759 FXUS63 KGID 190000 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 700 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A handful of severe storms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado will be possible between 3-8PM today. The severe threat will mainly be for places near and east of HWY-81. - A few showers, areas of drizzle and non-severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across areas outside of the severe threat. - Highs, following the passage of a cold front today, will peak in the 50s and 60s for much of the area. A few north central Kansas locations as well as far southeast Nebraska areas could see highs in the 70s. - The next chance of precipitation will come Wednesday night (40-50% chance). - Highs the rest of the week will stay in the 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday, the low to mid 70s for Friday and the upper 70s to low 80s for Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A broad upper level trough over the Rockies has been the driving force for severe weather yesterday and today. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level wave crossing much of the Central Plains this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are currently going up along a boundary stretching from Hebron, NE to Lincoln, KS, as of 2:30 PM CDT. The main threat are a few tornadoes, golf ball size hail, and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Severe weather is forecast for Mitchell and Jewell continues in KS and Thayer county in NE. Storms will move out the region by the late afternoon with a majority of the severe weather threat off to the east. Areas behind the cold front, which is much of the county warning area, will see low stratus lingering into tonight causing light rain and drizzle. Tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop down into the mid to upper 30s across the county warning area. However, cloud cover and elevated winds, around 15 mph, will likely keep frost from forming. Low stratus should start to clear out by the early morning hours west to east. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to climb up into the 60s. Low temperatures tomorrow night are forecast to drop down into the lower to mid 30s across the northern half of the warning area. Unlike tonight, winds are forecast to be on the lighter side allowing frost to potentially form. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the Central Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the region Wednesday bringing forth chances for more precipitation. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side through the middle of the week as the cooler airmass lingers across the Plains. Thus, temperatures are forecast to range from the 60s to low 70s through Friday. Daily chances for thunderstorms returns from Wednesday night into the weekend. NSSL machine learning program and the CSU machine learning program are pegging Friday with a low chance of Severe weather mainly across the southern half of the county warning area. It is possible this low chance of severe weather shifts further south. Temperatures will warm this weekend as an upper level ridge begins to build across the Central US. This warm pattern will continue into early next with conditions drying out. The NBM 25th to 75th percentiles have high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to the mid 90s. Thus, fairly high confidence on above normal temperatures to start out next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Low level cloud cover and gusty winds will remain a concern this evening through the overnight hours. There is some uncertainty with ceilings...as models show them hovering either side of the MVFR/IFR threshold. Model time heights don't show a more improvement in ceilings until mid-late morning on Tuesday...VFR conditions do return, confidence in the exact timing is not high. Not looking at changes in the winds out of the northwest...with the potential for gusts around 25-30 MPH not out of the question through the overnight hours. Speeds gradually taper off Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon hours. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...ADP  743 FXUS65 KRIW 190000 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 600 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloud cover will gradually decrease from the northwest overnight leading to widespread sub-freezing temperatures east of the Continental Divide early Tuesday morning. Fresh snow cover in some areas could allow temperatures to drop into the teens. Freeze warnings are in effect Monday night. - Conditions will be dry and temperatures rebound Tuesday and Wednesday, but daytime highs remain well below normal. The arrival of another weather system Thursday cools temperatures a few degrees and provides another round of precipitation. - Early indications point to a much warmer and dry Memorial Day holiday weekend with widespread 75 to 85 degree daytime highs. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1235 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 The snow and wind across the area has been mostly as forecasted. Greatest impacts were around South Pass and I-80, with winter travel impacts going into this afternoon. Conditions should slowly improve through the evening as snow decreases and winds diminish. As was the trend in the day leading to the start of the event, northern locations have not seen as much (or any) snow, so have ended the advisories there early. As the system exits, very cold temperatures remain in place, with lows tonight in the upper teens to mid-20s for a majority of the area. Cooler temperatures remain in place Tuesday and Tuesday night, with a very gradual warm up into the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Rain changed over to snow in the Wind River Basin and across Sweetwater County just a few hours ago after 11pm Sunday night. Much of Natrona County is around 37F degrees as of 08Z (2am), with precipitation still falling as rain. The forecast remains on track this morning, with the threat of snow and wind impacting areas from South Pass southward into Sweetwater County. The 700mb low from this storm system will be passing close to the CO/WY border this morning, resulting in a tight temperature and pressure gradient. 700mb northeast winds of 50-60kt will occur from the Green Mountains/Rattlesnake Range into Sweetwater County. This will result in wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph occurring this morning over locations like South Pass down to the Rock Springs/Green River area. Windy conditions (wind gusts up to 35 mph) will be widespread across the CWA this morning as the storm system moves over CO this morning. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches is still expected across portions of Natrona County, the Lander Foothills and the eastern half of Sweetwater County. Travel conditions could be difficult this morning due to the blowing snow and icy roads. Impacts from snow accumulations on roads is likely to only last through 15Z/16Z (9am or 10am) as it will be more difficult for the snow to stick due to the high sun angle. These impacts will begin to decrease through the morning, with areas like Lander and Casper improving first as snow begins to end toward midday. Impacts along I-80 will last the longest due to the proximity of the 700mb low, but is expected to wane between 18Z and 21Z as snowfall ends. Winds will be decreasing across the area after 18Z as well, with the stronger winds of 35 to 40 mph continuing from South Pass southward into Sweetwater County and decreasing through the afternoon. Needless to say, temperatures will be anywhere from 5 to 25 degrees colder today and about 15 to 30 degrees below normal. Winds will continue to decrease this evening, as the storm system quickly exits over the Central Plains and light winds (10kt or less) expected for most areas by 06Z Tuesday. Fog development could occur as late as sunrise Tuesday morning as clouds are expected to remain in place across central and southern portions of the CWA through much of the night tonight. Dry and warming conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with another Canadian storm system impacting the area on Thursday. This system doesn't look to be as cold as today's storm and snow levels staying around 7000ft at this time. Model guidance remain split at this time, but confidence is medium for a mainly dry holiday weekend for at least 2 of the 3 days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 410 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A spring system will continue to impact the area through this evening. Several terminals will continue to see lingering MVFR to IFR snow impacts. Most persistently will be KBPI and KPNA, which should see IFR conditions through around 06Z. East of the Divide, KCPR is expected to hold on to impacts the longest. Confidence for additional impacts at remaining terminals is lower, with KLND and then KRIW most likely to see occasional MVFR to IFR impacts as snow lingers in the Wind River Basin. This activity is expected to wane everywhere after 06Z, with clouds decreasing from west to east overnight. If skies clear quick enough fog may be an issue at several terminals after around 10Z. For now, we are most confident at KBPI and especially KRKS, though fog potential will also need to be watched for at KCPR, KLND, KPNA, and KRIW. Any low clouds should lift by late Tuesday morning, with VFR conditions expected across the area through Tuesday afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ003>006-010-011-016>020. && $$ UPDATE...Wittmann DISCUSSION...LaVoie AVIATION...Myers  899 FXUS63 KDLH 190002 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 702 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another night with showers and storms possible. Severe risk has decreased and is now isolated to southeast portions of our CWA. Primary threats would be damaging winds and large hail. - Freeze Warning likely needed across most the region for Tuesday night. - Cool temps through midweek with a warming trend into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Noted dense fog around the Twin Ports and up over Thompson Hill at KDYT and on webcams, so issued a short-term Dense Fog Advisory. Thinking in coming convection will help to mix this out though it may return later tonight until winds turn northwesterly after midnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current Conditions/Today: Widespread stratus has engulfed most the region in the wake of last nights showers and isolated storms. We are also seeing some areas of fog from the Brainerd Lakes Region and extending northeast through the Twin Ports and up the shore. This layer of stable air will keep temperatures cool with highs staying in the 50s under this cloud deck. Satellite is showing a few pockets of clearing over SE MN and western WI where temperatures will rebound back into the 70s helping to reload instability for this evenings convective potential. However, up in our portion of NW WI there are few breaks in the clouds with low clouds still filtering in from the west, so recovery seems limited. A baroclinic zone will still be draped across the Upper Midwest this afternoon with a surface low pressure centered over SE MN. Through the evening and overnight hours several low pressure systems will ride along this boundary boosting lift and helping to fuel shower and storm development. However, satellite trends through the morning hours have not been favorable for instability recovery and our temperatures across the region remain quite cool when compared to our neighbors to the south. The main threat for severe weather will be well off to our south. As such the SPC has pulled the severe risk down to just our SE corner with a marginal risk. Some strong storms can't be ruled out at this time with some damaging winds and hail at times, but the tornado chances are no longer a concern. Showers are expected to become more widespread later this evening. The two focal points for this activity is the low pressure moving along the stalled boundary and an upper level trough pivoting across the Upper Midwest. Targeted timing for rain entering from the southwest is after 9PM with activity departing to the northeast after 8AM. With the reduced risk for thunderstorms our overall rain totals have come down a bit with most the region seeing between 0.10-0.25" Areas that do see thunderstorms will have locally higher amounts, but the overall risk for flooding has diminished. Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday: Northwest flow and surface high pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday. Cyclonic flow aloft paired with remnant moisture will lead to diurnally driven cumulus and isolated sprinkles across northern MN. Temperatures will be on the cool side for Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Overnight, the high pressure moves over MN with clear skies leading to rapid radiational cooling. Widespread Freeze Warnings will likely be needed across the region. Conditions dry out a bit more on Wednesday with high temps rebounding back into the 50s and 60s. Winds will be light so fire weather concerns are low at this time. By Thursday high pressure departs to the east and we will get southerly return flow streaming back into the region. High temps will continue to climb back into the upper 60s with cooler conditions expected by Lake Superior. Friday-Weekend: An upper level trough is still expected to move across the Northern Plains to end the work week bringing rain chances back to the Northland. Timing of this has been slowed down when compared to previous model runs with 20-30% PoPs now entering Friday afternoon. This will also prompt the return of southwest flow aloft leading to a warming trend. Weekend temperatures in the 70s and some 80s possible with cooler by the Lake still in play. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Pockets of IFR/LIFR stratus clouds will slowly return this evening. Showers and some storms are expected to develop and move northeast through the region which may mix up the boundary layer but may help to reinforce low clouds into the morning on Tuesday. The storms and shower activity will move off to the northeast with gusty northwest winds filtering in behind Tuesday. Ceilings may be slow to improve tomorrow and may remain sub-VFR through the TAF period. Winds will slowly switch backing from easterly to northwesterly through the TAF period. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Light winds currently across the Lake. These winds will increase out of the northeast this evening with Small Craft Advisories in effect. Winds will turn to out of the northwest Tuesday afternoon and weaken. Additionally, a few showers and storms are possible tonight through tomorrow morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Cloudy today with high Min RHs. Another batch of showers and a few storms are expected to roll over the region the region tonight and exit tomorrow morning. Rain totals have trended down with most areas expected to see between 0.10-0.25" Areas that do get thunderstorm development can expect locally higher amounts. Gusty northwest wind for Tuesday paired with virga and sprinkles in the afternoon. Next dry day will likely be Wednesday, winds will be light though as high pressure moves over the region. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140>143. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ146-147. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ148-150. && $$ UPDATE...Wolfe DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Britt FIRE WEATHER...Britt  880 FXUS63 KPAH 190002 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 702 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy today with thunderstorms continuing through the afternoon and early evening (40-70% chance), and limited potential for a few strong to severe storms. - High rain chances (70-90%) from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. A few strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain are possible. - Daily rain chances continue through the rest of the week and weekend (Thursday is the driest) with cooler late week highs in the 70s to near 80. && .UPDATE... Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Training showers and thunderstorms continue to brush against the northern edge of the Quad State, tracking east-northeastward. Separately, scattered showers and thunderstorms have tracked northeastward through the Quad State late morning through the present and should continue the rest of the afternoon to early evening as an impulse from Texas moves through. CAMs continue to vary on development, with the HRRR eager to generate storms from the impulse, while the ARW favors a Missouri MCS early evening. Current radar presentation suggests the Missouri convection tracks near/along I-64 while the impulse tracks near the Ohio River. MLCAPE is up to 1500-2500J/kg while effective bulk shear is 20-30kts. Dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s are accompanied by PWs of 1.8-2.0in. A marginal risk covers much of the Quad State with a sliver of a slight in the far north, and some strong storms are likely to develop, but severe weather is more limited. A Lake Wind Advisory remains though, of the primary lakes, only Lake Barkley/Kentucky Lake have avoided the off and on showers/storms. Models agree on an overnight MCS in Missouri weakening on approach late tonight with limited PoPs in the west Tuesday morning. Redevelopment on residual boundaries, or a new MCS, are varied across models making timing difficult. One the environment following this afternoon/evening becomes known, it will help shape model assessment of development tomorrow. More commonly in the models at the moment, a band of storms pushes eastward late Tuesday into the evening with an evening/overnight cold frontal passage. PW values remains high, with continued very warm temperatures as highs surge to the upper 80s again. Plenty of CAPE will be available but shear is even more limited than today and will be a limiting factor. A slight risk covers most of the Quad State. When it comes to rainfall, some models produce a max along the Ohio River into SWIN with heavy development and training from the Texas sourced impulse today. Otherwise, models focus on the training showers/storms in the north that have progressed into the I-64 corridor. Heavy rainfall in either of these zones is possible today, but antecedent dry conditions will keep flooding potential limited for today. As for tomorrow, models don't tend to show much of any training but, should any occur over areas which receive decent rainfall today, flooding issues can develop. A cold front moves through Tuesday evening resulting in much colder conditions for the rest of the workweek. Highs drop to the mid 70s to near 80 Wednesday through Friday while midweek lows drop to the 50s. Temperatures trend slowly warmer late week into the weekend. Active weather remains in the forecast as the front stalls near enough to the Quad State Wednesday for some showers and possibly a few storms (mainly in the south). Thursday has the driest ensemble as high pressure moves through the Great Lakes but outliers exist such as the GFS which tracks a small surface low through Western Kentucky. The front is more likely to push back north Friday as better model agreement yields likely- categorical PoPs. The boundary could help with producing some strong to severe storms but confidence is low at this time. Continued upper flow from the southwest will keep rain chances in through the weekend. LREF 7-day rainfall has a 25th-75th percentile spread of 1.5-3 inches, which would help with ongoing drought. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Shra/tsra possible at all sites through 02z-04z accompanied by MVFR vsbys and cigs around 3000 feet. Gusty winds of 20-35kts possible with storms. VFR conditions expected after 04z into Tuesday morning. Shra/tsra will spread across the TAF sites between 17z-21z persisting through the end of the TAF period, again accompanied by MVFR conditions. Winds tonight will range from variable around 5kts to south at 5-10 kts, becoming southwest by 13z-15z and increasing to 10-15kts with gusts around 20kts. Stronger winds possible with tsra. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...RST  939 FXAK69 PAFG 190003 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 403 PM AKDT Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Warm, dry and breezy across the Interior. Cold and breezy across the North Slope. Showery conditions expected across the West Coast and Western Interior with more moderate, yet still warm temperatures. High water along the Lower Yukon River has caused flooding impacts in Grayling, Holy Cross, and Russian Mission. Flood Warnings have been issued for these communities. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Isolated to scattered showers are expected to begin for the Interior Monday into Tuesday with a non-zero chance of embedded thunderstorms amongst the showers. - Another round of gusty southerly winds are expected through the Alaska Range passes beginning Monday evening and persisting through Tuesday night. Wind gusts through Isabel and Windy Pass are expected to be between 45 and 55 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Isabel Pass and Delta Junction. - Mostly dry conditions expected across the Interior interrupted by occasional rain showers. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Delta Junction - Seasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue across the Interior through much of the week. West Coast and Western Interior... - Gusty S-SE winds are expected across the West Coast Tuesday afternoon with the shortwave passage. - Showery conditions are expected along the Lower Yukon and Yukon Delta regions throughout the week. Heavier showers are expected Tuesday and Thursday. These showers will be mostly rain with - Periods of showery conditions are expected across the rest of the West Coast Tuesday and Thursday. These showers will be mostly rain, especially nearer the Interior, but some periods of snow and light wintry mix are possible near St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Coast. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Chilly temperatures persist with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens along the North Slope. A gradient of temperatures across the Brooks Range with highs in the 50s to near 60 along the southern slopes and low 40s for the northern slopes. - Breezy northeasterly winds along the Western North Slope weaken slightly and shift more easterly. E to ENE winds 15 to 25 mph are expected across the Arctic Coast Tuesday through Wednesday. - Showery conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday along the southern portions of the Brooks Range. Little to no precipitation is expected across the North Slope. - Low clouds and areas of fog persist across the Arctic Coast and will likely remain through much of the week, especially along the Eastern Arctic Coast. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... For Monday through Thursday. At the start of the forecast period the overall pattern is dominated by a low in the Bering Sea and a ridge over western Canada. A high pressure region over the Chukchi Sea moves east towards the ridge in Canada Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination of these features leads to broad southerly flow across the Alaska Range leading to consistently breezy winds which strengthen as stronger shortwaves move through the pattern. The next stronger shortwave to move through the pattern arrives Tuesday, bringing more widespread showers to the West Coast as well as the strengthening winds across the Interior. Daytime heating and a well mixed atmosphere will allow some of the stronger gusts to more easily reach the surface during the afternoons and evenings. Over the North Slope colder than normal temperatures continue due to the presence of the Arctic high that settles over that region. Breezy easterly winds are expected across the Arctic Coast so long as the high pressure remains. OnThursday another low approaches the Bering low and combines with it to reinforce it and undo several days of the low slowly weakening. This pulls the low center further east towards southwest Alaska and once again allows for stronger winds through the Alaska Range and for showery conditions to push further into the Interior. && .FIRE WEATHER... The overall pattern remains mostly static across the region through much of the week. A low in the Bering Sea and ridging over Western Canada supports broad southerly flow across the region. Southerly flow over the Alaska Range is helping to keep much of the Central and Eastern Interior dry due to downslope winds. Strong gap winds through the Alaska Range passes are further increasing fire risk by bringing consistent gusts in the 20 to 35 mph range that strengthens Tuesday and Thursday as shortwaves rotate around the low in the Bering and increase the pressure gradient. Gusts up to 55 mph are expected Tuesday through these passes and near Delta Junction Tuesday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Delta Junction Tuesday afternoon and evening for the combination of dry fuels, strong winds, and dry air with minimum RHs near 25%. This pattern is expected to remain through much of the week and near critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens once more. Showery conditions follow these shortwaves as they move across the state with the greatest quantity of and heaviest showers expected further south and west closer to the Bering Sea low. && .HYDROLOGY... Yukon River: The breakup front on the Yukon has passed Russian Mission. As of Monday morning an ice jam was reported downstream of Russian Mission that has caused river rises in Russian Mission. A Flood Warning has been issued. Water remains high on the Yukon upriver from the breakup front due to snowmelt and the Yuki Ice Jam release. Water has inundated the road to the airport at Grayling and Holy Cross. Flood warnings have been issued. High water is expected to continue until the ice jam releases. Water levels will likely rise near the jam as higher water levels continue to move downstream towards the jam. Water levels are continuing to drop at Galena and beginning to drop at Koyukuk. No additional water level rises are expected at Koyukuk or Galena. As of 7am AKDT the river gauge at Galena shows the water levels dropping down to 123.1 ft which is below the minor flooding stage. Buckland River: Water levels are falling and the river upstream of Buckland is open. Open leads have been reported downstream of Buckland and flooding is no longer expected. Chena: The Chena River continues to respond to warmer temperatures with higher elevation snowmelt leading to rivers running higher than normal, but likely remaining below action stage. Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... High confidence remains in place through the extended forecast period as a broad upper-level trough over the Bering Sea and high pressure over the Northeast Pacific maintain persistent southerly flow across much of the state. This pattern will support chances of scattered showers heading into the weekend as a series of shortwaves and associated frontal boundaries rotate through the region. By Thursday, a stalling Bering Sea low will push a cold front into Western Alaska, while an associated triple-point low tracks along southern regions of the state, reinforcing precipitation south of the Alaska Range through Friday. As this system approaches, an increasing pressure gradient against high pressure over the High Arctic will generate gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph along the West Coast and up to 55 mph through the Alaska Range passes and near Delta Junction. A stationary front draped just south of the Brooks Range will maintain a sharp temperature contrast through the period; the North Slope will see the coldest conditions with highs lingering in the 20s and 30s. Conversely, the Interior will remain the warmest region, with high temperatures comfortably reaching into the 50s and 60s. As the late-week Bering Sea low weakens, long range models remain in reasonable agreement on another low pressure system moving into the Gulf of Alaska this weekend, reinforcing chances for scattered showers to be ushered in by a broad upper-level troughing setup into early next week over the region. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849. Flood Watch for AKZ829-830. Red Flag Warning for AKZ937. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860. && $$ Stokes Extended- PSS  974 FXUS63 KARX 190003 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 703 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The severe weather threat looks lower for tonight. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the Slight Risk further south. The northern extent of the Slight Risk now only extends north to Interstate 90 where before it extended as far north as northeast Minnesota. - Patchy to areas of frost possible in north-central and central Wisconsin on Tuesday night and Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 This Afternoon and Tonight The squall line that moved through our area last night has moved south into the Interstate 70 corridor. South of this line, the temperatures are in the lower 80s and dew points ranging from the mid-60s to lower 70s. With rain cooled air north of this boundary, this air mass will remain south of our forecast area for tonight. As a result, we have seen a reduction in the instability available for the storms along the cold front tonight. Surface-based CAPES which looked to be in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range yesterday are now only up to 750 J/kg. In addition, the stronger 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear remains post frontal. The CAMs are progressively moving the squall line further and further south. Much of the consensus in the CAMs has this squall line moving east across southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Further north, there are more scattered thunderstorms. This has reduced the severe weather threat because there would be less coalescing of the cold pools. Due to this, we reached out to the Storm Prediction Center and was able to get a more southern shift in the Day 1 Slight Risk. It is now south of Interstate 90. There is now a Marginal Risk from Interstate 90 north into Upper Michigan. If there is severe weather, it would occur between 19.03z and 19.07z. The primary threat would be damaging winds. Tuesday A northern stream shortwave trough will move northeast across western and northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. This will result in some scattered morning showers. The strong cold air advection in the wake of the cold front will continue into the day. High temperatures for the day will occur around midnight in the mid- and upper 60s. Temperatures during the day will be in the 50s and 60s. Tuesday Night and Wednesday night The combination of mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s and 40s. There could be the potential for even colder temperatures in central and north-central Wisconsin. This could result in some patchy to areas of frost in our traditional cooler areas of central and north- central Wisconsin. Friday into the Weekend A northern stream shortwave will move slowly east through the region. As this occurs, there will be periodic showers and storms. Like yesterday, both the 0-3 and 0-6 km shear remain less than 30 knots. As a result, the probabilities for organized severe weather look low. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 703 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions continue for most locations through the evening, with the exception of southeast Minnesota and north central Wisconsin where MVFR CIGS will continue through much of the day tomorrow. MVFR to IFR CIGS push in behind the rain during the overnight before lifting to MVFR by late morning. Showers and thunderstorms move into northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota this evening and then into western Wisconsin between 03 and 05Z. Light rain may continue through the overnight before clearing out by sunrise. Southwest to southeast winds continue through the overnight until the cold front passage between 08 and 14Z across the region which will turn the winds to the northwest. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...Cecava  104 FXUS63 KGRB 190004 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 704 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe storms possible through tonight. Greatest coverage of storms northwest part of the area late this evening and overnight. - Drier and cooler mid to late week. Frost or freeze headlines may be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday night. - Warmer by next weekend with return of rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Main concern is chance of severe storms through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Modified warm front is working through the area from the south. It is running into affects from earlier storms to south and southeast. Subsidence to west of storms over Michigan is resulting in minimal re-development of showers and storms thus far. Decent cu field is blossoming over western WI into central WI, but capping is noted on forecast soundings in these areas rest of the day. Lowered pops to slight chance all areas through 5p. An warm and certainly more humid day by recent standards. Primary convective development this afternoon into early evening will be well to the south over the central Plains. As the warm front lifts north, it could be enough to overcome the capping for a few storms to develop, especially northern WI. Isolated strong storm is possible with MUCAPE up to 1000J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kts. Severe threat will be higher if a storm could become truly surfaced based and occur near the front. Wave to north of this convection over the plains along with approaching sfc low looks to bring best chance of a line of storms late this evening into the overnight hours for central and north-central WI. Main hazard with these storms will be gusty winds and heavy rain. Isolated damaging wind gust could occur if line remains more organized as it moves into the area. Overall the chance for severe weather this afternoon through tonight has trended downward as SPC has trimmed the Slight Risk out of all our forecast area. Leftovers of this overnight line of storms shift by late tonight. A few showers or storms may linger through the morning over eastern WI, just ahead of cold front. The front sweeps through by early afternoon, shifting southwest winds to northwest. Winds will be gusty up to 30 mph. Highs could touch 70 over eastern WI, but will be in the 60s for most, with even some 50s over north-central WI. Beyond Tuesday, rest of the week looks generally dry. Canadian high shifts across late Tuesday through Wednesday night. Frost or freeze headlines may be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday night, especially northern WI. Greatest risk is Wednesday night with high overhead and PWATs less than 0.5 inch. Min RH will be low Wed through Fri afternoon's. Return flow kicks in late this week into next weekend with highs steadily returning to at or above normal. Chances for rain and perhaps some thunder increase by next weekend. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 704 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Continued dry weather and VFR flying conditions are expected through most of the evening (through ~05Z). A few showers could pop up earlier at KRHI, and fog off Lake Michigan will impact vsby at KMTW. A line of rain and thunderstorms is expected to move into central and north-central WI around 04-05Z. This will be accompanied by lowering cigs to MVFR/IFR along with lower vsbys during periods of heavy rain. A brief window of strong to severe storms exists from ~05-09Z in central and north-central WI (including KAUW, KCWA, and KRHI) with wind gusts to 60 mph and small hail possible. Otherwise, main impacts will be lightning, brief heavy rain, and stronger wind gusts. By the time this line gets to eastern WI it will likely weaken significantly. Included PROB30 groups for east- central WI TAF sites as confidence in any thunderstorms reaching these locations is low. Showers linger through ~13-14Z Tuesday morning, then dry weather is expected for the rest of the day. IFR/MVFR cigs are forecast through Tuesday morning in the wake of the precipitation, with improvements to MVFR/VFR in the afternoon. South winds veer southwest overnight, and then veer to the west- northwest Tuesday behind the cold front, along with wind gusts to 25 kts. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA AVIATION.......KLJ  952 FXUS64 KEWX 190003 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 703 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance for a few showers and storms today mainly along the Rio Grande - Line of strong to severe storms with locally heavy rain possible Tuesday evening/night. - Active weather pattern from mid-week through the upcoming Memorial Holiday weekend. Heavy rain at times could lead to localized flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The cap should continue to hold this afternoon, but sufficient warming could spark isolated storms along the Rio Grande in the evening which may push east if they do develop. While only the 12Z HRW ARW and FV3 CAMs depicted deep convection developing in this manner out of the HREF suite, the moist and buoyant environment does increase the background potential relative to typical expectations, so storm chances this evening are but were adjusted higher than the NBM mainly over the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau. The low-level jet that delivered several days of abnormally breezy and humid conditions will continue for another night (albeit with slightly reduced strength), imparting southerly gusts in the 20-30 mph tonight. The upper-air disturbance over the Central Plains that enabled the LLJ is actively moving farther away, so we expect that winds will start to gradually subside tomorrow. Humid air will likely persist through the week, but lows Tuesday morning should cap off a streak of mornings with near-record to record-setting mild temperatures. A weak cold front will slowly crawl south towards our local area throughout the day. This front arrives without the support of northerly winds aloft, so this won't be a front known for its northerly post-frontal winds or brisk arrival. Instead, the interaction of the front with the humid airmass stockpiled over our area should produce scattered to widespread shower and storm activity, with that action encroaching upon the Hill Country by the evening hours. Additionally, southwesterly divergent flow aloft should produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dry line atop the higher terrain over Mexico, which may move east towards the Rio Grande and join up with the front. A steady cap should be able to generally mute storm development over South-Central Texas for most of morning and afternoon Tuesday. Despite the clouds and moist air, highs in the 90s with the ample humidity should again boost heat indices above 100F for portions of the Rio Grande Plains and Coastal Plains, with values in the mid to upper 90s elsewhere. However, as the front and dry line get active and move closer, rain chances go up quickly after sunset and temperatures should begin to fall off more than they have on previous days. The primary period of storminess Tuesday is likely from Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. The SPC has highlighted a Level 2 of 5 (Slight) risk of severe weather with the greatest risk generally along and west of the I-35 corridor. While the simulated radar outputs from the hi-res models disagree in the general arrangement of storms Tuesday evening, the overall environment with weak mid-level flow along the front supports a line of thunderstorms along the front pushing south over the area. There's a somewhat emergent model consensus that this line could reach the Hill Country / Edwards Plateau near or just before sunset and then progress south through the rest of our area before winding down in the pre-dawn hours Wednesday, not too unlike our line of storms last week. The primary severe threat would likely be isolated strong to damaging wind as storms ripple along the front. There could be some isolated large hail potential mainly over the Edwards Plateau, but the rather modest effective bulk shear (generally under 30 kt) and high freezing level will generally limit that risk to only the strongest updrafts. The heavy rain potential will also need to be monitored as well as the front brushes up against the moist, accumulated Gulf air. The WPC has up to a Level 2 of 4 (Slight) risk for isolated heavy rain capable of flash flooding across a substantial portion of our warning area, and the generally weak flow aloft and thick warm cloud depth could support more efficient downpours. Storms that manage to develop ahead of the front would find themselves briefly in a slow-moving environment and add to this rain. This signal is slightly higher in the southern Hill Country Rain totals will generally depend on how quickly the rain-cooled air pushing the line of storms kicks into gear, but the overall prospects for widespread amounts above 1 inch looks likely. A few localized pockets of 3-5" of rain is also hinted at by the CAMs, and this would be commensurate with the moist environment. While the severe risk is more established for northern portions of the CWA, the geographic placement of the heaviest rains is a little more uncertain. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tuesday's front will likely be pushed along by the rain-cooled air from Tuesday night's storms, and Wednesday morning should start out more seasonably with temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. The medium-range model guidance shows several protuberances of vorticity aloft moving over our area Wednesday. However, the atmosphere will probably take some time to recuperate from the preceding night's storms, and even with the moist airmass remaining in place it would not be a surprise to spend most of the day Wednesday rain-free. Still, the continued presence of moisture and a conducive southwesterly flow persisting aloft thanks to broad troughing over the western US means that there will be more opportunities for rain and storms throughout the week. Heavy rain potential will continue with precipitable water values repeatedly near or over the 90th percentile for this time of year. Key elements to watch will be any residual boundaries left over by previous rounds of storms, which can be foci for new storm development, and bundles of vorticity aloft moving over the area to enhance certain windows of opportunity for rain. The precise timing and placement of storms will be based on these factors, which will be sensitive to the evolution of each successive period of storms. Based on their depictions of mid-level 700mb vorticity, a few of the medium-range models, including the GFS, ECMWF, and their ensemble suite and AI counterparts suggest a favorable period for rain Thursday. The WPC has up to a Level 2 of 4 (Slight) risk for heavy rain during that window. Another conducive period may take shape this weekend. This timing should be considered with broad brushstrokes, as it's still too early to decipher which areas may see heavier rains and when. However, taken altogether, there could be a gradually increasing potential for flash and riverine flooding as each round of rain saturates grounds further. The bottom line is that an active and wet pattern looks likely for the entirety of South Central Texas through the week. Continue to check back as details get clearer over the coming days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR CIGs, gusty southeasterly winds, and scattered clouds continue through this evening before winds relax a bit and MVFR CIGs return for all I-35 TAF sites by around 04Z. Could even see IFR CIGs by early morning however confidence remains low on this occurring. A line of convection coming from the north is shown by numerous models impacting KAUS and KSAT towards the end of the forecast period, however timing remains uncertain. Added in PROB30s for this time though future packages will need to refine the timing. Additionally, PROB30s will likely be needed for KSSF and eventually KDRT in future forecasts. For KDRT expect VFR CIGs until early morning before MVFR CIGs occur with VFR CIGs returning by the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 90 71 85 / 10 30 80 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 79 90 71 85 / 10 30 70 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 90 70 85 / 10 20 70 60 Burnet Muni Airport 75 86 67 82 / 10 40 80 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 93 71 88 / 20 20 50 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 88 69 83 / 10 40 80 60 Hondo Muni Airport 78 90 70 84 / 10 20 70 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 78 91 71 85 / 10 20 70 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 90 72 85 / 10 20 70 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 91 71 85 / 10 20 70 60 Stinson Muni Airport 79 92 71 86 / 10 10 70 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...CJM  921 FXUS65 KBOI 190002 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 602 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory for the western Magic Valley Tuesday morning. - Lighter winds and drier with a gradual warming trend through Wednesday. - Generally dry with above normal temperatures through the weekend. Potential pattern change early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... Issued 242 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026 The afternoon/evening showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish with sunset, as will the gusty winds. Lighter winds and clear skies overnight allow for possible frost in the western Magic Valley Tuesday morning. There is a spread in forecast low temperatures with a range of 33 to 38 in the Gooding/Jerome/Twin area so coverage could be patchy. Have opted with a Frost Advisory to highlight the potential. Building heights behind the exiting trough will bring a gradual warming trend with high temperatures close to normal by Wednesday. Mountains will see an afternoon cumulus field from daytime instability. Can't rule out a mtn top shower over w-central Idaho mtns (east of McCall- Lowman-Atlanta line) each afternoon, but it would be light with heavier development further north and east. An approaching trough will increase precipitation chances across these areas Wednesday night. Winds settle down Tue/Wed staying below 15 mph for most sites. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Issued 242 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026 Come Thursday, a shortwave embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft will begin to dig into southeastern Idaho. While the better forcing associated with this shortwave will be east of our area, height falls aloft will support isolated showers developing over higher terrain in the West Central and Boise Mountain zones. Following this trough, dry northwest flow will return with higher pressure building in aloft over the Pacific; as a result, a warming trend will set in through the weekend, with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Come Sunday, flow aloft will become more zonal as a Gulf of Alaska low deepens. The exact track of this low is a bit uncertain this far out; however, the grand ensemble shows the indication of troughing moving across our area come early next week (deterministic guidance varies on strength and track). Despite the uncertainty, the signal is there for a pattern change early next week, this will lead to increasing precipitation chances and cooler temperatures (although still leaning above normal) come Monday. With the main jet stream above our area throughout the long-term period, breezy conditions will stick around each afternoon. The windiest conditions of the period will likely come early next week as the low makes it's way into our area. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 600 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026 VFR. Virga/isolated showers over higher terrain before sunset. Surface winds: W-N 5-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt tapering off around sunset, then variable 5-10 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: transitioning from NW to W, 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Virga/isolated showers over foothills before sunset. Surface winds: NW 10-18 kt with gusts around 25 kt, decreasing to W-NW 5-10 kt around sunset. Becoming light and variable by early AM. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for IDZ016. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....NF  729 FXUS64 KSJT 190012 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 712 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The main concern in the short term this afternoon through tomorrow will be the potential for severe storms. For today, the main area of concern will be along our western CWA border, generally north of Sterling City. We have plenty of moisture in place with dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 degrees. As warming takes place today, SB CAPEs in excess of 4000 J/kg are possible this afternoon, as a dryline approaches from the west. There is shortwave energy embedded in southwest flow aloft that could aid in initiation of convection. Deep layer shear is not overly impressive, but with the amount of instability available, that would likely be overcome by any storms that can develop to produce severe weather with the primary concerns being large hail and severe wind gusts. The main problem with this afternoon is that most high resolution models maintain enough convective inhibition through this evening to prevent convection from developing. However, considering the amount of instability available, if storms do develop, they should quickly strengthen to severe levels, so will have at least a low (20%) chance for thunderstorms north of I-20 in the western Big Country. For Tuesday, a cold front will move into the area from the north shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. As this front moves south during the morning hours, heating along and south of the front will allow for strong destabilization, with SB CAPE values again approaching 4000 J/kg. The front, along with an approaching shortwave, is expected to provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms by late morning or early afternoon in our area. Deep layer shear values of 20 to 40 knots, combined with the strong instability will any storms that develop to become severe, with the main hazards being large to very hail and damaging winds. And with the frontal boundary available, tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out. Highs south of the front will be able to warm into the lower 90s, while north of Interstate 20, highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 An active spring like pattern will continue through much of the long term with a persistent upper level southwest flow and a few disturbances moving across our area. Also, the combination of a cold front just south of the area and abundant moisture(PW values 1 to 1.75 inches) will bring a risk of localized flash flooding, especially Wednesday as the WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall across much of the area plus the Northwest Hill Country and southern Heartland Tuesday night. There are medium to high chances of rain for at least a few days in the long term. Also, there is an isolated to scattered severe weather threat(slight risk) for mainly the southern 2/3 of the area Tuesday evening as the cold front moves south and interacts with strong instability and some wind shear. Also, isolated severe storms are possible across the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau on Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds and a very low chance of an isolated tornado. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the upper 70s and 80s, around to slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Breezy southerly to southeasterly winds continue through the evening hours at all sites. CIGs below 3000ft settle in from south to north late this evening into the overnight hours. BR may develop and lower VIS below 3SM overnight into the morning hours across JCT, BBD, and SOA sites. Opted to not include this in the TAF due to low confidence. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 86 63 78 / 10 80 50 50 San Angelo 72 92 63 80 / 0 80 60 50 Junction 73 90 65 82 / 0 50 80 60 Brownwood 72 88 64 80 / 0 70 70 50 Sweetwater 71 87 62 77 / 10 60 40 50 Ozona 71 89 64 82 / 0 50 50 50 Brady 72 88 64 79 / 0 60 60 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...99  795 FXUS65 KGJT 190013 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 613 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures are expected to impact the lower basins of northwest Colorado and northeast Utah Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Freeze highlights are in effect. - Temperatures will start to warm Tuesday onward, finally reaching near-to-above normal levels Thursday and Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 611 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Some snow showers will continue over the eastern Uintas and Park Range but do not expect significant accumulations so dropped them both. Cold temperatures still remain on track overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER: The cold front has finally pushed through most of eastern Utah and western Colorado, with a significantly cooler airmass filling in. Temperatures today will run 15-25 degrees below normal, feeling more like March than May. The widespread rainfall that accompanied the frontal passage is transitioning to a more convective mode this afternoon, although limited instability will keep a lid on thunderstorm development. Look for gusty winds and light to moderate rainfall with showers this afternoon. Snow showers will also be possible at the higher elevations, and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Eastern Uintas and Park and Elkhead ranges through this evening. Activity will taper off this evening as drier air works in under northwesterly flow. This will also lead to skies clearing from west to east, resulting in freeze concerns, discussed below. After a cold start tomorrow, temperatures start to rebound as flow aloft turns southwesterly and warm air advection kicks in. That said, we remain below normal tomorrow and Wednesday, before finally reaching late- May norms on Thursday. Light mountain showers will be possible each afternoon, but otherwise conditions will be quiet and mostly sunny. The next chance for precipitation comes late in the week, as a quick- moving wave clips northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado. FREEZE POTENTIAL: With cold air advection ongoing and skies expected to clear out tonight, freeze potential remains a concern. The coldest conditions will occur on Tuesday morning. The Yampa River Basin and the eastern Uinta Basin are most likely to see sub-freezing temperatures by daybreak tomorrow, though the Yampa Basin is most likely to see a hard freeze. Freeze Warnings are in effect for these zones from midnight tonight through 10AM tomorrow morning. Wednesday morning will also likely see sub-freezing temperatures in the Yampa River Basin, thus a freeze watch has been issued for CO001 and CO002. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 526 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Some showers and midlevel ceilings persist at this hour but precip will continue to drift northeastward this evening and overnight. Ceilings will lift as well though will likely persist for KHDN, KEGE and KASE. Despite that, VFR conditions will remain predominant though some brief MVFR can't be completely ruled out either. A few gusts of 20 to 30 kts will remain possible under and near these showers but should die down after 03Z. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ001-002. Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for COZ001-002. UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ024. && $$ UPDATE...TGJT DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  768 FXUS65 KPUB 190013 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 613 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme fire danger continues across our southern plains through early evening, with southwest winds gusting 45 to 50 mph and humidity values in the single digits. - Heightened travel concerns due to 50-60 mph winds over the mountains and southern portions of the area, with blowing dust over the San Luis Valley and southern plains, and blowing snow over the mountains. - Showers continue across the Pikes Peak region with snow levels dropping down to 6500 feet under the heavier snow showers through this evening. Any accumulations will be light, slushy and brief. - Frost and freezes expected for much of the southeast plains tonight, with the coldest readings across El Paso County - Cooler and wetter weather is expected for all areas through mid week with another drying trend for next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 607 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Across the San Luis Valley, winds have steadily lessened, and are expected to continue this trend heading into the evening. Given this, blowing dust is no longer expected, and the Blowing Dust Advisory that was in place has been allowed to expire on time. Across the far southern plains, the cold front that has been in place just south of Highway 50 through the day has finally surged southward and pushed into New Mexico and the Oklahoma Panhandle. While gusty northerly winds are expected for another few hours, humidity values have greatly increased, with observations reading 45-55% humidity across the region. Given this, the Red Flag Warnings in place across Las Animas and Baca Counties have been cancelled early. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Potent upper trough ejecting across CO is bringing a wide range of weather conditions to southern CO, from low clouds, fog, and rain and snow showers with embedded thunder across the mountains and Pikes Peak region, to strong winds and high fire danger across southern sections of the area. The cold front has been stubborn through the morning but winds across southern Baca county have shifted from the south in the past hour and will get gustier through the afternoon as the upper trough ejects to the northeast and the surface low across southern sections of the area ejects eastward. Still looks like gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with humidity levels dropping below 10 percent. This will bring a period of critical to extreme fire weather conditions before the front drops southward to the southern border by 7 PM and humidity levels increase. Current Red Flag Warnings still look on target. Will need to watch closely for blowing dust which could reduce visibility to under a mile at times near plowed fields or areas with loose soil conditions. Across the San Luis Valley, a brief hit of high winds occurred close to 11 AM which prompted the issuance of a High Wind Warning for southern and central portions of the valley. This occurred as the upper jet moves across. Window for strong winds has passed and High Wind Warnings were taken down around 2 PM. Winds will remain gusty to around 40 mph for a few more hours yet. Dust Storm Warnings were downgraded to Blowing Dust Advisories based on conditions in area webcams. Otherwise, north of the cold front along the Arkansas River, temperatures have stayed cooler as clouds have been slow to erode. Best chance of showers for the Pikes Peak region will be this afternoon through early evening and snow levels could locally drop down to 6500 feet under the heavier convective snow bursts. Any accumulations should remain light, melting as it falls due to the warm ground surface. Some ice pellets or graupel could occur under the convective bursts as well but these should be brief. Then stratus will deepen, lower, and spread back southward behind the cold front through the evening. Upslope against the mountains could cause a narrow ribbon of fog and even drizzle along the lower eastern and southern slopes. Concerns then turn towards freezing temperatures and frost conditions across the plains as temperatures behind the front drop into the 30s. Fortunately, we have some clouds and wind to help keep temperatures up slightly, but up against the higher terrain and northern portions of the plains could see temperatures near or a little below freezing with the potential for some frost if some pockets of clearing occur towards morning. Greatest concern is northern El Paso county where a Freeze Warning has been issued. Have gone with frost advisories elsewhere as temperatures will get close to the freezing mark. This is a conservative Frost Advisory, erring on the side of caution given the late season timing of this event. Hopefully not all this area will receive a widespread frost, but protect tender plants if possible. Tuesday will be a quieter day, starting out cloudy in the morning with clearing skies through late morning and afternoon. Easterly upslope flow on the plains will keep higher dew points pinned up against the mountains, with afternoon heating acting on it to generate some showers and thunderstorms over the mountains which will drift off into the adjacent plains. Instability is not all that great and think embedded thunder will be more isolated in coverage. Some overrunning Tuesday night may keep showers going across the southeast mountains and Pikes Peak region as the next upper trough moves into the Great Basin and weak waves eject to the northeast ahead of it. Overall, no fire weather concerns to note as temperatures will be cooler, humidity values higher, and winds lighter. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A cooler and active weather pattern continues through mid week with a series of upper troughs moving across CO. The first one moves across on Wednesday. A little better instability may be present for Wednesday over the mountains, but dew point return is still modest in some models as they increase into the 40s across the plains in the NAM but into the low 50s in the GFS. CIN across the plains should keep it stable with showers and thunderstorms dissipating as they move eastward across the plains, though another round of overrunning may spread some showers across the plains Wednesday night. Thursday could be a more widespread severe weather day for the southeast mountains and plains as southerly return flow advects 50 dew points back into the plains. CAPE could increase to over 1000 J/kg with deep layer shears around 40 kts. We may also have some good forcing as a trough drops in from the northwest in the afternoon. Will have to watch this day closely for severe thunderstorm potential across the plains, but at least the higher humidity values should keep critical fire weather conditions at bay. Friday will be cooler and perhaps more stable behind the front with afternoon showers and thunderstorms confined to the mountains and along the surface front to the south. Warmer and drier weather returns next weekend with at least some isolated thunderstorms possible over and near the mountains both days. -KT && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected at the start of this TAF period and tomorrow afternoon. Overnight tonight, MVFR to IFR conditions are expected as clouds lower over both sites, especially KCOS. For winds, gusty winds will persist into the evening, though will start to quickly lessen in magnitude overnight, with winds at and less than 10 knots. Heading into tomorrow afternoon, a slight uptick in winds is anticipated to around 10-13 knots. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through this TAF period, though light rain or drizzle can't be ruled out for KCOS tonight. KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Looking at winds, gusty winds will persist into the evening, though will start to quickly lessen in magnitude overnight, with winds less than 10 knots. Winds will start to increase again tomorrow afternoon as diurnal mixing develops. Otherwise, periods of mid to high level clouds are anticipated this evening and tomorrow afternoon, with dry conditions through this TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Critical fire weather conditions will continue into the early evening across Las Animas and Baca counties. Gusts up to 50 mph and critically low humidity values will lead to critical to extreme fire weather conditions. The cold front will push back into the southern CO/NM/OK border areas towards 7 PM which will bring a sharp wind shift from the north with gusts up to 40 mph. But this will also bring an increase in humidity levels. Current Red Flag Warnings continue until 8 PM to account for the wind shift and any slight delay in humidity recovery. It is possible these may be able to be cancelled sooner if the frontal passage and humidity recovery is quicker. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ084. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ085>089-094>096. && $$ UPDATE...SIMCOE SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...SIMCOE FIRE WEATHER...KT  304 FXUS62 KGSP 190023 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 823 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the recent 00Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A summer-like pattern will continue through mid-week, with above normal temperatures. Chances for mountain diurnal convection increase Wednesday as a front approaches. 2. A cold front will bring better rain chances Thursday into the weekend but with only light rainfall amounts expected, any drought relief will be limited. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: A summer-like pattern will continue through mid-week, with above normal temperatures. Chances for mountain diurnal convection increase Wednesday as a front approaches. An upper level ridge will persist along the East Coast, with a Bermuda high supporting persistent southerly low level flow through mid-week. Despite the southerly flow, profiles will remain somewhat dry until later Wednesday, with surface dewpoints forecast to mix out into the 50s again Tue afternoon. As such, diurnal instability will be muted, and very little-to-no diurnal convection is anticipated through Tue evening. Temperatures will otherwise remain 6-8 degrees above climo through Wed. By late Wednesday, the ridge will begin to weaken as a strong short wave trough passes through eastern Canada and New England. The leading edge of an attendant/weak frontal zone is forecast to approach the southern Appalachians by late Wed afternoon...introducing sufficient convergence and pooling moisture to enhance diurnal convective chances across the mountains. In fact...likely PoPs are forecast for much of the NC mountains by 00Z Thu. Shear parameters will remain quite weak across our area, and instability is forecast to be fairly modest, so the threat for severe storms will be very low. Key message 2: A cold front will bring better rain chances Thursday into the weekend but with only light rainfall amounts expected, any drought relief will be limited. A cold front will track across the forecast area Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning before stalling over the Carolinas on Friday. The front will then reactivate as a warm front and lift northward over the weekend, stalling over the Ohio Valley/Mid- Atlantic through early next week. This front will bring better rain chances than we have seen in a while but it appears that an upper ridge could build back over the Southeast faster than anticipated this weekend into early next week which could act to suppress shower and thunderstorm activity. Thus, confidence on PoPs this weekend remains low. We should get a better idea on PoPs once high-res guidance becomes available later in the week. The main change from the previous forecast is that QPF has trended lower this forecast cycle, with the NBM now showing most locations seeing 1" or less of rainfall Thursday into the weekend. There still remains the potential for some locally higher rainfall amounts >1" along the NC/TN border and along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Although any rain will be beneficial, these amounts will not do much to improve the ongoing drought. Any severe potential continues to look low through the period. Above normal highs stick around on Thursday before below normal highs return briefly on Friday as cold air damming develops behind the front. The 06Z GFS is trending a bit stronger regarding the wedge so afternoon temps on Friday may trend cooler if this trend continues. CAD lingers through the first half of Saturday before eroding (per the 06Z GFS) so highs on Saturday should end up near normal to just above normal. Highs will end up a few degrees above normal on both Sunday and Monday. Lows each night will remain a few to several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR to remain in place through the period. There's a very small chance of MVFR (or even brief IFR) ceilings before dawn at KCLT as a plume of low-level moisture arrives from the south, but it appears more likely that brief MVFR-level FEW/SCT coverage will arrive instead, if the plume makes it that far north at all. Otherwise...FEW/SKC expected through the period, with light winds overnight tonight and a steady 5-10kt SW wind picking back up on Tuesday. Outlook: VFR to persist through mid-week, except perhaps in mountain valleys, where patchy morning fog/low stratus may develop each morning. Increasing moisture will bring a more active pattern for mainly diurnal convection beginning late Wednesday, continuing through the end of the week. The potential for overnight fog/low clouds will increase as well. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ AR/JDL/MPR  290 FXUS66 KSGX 190023 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 523 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Night and morning low clouds and fog will be present each day through the forecast period along the coast for the first half of the week and into portions of the valleys towards the end of the week. High temperatures will be below average in the deserts today and tomorrow, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above average west of the mountains for the first half of the week. Minor fluctuations in temperatures for Thursday through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Weak offshore flow through Wednesday will keep low clouds out of the inland valleys but won't be strong enough to keep coastal areas clear of low clouds overnight and in the mornings. It should help with more efficient clearing in the afternoons through Wednesday. A noticeable warming expected today compared to yesterday with the inland valleys expected to be 8 to 15 degrees warmer. An additional 3 to 7 degrees of warming is expected on Tuesday from the coast to the deserts, with continued warming inland Wednesday. The marine layer is expected to deepen Wednesday night into Thursday, which will push low clouds and fog into the inland valleys. A deeper marine layer is expected to be maintained through the weekend. There will be slight day-to-day differences in high temperatures for Thursday through next weekend with high temperatures a few to around 5 degrees above average. && .AVIATION... 190000Z...Coast/Valleys...Aside from a few sparsely isolated cumulus, clear skies and VFR conditions prevail across the coastal basin. Low clouds may return this evening (20-40% chance) to coastal areas with the highest chances in coastal San Diego County between 13-17Z. If low clouds do develop, bases would be AOA 1500ft MSL. Mountains/Deserts...Gusty winds have largely subsided this evening, though breezy northerly/easterly offshore winds pick back up after 18z Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR prevailing through the period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...CO AVIATION/MARINE...Munyan  331 FXUS62 KCAE 190024 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 824 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain chances for late this week and this weekend continue although coverage could be lower than blended guidance indicates. Aviation discussion updated for 18Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Above normal temperatures likely through mid-week. - 2. Rain chances increase late week and into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Above normal temperatures likely through mid- week. Above normal temperatures likely through Thursday with highs in the low to mid 90s expected and no or very little convective coverage each afternoon. PWAT values will be slightly below to around normal through Wednesday so Heat Index values will not rise to advisory thresholds. However, early season heat can contribute to an increased risk of heat-related illness. Key Message 2: Rain chances increase late week and into this weekend. On average, model guidance shifts high pressure eastward late this week, leading to increasing moisture over the Southeast from Thursday through Memorial Day weekend. PWAT values rise to just above normal for the season. However geopotential heights from the NAEFS are also around normal. This would point to a seasonal setup for scattered afternoon convection, possibly enhanced to our north and west with shortwave energy riding over the ridge. PoPs from blended guidance show values above what are climatologically favored and could be too high given the synoptic set up. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected through much of the forecast period with the exception of brief restrictions possible Tuesday morning. Diurnal cumulus clouds continue to diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Southerly winds around 5 to 8 knots will gradually become light and variable to calm by 06z. Similar to previous nights, abundant low level moisture will provide favorable conditions for possible brief predawn fog/stratus. Confidence is limited however with mixed signals in the guidance so will only include in a tempo group for now all terminals, though AGS may have prevailing MVFR vsbys after 08-09z. Winds should pick back up by mid morning from the south around 5 to 7 knots with mainly diurnal cumulus clouds again. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased moisture may result in brief restrictions at the terminals due to low clouds and/or fog each day this week. Rain chances increase towards the end of the week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJR AVIATION...23  405 FXUS63 KLSX 190026 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 726 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into the evening with heavy rainfall in some locations potentially leading to flash flooding. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the early morning hours of Tuesday with the main hazards being damaging winds, large hail, and a brief tornado or two. - Another round of thunderstorms are possible along a cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary threats. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Most of east-central Missouri and along I-70 in western Illinois have observed multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms today. An MCV has been the impetus for this redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening. It has also finally dislodged the training showers and thunderstorms with convection approaching the Mississippi River and rainfall coming to an end behind. Highest convective rates are currently just southwest of St. Louis, with rainfall totals now averaging 2 to 4 inches, locally 4 to 5 inches, across the Flood Watch. There is also a threat for a quick spin up tornado or two along with mostly sub- severe hail. The weak tornado threat is due to an outflow that stalled near Crawford to Washington to St. Francois Counties. We have also had a few storms with elevated cores just below severe limits. This is likely due to the ~7 degrees C/km mid-level lapse rates. Convection will clear the area by 10 PM. The end of the showers and thunderstorms will be short lived though as another line of showers and thunderstorms has already formed across central and eastern Kansas. This line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly move east overnight and weaken across central Missouri. Damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two will be the primary threats. How quickly the line weakens remains the primary question. The overall thinking is that the line will weak substantially by the time it reaches I-70 near Columbia, MO. The weakening of the line is due to the displacement of the showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front. The surface cold front will likely be just northwest of Columbia, MO Tuesday morning and stall near a Columbia, MO to Quincy, IL line through mid-afternoon. Behind the cold front, the chance of precipitation and severe weather is low, while ahead of the cold front another round of showers and thunderstorms appear likely. Surface based CAPE is forecast to be in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range with around 30 to 40 kt of SFC to 6 km shear. The best shear looks to be offset from the best instability, or behind the surface cold front. Hodographs due show some cyclonic curvature in the lowest levels, but it is weak. Most of the forcing will also have to come from the surface cold front. Given the above, the environment does appear to br supportive for some supercell development, with some storm splitting possible. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has the region southeast of Columbia, MO to Havana, IL in a slight risk for severe storms. Damaging wind gusts and large hail appear to be the primary threat. After the final round of showers and thunderstorms moves across the area Tuesday evening, storm total rainfall amounts (from Monday morning to Tuesday evening) of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts of 6 to 8 inches appear likely. As such, have expanded the flood watch until Tuesday afternoon. These amounts of rainfall will result in some flash flooding. Residents should monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to seek higher ground if a Flash Flood Warning is issued for your area. BAH && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A surface cold front will be located across southern Missouri Wednesday with most of the region expected to be seasonably cool and dry. The one exception to this is across Reynolds, Iron and Madison counties were another round of thunderstorms will be possible close to the frontal boundary. Thursday into Friday, another mid-level wave will be located over the Mountain West with low level flow out of the southwest. As this occurs, the cold front will wash out with temperatures rising along with a return of showers and thunderstorms. The warm up will then persist into the weekend and early next week as another wave approaches from the west. This warming trend is supported by both the LREF and NBM IQRs. Looking at global ensemble guidance, a general building of mid-level heights is forecast to start this weekend across the Eastern United States and then retrograde west next week. BAH && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The shortwave that was over Arkansas this morning is currently over eastern Missouri with widespread convection ongoing over the St. Louis terminals. The back edge of the storms are approaching from the west, with a temporary end to the thunderstorms expected at all terminals by 8 PM. Another line of showers and thunderstorms (currently in central Kansas) is then forecast to progress into central Missouri early Tuesday morning. Now that the line has formed, have gone ahead and updated the TAFs with the latest thinking of arrival. KUIN: High confidence that thunderstorms will make it Tuesday morning between 6 and 9z. KCOU/ KJEF: High confidence that showers will make it and moderate confidence that thunder will be observed. Arrival time between 6 and 9z. KSTL/ KSUS/ KCPS: Moderate confidence that showers will make it and low confidence that thunder will be observed. Arrival time between 7 and 10z. By late morning, showers from the decaying line that originated from Kansas will be mostly dissipated. A cold front will then cross KUIN with cigs falling to MVFR/ borderline IFR. The front will then cross or be just north of KCOU and KJEF. On the cool side of the boundary expect sub- VFR cigs. For the St. Louis terminals, the thinking is the cold front will hold northwest of the area until late Tuesday afternoon. Out ahead of the cold front, another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will occur. The lack of confidence is on the location of the cold front and the aforementioned convection. BAH && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Audrain MO-Boone MO- Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Bond IL-Calhoun IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX  658 FXUS61 KRLX 190030 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 830 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast Discussion update. 216 PM update... Marginal risk for severe for Tuesday has been expanded slightly to the east. Frontal timing for Wednesday has slowed a little, slightly increasing potential for stronger storms. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Unseasonably hot conditions will continue through Tuesday, with afternoon temperatures peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations. 2.) Isolated pulse thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, primarily over the Northeast Mountains. With high downdraft CAPE, collapsing precipitation cores could produce some localized gusty winds. Similar conditions possible tomorrow near the Ohio River in the afternoon with additional thunder chances with a decaying convective complex arriving overnight. 3.) A cold front brings widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. The front stalls to the south and returns as a warm front, setting up a wet, unsettled pattern into the long weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A persistent Bermuda high remains anchored off the Carolina coast promoted subsidence and unseasonably hot conditions across the region. Surface observations at this hour show temperatures already in the mid 80s to 90 degrees across the Metro Valley and southeast Ohio. Afternoon highs will peak in the low to mid 90s today and again on Tuesday, running 10 to 15 degrees above normal daytime highs for this time of year. KEY MESSAGE 2... Visible satellite imagery and surface observations early this afternoon show isolated thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain with an elevated heat source above any weak capping. Analysis of vertical profiles reveal deep layer shear is exceedingly weak, generally under 15KTs. This kinematic profile strongly favors disorganized, pulse-type multicellular convection. While the overall severe threat is low, DCAPE values nearing 1000J/kg combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat for locally gusty downburst winds as precipitation cores collapse. Some isolated tree damage is possible beneath any more robust core collapses. Tuesday will feature another hot afternoon with isolated pop-up showers or thunderstorms possible across the middle Ohio Valley. By Tuesday night, a decaying convective complex is forecast to approach from the west ahead of an advancing cold front although confidence in exact eastern extent is low. Instability will be weakening as any remnants approach the Ohio River, but a marginal threat for gusty winds could persist. KEY MESSAGE 3... A cold front will sweep through the region on Wednesday, providing much needed relief from the heat but bringing showers and thunderstorms. There remains some uncertainty regarding the exact timing of the frontal passage with some guidance showing a slowing trend. A slower frontal passage would allows for greater diurnal destabilization ahead of it; MLCAPE could recover sufficiently to introduce a low-end severe threat, currently none is depicted with the day 3 SPC outlook. Following a brief mainly dry period on Thursday, the frontal boundary will drift back to the north as a warm front, locking the region into an unsettled pattern through at least Sunday. Severe potential appears low through the weekend due to fairly weak flow through the column, but persistent southwesterly flow will continue to transport deep moisture from the Gulf into the region. Given recent very dry ground conditions any rainfall will be largely beneficial. Couldn't rule out some very localized water issues with repetitive slow moving heavy downpours should they hit the same location multiple times aswe head into the weekend, but the risk appears low. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread VFR conditions will largely prevail through this TAF period (until 00Z Wednesday). Scattered mid/upper level clouds are expected tonight amid dry conditions. Some very patchy river valley fog cannot entirely be ruled out across eastern/southern WV, potentially affecting EKN, although confidence in this occurring is quite low. Mainly dry conditions then continue during the day on Tuesday, with just the potential for a few ISOLD afternoon/evening showers or storms across the Mid-Ohio Valley. A FEW/SCT (035-050) Cu field is expected to develop late Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Calm or very light southerly flow is expected tonight, with southwest flow during the day on Tuesday. Breezes of 15-25 kts are expected at times from late morning onward, especially central/north. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR or worse restrictions could occur at EKN later tonight if fog development is more than expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 05/19/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... Patchy IFR is possible in convection Wednesday through the weekend. && .Climate... Unseasonably warm conditions continue through Tuesday with some daily record highs potentially being challenged. Forecast / Record High Temperatures --------------------------------------- Mon, 5/18 | Tue, 5/19 | --------------------------------------- CRW | 92 / 92 (1982) | 92 / 95 (1931) | HTS | 92 / 92 (1962) | 91 / 92 (1996) | CKB | 91 / 92 (1962) | 90 / 90 (1959) | PKB | 91 / 95 (1962) | 91 / 90 (1964) | BKW | 86 / 87 (1996) | 87 / 89 (1996) | EKN | 87 / 89 (1911) | 87 / 93 (1996) | --------------------------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP AVIATION...GW CLIMATE...JP  907 FXUS62 KTAE 190033 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 833 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 833 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Hot temperatures are expected through mid week. There is a high chance of highs at or above 90 across the area with the Florida Big Bend having a low chance of highs at or above 95. The heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without cooling/hydration. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through the next few days with coverage increasing late week into the weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any stronger storms that develop. && .UPDATE... Issued at 833 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 No updates to the forecast this evening. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Sunday) Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Scattered showers and storms are beginning to develop over the Florida Panhandle early this afternoon. This should continue for the remainder of the day over mainly inland parts of the Panhandle into portions of southeast Alabama. Some of the storms this afternoon could produce strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph, locally heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. These will fade during the early to mid part of the evening with a warm and muggy night ahead. Lows area-wide will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday through Thursday, there will be less coverage of showers and storms overall as strong ridging builds overhead and PWATs decrease a bit. Rain chances are at most around 20-30% each day. It will be very hot, however, by May standards. Highs will be in the low to potentially mid 90s for much of the area over the next 3 days with some areas seeing heat index values nearing 100 for the first time this year. This level of heat could affect those who are sensitive to heat, such as the elderly, those with chronic health conditions, or those without access to adequate cooling or hydration. By late in the week into the weekend, the ridging will begin to shift a little bit more to the east as troughing nudges more into the Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. This will gradually pull in more moisture to our area with rain chances increasing heading into the holiday weekend. This would primarily be an increased chance of afternoon showers and storms. High temperatures will come back down to the upper 80s to lower 90s, but with the increased humidity, heat index values will still remain in the mid 90s to low && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Some low stratus may develop near VLD and ABY in the morning hours near sunrise as easterly flow develops, but confidence is a bit on the lower side. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Low TSRA chances inhibit mention in the TAF but we can't rule out a pop up shower or storm on Tuesday from 20z-00z at ECP. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continue over the next several days. The highest winds will generally be tonight with some areas approaching cautionary levels, especially over Apalachee Bay. Otherwise, tranquil boating conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Generally southeasterly transport winds around 10 mph will continue each day, though the afternoon sea breeze will turn winds more southerly to southwesterly as it passes through. Dispersions will be good each day across the area. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible along the afternoon sea breeze. Some of these storms may produce gusty, erratic winds as well as frequent lightning strikes. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through the next week. These could produce locally heavy downpours, which may lead to some nuisance flooding, mainly in urban or poor drainage areas. However, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area. While the rain is beneficial, significant improvement in drought conditions is not expected. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 91 72 92 / 0 10 10 20 Panama City 71 87 71 87 / 0 10 0 20 Dothan 67 89 69 90 / 10 0 10 30 Albany 67 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 20 Valdosta 66 91 67 92 / 0 10 0 10 Cross City 69 93 68 94 / 0 40 10 20 Apalachicola 74 84 74 84 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for FLZ112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young  039 FXUS61 KPHI 190036 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 836 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and more humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. 2. A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, then much cooler temperatures by the end of this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and more humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. A strong upper-level ridge centered off the Southeast U.S. coast will remain in place through late Tuesday before it starts to flatten on its northwest side during Wednesday. This along with surface high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic will drive a south to southwest flow of early season (anomalous) heat across our area into Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to peak into the 90s for many areas again Tuesday and Wednesday, except cooler along the coasts and the higher terrain. While the surface dew points will likely mix out some during peak heating due to the drier ground and boundary layer (low evapotranspiration), this stretch of early season heat, with record breaking high temperatures probable, will have potentially greater impacts. For this reason, opted to expand the Heat Advisory to the areas where the heat index criteria starts at 100F (the urban I-95 corridor criteria starts at 96F through June). While it will probably fall a little short for some areas, the potential greater impacts (lack of acclimation) is driving our decision. Where the wind turns more from the south and especially southeast will result in quite a bit of cooling due to the chilly ocean and therefore did not include the immediate coastal zones in the Heat Advisory. Peak heat indices will be 95 to nearing 100 degrees, with the core of the heat shifting a bit more south and east during Wednesday as a strong cold front starts to arrive. Based on this, portions of the Heat Advisory for areas farther north and west of I-95 only goes through Tuesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will depend on how quickly cloud cover arrives along with showers and some thunderstorms. Either way, we will have a high launching pad for temperatures to start Wednesday and it will still be rather hot. Temperatures at night will be quite warm by mid May standards. Lows will only be in the mid 60s to low 70s, which will challenge daily warmest low temperature records for May 19th. As a side note, isolated convection developed earlier over the central Applachians and this activity has moved to the north and northeast this evening. We still think that given the presence of the ridge farther east, the chance for any of this to make it to parts of our far western zones this evening is very low. We'll continue with a dry forecast. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, then much cooler temperatures by the end of this week. As mentioned above, a cold front will approach the area Wednesday and bring an end to the stretch of above normal temperatures by Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this front as it passes through the region. Recent guidance trends continue to show the front moving through during the second half of Wednesday into Wednesday night. Given this timing, there is the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. There remains uncertainty in the more specific details and some timing variations remain. Regarding the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, the cold front will be moving into an air mass that will feature plenty of instability. The better shear and forcing look to be to our north, but bulk shearvalues will be supportive of some storm organization along with some supportive lapse rates. All of this said, the potential is there for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. The primary concerns with any strong to severe thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. General rainfall accumulation from this frontal passage looks around 0.25" or less. However, given this convection and PWAT values reaching to 1.5-2.0", localized higher amounts are certainly possible with any heavier pockets of rain. As the front sinks south into Thursday morning, it then looks to linger near or just south of the area through the remainder of the day Thursday. This will lead to the potential for more rain showers, particularly for our southeastern zones. An unsettled pattern looks to continue to take shape for Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. South to southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. High confidence. Tuesday...VFR. Southwesterly winds 5-8 knots increasing to 10-15 knots, with some afternoon gusts up to 20 knots. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday...Sub-VFR with rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Rain showers may continue into Thursday. Friday through Saturday...Sub-VFR with rain showers moving through. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory continues for the New Jersey Atlantic coastal waters for Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. Southerly flow will increase tonight and especially during Tuesday. A hot air mass will be moving over the chilly water and this vertical mixing will be reduced, however given the strength of the flow there should be a period of wind gusts to around 25 knots and seas building to about 5 feet. It looks to be more marginal for the Delaware Atlantic coastal waters and therefore held off on issuing an advisory. For Delaware Bay, the conditions should continue to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Tuesday night. Outlook... Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Seas lessen by Wednesday morning but elevated winds out of the southwest remain through the day Wednesday with gusts near 20-25 kt. Rain showers move in Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. There is also the potential for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night. Thursday...Conditions expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria but showers may linger. Friday through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected as seas reach 4-6 feet. There is the chance for some rain showers. Rip Currents... On Tuesday, south to southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 8 seconds. As a result there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches. Depending on the exact direction of the winds, there is the potential for a HIGH risk for rip currents at the Jersey Shore. On Wednesday, south to southwest winds will be a bit lighter, and winds look to be more paralel to the shores. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 6 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and lift threatning rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW ris for Delaware Beaches. Will continue to note that while surface temperatures inland will be in the mid to upper 90s Tuesday and inthe low to mid 90s on Wednesday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Near record breaking temperatures are forecast from through Wednesday. High temperatures Tuesday and low temperatures Wednesday morning could challenge monthly all time records for May. Records for our climate sites are listed below: Monthly Record High Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 97/May 19, 1962 AC Airport (ACY) 99/May 29, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 95/May 31, 1895 & May 23, 1925 Georgetown (GED) 98/May 28, 1991 Mount Pocono (MPO) 94/May 22, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 97/May 30 & 31, 1991 Reading (RDG) 97/May 20, 1996 Trenton (TTN) 99/May 23, 1911 & May 31, 1986 Wilmington (ILG) 98/May 10, 1895 & May 30, 1895 Monthly Record Warmest Low Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 71/May 31, 1975, May 28 & 31, 1991 AC Airport (ACY) 73/May 24, 2004 & May 19, 2017 AC Marina (55N) 73/May 30 & 31, 1987, & May 31, 1991 Georgetown (GED) 74/May 23, 1953 & May 20, 2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 68/May 21, 1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 78/May 31, 1895 Reading (RDG) 72/May 28 & 31, 1939, & May 31, 1991 Trenton (TTN) 75/May 31, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 75/May 30, 1895 Record High Temperatures May 18 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 96/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 93/1987 AC Marina (55N) 90/1987 Georgetown (GED) 91/1974 (new record) Mount Pocono (MPO) 87/1962 (new record) Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 (new record) Reading (RDG) 96/1962 (tie record) Trenton (TTN) 96/1986 Wilmington (ILG) 94/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 18 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 70/2017 AC Marina (55N) 66/2017 Georgetown (GED) 72/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/2017 Philadelphia (PHL) 72/2017 Reading (RDG) 67/1900, 1943, & 2017 Trenton (TTN) 71/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 72/2017 Record High Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 97/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1962 AC Marina (55N) 92/1998 Georgetown (GED) 96/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 96/1962 Reading (RDG) 96/1962 Trenton (TTN) 96/1962 Wilmington (ILG) 95/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 73/2017 AC Marina (55N) 68/1998 Georgetown (GED) 73/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 60/1943 Philadelphia (PHL) 74/1877 Reading (RDG) 68/1962 Trenton (TTN) 70/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2017 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996 AC Marina (55N) 69/1996 Georgetown (GED)74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ070-071-102-104- 106. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ060>062-101-103- 105. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ060>062- 070-071-101>106. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ012-013-015- 017>020-027. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001- 007>010-012-015-017>019. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ007>010. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ012>021-026-027. DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for ANZ450>453. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gorse/Guzzo AVIATION...Gorse/Guzzo/OHara MARINE...Gorse/Guzzo/MPS  234 FXUS66 KLOX 190041 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 541 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS...18/539 PM. Warmer temperatures are expected this week with some locally breezy Santa Ana winds at times through Tuesday morning. The warmest day will be Wednesday with slow cooling the rest of the week along with a return of night and morning low clouds and fog. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...18/1234 PM. Another offshore push (although slightly weaker) is expected to develop tonight through Tuesday afternoon with wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range across the mountains, and 15-30 mph across the valleys and potentially the eastern edge of the Oxnard Plain. This mornings onshore push surfaced across the valleys and even some coastal areas. The Sandy Fire broke out this morning in Simi Valley and quickly burned through grassy hills due to gusty northeast Santa Ana winds. Even with slightly weaker winds, there again is an elevated threat for fire weather conditions tomorrow thanks in part to a prolonged warm and dry period. Winds will shift onshore Tuesday afternoon. Onshore flow will become more prominent Wednesday, increasing Thursday. Not expecting any marine layer coverage again until possibly late Tuesday through Wednesday, but more likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning as onshore flow becomes more pronounced. There is a very small chance that southern LA County, specifically the Long Beach area, sees low clouds and fog late tonight into Tuesday morning. Expecting all coastal areas and even some lower valleys to become entrenched in marine layer cloud coverage by Thursday night into Friday morning. High temperatures will increase 3-7 degrees tomorrow, and another degree or two in most areas Wednesday. By Wednesday, highs in the mid to high 80s will be common across coastal and interior valleys, with low 70s to low 80s common across coastal areas. A cooling trend begins Thursday on the coastal side of the mountains, while the interior will continue to warm a few degrees. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...18/1234 PM. A fairly quiet pattern will continue through the remainder of the forecast period, with weak winds aloft. Aside from a slight decrease in temperatures Friday and possibly Saturday, there will be little change in sensible weather day-to-day. Widespread temperatures in the 70s to low 80s will be common across coastal valleys and basins, slightly cooler at the immediate coasts with mid 60s to low 70s likely. Inland valleys will see highs reach the mid to upper 80s, with low 90s possible, especially Friday. A more robust marine layer is likely to develop each night through morning, with some coastal areas struggling to clear each day. Marine layer clouds will try to move into some of the coastal valleys by this weekend, as onshore flow increases into the weekend. Onshore flow will then stay relatively steady through Monday. Moderate southwest winds across the Antelope Valley and foothills by this weekend, which would lead to elevated fire weather concerns each afternoon in the far interior. && .AVIATION...19/0038Z. At 1633Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep, with an inversion up to 2600 ft and a maximum temperature of 19 C. Moderate to high confidence in TAF package. Wind speeds may be off by up to 5 kts during peak winds, and wind shift may be off by 1 hour. There is a chance of a few hours of MVFR conds at KSMO (40%), KOXR (20%), KSBA/KSMX(15%), and KCMA/KBUR/KVNY (10%) between 10Z-16Z Tue. There is a 25% of no flight cat restriction developing at KLAX and KLGB. KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 06Z Tuesday. Moderate chance of CIGs between OVC010-020 from 10Z-16Z Tuesday, with a 25% chance of no flight cat restriction developing through the period. The east wind component is expected to be 4 kt or lower. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Wind speeds may be off by up to 5 kts during peak winds, and wind shift may be off by 1 hour. There is a 10% chance of a few hours of OVC008-020 cigs from 10Z-16Z Tue. && .MARINE...18/123 PM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will linger through tonight. For Tuesday through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. From this afternoon through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Lewis AVIATION...Schoenfeld MARINE...Black SYNOPSIS...LP/MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  416 FXAK68 PAFC 190045 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 445 PM AKDT Mon May 18 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Thursday)... The key message of the forecast for the next few days is: expect more of the same, with a persistent cool, cloudy, and windy pattern (and wet in some areas). Starting with the analysis, a high amplitude trough and large vertically stacked low are centered over the Bering Sea. Southern AK is right at the exit of the trough, with fast moving features ejecting out of the trough and northward across mainland AK. A short-wave trough over the western Gulf is elongating and weakening as it approaches Southcentral this afternoon. This is producing light intermittent rain along the coast, but expect rain to become steadier as the trough nears this evening. Meanwhile, mostly cloudy skies prevail across inland areas of Southcentral, with a few showers driven by weak surface-based instability. A surface ridge along the Gulf coast is building inland as a weak trough approaches, leading to another day of gusty southeasterly gap winds. Looking upstream, a compact vertically stacked low is crossing the Alaska Peninsula into Bristol Bay, with a frontal system and associated wind and rain tracking toward Kodiak Island and the western Gulf. As the low continues to Southwest AK tonight, a trailing short-wave and the surface frontal system will lift northward across the western Gulf tonight and to Southcentral tomorrow. This will bring steadier and heavier rain to the coast. Strong low level southeasterly flow will become a bit more southerly as the short-wave lifts northward across Southcentral tomorrow. Thus, downslope flow will weaken and there could be a brief period of light rain from the western Kenai to Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley tomorrow morning. There is higher confidence in steady rain overspreading the Susitna Valley Tuesday morning. Inland areas of Southcentral will dry out later in the day Tuesday. By this point in time the long-wave trough will have shifted over mainland AK. A steady stream of short-waves will maintain rain along the Gulf coast and Prince William Sound. A weak surface low will track out of the Pacific and across the Gulf Tuesday night through Wednesday as another stronger short-wave crosses Southcentral. While this has looked like a no-doubter for continued rain along the coast, models have trended wetter across all of Southcentral for Wednesday. The best corridor of rain looks to be from Prince William Sound to the Copper River Valley, though light rain could extend all the way west to the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the Mat-Su. Low level flow will lighten ahead of the surface low, so upslope/downslope will not be a factor in the rain forecast. Southcentral will dry out Wednesday night, but a new Bering low will send a frontal system toward Kodiak and the western Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday, as the active weather pattern continues. -SEB && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... The deep upper-level trough and vertically stacked low over the Bering continues to be the dominant weather feature and driver of the overall weather pattern for much of the region. A stout jet streak embedded in a zonal jet south of the Aleutian Chain, combined with a vigorous upper-level shortwave just south of the eastern Aleutians. These features are driving the dynamics responsible for the rapid development of a gale-force surface low getting ready to cross the Alaska Peninsula just east of Cold Bay this afternoon. This low will continue to track into western Bristol Bay tonight, moving onshore near Togiak overnight and into the Y-K Delta Tuesday morning, weakening rapidly as it races away from the jet and loses upper-level support. Conditions will deteriorate overnight along coastal and across interior Bristol Bay as rain and gusty easterly winds develop out ahead of the surface low. In its wake, the rain will become more showery as winds shift and become gusty out of the south with these showers and gusty winds moving into the Y-K Delta through Tuesday along with the low. The aforementioned vertically stacked low will redevelop southwest of the Pribilofs on Tuesday as another upper-level shortwave deepens over the Bering Sea. This feature will extend a cold front across the eastern Bering, lifting toward the southwest coast by late Tuesday with another round of gusty southerly winds and rain showers. The northeasterly jog of these features is in response to a slight amplification of the longwave pattern as a transient ridge builds over the western half of the Aleutians and a new surface low develops well south of Attu, at the triple point of an occluded Kamchatka Low. This new low will moves eastward, along the Pacific side of the Aleutians, with its front moving over the Adak and Atka by early Wednesday morning. This low is expected to deepen to a sub 980mb gale-force low by Wednesday morning as it moves toward Atka, likely moving over the southern Bering just east of town late Wednesday. As its front tracks east, expect strong southerly winds along the warm front, with the potential for westerly storm-force gusts wrapping underneath the low. The front will then reach the Southwest coast by Wednesday night with the front and parent low continuing to track northeast and weakening through Thursday. -TM && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... A broad upper level low anchored over the Bering Sea looks to continue to remain in place through the long term. Several shortwaves rotating around this low across the western Bering, North Pacific, and into the Gulf will continue to support the active pattern and unsettled conditions across much of southern Alaska through this weekend. Models are in good agreement to begin the long term period as the late week low in the eastern Bering pushes inland into Southwest Alaska, spreading rain chances across much of the region from the Gulf into Interior Southwest and Southcentral heading into the weekend. This system will be quickly followed by a series of two subsequent low pressure systems lifting out of the North Pacific, with the first being this weekend and the second early next week. Models begin to slightly differ on the exact timing and northward progression of each of these lows, but the ensemble mean consensus generally has the lows tracking south and along the Aleutian Chain and into the Gulf. Elevated winds accompanied by light to moderate rainfall with each system can be expected along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula before pushing into the Gulf, with the heaviest precipitation expected along the immediate Gulf coast. && .AVIATION... PANC...As a front moves through the Gulf of Alaska the next 36 hours, rain showers at the terminal are likely from 15Z to 19Z Tuesday. Gusty southeasterly winds are expected to continue through most of this time too with wind gusts ranging from 30 to 35 knots into 15Z Tuesday. && $$  884 FXUS64 KHGX 190054 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 754 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, breezy, and muggy conditions will continue for the next several days. - Multiple rounds of showers/storms expected beginning late Tuesday through the end of the work week. A few storms could be strong to severe and multiple rounds of rainfall could lead to minor/street flooding. - Elevated winds, seas, and rip current risk in the bay/Gulf waters and beaches through at least midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 BLUF: The weather pattern begins to change this week with multiple chances for rain and storms continuing well into the Memorial Day weekend. Localized heavy rain and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible. Remain weather aware this week for the latest forecast updates and make sure you have multiple ways to receive alerts. A warm and muggy start to the workweek with mostly cloudy skies and breezy southerly winds. A few showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon despite a strong 700:850 mb capping inversion. Strong moisture transport along with a decent LLJ will be enough to support this activity this afternoon and evening. A warm and muggy night is anticipated with lows in the upper 70s to near 80s. A deep longwave trough deepening over the Rockies will continue to eject multiple impulses of energy along the southwest flow aloft. This parade of disturbances will move through Southeast Texas while at the surface, a frontal boundary will attempt to sag southward into north-central TX before stalling somewhere between the Dallas/Fort Worth area and the Brazos Valley region through the end of the week. Total rainfall amounts will strongly depend on where this boundary stalls. The first round of showers and thunderstorms (first round of a series of mesoscale convective systems (MCS's)) is forecast to arrive to Southeast TX on Tuesday. Given the nature of these shortwaves, it is difficult to pin-point specific timing. Latest hi-res guidance suggests scattered activity in the afternoon, bringing the first MCS Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Forecast rainfall amounts during this time frame is expected to be between 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Scattered showers and storms will continue on Wednesday before the next MCS's arrives early Thursday and additional systems persists into the weekend. With PWAT values near/at the climatological max for this time of year, combined with enough forcing and a deep warm cloud layer, rounds of moderate heavy rainfall will be possible. As noted in the previous discussion, earlier rainfall this week will serve to prime the soil. This saturated grounds will lead to a rapid transition to runoff, especially in areas experiencing repeated rounds of rain. Under this type of scenario, rainfall rates of 3 to 4+ in/hr are possible in the heaviest downpours. Overall, 3 to 6 inches of rain is forecast Thursday through Sunday, with localized higher amounts possible. Hazards: Severe Weather: Thunderstorms could become strong to severe with the first round of storms Tuesday into Wednesday. There is a Slight risk of severe weather mainly for our northwestern counties (Brazos Valley). The main severe weather risk is damaging winds. Hail up to a quarter sized will also be possible. Heavy Rainfall: A Marginal risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) is expected most of the week. A slight risk (level 2 of 4) is forecast for Thursday for portions of the Brazos Valley area. We will continue to monitor trends as these systems evolve in the coming days. A Flood Watch may need to be considered later this week. Stay tuned to the forecast not only through the week but also through the holiday weekend as this unsettled pattern looks to remain through early next week. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 713 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Skies are generally expected to return to MVFR though the evening and overnight area-wide. Winds will remain gusty out of the southeast at 10-15 kts with occasional higher gusts. Winds are expected to stay up through the morning hours tomorrow as ceilings gradually improve to low-end VFR by noontime. McNeel && .MARINE... Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Moderate to strong onshore winds and building seas (5 to 8 ft) will continue through Tuesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through mid Tuesday morning. Winds and seas will gradually weaken/subside by Tuesday afternoon, though gusts between 15 to 10 knots will continue through the week. Several disturbances will move across the bays and Gulf waters throughout the week, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be locally moderate to heavy. Some storms could become strong Tuesday night into Wednesday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. A high rip current risk continues along all Gulf-facing beaches. Given the persistent onshore flow, this risk will likely continue through the end of the week. JM && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Anticipating multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall Tuesday through at least Saturday. These rounds are expected to mostly be in the form of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS's). The exact timing of these storms can be a bit tricky as mesoscale factors play a key role (hence the name), but we anticipate the first round to come late Tuesday. With PW values exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.7-2.1"), rainfall rates will likely exceed 3-4"/hr in the heaviest downpours. While these lines of storms are typically progressive, the rainfall received early in the week is expected to prime the soils for rounds later in the week. Saturated soils leads to a quicker transition to runoff which brings an increased risk of flooding. We continue to anticipate widespread rainfall totals of 5-7" with isolated higher amounts. The highest rainfall totals are still expected to occur north of I-10. This rainfall will generate runoff and cause rises on area rivers and watersheds. Action to minor stage flooding is the most likely outcome, but cannot entirely rule out moderate to isolated major stage flooding depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Landry-Guyton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 88 73 83 / 20 30 70 90 Houston (IAH) 78 88 76 86 / 20 20 60 80 Galveston (GLS) 79 86 79 86 / 10 20 50 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...McNeel MARINE...JM