to high rain chances will continue through this upcoming weekend and even into early next week due to a series of mid-level disturbances interacting with near climatological max moisture. Not including this morning's rainfall, total rainfall tonight through next Monday, ranges from 3.00" along the coast to around 5.00" along our northern counties from La Salle to Victoria. High end (10%) rainfall totals range from 4.50-6.00". There will be a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding through much of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR ceilings dominate across South Texas, with exception of COT/LRD as past strong storms have now improved conditions to VFR. Heavy thunderstorms should move out of South Texas within the next 2-3 hours. MVFR ceilings are projected to move back over the area later this morning but these cluster of storms may put a wrench in the ceilings forecast. Outside of strong 30-40 knots within thunderstorms, winds will be primarily southeast at 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots today. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Strong thunderstorms with wind gusts over 35 knots will pass through the waters early this morning. A moderate to occasionally fresh breeze (BF 4-5) is expected to continue through this afternoon, allowing for an extension of the Small Craft Advisory. Winds will relax to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Wednesday and continue through the end of the work week. A line of showers and thunderstorms will pass through all the waters early this morning, then a lull in rain activity during the day. Medium chances (50-60%) for shower and thunderstorms are expected tonight through Friday night before increasing to higher chances (60- 80%) Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 79 90 77 / 30 50 30 20 Victoria 91 75 89 73 / 30 60 40 20 Laredo 100 77 95 73 / 10 50 50 80 Alice 95 77 92 74 / 20 60 40 30 Rockport 90 79 89 78 / 30 50 20 10 Cotulla 99 75 93 72 / 10 60 50 90 Kingsville 92 78 91 76 / 20 50 30 20 Navy Corpus 87 80 87 79 / 20 50 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...EMF/94  538 FXUS65 KPSR 190837 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 137 AM MST Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A broad scale troughing pattern will persist over the western U.S. through the end of the week, with a slow warming trend, but overall near normal temperatures. - Dry conditions, with no threat of rain, and seasonal afternoon breezes are expected through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A broad trough, with a few weak shortwaves swinging through, will persist across the Southwest through Thursday with rather benign Spring-like weather conditions expected. There will be a slow rise in temperatures as 500mb heights slowly rise despite the lingering trough. High temperatures this afternoon will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, with lower deserts forecast to reach the lower 90s. Normal highs this time of year are in the middle-90s, which the lower deserts will return to tomorrow and Thursday as warming steadily continues. Mornings will remain pleasantly cool, mostly in the upper 50s and 60s. Scattered high clouds will be pulled northeastward across the Desert Southwest today through early tomorrow and another weak shortwave from the northwest will bring some high clouds for Thursday. The high clouds will not be too optically thick, so there will still be plenty of sun to go around. Otherwise, very dry conditions can be expected over the next three days, with afternoon humidity levels falling below 15% nearly everywhere, and there is no shot at any rain. Aside from some breezy northerly winds across southeast CA and the Lower Colorado River this morning (gusts up to 20-30 mph), driven by strong pressure rises over NV, winds each day will mostly follow seasonal trends; light winds during the overnight and morning hours and modest upslope breezes in the afternoons with gusts up to 15-25 mph. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The slow warming trend is forecast to continue through Friday and this coming weekend. Global ensemble guidance supports the large- scale synoptic pattern across the west finally evolving out of the current state, with the strong blocking ridge near B.C. Canada giving way/weakening as a strong low traverses across Alaska. This change will result in at least a temporary de-amplification of the pattern across the western CONUS for the weekend and a trend toward positive 500mb height anomalies with brief anticyclonic flow developing over the Desert Southwest. This trend will lead to high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s by Friday and pushing 100 degrees by Sunday - Monday (30-60% odds of >=100). This pattern shift will also allow for some moisture to seep into AZ, from the southeast and with evening gulf surges, as global guidance shows a slow uptrend in PWATs Friday through the weekend. This may end up leading to some AZ high terrain afternoon convection, which is supported by some low-end NBM PoPs this weekend (<25% over eastern AZ mountains). The odds are a little higher Monday with the potential for a weak Pacific low to move inland from the west, but this is about all that can be anticipated this far out. This is climatologically the driest time of year for the AZ and SoCal lower deserts, so it is hard to put much optimism into a long-range precip forecast for the lower deserts. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0520Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather concerns expected throughout the TAF period. Westerly winds will continue into the overnight hours. Winds will resume their more typical diurnal pattern overnight tonight through Tuesday with easterly winds expected by 08-10Z and continuing through the early morning hours. A brief period of southerly winds is expected to precedethe westerly shift by the early afternoon. Skies will remain clear overnight with increasing high clouds tomorrow afternoon and evening. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies can be expected throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, winds will vary between N-NW and W'rly through the TAF period, with speeds remaining aob 10 kt. At KBLH, winds will maintain a N-NW direction through the TAF period. A period of wind gusts of 20-25 kt is expected from the late morning through the early afternoon, otherwise winds will be aob 10 kt. Skies will remain clear overnight with increasing high clouds starting tomorrow morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... There will be a slow day-to-day warming of temperatures, but overall high temperatures will remain near seasonal normals as the normals also slowly rise. Very dry conditions will also persist through the end of the week with minimum RH values around 5-15% each day. There will be a slight bump up in moisture this weekend, that may lead to some dry thunderstorms in the mountains of eastern AZ, but minimum RHs will still be around 10-15%. Overnight recoveries will be poor to fair, mostly around 25-45%. Seasonal wind patterns are expected through the rest of the week, with afternoon upslope breezes up to 15-25 mph. There will likely be a slight uptick in southerly up-river winds along the Colorado River Valley Friday through this weekend, with a small pattern shift, but afternoon and evening gusts are currently forecast to top out in the 20-30 mph range along the river. There will also likely be a return of evening and early-overnight gulf surge boundaries moving up from the Gulf of California through the AZ deserts. These boundaries will mostly lead to a brief uptick in winds and sudden southwesterly wind shifts. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Benedict LONG TERM...Benedict AVIATION...Berislavich FIRE WEATHER...Benedict  727 FXUS62 KKEY 190842 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 442 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to a generally moderate risk of heat illness with periods of high risk conditions. - Rain and thunder chances will remain on a plateau through tonight, and gradually decline thereafter. - Breezy conditions continue for the Island Chain through this evening. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across all the Florida Keys coastal waters today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 440 AM EDT Tue May 19 4406 CIMSS products shows a mean layer ridge remains in place across the western North Atlantic. However, embedded within the ridge is an upper level disturbance located to the north of the Bahamas. At the surface, a high pressure system remains in place to the north of Bermuda. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording mainly east breezes of 15 to 20 knots as a result. Moisture undulations continue to rotate around the ridge with deeper moisture currently moving through as GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) shows estimated PWAT values of 1.8 to 1.9 inches moving through the Keys. KBYX radar has been active for much of the overnight with scattered showers moving in an east to west fashion through the Keys with occasional showers impacting the Island Chain. The showers have been struggling to develop vertically due to the northwest flow aloft attributed to the upper level disturbance to the east. This is tilting the clouds to the south and thus choking off the updrafts causing the activity to weaken as fast as they develop. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows partly cloudy skies throughout the Keys. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s and dew points are in the mid 70s. .FORECAST... Surface high pressure across the western North Atlantic will continue to dominate the Keys weather for the next several days. The high will be at its strongest today with gradual weakening each day thereafter. Therefore, breezy conditions are expected to continue through this evening out of the east with modest slackening afterwards. Moisture is expected to remain elevated through at least Wednesday night before slightly drier air rotates in from the southeast for late week into the holiday weekend. This will result in chances of rain becoming slight chances. Instability will also remain elevated keeping thunder in the forecast throughout the period. Temperatures will remain quite consistent through the week with highs in the upper 80s to occasionally 90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower 80s to perhaps near 80 degrees with any showers. && .MARINE... Issued at 440 AM EDT Tue May 19 4406 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution (SCEC) remains headlined across all the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, surface high pressure centered north of Bermuda will continue to promote moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes through tonight. Highest breezes will prevail through this evening. Breezes then undergo a very slow slackening process before the weekend with peaks expected during the evenings and lulls during the day. Rain and thunder chances will remain above normal through much of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 440 AM EDT Tue May 19 4406 VFR conditions will largely prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Moisture undulations will continue to rotate through the area resulting in elevated rain and thunder chances through the period. Right now, the best chance time appears to be Tuesday afternoon, hence the time period when VCSH was included in the TAF. We will continue to monitor and amend as necessary. Near surface winds will remain mostly easterly through the period. Occasional gusts to near 20 knots are possible, especially during the daylight hours. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 4404, the daily record warm temperature of 84F was recorded in both Key West and Marathon. This is also tied for the warmest low temperature ever recorded in May. Temperatures records Key West date back to 1872 and June 1950 for Marathon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 80 90 81 / 40 30 30 30 Marathon 86 79 86 80 / 40 40 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest  010 FXUS63 KGLD 190846 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 246 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A short period of frost is possible around sunrise this morning, mainly in northeast CO (Yuma/Kit Carson counties) where temperatures may briefly fall into the mid 30's. - Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week, perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 220 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Frost Advisory: In the advisory area, a short period of frost is possible an hour or two on either side of sunrise this morning, when pervasive low ceilings (2000-3000 ft AGL at 0845Z) will begin to lift/scatter. Observational trends suggest that Yuma/Kit Carson counties are most at-risk for frost (relatively speaking). Low confidence in frost development, especially south of Hwy 36 where breezy (10-20 mph) north winds are more likely to persist through sunrise. Today: ~1025 mb surface high pressure in Wyoming at 06Z will build ESE over central Nebraska and north-central Kansas today. Expect decreasing cloud cover by sunrise and mostly clear skies by late morning as northerly low-level flow advects a drier airmass southward into the Tri-State Area. Winds will decrease to 5-10 mph by late morning to early afternoon (~16-19Z).. in concert with a weakening MSLP-850 mb height gradient. Clear skies / unimpeded insolation will foster a warming trend with highs ranging from the upper 50's to upper 60's. Tonight: Light N winds will shift to the E (this evening) and SE (early Wed morning) as the surface high over central Nebraska and north-central Kansas progresses slowly E toward northwest Missouri/western Iowa.. leading to modest low-level moisture return (850 mb dewpoints rising from -3 to 3C) by sunrise in eastern CO and adjacent KS border counties. Strengthening mid- level (700-500 mb) warm advection in advance of an upper level wave.. a modest 250-350 mb trough / shear-axis progressing eastward from the 4-Corners to the central Rockies.. will foster increasing mid-level cloud cover (ceilings at/above ~7,000 ft AGL) this evening and overnight. Despite a modest increase in low-level moisture and an increasingly upslope component to low- level flow in eastern CO, guidance suggests that weak/neutral low-level thermal advection will be insufficient for low stratus development, and that.. mid-level warm advection, in of itself, will likely be insufficient to produce measurable precipitation (i.e. anything beyond virga/sprinkles) prior to sunrise. Expect overnight (Wed morning) lows in the upper 30's to lower 40's. Wednesday: Showers are possible over portions of the area, mainly west and north of Goodland during the late morning and early afternoon when/where mid-level warm advection will be strongest; enough to capitalize on/utilize modest elevated instability (~100-250 J/kg MUCAPE). Expect broken/overcast cloud cover over most or all of the area and ~10-20 mph SE winds with highs in the upper 50's to mid 60's. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Thursday will see a stronger disturbance move out of the northern Rockies into western Colorado by the afternoon, then moving across the area Thursday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase once again. Instability will be limited by cloud cover, and models showing only weak SBCAPE of around 500 j/kg in the afternoon, mainly in Colorado. Deep layer shear will increase to 30-50 kts by 00z and may compensate somewhat for the weak instability in Colorado, where a marginally severe storm may be possible through the early evening before loss of heating. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through Thursday nightas the upper wave makes its way across the area. Additional rainfall amounts Thursday night are generally between 0.25" - 0.50", though locally higher amounts over 1" are possible. Temperatures on Thursday could remain in the 50s, especially north of Interstate 70, where clouds persist through the day, with perhaps 60s further south or west with limited clearing. Friday, our region is forecast to be under a weak southwest flow with a weak trough west of the Rocky Mountains. There is also a surface low forecast to set up somewhere in southwest Kansas. Ensembles do not fully align on the placement of this surface low. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to low 70s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue throughout the day as embedded shortwaves pass through the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are 30-60% increasing from southwest to northeast. The environment is forecast to be moderately unstable with CAPE values generally between 500-1000 J/kg for the region. However, lingering cloud cover will likely keep the environment capped, reducing the risk for severe weather. If thunderstorms are able to form, small hail could occur with stronger storms. Skies will clear out Saturday and begin a slight warming trend through the beginning of the work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s for Saturday and the 80s for Sunday and Monday. Saturday will have a 25% chance for showers and thunderstorms for the southeast county warning area (CWA) from weak shortwave passages. After Sunday, we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect primarily sunny skies and gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoons for our Colorado counties. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR ceilings are anticipated to lift/scatter to VFR by sunrise (~10-12Z). VFR conditions are expected to prevail thereafter, through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period. N winds at ~12-18 knots with gusts up to ~25 knots will persist through sunrise, then decrease to ~8-13 knots during the late morning (~16-18Z) and 5-10 knots during the afternoon. Light winds will veer to the E and SE after sunset, near the end of the 06Z TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092. NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for NEZ079-080. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...024/Rhoades AVIATION...Vincent  931 FXUS63 KLOT 190845 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 345 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms diminish early this morning across northern IL. Thunderstorm chances then increase again this afternoon, mainly southeast of a Peru IL to Valparaiso IN line. A few strong storms are possible. - Summer-like warmth and breezy winds today will give way to cooler and dry conditions for the middle of the week. - Intermittent shower/thunderstorm chances return late in the week and into the weekend, though with a return of warmer weather by Memorial Day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Early morning surface analysis places 1005 mb low over northwest Wisconsin, with a cold front trailing through central Iowa into southeast Kansas. Strong/severe thunderstorms that had developed Monday afternoon ahead of the front across the mid- Missouri Valley and elsewhere ahead of the boundary, have since evolved into another linear MCS, which currently stretches all the way from the central upper peninsula of Michigan to northwest/western Illinois, then southwest to Oklahoma. Aloft, GOES vapor imagery indicates a deepening mid-level short wave trough propagating northeastward from the northern/central Plains toward the northern Great Lakes. Strong large-scale ascent, depicted by mid-level height falls of 60-80 meters across the upper Mississippi Valley, is aiding in maintaining a strong southwesterly low-level jet across our region, which latest RAP soundings/mesoanalysis depict at 60 kts across western IL. While low-levels have diurnally stabilized, the strong low level jet and associated warm/moist advection has maintained an elevated MUCAPE axis of 1500-2000 J/kg per RAP soundings. This, combined with low-level forcing provided by the eastward- propagating outflow boundary along the leading edge of the aforementioned MCS has allowed scattered convective cells to continue to initiate atop the outflow boundary across western and northwest Illinois. Forecast soundings do indicate a weakening and veering of the low-level jet over the next few hours however, along with a decrease in elevated instability. Combined with the stable boundary layer conditions, this should continue to result in weakening trend to the convection as the outflow continues to shift east across northern IL this morning, which is already evident in recent radar and lightning data. Stable outflow and lingering scattered morning showers, combined with a stream of high-level cloud cover off of stronger convection well to our southwest should limit local convective redevelopment for the balance of the morning. The surface cold front is progged move into the forecast area early this afternoon, pushing southeast across the area into this evening. Forecast soundings are generally capped across the area initially, though become conditionally unstable with diurnal warming later this afternoon ahead of the front mainly across the southeast half of the forecast area (and especially southeast of a Pontiac-Valparaiso line). Guidance has generally backed-off with coverage of afternoon convection across our area, though frontal forcing and favorable diurnal timing especially in our far southeast should support an increasing thunderstorm threat mid-late afternoon. Forecast 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPEs and up to 35 kts of deep-layer shear (generally parallel to the frontal zone) would support some storm organization with some wind/hail potential. Note SPC has moved earlier slight risk out of the WFO Chicago area with the new Day 1 outlook, leaving a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk in our far southeast. A few showers may linger across our southeastern tier of counties this evening until the front exits the region, with a period of dry and cooler weather then expected Wednesday through Thursday. After several recent days of highs in the 70s and 80s, daytime temperatures in the 60s are expected mid-late week with 50s closer to Lake Michigan where breezy northeasterly winds will persist around an area of high pressure building across the Great Lakes region. Nighttime temps both Wednesday and Thursday night will dip into the 40s in most areas. Rain chances then return Thursday night into Friday, as guidance depicts an area of low pressure tracking from Missouri into Illinois and Indiana in association with an upper level trough transiting the region into the weekend. Some detail and timing differences remain within the global guidance suite, though rain chances appear to be highest on Friday, then more spotty from Saturday into Monday. It does appear that warmer temperatures will return later in the weekend, but likely with cooler conditions near Lake Michigan. Ratzer && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 103 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Forecast concerns for the terminals... - A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across the terminals late tonight into early Tuesday morning. - Breezy southwest winds to develop Tuesday morning behind the rain and persist through the afternoon. - Period of MVFR ceilings is expected Tuesday afternoon behind a cold front, but skies should scatter back to VFR around sunset. A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is progressing eastward across the Mississippi River and will be encroaching upon the terminals over the next 1-3 hours (earliest at RFD, latest Chicago area sites). While the line is expected to be gradually weakening as it moves through, recent AMDAR soundings out of MDW do show some developing mid-level instability which may allow for a couple of lightning strikes to occur. Despite confidence in thunder actually reaching the Chicago terminals being somewhat low (~20% chance) have opted to introduce a PROB30 for TSRA at DPA, ORD, and MDW as a precaution give the aforementioned instability and lack of broad weakening in the line so far. That said, still think that the most likely scenario at the Chicago sites (especially GYY) is for some isolated to widely scattered showers to occur. The line of showers/storms should diminish by daybreak and result in a mostly dry morning. Winds will be increasing with southwesterly gusts peaking around 25-30 kts through early Tuesday afternoon, but locally higher gusts could materialize if deeper mixing is achieved. As the main cold front approaches Tuesday afternoon it will bring with it a period of MVFR ceilings and perhaps an isolated shower or two though the greatest shower/storm coverage should establish more into northern and central IN. With the increasing cloud cover, gusts should ease a bit into the lower 20 kt range through the rest of the afternoon. Directions during this time will also transition from southwest to west-northwest before turning northwesterly behind the cold front early Tuesday evening. While a few upper teen to lower 20 kt gusts cannot be ruled out Tuesday night, it seems they frequency of gusts should be more sporadic so have opted to remove gusts from the TAFs from this point onward. In the wake of the cold front, ceilings should rise back to VFR Tuesday evening and remain as such for the rest of the forecast period. Lastly winds will finally settle into a northeast direction early Wednesday morning. Yack && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  051 FXUS65 KBOI 190848 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 248 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory for the western Magic Valley until 8 AM MDT this morning. - Warming trend and continued generally dry the rest of the week. Monday should be the warmest day. - Cold front early Tuesday, then windy and turning cooler with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Patchy frost this morning in the western Magic Valley but Wednesday morning will be milder with no frost. Gradual warming trend today through Thursday as the main upper trough shifts east of the Continental Divide. However, another weaker upper trough, in BC early this morning, will dig southward into eastern ID Wednesday and limit the warming in our area. This second trough will be close enough to our CWA for a slight chance of showers in eastern Valley County Wednesday evening, and also slightly stronger wind in the Magic Valley Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, no eventful weather through Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... A ridge of high pressure will build over the Western US by the end of this week, bringing generally warm and dry conditions to the region through Monday. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees above normal. On Saturday, a quick moving shortwave trough will move through the region bringing low chances of showers and thunderstorms (<10% chance) over high terrain in southwest Idaho and the OR-NV border. The ridge will reach peak strength on Sunday, with high temperatures near 90F in the Treasure Valley. By Monday, there is widespread model agreement in a deep upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest. The low will then move into the region on Tuesday, cooling temperatures off by 10-20 degrees and bringing breezy winds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance). && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 1206 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR. Virga/isolated showers re-developing Tuesday afternoon over high terrain, mainly the northeast OR/central ID mtns. Surface winds: variable 5-10 kt overnight, then SW-NW 5-15 kt Tue afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: transitioning from NW to W, 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: light and variable through the morning. Then, NW 5-10 kt Tue afternoon with occasional gusts around 15 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for IDZ016. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....SA AVIATION.....SA  391 FXUS65 KTWC 190857 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 157 AM MST Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A storm system to our north will bring southwesterly breezes today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be slightly below to near normal for the rest of the week with Minor Heat Risk. && .DISCUSSION...This morning's water vapor imagery shows a weather system over Utah where it will linger over the region today and tomorrow. This system will continue southwesterly breezes this afternoon and again tomorrow. The speeds will be less than the previous days, but enough to raise elevated to brief near critical fire weather conditions for Cochise County. Over the next two days, ensemble models show a low pressure circulation over Baja California, separating itself from the main trough currently over the intermountain west. This low will inject upper level moisture into the area, leading to high clouds starting later today. Temperatures will be near normal with Minor HeatRisk for the region. By the weekend, the moisture will work its way down the atmosphere, sitting around 700mb for the eastern areas of Tucson. There are some uncertainty on the amount of moisture making its way down and how far west it would be. The lower levels will remain dry. Memorial Day weekend is shaping up to cloud build ups, non- zero chance for a dry thunderstorm, and gusty erratic winds from any virga. Otherwise, temperatures will stay near normal with Minor HeatRisk. && .AVIATION...valid through 20/12Z. Mostly SKC this morning with high cirrus. By 19/18Z, SCT-BKN clouds at or around 20K feet AGL and another FEW-SCT layer at or around 15K feet AGL through most of the forecast period. SFC winds this morning, and again after 20/03Z, will be less than 12 kts and terrain driven. By 19/18Z, southwesterly winds at 12-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts. The strongest winds will be south and east of KTUS, especially at KDUG terminal. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry and breezy conditions today and tomorrow, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for areas east and south of Tucson with brief near critical conditions existing in the southeastern portion of Cochise County. By the end of the week, winds will be generally be less than 15 mph with min relative humidities sitting in the teens to the mid-20s. Upper level moisture will be moving into the region starting Saturday, leading to mainly virga and cloud build ups to a non-zero chance for a dry thunderstorm in the higher terrain. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson  427 FXUS62 KFFC 190857 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 457 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures continue through the work week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. - Increased rain chances return tomorrow through the weekend, especially in northern and western Georgia. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 455 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Temperatures will quickly climb into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon, with relative humidity falling into the upper 30% range as high pressure keeps moisture off to the west of the CWA. This will prevent afternoon thunderstorms for a final day before we reintroduce them to the forecast tomorrow. Winds will be light out of the S/SE at less than 10mph. Overnight lows will remain in the 60s and moisture values across NW Georgia will increase out ahead of a cold front pushing through the TN river valley area. As a result, the best chance for thunderstorms will be limited to the far northwest tomorrow during the afternoon and early evening. While a few rumbles of thunder are possible, widespread severe weather appears unlikely in this dry environment. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 455 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A weakening cold front will have entered the far northern tier by the time the long term period picks up on Wednesday evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger across far north and west Georgia in the closest vicinity to the front, though coverage will steadily diminish after sunset and thunderstorms will come to an end after midnight. As ridging over the Atlantic Coast and west Atlantic continues to flatten, the front will make some minimal progress southward during the early morning, eventually stalling north of I-20 amid southwesterly flow aloft during the daytime on Thursday. Temperatures and dewpoints will start the morning on Thursday in the mid to upper 60s across the area. High temperatures will be slightly cooler across far north Georgia (in the low to mid 80s) behind the front compared to upper 80s elsewhere in north Georgia and low 90s in central Georgia. Hot and humid conditions will support diurnally enhanced convection, with PoPs of 60-80% in the northern half of the area closest to the frontal boundary, and 30-50% in the southern half of the area. The front will become less defined and begin to lift back northward on Friday within southwest mid-level flow along the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge. This southwesterly flow will intensify as a second ridge approaches from the Great Plains, giving the front an additional push away to the north. While this ridge sets up over the eastern CONUS during the weekend, the aforementioned southwesterly flow will continue to spread ample moisture into the forecast area. Temperatures rising into the 80s and low 90s each day along with ample moisture will lead to scattered to numerous diurnal convection each day through the weekend into early next week. Coverage of storms will be greatest during the afternoon and evening. At this time, the deepest moisture and highest PWATs will keep the most consistent heavy rainfall west of Georgia. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR expected through the TAF cycle for ATL. A CU field will develop after 16Z bringing a SCT low VFR deck, but no category change is expected. Winds will be out of the SE at 5kts or less. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 90 66 91 66 / 0 0 10 10 Atlanta 89 69 89 69 / 0 0 20 20 Blairsville 85 6285 62 / 0 0 20 20 Cartersville 90 65 90 65 / 0 0 20 20 Columbus 91 68 91 68 / 0 0 10 10 Gainesville 88 66 88 67 / 0 0 10 10 Macon 90 66 91 67 / 0 0 10 10 Rome 88 64 88 63 / 0 0 20 20 Peachtree City 89 66 90 66 / 0 0 10 10 Vidalia 91 65 91 67 / 10 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....King AVIATION...Vaughn