990 FXUS62 KMFL 182301 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 701 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 659 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through at least Tuesday evening as breezy easterly winds prevail. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across SW Florida again today. Low-end chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm. Rain chances will remain elevated over the next several days. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 112 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Models and synoptic charts describe a relatively deep high pressure ridge still dominating the SE CONUS and the northern portions of the peninsula, while a weakening U/L low meanders around the Bahamas just east of Florida. Morning convective activity on radar looked very similar to the previous day with training of showers and embedded thunderstorms focusing over east/central Broward, and interior Miami-Dade counties, although rainfall rates have been lower so far. Convection is expected to continue to shift towards interior and west coast areas through the rest of this afternoon and early evening hours as the easterly flow keeps the Gulf breeze limited to the immediate west coastline. Thermodyn parameters remain favorable enough for possible strong to isolated severe cells to develop, including max SBCAPE around 3000 j/kg, MFL and model sounding PWATs close to 2", along with steep lapse rates through the late afternoon hours. Best chances for the strongest updrafts will again reside along collision boundaries, especially where the Gulf breeze meets the easterly flow. Similar scenario is expected on Tuesday, with the easterly flow dominating the Gulf breeze and favoring convection on the western half of SoFlo. However, slightly warmer temps aloft and hints of possible mid-lvl drier air intrusion may result in weaker cells. Nighttime lows should remain warm with mid-upper 70s near the coasts, and low 70s inland. High temperatures for Tuesday will again range from the mid-upper 80s in SE Florida, to low-mid 90s over SW Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Longwave ridging will be the dominant pattern aloft for the eastern CONUS during the middle portion of the week. Florida will find itself in between an H5 centroid to its west over the southern Gulf and an H5 centroid to its east near Bermuda. Within the overall ridging pattern, ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement of showing a cut off low meandering around the northern Caribbean just east of the Bahamas. This area of low pressure will provide increased forcing for storms over the Atlantic waters as several lobes of vorticity advect westward near the vicinity of the Florida coastline. Florida will remain under rich moisture through the period, but some deeper pockets look to raise PWATs to near 1.8 inches, which is within the 75th percentile for this time of year. At the surface, winds will remain mostly easterly, but wind speeds will be slightly weaker than in the beginning of the week as pressure gradients relax across the eastern seaboard. As a result of this predominant easterly flow, the Gulf breeze won't be able to advance as far east. This will result in most afternoon thunderstorm activity favoring interior and portions of southwest Florida each day. Overall, PoPs will generally be in the 30% to 40% range across the peninsula each day, with higher 55% to 65% PoPs along the sea breeze convergence zones. Main threats will be frequent lightning, locally heavy downpours, and gusty winds. Despite the cutoff low nearby, 500 mb heights will actually be between 586 to 589 dm across South Florida, which is near to slightly above average for this time of year. This will in turn lead to slightly above normal temperatures area wide, with high temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. With moisture staying steady throughout the week, heat indices will remain in the upper 90s and lower 100s through the period as well. Zooming into the forecast a little bit, diurnal heating will drive most of these high temperatures each afternoon. But, with increased chances of showers moving onshore from the Gulfstream during the morning (particularly for the middle part of the week), cloud cover and rain may keep things cooler over certain spots during the day. Conversely, increased cloud cover and rain during the nighttime hours may suppress radiational cooling and keep things slightly warmer overnight. For the most part, widespread Moderate HeatRisk (level 2 of 4) is expected each day. However, long range ensembles are indicating that pressure heights will increase slightly as longwave ridging shifts east and the cut off low dissolves. This will result in warmer temperatures for the weekend, with the NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool showing a 40 to 50 percent chance of Major heat impacts for the east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 659 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Easterly winds 10-15 kts through the period. Scattered coastal showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight into early Tuesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 A moderate to fresh easterly breeze will remain established across the local waters early this week. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each day with extra activity expected for the Gulf waters compared to the Atlantic waters. Periods of rough seas and gustier winds are expected in and around thunderstorm activity. Atlantic seas early this week are expected generally at 3-4 feet with Gulf seas of 2 feet or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues for all of the Atlantic beaches early this week as breezy onshore winds persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 87 78 88 / 30 40 20 20 West Kendall 74 88 74 89 / 30 40 20 20 Opa-Locka 77 88 77 89 / 30 40 20 20 Homestead 76 87 77 88 / 40 40 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 78 86 78 86 / 40 40 30 30 N Ft Lauderdale 77 85 77 86 / 40 30 30 30 Pembroke Pines 78 89 78 90 / 30 40 20 30 West Palm Beach 77 86 78 87 / 40 30 20 10 Boca Raton 78 86 79 86 / 40 30 20 20 Naples 75 92 75 92 / 10 70 10 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....NMP AVIATION...CMF  125 FXUS66 KMTR 182303 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 403 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1251 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions, especially across the North, East, and South Bay Mountains and the Santa Cruz Mountains continue through tonight - Elevated fire weather concerns continue through today across the interior due to very dry conditions and breezy winds - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek with seasonal temperatures returning late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1251 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 (This evening through Tuesday) Gusty offshore winds have started to come down across the region and will continue to ease through the remainder of the day. Current gusts across the lower elevations are peaking around 25-30 mph with gusts across the higher elevations peaking between 35-45 mph. The strongest gust observed during this wind event was 86 mph right around midnight at Mt. Umunhum where the station is at an elevation of 3319 feet. This tracks pretty well with when the SFO-WMC pressure gradient peaked (-7.60 mb) around 1AM and again around 5AM. The SFO- WMC gradient is currently around -4.3 mb and is expected to continue easing through the remainder of the day. Winds remain lightly offshore across the interior through the remainder of today into tomorrow but winds will be weaker. We will see a return to our normal breezy afternoon/evening winds that ease overnight starting Tuesday. Upper level ridging continues to dominate the Pacific Ocean while broad upper level troughing prevails over the Western United States. At the surface, high pressure prevails over the Pacific while a coastal trough develops along the California coast. Warmer temperatures are expected to continue Tuesday through Thursday. This is thanks both to ridging offshore suppressing the marine layer and a warmer, drier airmass moving in in the wake of this weekend's strong offshore winds. Interior high temperatures will generally be in the 80s with the hottest portions of the North and East Bays in the low 90s. Coastal areas will be slightly cooler in the 60s to mid 70s. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through much of the upcoming week with daytime relative humidity values dropping into the 10's to 20's. While fire weather concerns are lower now that the winds are easing, fine fuels (grass, shrubs) are dried out and are ready to burn. If you are engaging in any outdoor activities involving flames or are towing something, keep a close eye on it and prevent sparks from spreading. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1251 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) The overall pattern remains the same for much of the upcoming week. High temperatures will stay above seasonal normals through Thursday with highs in the 80s to low 90s across the interior and 60s to 70s along the coast. Patchy moderate heatrisk is forecast across urban areas but it is note widespread enough to necessitate a Heat Advisory. If you are spending time outdoors this week make sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks in the shade as needed. Winds generally remain offshore with diurnally breezy conditions expected. Friday into the weekend a pattern change looks likely. Long range guidance suggests upper level ridging will weaken and shift westward over the Pacific while broad upper level troughing dominates the West Coast. With high pressure shifting away, onshore winds return and the marine layer will be able to redevelop by late week. A shallow (~500 ft) marine layer will redevelop mid to late week but will deepen to ~1000 ft by Friday. This, and receding high pressure, will kick off a cooling trend with interior temperatures returning to the 70s to low 80s and coastal areas to the 60s. The return of the marine layer will help to alleviate dry daytime conditions, further reducing fire risk late next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Breezy and gusty northeast winds will gradually diminish through the next couple of hours as an onshore push returns to the coastal regions this afternoon, with the coastal breeze continuing through the evening. Breezy winds will continue across the interior mountains of the Bay Area through the night, with northeast winds spreading across the interior valleys Tuesday morning towards the end of the 24-hour TAF period. Beyond that, Tuesday's coastal breezes look to be stronger than today's. Vicinity of SFO... VFR conditions through the TAF period. Breezy and gusty northeast winds will turn more northwesterly through the afternoon, before diminishing through the evening and remaining light overnight through Tuesday morning. West-northwest winds will resume on Tuesday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR conditions through the TAF period. Breezy northwest winds will develop imminently and continue into the evening. Winds remain light overnight before resuming Tuesday afternoon after the end of the TAF period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 402 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Winds may become calm and/or variable overnight. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Winds may become calm and/or variable overnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and VFR with gusty westerly flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 402 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Moderate to rough seas and moderate to fresh northwest breezes result in continuing hazardous conditions for small craft into the mid week before easing for the inner waters and the southern outer waters. Fresh to strong northwest breezes remain hazardous for small craft into the late week for the northern outer waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Gusty north to northeast winds will continue through this afternoon before easing tonight into tomorrow. Peak gusts between 35 to 45 mph are still possible across the higher elevations into this evening. Daytime humidity retention remains poor with most sites staying around 10-25% across the interior and higher peaks with limited overnight recoveries. Winds ease by Tuesday but fire weather concerns will linger through late week as light offshore flow continues and daytime humidities remain poor. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  338 FXUS62 KTAE 182307 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 707 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Hot temperatures are expected through mid week. There is a high chance of highs at or above 90 across the area with the Florida Big Bend having a low chance of highs at or above 95. The heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without cooling/hydration. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through the next few days with coverage increasing late week into the weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any stronger storms that develop. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Sunday) Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Scattered showers and storms are beginning to develop over the Florida Panhandle early this afternoon. This should continue for the remainder of the day over mainly inland parts of the Panhandle into portions of southeast Alabama. Some of the storms this afternoon could produce strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph, locally heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. These will fade during the early to mid part of the evening with a warm and muggy night ahead. Lows area-wide will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday through Thursday, there will be less coverage of showers and storms overall as strong ridging builds overhead and PWATs decrease a bit. Rain chances are at most around 20-30% each day. It will be very hot, however, by May standards. Highs will be in the low to potentially mid 90s for much of the area over the next 3 days with some areas seeing heat index values nearing 100 for the first time this year. This level of heat could affect those who are sensitive to heat, such as the elderly, those with chronic health conditions, or those without access to adequate cooling or hydration. By late in the week into the weekend, the ridging will begin to shift a little bit more to the east as troughing nudges more into the Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. This will gradually pull in more moisture to our area with rain chances increasing heading into the holiday weekend. This would primarily be an increased chance of afternoon showers and storms. High temperatures will come back down to the upper 80s to lower 90s, but with the increased humidity, heat index values will still remain in the mid 90s to low && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Some low stratus may develop near VLD and ABY in the morning hours near sunrise as easterly flow develops, but confidence is a bit on the lower side. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Low TSRA chances inhibit mention in the TAF but we can't rule out a pop up shower or storm on Tuesday from 20z-00z at ECP. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continue over the next several days. The highest winds will generally be tonight with some areas approaching cautionary levels, especially over Apalachee Bay. Otherwise, tranquil boating conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Generally southeasterly transport winds around 10 mph will continue each day, though the afternoon sea breeze will turn winds more southerly to southwesterly as it passes through. Dispersions will be good each day across the area. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible along the afternoon sea breeze. Some of these storms may produce gusty, erratic winds as well as frequent lightning strikes. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through the next week. These could produce locally heavy downpours, which may lead to some nuisance flooding, mainly in urban or poor drainage areas. However, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area. While the rain is beneficial, significant improvement in drought conditions is not expected. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 91 72 92 / 0 10 10 20 Panama City 71 87 71 87 / 0 10 0 20 Dothan 67 89 69 90 / 10 0 10 30 Albany 67 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 20 Valdosta 66 91 67 92 / 0 10 0 10 Cross City 69 93 68 94 / 0 40 10 20 Apalachicola 74 84 74 84 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for FLZ112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young  703 FXUS62 KILM 182310 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 710 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Discussions updated. Precip chances lowered during the Thursday-Sunday timeframe due to the anticipated pattern supporting mainly isolated to scattered showers and storms as opposed to widespread precip. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Inland portions of the eastern Carolinas should see their longest heat wave of the year so far with 90+ degree heat expected to continue through Thursday. 2) Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Inland portions of the eastern Carolinas should see their longest heat wave of the year so far with 90+ degree heat expected to continue through Thursday. An upper high will shift into the Atlantic and leave an axis of higher heights from the Gulf into the central Atlantic, and this is responsible for the sustained period of hot inland temperatures, which should last through Thursday. Sinking air below the upper ridge will create a deep warm, dry layer in the middle troposphere, supporting abnormally warm surface temperatures. Models have maintained their 850 mb temp forecasts of +16C to 18C (at or above the 90th percentile climatological values for this time of year), which increases confidence in our forecast of 90+ degree heat continuing through Thursday for locations away from the daily cooling influences of the sea breeze. Our forecast is for an additional three days (Tuesday through Thursday) of 90+ degree heat inland. Since Florence and Lumberton highs reached 90 degrees on Sunday, a five day streak would eclipse this year's earlier streak of four days of 90 degree temps recorded from April 15-18 in both Florence and Lumberton. Coastal portions of the Carolinas should remain significantly cooler than inland due to sustained south winds dragging air across nearshore water still near 70 degrees. The upper ridge will become increasingly narrow with time as an upper low strengthens across the northern Bahamas Tuesday into Thursday. This feature looks a lot like an early season TUTT low, but any enhanced convection or other sensible weather impacts should remain far to our south. The arrival of a surface cold front Thursday afternoon should end this heat wave with temperatures returning toward normal for Friday. However, the front is expected to stall and lift back north, with troughing to the west and a ridge centered over the Atlantic supporting more of a daily pop-up convection pattern over the weekend. Thus, high temps will depend on the extent of cloud cover and precip that develops. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas. Dry weather will come to an end as a front shifts in from the north on Thursday. There's reasonable uncertainty on placement of highest POPs day to day as we deal with a stalled front in or near the area and the daily sea breeze. The front should lift north of the area into the weekend but the warm, humid air mass will continue to support at least daily pop-up shower and storm chances through the end of the period. With respect to the lowering of precip chances late in the week and over the weekend, NBM-based and GEFS/ECME precip probabilities appear overdone given the expected pattern with a ridge over the Atlantic and troughing well west of the area. While the incoming front could bring enhanced precip coverage due to surface convergence along the boundary paired with a warm and humid troposphere, little in the way of upper support is depicted amongst the global models, lending lower confidence to a widespread coverage of precip than what would be expected with 70-80% PoPs. In addition, GFS MOS and ECME MOS output both support lower probabilities for precip generally at or below 50%. Thus, PoPs were lowered until confidence increases in when and where a period of greater precip coverage can be expected. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... We have high confidence in VFR conditions continuing through this evening. Low level moisture in the lowest 1000-1500 feet of the atmosphere and clear skies aloft should set the stage for the development of fog and/or low ceilings late tonight. There is some raw model and statistical guidance suggesting fog could become dense in spots. Given yesterday's observations across the region and the better setup tonight, IFR fog has been added to most terminals with some dense fog possible near the coast. Once daytime heating clears up surface visibility, dry air aloft should result in fewer low clouds lingering compared to what we saw this morning. Similar afternoon forecast with some cumulus and southeasterly flow at the coast with gusts to 15 knots. Extended Forecast... Areas of low clouds and fog are possible Wednesday through Saturday mornings, generally in the 08z-12z timeframe. Confidence is moderate. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase across the entire area Friday into Saturday as a front stalls across the Carolinas. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure ridging westward across South Carolina will maintain dry weather and a light southerly wind across the area. Superimposed on this synoptic wind will be a landbreeze/seabreeze pattern that should lead to localized stronger wind speeds (10-15 kt) nearshore during the afternoons and evenings. Seas should average 2 feet across the coastal waters (2-3 feet for the waters out to 60 miles) mainly in an 8-second southeast swell. Tuesday night through Saturday... Offshore high pressure will maintain control through midweek until a cold front approaches from the north. This front looks to stall near or over the waters before lifting back northward by late Friday. Generally south winds can be expected until the front draws near, with a period of east or even northeast winds possible near the coast if the front can push offshore; otherwise, expect southeast winds ahead of the front. Speeds are expected to stay between 5-15 kts, with enhanced nearshore gustiness due to the sea breeze likely each day. Seas are expected to hold in the 2-3 ft range in the 0-20nmi zone and 3-4 ft in the 20-60nmi zone through the period, mainly driven by persistent southeasterly swells with a period of 8-9 sec. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ABW DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...21 MARINE...TRA/ABW  883 FXUS64 KLIX 182313 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 613 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 611 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and widespread Wednesday through the weekend. 7 day rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches in the northwest to less than an inch of much of coastal MS and extreme SELA. - Minor coastal flooding may slightly impact typically known problem areas like Waveland, MS tomorrow and Wednesday around midday. - Temperatures are forecast to be generally near to warmer than normal through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 We are seeing isolated to widely scattered showers over the area, mainly along and north of the 10/12 corridor. this activity should quickly come to an end as the sun begins to set. As for tomorrow, rain chances may be a tad higher but overall Tuesday will be fairly similar to today. We will likely still have enough ridging in place to keep convection down to isolated to widely scattered but as the week continues convection will increase in coverage. Biggest positive from a rain chance stand point will be the moisture increase. Moisture is already slowly increasing but we will see Pws surge tomorrow. If rain remains on the lower end tomorrow and clouds aren't too thick, it will be a warm day. h925 temps of 23-24 C suggest highs around 90 to lower 90s. But given the likelihood of broken skies we probably wont fully realize those temps but upper 80s to maybe a few locations touching 90 will be possible. One more possible impact tomorrow could be minor coastal flooding in some of the common problem areas. We are right at Spring tide for the month and given the persistent light to moderate onshore flow we are running around 0.6 to just under 1' above astronomical and that will be the case for atleast one more day tomorrow. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Medium range models are in rather good agreement with southwest flow remaining over the area through the forecast. Obviously specific timing of impulses and rainfall amounts differ but the overall setup is no different. NBM is advertising numerous to categorical PoPs starting Wednesday and each day through the weekend and without being able to get very specific with timing see no reason to deviate from it. Southwest flow finally gets strong enough to push the ridging aloft to the east and the first in a series of impulses is expected to push through the region. Timing of it specifically is still too difficult to pin point at this time. Moisture already having increased with PWs at or just below 2" will be in place. We will likely see quite a bit more activity Wednesday afternoon and into the evening than we have the previous 5 days, mainly across the northwest. The southeastern half of the CWA could remain mostly dry as the ridge could still have enough of an impact over these locations. Heading into Thursday and through the weekend things only improve for rain potential over the northwestern 2/3rds of the CWA. Southwest flow will remain in place through this time. There will be no front plowing through or trough axis sliding completely across the region thus leaving a moisture abundant atmosphere in place. In addition there will be persistent diffluence aloft as the ridging to our east will try to induce split flow in the upper levels right over the region. That, unstable conditions, and the abundant moisture in place will aid the efficiency of storms and rainfall could begin to quickly add up over some of the northwest. Locations along extreme SELA and much of coastal MS on the other hand may struggle to get more than an inch of rain over the next 7 days. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Mostly VFR this evening will give way to more MVFR CIGs overnight before improving once again by mid morning on Tuesday. Mostly light to moderate southerly winds will prevail. Tuesday afternoon additional convection will be possible for the western terminals...covered these with PROBs during peak heating hours on Tuesday. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A large area of high pressure will remain situated over the western Atlantic through the week and into the weekend. This will maintain light to moderate onshore flow through the time. Winds will bounce around headline criteria over the next 24 to 36 hours with sustained winds right around 15 kts, especially closer to the coast. Exercise Caution headlines will be in effect again overnight for the waters west of the mouth of the river along with Breton and Chandeluer Sound. As for showers and thunderstorms daily isolated to scattered light showers will be possible each day however the bull of the coverage will remain inland. With any thunderstorm locally hazardous winds and waves can be expected. One last hiccup is maybe some very minor coastal flooding impacts, mainly around the Waveland area given the high astronomical tides and persistent southerly winds. Tuesday midday may be the peak of any tidal impact's. /CAB/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...RDF MARINE...CAB  996 FXUS62 KMLB 182315 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 715 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Isolated/scattered showers and storms through the week, especially south of Cape Canaveral. A slight increase in rain chances is forecast this weekend, areawide. - A Moderate HeatRisk gradually expands across east central Florida, especially late week into the weekend; adequate hydration and breaks from the heat will be important for those spending time outdoors. - High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at ALL central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Now-Tonight...Showers and scattered storms from this morning have continued into the early part of the afternoon along the Treasure Coast. This is where 1.6-1.7"+ PW exist, according to GOES-derived PW imagery. Farther north, mostly dry conditions continue with temperatures in the mid/upper 80s. CAMs are suggesting a gradual end to coastal rain/storms, transitioning activity toward the west FL coast late this afternoon and evening. However, model initialization has lagged behind what is being observed on radar, so trends will be monitored for coastal activity to linger a bit longer. East- southeast winds remain gusty, reaching 25 mph at times. Across the interior, wind speeds are forecast to decrease after sunset to 5-10 mph. Along the coast from the Cape southward, persistent easterly flow looks to keep winds elevated (10-15 mph) through the night. As a result, mid 70s are forecast along the Volusia/north Brevard coast while lows in the upper 70s are expected. Isolated coastal showers and occasional lightning strikes cannot be ruled out overnight, though chances are low (15-20%). Tuesday-Sunday...Not a whole lot of change is expected to our overall setup from mid week into the Memorial Day weekend. Surface high pressure remains anchored well offshore over the Atlantic with an H5 ridge well north of Florida. There is a broad mid level low that rotates toward the ECFL coast Wednesday, helping to moisten 300- 500mb layer a bit more. It remains to be seen whether that will at all support any more shower/storm coverage, particularly at the coast. By the end of the week, this feature becomes rather disorganized while moving away from ECFL, toward the Bahamas. With continued ESE flow, rain chances that start the day at the coast will again end across the interior and west coast of FL. Precip chances increase modestly Friday into the weekend as moisture increases areawide. This update carries a 40-55% chance for showers and storms each afternoon, which is a slight downward trend from this morning's forecast (but closer to climo). H5 temps will be warming as well, so the primary concern with any stronger storm would be gusty winds. High temperatures warm into the low 90s for much of the area after Thursday, with the coast remaining in the upper 80s behind the daily sea breeze. Gusts around 20-25 mph along and in the wake of the sea breeze are likely to continue as well. With additional moisture comes a higher heat index, forecast to reach the upper 90s to low 100s Friday-Sunday. Warm and muggy conditions each night will provide little relief around the clock, so at least a Moderate HeatRisk is forecast. For those considering beach plans this holiday weekend, a moderate to high risk of rip currents will continue as onshore winds persist. Always heed the advice of lifeguards! When red flags are flying, entering the water is strongly discouraged. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 East-southeast flow, gusty at times, remains through the week as high pressure remains anchored well offshore. Embedded in the onshore flow at times are isolated to scattered showers and storms, some of which contain frequent lightning and gusty winds around 30 kt. Outside of storms, seas may briefly build to 5 ft overnight but generally remain 2-4 ft through late week. Small craft should exercise caution, offshore south of the Cape and in the nearshore Treasure Coast waters tonight. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Breezy onshore flow (easterlies) will continue through the TAF period. A marginal uptick in moisture will allow a few showers to move off the Atlantic. Coastal terminals are favored for this activity. While instability exists, VCTS for such a long period would be too much of a broad brush. Will monitor and AMD with VCTS as necessary. MVFR conds will occasionally occur in the vicinity of showers. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 High pressure centered well offshore will help maintain east- southeasterly winds through the week and into the weekend. Sustained winds during the day of 10-20 mph with gusts around 25 mph are possible, along with briefly higher gusts embedded in showers or isolated lightning storms. The greatest chance for rain and storms will be south of the Cape, transitioning inland with the afternoon east coast sea breeze. However, many locations will remain dry. Recent dryness will prolong fire sensitive conditions, and any lightning strikes could lead to new fire starts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 86 74 87 / 20 20 10 20 MCO 73 89 73 89 / 10 30 10 30 MLB 77 85 77 86 / 20 20 10 20 VRB 77 87 77 87 / 20 20 10 20 LEE 72 90 72 90 / 0 30 10 30 SFB 73 89 72 90 / 10 20 10 30 ORL 73 89 73 89 / 10 30 10 30 FPR 76 86 76 86 / 20 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Heil  990 FXUS63 KDLH 182315 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 615 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another night with showers and storms possible. Severe risk has decreased and is now isolated to southeast portions of our CWA. Primary threats would be damaging winds and large hail. - Freeze Warning likely needed across most the region for Tuesday night. - Cool temps through midweek with a warming trend into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current Conditions/Today: Widespread stratus has engulfed most the region in the wake of last nights showers and isolated storms. We are also seeing some areas of fog from the Brainerd Lakes Region and extending northeast through the Twin Ports and up the shore. This layer of stable air will keep temperatures cool with highs staying in the 50s under this cloud deck. Satellite is showing a few pockets of clearing over SE MN and western WI where temperatures will rebound back into the 70s helping to reload instability for this evenings convective potential. However, up in our portion of NW WI there are few breaks in the clouds with low clouds still filtering in from the west, so recovery seems limited. A baroclinic zone will still be draped across the Upper Midwest this afternoon with a surface low pressure centered over SE MN. Through the evening and overnight hours several low pressure systems will ride along this boundary boosting lift and helping to fuel shower and storm development. However, satellite trends through the morning hours have not been favorable for instability recovery and our temperatures across the region remain quite cool when compared to our neighbors to the south. The main threat for severe weather will be well off to our south. As such the SPC has pulled the severe risk down to just our SE corner with a marginal risk. Some strong storms can't be ruled out at this time with some damaging winds and hail at times, but the tornado chances are no longer a concern. Showers are expected to become more widespread later this evening. The two focal points for this activity is the low pressure moving along the stalled boundary and an upper level trough pivoting across the Upper Midwest. Targeted timing for rain entering from the southwest is after 9PM with activity departing to the northeast after 8AM. With the reduced risk for thunderstorms our overall rain totals have come down a bit with most the region seeing between 0.10-0.25" Areas that do see thunderstorms will have locally higher amounts, but the overall risk for flooding has diminished. Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday: Northwest flow and surface high pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday. Cyclonic flow aloft paired with remnant moisture will lead to diurnally driven cumulus and isolated sprinkles across northern MN. Temperatures will be on the cool side for Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Overnight, the high pressure moves over MN with clear skies leading to rapid radiational cooling. Widespread Freeze Warnings will likely be needed across the region. Conditions dry out a bit more on Wednesday with high temps rebounding back into the 50s and 60s. Winds will be light so fire weather concerns are low at this time. By Thursday high pressure departs to the east and we will get southerly return flow streaming back into the region. High temps will continue to climb back into the upper 60s with cooler conditions expected by Lake Superior. Friday-Weekend: An upper level trough is still expected to move across the Northern Plains to end the work week bringing rain chances back to the Northland. Timing of this has been slowed down when compared to previous model runs with 20-30% PoPs now entering Friday afternoon.This will also prompt the return of southwest flow aloft leading to a warming trend. Weekend temperatures in the 70s and some 80s possible with cooler by the Lake still in play. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Pockets of IFR/LIFR stratus clouds will slowly return this evening. Showers and some storms are expected to develop and move northeast through the region which may mix up the boundary layer but may help to reinforce low clouds into the morning on Tuesday. The storms and shower activity will move off to the northeast with gusty northwest winds filtering in behind Tuesday. Ceilings may be slow to improve tomorrow and may remain sub-VFR through the TAF period. Winds will slowly switch backing from easterly to northwesterly through the TAF period. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Light winds currently across the Lake. These winds will increase out of the northeast this evening with Small Craft Advisories in effect. Winds will turn to out of the northwest Tuesday afternoon and weaken. Additionally, a few showers and storms are possible tonight through tomorrow morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Cloudy today with high Min RHs. Another batch of showers and a few storms are expected to roll over the region the region tonight and exit tomorrow morning. Rain totals have trended down with most areas expected to see between 0.10-0.25" Areas that do get thunderstorm development can expect locally higher amounts. Gusty northwest wind for Tuesday paired with virga and sprinkles in the afternoon. Next dry day will likely be Wednesday, winds will be light though as high pressure moves over the region. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140>143. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ146-147. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Britt FIRE WEATHER...Britt  030 FXUS63 KDTX 182315 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 715 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions exist again Tuesday which supports a risk of severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. The strongest storms are capable of damaging wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. - A cold front Tuesday night ushers in dry and cooler weather for Wednesday and Thursday. - The next chance of rain arrives Friday and Friday night. && .AVIATION... Threat for thunderstorms has ended early this evening setting up VFR mid/high cloud to start the night. Strengthening southwesterly winds Tuesday morning draws richer low level moisture back into SE MI supporting the developing of scattered low cloud (~3kft). There is some model signal for widely scattered shower development along the nose of this moisture offering a shot at light showers and borderline MVFR cigs for the mid/late morning hours. An approaching cold front reaches southern lower MI by Tuesday afternoon bringing the next chances for showers/storms. Due to the morning shower/low cloud potential, exactly how much the region is able to destabilize (which in turn will affect the subsequent coverage of thunderstorms) is the main point of uncertainty so will introduce Prob30s groups to start to highlight the window for potential convection. D21/DTW Convection... No convection is forecast tonight through Tuesday morning. There is a chance for scattered storms to develop in the afternoon, ~20-00Z, in advance of a cold front. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low-medium for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. * Low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft tonight, medium by Tuesday morning through the day. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 DISCUSSION... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221 is in effect until 800 pm for the mature MCS inbound into SE Mi. Damaging wind gusts of 70 mph or greater have been reported and remain the primary hazard as the line tracks across SE Mi. Instability trends remain on track as full morning to early afternoon sun lifted temperatures to near 90 all areas. Model MLCAPE up around 2000 J/kg in HREF mean and RAP projections of hourly mesoanalysis add confidence to persistence. The system is already demonstrating benefits of the locally enhanced wind shear profile supplied by the parent MCV resulting in a mature linear convective mode now expected to maintain organization while crossing SE Mi. Storms exit eastward into Ontario by 00Z at or before watch expiration. Another round of severe thunderstorm potential for Tuesday is set up by Midwest low pressure as it moves into upper Michigan while pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes. SE Mi remains firmly in the warm sector of this system throughout the day with early to mid evening cold front timing offering time for instability to become sufficient. Morning clouds and a stray shower likely slow the pace of surface heating compared to today, however model projections of MLCAPE place 2000 J/kg in reach by 21Z Tuesday afternoon, especially toward the Ohio border. This occurs in a very similar wind profile compared to today in terms of moderate unidirectional shear except with a deeper 40-45 knot layer through 500 mb. Storm initiation timing is the primary uncertainty as shown in the wide range of hi-res model solutions that collectively suggest a later afternoon consensus. Later timing equates to less impact to SE Mi in terms of coverage area and also a more isolated severe threat before storms can better organize while the cold front moves through the area. Frontal passage Tuesday night, before midnight, sweeps storms out of SE Mi and sweeps in cooler air for the midweek period. A broad area of surface high pressure and short wave ridging ensures below normal temperatures but dry weather during this time period as well. Central Plains to Ohio valley low pressure then brings the next round of showers into Lower Mi later Friday and Friday night. MARINE... Attention to the near-term forecast will focus on the ongoing line of thunderstorms that extend across central Michigan. This line will pass across the eastern Great Lakes this evening and will bring heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and strong to severe weather. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts aoa 50 knots for all of the open water locations. Hail to an inch and/or a waterspout cannot be ruled out but are secondary hazards for severe weather. Prior to this line of thunderstorm arriving, isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 PM EDT. Outside of any thunderstorm activity, breezy southwest to south flow will persist, bringing non-thunderstorm gusts on the order of 20 to 25 knots. The main line of storms will exit late tonight but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight. Renewed strong to severe thunderstorm chances will again be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening which will bring additional chances to see all storm hazards included wind gusts aoa 50 knots. These stronger storms will be most favorable from central Lake Huron and locations south. Outside of thunderstorms, gusts to 25 knots will again be possible during daylight hours. Re-issuance of Small Craft Advisories will be likely. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422- 441>443. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....KDK DISCUSSION...BT MARINE.......BT You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  075 FXUS61 KBGM 182315 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 715 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Very few if any storm cells are anticipated this evening, almost all locations will stay dry. Confidence in storms Tuesday has decreased as severe parameters are trending lower. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong high pressure will maintain hot and humid conditions into Tuesday, with isolated thunderstorms. 2) A cold front will push through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Much more seasonable temperatures return for the rest of the week and into the weekend. 3) Memorial Day Weekend could have active weather with seasonable temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Our first taste of summer continues through Tuesday as a strong Bermuda high dominates the region. The positioning of the high puts us in the NW quadrant of the system, allowing for strong SW flow to advect warm, humid air in from the southern US. Temps currently in the upper 80s and should warm into the low 90s for valley locations in the next few hours. Dewpoints are also hovering around 60F, which is the usually the threshold for when it starts to feel sticky outside. This humid airmass will allow for overnight lows to remain quite warm, with mid to upper 60s expected across the region. Tuesday will once again be hot and sticky as SW flow continues through the day. There may be a little more cloud cover as a trough moves into the Great Lakes region, so temps could be a couple degrees cooler than today/Monday, but it will feel about the same with heat indices in the upper 80s to low 90s. A cold front is progged to slowly slide in from the NW starting Tuesday night, which will drop temps below 60s north of the Southern Tier, and keep temps in the mid to upper 60s along and south of the Southern Tier. The increasing heat and humidity usually also implies increasing thunderstorm chances, but that is not the case for this set up. The Bermuda high centered off the Carolina coast has a center 500mb height around 592dm. With this strong high so close to the coast, its influence should dominate any thermodynamic processes that would try and get convection going. Looking at the latest model soundings from high-res hourly CAMs, we see a very large and deep inverted V profile due to dry air in the lower atmosphere, with WAA providing a strong cap in the 700-500mb range. CAMs earlier in the day were showing some storms initiating during the early evening hours along the Lake Plain, but the latest runs have backed off, showing a slight chance for some isolated storms moving into NEPA around midnight and the northern Finger Lakes during the overnight hours. These storms would develop off some leftover energy from a MCS currently over IL/IN/MI moves along the edge of the ridge, but confidence is low that this energy would be able to penetrate the dynamics from the strong ridge and generate storms. On Tuesday, the center of the ridge will drift eastward, opening up our area to better chances for thunderstorms from the late morning into the evening hours. Severe parameters for any storm that develops currently looks to be on the low end, with CAPE under 1000 j/kg during the afternoon, mid-level lapse rates around 5-6C/km and 0-6km bulk shear around 30-40kts. One feature that could help get some storms going, especially along the Lake Plain and into the Mohawk Valley, is energy from a shortwave moving across Ontario dipping into our area. Models are showing chances of stronger shear and lift N of the Southern Tier during the late morning to mid afternoon hours that could help develop some storms that could become severe. The big hindrance seems to be morning cloud cover that lingers into the afternoon, reducing surface heating and mid-level lapse rates, which would limit storm development. If the clouds are not as widespread as currently forecast or we can see some clearing by late morning, thunderstorm coverage and severe chances will definitely increase. KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front is expected to slowly move through the area from the NW Tuesday night thru Wednesday as the Bermuda high flattens and moves to the SW and a trough moves in from the Great Lakes. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front, but coverage and amount of rain still remains somewhat uncertain. The last few model runs are showing less and less rainfall amounts as the front runs into the drier air mass that has been under the ridge for the past few days. The front and associated precipitation is expected to clear the area by the late afternoon hours. A temperature gradient is expected to set up over the area on Wednesday as the front moves through, with upper end highs in the mid to upper 80s across the Wyoming Valley, falling all the way down to the upper 60s across the northern Finger Lakes into the Tug Hill region. Colder air will once again will filter into the region for the rest of the week, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. High pressure will dominate with no rain expected thru Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3... With the Memorial Day weekend in sight, the weather unfortunately might not cooperate for those who would like to spend the weekend outside with sunny skies and summer like temperatures. The ridge over our area through the end of the week will slide to the ENE as a trough is currently progged to move into the central portion of the country. The trough looks to eject a shortwave or two into our area Sat and Sun, but the ridge may be strong enough to keep rain out of the area. The positioning of the ridge will keep the cooler airmass in place, with low 60s on Sat and mid to upper 60s on Sunday. Memorial Day could see temps push into the 70s, but depending on how the ridge behaves through the weekend, we could see showers and storms develop. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overall VFR conditions are forecast through 00Z Wednesday, though with at least isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon. A rogue shower or storm cannot totally be ruled out even tonight, but the chances are somewhat better Tuesday afternoon. However, confidence is far too low to include mention in specific TAFs, but it would be reasonable to anticipate brief restrictions if a cell actually impacts a terminal. Increased southwesterly flow just off the surface overnight, versus a very light airport wind, will pose marginal low level wind shear conditions for a time at KELM-KITH-KSYR- KRME. LLWS will be gone before daybreak, and then during the day Tuesday, surface winds will mix down with gusts of 15-20 knots. Outlook: Tuesday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible as a frontal boundary moves through the area. Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday night through Saturday...Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms likely along with associated restrictions. && Near record highs through Tuesday. Below are the current records, what was observed today, and forecast Tuesday. Today/Monday... KBGM - 87 degrees, set in 1962 (observed 87, tying record) KSYR - 90 degrees, set in 1962 (observed 91, new record) KAVP - 93 degrees, set in 1962 (observed 91, short of record) Tuesday... KBGM - 87 degrees, reached in 1962 and 1996 (forecast 88) KSYR - 92 degrees, set in 1971 (forecast 91) KAVP - 92 degrees, set in 1962 (forecast 92) .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTC/MDP AVIATION...MDP  261 FXUS64 KBMX 182318 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 618 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 617 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 - Warm conditions are expected today and tomorrow with highs near 90 degrees. - Chances for showers and storms will be above average Wednesday through the weekend, with the highest (40-70%) chances in northern and western portions of Central Alabama during the afternoon and evening hours. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 150 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 Temperatures are warming up nicely across the area with many areas approaching 90 degrees. A mid-level trough is located over the western CONUS, while mid-level ridging is generally in place over the Gulf, Southeast CONUS, and western Atlantic, though there is a broad upper low near the Bahamas. At the surface, low pressure is located over Kansas with a Bermuda high over the western Atlantic. Overall we are in a summer-like pattern, indicating the beginning of the summer convective season. Showers are already developing in southern Alabama, in an area of 1.5 inch GOES-derived PWAT values lifting northward. Latest HREF guidance indicates isolated to scattered showers and storms lifting northward late this afternoon and into the early evening, aided by this enhancement in moisture and weak confluence on the west side of the Bermuda high. However, ridging aloft and a lack of higher PWAT values will be a limiting factor for coverage. MLCAPE values will be around 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon with weak mid-level lapse rates and weak shear. This should limit overall updraft intensity, with severe storms being unlikely, but with DCAPE over 1000 J/kg there will be a risk for gusty winds with any stronger storms. Heights increase slightly on Tuesday while some lower PWATs advect in from the east. The daytime hours look to be mainly dry and warm across Central Alabama. Convection will develop ahead of the stalling cold front over Mississippi aided by some weak vorticity maxima in southwest flow aloft. Some of the activity and its outflow boundaries may move into our northwest counties Tuesday night. CAMs generally indicate this activity more or less falling apart, but low to medium (20-40%) rain chances will continue through the overnight hours Tuesday night. Wednesday through the end of the week a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain stalled to our northwest, with elevated PWATs in the 1.7-1.9 inches lingering through the extended period, highest far northwest. Positively tilted troughing will be located to our north and west, with ridging being suppressed to the Gulf. This will place Central Alabama under southwest flow aloft with several shortwaves moving through and continued low- level southerly flow off of the Gulf. Chances for showers and storms will remain above climatology for much of the rest of the period in the 40-70% range, lower than that in the southeast counties. We are not expecting a washout, but occasional periods of showers and storms, with details dependent on outflow boundaries and MCVs from previous days. 0-6 km bulk shear values around 20-25kts may be sufficient for multicells at times, with convection being of the "pulse" variety. While widespread severe weather is not expected, some isolated to widely scattered instances may occur. Overall rainfall amounts should mostly be beneficial, though if some areas get several rounds of heavy rainfall then some minor flooding could occur. 32/JDavis && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 VFR conditions prevail through this TAF cycle. The KBMX radar reveals isolated convection, generally across the southern half of the CWA. As a result, I have continued with the PROB30 mention for TSRA atBHM/EET/MGM/TCL through 04Z. Drier air along the AL/GA state line will help keep convection clear of AUO. Winds will be out of the south-southeast from 5-10 knots through this TAF cycle. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast this afternoon, with mainly dry conditions expected Tuesday afternoon. Min RH values will be in the 40-50% range both afternoons. Rain chances increase by mid week and continue into the weekend as a front stalls near the region, with higher Min RH values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 65 88 65 87 / 10 10 10 70 Anniston 65 88 66 86 / 10 0 10 60 Birmingham 70 89 70 87 / 30 0 10 70 Tuscaloosa 69 90 69 88 / 20 0 20 50 Calera 67 90 67 88 / 30 0 10 60 Auburn 67 89 68 88 / 10 0 0 30 Montgomery 68 90 69 89 / 20 0 10 40 Troy 66 90 68 89 / 20 0 10 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...32/JDavis AVIATION...95/Castillo  250 FXUS64 KOHX 182318 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 618 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Above normal temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s continue through Tuesday. - There is a high chance for showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday. The severe threat is very low. - Additional rain chances late week may push rainfall totals over 2 inches by the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Gusty southerly winds are in place this evening, but these winds will lessen over the next couple of hours. Moisture values are improving though with current dewpoints sitting in the 60s. While dry and quiet tonight, this moisture will help to set the stage for increasing rain chances tomorrow afternoon as a cold front approaches. No changes to prior forecast thinking. Severe weather threat still looks to be low tomorrow afternoon and evening, but there is a low chance for strong or damaging winds for storms along the front, primarily across the western half of Middle TN. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1118 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Not much in terms of cloud cover over Middle Tennessee currently, but clouds are approaching from the west and the south this afternoon. We're already in the 80s in a lot of areas across Middle Tennessee, with highs expected to top out in the low 90s. We could possibly see a stray shower or thunderstorm from the convection to our north and west this evening, but that probability is very low at this time. Tuesday will be the start of a pattern shift in the area. Through the end of the week, Middle Tennessee will be stuck in a troughing pattern with several systems coming through. The good news is it looks to bring some much needed rainfall to our yards, with QPF through the end of the forecast period around 1.5 to 2.3 inches. The bad news is there is a severe threat associated with a cold front Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. The severe threat is a marginal risk, level 1 out of 5, but not impressive. Any severe weather we get in Middle Tennessee with this will be pretty isolated, as the better parameters for more widespread severe are displaced to our northwest again. Despite cloud cover, southerly flow will raise our temperatures into the 90s once again for highs on Tuesday before the cold front swings through. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1118 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Our unsettled weather continues mid-week, with our highest rain chances Wednesday. As the cold front passes through and high pressure sets up to the north, expect rainy conditions all day on Wednesday. While it will be a soaker, severe weather is not a concern at this time. The cold front will slowly pass through Middle Tennessee into Wednesday night, and is expected to stall out just to our south in northern Mississippi and Alabama. This will lead to another higher rain chance south of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. PWATs will remain on the higher side through the forecast period, and probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rain by the end of the weekend are still around that 50-70% range. We will continue to cross our fingers and hope the rain totals don't decrease! Temperatures will drop a little after the front to the upper 70s and low 80s, but that's about it for the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle, however I have added in a PROB30 for CKV late tomorrow afternoon now that we finally look to have some storms in the area. Time may have to be adjusted slightly with future issuances based on latest guidance. Southerly winds will relax below 10 kts after 00Z, then become gusty again late tomorrow morning with gusts of 20 to 25 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 91 67 83 / 0 30 70 100 Clarksville 72 90 67 80 / 0 40 70 90 Crossville 66 85 64 81 / 0 10 40 90 Columbia 70 90 66 83 / 10 20 60 90 Cookeville 69 87 66 81 / 0 10 40 90 Jamestown 66 88 64 83 / 0 10 40 90 Lawrenceburg 70 87 67 82 / 10 10 60 90 Murfreesboro 71 90 67 84 / 0 20 60 100 Waverly 73 91 68 81 / 0 40 70 90 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Clements SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Unger  434 FXUS61 KRNK 182321 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 721 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Keeping isolated showers across western slopes (Tazewell to Western Greenbrier) through 8pm. Clear and calm for the rest of the night. Aviation discussion updated. Climate section updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: The heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday before cooler weather returns late week. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation following the cold front on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1:The heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday before cooler weather returns late week. Southerly flow will persist across the Eastern CONUS through Wednesday due to a large Bermuda high in the western Atlantic. Although moisture at the surface has increased due to this flow, an upper-level ridge has also strengthened and is suppressing convection due to the drier air aloft. This synoptic setup will allow temperatures to remain 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year, with highs in the 80s for the mountains, and low to mid 90s for the Piedmont today and Tuesday. Temperatures are already in the low 90s in parts of the Piedmont just after midday. Therefore, some record highs may be in jeopardy today and tomorrow. A cold front approaches the area on Wednesday, which will keep highs a few degrees cooler in the mountains, though still in the 80s as showers/storms move in late in the day. However, ahead of the front in the Piedmont, highs will likely reach the mid 90s. Although heat indices will not be dangerously high during this heat wave, it has been nearly a year since temperatures have been over 90 degrees for several days in a row. Stay hydrated, limit outdoor activity, and wear light and loose fitted clothing to help reduce the risk of heat illnesses. Relief from the heat arrives by Thursday, once the cold front moves into the area, with much cooler weather and highs in the 60s/70s the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation following the cold front on Wednesday. A Bermuda high pressure looks to develop and remain quasi- stationary across the western Atlantic through the beginning of next week. This will maintain southerly flow and a summer like pattern in place across the region as moisture is advected north into the Southeast from the Gulf and Atlantic. As moisture finally moves into the region, PWATs generally look to recover into the 1.0-1.5 inch range areawide. With ongoing drought conditions, these conditions bode well for multiple rain opportunities over the next week or so starting Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the region from the northwest as an upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec and Ontario. The lagging cold front looks to provide some forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity, with modest deep layer shear in the 20-30 knot range Wednesday afternoon. This amount of deep layer shear combined with instability values in the 500-1000 J/Kg will likely lead to some multicellular clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening across the region. With these shear and instability values, some hail and damaging wind gusts can't be ruled out across the area. With this potential, SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather for portions of central Virginia on Wednesday. By Thursday, this frontal boundary looks to stall across the region providing some forcing for ascent across the region. The presence of mid level disturbances progressing east along the frontal boundary combined with a southward sagging 250mb jet streak looks to increase deep layer shear slightly on Thursday. This may lead to another day with possible severe weather chances as instability looks to remain elevated as well. Beyond Thursday, the aforementioned Bermuda high looks to continue to remain over the western Atlantic, which will keep the moist airmass over the Southeast. Mid-level disturbances look to continue to slide east over the region, which will keep rain chances in the forecast each day through the weekend and into the early portion of next week, likely bringing much needed and beneficial rainfall to the area. While its hard to imagine currently with the drought, if the area does receive repeated heavy rainfall, during this period, the flash flood threat may increase across the area; however, these chances will need to be monitored through the week as these systems move over the region. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to remain at all terminals through the TAF forecast period. Winds will generally remain out of the south/southwest through the TAF period. Light winds expected overnight, then increase to around 10 knots with wind gusting around 15-20 knots at all terminals Tuesday afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will keep the weather quiet and conditions VFR through the beginning of the week. More widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected starting Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. Rain and storm chances and cloud cover linger through the end of the week with the system possibly stalling across the area. This may lead to sub-VFR conditions through the end of the work week. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible Tuesday. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Tuesday, May 19, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 96 in 1962 69 in 2022 93 Lynchburg 93 in 1962 66 in 2022 94 Danville 95 in 1962 69 in 1962 95 Bluefield 89 in 1911 66 in 1977 86 Blacksburg 91 in 1911 61 in 1938 88 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB/JCB/RCS AVIATION...EB/RCS CLIMATE...RCS  456 FXUS63 KLSX 182321 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 621 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into the evening with heavy rainfall in some locations potentially leading to flash flooding. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the early morning hours of Tuesday with the main hazards being damaging winds, large hail, and a brief tornado or two. - Another round of thunderstorms are possible along a cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary threats. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Showers and thunderstorms from this morning laid out west to east on the upwind portion of the MCS. The outflow made it to a Crawford to Washington to Randolph County line before stalling. The 850 mb flow was out of the southwest this morning and has started to back from the south this afternoon. Simultaneously, a low level MCV ejected northeast out of Arkansas this afternoon. As this occurred, convection has begun to intensify on the northern side of the old outflow. Highest convective rates are currently just east of Columbia. Rainfall totals are already averaging 1 to 2 inches across the Flood Watch with isolated totals of 3 to 4 inches. This afternoon into evening, as the LLJ (or 850 mb flow) starts to slightly back and the the MCV ejects northeast convection will finally start to exit the region to the east. The break will be short lived though as another line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the region from the northwest this evening into early Tuesday morning. This line of storms will likely start to dissipate across central Missouri, but how quickly and exactly where matters regarding flood potential. The current thinking is for the line to weaken and dissipate near or just north of the St. Louis metro. However, a cold front will then approach the area from the northwest and cross the region Tuesday afternoon into evening. As this occurs, another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop. Damaging wind gusts and large hail appear to be the primary threat. After the final round of showers and thunderstorms moves across the area Tuesday evening, storm total rainfall amounts (from Monday morning to Tuesday evening) of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts of 6 to 8 inches appear likely. These amounts of rainfall will result in some flash flooding. Residents should monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to seek higher ground if a Flash Flood Warning is issued for your area. BAH && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A surface cold front will be located across southern Missouri Wednesday with most of the region expected to be seasonably cool and dry. The one exception to this is across Reynolds, Iron and Madison counties were another round of thunderstorms will be possible close to the frontal boundary. Thursday into Friday, another mid-level wave will be located over the Mountain West with low level flow out of the southwest. As this occurs, the cold front will wash out with temperatures rising along with a return of showers and thunderstorms. The warm up will then persist into the weekend and early next week as another wave approaches from the west. This warming trend is supported by both the LREF and NBM IQRs. Looking at global ensemble guidance, a general building of mid-level heights is forecast to start this weekend across the Eastern United States and then retrograde west next week. BAH && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026The shortwave that was over Arkansas this morning is currently over eastern Missouri with widespread convection ongoing over the St. Louis terminals. The back edge of the storms are approaching from the west, with a temporary end to the thunderstorms expected at all terminals by 8 PM. Another line of showers and thunderstorms (currently in central Kansas) is then forecast to progress into central Missouri early Tuesday morning. Now that the line has formed, have gone ahead and updated the TAFs with the latest thinking of arrival. KUIN: High confidence that thunderstorms will make it Tuesday morning between 6 and 9z. KCOU/ KJEF: High confidence that showers will make it and moderate confidence that thunder will be observed. Arrival time between 6 and 9z. KSTL/ KSUS/ KCPS: Moderate confidence that showers will make it and low confidence that thunder will be observed. Arrival time between 7 and 10z. By late morning, showers from the decaying line that originated from Kansas will be mostly dissipated. A cold front will then cross KUIN with cigs falling to MVFR/ borderline IFR. The front will then cross or be just north of KCOU and KJEF. On the cool side of the boundary expect sub- VFR cigs. For the St. Louis terminals, the thinking is the cold front will hold northwest of the area until late Tuesday afternoon. Out ahead of the cold front, another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will occur. The lack of confidence is on the location of the cold front and the aforementioned convection. BAH && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Audrain MO-Boone MO- Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Bond IL-Calhoun IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX  605 FXUS61 KALY 182323 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 723 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Convective outlook is relatively unchanged at this time, with marginal to slight risk across much of the area on Tuesday and marginal risk for southern areas on Wednesday. Main threat looks to be damaging winds. Hot and humid weather will peak on Tuesday. Heat Risk slightly increased, with some areas in the major category. Some parts of the mid Hudson Valley, Capital Region and NW CT may see heat index values briefly approach 95 during the mid to late afternoon hours on Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well-above normal temperatures will continue through the middle of the week. With Heat Risk values in the moderate to locally major category, there is an increased risk for heat- related illnesses, especially on Tuesday. 2) Ahead of a cold front, scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially for northern areas. Additional storms are possible on Wednesday afternoon, mainly for southern parts of the area. There is marginal to slight risk for storms to be severe, with damaging winds being the main threat. 3) A return to more seasonable temps is expected late this week with the next chance for widespread rain being next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... On Tuesday, southwest flow aloft will continue to allow for 850 hpa to rise to +15 to +19 C across the region. The low-level flow out of the south to southwest will keep the warm and increasingly muggy air mass in place as well. Although dewpoints will initially be in the mid 60s, model soundings shows excellent mixing to about 775-800 mb, which may help lower dewpoints somewhat during the mid to late afternoon hours. Still, a partly to mostly sunny sky and a southwest wind downsloping off the Catskills will allow for a very warm day for mid May, with high temperatures reaching close to record values for the date, with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Heat index values will likely be similar to actual air temps in the mid to late afternoon hours due to the mixing, so the humidity won't be quite mid summer levels. Still, anyone spending time outdoors on Tuesday will need to practice heat safety, especially since it's early in the season and many people aren't used to this extreme heat just yet this year. WPC Heat Risk is still widespread in the moderate (level 2 of 4), although some areas of major (level 3 of 4) are starting to appear for southern areas. It's borderline Heat Advisory criteria, but based on collaboration with neighboring offices, won't go with one just yet due to heat index values mainly below 95 degrees, but it's rather close. With a cold front coming through, most areas will see cooler temps and a drier air mass starting to arrive on Wednesday, although far southern areas will remain ahead of the front for most of the day. A moderate heat risk is still expected for the mid Hudson Valley with highs still approaching 90 by the afternoon hours before the front arrives late in the day. Heat- related illnesses will still be a concern for southern areas on Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 2... There will be a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly for northern areas. Our area will on the northern edge of the upper level ridging centered over the eastern seaboard, while an upper level disturbance moves across the Upper Great Lakes. As this disturbance approaches, 0-6 km bulk shear will be increasing through the day, with 30-40 kts across northern areas by the afternoon hours. Although mid level lapse rates will be rather poor to start, they may start to increase by late in the day as the upper level height falls get a little closer to the area. Surface-based instability will be sufficient for storms due to the warm and somewhat humid air mass in place, with model values showing about 500-1000 J/kg. CAMs suggest some scattered activity may spread across the Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga Region beginning in the early to mid afternoon hours and it will spread eastward or southeast for late in the day. Some activity will be possible for the I-90/Capital Region corridor by later in the day as well. 2-5 km updraft helicity isn't overly impressive and CAMs haven't been suggesting much organization, but there should be enough overlap of shear and instability to suggest some storms could be strong to severe. The main threat would be damaging wind gusts with any storm on Tuesday. Some additional storms are expected on Wednesday just along or ahead of the cold front for the afternoon hours. Models suggests there will once again be about 30-40 kts of shear with SBCAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range. This would primarily impact the mid Hudson Valley, Taconics and western New England. Once again, damaging wind gusts would be the main threats. SPC has a marginal risk for Wednesday and this looks reasonable at this time. Any threat for storms will decrease as the boundary drops north to south across the region, with the front exiting our area by the early evening hours. KEY MESSAGE 3... Behind the front, cooler and drier air will arrive for Thursday into the late week. Daytime temps will only be in the 60s for valley areas for Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s, with some mid to upper 30s possible for the highest terrain of the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. A widespread rainfall is expected over the holiday weekend, although exact QPF, timing and duration of precip is still in question. Models have suggested this could be a slow-moving system, although haven't been consistent on this just yet. With steady rainfall and plenty of clouds, temps could be held down below normal during the rainfall, which may impact holiday weekend plans. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00z Wednesday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 7:20 PM EDT, with VFR conditions expected to prevail through most if not all of the TAF period. Just a few passing mid and high clouds expected tonight into tomorrow, with additional daytime cumulus clouds developing by late tomorrow morning with bases 6000- 8000 ft. An approaching upper disturbance may lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Low confidence on if any showers/storms will occur and if so how widespread they will be, but have introduced prob30s at ALB/GFL/PSF where confidence is highest to at least mention the possibility. MVFR to possibly IFR vsbys within any heavier showers/storms, but otherwise VFR conditions persist through at least 00z Wednesday. Winds will be from the S/SE at 5-10 kt tonight, but with a W/SW low- level jet at 35-40 kt moving overhead have continued mention of LLWS from around midnight tonight through 12z tomorrow. Winds tomorrow morning shift to the S/SW at 5-10 kt, and then by late morning to the W/SW at 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt through the afternoon and early evening. Locally stronger gusts also possibly with any thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ063>066. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...35  578 FXUS63 KILX 182323 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 623 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Repeating rounds of showers and storms could cause flash flooding south of a Shelbyville to Paris line through this evening. A Flood Watch is in effect for these areas. - Additional thunderstorms will develop along an advancing cold front on Tuesday, with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms east of Interstate 55. Damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall would be the most likely hazards. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A line of showers and thunderstorms has stalled out south of the I- 72 corridor this afternoon. Although wind shear has increased over this area since this morning, instability has significantly waned and has prevented storms from largely becoming organized. Despite this, cannot completely rule out a strong updraft or two over the next few hours in far southeast Illinois where RAP mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE of 1000+ J/kg. If any strong storms do occur, damaging winds would be possible. The main threat through the evening will be heavy rainfall with PWATS up around 1.5 to 2 inches and hourly rainfall rates up around 1 inch in the heaviest of storms. A Flood Watch has been issued for areas south of a Shelbyville to Paris line through this evening. Further west, additional thunderstorms have developed over the central Plains ahead of a cold front and will track east through tonight, approaching western Illinois sometime after midnight. These storms should weaken as they enter the area due to lack of instability, though they could still produce gusty subsevere winds as they track through the western half of the state. Most of the shower and storm activity should subside by or before daybreak. The cold front will approach the I-55 corridor around midday Tuesday and be the focus for additional storm development by afternoon. However, one limiting factor will be how long cloud cover from the overnight storms lingers, which would ultimately limit our destabilization potential. CAMS suggest destabilization will be most likely in east-central and southeast Illinois by mid to late afternoon in a moderately sheared environment. However, this appears to be highly conditional at this point. If storms do develop, damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall will be the primary concerns. A drier and cooler period shapes up for midweek as high pressure ridging slides through the Upper Midwest. This will be relatively short-lived as upper troughing moves into the central US and shortwave energy sends several rounds of precipitation through Illinois this weekend into early next week. While the severe weather risk appears low through this period, better moisture/instability building by late weekend/early next week will support thunderstorms at times. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have settled over portions of southern Illinois this evening with the northern edge of the precip shield potentially clipping the I-72 corridor over the next few hours. Otherwise, attention turns back west as the next round of showers and storms expands in coverage across the Great Plains/Mid Missouri River Valley this evening. This line of storms will reach the Illinois River Valley overnight, weakening as it pushes into central Illinois. A few showers or weak storms may reach as far east as the I-55 corridor, with confidence lowering further east. The wind field may be disrupted for several hours behind the line of storms, but generally favors a southerly direction until a cold front comes through Tuesday afternoon turning winds out of the NW. MVFR ceilings will accompany thefrontal passage Tuesday. One other concern for tonight will be the potential for LLWS as 40-50 kt winds around 2000 feet develop. Poor agreement between the models and the expectation for surface winds to remain somewhat elevated tonight precludes LLWS mention at this time. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for ILZ054>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...NMA DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...Deubelbeiss  514 FXUS63 KTOP 182322 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 622 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms becoming numerous early to mid afternoon today and spreading east to southeast this evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all quite possible. - Flash flooding remains a concern through tonight especially where heavy rain fall Sunday night. - Gusty south winds on track for the next several hours in southwestern areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Warm, humid airmass was surging north into central Kansas ahead of a cold front toward a nearly-stationary front just northeast of northeast Kansas with a modest upper wave just upstream. Instability of 3000 J/kg already commonplace in central Kansas at 17Z with 40-50 knots of deep-layer shear. Vectors for this layer remain close to parallel to the front so there is some uncertainty in how long storms can remain discrete, but some backing of low-level flow and otherwise good setup brings all severe hazards in play. Main area of concern over the next few hours is north-central Kansas with storms spreading east and southeast and becoming more widespread with time. Threats should turn more to wind versus strong tornado in eastern areas as mode shifts to more linear. Overall a more progressive system should keep storm residence somewhat limited, but areas that saw heavy rain Sunday night will not take much more rain to experience flash flooding and intense updrafts with PW values around 1.5 inches will bring quick rainfall. Storms push southeast before dawn with flash flooding threat falling off, though rivers and creeks may be high for a few more days. Surface winds Next few days continue to look benign with modified Canadian high pressure in place with cooler temperatures. Moisture return in the mid-levels supports at least moderate precipitation chances Thursday into Thursday night but instability remains modest. A more unstable airmass should return around the holiday weekend though forcing for ascent is not readily apparent. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Line of strong/severe thunderstorms pushing through KMHX currently with continued eastward movement of main convective line. TEMPO group through 01-05z for KTOP and KFOE for TSRA with viz 1SM and MVFR/IFR conditions. Conditions improve from west to east later in forecast period, around 05z for western TAF sites; 10z for eastern TAF sites. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011- KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035- KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058- KSZ059. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037- KSZ038-KSZ054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...JTW  516 FXUS63 KUNR 182322 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 522 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread precipitation tapers off this afternoon and evening. - Cold temperatures continue with a freeze warning in effect Tuesday morning. - Gradual warmup mid-week with precipitation chances returning towards the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 128 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Current Water Vapor and upper air models show troughing just east of the Rockies running through the northern and central plains, with upper ridges over the New England region and off the west coast. 19Z surface analysis depicts a surface low to our east over MN, surface high over central MT. Radar shows widespread precipitation across the forecast area, with some of the higher elevations receiving light accumulations of snow today. Winds are currently breezy out of the northwest to north, with temperatures in the 30s to low 40s. Precipitation will taper off from west to east late afternoon through the evening, as trough slides eastward today. Cool temperatures continue tonight as clouds clear up and light northwest winds continue. Much of the area is expected to reach near or below freezing overnight. HREF probability for temps to reach at or below freezing sit at 80-100% for areas from the Black Hills and west. Further east will be a bit trickier as cloud cover will linger into tonight as the trough slowly shifts eastward. A Freeze warning has been issued for most of our plains areas, with a frost advisory in effect for part of south-central SD for Tuesday morning. Brief and weak ridge sets over the region mid-week, resulting in drier conditions and a warming trend towards near seasonable. Another wave rides southeast from western Canada towards the northern plains later in the week, increasing chances for precipitation late Thursday into Friday. Shortwave ridging moves over the weekend, bringing warmer temps back in as well. By Sunday/Monday the region should see highs climb back into the 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued At 519 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 An area of precipitation (rain on the plains/snow up high) and low clouds will lift northeast this evening. Widespread MVFR/IFR (local LIFR with the snow) conditions will slowly improve from west to east overnight with lingering MVFR/IFR conditions from KD07-KICR Tuesday morning. VFR conditions are expected all locations after 19/18z. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-072>078. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ046-047. WY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ054>056-058>060. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...Helgeson  554 FXUS66 KEKA 182323 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 423 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Northerly have eased substantially, but will turn breezy in the afternoons. Clear and dry conditions will remain through the week with a warming trend through Thursday. Temperatures will trend lower through the weekend. .KEY MESSAGES... -Northerly winds are much lighter, but will be breezy in the afternoons. -Generally clear skies and dry conditions, even along shore, through the week. -Conditions will warm through Thursday with highs in the interior peaking near 90. && .DISCUSSION...Northerly winds have subsided substantially since what was experienced over the weekend. Winds will generally turn breezy in the afternoons this week. Overnight lows will be on the chilly side again tonight, but will begin moderating this week with building high pressure. Some areas of localized frost will be possible in the Hayfork and Larabee Valley Tuesday morning. Conditions will remain very dry with warming temperatures through the week. Highs will most likely top out around 90 for the interior on Thursday. This will constitute only a minor HeatRisk for this time of year. Hotter temperatures will help reform a marine inversion and will increase chances for coastal stratus and fog. && .AVIATION...Northerly winds eased for a few hours from 12z to 18z at KCEC and have returned with gusts up to 25kts and will continue into the evening as NBM shows up to 30kts of gusts possible before sunset. LAMP guidance suggests northerlies backing off around 05z tonight for KCEC. KACV has had recent northerly wind gusts up to 24kts and sustained winds 14-16kts, these are expected to be easing by 06z and veering southerly overnight 5kts or below. There could be a few hours of LIFR/IFR around 15-16z Tuesday. Northerly winds gusting at KUKI have been intermittent since 18z, LAMP guidance suggests northerlies with sustained winds below 10kts after 03z. Despite gusty winds, there is not much of a signal for LLWS as the model soundings do not show the threshold for velocity or direction meeting the criteria for wind shear. /EYS && .MARINE...The pressure gradient relaxes slightly and the strongest winds move farther off the coast as the high pressure builds in. However, a large area of gale force gusts around 34-45 kts expected across all zones, with the strongest winds downwind of Cape Mendocino. Steep to very steep, hazardous seas will continue with the elevated winds. Conditions will remain hazardous across the waters for much of the work week with strong to gale force gusts north winds and steep to very steep seas. Gale force winds and very steep seas are forecast to persists across the outer waters through Friday. /ZVS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450-455. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  851 FXUS63 KMQT 182327 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 727 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm late this afternoon. - Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight. Some of the storms could be severe, mainly over the southern half of the U.P. Heavy rainfall is also possible. - Cooler than normal temperatures Tuesday through the rest of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 The primary focus of the forecast is on the next 24 hours as a dynamic low pressure system lifts through the region. Quiet and benign weather follows for most of the remainder of the week. Latest GOES water vapor imagery place a deep trough over the Rockies and Plains which is moving east. An embedded shortwave over CO is emerging where a sfc low is organizing. These two features lift to northwest WI by tonight, supported by a right entrance region of the upper level jet and strong LLJ, bringing another round of showers and storms to Upper MI for tonight. Afternoon visible satellite imagery has shown a brief window of clearing passing over the western UP allowing for temps to warm into the 60s to mid 70s interior west. Cooler temps are noted near Lake Superior in the mid 40s to mid 50s where a lake breeze is moving onshore. Where transient showers lingered this morning in the east and cloud cover has been stubborn, temps are in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Not much further warming is anticipated given the brief window of clearing, lake breeze influences, and stationary boundary pressing in from the west. Latest SPC meso-analysis indicates some surface instability developing, which is anticipated to increase up to ~1250 J/kg by this evening per 12Z HREF mean as Tds rise into the upper 50s to low 60s. While marginal instability builds this afternoon, some isolated showers and storms are possible (20-40% chance). That said, ~30 kts of shear and little forcing will leave convection short lived and weak. The LLJ moving in tonight significantly increases shear after sunset while instability begins diminishing. With cold front convection well to the south, decreasing SBCAPE/low level lapse rates, and a cap strengthening, it's no surprise the UP (and most of WI) has been completely removed from the SPC tornado outlook. MUCAPE and mid level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km linger into tonight, providing a low chance for strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds. The downward trend is also reflected in the latest SPC hail/wind outlooks, downgrading the northern tier of the UP to just general thunderstorms with a marginal risk (~5%) over the south. PWATs ~1.5 inch with the main wave tonight will yield rainfall totals of a few hundreths to around 0.5 inches, highest amounts over the west where there is a 25-50% chance for amounts up to 1 inch. This is captured by the WPC marginal risk of excessive rainfall (~5% chance of exceeding Flash Flood Guidance). Otherwise temps fall into the 40s and 50s tonight, coldest northwest. Isolated to scattered showers linger into Tuesday, however instability will likely be elevated and only briefly uncapped in the east/south-central for a few hours at best. Thunder is in the forecast, but strong to severe storms are not expected. Highs in the east half on Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s, lower in the northwestern UP where mid 40s to mid 50s are expected. From there, the low departs to the northeast and high pressure over the Plains replaces it. This maintains over the Great Lakes through most of the work week yielding dry weather until the weekend. Lingering troughing aloft keeps colder northwest flow through Wednesday, resulting in temps between 5-15 degrees below normal; highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s. A warming pattern is then expected toward next weekend as mid level ridging slowly builds over the southeast and extends up into the Great Lakes. Another trough over the Rockies on Friday looks to move toward the Upper Great Lakes during the weekend, bringing back precip to the UP. Instability with this is lacking, so impactful strong to severe storms are not anticipated. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 727 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Conditions tank to LIFR/airport mins across the terminals tonight as sfc N'rly flow brings the cool, moist marine layer onshore, creating areas of FG across the region. In addition, SHRA and TSRA are expected to move across the terminals throughout the overnight hours; while this may alleviate some vis concerns at times, cigs are still expected to hang onto LIFR conditions. As a second low makes its way into Lake Superior tonight into Tuesday, expect for some LLWS to move over SAW and to a lesser extent CMX and IWD (more marginal further west). Expect the winds to veer with time tonight through Tuesday, becoming more S'rly this evening before once again becoming W/NW'rly behind the low on Tuesday. Expect the winds to become gusty by Tuesday afternoon, which should help clear out any remaining FG over the terminals as well as increase cigs to MVFR to potentially VFR closer to the end of the TAF period (Tuesday evening). && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 A low pressure moving northeast over Upper Michigan and Lake Superior tonight into Tuesday. This tightens the pressure gradient and increases northeast winds over the west and north-central portions of the lake to 20-30 kts tonight. As the low moves overhead, winds become northwest and strongest winds shift from the west half to the east as colder air moves in. Probabilities of gales to 35 kts are 25% or less, highest in the east Tuesday afternoon. Showers and storms are expected with this system into Tuesday morning, however severe storms are no longer expected. This rainfall will prolong fog over the east into Tuesday morning. High pressure returns winds to 20 kts or less by Wednesday afternoon, winds likely maintain light into the weekend. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ244-264>266. Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ245>247. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ248>251. Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ221-248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...TAP MARINE...77  802 FXUS64 KMEG 182326 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 626 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Hot and humid conditions are expected through Tuesday, with high temperatures reaching or exceeding 90 degrees in many locations. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by Tuesday afternoon, with a low confidence severe weather threat. The main concerns with any strong to severe thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist daily beginning Tuesday through the remainder of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 This morning's upper air analysis depicts an upper level ridge over portions of the Carolinas and the Southeast U.S. with an upper-level trough located over the Rockies. Southwest flow aloft is present from the Southern Plains up to the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes Region. Latest surface analysis places a surface low over southern Minnesota with a weak cold front trailing southwest into the Central and Southern Plains. A warm and humid atmosphere is in place across the Mid-South with 12 PM temperatures in the 80s. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over portions of northeast Arkansas. This convective activity is associated with a subtle, but weak mid- level shortwave trough moving across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley. Latest mesoanalysis yields surface-based CAPE values around 2000 J/kg, with weak mid-level lapse rates and overall shear generally less than 20 kts. Short-term CAMs indicate a low chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms north of I-40 towards the MO/KY border into this evening but confidence remains low with the overall coverage in the weakly sheared environment. Short-term models continue to indicate a weak cold front dropping into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Upstream showers and thunderstorms are expected to weaken as they move into the Lower Mississippi on Tuesday. This convective activity will eventually produce outflow boundaries, which will provide a focus for afternoon convection. Shear is expected to remain weak with best upper-level support remaining displaced to the north. Thus, convective development is expected to occur mainly during the mid/late afternoon during peak heating with a mostly unorganized pulse type convective mode. Overall confidence remains low with the severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday with the threat waning by early Tuesday evening with the loss of daytime instability. Mid to long range models indicate this front will remain stalled out across the area through late week. Precipitable water values will remain high around 1.75 inches with any heavy rainfall threat remaining localized in the absence of any appreciable upper-level support. This boundary is anticipated to retreat north as a warm front with rain chances continuing into the weekend, especially during peak heating. Temperatures will remain near normal through most of the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions will likely continue through at least the first half of the current TAF period. There is currently some SHRA/TSRA activity across western portions of the airspace, but confidence in any impacts to JBR and MEM are too low to warrant mention at this time. Otherwise, the main area of uncertainty will be generally after 20Z, when TSRA/SHRA moves through the airspace. This could lead to temporary vis/cig drops, but location and timing is highly uncertain. For this reason, have mentioned as a PROB30 for MEM, MKL, JBR, and TUP tomorrow afternoonat this time. Winds will remain southerly, becoming gusty once again by mid-morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future, with minRH values remaining above 40%. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the Mid-South beginning on Tuesday through the remainder of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...CMA  837 FXUS65 KABQ 182327 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 527 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 517 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 - The threat of rapid fire spread continues today with the most critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions focused over eastern New Mexico. - Hazardous crosswinds will impact high profile vehicles along with lowering visibility due to blowing dust this afternoon. - Afternoon thunderstorm activity increases over eastern New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A windy day is coming to fruition over northern and central New Mexico today, as an upper low has rounded UT and is now starting to lift into CO as a shortwave. This morning's 12Z model runs had lower initial condition wind speeds at 700 mb, but it should be noted there is a dearth of 1200UTC raobs to assimilate nowadays. Regardless, speeds of 30-45 kt were modeled this morning, and these will reduce slightly with the speed max transitioning farther northeast through the afternoon. Gusts have already exceeded 50 mph at Las Vegas, NM and more sites will join soon. Blowing dust is still a concern, and we will be monitoring the need for any Blowing Dust Advisories through the afternoon. Shower activity was been scant, with radar echoes largely staying north of our northern zones, and our window of opportunity for precip today has passed. Winds will start to decouple in western and central NM this evening, but the backdoor cold front will send rapid pressure rises into northeastern NM, as the backdoor front plunges in. The front will spill down all of the eastern plains before dawn Tuesday, bringing gusty northerly winds, and higher dewpoints. The front is now modeled to advance farther west by some higher resolution models, spilling into the Rio Grande shortly after dawn, and this would invoke a gusty gap/canyon wind at vulnerable locations such as the Glorieta Pass and eastern ABQ. Winds have been increased here accordingly. Through the afternoon Tuesday, winds in the eastern NM plains will veer southerly while a large swath of convection breaks out over TX where the front will meet the rich Gulf moisture. Another upper level trough will move into UT, essentially phasing with pressure falls east of the Baja peninsula and creating a sharper trough upstream of us than what was modeled just a couple days ago. This will keep relatively strong southwesterlies aloft (15-25 kt at 700 mb) feeding over NM and it will also help draw the easterly wind into areas like Santa Fe and Albuquerque during the morning. This alignment will also place a north-south oriented corridor of stronger winds over central NM near the Rio Grande Tuesday afternoon where gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common. There also is sufficient mid level moisture modeled to yield high-based cumulus and virga over north central zones Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will run several degrees cooler (and 10 to 15 degrees below normal) in eastern zones Tuesday afternoon while western and central zones warm closer to seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Surface high pressure will continue to build into the central and south central plains early Wednesday with a synoptic east southeasterly surface flow becoming established into west TX and eastern NM. Very high dewpoints will be pooling in southern and eastern TX, moderating some as the moist air infiltrates the higher plains in our eastern zones. Widespread low stratus clouds would likely accompany this moist easterly push along with drizzle and sprinkles Wednesday morning. True to form, the NAM continues to be more aggressive, bringing the moisture and easterly winds all the way westward to the Rio Grande while other synoptic models keep it over the eastern plains. In fact, the NAM/RRFS are so persistent with the easterly surface flow well into the afternoon, that it keeps the low stratus entrenched over much of eastern NM and does not allow the boundary layer to destabilize or exploit the newfound moisture for convection. In contrast, the GFS and other synoptic members mix the moisture eastward, allowing a sharp dewpoint gradient and dryline to form over the eastern counties where destabilization and convective initiation would ensue Wednesday afternoon. The NBM offers a good blend to the dewpoint extremes, but produces an artificially soft gradient that will not likely be representative of reality: a much sharper north-south oriented dryline. Have tried to steer the forecast dewpoints/POPs/Sky towards a more realistic conceptual model, but this will be tricky to pinpoint the placement of the dryline and any subsequent storms. The NBM plastered very high POPs across many eastern zones, and this was tempered and lowered. Through Thursday, two upper level features are becoming more discretely apparent, the residual weak trough over the upper Baja peninsula and another shortwave trough dropping into the central Rockies. These look to stay far enough away to not pose much impact to NM weather, and Thursday's forecast will hinge on low layer moisture and how far west it sloshes during the early morning before mixing back out eastward into the afternoon. The latest consensus is carrying the moisture (40's - 50's dewpoints) farther east and closer to the eastern NM and west TX border. This will of course reduce chances for deep, moist convection with a smaller subset of eastern counties observing isolated to scattered cells. The central Rockies trough would then seem to drag drier westerly flow into eastern NM going into Friday, but there is the potential for another backdoor cold front to disrupt this, keeping quite a bit of uncertainty in the dewpoint/POP forecast for Friday. Should a good frontal intrusion occur, moisture would linger over eastern zones into Friday night and Saturday with veering winds reintroducing the prospects for deep, moist convection and perhaps a few strong to severe storms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 517 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Strong west to southwest winds will persist through mid evening areawide before diminishing. Gusts btw 30 and 45 knots will persist across central and eastern areas through 02-03Z. Smoke from the Seven Cabins fire will obscure visibility from the Capitan Mtns northeast toward KTCC. A backdoor cold front will enter northeast NM around 06Z and press southward across the plains through Tuesday morning bringing breezy conditions to the area. MVFR cigs will also develop across northeast NM behind the front, and persist through approximately 16-17Z Tue. The front will push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain around sunrise. Breezy to windy gap winds will develop at both KABQ and KSAF. During the afternoon, sprinkles and/or virga showers will bring erratic wind gusts to north central and northwest NM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A fire weather growing pattern is underway with widespread critical to locally extreme conditions today. As forecast, the strongest winds have been focused over the central mountain chain eastward, and more specifically the northeast highlands where gusts are reaching 55 to 60 mph. Many areas are also already observing less than 10% RH. Winds will start to abate in western and central zones after sunset, and while winds will stay gusty in northeastern areas, they will be shifting northerly with higher dewpoints (and rising RH) as a cool, moist backdoor front arrives. Winds in the plains will veer in direction, turning south through the day Tuesday with breezy speeds persisting. It is also still forecast to be breezy in western zones Tuesday, and this will lead to a convergence zone over central NM with southwesterlies and southeasterlies meeting over the Rio Grande and central mountain chain where wind speeds will be enhanced (gusts of 30 to 35 mph). This centralized area of enhanced winds will introduce a couple to a few hours of marginal to spotty critical conditions Tuesday afternoon, namely in the lower Rio Grande valley. Both the spatial coverage and duration of these critical conditions were not widespread or long enough to justify doing a Fire Weather Watch for FWZ106, but if forecast wind speeds increase a bit more this could quickly change. Some breeziness will redevelop in similar areas on Wednesday, once again leading to localized critical fire weather conditions in the lower Rio Grande valley, but gusts appear to be slightly lower than what is forecast on Tuesday. The long duration wind threat reduces more into Thursday and the remainder of the work week, as weak and ill-defined upper level features become established and reduce wind fields aloft. This will keep wind concerns confined to thunderstorm outflows in eastern NM and occasionally in central gaps/canyons when moisture intrudes from the east. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 39 75 43 77 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 30 71 37 73 / 0 10 10 10 Cuba............................ 38 72 42 74 / 0 10 10 10 Gallup.......................... 34 74 37 74 / 0 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 38 73 41 71 / 0 10 5 0 Grants.......................... 37 78 40 77 / 0 10 5 0 Quemado......................... 40 75 43 74 / 0 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 78 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 41 75 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 38 77 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 43 81 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 30 65 36 65 / 0 10 30 30 Los Alamos...................... 46 71 50 71 / 0 10 10 30 Pecos........................... 40 69 43 69 / 0 10 10 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 67 42 68 / 0 10 20 40 Red River....................... 31 60 33 61 / 0 10 30 50 Angel Fire...................... 23 64 32 64 / 0 20 20 60 Taos............................ 34 72 42 72 / 0 10 20 30 Mora............................ 36 65 41 66 / 0 10 20 60 Espanola........................ 43 78 46 78 / 0 10 10 30 Santa Fe........................ 45 73 48 73 / 0 10 5 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 43 77 46 78 / 0 10 5 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 52 80 54 80 / 0 10 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 81 55 82 / 0 10 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 83 49 84 / 0 10 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 81 53 83 / 0 10 5 5 Belen........................... 49 85 50 86 / 0 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 49 82 52 82 / 0 10 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 46 84 48 84 / 0 10 5 5 Corrales........................ 49 82 52 83 / 0 10 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 48 84 49 84 / 0 10 5 5 Placitas........................ 49 79 52 79 / 0 10 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 50 81 53 81 / 0 10 5 10 Socorro......................... 52 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 75 49 74 / 0 10 10 20 Tijeras......................... 46 77 49 77 / 0 10 10 20 Edgewood........................ 42 76 46 76 / 0 10 10 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 39 78 41 77 / 0 10 10 30 Clines Corners.................. 42 71 44 68 / 0 5 20 40 Mountainair..................... 44 77 46 78 / 0 0 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 46 77 47 77 / 0 0 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 53 79 53 79 / 0 0 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 44 73 44 72 / 0 0 10 20 Capulin......................... 33 61 38 57 / 0 0 30 40 Raton........................... 36 66 42 63 / 0 0 40 60 Springer........................ 39 69 43 65 / 0 0 30 40 Las Vegas....................... 39 66 43 64 / 0 0 30 50 Clayton......................... 39 66 43 60 / 0 0 30 50 Roy............................. 41 68 44 62 / 0 0 30 40 Conchas......................... 47 76 49 68 / 0 0 30 50 Santa Rosa...................... 45 76 48 67 / 0 0 30 50 Tucumcari....................... 48 78 50 70 / 0 0 30 50 Clovis.......................... 47 78 51 68 / 0 0 30 70 Portales........................ 49 81 51 71 / 0 0 30 70 Fort Sumner..................... 48 81 51 70 / 0 0 30 50 Roswell......................... 56 86 57 77 / 0 0 20 50 Picacho......................... 52 80 51 74 / 0 0 20 50 Elk............................. 50 79 49 76 / 0 0 10 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-106-109- 121>126. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ210-212>216-223- 226>234. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...34  930 FXUS62 KTBW 182329 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 729 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the next week. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly in the afternoon to early evening hours. - Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Scattered storms linger around the Tampa Bay region this evening and these will slowly move offshore through the next few hours. Another round of showers and storms closer to the west coast is expected tomorrow afternoon and evening. No updates needed to the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Scattered storms will affect mainly KPIE and KTPA for the next hour or so, then VFR conditions are expected overnight. For tomorrow, a very similar pattern is expected, with more scattered storms near coastal sites in the afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 91 74 91 / 30 60 20 40 FMY 74 93 74 93 / 10 60 10 60 GIF 73 91 72 91 / 0 30 10 30 SRQ 73 93 73 92 / 30 70 20 40 BKV 70 94 69 93 / 10 40 10 30 SPG 75 94 75 93 / 30 70 20 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Carlisle  914 FXUS63 KAPX 182328 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 728 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. - Sharply cooler weather arrives Wednesday and Thursday, with frost/freeze concerns Tuesday night through Thursday night (especially on Wednesday night). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1207 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Moisture rich warm sector spreading northeast across the Great Lakes this afternoon as deep layer southwest flow continues between southeast Conus ridging and deep troughing rotating across the Intermountain West. Showers and thunderstorms beginning to percolate across northern Lake Michigan along decaying cold pool convergence (from overnight convection to our west). Surface based warming and attendant northward expansion of over 500 joules/kg of mixed layer cape within marginally supportive convective layer shear should continue to allow intensification of this activity as it races east across our area. Deep upstream troughing will continue to lift northeast, steadily shearing out as it crosses into southern Canada and the northern Great Lakes later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Attendant cold front expected to cross our area on Tuesday, with additional showers and storms expected to fire in the pre-frontal warm sector until its crossing. Sharply cooler airmass follows this passing wave, setting the stage for additional frost/freeze concerns for the middle of the week. Primary Forecast Concerns: Shower/storm evolution and severe potential through Tuesday. Secondary focus on just how cold we become through the middle of the week (those frost/freeze concerns). Details: Expect upscale growth to convective activity as it quickly slides northeast across our area the remainder of this afternoon. Combination of instability, those marginal convective layer shear profiles, and expected congealing cold pool dynamics should support some isolated severe potential, with gusty winds and marginally severe size hail the primary concerns. However, slightly backed low level wind fields down near Saginaw Bay will also support a very low risk for tornadoes as well. Loss of surface based instability should end the most aggressive shower/storm concerns quicky early this evening. Focus for most numerous storms and greatest severe potential focuses off to our west tonight in vicinity of primary wave and attendant east advancing cold front. May see some of this decaying activity slide into our area later tonight/early Tuesday morning. Not expecting anything too significant with this activity as surface rooted instability core is lost by then. Cold front will work steadily east across our area on Tuesday...exiting off to our east by early Tuesday evening. Front becomes increasingly detached from any large scale support, though moisture rich pre-frontal environment and forced low level convergence will continue to support shower and storm generation. Severe potential tied to just how much heating/surface rooted instability generation can occur prior to frontal passage. Think ongoing showers and cloud cover may limit this potential, with focus for severe storms centering to our south and southeast. SPC maintains just marginal severe weather potential across northern lower Michigan...themselves focusing on pre-frontal destabilization concerns. Focus quickly shifts to the arrival of a much cooler airmass as Canada originated high pressure drops into the western Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. Simple breadth of cold air advection looks to drop temperatures down into the 30s across a good portion of the area Tuesday night, although maintenance of gusty northwest winds will likely prevent much freeze or frost concerns. A chilly Wednesday...when some areas will likely not get out of the 40s...gives way to what is shaping up to be a cold Wednesday night. Pattern recognition definitely supports such, with high pressure centering directly overhead supplying what should be clear skies and light/calm winds...all within an already exceptionally chilly airmass. Widespread lows well down into the lower and middle 30s looks easily attainable, and fully believe some of our traditional colder interior areas will make a run into the 20s. Definitely something to monitor given our recent warm temperatures. Conditions modify some Thursday and Thursday night, but could still see more frost and potential freeze concerns early Friday morning. Current trends support slow moderation through the weekend, with readings at least approaching more normal levels on Sunday. Other than the chill, extended period looks far less active, with perhaps some better rain chances returning during the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 728 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Widespread showers/storms are exiting east, leaving APN shortly. Lower clouds are flaring up behind this, with a period of MVFR cigs expected. Showers will return late late tonight, and MVFR/IFR cigs are likely after 09Z (IFR mainly at CIU/PLN). Additional showers/perhaps TSRA expected during the day Tuesday. S to sw winds will increase again on Tuesday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...MSB AVIATION...JZ  873 FXUS63 KGRR 182327 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 727 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Line of Storms moving out this evening - More storms on Tuesday - Frost/Freeze Wednesday Night across the North && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Severe Line of Storms moving out this evening A line of storms that was well forecast by the Hi-Res ARW will be moving across the southern half of the forecast area this afternoon and moving off to the east this evening. Downdraft CAPE values of over a 100 J/kg in the airmass the line is moving through means downbursts with severe wind gusts to 60 mph are the main threat with this line. Scattered storms with isolated severe winds and/or hail are possible across the north. The severe threat winds down this evening as the line of storms moves off the the east with little to no additional QPF expected overnight with the atmosphere being effectively stabilized. - More storms on Tuesday Surface cold front moves southeast across the forecast area on Tuesday afternoon attended by scattered strong to severe storms as surface based CAPE approaches 1500 J/kg. Best chance for severe weather will be across the southeast forecast area where instability is greatest. Deep layer shear greater than 40 knots will also aid the cause. The cold front will move southeast of the forecast area during the evening, ending the threat with a much cooler airmass moving back in. - Frost/Freeze Wednesday Night across the North Canadian surface high building in on Wednesday and Wednesday night with dew points dropping into the 20s and 30s will lead to min temps cold enough for Frost/Freeze headlines across about the northern third or half of the forecast area. Temperatures moderate by the end of the week as low pressure moves up from the south bringing rain by Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 724 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Showers and storms have moved east of the terminals and dry wx is expected the rest of the night. Southwest winds will be gusty overnight as we watch another line of storms develop to the west and move east. Models continue to show the line decaying toward morning when it approaches Lower MI and then redevelop during the afternoon when instability gets a bit stronger. The afternoon storms, should they occur, will mainly affect LAN/JXN and we include prob30 groups for this potential. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 No changes to the SCA. Winds and waves will remain hazardous to small craft through Tuesday. A cold front moves through late Tuesday and northwest winds could gust to 25 knots into Wednesday before diminishing Wednesday night as high pressure builds in. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ844- 845. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ846>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...04 MARINE...Ostuno  868 FXUS64 KLCH 182327 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 627 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and warm conditions will prevail today with a couple of small showers or thunderstorms possible this afternoon. - An unsettled pattern will develop beginning Tuesday afternoon and continue through the end of the week with high precipitation chances each day. - Several inches of rain are expected Tuesday through next Monday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A few, light showers are being observed early this afternoon across parts of southeast Texas and northern Louisiana as they wrap around the northern periphery of a weak upper level ridge centered over the gulf. This ridge should limit any afternoon convection to just a couple of small and weak storms at best. At the surface, the region remains caught between high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and a low over the southern plains that is expected to produce severe weather over portions of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. The result is another day of breezy southeasterly winds. Observations thus far have indicated sustained winds between 10-15 knots with gusts as high as 30. While certainly enough to blow around unsecured objects, the sustained winds are expected to remain below wind advisory criteria. A much wetter pattern is on the near horizon as a weak frontal boundary is expected to dig to the coast tomorrow afternoon before stalling. A series of upper level disturbances will move up the Texas gulf coast roughly along the boundary producing wave after wave of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through early next week. Unfortunately, this also includes the holiday weekend and those with outdoor plans should have an indoor alternative. Latest ensemble QPF totals generally range from 2-4 inches through the week although higher amounts are likely across areas that see training of heavier rain. WPC has the entire region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday through Friday and this will likely be extended through the weekend. The overall risk of flooding will likely increase with each successive day as soils become saturated and area waterways fill. Jones && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Gusty southerly winds feeding into low pressure over the Plains will decrease some after sunset, however boundary layer winds will stay up enough during the night that fog is not expected with MVFR ceilings developing below the cap. Breezy southerly winds will again occur after sunrise on Tuesday with ceilings gradually lifting to VFR after 19/18z. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Onshore winds around 20 knots will continue this afternoon and tonight maintaining seas in the 3-6 feet range. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this evening. Winds will weaken Tuesday through the end of the week. Precipitation chances increase significantly Tuesday night through next Monday as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances produce several waves of precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Breezy southerly winds gusting as high as 30 knots will continue this afternoon before diminishing this evening. Dewpoints in the 70s will keep minimum RH values in the 60-70% range this week. A wet pattern will get underway Tuesday evening through early next week as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances provide waves of precipitation each day. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ450-452-470- 472. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...07  932 FXUS64 KSHV 182329 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 629 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, particularly across the northwestern ArkLaTex. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two will be possible. - Widespread rainfall will continue on a daily basis for the remainder of the week ahead and into the weekend, potentially leading to flash flooding concerns. - Temperatures will trend below normal as the week continues, due to prolonged cloud cover, with highs in the 80s and lows int he 60s throughout. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Southwest flow aloft will supply the ArkLaTex with abundant moisture throughout the majority of this forecast period. The next 24 hours or so will see the last genuinely dry portions of this forecast for the region, with only limited slight chances of showers and storms this evening to the southeast and northwest. Today's afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s will drop into the low to middle 70s by daybreak Tuesday, which looks to get off to a warm, muggy and overcast start. The main event looks to begin tomorrow, as a shortwave trough and attendant surface front swing into the Middle Red River Valley, kicking up our first wave of showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall will return from the northwest, pushing out of southern Oklahoma as early as tomorrow morning, spreading south and east across the entire CWA by midafternoon. As previously advertised, these storms may become strong to severe, with the latest guidance indicating the greatest risk developing during the afternoon hours and continuing into the evening as a cluster of intensifying convection attempts to organize into a squall line as it moves south and east across the ArkLaTex. The principal hazards associated with these storms look to be large hail developing from discrete convection and damaging winds from both isolated clusters and a potential squall line. The threat for tornadoes is comparably low, but cannot be ruled out together, especially in the form of brief rotation developing within a squall line. The organized severe weather threat looks to conclude by late evening Tuesday, but the rainfall will just be beginning. A weak upper level disturbance embedded in the southwest flow will meander very slowly northeast through the middle of the week, as its attendant surface boundary likewise stalls across the region, establishing a firehose of moisture which will be aimed at the ArkLaTex throughout the remainder of the week and into the weekend. This does not look to take the form of continuous rainfall, per se, but frequent enough impulses resulting in high confidence of at least daily rounds of showers. The bottom line is a very wet forecast for the week ahead. The persistent nature of the aforementioned set up is also highlighting the potential for flash flooding. The ArkLaTex is included in at least lower-end risk outlooks beginning tomorrow and continuing through Friday, with the greatest risk currently outlooked on Thursday for our southwestern zones. The most recent accumulation forecast totals suggest at least 3 inches of rain across the region, with the highest totals in the 5 to 7 inch rain. Bear in mind, these totals will be accumulated through the course of the next 7 days. Reinforced by southerly flow, warm conditions will continue, but this wet pattern looks to at least put a dent in the well-above average temperatures of the past few days. Highs will settle into the low to middle 80s by late in the week, with lows in the 60s throughout. /26/ &&.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Elevated southerly winds around 10kts expected overnight ahead of a cold front that will move across the region on Tuesday. MVFR ceilings expected ahead of the front from around 19/06Z through 19/18Z. Ceilings to become VFR thereafter with VCTS conditions expected across TXK around 19/20Z with convection moving south across the I-20 terminals and approaching LFK around 19/23Z. /05/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday into Tuesday Night. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 91 71 84 / 10 70 70 80 MLU 75 92 71 86 / 10 40 80 80 DEQ 73 83 65 81 / 10 90 60 80 TXK 75 90 68 83 / 10 80 60 80 ELD 74 90 68 83 / 10 70 70 80 TYR 76 88 70 82 / 20 70 60 80 GGG 75 90 70 82 / 10 70 70 80 LFK 77 91 72 84 / 10 30 50 90 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...05  966 FXUS63 KBIS 182330 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 630 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers continue into this evening south central ND into the James River Valley before departing to the east-northeast tonight. Slight chance of showers elsewhere. - Lows tonight into Tuesday morning dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories have been issued. Cold temperatures again possible Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, mainly east. - Unsettled weather pattern develops mid to end of the week. Greatest and most widespread chances (about 30 to 60 percent) come Thursday into Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Light rain continues across portions of south central North Dakota at the time of this early evening update, with sporadic reports of drizzle also found further to the west. Precpitation is generally expected diminish from west to east through the evening. More isolated showers will be possible across the west and south central overnight, though additional accumulation is would be light. Have tweaked the PoP grids in line with the latest CAM guidance. Will also need to evaluate the potential for additional fog development tonight, especially across the northwest where low stratus is expected to diminish the quickest. Overall, the forecast remains in good shape at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current surface analysis places low over the upper midwest with notable frontal boundary stretching to the southwest through the central plains. High remains over southern Saskatchewan into central Montana. Upper level analysis places trough over Saskatchewan southward towards the central Rockies. Southeast flow over our area with some embedded short waves is resulting in broad shower activity over much of South Dakota into southeast/south central North Dakota. For tonight, ongoing showers will continue into this evening before departing to the east/northeast. In the meantime, surface high settles into the area, mainly western locations, with cool air continuing to slide in. This will result in sub freezing temperatures over parts of western and north central North Dakota, therefore a Freeze Warning has been issued. Further east, confidence is a little lower as to how cold it will get given the persistant cloud cover. With that said, lows look to dip close to or reach freezing, so have decided to go with a Frost Advisory for that area even though technically "frost" will not form, but sensitive plants could be damaged, especially if temperatures are a degree or two lower than forecast. Trough pushes east early Tuesday, with a low amplitude ridge passing over for Tuesday into Wednesday. Expect a gradual warm- up for high temperatures, but Tuesday night may see some freezing lows, mainly over our east given the high passing over and clearing skies. Next trough digs in over the western CONUS on Thursday with our flow shifting southwesterly before the system closes off and ejects to the northeast to close out the week. Greatest chances for precipitation come Thursday into Friday (about 30 to 60 percent chance). Warming trend expected going into the weekend with NBM temperature spreads being quite confident in seeing well above average temperatures by late weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Widespread MVFR and sporadic IFR ceilings are found at all terminals as low stratus persists across the region. Rain showers continues across the south central, occasionally promoting the aforementioned IFR ceilings and some MVFR visibility reductions. Ceilings are expected to generally improve through the evening across the far west, with also generally diminishing through this period. Ceilings are then expected to improve across the east overnight through Tuesday morning. North winds will diminish through the evening, becoming light overnight through Tuesday morning as they turn more northwesterly. Gusty winds are then expected to develop in the south central late Tuesday morning through the afternoon, with sustained speeds around 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots at times. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Tuesday for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-017>020-022-031>033- 040-041-043-044-055>059. Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Tuesday for NDZ013-023-025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051- 060>062. && $$ UPDATE...Adam DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...Adam  014 FXUS65 KGJT 182330 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 530 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow continues through this evening. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the eastern Uinta, Elkhead, and Park Mountains. - Freezing temperatures are expected to impact the lower basins of northwest Colorado and northeast Utah Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Freeze highlights are in effect. - Temperatures will start to warm Tuesday onward, finally reaching near-to-above normal levels Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER: The cold front has finally pushed through most of eastern Utah and western Colorado, with a significantly cooler airmass filling in. Temperatures today will run 15-25 degrees below normal, feeling more like March than May. The widespread rainfall that accompanied the frontal passage is transitioning to a more convective mode this afternoon, although limited instability will keep a lid on thunderstorm development. Look for gusty winds and light to moderate rainfall with showers this afternoon. Snow showers will also be possible at the higher elevations, and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Eastern Uintas and Park and Elkhead ranges through this evening. Activity will taper off this evening as drier air works in under northwesterly flow. This will also lead to skies clearing from west to east, resulting in freeze concerns, discussed below. After a cold start tomorrow, temperatures start to rebound as flow aloft turns southwesterly and warm air advection kicks in. That said, we remain below normal tomorrow and Wednesday, before finally reaching late- May norms on Thursday. Light mountain showers will be possible each afternoon, but otherwise conditions will be quiet and mostly sunny. The next chance for precipitation comes late in the week, as a quick- moving wave clips northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado. FREEZE POTENTIAL: With cold air advection ongoing and skies expected to clear out tonight, freeze potential remains a concern. The coldest conditions will occur on Tuesday morning. The Yampa River Basin and the eastern Uinta Basin are most likely to see sub-freezing temperatures by daybreak tomorrow, though the Yampa Basin is most likely to see a hard freeze. Freeze Warnings are in effect for these zones from midnight tonight through 10AM tomorrow morning. Wednesday morning will also likely see sub-freezing temperatures in the Yampa River Basin, thus a freeze watch has been issued for CO001 and CO002. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 526 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Some showers and midlevel ceilings persist at this hour but precip will continue to drift northeastward this evening and overnight. Ceilings will lift as well though will likely persist for KHDN, KEGE and KASE. Despite that, VFR conditions will remain predominant though some brief MVFR can't be completely ruled out either. A few gusts of 20 to 30 kts will remain possible under and near these showers but should die down after 03Z. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ001-002. Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for COZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ004. UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ024. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ023. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  078 FXUS65 KPSR 182330 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 430 PM MST Mon May 18 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - An overall broad scale troughing pattern will persist over the western U.S., resulting in temperatures remaining right around seasonal norms through the rest of this week. - Dry conditions, with no threat of rain, and seasonal afternoon breezes are expected through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Latest GOES W infrared and visible satellite imagery indicates a broad trough of low pressure encompassing the western half of the U.S. with multiple embedded shortwaves rotating around the trough axis. The robust shortwave which was responsible for gusty winds, blowing dust, and critical fire weather in our region yesterday has since lifted into the S Rockies and is now bringing a round of severe weather to the Central Plains. As the trough axis passes over the Desert Southwest this afternoon, negative 500 mb height anomalies will continue to overspread the area, resulting in a mild afternoon across the lower deserts. Highs this afternoon are forecast to top out in the mid 80s across the lower deserts, with only 10-20% chances of reaching 90F in the main population centers including Phoenix and Yuma. Dry air will continue to filter into the region from the NW and cause sfc dewpoints to crash into the 20s and 30s across AZ and even into the single digits in southeast CA. This intrusion of dry air will result in cool overnight temperatures with lows falling into the mid 50s to low 60s across the lower deserts. On Tuesday, a follow-on shortwave trough will dive through the Great Basin region, but will be much weaker than the one we experienced on Sunday. This shortwave will again result in enhanced breeziness along the Lower Colorado River valley where northerly gusts as high as 20-30 mph will develop early morning through midday. Increasing SW flow aloft over AZ will also result in breezy conditions, mainly over the higher terrain of northern and eastern AZ. Elsewhere across the lower deserts wind speeds will be much lighter, generally below 15 mph. Due to the positioning of the trough centered over the Great Basin, 500 mb hghts will not change much and thus high temperatures Tuesday afternoon will only warm by a few degrees into the mid 80s to lower 90s which is still below normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through the rest of the week, global ensembles depict a lasting weak longwave trough pattern across the Desert South, with neutral height anomalies and no significant shortwaves rolling through the region. This will translate to rather seasonal weather conditions, but with a slow day-to-day warming trend. High temperatures are forecast to be near normal through the end of the work week - highs in the middle to upper 90s. Meanwhile morning lows are expected to be near to slightly below normal, largely due to dry air/low humidity and limited cloud cover. It is not until the weekend when odds of high temperatures reaching the 100 degree mark spikes back up to around 30-60%, as the longwave trough across the Desert Southwest breaks down. Conditions will remain dry through this weekend, with no threat of rain, and seasonal wind patterns are expected, with light winds through the overnight and morning hours and afternoon upslope breezes up to 15-25 mph. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2330Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather concerns expected throughout the TAF period. Westerly winds will prevail through this evening with some occasional gusts into the upper teens through sunset. Winds will resume their more typical diurnal pattern tonight through Tuesday with easterly winds expected during the overnight and early morning hours followed by a westerly shift by the late morning/early afternoon. A FEW-SCT clouds around 8 kft will clear out this evening making way for clear skies during the late evening/overnight. FEW high clouds will move in tomorrow afternoon and evening. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies can be expected throughout the TAF period. At KBLH, wind gusts upwards of 20-25 kts will subside over the next couple of hours. Then, west to northwest winds will prevail this evening, at both terminals, with speeds less than 10 kt. Winds will then go back northerly late tomorrow morning. Speeds will increase slightly at KIPL but remain around 10 kt. At KBLH wind gusts upwards of 20-25 kt are expected again tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Seasonal temperatures with dry conditions will persist through the end of this week. Daily afternoon humidity values will bottom out around 5-15% each day with poor to fair overnight recoveries at 25-50%. After today seasonal wind patterns are expected through the rest of the week, with afternoon upslope breezes up to 15-25 mph and the only exception being another brief enhanced northerly wind down the Colorado River on Tuesday morning. There is no rain in the forecast through this weekend. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Salerno LONG TERM...Benedict AVIATION...Berislavich/Lojero FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Salerno  139 FXUS66 KMFR 182331 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 431 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .Update AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...19/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across the region with gusty north to northwest winds that will ease after sunset. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region through the TAF period. There could be localized areas of LIFR/IFR in fog/low clouds in portions of the Umpqua and Coquille Basins, but impacts to any terminals should be shortlived. /BR-y && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 216 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026/ DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)... Key Points: * Minor impacts continue the next several days - Return of well above normal temperatures tomorrow - These above normal temperatures continue through the weekend * Drying trend continues through the extended forecast - No signal for precipitation in the forecast at this time * Elevated fire weather concerns this week - Combination of dry, breezy, and warm temperatures - Fuels fortunately keeping the overall fire threat low/moderate Further Details: A ridge of high pressure will maintain its position over the Pacific Ocean through the extended forecast. While occasional troughs pass over the northern tier of this high pressure, these will mainly impact Washington and southwest Canada. As a result, a dry and stable airmass is likely to persist this week. The position of the high and an area of low pressure inland will result in a strong pressure gradient over the forecast area (thermal trough) through this stretch, so expecting diurnal breezy afternoons each day. That said, it doesn't appear any hazards will result from these wind speeds. As we maintain the dry airmass and breezy afternoons, there will be at least an elevated threat for fire weather conditions each day. However, fuel conditions per fire agencies reveal the overall fire weather threat will remain low to moderate. Given the low RH values and breezy winds each afternoon, people should exercise caution with any outdoor activities that could cause sparks or flames. Bottom line is that fire season was declared early this year, so these precautionary actions should already be in place, but its especially important when we have these elevated fire weather days. Looking ahead, there is a chance for a change in the airmass around Memorial Day that could bring precipitation chances across the forecast area. This is technically outside of this forecast package, but something we will keep an eye on given the lack of precipitation lately. However, models are split on these chances so this is nothing of a "slam dunk" scenario. MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, May 18, 2026...A thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas over the coastal waters much of this week. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest during the afternoons/evenings. Through this stretch, very steep seas of 10-12 ft are most likely south of Cape Blanco with steep seas (6-9 ft) north of Cape Blanco. Ensembles indicate winds will strengthen Wednesday through Friday with a potential (35-55% chance) for gales (gusts) across portions of the southern waters, especially from around Gold Beach south. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370. && $$  167 FXUS62 KMHX 182331 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 731 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation forecast has been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal to near-record high temperatures and rain-free conditions to continue through mid-week. 2) A frontal system approaches the area late week, bringing the next appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Notably warm low-level thicknesses beneath an anomalous mid-upper level ridging will continue to support above to well above normal temperatures across the Carolinas through Wednesday. Guidance shows similar low-level thicknesses each afternoon yielding highs generally in the lower 90s across the coastal plain but some warmer spots may reach mid 90s, remaining just shy of records. It will be closest across the coastal plain, however. Additionally, despite increasing low-level moisture, ridging aloft should provide sufficient subsidence to suppress convective activity outside of perhaps a rogue shower or thunderstorm where convergence is maximized along the seabreeze. Still, probs of this occuring are low enough to keep out of the forecast with this update. KEY MESSAGE 2...The mid-upper level ridge is forecast to break down some late-week and into the weekend. This should allow a front to drop south into the Thursday into Friday. There continues to be some uncertainty regarding whether or not the front fully makes it through ENC, whether it stalls, or whether it lifts quickly back north as a warm front. Given the strength of the ridge, it stands to reason that the front will struggle to get fully through ENC, and the forecast continues to reflect this scenario. Then, ridging may try to build back late in the weekend, which would favor the front lifting back north as a warm front by early next week. Based on the above, increasing moisture and instability along the frontal zone should support an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms. Probabilistic guidance shows a solid chance of 0.25"- 0.75" each day from Thursday into the weekend. However, it should be noted that those amounts will be highly dependent on the evolution of the frontal zone. Initially when the front drops into the area, there may be just enough flow aloft to support some thunderstorm organization and perhaps a marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Machine learning and analog guidance support this potential as well. However, no one day stands out as having a higher risk of severe thunderstorms. Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts are not expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Pred VFR conditions remain in place across all of ENC this evening as the area remains under the influence of a ridge of high pressure centered in the Atlantic. However, our attention once again turns to later tonight as we are forecast to have a rinse and repeat of last night, with patchy fog/low stratus likely developing after midnight. S-SW winds at 5-10 kts with gusts up around 15-20 kts early this evening are forecast to ease and become light late tonight. With clear skies also in place, a good radiational cooling setup brings a fog and low stratus threat. Greatest chance at seeing fog and low stratus looks to be across SW'rn zones and along the Crystal Coast where highest HREF probs for low vis are (around 40-60%). With this in mind, have MVFR vis developing across the OAJ/EWN terminal and adjacent areas around 07-08Z and then going to IFR vis between 08-09Z. Further north have limited vis to just MVFR starting between 08-10Z. ASCT deck of low stratus at 0.3 kft is also noted in all TAFs given potential threat for low stratus. Vis and ceilings quickly lift with VFR conditions then forecast after about 12-13Z. Another rinse and repeat day on tap for Tue with mostly clear skies outside of diurnal Cu field and breezy S'rly winds with gusts up to 15-20 kts in the afternoon behind the incoming seabreeze. Outlook: A dry seabreeze pattern looks to continue through Wednesday. Beyond then, a frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... A summer-like pattern continues through the middle of the week, with a daily building of winds to 10-20kt each afternoon and evening as the thermal gradient tightens. This will especially be the case for the inland rivers and sounds and the nearby coastal waters within 20nm of the coast. Seas will continue around 2-3ft, potentially up to 4 ft during the afternoon and evening. Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the area late-week, then meander around the area through the upcoming weekend. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds and seas, but especially wind direction. In general, the risk of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front, with slightly higher chances of seeing 25+kt gusts behind the front. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms along the front as well. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SK/RJ AVIATION...RCF MARINE...SK/RJ  256 FXUS63 KABR 182333 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 633 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers (embedded thundershowers) into the evening hours. Most areas less than a half inch. No severe storms expected. - Frost possible (33 to 36 degrees) across portions of central SD early Tuesday morning. Much better potential for widespread frost/freeze conditions Wednesday morning. Temperatures forecast around 29-33 degrees. && .UPDATE... Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Due to the cloud cover, temperatures should remain fairly steady overnight. Increased lows a few degrees across the board, leaning toward the HRRR and ConsShort. That leaves lows on the cusp of frost advisory under the current headlines. Will leave headlines as-is for now, but confidence is low in temperatures below 37 degrees except in valleys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Starting to see an uptick in areal coverage of showers (embedded thundershowers) as activity continues moving north-northeast across the region. Instability is lacking today, so don't expect anything in the way of severe storms. Did some massaging of PoPs through late afternoon into early evening to account for radar trends and expectations. Total rainfall amounts forecast to remain less than a half inch for most areas. Later tonight into early Tuesday morning, surface high pressure settles in across the western Dakotas. Chilly temperatures in the 30s are forecast across the CWA tonight, and there are some concerns about frost potential with temps dropping to between 33 and 36 degrees. Clouds are expected much of the night, along with a northwest breeze, so certainly not ideal radiational cooling conditions. In fact, inherited NBM lows seemed a tad too cool, so blended in some warmer (ConsMOS) readings to bring readings up a couple degrees in spots. All said and done, forecast lows across central SD are generally between 33 and 36 degrees, so have therefore issued a Frost Advisory for the western CWA. Much better potential for more widespread frost/freeze conditions late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the surface high is more overhead. Winds are expected to be lighter, with mostly clear skies (especially for eastern areas) leading to better radiational cooling conditions. Current forecast lows are closer to 30-32 degrees for many areas. Highly likely more headlines are in store. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG A mix of MVFR/IFR conditions will persist into Tuesday morning with the continuing rain and cloud cover. As high pressure moves in Tuesday, cigs should improve. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Tuesday for SDZ003>005-009-010-015-016-033>035-045. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...20 DISCUSSION...TMT AVIATION...20  187 FXUS63 KFGF 182332 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 632 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers is expected this afternoon through tonight, bringing an additional few hundredths to two tenths of an inch across mainly southeastern North Dakota into western Minnesota. - Overnight temperatures could drop into the low to mid 30s west of the Red River Valley tonight, and a frost advisory is in effect. Temperatures drop again to near freezing across all of eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...Synopsis... Large upper trough continues over the Rockies, with a lead shortwave starting to move through the southwest flow into SD. This shortwave is already bringing some light rain showers starting to move in around the Valley City area. The northern portion of the main upper trough will move into the Plains tonight and then off into Ontario tomorrow, with southern vorticity lobe still down near UT and NV. The northern shortwave moving through should help push high pressure down into the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds return quickly back to the south on Wednesday under southwesterly flow aloft. The split trough remains over the western CONUS Thursday, but starts to move out into the Plains Friday into Saturday. A lot of variation in the ensemble members into how exactly the trough comes out and if there is another shortwave Sunday. Blended solution of some precipitation chances and temperatures rising above seasonal averages by Sunday and Monday continues to seem reasonable. ...Rain chances tonight... CAMs and global models in pretty good agreement on showers currently over the James River Valley spreading northeastward through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. The bulk of the rain will be exiting out of our eastern counties between midnight and 6 AM, although there will be some lingering light showers/drizzle for a while after. All but portions of the Devils Lake Basin have high probability of seeing at least 0.01 of rain, and there is a 50 to 80 percent probability of at least 0.10 inches mainly in southeastern ND into western MN. ...Temperatures into the 30s tonight... Continued cold air advection pushes 850mb and even 925mb temps in some areas down below 0 C tonight. While skies will remain cloudy and there will be at least a little bit of mixing from northwesterly winds, temperatures look quite cold by tomorrow morning. NBM has probabilities 80 percent and higher for temperatures to get below 36 degrees, and even the less bullish HREF has 40 to 50 percent. With the clouds and wind do not think we will get down as low as the base NBM had us, so tweaked lows up a bit. We should stay above 32, but even with not much actual frost occurring the 33 to 36 degree range west of the Red River Valley could cause some issues to sensitive plants. Went ahead and matched neighbors for a frost advisory tonight. It does look to clear out and go light for winds tomorrow night, so better chances for freeze and frost look likely Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Light to moderate rain is moving across eastern ND and northwest MN and will transition east of the region through the late evening/overnight. Vis within areas of rain is generally 3-6sm, however brief drops under 3sm within some moderate showers may occur (better chances KFAR to BJI). MVFR ceilings are prevailing, and eventually IFR will overspread the region tonight, with gradual improvement west to east through the daytime period Tuesday. Better chances for VFR (3500-6000ft agl) ceilings will be late afternoon Tuesday. North to northwest winds 12-20kt are expected across much of the region, with periodic gusts around 25kt. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006-007- 014-015-024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...DJR  306 FXUS61 KAKQ 182334 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 734 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. SPC continues to outlook northern portions of the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area. 2) An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 PM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area. Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture should lock in a summer-like heat and continued dry conditions for the first half of the week. Temperatures are currently in the lower 90s across the area with some upper 80s along the coast. Widespread lower to mid 90s are expected through Wednesday. Temperatures will be similar each day, perhaps increasing a degree or so each day, culminating with the warmest day of the week on Wednesday. The strong mixing and dry antecedent conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, and fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temps, as well as dry conditions into Wednesday afternoon. Then Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will approach the area and showers and storms could develop from the pre-frontal trough. The latest models continue to show any convection only reaching north and west portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro. SPC has included northern portions of the area, including RIC metro, in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) with the potential of damaging winds and large hail. The risk of severe storms looks to be marginal with the concern of storms dissipating before reaching the area, but nonetheless, still possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen to SE ridge, while also allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. The cold front will push south of the area Thursday and Friday, leaving a CAD wedge setup with highs in the 60s to 70s with cloudy, drizzly conditions. Then on Saturday, the wedge airmass will erode, pushing a warm front back through the area with temperatures return back to near normal. Some additional isolated to scattered showers and a few storms are possible Sat/Sun, but by no means does the holiday weekend look to be a washout. Rainfall totals for the week do not look like the drought buster we need, with ensemble guidance showing a mean of only 0.50-1.00" for the week. Will note that with recent systems, the ensembles were quite bullish with precip totals and widely over-estimated multiple days out. Gradual warming is expected as we head into early next week, as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions prevailed as of 00z with high pressure centered off the Southeast coast. The wind was S to SSW 10-15kt with occasional gusts to ~20kt. VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight through Tuesday under a mostly clear/sunny sky. The wind will generally be SSW 8-12kt tonight through Tuesday morning, and then nudge up to 10-15kt late morning into the aftn, with occasional gusts to near 20kt during the aftn, and potentially a directional shift to SSE closer to the coast later in the aftn. Outlook: VFR conditions expected to continue Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure remains in control. S/SW winds likely gust to 15-20 kt Wednesday aftn. The next chance of rain and possible degraded flight conditions arrive with a cold front later Wednesday into Thursday. Unsettled conditions continue Friday into Saturday as the front lingers across the Mid- Atlantic region. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds. - A front moves through late week, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions. This afternoon, expansive high pressure remains centered near Bermuda and extends across the Southeast. Winds are generally out of the S to SW, averaging 10 to 15 knots. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet. Through mid- week, high pressure will remain parked across the western Atlantic in a typical summertime Bermuda High configuration. Winds remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt outside of the daily mid to late- afternoon nearshore seabreeze. The afternoon breeze will likely bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each afternoon before winds veer back offshore and diminish through the overnight. These surges will be relatively brief and likely will not require any SCAs. Expect generally benign marine conditions to prevail through at least midweek. The next cold front looks to cross the waters Wednesday night into Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs still suggest that even behind the front, only brief SCA conditions are possible and conditions may stay under SCA criteria into the weekend. Whether or not the aforementioned front actually moves through or stalls across the area will play an important role in the wind regime late week into the weekend. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) on Tuesday, with a low risk elsewhere. The moderate rip current risk likely continues for the northern beaches into Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... As of 730 PM Monday... Richmond set a new record high today of 96 degrees. This broke the previous record of 95 degrees set in 1911. Record High Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High/Year High/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 72 (2018) 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJB/NB CLIMATE...MAM/AJZ  348 FXUS61 KBUF 182335 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 735 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms expanded across the entire forecast area Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summer-like heat today through Tuesday. 2) Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms this evening, supporting a threat for damaging winds. 3) Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive Tuesday evening and last into Wednesday morning, where a few thunderstorms may become severe (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Tuesday/Tuesday Night). 4) Drier and cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Summer-like heat today through Tuesday. Mid and upper level ridging will continue to amplify across the eastern United States today while gradually shifting its ridge axis eastward tonight and Tuesday. As such, deep southwesterly flow will advect warm Gulf air into the region helping to surge temperatures well into the 80s and a few climatologically warmer locations toward 90. Today will be the warmer of the two days, as the ridge axis lies overhead. However, for locations closer to the lakeshores, expect temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s due to the air coming off of the cold lake waters. NBM high temperatures continue to trend too warm, but it is not as overdone as it has been in previous runs. This being said, continued to lower high temperatures a couple to a few degrees for locations. While temperatures are warm, dewpoint temperatures will range in the 60s supporting lower humidity values, which will keep the potential for heat headline criteria low. KEY MESSAGE 2...Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms this evening supporting a threat for damaging winds. A weak shortwave trough will ride along the western edge of the ridge this afternoon and evening, introducing a forcing mechanism along with a 40-50 knot low-level jet to graze the western edges of the the forecast area, which will help support a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. Due to the warm, moist, unstable air mass already overhead, and the introduction of the low-level jet later this evening, any storm that does develop could become severe. This being said, a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms (Threat Level 1 of 5) is in place across the region, with the main hazard being damaging wind gusts. KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive Tuesday evening and last into Wednesday morning, where a few thunderstorms may become severe (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Tuesday/Tuesday Night). As the mid-level ridge axis departs east Tuesday, the next mid-level trough will jut northwestward out of the longwave trough overhead of the western half of the CONUS. Its associated surface low will continue to track northeastward across Ontario and Quebec, Canada dragging an attendant cold front across the region Tuesday night. Despite the unfavorable timing of the front's arrival being past peak diurnal heating hours, there continue to be high confidence in a few strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening and Tuesday night ahead of the strong cold front's arrival. CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg along with 30 to 40 knots of 0-6km shear will nurture the potential for damaging wind gusts, which will be the primary hazard threat. However, large hail can't be ruled out as forecast soundings continue to highlight "fat" CAPE profiles. Additionally, an isolated tornado can't be ruled out either with Storm Relative Helicity values of 200 to 300 m^2/s^2. This all being said, the Storm Prediction Center continuesto place the entire region under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms. With a 2% risk for tornadoes, 15% risk for damaging winds, and 5% risk for large hail. KEY MESSAGE 4...Drier and cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the potential for unsettle weather returns for the holiday weekend. In the wake of the passing cold front Wednesday morning, cold air and surface high pressure will side across the region for the later half of the week, supporting mainly cool and dry weather. The coolest day will be Thursday with many locations remaining in the 50s for highs. There will then be a slow rebound in temperatures heading into the holiday weekend, with highs ranging in the 60s and a few locations reaching the low 70s. An area of low pressure will then approach the region from the southwest, supporting the return of unsettled weather for the holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For the 00Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions are found, and these conditions will be predominate through the TAF cycle. There will be a few exceptions. A few showers or even a thunderstorm may blossom this evening over the Finger Lakes, lifting northward. While activity is expected to remain scattered at best, it may impact the KART airfield this evening. Upstream, a weakening QLCS is over the western waters of Lake Erie, with this activity sliding eastward. It will weaken with the loss of daytime instability...but still cannot rule out a few showers making our region later this evening. Otherwise we'll have a consistent flow of 35 to 45 knots between 2K and 5K feet. This may bring limited LLWS concerns...as well as gusty winds tomorrow afternoon, especially northeast of the Lakes where gusts may reach 30 to 35 knots. With a wealth of instability, there may be an inland lake breeze shower or thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon, with the main line of convection ahead of a cold front not expected to reach the western TAF sites until around or just after 00Z. Outlook... Tuesday night through Wednesday...Areas of MVFR/local IFR with showers and thunderstorms of which a few storms may contain gusty winds, with this activity ending from west to east and improving to VFR Wednesday morning. Thursday through Friday...VFR. Saturday...Potential for sub-VFR with as a low pressure system brings rain to the region. && .MARINE... Pressure gradient between exiting high pressure and an approaching cold front will continue to gradually tighten through Tuesday, which is currently supporting the moderate southwesterlies and very choppy conditions on the western end of Lake Ontario this afternoon. Winds will increase further Tuesday ahead of the aforementioned cold front, supporting winds and waves worthy of Small Craft Advisory criteria on the western end of Lake Ontario by Tuesday afternoon, before spreading toward the eastern end of Lake Ontario late Tuesday night through Wednesday with the passage of the cold front. Winds on Lake Erie will be somewhat lighter, but still strong enough to produce a moderate chop Tuesday through Wednesday. Additionally, just ahead of the cold frontal passage Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to pass across the lakes producing damaging winds with a possibility of large hail. Winds will then relax as high pressure returns Wednesday night and Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAJ AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...EAJ  317 FXUS62 KJAX 182334 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 734 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Risk Of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today & Tuesday - Areas of Locally Dense Fog Across Southeast GA Early on Tues Morning - Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms at Inland Locations - Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Area-Wide - Historic Drought Conditions Continue Across Much of Our Region && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Main Highlights This Period: - High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Tuesday night. - Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible inland Tonight Surface high pressure will be centered to the northeast through Tonight, with the ridge extending across the area. Low level moisture left over from recent rains is expected to result in fog potential inland overnight. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... - Daily thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor. - Rip currents at area beaches will be a concern; High risk likely into midweek. Onshore flow persists through midweek as High pressure remains over the Bermuda region. Chances of precipitation return on Tuesday and Wednesday as moist air moves in from the Atlantic, bringing PWATs upwards to 1.5" each afternoon. With the inland push of the Atlantic sea breeze, activity will be focused over inland locations towards the I-75 corridor and north central FL each afternoon. The onshore flow will continue to bring breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts up from 15mph to 20mph possible each afternoon. Daytime highs each afternoon will be in the lower 90s over inland locations prior to the onset of any showers or storms, while coastal locations will have highs in the mid to upper 80s. During the overnight hours Lows will be in the 70s at the coast, while inland areas gradually fall to the mid/upper 60s. Patchy fog is possible inland both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily afternoon thunderstorms; best coverage and strongest storms expected along the sea breeze mergers Rain chances Thursday are pretty isolated, near 20% inland, as onshore winds continue. Precipitation chances increase area-wide Friday through the weekend as a front stalls near northern Georgia then lifts northward, and steering flow becomes more southerly, allowing sea breeze mergers in a more central location. Highest storm chances overall will be Saturday and Sunday afternoons and evenings, between I-95 and I-75 where the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes interact. With PWATs near 1.5-1.75" there is potential for locally heavy downpours within storms. Each day, high temperatures will generally be in the low 90s inland, and a little cooler near the Atlantic coast with mild low temps in the 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Onshore flow will create the potential for restrictions in stratus near the coast Tonight. Further inland, fog formation will lead to potential restrictions at VQQ and GNV Tonight. For Tuesday, conditions will trend to VFR during the morning, and continue through the afternoon. There is a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms inland Tuesday, which could affect GNV. At this point it is too early to place restrictions in GNV TAF for what is expected to be isolated to scattered convection. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure centered to Bermuda will continue to extend its axis across the southeastern states through midweek. An easterly wind surge late this afternoon through this evening will result in Caution level wind speeds for the northeast Florida waters. Prevailing east to southeasterly winds will continue across our local waters during the next several days, with isolated to widely scattered showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. A frontal boundary will briefly stall over the southeastern states late this week before lifting northward as a warm front during the Holiday weekend. Caution conditions will again be possible for the near shore waters from Friday through early next week as Atlantic high pressure becomes reinforced near Bermuda. Rip Currents: An easterly wind surge will combine with the outgoing tide and breakers of 2 to 4 feet to create a high rip current risk at all area beaches this afternoon, with similiar conditions on Tuesday likely keeping this high risk in place. Persistent east to southeast winds will keep at least a moderate risk in place at area beaches on Wednesday and Thursday, with high risks again possible from Friday through the upcoming Holiday weekend, as late afternoon and evening easterly wind surges potentially return. && .FIRE WEATHER... `...PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS WEEK... The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon through the week. Patchy high dispersions will be present over inland locations Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. Moisture will continue to filter into the area, leading to MinRH not being of particular concern this week. Moisture will steadily increase each day, with thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening, mainly for inland northeast FL through Thursday, then area- wide Friday through next weekend. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms each day Tuesday onward. Patchy fog possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for inland locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 90 64 90 / 0 10 0 10 SSI 71 83 73 84 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 68 86 69 89 / 10 10 0 20 SGJ 73 86 73 87 / 10 10 0 10 GNV 69 91 69 92 / 0 20 0 30 OCF 70 90 70 91 / 10 40 0 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for GAZ154- 166. MARINE...None. && $$  367 FXUS63 KDVN 182335 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 635 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are expected to hold off until mid to late evening tonight as the main severe weather threat remains tied to the cold front position well to our west this afternoon. - A mature to dissipating squall line of storms is expected to move towards our western counties later this evening, and begin to dissipate/break up as it moves eastward. - Cooler weather is expected for the mid to late week, with increasing rain chances Thursday night through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Two areas of scattered storms and rain moved through the area early this morning, resulting in some beneficial rainfall, and extensive cloud cover over the area through this morning. The cloud cover has resulted in far less instability available for any storms over eastern Iowa this afternoon, while Illinois and Missouri continues to see over-running rains just south of our counties from the expansion of the early morning storm cluster that impacted our CWA today. This vast area of stable air should keep any prefrontal storms from forming in our CWA this afternoon and early evening. Farther west, a different story exists. Strong heat and convergence is over eastern KS, feeding into a triple point just north of Salina KS. This rather obvious spot with strongly backed winds, ample CAPE, and focusing mechanism supports supercell growth in eastern KS, southeast NE, northwest MO, and far southwest Iowa this afternoon through mid evening, as is outlined by SPC for a Moderate and Enhanced Risk. That Enh risk previously included eastern Iowa, but has been shifted west due to the late arrival time, and expectation of instability waning overnight. Various CAMs agree nearly all agree on supercells spreading east and northeast into southwest Iowa this evening, merging into a line, with bowing segments and damaging winds as is moves towards south southwest Iowa and MO. From this point going forward, convection appears to show the highest potential to split north and south, with the northern side moving towards Wisconsin and MN following the best shear and forcing, while the most significant severe weather will drop southeast from its initiation point in eastern KS to central and possibly northern MO with a significant wind threat, as well as heavy rain in MO. For our CWA, that could leave us out of the threat for severe weather, however given some threat for an organized line of storms on the northern flank of the Missouri activity, we could see a gusty squall line move from west to east over the area, as shear values will be sufficient for this to happen. In fact, if it does happen, 0-1km shear vectors could allow for some QLCS tornado potential as damaging meso vorts along the line. (if we get a coherent line overnight). Activity will be decaying regarding QPF overnight, with most rainfall expected in our southern counties once again. By early Tuesday morning, any rain will be quickly exiting our southeast CWA with a cloudy cool morning in place. Northwest winds will bring in plenty CAA Tuesday and Tuesday evening, as temperatures fall from highs in the low 60s west to mid 70s east to the 40s by mid evening Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Cool high pressure looks to move in for Tuesday night through Wednesday night, resulting in lows in the 40s, but highs in the mid to upper 60s. This rather nice weather will give way to potential rain and clouds for Thursday afternoon through Friday as there is a growing signal for an upper low/deep trof passing through the Midwest in that time frame. Pops are now increased to likely (55- 70%) for Thursday night and Friday, with some thunder possible. The clouds and showers will hold temperatures down into the 60s both days, before a warm up into the 70s and 80s spreads in for the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Another busy aviation forecast is ahead of us tonight, as a line of strong-severe storms work through the area from west to east. Timing for this line will generally be between 03-10z, with highest confidence on impacts at CID and BRL. There remains uncertainty on the longevity of the line as it tracks through the area, but opted to hold onto PROB30 groups throughout due to the uncertainties. Main hazards will be strong winds, with frequent lightning and heavy rain. Heavy rainfall will result in reduced vis of 2-4 SM as the line passes through, improving within 1-2 hours after the leading edge passes through. Reduced cigs will also be seen as these storms pass through, generally dropping to between 2000-3000 ft. Otherwise, we will be monitoring the surface winds ahead of and behind the passing cold front that is bringing the storms through. Ahead of the front, southerly winds between 10-15 KTs will gust upwards to 25 KTs at times. Winds will shift west to northwesterly behind the cold front, with gusts upwards to 25 KTs remaining. Behind the front, generally around 10-14z and beyond, we will also see an MVFR stratus deck move in and remain over the area until the afternoon hours on Tuesday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Gunkel  411 FXUS61 KBOX 182336 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 736 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Heat Advisories issued for most of Southern New England Tuesday and Wednesday with the first multi-day stretch of hot temperatures and a moderate degree of humidity. Record high temperatures remain possible. && .KEY MESSAGES... - First multi-day stretch of hot temperatures (in the mid to upper 90s away from the South Coast) with a moderate degree of humidity Tuesday and Wednesday. Near record heat possible. - Isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday north and west of Interstate 95. Better chances for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday with strong straight line winds the main risk. - Seasonable and dry Thursday and Friday. - Cooler and unsettled weather is possible Memorial Day Weekend, but confidence remains low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...First multi-day stretch of hot temperatures (in the mid to upper 90s away from the South Coast) with a moderate degree of humidity Tuesday and Wednesday. Near record heat possible. A spell of anomalous heat (e.g. 850 mb temps running in the upper teens Celsius, which are 2-3 standard deviations above climatological normals for late May) will build into Southern New England on Tue, only slightly cooler on Wed. SW breezes should also mitigate the risk for cooling seabreezes but will keep the immediate South Coast, Cape and Islands considerably cooler than further inland (highs mid 70s/low 80s). Away from the South Coast, highs on Tuesday should reach the mid 90s in most areas with upper 90s possible due to westerly downsloping in the CT and Merrimack Valleys. With a southward-sagging frontal boundary nearby on Wed, highs project to be a few degrees cooler in the upper 80s/low 90s north of the Mass Pike and low-mid 90s in the CT-RI-SE MA corridor, with still cooler temps 70s/near 80 South Coast/Cape and Islands. Even though the NAM-based guidance shows dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, it usually demonstrates a moist-bias in these strong-mixing days and values should be closer to the mid 50s to mid 60s Tue and Wed. That's also a factor which will be alluded to in the next Key Message to follow. We're looking at a spell of hot temperatures but a generally drier heat, not necessarily oppressively humid like we typically see with forecasted temperatures this hot. With dewpoints mid 50s to lower 60s, it's more of "drier" heat and the difference between the air temperature and the apparent temperature (heat index) may not be that much different. Framing this setup a little more, if this type of setting were deeper in the summer months, it might not rise to the level of heat headlines. However NWS HeatRisk graphics outline portions of the CT and Merrimack Valleys in the Major HeatRisk classification. Given this datapoint, forecasted heat indices which are borderline (mid to upper 90s), and that there may be individuals who are not yet accustomed to this degree of heat as of yet, we opted to issue a Heat Advisory for Tuesday and Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday north and west of Interstate 95. Better chances for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday with strong straight line winds the main risk. The warm airmass Tuesday and Wednesday will create a marginally to moderately-unstable convective setting, with some risk for thunderstorms both days. I'm skeptical of the NAM's inflated instability parameters given the above moist-bias (upper 60s to low 70s) and the highest CAPE values stem from the NAM and its downscaled 3-km version, but even the drier GFS shows about 1000 J/kg on Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Soundings show a well- mixed PBL favorable for downdraft and gust-front production if any showers or storms can pop up. What may trigger storms on Tuesday is debatable, as the best mid- level winds/stronger wind shear and strong cold front is to our north and west. A passing sfc trough could be enough to generate isolated storms north and west of I-95; one or two could become strong if storms develop with strong winds the main risk; the lack of sufficiently strong wind shear would lead to more pulse- type storms. Wednesday may offer a better chance at strong to severe storms with the approaching cold front interacting with moderate instability. The front's timing is in some question but somewhat better chances for thunderstorms near to south of the Mass Pike. Both days feature a Level 1 of 5 (Marginal Risk) for severe weather. KEY MESSAGE 3...Seasonable and dry Thursday and Friday. Thursday and Friday are fairly straightforward, with a 1030mb high pressure system across the Great Lakes on Thursday before shifting east on Friday, leading to dry weather. What is most noticeable is the cooler air mass. 850mb temperatures lower to +2C to +5C on Thursday, a far cry from the +18C to +20C observed just a few days prior. With a dry and well-mixed boundary layer, mixing up to 850mb seems likely, tapping into those cooler temperatures aloft and yielding highs in the middle 60s to around 70F both days. Considering climatological normal maximum temperatures for mid-May are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s, this is more typical for the time of year versus the early taste of summer that challenged daily record highs. With clear skies Thursday night and nearly calm winds as surface high pressure moves overhead, good radiational cooling is expected, allowing temperatures to lower into the 40s, with perhaps some upper 30s across the higher elevations of northern and western Massachusetts. While slightly cooler than normal, temperatures will be nowhere near record-setting. KEY MESSAGE 4...Cooler and unsettled weather is possible Memorial Day Weekend, but confidence remains low. The unofficial start to summer this weekend brings the potential for unsettled weather, though there remains a good deal of uncertainty due to model variability at this range. However, it bears watching given the numerous outdoor activities planned for Memorial Day Weekend. Global deterministic and ensemble guidance show the potential for rainfall, particularly Saturday night into Sunday, though there remain large differences in timing among models and runs. That said, it is worth noting both the AIGFS and ECMWF AIFS depict a 1035mb surface high pressure system situated east of New England, suppressing precipitation to the west. This solution would favor a drier, albeit cooler, weekend with easterly flow and highs generally in the lower 60s. For now, the NBM PoPs remain the best first estimate for the upcoming weekend, but do not write it off just yet, there is still pounds of time for forecast adjustments. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00Z TAF Update: Tonight...High confidence. VFR. However, IFR to LIFR stratus and fog will likely develop over the ocean as SW flow brings higher dewpoints over cooler ocean and this may impact portions of the south coast and Cape and Islands tonight. LLWS risk for all terminals tonight heading into early tomorrow morning. S-SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Tuesday and Tuesday Night...High confidence. VFR. Iso'd TSRA possible by the afternoon, but uncertain on if they will impact any terminals. S-SW wind 8 to 12 kt, gusts to 25 kt developing. VFR overnight, with MVFR ceilings across the Cape and Islands. KBOS...High confidence in TAF. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday through Friday: VFR. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday Night: High confidence. Issued small craft advisories valid from 12z Tuesday through Wednesday evening. SW winds will be increasing to around 15-25 kt Tuesday and remain so through Wednesday, higher over the southern waters. Seas will also be building to around 4-6 ft, with some 7 footers possible Tuesday night over the southern waters. Mainly dry weather prevails through Tuesday night, although fog may develop both tonight and Tuesday night. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain showers likely. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Tue May 19... BOS 90/1949 BDL 94/1962 PVD 91/2017 ORH 92/1962 Record Highs for Wed May 20... BOS 91/1996 BDL 99/1996 PVD 95/1996 ORH 91/1903 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ002>004. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ003- 004. MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ008>011. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MAZ003>007-010>019-026. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for MAZ006- 007-013>019. RI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001>004. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...Loconto/Dooley AVIATION...Dooley/McMinn MARINE...Loconto/Dooley CLIMATE...KJC  470 FXUS61 KCLE 182337 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 737 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Slight Risk for Tuesday has been expanded to include nearly the entire forecast area. Otherwise, no significant changes were made with this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The hottest temperatures of the year thus far will continue through Tuesday. The heat will break behind a cold front on Wednesday with below normal temperatures continuing into Thursday. 2) A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Northwest Ohio and possibly close to the lakeshore this afternoon into early this evening. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening. 3) Unsettled weather with periods of rain expected and thunderstorms possible over the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Deep warm air advection will remain in place across the area over the next couple of days, resulting in above normal to near record temperatures across the area through Tuesday. Temperatures will remain in the 80s to around 90 degrees through the remainder of this afternoon with temps into the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight. Temperatures will decrease a bit faster in locations that receive rain (most likely NW OH) this afternoon. Temperatures will once again rise into the 80s and possibly touch 90 degrees Tuesday afternoon, although confidence in temps reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s (and possibly touching record values) is slightly lower than today due to low- end chances of morning showers, afternoon convection, and increased cloud cover. Dew points will likely be a bit higher on Tuesday afternoon so it will definitely feel muggy. Those spending time outside this afternoon and during the day Tuesday should wear light/loose-fitting clothing and hydrate and sensitive groups should consider limiting time outdoors during peak heating. Temperatures will cool down for mid to late week with highs in the 60s expected Wednesday and Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 2... As of 230 PM EDT, a line of severe thunderstorms was moving east across Indiana. There is a very tight instability gradient that ends just within the western fringe of the local area so anticipate storms to quickly weaken as they encounter less instability later this afternoon and early this evening. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible, especially in the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) area that's in place across the Toledo area as the storms move in over the next couple of hours. Isolated stronger storms are possible in the northern portion of the area where there is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, however large hail is possible and a quick spin-up can't be ruled out in the Slight Risk area. Once convection weakens this evening, scattered showers may persist across NW OH through the overnight hours with low-end PoPs expanding east across the local area Tuesday morning. The moist, unstable air mass will remain in place over the area on Tuesday, especially if the forecast trends drier and sunnier than currently forecast. MLCAPE values will likely exceed 2000 J/kg by peak heating Tuesday with effective bulk shear values likely increasing to 30+ knots as a cold front advances east towards the area Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, although there's some uncertainty in the placement of convective initiation and exact timing of thunderstorms. Thunderstorm development will likely rely on early day cloud cover and any showers that develop Tuesday morning. Given the instability and shear profile, storms may be strong to severe and there is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across nearly the entire area. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern, but some storms may produce large hail. A few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. KEY MESSAGE 3... A period of dry weather is expected Wednesday through Thursday before precipitation chances increase Friday through the holiday weekend as weak low pressure and a frontal boundary slowly drift north across the Ohio Valley. There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in the timing and coverage of showers (and possibly a few thunderstorms) over Memorial Day Weekend, but at the moment it looks like the best chances of precipitation will occur Friday night and Sunday into Monday. Confidence in the likelihood of hazardous weather is low this far out, but will continue to monitor trends in guidance and adjust the forecast/key messages as necessary. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Thunderstorms have began to diminish across NW OH over the past couple of hours. A weakening line of showers are pushing eastward now and has occasionally brought visibility down to MVFR conditions, though expect conditions to be primarily VFR even in rain showers. Showers will taper off over the next couple of hours with no impacts expected east of KCLE. Overnight, a LLJ will set up over western OH creating LLWS conditions for a few hours as surface winds become around 10 knots. Winds will begin gusting to 25-30 knots out of the southwest starting around 12-13Z tomorrow morning and persist through much of the day. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected at the end of the TAF period, after 22Z, with only KTOL, KFDY, and KCLE included with this issuance. Outlook...Non-VFR likely at times in showers/thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Non-VFR possible in showers on Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... Southwest/offshore winds 15-25kts through Tuesday and wave heights increasing rapidly away from shore with 1-3ft in the nearshore zones and 2-4ft in the open water zones. A cold front comes through Tuesday night with northerly winds 10-15kts through Wednesday, increasing to 15-20kts out of the northeast Thursday and 2-4ft waves for the central and western basins. Winds become light and variable into the weekend. && .CLIMATE... High temperatures today and Tuesday will approach record values. The following are the records for May 18 and 19 at local climate sites. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-18 95(1962) 92(1962) 91(1962) 92(1962) 92(1962) 89(1889) 05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...23 MARINE...Sullivan  429 FXUS63 KDDC 182336 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorm chances (50-70%) pick up across south central Kansas late afternoon through early evening. - Unseasonably cool temperatures arrive tonight and stick around through at least Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ***MESOSCALE DISCUSSION*** Current satellite depicts cumulus development ahead of a boundary stretching from Meade northeastward into Pawnee and Stafford Counties. A few convective attempts have already started, with the primary deep convection more northeast of the area in central Kansas. A brief landspout could occur on any initial development given the strong surface vorticity, steep low-level lapse rates, and stationary nature of the boundary. After around 3-4 PM, convective evolution should transition to more robust storms down and along this boundary. Per mesoanalysis, effective bulk shear of 45-55 knots and MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg suggests supercells. Damaging winds, very large hail, and a tornado risk is expected to materialize, especially as low-level shear increasing into the evening. The ultimate extent of significant severe weather will be contingent on if activity can stay more discrete. The ceiling is high for significant impacts, but trends will be monitored in the coming hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 WV imagery indicates a closed upper low pushing east through eastern Utah into western Colorado. Near the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extends from the eastern Texas Panhandle northeastward through northwest Oklahoma into south central Kansas. Another round of thunderstorms (50-70% chance) are expected to develop across central/south central Kansas late today as the SREF indicates an embedded upper level shortwave within a larger scale trough quickly cycling northeast through the Colorado Rockies this afternoon, and farther up into the Upper Midwest this evening. In response, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary is forecast to move very little through early evening before being dislodged southward by a secondary frontal boundary surging in from the north. Ample moisture pooling south of the boundary with surface dewpoints well up into the mid/upper 60s(F) to near 70F will provide significant instability with MUCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg. Despite a less than robust southwest flow aloft (<50kt), thunderstorm development is likely late this afternoon as the core of the upper level shortwave passes just to our northwest in conjunction with a weakening cap as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen from peak daytime heating. The HREF supports this showing a 20-40% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch across south central Kansas, generally southeast of a Larned to Minneola line by late this evening. Strong instability and favorable deep layer shear will increase severe potential, including large hail and possibly a tornado or two. Drier conditions will then take hold through at least early Wednesday with drier air spreading southward into western Kansas while surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Unseasonably cool temperatures are forecast tonight as much cooler air surges southward into western Kansas behind a cold front pushing through western Kansas into northern Oklahoma early/mid-evening, dropping the H85 5C isotherm well down into extreme southwest Kansas. With the HREF painting a 70-90% probability of temperatures dipping below 45F across the region in question to a 30-50% probability of temperatures falling below 50F in south central Kansas, expect lows generally down into the 40s(F) with the upper 30s(F) possible out near the Colorado line. Temperatures remain below normal Tuesday as surface high pressure in the Upper Midwest helps reinforce a the cooler air mass across western Kansas within an easterly upslope flow with H85 temperatures ranging from around 10C in central Kansas to near 15C in extreme southwest Kansas. Considering the HREF shows a 70-90% probability of temperatures topping 65F in west central/central Kansas to a better than 90% probability of exceeding 65F farther south near the Oklahoma line, look for afternoon highs mainly in the 60s(F). Similar temperatures are likely Wednesday under the influence of a prevailing easterly upslope flow. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR to VFR conditions are expected for areas along and north of a GCK to DDC line over the next few hours as stratus forms and tracks into the region from the north. For DDC specifically, visibility issues from haze are expected to be the main driver of MVFR conditions, through some low stratus may cause brief periods of lower ceilings. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions are expected behind the front, especially with thunderstorms tracking to the east of area terminals. Winds across the region remain mostly out of the north, with gusty winds remaining overnight and into the late morning. By late morning to early afternoon, expect a subtle shift to more northeasterly winds, and as this wind shift occurs, gusty conditions should begin to diminish. By late morning, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the TAF period. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ074>078- 084>088. && $$ UPDATE...Bennett DISCUSSION...JJohnson AVIATION...WFO LBF  464 FXUS63 KIWX 182337 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 737 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are anticipated again Tuesday afternoon and evening, with all hazards possible. - Warm and humid through Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. - Cooler with seasonable temperatures and dry midweek. Highs only in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 519 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 While the severe threat has ended, some linger rain and a few embedded storms were persisting across far SE areas. No significant impacts are expected and this area should shift slowly east over the next couple of hours. Thereafter, we should be dry into the late night hours and possibly into Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1014 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Main focus this forecast period is on the severe potential for today and on Tuesday. For today, seems the one limiting factor for today's storms will be the available shear, with values of Bulk Shear is around 20 to 30 kts, this should keep organization of storms minimal and current convective allowing guidance and thinking points to a more linear feature moving northeastward into the area over the next couple of hours from central IL. A plume of dew points in the mid 60s is pushing northeastward ahead of the convection currently pushing across central IL. Surface based CAPE values will run about 2000 to 2500 J/kg over the CWA. With environmental profiles drier near the surface and a moist plume maxing out around 850 mb this creates an inverted-V sounding which is indicative of gusty outflows/winds with thunderstorms this is further illustrated with Downdraft CAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Storm relative helicity values look to remain below the 100 m2/s2 threshold but there is the possibility for an isolated tornado or two. This first batch of storms will move through after Noon EDT and push through the area into this evening til around the 8 PM EDT timeframe. Moderate to heavy rainfall will accompany these storms with precipitable water value sitting around 1.70 inches. Of course, the storm motion speed will be important as if the line moves through quicker that will limit the rainfall amounts but either way looks like we should get a pretty good slug of rain with today's event as trailing stratiform will bring some moderate steady rainfall behind the initial line of thunderstorms as it pushes eastward through the area. Storm totals over the next two days looks to see some areas seeing close to an inch of new rainfall. A break in the action takes place tonight into the overnight period before the better looking set up arrives tomorrow in the form of a cold front associated with a low pressure circulation centered over northern WI. SB CAPE values will be around 1500-2500 J/kg, surface dew points will get into the upper 60s with a few locations seeing lower 70s, bulk shear values 30-40 kts, and mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and helicity values of 100-200 m2/s2. At this time it looks as if all threats will be on the table with the better helicity and shear values associated with the close proximity of the frontal boundary that will push eastward through the area. The exact timing is still a bit hazy but current indications have the frontal boundary approaching the western portions of our CWA around 1 PM EDT and exiting the area by early morning Wednesday. SPC currently has our entire area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for Tuesday. Heavy to moderate rainfall will once again be possible with the thunderstorms and as stated earlier that around 1 inch of new rainfall will be possible with these two batches of storms and locally heavier amounts if the residence times of thunderstorms linger. Inthe wake of the cold front a more zonal flow develops over the region on Wednesday and cooler and drier conditions will arrive. Highs on Wednesday will only get into the 60s which is about a 20 degree drop from the 80s today and Tuesday. Upper level ridging begins to push into the region by Thursday and will start to see a gradual increase in temperatures into the weekend. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 70s. Sunday into the beginning of next week highs will return int 80s. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also increase over the weekend and at this time the best chances will be Friday afternoon and evening with a trough pushing through the area but periods of showers/t-storms will be possible each day into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 727 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions to dominate most of the period at both locations with winds diminishing somewhat this evening before becoming gusty once again late tonight into Tuesday. Confidence is low on evolution of another round of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, with many CAMs pointing towards the best potential east of KSBN and even possibly more of a scattered nature at KFWA. Added some mention for now of precip later in the period, but will have to wait and see how much destabilization occurs and position of the cold front to aid in development. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fisher DISCUSSION...Andersen AVIATION...Fisher  412 FXUS65 KPUB 182336 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 536 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme fire danger continues across our southern plains through early evening, with southwest winds gusting 45 to 50 mph and humidity values in the single digits. - Heightened travel concerns due to 50-60 mph winds over the mountains and southern portions of the area, with blowing dust over the San Luis Valley and southern plains, and blowing snow over the mountains. - Showers continue across the Pikes Peak region with snow levels dropping down to 6500 feet under the heavier snow showers through this evening. Any accumulations will be light, slushy and brief. - Frost and freezes expected for much of the southeast plains tonight, with the coldest readings across El Paso County - Cooler and wetter weather is expected for all areas through mid week with another drying trend for next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Potent upper trough ejecting across CO is bringing a wide range of weather conditions to southern CO, from low clouds, fog, and rain and snow showers with embedded thunder across the mountains and Pikes Peak region, to strong winds and high fire danger across southern sections of the area. The cold front has been stubborn through the morning but winds across southern Baca county have shifted from the south in the past hour and will get gustier through the afternoon as the upper trough ejects to the northeast and the surface low across southern sections of the area ejects eastward. Still looks like gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with humidity levels dropping below 10 percent. This will bring a period of critical to extreme fire weather conditions before the front drops southward to the southern border by 7 PM and humidity levels increase. Current Red Flag Warnings still look on target. Will need to watch closely for blowing dust which could reduce visibility to under a mile at times near plowed fields or areas with loose soil conditions. Across the San Luis Valley, a brief hit of high winds occurred close to 11 AM which prompted the issuance of a High Wind Warning for southern and central portions of the valley. This occurred as the upper jet moves across. Window for strong winds has passed and High Wind Warnings were taken down around 2 PM. Winds will remain gusty to around 40 mph for a few more hours yet. Dust Storm Warnings were downgraded to Blowing Dust Advisories based on conditions in area webcams. Otherwise, north of the cold front along the Arkansas River, temperatures have stayed cooler as clouds have been slow to erode. Best chance of showers for the Pikes Peak region will be this afternoon through early evening and snow levels could locally drop down to 6500 feet under the heavier convective snow bursts. Any accumulations should remain light, melting as it falls due to the warm ground surface. Some ice pellets or graupel could occur under the convective bursts as well but these should be brief. Then stratus will deepen, lower, and spread back southward behind the cold front through the evening. Upslope against the mountains could cause a narrow ribbon of fog and even drizzle along the lower eastern and southern slopes. Concerns then turn towards freezing temperatures and frost conditions across the plains as temperatures behind the front drop into the 30s. Fortunately, we have some clouds and wind to help keep temperatures up slightly, but up against the higher terrain and northern portions of the plains could see temperatures near or a little below freezing with the potential for some frost if some pockets of clearing occur towards morning. Greatest concern is northern El Paso county where aFreeze Warning has been issued. Have gone with frost advisories elsewhere as temperatures will get close to the freezing mark. This is a conservative Frost Advisory, erring on the side of caution given the late season timing of this event. Hopefully not all this area will receive a widespread frost, but protect tender plants if possible. Tuesday will be a quieter day, starting out cloudy in the morning with clearing skies through late morning and afternoon. Easterly upslope flow on the plains will keep higher dew points pinned up against the mountains, with afternoon heating acting on it to generate some showers and thunderstorms over the mountains which will drift off into the adjacent plains. Instability is not all that great and think embedded thunder will be more isolated in coverage. Some overrunning Tuesday night may keep showers going across the southeast mountains and Pikes Peak region as the next upper trough moves into the Great Basin and weak waves eject to the northeast ahead of it. Overall, no fire weather concerns to note as temperatures will be cooler, humidity values higher, and winds lighter. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A cooler and active weather pattern continues through mid week with a series of upper troughs moving across CO. The first one moves across on Wednesday. A little better instability may be present for Wednesday over the mountains, but dew point return is still modest in some models as they increase into the 40s across the plains in the NAM but into the low 50s in the GFS. CIN across the plains should keep it stable with showers and thunderstorms dissipating as they move eastward across the plains, though another round of overrunning may spread some showers across the plains Wednesday night. Thursday could be a more widespread severe weather day for the southeast mountains and plains as southerly return flow advects 50 dew points back into the plains. CAPE could increase to over 1000 J/kg with deep layer shears around 40 kts. We may also have some good forcing as a trough drops in from the northwest in the afternoon. Will have to watch this day closely for severe thunderstorm potential across the plains, but at least the higher humidity values should keep critical fire weather conditions at bay. Friday will be cooler and perhaps more stable behind the front with afternoon showers and thunderstorms confined to the mountains and along the surface front to the south. Warmer and drier weather returns next weekend with at least some isolated thunderstorms possible over and near the mountains both days. -KT && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected at the start of this TAF period and tomorrow afternoon. Overnight tonight, MVFR to IFR conditions are expected as clouds lower over both sites, especially KCOS. For winds, gusty winds will persist into the evening, though will start to quickly lessen in magnitude overnight, with winds at and less than 10 knots. Heading into tomorrow afternoon, a slight uptick in winds is anticipated to around 10-13 knots. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through this TAF period, though light rain or drizzle can't be ruled out for KCOS tonight. KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Looking at winds, gusty winds will persist into the evening, though will start to quickly lessen in magnitude overnight, with winds less than 10 knots. Winds will start to increase again tomorrow afternoon as diurnal mixing develops. Otherwise, periods of mid to high level clouds are anticipated this evening and tomorrow afternoon, with dry conditions through this TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Critical fire weather conditions will continue into the early evening across Las Animas and Baca counties. Gusts up to 50 mph and critically low humidity values will lead to critical to extreme fire weather conditions. The cold front will push back into the southern CO/NM/OK border areas towards 7 PM which will bring a sharp wind shift from the north with gusts up to 40 mph. But this will also bring an increase in humidity levels. Current Red Flag Warnings continue until 8 PM to account for the wind shift and any slight delay in humidity recovery. It is possible these may be able to be cancelled sooner if the frontal passage and humidity recovery is quicker. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ069>071. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ084. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ085>089-094>096. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ230-233- 237. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...SIMCOE FIRE WEATHER...KT  571 FXUS61 KOKX 182339 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 739 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Heat advisory for NE NJ and NYC Metro 11AM Tuesday to 8PM Wednesday. Air Quality Alerts for unhealthy for sensitive groups air quality for high ozone for both rest of today into this evening as well as Tuesday into Tuesday evening for portions of the region. Small craft advisory for ocean waters Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot airmass moving into the forecast region. Airmass getting relatively more humid also heading into midweek. Heat advisory NE NJ and NYC Tuesday late morning through Wednesday early evening. 2) Possible showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. Higher chances of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Marginal severe thunderstorm possibility. 3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday weekend with chances of showers. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... That back door cold front is now east of the area. Ridging aloft has kept the area dry and warm. Mainly dry conditions continue into Tuesday with strong ridging aloft. Offshore high pressure and increasing low level SW warm air advection will make for much warmer temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as well. The models have shifted a few hours later with the timing of the cold front on Wednesday, thereby allowing for more daytime heating and less clouds. Heat advisory for NE NJ and NYC Metro 11AM Tuesday to 8PM Wednesday. This is the first high heat index event of the year for NE NJ and NYC. Warmest day Tuesday with SW flow and daytime mixing. Temperatures in the 90s for all of NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and much of interior Southern CT as well as much of Nassau County NY. Mid to upper 90s for high temperatures much NE NJ and NYC Metro for temperatures and heat indices. Dewpoints are mostly in the low 60s Tuesday. Slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. This same distribution exists for high temperatures on Wednesday as well but a few degrees cooler on average. The dewpoints increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday with values mainly in the low to mid 60s. So for Wednesday, temperatures a little less than the previous day but dewpoints a little higher than the previous day. Highs mostly in the lower 90s Wednesday for much of NE NJ and NYC with corresponding heat indices in the mid 90s. Again, slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. .KEY MESSAGE 2... There is some indication within the forecast models showing a pre-frontal trough developing across the interior for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm for northern parts of the region. Possibility too for a strong to severe thunderstorm, with quick downburst of wind. This is just marginal risk. CAMs indicate this possibility of convection within their reflectivity fields. The cold front looks to move in first for Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT latter half of Wednesday afternoon and then crosses through the NYC Metro and coastal sections by early evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening. There is potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail. Flooding threat minimal with the westerly flow in the atmosphere and quick steering flow. However, a quick period of heavyrain and possible minor flooding cannot be ruled out with some thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday weekend with quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the holiday weekend. In its place, low pressure approaches from the south and west. Model variances on how far north the low reaches. Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday. Northerly flow presents downslope warming first half of the day, allowing for coastal locations to be relatively warmer than inland. Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast mainly in the mid 60s to near 70 and then just low to mid 60s for most locations on Saturday. Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly really limiting the daytime warmth with more maritime influence. Along with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and west. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure remains over the western Atlantic with a frontal system over the mid section of the country. VFR through the TAF period. There is a very low chance of the development of low stratus or patchy fog for KISP tonight. There is also a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon, mainly NW or the NYC metro. Confidence in the occurrence of both of these phenomena were low enough to not include in the TAFs at this time. Winds diminish to under 10 kt from the S/SW. Winds are expected to increase once again on Tuesday with gusts once again to near 20kt. Gusts may be more occasional at times. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be more occasional Tuesday afternoon. Very low chance of a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon/evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday night: VFR. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt into eve. Isolated thunderstorm potential afternoon into early eve, mainly north of NYC terminals with brief MVFR or lower possible. Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower with Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and evening. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt day into eve. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible. NW windshift in the evening. Thursday: Mainly VFR. Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions through Tuesday morning. SCA on the ocean Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, marginal SCA for non- ocean waters but mostly below SCA criteria. Potential widespread SCA conditions Wednesday into Wednesday night. Mainly below SCA thereafter until holiday weekend when SCA conditions potentially return. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 17: KEWR: 68/2015 KBDR: 60/2025 KNYC: 70/1906 KLGA: 68/1965 KJFK: 63/1965 KISP: 62/2015 May 18: KEWR: 74/2017 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 75/2017 KLGA: 80/2017 KJFK: 65/2017 KISP: 63/1977 May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007- 009>011. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075- 176-178. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ004- 006-103>108. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...MW MARINE...JM  544 FXUS64 KEPZ 182339 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 539 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 533 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 - Critical fire weather conditions today due to strong winds and very low humidity. Red Flag Warnings in effect for most of New Mexico and West Texas. - Lighter winds, but still breezy conditions during the afternoons, Tuesday through Friday. Winds shift around to east Saturday and Sunday for areas east of the Rio Grande Valley, increasing low level moisture and bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly over Otero and Hudspeth Counties. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Broad long-wave trough will persist over the western US through Friday with a series of short-waves ejecting out over the forecast area through this same period, allowing breezy afternoons each day. In the short term, one short-wave has just passed through the CWA and now over eastern New Mexico. Another wave is just through the Four Corners and will allow gusty winds to continue into this evening as it sweeps through. At the surface, back door cool front just into far NE New Mexico, with dry-line extending from the western Texas Panhandle down to the Big Bend. Both fronts will retreat north/east today but will be players later in the week. Today...continued gusty winds with critical fire conditions. Some blowing dust is possible again this afternoon, mostly over west Texas but possibly local areas near Deming and Lordsburg also. Tuesday through Thursday...next short-wave deepens some over the Great Basin but makes very little progress eastward. Second impulse dives further south over SoCal, eventually closing off a weak low over the northern Baja Thursday night. Bottom line...moderate mid-level winds will continue but surface pattern is disrupted by back door cool front continuing to lurk over NE New Mexico. Thus lee-side low (weak) develops over northern New Mexico and does not allow strong pressure gradient to develop like more typical NE New Mexico surface low. However winds will still remain breezy each afternoon. Temperatures will remain seasonable. Friday through Sunday...long-wave trough finally begins moving east and weak high pressure aloft starts building over the Desert Southwest. This initially pushes the back door front down to the Sacramento Mtns Friday evening before stalling out. Dry-line also drifts west but remains east of the forecast area through this period. Dewpoints do rise into the 40s, mainly east of the RG Valley. POPs start over the far eastern CWA Saturday and Sunday. Modest instability Saturday, but increases on Sunday. Decent MUCAPE values and some directional shear could allow some strong storms to develop. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions to persist through the period with dry conditions and mostly clear skies, with the exception of some high clouds here and there. Breezy to windy conditions will continue the next few hours but will be on the downtrend after sunset. Light breezes overnight AOB 10KT with low end breeziness expected by 18Z tomorrow. We'll see breezy conditions again through the afternoon hours tomorrow but will not be as windy as today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Today continues in critical fire conditions as gusty winds, which really lasted all night in many locations, increases again this afternoon. Thus Red Flag Warnings will continues into this evening. Tuesday through Friday, wind conditions slacken a bit, but each afternoon will still become breezy. Fire conditions to remain at elevated levels. Winds over the Capitan Mountains will lighten up a bit after today, and will seesignificant wind shift to the east/northeast Friday night and Saturday. This will also produce modest increases in dewpoint/humidity, and could lead to a shower or thunderstorm over eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties Saturday and Sunday. Despite this uptick in moisture, ERCs are still forecast to remain around the 90th percentile through Sunday. Min RH: Lowlands 8-13% through Friday, then 12-18% Sat/Sun. Gila/Black Range 8-15% through Friday, then 12-20% Sat/Sun. Sacramento/Capitan Mountains 10-18% through Friday, then 20-30% Sat/Sun. Vent rates excellent through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 65 92 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 90 56 87 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 54 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 43 67 41 65 / 0 0 0 20 Truth or Consequences 55 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 46 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 53 92 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 62 90 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 92 54 88 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Hancock 59 97 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 85 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 59 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 56 90 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 65 90 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 54 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 91 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 93 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 56 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 49 79 45 76 / 0 0 0 30 Mescalero 47 77 45 76 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 45 74 44 73 / 0 0 0 20 Winston 42 80 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 53 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 87 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 46 84 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 86 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 43 82 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 50 83 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 50 88 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 89 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 89 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 50 82 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County. NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ. Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher  523 FXUS64 KFWD 182338 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 638 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and storms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front moves into and stalls across the region. Heavy rainfall and some strong to severe storms are possible both days. - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue the rest of the week into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible but the severe weather threat appears low. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A warm, humid, and windy afternoon is underway across North and Central Texas as strong southerly flow continues ahead of a dryline to our west and a cold front moving into the Southern Plains. The special 18Z sounding still shows a sizable cap in place, which should suppress most convective attempts through this afternoon. Increasing broad-scale lift may still allow an isolated shower or storm to develop away from the dryline, similar to what occurred yesterday, but the dryline remains the better focus for any more sustained convection late this afternoon and early evening. Any storm that develops should remain isolated, with steep lapse rates supporting some hail potential and collapsing cores capable of producing strong downburst winds. The cold front will move into North Texas Tuesday morning, reaching the I-20 corridor around midday and Central Texas by late afternoon or early evening. Showers and storms should increase in coverage along the front as it moves into a moist and unstable airmass, with the highest rain chances gradually shifting south and east through the day. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary severe hazards, with the overall intensity tied to how much instability can build ahead of the boundary and how much influence any prior outflow has on the frontal zone. Activity should gradually diminish from north to south Tuesday evening as the front settles into Central Texas, with cooler air filtering into North Texas behind the boundary. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The front will slow and become draped across Central or Southeast Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday while southwest flow persists aloft. Showers and storms will remain possible near and north of the boundary, but Wednesday currently looks like a relative minimum in rain chances for much of North and Central Texas as the better forcing and deeper moisture convergence focus farther east and southeast. PoPs will remain in the forecast area-wide, but the highest coverage should favor East Texas and Southeast Texas during this period. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front, with clouds and scattered precipitation keeping many areas near or below seasonal normals through midweek. Rain and storm chances should increase again on Thursday as a compact shortwave embedded in the southwest flow pivots across Central Texas while the remnant frontal zone remains nearby. This setup should provide a better overlap of ascent, moisture, and boundary-focused lift, supporting another round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather potential appears limited by weaker shear and less favorable instability compared to Monday and Tuesday, but locally heavy rainfall will become a greater concern. This will be a cumulative rainfall event, and by Thursday the earlier rounds of rain may begin to moisten the top layer of soils enough to lower runoff thresholds, especially where storms repeatedly move over the same areas. Periodic rain and storm chances will continue Friday into the holiday weekend as additional weakdisturbances move through the persistent southwest flow. The placement of the old frontal zone and any convective outflow boundaries will continue to drive the location of the heaviest rainfall from day to day, keeping confidence lower in the exact corridor of higher totals. The overall pattern supports beneficial rainfall for many areas, but localized flooding concerns may increase where repeated rounds occur, particularly across Central Texas, East Texas, and the Brazos Valley. Severe weather potential should remain low late week into the weekend, with locally heavy rain and occasional lightning becoming the main concerns. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Gusty southerly winds at the TAF sites will continue to gradually decrease in intensity over the course of this evening, though sustained speeds will remain between 15-20 KT through the overnight period. Similar to this morning, another surge in MVFR stratus is expected to blanket the airports between 06-07Z and will linger through the morning before eventually lifting and scattering back to VFR closer to 18-19Z. Flying conditions will get a bit hairy over tomorrow afternoon and evening as showers and storms develop near and along an incoming cold front. Pre-frontal showers and storms may develop a couple hours prior to FROPA and the main line(s), closer to 17Z, but exact coverage and location of this initial development is still uncertain enough to forego inclusion in the TAF. Nonetheless, storms will begin to enter the D10 airports around 18Z, with highest impacts from TSRA (MVFR/IFR or lower cigs and vis as well as erratic, gusty winds and lightning) expected between 19-23Z. ACT will observe storms a few hours later, with VCTS beginning closer to 22Z and higher TSRA impacts around 23-03Z. Eventually, storms will push south of the D10 sites around 00-01Z, with easterly-northeasterly winds prevailing the rest of the extended TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Limited spotter activation may be requested on Tuesday. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 86 68 81 / 10 90 50 60 Waco 75 86 69 81 / 10 80 70 70 Paris 73 83 66 79 / 10 90 70 70 Denton 75 85 66 79 / 10 90 50 60 McKinney 73 85 67 80 / 10 90 50 60 Dallas 75 87 69 82 / 10 80 50 70 Terrell 73 86 67 81 / 10 90 70 70 Corsicana 76 89 71 83 / 10 90 70 70 Temple 76 88 70 82 / 10 60 80 70 Mineral Wells 73 86 64 79 / 10 80 60 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...Prater  563 FXUS64 KLUB 182339 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 639 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 632 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Extremely critical fire weather conditions and strong winds will continue through this evening. - Storm chances arrive in the Rolling Plains early Tuesday morning along a cold front, with area-wide storm chances, some severe, continuing through the end of the week. - Cooler temperatures will persist through most of the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A bimodal risk of dangerous fire weather conditions and severe thunderstorms is expected, with the potential for severe storms confined to the eastern Rolling Plains. In the mid/upper-levels, an amplified, negatively-tilting shortwave trough was digging into the Four Corners region, with a 250 mb and 500 mb jet streak approaching 100 kt and 50 kt, respectively, rounding its base as the trough begins to eject northeastward into the central Great Plains. The most substantial large-scale forcing for ascent remains displaced to the north of the CWA as a result of the position of this compacted, shortwave trough, with only modest ascent expected over the Rolling Plains this afternoon. The 12Z RAOB from WFO AMA observed 55 kt and 50 kt of flow at 250 mb and 500 mb, respectively; as the left-exit region of the southern-stream jetlet remained positioned over the TX PH. High-level flow is expected to weaken by this evening as the negatively-tilted trough ejects over the NE Sandhills by 19/00Z, with mid-level flow eventually veering west-southwestward as the CWA becomes positioned beneath the bifurcated jetlets aloft. Deep- and cloud-layer shear will become modest tonight, with broadly cyclonic flow aloft expected to be maintained through the short-term period. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front was located to the north of the CWA and across the OK PH, with the front bending northwestward where a lee cyclone near RTN was present. A weaker surface cyclone was located north of WWD, with the quasi-stationary front bending farther northeast into central KS. Sharp baroclinity exists with this front, with very cool temperatures on its north side along the I-70 corridor in northwestern KS where temperatures are currently in the middle 40s. There is also a 20-degree temperature gradient between LBL and HHF, or about 85 statute miles. The dryline extends southward from near DUX and is currently positioned along the edge of the Caprock Escarpment where a subtle bulge is present, with the 65 degree isodrosotherm delineated along the 100th meridian. Strong, southwesterly winds were present behind the dryline, with a 53 mph gust observed by the WTM site near Shallowater; and winds remain backed towards the south across the moist sector. Intense heating was also underway across the CWA, and temperatures have already breached 95 degrees for some locales in the Rolling Plains as of 1745Z where surface-based cu continues to bubble. Highs will breach 100 degrees east of the Caprock this afternoon, with near-record highs possible at CDS. For details involving the fire weather forecast today, please read the Fire Weather section below. Isolated-to-widely-scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the southern edge of the dryline bulge this afternoon across the eastern Rolling Plains, with the best potential for storms being in the southeastern zones. Storms that develop will be severe. The 12Z RAOB from WFO AMA sampled a well-defined EML, characterized by MLCAPE values near 2,200 J/kg and near 3,200 J/kg for most-unstable parcel trajectories. Mid-level cooling associated with the geopotential height falls havemaintained very steep lapse rates atop moderate CINH, with L57 of 8.5 deg C/km, which matches current RAP estimates over the Rolling Plains. MLCINH was half of its value from yesterday, or around -131 J/kg, which will continue to erode across the moist sector throughout the afternoon as hot surface temperatures breach 100 degrees. Low-level convergence will be enhanced by the present of the subtle dryline bulge, and with minimal MLCINH by late-afternoon, rapid thunderstorm development is forecast to occur, with storms quickly becoming severe and posing a risk for damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and very large hail up to baseball size. The potential for severe-caliber storms will be early on in the convective stage while cloud-layer shear magnitudes remain modest, at or around 30 kt, as the weakening 250 mb flow will curb hydrometeor venting within updrafts. Initial high-based LCLs within the hotter air will also enhance the magnitude of outflow(s), which may result in some localized merging/clustering of cells as diabatic stabilization of the boundary-layer begins. Therefore, the risk for severe storms will be short-lived, but the steep lapse rates and favorable wind profiles for mid-level mesocyclones yields confidence in an isolated, significant hail up to baseball size across the east and southeastern Rolling Plains. Storm chances along the dryline will end after dark, or by 19/03Z. After dark, the quasi-stationary front currently draped across the OK PH will progress southward into the early morning hours Tuesday as the negatively-tilted trough dampens entirely. The movement of the cold front will be convectively-reinforced by a squall line/MCS across western OK and into the TX Big Country. Moist, isentropic ascent atop the sharp convergence along the cold front may result in the formation of a broken line of elevated storms along the front as it moves southward across the Rolling Plains during the predawn hours Tuesday. Moderate thermal instability will be maintained above the anafront, with the potential for large hail between 1-2" in diameter should updrafts be able to become organized. Otherwise, a mixed-mode of rain showers and weaker storms will be more common by dawn Tuesday. The front is forecast to clear south of the CWA after sunrise, with brisk, northerly winds expected post-FROPA. Winds will gradually veer throughout the morning and into the afternoon hours, with winds diminishing Tuesday afternoon. As previously mentioned, broadly cyclonic flow will persist aloft, and with the potential for convectively-augmented vorticity lobes to propagate over the Permian Basin and into the TX Big Country, elevated storms will be possible across the southeastern Rolling Plains into early Tuesday afternoon, but confidence in this scenario is low, and it appears that any storm potential will be south of the CWA. The surface and low-level airmass in the Rolling Plains will have been contaminated by the passage of the synoptic cold front and remnant outflow boundaries, but with upslope, low-level winds beneath southwesterly flow aloft, the potential cannot be ruled out for a localized severe storm across the southeastern zones. Otherwise, much cooler temperatures are forecast area-wide, with highs ranging from the middle 70s across the far southern TX PH to the middle 80s in the southern South and Rolling Plains. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Broadly cyclonic flow is forecast to persist across the western U.S. through the latter half of the week. Cool temperatures are expected across the CWA Wednesday, with highs struggling to climb above the middle 70s as the post-frontal, upslope flow remains intact. The stalled front is forecast to bend northwestward into eastern NM late Wednesday, and with the CWA positioned beneath the right-entrance region to an amplified jet streak arcing into the Upper Midwest, there is an increasing potential for multiple rounds of storms from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Global and now-in-range mesoscale NWP guidance has been consistent in the potential for an overnight convective event as a vorticity lobe rotates towards the northeast out of northern Mexico, with the possibility for bands or clusters of storms to progress over W TX. Severe-caliber storms will be possible, with the potential for storms to produce heavy rain, but where exactly storms occur remains unclear. The primary severe hazards involved with storms Wednesday will be large hail, as the stalled front will be south and west of the CWA, thereby keeping parcel trajectories elevated above the cool, stable airmass. Storm chances remain forecast throughout the end of the week and into this weekend as broad troughing persists over the western U.S. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR and strong south-southwesterly surface flow will continue through the rest of this evening, with winds then gradually weakening after sunset. A cold front will pass southward through the region tonight, and will bring a shift to strong north winds which will continue from before sunrise on Tuesday through the rest of the morning. Some convective development is expected along the front, with TS possible overnight especially at KCDS with lesser chances for thunder at KLBB and KPVW. A period of post- frontal MVFR CIGs is also possible at all sites on Tuesday morning, with highest confidence in MVFR CIGs at KCDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A high-end fire weather episode is underway today, with extremely critical fire weather conditions expected for a large portion of the CWA. Strong, southwesterly winds between 25-35 mph, with gusts up to 55 mph, will occur across the Caprock and into the far southeastern Texas Panhandle. The only change from the previous forecast(s) was a slight increase in wind gusts, with wind gusts up to 55 mph now expected across most of the Caprock. RH will fall to as low as 4 percent this afternoon amidst hot surface temperatures ranging from the lower-middle 90s on the Caprock to near or in excess of 100 degrees in the Rolling Plains. Very deep mixing of the airmass remains expected, which will facilitate the strongest wind gust potential beyond 3 PM CDT as temperatures peak. The dryline will move into the Rolling Plains by the mid-afternoon hours, with winds transitioning towards the south ahead of it. Isolated-to-scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across the eastern Rolling Plains this afternoon and evening. Cloud-to-ground lightning strikes may occur in rain-free areas. Storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, with sudden and erratic changes in wind direction expected near storms. Otherwise, conditions will be favorable for dangerous growth and spread of wildfires through tonight. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 10 PM CDT for the Caprock and most of the Rolling Plains. A strong cold front will move through the forecast area during the early morning hours Tuesday, and is currently forecast to cross into the far southern TX PH by 3 AM CDT. Trends in the frontal timing will continue to be monitored. A wind shift to the north will occur immediately post-frontal passage, with wind speeds between 15-25 mph and localized gusts between 30-35 mph expected as the cold front moves through the forecast area. Storms may also develop across the Rolling Plains along the cold front. The front is forecast to clear south of the CWA shortly after sunrise Tuesday, with northerly winds gradually diminishing while veering eastward into the afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>037- 039>043. Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>031-033>036. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...30  520 FXUS64 KTSA 182338 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 638 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 635 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Windy with isolated to scattered showers and storms through this evening. Limited severe risk. - Numerous showers and storms Tuesday morning into NE OK spreading southward through early afternoon. Severe weather possible along with locally heavy rainfall. - Cooler temperatures Wednesday-Friday with continued low rain chances through the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1119 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Moist and unstable southerly flow remains in place across the area. Modest lift within the warm advection in the lower levels of the atmosphere is and will continue to result in isolated to scattered showers and storms the next few hours, particularly in far northeast OK and northwest AR. These storms will mostly stay sub severe, but some marginally severe hail is possible in the stronger storms. A few CAMs suggest storms could form along the dry line in western Oklahoma this afternoon, with storms then moving east into the forecast area, though this remains the less likely outcome. If these dry line storms did develop, these storms would have the potential to be severe. Otherwise, warm, humid, and windy conditions will persist through the day with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. Near the tail end of the overnight hours a cold front will move into northeast OK. CAMs disagree on the storm details, but the most probable outcome is for a line of storms to be present along the front. Significant severe weather may occur north of the area, but the expectation is that the storms will be weakening at least somewhat as they approach the area. There are several reasons for this, including relatively weak upper level forcing and weak flow. Still, there will be a threat for strong damaging winds and an isolated tornadic spin up, particularly as storms first enter from Kansas. Areas of heavy rainfall may occur as the storms move through. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1119 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Near dawn on Tuesday the line of storms will be moving through northeast OK, continuing southeast through the early afternoon before exiting the area. Wind shear will remain unimpressive, but there will be sufficient instability with daytime heating for a few storms to become severe. Large hail and strong gusty winds will be the main hazards, with a lesser tornado threat. Behind the cold front temperatures will quickly cool with much drier air. Most guidance is producing a renewal of showers and possibly a thunderstorm north of I-40 Tuesday evening. This will occur along an elevated frontal boundary remaining over the area. Wednesday will be cool and quiet outside of a few showers lingering for southeast OK and northwest AR. Highs will only reach the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps even upper 60s in some spots. Lows will be in the lower 60s and upper 50s. A shortwave trough will dive into the area from the northwest Thursday to Friday, interacting with some remnant troughing across the desert Southwest. This will result in an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the area. With modest but sustained forcing, high PWAT, and a deep layer of minimal CAPE, this will be a good setup for several rounds of moderate rain, with only minimal severe weather risk. Over the weekend and into early next week it gets a little more uncertain, as models aren't confident on whether we get a short term break and warm up and dry out a bit, or if the remnant southwest troughing will keep shower activity going. Either way, if there is a break, it will be short lived with another storm cycle likely into the middle of next week. Overall, it appears somewhat cooler and wetter weather will be here to stay for a while. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions will prevail this evening, with LLWS at all sites until the arrival of a cold front late tonight and Tuesday morning. A line of thunderstorms is expected to accompany the cold front, with reduced ceilings and visibilities and gusty winds. Gusty south winds ahead of the cold front will become north Tuesday, with gusts up to 20 knots through the day. MVFR ceilings will prevail through the day Tuesday following the passage of the cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 67 75 58 71 / 60 70 80 40 FSM 72 84 65 80 / 10 90 70 70 MLC 73 82 61 77 / 10 100 70 50 BVO 61 71 53 69 / 80 40 60 20 FYV 72 80 60 74 / 20 90 80 60 BYV 72 81 59 70 / 20 90 90 60 MKO 71 78 59 73 / 20 90 70 50 MIO 67 74 56 68 / 60 80 70 30 F10 70 78 58 73 / 20 80 70 50 HHW 73 81 65 79 / 10 90 60 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>064-067-154- 254-354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...05  558 FXUS65 KTFX 182339 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 539 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - It will be cold through Tuesday morning. - Isolated rain and snow showers will affect North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana through Friday with the heaviest and most widespread precipitation Wednesday through Thursday. - It will gradually warm up Tuesday afternoon through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: This afternoon an upper-level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. As a result rain/snow showers and cold temperatures (well-below) seasonal averages will linger across the area. This afternoon rain/snow showers will primarily be confined to the Continental Divide with a few isolated rain showers spreading eastward to the plains of North-central Montana. On Tuesday the upper-level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana in the morning before northwest flow aloft moves over the area by the afternooon. This will keep cold temperatures across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana Tuesday morning before they gradually warm up by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday afternoon there will be isolated lower-elevation rain showers and mountain snow showers due to the northwest flow aloft. Additionally there will be enough instability around in the afternoon that there is the potential for a few rumbles of thunder. On Wednesday an upper-level trough, associated with a Canadian Cold Front, moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring rain to lower-elevations and snow to mountain locations on Wednesday. On Wednesday temperatures will cool down to slightly below seasonal averages. Wednesday afternoon some instability will build and allow a few rumbles of thunder to occur across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Thursday the upper-level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow cooler temperatures with widespread precipitation to linger over the area on Thursday. On Friday northwest flow aloft moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up to near seasonal averages with isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. On Saturday and Sunday an upper-level ridge/zonal flow builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm, mostly dry, and windy weather to the area for Memorial Day weekend. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: On Tuesday morning there is a 30 - 70% chance for low temperatures of 28 degrees or colder across the lower-elevations of North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Tuesday there is a 20% chance for thunder across North-central Montana. On Wednesday there is a 15 - 30% chance for thunder across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Wednesday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 50 - 70% chance for a half inch of liquid precipitation. On Wednesday along the Highway 200 Corridor between Great Falls and Lewistown there is 25 - 40% chance for a half inch of liquid precipitation or greater. Elsewhere across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana there is a 10 - 40% chance for a quarter inch of liquid precipitation or greater on Wednesday. Wednesday through Thursday there is greater than a 50% chance for 2 inches of snow or greater across the mountains of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Saturday and Sunday there is a 20 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater. -IG && .AVIATION... 19/00Z TAF Period A few light rain showers will affect the CWA through the early evening hours, before diminishing in coverage by 03z. Generally VFR conditions are expected overnight, but some patchy fog is possible. Another round of light showers is possible on Tuesday. There is just enough instability that a thunderstorm will be possible on Tue afternoon over North Central MT, but the probability is to low to include at a terminal site at this time. Mountains/passes will be obscured at times across the CWA by clouds/precip. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 30 64 40 56 / 0 40 20 70 CTB 29 63 37 53 / 30 20 30 90 HLN 30 65 38 60 / 10 30 30 40 BZN 24 62 33 60 / 0 0 30 20 WYS 15 54 25 54 / 0 10 20 20 DLN 25 61 33 61 / 0 10 20 10 HVR 28 68 40 60 / 0 40 60 50 LWT 26 60 36 56 / 0 20 30 70 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  641 FXUS61 KBTV 182340 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 740 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 252 PM EDT Monday... No significant changes have been made at this time. Well above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 252 PM EDT Monday... 1. Well above normal temperatures expected on Tuesday with much cooler weather expected on Wednesday and Thursday. 2. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. 3. Cooler and drier conditions are favored Thursday and Friday before a transition back to seasonable temperatures and a wetter pattern. && .DISCUSSION... As of 252 PM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Continued warm air advection will set the stage for unseasonably warm temperatures on Tuesday. The latest NBM shows high potential for 90 degree weather, however, much of the other guidance and MOS is showing temperatures likely plateauing in the mid to upper 80s. Cloud cover and convection will be a huge factor in determining how warm we get as a lot of guidance suggests partly to mostly cloudy skies. Any convection would increase cloud cover and any precipitation would drop temperatures significantly. Still, there is overwhelmingly high confidence in high temperatures being 15 to 20 degrees above normal. On Wednesday, a cold front will likely push through the region during the morning hours which will limit daytime heading with strong cold advection expected to follow in the wake of the front. We could still warm into the 80s across eastern Vermont but will likely be in the 70s for most of Vermont and New York based on the timing of the frontal passage. Thursday will be 10-20 degrees colder than Wednesday as we will see temperatures struggle to climb into the mid 50s to lower 60s. North winds in the 10-20 mph range will help make it feel a bit blustery, especially after the recent warmth. Most clear skies should help it feel a little warmer given the late May sun angle. KEY MESSAGE 2: The convective potential for Tuesday continues to remain very conditional. A lot of the machine learning and AI tools are showing modest probabilities (15-30%) for severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening while the latest deterministic guidance shows rather lackluster instability. There is high confidence in around 50 knots of deep-layer shear as we have a strong 500 jet move overhead but the thermodynamic profiles keep fluctuating from model run to model run. Even though temperatures are expected to warm into the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints rising in the lower to mid 60s, the mid-level lapse rates between 850 mb and 500 mb aren't exactly what you want to see to maximize severe potential. In addition, no notable surface convergence outside of orographic lifting is expected with the cold front not expected to come through until Wednesday morning. There will be some weak height falls under anticyclonic flow aloft and a weak shortwave trough pushing through which will give up some deep layer support but getting storms to initially develop will be difficult. The main focus, initially, will be across the higher terrain and along lake breezes as this could create some surface convergence and the upper level support could take over from there. There may be residual cloud cover from overnight convection across western New York which may stunt surface heating. Should this occur, instability values may underperform further and lead to little to no thunderstorm activity. Hence the condition potential. Largely unidirectional wind profiles with slight curvature in the Champlain Valley is expected which likely makes Tuesday a wind threat. High LCLs will strongly inhibit tornado potential with high freezing levels also making severe potential very difficult to come by. The main window for convection will be between 4 and 8 PM with instability waning rapidly following sunset. KEY MESSAGE 3: Winds weaken Thursday night with skies clearing; this may be a period of concern for some frost outside the Champlain Valley with lows in the mid/upper 30s for many locations, and low 40s for the Champlain Valley. Temperatures begin to warm up on Friday with northwest flow weakening, high temperatures will reach the 60s areawide. A slow warming trend is then expected through the weekend into Monday. Models begin to split on precipitation timing heading into the weekend. Consensus maintains some chances of showers increasing Saturday with more widespread rain Sunday. However, a number of models are beginning to hold onto the ridge longer delaying precipitation onset until the late weekend. Either way, a pattern shift to deep return flow from the Gulf Coast northeastward into the Northeast is appearing probable. This flow pattern would result in multiple days of rain potential once it sets up. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. SKC conditions this evening will see gradually increasing clouds overnight, though expect ceilings to remain AOA 10 kft through 12z Tue, and likely AOA 4000 ft through the remainder of the TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon, some of which may be strong to perhaps severe. Coverage/timing is too uncertain at this point to include any mention in the TAF, but MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorms. Surface winds become light and variable around 5 kt this evening. However, a LLJ moving overhead will allow for periods of LLWS at all terminals overnight. Surface winds increase out of the S/SW after 14z Tue, gradually shifting toward the W/SW with gusts of 18-25 kt expected. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Winds have been slow to materialize thus far after plenty of cloud cover and rainfall this morning stunted the winds on Lake Champlain. Winds have currently increased to 15 knots in the broad lake and will continue to increase to 25 knots between 8 and 10 PM this evening. These stronger winds will continue through 8 AM on Tuesday and will diminish to 15 knots or less on Tuesday. Waves are currently ranging between 1 and 2 feet and are expected to increase to 2-4 feet this evening with the highest waves expected across the broad lake. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay DISCUSSION...Neiles/Clay AVIATION...Hastings MARINE...Clay  611 FXUS63 KLMK 182340 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 740 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Today through Tuesday, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 80s to low 90s. Some daily max temperature records could be challenged. * This afternoon/evening, showers and/or thunderstorms arrive, especially for our northwestern counties. This is mainly a wind and hail threat. * A line of strong to severe storms is expected to move through ahead of a cold front on Tuesday, possibly bringing strong winds and hail. The line will weaken as it moves east over the region. * More active weather arrive later this week as multiple rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible going into Memorial Day weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Current mesoanalysis shows 2000-2500 J/kg of uninhibited SBCAPE, about 20kts of deep layer shear, and steep lapse rates. Not seeing much agitated Cu over our CWA just yet, but just to the west, we have seen some initiation. Shear will slightly increase as the MCS approaches the CWA, which will help storms to become slightly more organized. Over the next few hours do expect some scattered strong to severe storms, with a wind and hail threat. The threat area will be small, over southern Indiana and just along the Ohio River. Most of the region will be spared of any storms. Additionally, PWATs near 1.8-2.0 inches and a slowly moving line of storms will allow for heavy rainfall. This line is also moving aprallel to the LLJ, which will allow for training. Due to this, there is also a risk for heavy rainfall to lead to some minor flooding issues over our far northwestern areas in southern Indiana. As the sun sets, we will quickly lose instability. Showers and storms are expected to quickly dissipate. With broken sky cover and light southerly winds, not expecting a great radiational cooling night. Low temperatures will likely remain warm in the upper 60s and low 70s. This will be close to warm minimum records for May 18. Ahead of an approaching cold front, WAA will continue to keep temperatures in the upper 80s and brushing 90. This will help SBCAPE to increase near 3000J/kg. Dew points will also creep into the upper 60s and low 70s. Though shear will remain low around 20kts. Pulse summertime thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon prior to the cold front and association line of storms. When the cold front approaches, we are expecting a decaying line of storms to outrun the best forcing along the cold front. Wind and hail will be the main threat on Tuesday over the northwestern 2/3rd of the CWA. The cold front will begin to slow its progression southward Tuesday night, making it through most of the CWA by Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 As the cold front slowly sags the the south on Wednesday, widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected, especially for the southern half of our area. Rich moisture along the front will help fuel these showers and storms, with LREF PW values ranging from 1.4- 1.7" (>95th percentile climatologically). Instability to the south of the front will also help fuel these showers, with LREF mean SBCAPE around 750-1000 J/kg. The wind shear profile is very meager, so we don't currently expect severe weather at this stage. With the front moving through, temperatures will much closer to normal for this time of year, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s north of the front in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, and highs in the low 80s south of the front in south central Kentucky. The front stalls out just south of our area by Thursday, but with some moisture still in place over our far southern counties chances for showers will be possible (35-50%). With northerly flow at the surface, temperatures across the region will be slightly cooler than Wednesday, with highs in the low-to-mid 70s. Though an area of surface high pressure tries to build in over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions Thursday, a broad upper level trough over the western CONUS pushes eastward and drives the high out of the area. Ahead of the trough axis, a series of shortwaves surges northeastward, lifting the frontal boundary northward Thursday night. Considerable southerly flow at the surface and aloft will allow deep moisture to surge back northward, helping set up a few decent periods of showers and some thunderstorms into Memorial Day weekend. The southerly flow will also allow temperatures to rise back up into the 80s by the weekend, but with dew points again in the mid 60s, it will also feel rather muggy outside. The more active pattern for rounds of showers is currently expected to last through the end of the forecast period, so a little bit of drought relief may finally be on the way. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 739 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 A round of showers and thunderstorms are currently moving NE through southern IN causing gusty/strong winds. Rain chances to be out of HNB and SDF by 05z. A marginal signal for LLWS at HNB/SDF overnight (05-07z) as a LLJ scraps across southern IN. Winds will also take a shift to the SW by tomorrow. A mid level cloud deck will move in tomorrow bringing BKN/OVC100 to all sites. Ahead of a cold front, a line of showers and storms will move in tomorrow afternoon/evening. Wind gusts are expected to increase during this time with the potential for lower vis during periods of heavier rain. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRW LONG TERM...BEN AVIATION...CAL  636 FXUS63 KSGF 182340 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 640 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Moderate Risk (3 out of 4) for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall that may result in flash flooding this afternoon and another round overnight. A Flood Watch in effect for an area north of Interstate 44 towards the Highway 54 corridor. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches. - A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Primary hazard is damaging wind gusts and large hail to the size of quarters. - A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms overnight tonight into Tuesday. A line of thunderstorms expected to quickly move through the area, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. There is a lower chance for a few, brief tornadoes. - Additional rainfall chances (40-70%) mid to late week along with cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows southwest flow aloft with a strong shortwave over Colorado. There is a compact shortwave currently moving into Arkansas. While the low level jet has weakened, it remains out of the southwest around 35-40kts over the area. An outflow boundary from overnight storms was beginning to wash out however it remains west to east from about Barton County east/northeast to Phelps county. A moist and unstable airmass continues over the area with the 12Z sounding measuring 2500j/kg MU CAPE and 0-6km shear around 30kts. Thunderstorms continue to develop along and north of that outflow boundary, especially in the Flood Watch area. Temperatures varied drastically with 60s along/north of Highway 54 to lower 80s further south. Thunderstorm/Flood Threat This Afternoon: Latest meso trends and 12z HREF/REFS supports continued development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over the northern half of the area. Given the CAPE/Shear combo, a few severe storms are possible with large hail and damaging winds the most likely hazards. Flash flooding will be a concern in the Flood Watch area, especially locations that have received several inches of rainfall already. There should be a decreasing trend in storm coverage closer to 6-9pm. Round of thunderstorms Overnight/Tuesday: Confidence is high that significant severe storms will develop in Kansas this afternoon and evening along a cold front and an area of high shear and high instability. The storms look to quickly grow upscale into a QLCS and will expand southwest towards Oklahoma. Latest guidance suggests that the QLCS will move southeast and enter our southeast Kansas and western Missouri counties shortly after midnight. ML CAPE around 1500j/kg and 0-3km shear around 30kts will allow for the potential for damaging winds to be the most likely hazard as this line of storms moves southeast through the area. We will need to monitor for any line segments that can surge/pivot to the east-northeast as there will be a potential for a brief tornado, especially locations west of Highway 65. There remains uncertainty with respect to the exact timing of the line as it moves through the area however it should be along the I-44 corridor in the 4am to 8am time frame. The instability levels will continue to decrease overnight therefore an overall weakening trend seems likely as storms move southeast of I-44 early Tuesday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is possible with the storms overnight. We did extend the Flood Watch until 18Z Tuesday to account for the next round of rainfall. The remainder of Tuesday is uncertain as there are questions about how fast the front moves through the area during the day. There are afew CAMS that suggest that storms intensify during the afternoon, mainly southeast of I-44. Large hail and damaging winds would be the most likely hazards if storms redevelop/intensify Tuesday afternoon. Considerable uncertainty exists with additional updates likely. Temps will also begin to fall quickly behind the front with 60s in some areas by late Tuesday afternoon. Additional post frontal showers look likely Tuesday evening as additional energy moves through the area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Additional Rain Chances/Cooler Weather Mid/Late Week: Ensemble data continues to suggests that the overall upper level pattern west/southwest with several disturbances moving through the region. The front that moves through Tuesday looks to stay south of the area Wednesday however given the flow, additional precip chances are possible south of I-44. The front does appear to attempt to lift north into the area Thursday and persist through Saturday. Precip chances currently from the NBM are rather pessimistic with chances greater than 50% at times, especially closer to Thursday and Friday. Currently not seeing a signal for severe storms or flooding. Temps will remain cooler than previous days, especially Wednesday with slowly climbing temps closer to 80 degrees by the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A line of thunderstorms currently over Kansas will shift into the area tonight into Tuesday morning. Strong to severe storms are possible with this activity. A cold front will move through on Tuesday, bringing MVFR to possibly IFR conditions. Confidence in forecast values decreases with time due to uncertainty related to convective evolution. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for KSZ073. MO...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for MOZ055>058-066>071- 078>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Titus  721 FXUS62 KCHS 182342 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 742 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section has been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Minor coastal flooding is possible along coastal areas of Charleston and Colleton Counties with high tide this evening and possibly Tuesday evening. - 2) Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Minor coastal flooding is possible along coastal areas of Charleston and Colleton Counties with high tide this evening and possibly Tuesday evening. Astronomical influences associated with the recent new moon and lunar perigee along with a modest onshore flow will continue to drive elevated tide levels, potentially leading to minor coastal flooding along parts of the lower South Carolina coast this evening. The latest forecast advertises a peak high tide 7.0-7.2 ft MLLW in the Charleston Harbor this evening and 6.9-7.1 ft MLLW Tuesday evening. A Coastal Flood Advisory for Coastal Colleton and Charleston Counties could be needed for this evening's high tide and possibly again Tuesday evening, although confidence in reaching the 7.0 ft MLLW minor flood stage is much more uncertain by then. Astronomical tide levels then begin to fall and the potential for minor coastal flooding will diminish. KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. The synoptic pattern is forecast to shift slightly during the latter half of the week, bringing a more unsettled weather regime to the region. While finer details remain uncertain, most guidance indicates shortwave energy rounding the northwestern periphery of an upper ridge Wednesday into Friday. At the surface, a cold front is expected to drop southeastward across the Great Appalachian Valley late Wednesday before potentially stalling across the Carolinas and later lifting into the Northeast U.S. as a warm front by Saturday. The approach of this boundary will promote increasing moisture and rain chances across the region. However, the eventual placement and southward progression of the front will play a key role in determining where and how much precipitation occurs. Notably, the latest ensemble guidance indicates a 20-50% probability of accumulated rainfall exceeding one inch, with the highest probabilities currently focused inland. In terms of severe weather potential, the latest solutions favor the deeper moisture and thus greater instability to remain to our north. Additionally, weak forcing and shear will keep the potential for severe weather low during this latter portion of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Generally VFR throughout the 00Z period, though there could be scattered pockets of ground fog for areas inland from the coast as winds weaken. Low-level condensation pressure defecits look to be too high for widespread/thick fog, especially across southeast South Carolina, so any fog that does form will likely be fairly shallow and transient. Southeast winds increase throughout the morning hours, becoming marginally gusty behind an afternoon sea breeze. Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence concerns. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: The synoptic flow regime will change little through tonight as Atlantic high pressure remains centered well offshore. An easterly flow regime will prevail with east to southeast winds 15 kt or less prevailing. Some local enhancement could occur along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor this afternoon with the sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 ft. Tuesday through Saturday: No marine concerns are expected. High pressure to the east will drive onshore east-southeasterly flow each day, with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each afternoon and evening there could be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas should average 2-4 feet through the period. Rip Currents: Influences from the new moon cycle combined with persistent onshore flow will produce an elevated risk of rip currents. A moderate risk for rip currents is in place for all beaches through Tuesday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ149- 150. MARINE...None. && $$ BRS  723 FXUS63 KFSD 182342 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 642 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms return to the area this afternoon this evening into tonight. - A few storms along and southeast of a Wayne to Sheldon to Windom line may be strong to severe late this afternoon into this evening. The main threat would be hail to half dollar size but storms this strong should remain very isolated and likely closer to near and east of Highway 60. - Areas of frost or freeze will be possible on Wednesday morning, with the better chances north of I-90. - Cool conditions prevail this week. Dry weather expected mid week. Another round of storms is possible Thursday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Early this afternoon the surface to 925 mb front was across southern NE into southern IA. Given the marginal strength of the incoming wave, this boundary should not lift far enough north and west by late afternoon to get into the area. This should limit any wind and tornado threats and keep them off to the southeast. However, some elevated hailers will remain possible across mainly northwest IA as elevated CAPE values ramp up to about 1000-1500 J/KG and deep layer shear is a fairly strong, unidirectional 40-50 knots. This would be lifting a parcel from above the stratus layer, which would likely be in about the 800-750mb layer. The better chances will be from about 5 pm to 9 pm. After this wave pushes the remaining instability out of the area this evening, dry and cool conditions are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. The only concerns on these two days will be the potential for frost and freeze conditions, mostly north of I-90, as surface high pressure is in place. Another weaker wave moves through the area on Wednesday but for now this appears to bring mainly mid level cloud cover. The next better chance for showers and thunderstorms will come Thursday night into Friday night. At this time severe weather looks to remain isolated as model instability fields are hinting at 1000 J/kg CAPE or less for the most part. Once this wave passes a warming trend should move in as flat ridging aloft develops ahead of a deepening low pressure in the Northern Rockies. Saturday should be mild, likely in the 70s, while Sunday sees the better chance to warm into the 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Mainly IFR to LIFR ceiling and vsbys continue this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, we're continuing to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop east of I-29. While these conditions will likely persist into the evening, should see things transition to mainly MVFR to IFR cigs as the lower ceilings continues to produce pockets of drizzle. Otherwise, breezy northwesterly winds will continue into the overnight to end the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...05  752 FXUS64 KAMA 182343 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 643 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - High-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions persist Today. - A cold front will arrive this evening bringing northerly winds and cooler temperatures. - Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning as early as Tuesday night and extending through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Hot, dry, and gusty conditions are solidly imposing their will on the Panhandles once again today, creating high-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions across the Panhandles. These details are investigated further in the fire weather forecast discussion. A storm system traversing the central Plains today is responsible for our active weather today, and will continue pushing eastward through the overnight hours. As the base of this large trough passes over the region through this afternoon, a sharpening dry line will become rooted in the vicinity of the TX - OK state line. East of this feature, southeast winds are advecting higher dew points in the 60s while building strong instability of over 4000 J/kg MLCAPE. This environment would be extremely conducive for severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards (damaging, hail, & tornadoes), but it is uncertain if we will get any successful attempts at convective initiation in the far eastern Panhandles before the dry line fully mixes out of our CWA into western Oklahoma. Proximity to better synoptic support would give the far NE & SE Panhandles near Beaver/Lipscomb and Collingsworth counties respectively the better chances for storms, although the probability for development is still only about 15%. As the system departs, a relatively strong cold front will drop southward over the region this evening, bringing breezy northerly winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph through the overnight hours (10-20% chance for a few rogue gusts >40 mph). This will finally provide improved moisture and cooler temperatures to mitigate fire weather concerns for the Panhandles by Tuesday. Winds will gradually settle to 10-15 mph later tomorrow with cooler highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s for most locations. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Is a pattern change truly on the way? Will rain chances finally pan out? Medium and long range weather models have been insisting for some time now that the onset of El Nino will provide increasing moisture opportunities for the high Plains during late May to early June. Now that we are knocking on the door of this time frame, models have insistingly held onto this hope for better rain chances over the next week or two. Ensemble projections depict multiple rounds of systems approaching the Panhandles beginning Wednesday and lasting into next week, with decent potential to pull improved moisture along with them. Many of these opportunities will likely only bring hit or miss showers and storms, but some locations could certainly get lucky with rain any given day during this stretch (15-30% POPs daily). Wednesday - Thursday is currently the most promising window for storms, as southwest flow aloft settles atop the Plains and draws improved theta-e thanks to troughing over the western CONUS. Concerns exist that a localized dry slot may prevent moisture return from effectively spreading across the area Wednesday, but many models have additional moisture influx negating this issue later in the day. Highest confidence in storm development exists further west in the higher terrain of New Mexico and further south across the West TX Big Country, but some of this activity could spread north and east into the Panhandles if moisture is favorable. Thursday's rain chances would likely be conditional based on Wed night activity, but the synoptic pattern will remain relatively unchanged. One bonus to the forecast pattern outside of rain chances, is the high likelihood of the return to near or below average temperatures to end the month. After the anomalously hot, windy, and dry stretch we've been in, the outlook of lighter winds, cooler temperatures, and higher humidity should provide an extremely welcomed reprieve from fire weather concerns. Harrel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 BLDU expected to persist until around 1-2Z, but as winds decrease around sunset, risk for BLDU should as well. winds are expected to calm down from current conditions until a frontal passage, which will turn winds from WSW to N and increase wind speeds to 20-25 kts sustained gusting to 30-35 kts. BLDU is expected to occur with the frontal passage as well, as we have received reports of dust being picked up by the front. TAFs reflect this with BLDU at each TAF site at the associated time the front is expected to move through. After the front passes, winds are expected to turn E near the end of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1053 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 With extremely critical fire weather conditions still expected to materialize this afternoon and evening, the arguably greatest factor of concern lies with any existing fires and the arrival of a cold front to the region later this evening. This front dropped further south than models anticipated this morning, helping higher humidity and cooler temperatures linger across the NW and central Panhandles. Unfortunately, there are no favorable parameters for these conditions to linger through the day, and the front should easily retreat northward allowing drier air and southwest winds of 25-35 mph gusting up to 50 mph to take over the rest of this afternoon-evening. The cold front will fully breach the Panhandles this evening, quickly shifting winds out of the north at 15-25 mph gusting up to 35 mph (10-20% chance for a few gusts >40 mph). Better moisture behind the front will help humidity values greatly improve overnight (60-90% RH), but the initial wind shift will pose a significant risk for any existing fires to spread rapidly southward. This front is currently projected to reach the OK Panhandle as early as 6-8 PM, the northern and central TX Panhandle as early as 8-10 PM, and the I- 40 corridor by 10 PM to midnight. We will monitor the timing of the front closely through the day. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ001>020-317. Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ001>020-317. OK...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for OKZ001>003. Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...23  737 FXUS64 KMOB 182342 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 642 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - A HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect for all area beaches on Tuesday. - Rain chances increase by mid to late next week, especially over the northwestern portion of the forecast area. - Localized patchy fog will be possible late tonight and late Tuesday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Forecast on track. MM/25 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 An upper ridge builds across the extreme southeast states through Tuesday then weakens going into Thursday before rebuilding late this weekend. A large upper trof pattern located mostly over the western half of the CONUS eventually progresses mostly across the interior eastern states through this weekend, and in the process maintains a southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. A series of shortwaves move through the southwesterly flow over the area meanwhile, which along with a weak sea breeze circulation developing each day will lead to convective development. That said, subsidence effects associated with the nearby upper ridge are anticipated to make for a mainly dry day on Tuesday, then going into Friday tend to limit convective development over eastern portions of the area. Have gone with slight chance to chance pops on Wednesday for much of the area, then for Thursday will have slight chance to chance pops mainly west of I-65. While the upper ridge is anticipated to rebuild going into the weekend, it also becomes oriented mainly across the Florida peninsula. Predominately likely pops return for Friday through Sunday over western portions of the area, while further to the east pops gradually trend to chance pops. Patchy fog will be possible late tonight and late Tuesday night, with the potential for some localized thick fog. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected through tonight, then a High Risk follows for Tuesday. A moderate risk is anticipated for Wednesday with a low risk for Thursday and Friday. /29 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR flight category generally prevails across the area with some spots nearer the coast still dealing with a broken MVFR ceiling from a cumulus field associated with peak afternoon heating. VFR flight category should return for all areas near or shortly after sunset until we see MVFR to IFR ceilings return late tonight into early Tuesday morning. These should lift fairly quickly after daybreak, with most locations returning back to VFR by mid morning. Winds will continue to be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 knots through Tuesday, relaxing to below 5 knots during the night tonight. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through Saturday. Seas will build slightly through tonight then diminish Wednesday into Thursday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 71 87 70 87 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 72 84 72 85 / 10 0 0 10 Destin 71 83 71 84 / 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 66 91 67 90 / 10 20 10 30 Waynesboro 71 90 70 89 / 0 10 10 30 Camden 68 89 69 88 / 0 0 10 30 Crestview 66 91 67 91 / 10 20 0 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  909 FXUS61 KGYX 182345 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 745 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of far southern New Hampshire Tuesday. Temperatures will climb into the lower 90s into the early afternoon, with heat index values up to 95. A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been expanded to include all of New Hampshire and much of southwestern Maine Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot, well above normal temperatures move into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected Tuesday, with warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Another round of hot temperatures is possible Wednesday, mainly focused from the interior to the coast. 2. An approaching cold front will bring chances for thunderstorms Tuesday and chances for showers and storms Wednesday when the front crosses. Any thunderstorm that develops Tuesday will have the potential to become severe. 3. High pressure builds in Thursday and Friday for mostly dry and cooler weather. Uncertainty exists going into the weekend as moisture approaches from the southwest while high pressure may keep things dry through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Broad warm sector across the eastern CONUS is evident on 850mb analysis. Upper jet remains well north of the Great Lakes, and low level SW winds will begin to advect warmer low level temperatures tonight. Brief high pres moves overhead tonight bringing mostly clear skies and calm winds. The incoming low level warm airmass makes its presence known, developing a very steep low level inversion through the evening hours. This is especially pronounced along the ME coast where surface winds become onshore with some fog potentially moving inland late tonight. By Tuesday morning, clear skies should allow full sun for rapid surface heating through the morning hours. The incoming airmass will near record max climo for temps at 850mb over much of New England, sitting in the 99.5 percentile for southern NH and through coastal/interior ME. Daytime mixing will easily tap into this air pushing surface temperatures into the upper 80s, with low 90s for the southern half of NH. This won't be as humid as our summer heat events as the low level moisture is thin. However being the first hot, summer-like heat of the season, went ahead with a Heat Advisory for Hillsborough and interior Rockingham counties in New Hampshire. Heat index values will largely remain in the lower 90s here, but will approach 95 through the afternoon. Southwest breeze continues into the Tues overnight hours, and this will keep temps warm. Lows only dip into the upper 60s to around 70 for much of the interior and coast Tuesday night, mitigating temp recovery. This sets up another warm day for Wednesday, but current forecast highs fall short of those on Tuesday. The hot temps will be more focused on coastal/interior ME and SE NH as a cold front approaches from the west. This should bring more seasonable temps for the mountains and foothills depending on convective activity. As the front pushes off the coast Wed evening, a more refreshing night is expected with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure and attendant warm front will be lifting northeastward through Quebec Tuesday with the trailing cold front draped southwestward through the Great Lakes region. This will leave northern New England within the warm sector Tuesday into Tuesday night as the cold front is progged to cross Wednesday. Temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points around 60 will yield SB CAPE upwards of 1500 J/kg Tuesday afternoon. Deep layer shear of 25 to 35 kts will support some organized convection while a limiting factor will be that the main source of lift, the cold front, will remain well west of the area through Tuesday night. The 12Z HREF suggests that widely scattered storms will remain possible in the absence of lift with few containing robust rotating updrafts. The best storm chances will be during the afternoon across the interior while a few cam solutions suggest storms could track all the way to the coast. The primary hazard will be damaging winds as model soundings show inverted V profiles with dew point depressions greater than 20 degrees. Mid level lapse rates are not impressive while hail will still be possible with any strong rotating updraft. CAMs suggest the chances for storms will diminish Tuesday night, however, as the forecast area remains in the warm sector some overnight convection cannot be ruled out. The cold front will finally arrive into western New England Wednesday morning and will push offshore Wednesday afternoon. Available CAM guidance suggests that a corridor of SB CAPE around 1000 J/kg will develop ahead of the front with deep layer shear around 35 kts. Most solutions push the front through the area prior to peak heating limiting thunderstorm potential to areas south of the mountains. Dry air arriving aloft may also limit any sustained updrafts with the latest outlook from SPC keeping the Marginal Risk south of the area for Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds in from the WNW Wednesday night into Thursday bringing a period of breezy northwest winds. Skies look to be mostly sunny Thursday withs highs ranging from the 50s north to mid 60s along the coast. High pressure will center over southern New England Friday allowing winds to relax across the south while a short wave moving through eastern Canada will maintain breezy conditions across the mountains and central Maine. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 50s north to upper 60s south of the mountains under mostly fair skies. Short waves ejecting out of a trough out of the central US will send moisture towards New England. Global models suggest that high pressure over the Northeast will help suppress this moisture into Saturday into Sunday. The NBM generally keeps PoPs less than 50 percent through the weekend which seems reasonable at this time range. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00z Wednesday...VFR through this evening as winds become calm. Onshore flow along the ME coast could develop low stratus and/or fog to RKD at or after midnight local, but confidence remains low based off current satellite not showing any visible marine stratus deck over the ocean. This may only be in vicinity of PSM. Fog should then lift Tues morning after sunrise and a offshore wind shift for PWM south. 35kt LLWS possible for a duration tonight as a steep surface inversion develops. SW winds increase after sunrise Tuesday, with gusts 15 to 20 kt. Isolated to scattered showers develop into early afternoon, with TS possible through to the evening. TS may be focused along a line, passing west to east. MVFR vis possible in SHRA. Outlook: Tuesday night: VFR as SHRA chances exit the coast in the evening, with SW breeze continuing overnight. No sig wx. Wednesday: Scattered showers and TS may bring localized restrictions late morning early afternoon. Otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday night: VFR with NW winds gusting up to 20 kts. Thursday through Friday: Mainly VFR. Friday night through Saturday: Clouds may increase and lower across southern NH and Coastal Maine. Low confidence in height and extent, but could see periods of MVFR south of the mountains. && .MARINE... Onshore winds advect moisture over the coastal waters tonight, with areas of fog possible. This may continue into Tues morning. Showers and storms develop inland Tues afternoon and may track towards the NH/ME coast by evening. SW winds continue overnight, nearing 25 kt but confidence isn't high enough to issue a SCA at this time. Southwest winds turn westerly Wednesday as a cold front approaches and crosses the waters during the afternoon. Winds may gust up to 25 kts with seas approaching 5 feet. Winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds Thursday into Saturday as high pressure builds over the Northeast. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for MEZ023>028. NH...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for NHZ013- 014. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NHZ012-013- 015. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Schroeter AVIATION...Dumont MARINE...  932 FXUS64 KLZK 182345 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 645 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 -Above normal temperatures and high humidity levels the next few days. -Some potential for severe thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday. -Daily rain chances will be in the forecast through the end of the period. -Some locally heavy rainfall is possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Summer-like conditions are in place across the state early this morning as 06z observations include temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s F and Td values in the mid 60s to lower 70s F. This humid airmass will linger for the next couple of days as sfc riding remains to the east of the area and H500 longwave troughing persists across the western US. This will provide steady SW flow throughout much of the atmospheric column. For today, a small piece of energy will traverse the state aloft and could provide for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop throughout the day. Overall coverage is expected to remain limited, but some early morning CAMs show a flourish of activity across the northern half of the state between 12-18z. Otherwise, not much concern for widespread hazardous weather today. That won't be the case to the northwest of the state where widespread strong to severe storms may develop later today. This activity would be focused along a nearly stationary cold front situated from the OK/TX panhandles northeastward to the Great Lakes. As storms merge overnight they will begin to move southeast toward the state as the cold front makes similar progress. This activity is expected to move into Arkansas during the early morning hours Tuesday in a weakened state. Through the afternoon and early evening hours Tuesday there could be some reinvigeration of this activity. The overall severe threat will be determined by how widespread the early morning activity lasts and how far it progresses throughout the day. While instability and mid-level lapse rates look favorable for a severe threat Tuesday afternoon, shear values remain limited during this timeframe. Will begin to see the above normal temperatures relax a bit by Wednesday across the state as the sfc cold front moves southeast. The flow aloft will remain out of the SW and disturbances will continue to move along it. This will provide nearly daily chances for precip across parts of the state. This pattern looks to be locked in through at least the upcoming weekend. There will be some localized concern for heavy rainfall at times across the state the next few days as PW values are expected to be in the 1.5-2.0 inch range. But, given the recent short and long term rainfall deficits in place across the area, FFG values remain substantial. This will limit any major flash flood concerns for the time being. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR condns wl prevail thru the overnight PD w/ some LLWS possible at Nrn to Cntrl terminals. Gusty Srly winds wl subside overnight, but resume near 10 to 15 kts w/ gusts in excess of 20 kts on Tues. A line of TSRA is expected to move into NW AR near 19/12Z, and move SE thru the FA thru the day Tues. Have based timing off of latest guidance, but some uncertainties still exist. Variable, convective winds may accompany TSRA as well, w/ MVFR CIGS/VISBYs accompanying TSRA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 73 86 66 75 / 10 70 60 70 Camden AR 73 90 67 82 / 10 80 60 90 Harrison AR 71 81 61 69 / 10 90 90 60 Hot Springs AR 74 85 66 79 / 10 90 60 80 Little Rock AR 72 88 66 79 / 10 70 60 80 Monticello AR 73 90 68 82 /10 60 80 90 Mount Ida AR 75 82 67 79 / 10 90 60 80 Mountain Home AR 71 82 62 70 / 10 90 80 60 Newport AR 73 89 66 77 / 10 60 60 70 Pine Bluff AR 74 90 68 81 / 10 70 70 90 Russellville AR 72 84 66 78 / 10 90 70 80 Searcy AR 70 88 64 78 / 10 70 60 80 Stuttgart AR 74 90 69 80 / 10 70 70 80 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...67 AVIATION...72  908 FXUS65 KBOU 182345 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 545 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and mountain/foothill snow will gradually decrease through this evening. A few wet snowflakes may still mix in for the I-25 Corridor. - Near freezing temperatures and frost/freeze highlights for most of the plains, but some uncertainty as to how cold with more lingering cloud cover. - Still unsettled Tuesday through Thursday with scattered to numerous showers and a few storms, most numerous in/near the Front Range. - Warming and drying trend for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Satellite shows the upper level trough ejecting east/northeast across the forecast area this afternoon, with an enhanced band of precipitation and even a couple thunderstorms moving east across the forecast area. The precipitation will weaken as it moves onto the eastern plains as the upper level trough continues to shear and weaken, and upper level support is replaced by weak subsidence. After the trough passage, we still have some weak upslope to work with so we'll delay the dissipation of showers in/near the Front Range overnight. In fact, a few light showers could linger well past midnight, with the last of them dissipating in/near the southern foothills toward daybreak Tuesday. All existing Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories will remain in tact through 9 pm, but any travel impacts should be waning as precipitation rates decrease. Still can't rule out a few snowflakes mixing in with the snow down toward the I-25 Urban Corridor during heaviest convective showers this afternoon and then this evening as temperatures aloft cool slightly. With regard to the potential freeze across the plains tonight. The latest trends are for more clouds and higher low level moisture, making it more difficult for temperatures to drop. We think most of the Denver/Boulder metro area will stay just above freezing due to mostly cloudy skies persisting through the night, while the plains north and east of Denver could see areas of frost with partial clearing but still some light northerly winds. The Palmer Divide should still end up colder so went with a Freeze Warning there, but even then only the higher elevations above 6500 feet would be most prone to sub freezing temperatures. On Tuesday, the airmass will be more stable but there's still enough moisture and shallow instability for late day shower/isolated storm development in/near the higher terrain. That shower development and coverage will also be supported by weak QG forcing. Temperatures will remain well below normal, with highs only in the 50s over most of the plains. Wednesday should see an uptick in convective shower/storm coverage in the afternoon as lapse rates aloft become moist adiabatic, and we continue to see weak forcing as the mean upper level trough axis holds off to our west. Temperatures will only moderate a few degrees, and still be 10-15 degrees below normal. The trend for Thursday has been toward more active and stronger convective development. The main reason behind this is a stronger and deeper upper level trough dropping southeast across the Rockies. That will support steeper lapse rates, and combined with moderate low level moisture means increasing instability. MLCAPE from various more reliable progs indicate 500-1000 J/kg across most of the plains and I-25 Corridor, so there will be potential for a couple severe storms. As long as this trough passes by Thursday night (and the slower passage has continued in the latest ensemble means), Friday should finally trend drier. Temperatures will then start a warming trend for this weekend with more zonal flow advertised in the ensembles, so eventually we should return to near or above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/... Issued at 541 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Model soundings and cross sections keep ceilings at DIA in the BKN-OVC008-020 range through 12Z Tuesday morning. Will keep a TEMPO group in for -SHRA through 03Z/04Z this evening. Some models indicate the potential for -SHRA through around 10Z or so. It doesn't look as though any fog will develop at DIA overnight or Tuesday morning. Visibilities should stay P6SM overnight and on Tuesday. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ030- 031-034-035. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ038-042>051. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ041. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...66  798 FXUS65 KFGZ 182344 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 444 PM MST Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Cooler and breezy conditions remain today behind a cold front. Gradually warmer and less windy conditions return for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Gusty southwest winds continue over the eastern half of our CWA this afternoon, the Wind Advisory for Apache County has been extended through the end of the day. Much drier and stable air has moved into the western zones and this will move east across the CWA through the day and into Tuesday. The band of shallow moisture from earlier this morning is slowly mixing out and shower chances have essentially reached zero. The remainder of the week will feature a slow and steady rise in temperatures, dry conditions and typical southwesterly winds each afternoon. A weak trough does persist over the area through at least Friday, so some of those afternoon gusts may have a little extra speed at times, but nothing impactful. By next weekend, ridging forms over the area and we should expect temperatures to rise a bit above normal as a result. However, it still looks very dry. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 19/00Z through Wednesday 20/00Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Becoming S-SW 5-15 kts, gusts 20kts after 15-18Z. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 20/00Z through Friday 22/00Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds SW-W 5-15kts, gusts 20-25kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry and cool conditions. Winds west through southwest 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph each day, strongest in eastern AZ. Minimum afternoon RH is 10-20% on Tuesday, falling to 10-15% on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday....Dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures. Winds west through southwest 5-15 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ011- 014-017. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  054 FXUS61 KCAR 182347 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 747 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - 7:47PM UPDATE for 00z TAFs. See aviation section below... - At the request of the Maine Department of Environmental Protection's Bureau of Air Quality an Air Quality Alert was issued for Ozone from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for the Downeast Coast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm to very warm with a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. A few stronger storms are possible. 2) Below average temperatures are expected Thursday and Thursday Night. Near freezing temperatures are possible early Friday morning across the north, which may require actions to protect vulnerable plants. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Warm to very warm with a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. A few stronger storms are possible. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A little shortwave ahead of a larger trough will drape a warm front over the area that moves north through the day Tuesday. This warm front will bring warm temperatures and instability. Some cloud cover could prevent increased daytime heating which could limit convection. Thunderstorm chances are highest in central and south Maine. Storms may contain gusty winds and potentially small hail and lightning. The risk of a tornado cannot be ruled out. The models have significantly slowed down the progression of the cold front through the region, with it now progged to move through mainly on Wednesday night. This is due to the front being almost parallel to the winds aloft as well as subsidence under the ridging exiting to the east on Wednesday. As a result, Wednesday likely will be the warmest day of the week across most of eastern and south central Maine. Because of this, models are now keying on convection firing mainly along/just north of the sea breeze front over Downeast Maine and into the Bangor region. With around 1000 J/kg of CAPE, 40-50kt of Bulk Shear, could see strong to locally severe storms across this region, with the main threat being strong gusty winds and hail. The tornado threat remains non- zero, with Energy Helicity Index of 0.5 to 1, 0-3km SRH 100-175 m2/s2 and 0-1km SRH 50-100 m2/s2. However the threat is much lower than on Tuesday. Also of note on Wednesday is that the winds should be rather gusty with gusts of 30-35 mph, with some peak gusts to around 40 mph across the Saint John Valley. Highs on Wednesday should run 15-20 degrees above normal. With Dewpoints peaking out around 60, and falling off in the afternoon, this should limit apparent temperatures to the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of eastern and central Maine, with low-mid 70s across the North Woods. KEY MESSAGE 2... Below average temperatures are expected Thursday and Thursday Night. Near freezing temperatures are possible early Friday morning across the north, which may require actions to protect vulnerable plants. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... NW flow in the low levels advects in a much cooler air mass into the region Thursday into Thursday night, as Canadian High pressure builds in from the northwest and west. This high then builds over the area through Friday night. The result will be lows running 5-10 degrees below normal both nights. This should result in frost mainly across Northern Maine. Zones 2, 5, 6, 10, 11, 31 and 32 get added to the frost freeze program on May 21, so a frost advisory could be needed for at least part of that area on both nights if current forecast trends hold. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 00z TAF UPDATE... Tonight, conditions are starting off predominantly VFR across all terms this eve. The primary concern tonight will be widespread LLWS developing at all TAF sites between 03z to 05z and persisting through roughly 10z-12z before easing. Overnight... KBGR/KBHB: KBHB will see a rapid deterioration to IFR/LIFR due to FG and low stratus after 06z, with visibilities dropping to 1/4SM in FG. KBGR is also expected to see a brief window of IFR conditions in patchy fog and low stratus between 08z and 11z. KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: MVFR cigs will begin working into KFVE by 03z and VCSH, low confidence isolated TStorm threat (PROB30 03z-07z). KCAR, KPQI, and KHUL should hold onto VFR cigs. Tuesday AM, marine fog Downeast will lift between 11z-13z, returning KBGR and KBHB to VFR. Conversely, northern terminals will see cigs steadily lower to MVFR, with KFVE deteriorating further to IFR cigs through the late morning and afternoon. By Tuesday afternoon (after 18z), an approaching boundary will trigger scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region. PROB30 groups have been included for -TSRA at KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL, and KBGR. Brief IFR vsby (2SM) and erratic, gusty winds can be expected in and near any heavier convective elements. KBHB is expected to remain south of the main convective threat, carrying only VCSH. Surface winds will generally remain light (under 10 kts) out of the S/SW overnight and into Tuesday AM. Winds will become somewhat variable by Tuesday afternoon, eventually shifting to the W/NW late in the TAF period (around 23z). Previous Discussion... Tuesday night...MVFR possible at northern terminals, IFR possible at KFVE. VFR elsewhere. Some rain showers at northern terminals possible. WSW winds 5 to 10 kt, ramping up through the night, with gusts to 20 kt. Wednesday: Low chance of MVFR early at northern terminals, otherwise VFR. Tempo MVFR/IFR is possible at southern terminals in any strong convection. W-WNW winds G25-30KT likely with a chance of gusts to 35KT at far northern terminals. Wednesday night-Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20-30KT possible during the day Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Winds stay below SCA criteria Monday night, with some gusts of 25 kt on outer waters Tuesday out of the southwest. Some fog is possible Monday night. Rain showers and some thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. Marginal Small Craft Advisory seas around 4 to 6 feet are possible over the coastal ocean waters Tuesday night. Wave heights to around 5 to 7 feet along with gusts up to 25 kt are possible across the outer waters. Small Craft conditions are likely across the coastal waters Wednesday through Thursday, with gusts of 25-30kt and seas of 4-6 ft over the outer waters during this time frame as well. From Thursday night through Saturday, sub-SCA conditions are predicted for the coastal waters and winds less than 25 kt and seas of 5 ft or less are forecast for the outer waters. There is a small chance for some strong thunderstorms over the coastal waters Wednesday afternoon and early Wednesday evening. Sea surface temperatures remain very cold, but are beginning to moderate into the mid 40s. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TF/PM/JS AVIATION...TF/PM/JS  023 FXUS63 KICT 182346 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 646 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the overnight hours. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall are all possible. - Cooler weather begins Tuesday, with highs in the 60s and low 70s through at least Thursday. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday night into the weekend. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, but could see a few strong to severe storms toward the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a potent mid/upper trough ejecting out of the Rockies into the Central Plains. Surface analysis early this afternoon depicts a stalled quasi-cold front spanning from north central KS south/southwest into the OK Panhandle, while a surface low pressure resides near KGBD. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the stalled front. With mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear, storms should grow severe rather quickly, especially early on prior to storm interactions. As prior discussions have mentioned, mostly boundary- parallel shear will promote a messy linear mode with embedded supercell structures. Given the environment, however, initial development will likely be discrete/semi-discrete and supercellular in nature. This will allow for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. We could also see a few landspout tornadoes primarily across central KS given the slow-moving nature of the boundary. The timing for these higher end severe threats appears to be through 8 PM. In addition to these threats, heavy rain arising from training storms may result in flooding concerns, especially in central KS where soils have already been saturated from yesterday's heavy rainfall. As the aforementioned trough continues to eject to the northeast into the Northern Plains this evening, the cold front will pick up speed and progress to the southeast. As this morning's discussion highlighted, this will likely decrease the threat for very large hail and supercell/landspout tornadoes with the growth transitioning into a mostly linear mode. This transition will promote more of a wind threat, but could still see large hail with this activity given the ample instability continuing into the overnight hours. Also can't rule out a few tornadic circulations within the line due to the strong low-level shear/SRH, but this threat should remain low relative to this afternoon's chances. Storm chances will largely exit the region with the departure of the cold front, though far southeast KS could see some lingering showers and storms through the day on Tuesday. Cooler temperatures are forecast throughout the area as well, with the post-frontal airmass promoting afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s through at least Thursday. With the right entrance region of the upper jet progged to linger across the Central/Northern Plains, chances for showers and storms are expected to arrive Wednesday night and last into the weekend. At this point, it appears that Friday will hold the next potential for strong to severe storms given the return of instability and reasonable deep-layer shear. Details this far out are quite uncertain, though widespread severe weather appears unlikely to this point. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A cluster of strong and severe storms was situated over south central Kansas along and immediately in the wake of a cold front. This activity will continue to propagate east/southeast into the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas this evening before exiting Kansas around or shortly after midnight. Damaging winds and large hail will remain possible for terminals in south central and southeast Kansas as the line of storms moves through. MVFR ceilings are expected to expand in the wake of the front with some IFR possible at times. Low clouds will mix out from west to east as we move into the late morning and early afternoon hours on Tuesday but may linger through the day in far southeast Kansas. Breezy northwest winds at 20 to 25 mph will be common over the region on Tuesday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ051>053- 067>070-082-083-091>094-098. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...MWM  011 FXUS63 KJKL 182345 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 745 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through Tuesday afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast late Tuesday into Tuesday night, then persist through next weekend. - The switch to a wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings and produces a highly-beneficial, widespread wetting rainfall. && .UPDATE... Issued at 725 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure to our southeast still in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky while a cold front is noted well off to the northwest. Strong storms are located closer to that boundary but will not make much progress toward the area through the night. However, they are pushing some high clouds and those may slow the temperature drop off this evening. Currently, temperatures are running in the very warm low to mid 80s. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts, dewpoints are generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 435 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 Late this afternoon an upper level ridge extended from the Southern Appalachians across the Carolinas to near Bermuda and another upper ridge was centered in the Gulf. Meanwhile an upper trough extended from Central Canada across Alberta and Saskatchewan to the Four Corners vicinity to the Southwest Conus. A couple of shortwaves were moving around the ridging and across sections of the mid MS Valley and the Lower OH Valley while a more substantial shortwave was working across sections of the Central Plains. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extended from the Atlantic into parts of the Southeast and Southern Appalachians while a wavy frontal zone extended from the Northeast across sections of Quebec and Ontario to the northern and western Great Lakes to the Central Plains to Southwest Conus. Cumulus have developed during the heat of the day and temperatures are mild averaging between 10 and 15 degrees above normal highs for this time of year. Tonight and Tuesday, upper level ridging is expected to remain in place from near or north of Bermuda across the Southeast and into the Gulf. At the same time, a shortwave trough is expected to move across sections of the Central an Northern Plains and into the western Great Lakes through Tuesday morning and then to the Central Great Lakes through the remainder of the day. A general trend of rising 500 mb heights is expected through tonight with near neutral tendencies on Tuesday morning and then some height rises for the afternoon to early evening. Further 500 mb height falls are anticipated to end the period as the upstream shortwave moves to the eastern Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley. At the surface, the high pressure ridge will build into the Southern Plains tonight, before shifting to the south and southeast to end the period. As this occurs a sfc low tracks from the Plains across the Great Lakes and eventually to Ontario and Quebec while the trailing cold front will move into the Northeast and sag across sections of the OH Valley and into eastern KY. Dry weather should prevail through at least midday on Tuesday with the pattern favoring a modest ridge/valley split and temperatures in the coldest locations could fall a couple of degrees below the current forecast based on trends from last night and some mixed dewpoints near the 60 degree mark versus the lower 60s. Valley fog along the larger creeks, rivers, and lakes should form around or near midnight and then dissipate toward 9 AM EDT. With height falls on Tuesday afternoon, some convection cannot be completely ruled out during peak heating in the northwest half of the CWA and it is possible a larger areal extent of slight chance pops may ultimately be needed. Any stronger storm could produce gusty winds as there are some stronger gusts in the 18Z HRRR with some of the activity near peak heating. Better chances arrive later Tuesday evening and especially Tuesday night as the height falls continue and the front nears eastern KY. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 343 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 If the long term period could be summarized with just one word, it would be wet. The period will open with broad ridging over the southeastern US and troughing over the Hudson Bay. This will leave Kentucky in a regime of generally southwesterly flow aloft at the onset of the long term period. At the surface, a cold front will extend through the CONUS from a surface low centered over Quebec and push into eastern Kentucky on Wednesday, although the exact timing of the frontal passage remains dependent the upstream evolution of this system. The environment ahead of the front will be moist (owing to prefrontal southwesterly winds), but instability will be dependent on whether the timing of the frontal passage can align with maximal daytime heating. Accordingly, LREF guidance still shows a wide range of MUCAPE values, but the most likely outcome at this time is that instability should be sufficient for a few thunderstorms. Given that wind shear is expected to be meager, widespread organized severe weather appears unlikely. A few machine learning sources have introduced very low-end probabilities for gusty winds Wednesday afternoon, but this threat remaining highly conditional on favorable frontal timing, and thus confidence remains very low in this outcome. Regardless of storm strength, this system will bring much-needed rain to eastern Kentucky, which currently remains in drought (ranging from D1 conditions in our eastern forecast area to D2 and a pocket of D3 conditions in the western portion of forecast area). With broad ridging over the southeastern CONUS, the aforementioned cold front will struggle to push through into the Atlantic coast states and likely stall over the periphery of the ridge going into Thursday (TN area) before lifting into Kentucky again as a warm front on Friday. This pattern will bring multiple rounds of rain to the forecast area. As such, WPC has introduced multiple Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for the forecast area; one for our entire area on Wednesday, another for the Lake Cumberland area on Thursday, and a third for our entire forecast area again on Friday. QPF does not look overly impressive on any given day; LREF guidance shows that the chance of exceeding 0.5 of rain on any given day is low to moderate (maxing out at around 50% on Wednesday). However, this does not account for enhanced rain rates in any thunderstorms that do develop. If storms track over the same area for multiple days in a row, isolated instances of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. This is especially true closer to the KY/TN border, which will feel the greatest impacts of the stalling front. However, these details will need to be refined in the short term when convective rain rates can be better accounted for. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the period. Following the frontal passage, CAA via postfrontal winds will keep maxTs generally below normal, with a defined thermal gradient over our forecast area as the front stalls. Currently, the NBM is outputting highs in the 80s for the southern portion of our forecast area; however, this appears to be an outlier compared to other guidance, so maxTs were bumped down a few degrees on Thursday afternoon to better account for the frontal passage. After the front lifts northward again, flow will become more southerly, and temperatures will be warmer than on Thursday. The NBMs highs in the upper 70s and low 80s may be slightly overdone given that rain is likely going into Friday afternoon (80-90% chance), but highs do represent an expected warming trend as the warm front lifts northward. Unfortunately (for outdoor activities) or fortunately (for drought relief), this weekend also looks to be quite wet even as the original front exits our area. A slow- moving upper level trough over the central CONUS, in addition to potential embedded impulses, will allow for rain chances every day through the weekend and into the end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 VFR conditions under times of high clouds will prevail through the period. The one caveat will be some valley fog between 04Z and 13Z with local MVFR and IFR reductions that are not expected to affect any of the TAF sites. Otherwise, south to southwest winds will average 6 to 12 kts with gusts to near 20 kts initially but diminishing through the evening. Light and variable winds will be the rule overnight, before becoming south to southwest at 5 to 12 kts again with some gusts up to 20 kts for Tuesday afternoon. By the end of the period, look for some cumulus to again develop between 4 and 6kft agl. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JMW/MARCUS AVIATION...JP/GREIF  022 FXUS63 KMPX 182346 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 646 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers & thunderstorms tonight. A few could become strong to severe storms from far-southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. The overall risk has decreased. - Seasonably cool & dry midweek. Rain chances return at the start of Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 All is quiet to start the day as the surface low pressure sits almost directly over the Twin Cities. Widespread stratus and patchy fog spread out on the north and west side of the low, limiting temperatures from warming this afternoon. The cold front is essentially draped along the I-35 corridor south of the Twin Cities, while the warm front extends east from the Twin Cities slightly north of I-94. Expect scattered showers to develop across the Central Plains this afternoon, and spread north into MN and WI through the evening. The heaviest rainfall and best chance for thunder will be around 8pm to 12am. The best environment for thunder, and potentially a strong to severe storm, will be in that warm sector east of the cold front and south of the warm front (i.e. east of I-35 and south of I-94). Overall the threat has decreased due to limited instability (noted by the 1630z update to the SPC Day 1 SWO). The main threat will be large hail and strong winds, as well as localized flash flooding anywhere that thunderstorms train for several hours. Light rain will wrap up Tuesday morning as the upper level wave pushes east. At the surface, breezy northwest winds will develop and strong CAA will keep temperatures about 10-15 degrees below normal. Additional showers may develop as the cold air advects in, though saturation will be very limited throughout the profile. Mostly quiet weather will persist until this weekend as a shortwave develops over the Northern Plains. This will provide us with a few chances for rain, though ensemble QPF is mostly around a few tenths and in the range of a normal rain event for this time of year. In other words, Memorial day weekend will have occasional rain, but nothing to change plans over at this time. Temperatures will also be gradually rising throughout the week, peaking on Monday with widespread highs in the 80s possible. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Low stratus, MVFR-to-IFR, expected to prevail throughout much of this TAF period. The next round of showers with some embedded TSRA is expected through late this evening/early overnight hours. Visibilities will drop to as low as IFR, particularly if heavy downpours cross over any given site. Precipitation is expected to end overnight to just before dawn Tuesday morning, followed by a slow gradual rise in ceilings throughout the day. Winds will remain northwest throughout the period, with speeds around 10kts during this evening, increasing to near 15G25kts late overnight through the day Tuesday. KMSP... Rain showers shifting NE from southern MN into western WI. MVFR to IFE ceilings to continue, with visibilities potentially into IFR range should heavier downpours move across MSP. As the precip winds down overnight, IFR ceilings will continue but NW winds will increase to near 15G25kts. Cigs return to MVFR mid-morning and nearing VFR by end of TAF Tuesday evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts, shifting to SE. THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...BPH  212 FXUS62 KFFC 182350 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 750 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions will persist through Tuesday. - Warm temperatures continue the next few days with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. - Increased rain chances return from Wednesday through the weekend, especially in northern and western Georgia. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 218 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Warm and Dry Weather Through Tuesday: Conditions will be warm and rain-free for most areas through Tuesday, courtesy of a dry airmass surging into the region throughout the day. The one portion of the area that could see isolated afternoon showers and storms each day is across the GA/AL border, where moisture will be a little higher. Elsewhere, PWAT values will drop to below 1 inch, resulting in mostly clear skies outside of high cirrus and some afternoon fair weather cumulus. High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s across the region each day, with overnight lows only falling to the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 218 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 The extended forecast period will bring a summerlike pattern by our standards, characterized by warm and muggy conditions punctuated by diurnally-enhanced scattered showers and thunderstorms. PoPs initially begin to trend upward on Wednesday, primarily across north and northwest Georgia, as the Southeast ridge begins to flatten as a weak cold front makes gradual progress southeastward. This front will not make much additional forward progress on Thursday as it becomes stationary across the Tennessee Valley vicinity amid southwest flow aloft. This will keep highest PoPs again concentrated generally along and north of I-20 on Thursday. The front then begins to wash out and lift back northward by Friday as southwest flow aloft persists along the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge. While the ridge looks to gradually expand back westward a bit over the weekend, the deep moisture conveyor within the southwest flow should keep at least scattered convective coverage across at least north and west Georgia, though the bulk of the more consistent rainfall will remain relegated to our west. Obviously, any rainfall is appreciated and welcome at this juncture, though this type of "hit-or-miss" summerlike convection will do little to materially alter the course of the ongoing drought. Temperatures will primarily remain a few degrees above normal, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the mid-to- upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 747 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period with winds out of the SE at 7kt or less. Cu field is possible tomorrow afternoon around 5kft. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence on all elements. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 63 89 66 91 / 0 0 0 20 Atlanta 66 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 30 Blairsville 60 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 50 Cartersville 65 89 66 88 / 0 0 0 50 Columbus 66 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 30 Gainesville 63 87 66 88 / 0 0 0 20 Macon 63 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 20 Rome 64 88 64 87 / 0 10 10 60 Peachtree City 64 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 30 Vidalia 64 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...Hernandez  242 FXUS63 KLBF 182350 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 650 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold temperatures may lead to frost and freezing temperatures with the greatest threat generally west of highway 83. - Temperatures will be below normal through Friday with warmer readings expected Saturday through Monday. - Best precipitation chances are Thursday night through Friday. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored to the north of the Bahamas. Ridging extended north of this feature into the Mid- Atlantic and western Quebec. West of the ridge, broad southwesterly flow extended across the eastern half of the CONUS to the central and southern plains. Low pressure was located over central Utah with a trough extending south into eastern Arizona. A second shortwave trough was located over southern Saskatchewan and extended south into north central Montana. Further west, a ridge of high pressure extended across British Columbia north into the Yukon and western portions of the NW Territories of Canada. At the surface this afternoon, low pressure was located over southeastern Minnesota. A cold front extended south, then southwest of this feature into far SE Nebraska and SW Kansas. High pressure was anchored over northern Montana this afternoon. Winds were from the north or northeast across the forecast area this afternoon. Drizzle and very light rainfall was present across the area and temperatures ranged from 40 degrees at Gordon to 45 degrees at Ogallala. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Weak forcing will remain in place across northwestern and northern portions of the forecast area this evening with a lingering threat for precipitation. This threat will end during the overnight hours as weak high pressure builds into Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. This will result in some limited clearing, especially over western portions of the forecast area overnight. With lows forecast around the freezing mark, generally west of highway 61, decided to hoist a freeze warning for locations generally west of highway 61 tonight. Further east, overnight lows will bottom out in the 33 to 35 degree range and decided to hoist a frost advisory. This was in areas where the threat for freeze conditions is limited and cloud cover may become more of a factor overnight. Will we see frost in the advisory area remains uncertain and the latest NBM ensembles only have a 25 to 50 percent chance for sub 34 degree temps along the highway 83 corridor tonight so the advisory is a low to medium confidence advisory. On Tuesday, high pressure will nose into the forecast area from the west leading to limited clearing Tuesday afternoon. Highs Tuesday will struggle to get out of the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. High pressure will slide east into Iowa Tuesday night shifting winds to the south. A weak boundary will lift north overnight into southern Nebraska. At the same time, a weak upper level disturbance will emerge from the central Rockies into northeastern Colorado. Light precipitation will develop in advance of this feature and along the frontal boundary overnight Tuesday night. This will lead to a small threat for precipitation mainly over western and southwestern Nebraska overnight. Further northeast, skies will be mainly clear overnight, and with light winds expected and lows in the middle 30s, will have to watch out for frost potential in the NE forecast area Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A stationary front over southern Kansas, will lift north as a warm front on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop INVOF this feature Wednesday into WEdnesday night as it lifts north into central and northern Kansas. Some very light precipitation north of the warm front, mainly drizzle, may impact southern portions of the forecast area Wednesday night. Any precipitation amounts will be very light across the area and precipitation chances will be limited to slight and low end chance pops. A potent mid level trough will slide east from the central and northern Rockies Thursday into Thursday night. In advance of this feature, low level moisture advection will increase across the forecast area with low level dew points approaching the lower 50s. As this feature emerges onto the high plains Thursday night, the latest deterministic GFS and EC solns develop a decent chance for precipitation Thursday night through Friday night. The current NBM forecast does have some low likely pops Thursday night into Friday across the forecast area. Given the forecast QPF's and the QPF probabilities from the NBM ensembles, likely pops seem justified attm. Conditions will begin to dry out after Friday as a more zonal low amplitude pattern develops across the western CONUS. Temperatures will warm back into the 70s for Saturday, then 80s for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Cigs will remain low the rest of the evening into early tomorrow morning with MVFR to IFR conditions. There will be a chance for light scattered rain showers as well this evening, with brief visibility drops around 3 miles. Winds will remain out of the north to northwest around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts this evening. Winds will briefly be around 5 kts after midnight, before returning to around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts Tuesday morning. Cigs will begin to lift by Tuesday morning with a return to VFR conditions. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ004-022>024-035-036-056-057-094. Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ005-006-008-025-026-037-058-059-069-070. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Gomez  332 FXUS61 KILN 182352 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 752 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Continued to tweak Monday/Tuesday temperatures slightly downward from blended solution. Increased precip/thunderstorm chances for Tuesday afternoon from blended solutions, with only slight change from previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temperatures persist through Tuesday. A cold front approaches the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, bringing a chance for strong to severe storms, followed by cooler temperatures behind the front for mid to late week. 2) Strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A period of well above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday ahead of a cold front that passes through the area late Tuesday night. For today and Tuesday, high temperatures range from the mid-upper 80s to around 90. Temperatures on Wednesday are mitigated in the wake of the front, along with any showers and thunderstorms. Highs are expected to range from near 70 northwest to around 80 southeast. Temperatures cool behind the passage of the front Wednesday, lingering into Thursday. Temperatures climb back to above normal Friday and into the weekend. With the increase in temperatures and moisture, some unsettled weather will return for the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2) Showers and storms across the western part of the forecast area will weaken this evening, eventually dissipating towards or perhaps a bit past midnight. A greater chance for strong to severe storms on Tuesday afternoon into the evening, with main timing from 19-06z, though marginal confidence in especially onset time with varying solutions from the CAMs. Several of the CAMs ramping up SBCAPE values to 2500 J/Kg ahead of the slowly advancing cold front. Effective bulk shear increases to between 20-25kts, but CAM solutions still show pretty unidirectional flow. Strong to severe winds will be the main threat, with DCAPEs ramping up to 900+ J/Kg. The more significant low level shear remains north of the area into northern Ohio/lower Michigan. With plenty of low level moisture and PWATs ramping up to 1.6-1.8", HREF LPMM 24 hour QPF potential of 2 to 2.5" possible, so some potential for isolated minor flooding, though greater heavy rain threat remains west of the forecast area. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms will affect KCVG/KLUK to KDAY to start the TAF period. All of this activity should weaken, but it is possible that it could make it to KILN before doing so. After the precipitation dissipates, will just be left with mid and high clouds. If there are sufficient breaks, then some visibility restrictions in fog may occur at KLUK. For Tuesday, few to scattered cumulus will develop with heating. Winds will increase and gust over 20 kt again from about 15Z onwards. There is the potential for more storms late in the period. A fair bit of uncertainty where storms may develop, but greater probability through 0Z looks to be KCVG/KLUK to KDAY at this point. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will remain possible into Tuesday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday and then again Friday into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JDR AVIATION...  452 FXAK67 PAJK 182354 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 354 PM AKDT Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - A weak system brings some rain to the northern coast tonight into Tuesday, with winds and seas decreasing into Tuesday morning. - Wednesday morning a gale force front impacts the region. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday/ A front passed this morning with westerly winds behind it an some breaks in the clouds showing up through the afternoon. There are some showers still around and expect most along west facing slopes while the lee side will see the best breaks this evening. A band of vorticity looks to track over the region tonight, so have kept scattered shower potential in the forecast for that, namely across the north. There is also CAA behind this front, so expecting a chilly night, some places that clear out more across the north could see temps into the mid 30s, getting close to frost potential, but kept it just above that due to the amount of clouds around. Upper level ridging sharpens some for Tuesday with NWLY flow, so more breaks are in the works, especially for the southern inner channels (Ketchikan). Isolated showers will remain around the northern mountains with best breaks over the inner channels. Some sunshine will make it feel markedly warmer than the last couple days and made a point to have Tuesday be warmer than Monday or Wednesday. The next front will be on our doorstep Tuesday night. Yakutat can expect rain before dawn and winds will back around to the S-SE ahead of the front. Rain will spread across the panhandle through day, becoming heavy at times along the northern/central outer coast in the morning and afternoon. Rain will take until late afternoon to reach as far east as Hyder. Looking at frontal passage with a wind shift to the west again late Wednesday night. .LONG TERM.../ Thursday to Monday / Thursday will likely be showers or fading shower activity in a post weather front (Wednesday's) situation. The associated low feature near Prince William Sound weakens and will be getting absorbed during Thursday/Thursday night into the front from a low over Bristol Bay. The new front sweeps the western gulf Thursday and to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night. Yakutat should Good rain rates Thursday night. The front is forecast to be weakening, as the feature moves way from the parent low which stayed over Bristol Bay so Friday across the panhandle is a front band followed by the ridge over the gulf to the panhandle for the start of the weekend. For the Memorial Day Weekend / Saturday to Monday / The models here are still trying to settle into a pattern. Indications is that system will spin into the Gulf of Alaska however its intensity is what were watching have started to bring week to moderate low pressure/wind wise into the thinking but that may need rework. The weekend may be cool and damp or could be wet and windy, especially over the southern panhandle. A stronger low near the Prince of Wales region may mean a drier off shore potential pattern for the northern panhandle. && .AVIATION.../Through Tuesday Afternoon/... A mixed bag of conditions prevails across SE AK While the northern and central panhandle saw improving conditions on Monday, parts of the southern panhandle retained IFR or near IFR CIGS up until the late afternoon. Still, nearly all locations have now improved to MVFR (south) or VFR (north). During the overnight hours, expect CIGS in the Northern panhandle to diminish back to VFR for some locations, with a weak front arriving on Tuesday which will keep CIGS ~2k to 3 kt ft. For the southern panhandle, conditions will generally continue to improve, with the front expected to move north. However, chances of fog exist forsome locations, and where fog does develop overnight, IFR or even LIFR CIGS and VIS cannot be ruled out. Any fog that does form will swiftly dissipate through the mid to late morning on Tuesday, with the remainder of Tuesday like to see VFR or upper level MVFR conditions. && .MARINE... Winds continue to diminish in the wake of a front which moved through on Sunday, although respectable southerly flow will persist in Northern Lynn Canal through the foreseeable future. A system moving across the Gulf on Tuesday arrives in SE AK on Wednesday, bringing gale force winds to the N and NE Gulf Coast, and small craft conditions to the inner channels. Outside coastal waters: Winds have diminished substantially in the wake of the last system, and seas will be following suit Monday evening, with seas trending down to 6 to 7 ft for most areas with the exception of the N Gulf East of Yakutat Bay. WInds trend upwards on Tuesday across the Gulf, and by Tuesday night for the outer coast, as another system approaches SE AK. Expect gale force winds to be largely focused around the northern gulf and gulf coast, down as far as Cape Fairweather. Waveheights ramp back up as this system moves in, reaching 12-15 ft on Wednesday. Winds and waveheights then diminish late Wednesday into Thursday as the system departs. Inside Channels: Winds diminish across the inner channels through Monday evening, with the exception of Lynn Canal, where elevated flow of ~20 kt persists. Winds will ramp back up to 10-15 kt on Tuesday, as southerly flow is sustained by a weak wave moving onshore. Wednesday will see widespread sustained southerly winds of 25 to 30 kt as a strong warm front moves onshore, alongside elevated seas, with ocean entrances reaching 10+ feet, and areas where swell reaches seeing additional inclement conditions. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ferrin LONG TERM...Bezenek AVIATION...GFS MARINE...GFS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  432 FXUS63 KDMX 182354 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 654 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of severe storms this evening into tonight. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are also possible as a line of storms moves west to east across the state. The highest probability of severe weather will be from southwestern into central and south central Iowa. - Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of flash flooding in extreme southwest Iowa this evening into tonight, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) across the remainder of our forecast area. Flood Watches are in effect from extreme southwest Iowa into adjacent parts of Nebraska and Missouri. - Breezy late tonight into Tuesday, with cooler and drier weather through Wednesday. Lows in the 30s north and west Wednesday morning. - Rain chances return in the latter part of the week, especially around Thursday night and Friday. Warmer weather forecast next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A deep 500 MB trough is digging across the Rockies and western High Plains this afternoon, with a pronounced vorticity maximum rounding the base and kicking out over eastern Colorado as a negatively tilted shortwave that will move northeastward over NE/IA/SD/MN this evening into early tonight. At the surface, an elongated inverted trough stretches from an attendant surface low developing near the TX panhandle northeastward over Kansas and Iowa, roughly from around Red Oak to Cresco at this time. West of the trough low stratus clouds have socked in the region over northwestern Iowa and adjacent states, with limited insolation reinforcing the developing baroclinic zone/effective cold front, while east of the trough skies are partly cloudy with cirrus also streaming overhead, resulting in limited insolation but combined with south southwesterly flow to promote modest diurnal warming. As the 500 MB trough approaches the region this afternoon, instability will increase to extreme levels over northeastern Kansas where more clearing has occurred, and explosive convection is anticipated in that area. The storms will then propagate and expand northeastward ahead of the trough. Forecast soundings in our area, especially central to southwestern areas, depict very strong instability with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/KG by late afternoon/early evening, along with strong shear as even 0-500 meter SRH values exceed 200 m2/s2. This environment will support supercells with all severe weather hazards possible including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, satellite imagery indicates low-level cloud cover is steady to increasing across much of our area and even into northwest Missouri, and it remains to be seen how much clearing will occur. Short-range mesoanalysis reflects this potential for limited insolation with 0-3 KM CAPE values less than 50 J/KG through the afternoon. This would limit near-surface stretching and may somewhat mitigate tornado potential in much of our area. That being said, if any clearing does reach our area then 0-3 KM CAPE and surface stretching would increase rapidly, supporting a heightened tornado threat. At this time it appears this potential is highest in our southwestern counties and gradually diminishing to the north and east, however, these trends will be closely monitored as the day/evening progresses. Even if tornadoes are limited in our area, elevated supercells progressing into southern and central Iowa this evening would still be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts, and the SPC has maintained an Enhanced severe weather risk across much of our area accordingly. Once the initial round of thunderstorms, forced by the 500 MB trough, exits our eastern/southeastern counties around midnight or so, some elevated showers/thunderstorms will linger overnight but be weaker with more limited forcing and instability, and a rapidly decreasing severe weather threat later tonight. The aforementioned cold front will be exiting our southeastern counties by early Tuesday morning, with any lingering elevated showers or thunderstorms also moving off during the morning. Behind the boundary, northwest winds will surge and bring notably cooler weather across the area. Daytime highs Tuesday will be about 15 degrees lower than today. Meanwhile, gusty northwest winds spreading in behind the front late tonight will continue through Tuesday morning as moderate cold air advection, surface pressure rises, and a relatively tight pressure gradient work through Iowa. Even then, wind potential is limited by the shallow nature of the mixed layer, with forecast soundings indicating top of the ML winds around 25-30 KT during that time. Winds will then slowly diminish during the afternoon as the tighter pressure gradient moves eastward and cold air advection moderates. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 By Tuesday evening a large surface high pressure area will be building down the northern High Plains and on Tuesday night will settle across Iowa and Minnesota. This will lead to rapidly diminishing winds around sunset Tuesday and much cooler temperatures Tuesday night as winds go light or calm and skies clear out, especially near the Minnesota border closer to the center of the high and where chances for high cirrus clouds are lowest. The result is forecast low temperatures early Wednesday morning in the mid-to- upper 30s in our northern and western counties, but any frost potential will be dependent on skies remaining clear and winds becoming calm. This possibility will be better assessed tonight and tomorrow. From Wednesday through the end of this week a weak 500 MB low will meander across southwestern Canada, with cyclonic flow extending down across the U.S. Rockies and near Iowa. A series of shortwave impulses moving through the flow will result in a return of rain chances for our forecast area. Initially, on Wednesday, the proximity of the slowly departing surface high pressure area and associated dry air will inhibit any precipitation chances. By Thursday atmospheric moisture and instability will be gradually increasing however, and around Thursday night and Friday the most pronounced 500 MB trough will move overhead and bring higher rain chances (50-70%). In wake of that trough, next weekend, weak subsidence may follow along with weak surface riding, supporting mostly dry weather and much lower rain chances (10-20%). Also of note is a consistent signal for some degree of thermal ridging around Sunday into early next week, especially from the EC and GEM, lending confidence to warmer temperatures at the end of the current 7-day forecast. Climate Prediction Center outlooks also support a likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures heading into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Mix of VFR to IFR conditions ongoing across the state early this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have begun moving into portions of western Iowa with some severe storms possible, especially in southern Iowa. Timing kept similar to previous though extended the thunderstorm threat slightly, but still expecting bulk of thunderstorm activity to be prior to 06Z with showers lingering thereafter into early Tuesday morning. CIGs drop to IFR behind the cold front late tonight into Tuesday morning with increasing winds out of the northwest behind the front as well.May see some visibility dips as showers/storms move through, including into early Tuesday with the lingering showers. Conditions turn back towards VFR by mid to late afternoon but the gusty northwest winds will remain through much of the daytime Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Trends in flash flood tools suggest an increased risk of flash flooding from activity this evening into tonight. NWM rapid onset flooding (ROF) probabilities suggest the greatest risk will be across our southwest CWA. Soil moisture in that area is elevated due to heavy rainfall over the past few days. Heavy rainfall tonight may lead to flash flooding due to decreased soil capacity, or sheer rainfall intensity, or both. Main concerns will be in towns, however lower areas including road dips near creeks and small streams may see some issues as well. In addition, any flooding will occur mainly during the nighttime hours, which adds to its potential danger. For these reasons, we issued a flood watch for some of our southern counties through Tuesday morning. Longer term, widespread river flooding is a minimal concern this week. Some moderate to significant within-bank rises are possible, however, especially in southern Iowa due to the combination of recent and potential future heavy rainfall. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for IAZ081>083-092>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lee LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...05/MB HYDROLOGY...Zogg  423 FXUS66 KOTX 182354 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 454 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily Northeastern WA and North Idaho Tuesday afternoon. - Chilly overnight temperatures will bring an isolated threat of morning frost Tuesday. This could impact sensitive plants or crops. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will continue Tuesday. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday and continuing through next weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight - Wednesday: The combination of afternoon heating and residual moisture will keep a threat for showers and thunderstorms this evening across Northeastern WA and North. Storm motion to the south and southeast does bring a small threat for a few cells to drift off the higher terrain and into the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane-Cd'A area. The depth of the convection is slowly shrinking at temperatures warm 2-3 Celsius at 500 mb so updrafts are largely growing to -25C versus -35C on Sunday. Ideally, this will result in less lighting strikes across the area. The strongest cells will be capable of brief downpours of rain/small hail and wind gusts around 30 mph. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer Tuesday morning but still cooling into the 30s to 40s. The threat for frost will be more localized. If you experienced temperatures in the low 30s and frost Monday morning, may want to consider taking actions to protect sensitive plants again. Given the complex terrain of our region, many observation platforms are not dipping to freezing given the placement of the sensor above ground but frost has been reported nearby, especially where there are low spots. The current frost forecast has a 20-25% chance for frost in the valleys of NE WA and N ID (down from 40-50% Monday). One change for tonight will be the potential for midlevel clouds moving through NE WA and N ID overnight which would support the idea of warmer temperatures. On Tuesday, temperatures continue to warm aloft for most areas away from far NE WA and N ID. This will equate to less shower activity region-wide and mainly fair cumulus build ups. Upper levels will be slower to warm over far NE WA and N ID. Locations like Ione, Porthill, and Bonners Ferry will maintain a 15-25% chance for showers and t-storms. High pressure begins to amplify along the coast Wednesday. Midlevel flow buckles from northwest to north over the INW. A cooler shortwave will drop down the eastern flank of the ridge and along the Northern Rockies. This will bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms back to the ID/MT border Wednesday afternoon. If the wave is a bit deeper and further west, the threat for convection may need to be expanded as far west as the ID/WA border. Breezy northerly winds will develop Wednesday night with this system with gusts of 20-30 mph for locations like Omak, Ephrata, and Wilbur. Thursday-Monday: There is moderate confidence for the upper-level ridge to build into the region Thursday and linger into Friday delivering a warming and drying trend. Details become a bit more uncertain over the weekend and early next week when additional shortwaves begin swinging into the region from the Gulf of AK. There are many variations with timing and strength of these systems. Any systems will need to be monitored closely for potential showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds, especially if there is a quick exchange of air masses. Ensemble means are hinting wind gusts around 30 mph right now across the Basin and Spokane Area with a handful of members in the 40-45 mph range. Monday is the windiest day at this time. /sb && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail. Shower activity will continue in northeast WA and north ID through 9-12z Tuesday. The main risk for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW to be impacted by a shower is between 00-03z (15-30% chance). Main risk will be gusty N-NW outflows around 20-30 kt. More rounds of showers are expected in far northeast WA and north ID are expected Tuesday afternoon with similar hazards. Chances look lower for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE around 10% Tuesday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence in thunderstorms impacting KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 41 68 44 71 43 72 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 41 66 44 68 43 70 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 39 64 42 66 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 43 70 46 72 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 36 70 40 74 38 75 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 40 65 43 67 41 70 / 20 10 10 10 0 0 Kellogg 39 65 43 67 42 70 / 20 10 0 10 30 0 Moses Lake 41 74 45 78 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 48 73 50 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 43 74 47 77 48 78 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  537 FXUS63 KEAX 182355 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 655 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Significant threat for severe weather across NW Missouri this evening with destructive hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. This threat will transition to a damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes as scattered storms develop into a line and build southeast. * Substantial flood threat tonight across the region with rainfall rates expected to exceed 2"/hr. Flood watch in effect tonight into Tuesday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 1.5-3+" with pockets exceeding 5". * Cooler and drier conditions develop on Tuesday and continue into Wednesday. * Rainfall chances return to the region Thursday through the end of the weeekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Mature trailing stratiform MCS worked through the area overnight leading to a widespread 1-2 inches of rain across the region. Saw MCS backbuild across central Missouri through the late morning, keeping temperatures quite cool through mid-day. Have seen signs of gravity waves emanating from the tail end of the the MCS, spreading to the north-northwest. Have started to see some partial-rapid clearing across eastern KS into western Missouri leading to nice warming- roughly west of I-35. Pseudo warm front/outflow boundary is poised just south of the forecast area across central Missouri. This boundary may try to lift north through the late afternoon hours. If that occurs, could see an isolated storms develop south of a line from Butler through Clinton leading to large hail/gusty winds. Expect surface temperatures to continue to warm through the afternoon hours into the upper 70s to 80s, leading to rapidly increasing instability. By late this afternoon, expect moderate to extreme instability with SB CAPE values of 4000-5000 J/kg roughly along and west of the I-35 corridor. Surface low pressure centered near Salina KS is expected to lift northeast this afternoon to southwest Iowa into the evening. Discreet supercells have already begun developing across central into northern KS, building east in time in what is a very volatile environment. 0-6 km shear is in the 40-50 knot range across eastern KS should easily support supercells, with the potential for very large hail and tornadoes. Expect supercells to remain discreet building into Northwest Missouri in the early evening hours, capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds and the potential for strong tornadoes. As the severe weather event evolves, expect the supercells to evolve into a squalline and build southeast in time. Expect severe threat to transition towards damaging winds, but could still see QLCS tornadoes with embedded supercells along the line. Training storms, along with precipitable water values of nearly two inches and deep warm cloud depths will lead to efficient rainfall. CAMs have been fairly consistent with another 1.5-3+" of rainfall across the region tonight, with pockets of 5+". HREF and REFs probabilities for 2"/hr rainfall rates are approaching 50%. Flash flood guidance across the area is low with the recent rains, generally running from 1-2.5"/6 hour period. Collaborated with WPC and surrounding offices to raise excessive rainfall outlook to moderate across most of the area. Cams suggest storms may linger Tuesday morning as the surface boundary moves slowly through the area. Have extended the flood watch through 18Z south of the Missouri River. Much cooler conditions are expected midweek behind the front with high in the 60s and lows in the 40s. A developing trough late week across the Northern Plains could bring additional instability showers and storms to the region as early as Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 SE winds will continue with gusts up to 30 mph through the early evening hours, then winds shift SW between 01z-03z and remaining gusty. A line of severe thunderstorms will impact STJ between 01z-03z tonight, moving through the KC metro terminals likely between 02z-05z tonight. Severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the severe thunderstorm line, with periods of moderate to heavy rain reducing visibility significantly. Stratiform rain with isolated lightning strikes will linger behind the main convective line into early tomorrow morning. There is a potential (30-50%) terminals will see reduced visibility around 4SM and BR between 10z-14z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for MOZ020>022-028>033- 037>040-043>046-053-054. Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MOZ001>007-011>016-023- 024. KS...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...WFO EAX  608 FXUS63 KIND 182357 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 757 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon and evening with damaging winds the primary threat - Heavy rain and some flooding are possible into the evening and again Tuesday - Highs in the 80s Tuesday - Storms will end Wednesday as the front shifts south, but unsettled weather likely returns late this week into the holiday weekend && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1244 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Thunderstorms are developing along the Indiana Illinois state line. These storms have been loosely organized so far, but an outflow boundary from convection further upstream is impinging from the west. This outflow boundary may allow storms to consolidate into a more coherent line as they progress deeper into Indiana. A recent sounding from Purdue University shows modest lapse rates between 6-7 C/Km, with a moist profile to about 500 mb. Additionally, modest shear is also present (20-25 knots) with messy hodographs centered around the mean storm motion. As such, little in the way of storm relative upper-level outflow appears likely...storms should behave more like single cells to multicell clusters until they become influenced by the outflow boundary or their own outflow. Once storms consolidate on the outflow boundary, they should still be relatively 'pulsey' in nature but more organized than in the open warm sector. The primary threat today appears to be strong wind gusts, as enough moisture loading within mature updrafts is possible for wet microbursts. Additionally, cold pool dynamics such as rear- inflow jet surges are also possible which may produce strong to damaging wind gusts. Given a mean shear vector towards the northeast, cold pools that orient in a NW to SE direction pose the greatest threat for severe wind gusts. Hail is possible but given only modest lapse rates, high moisture content, and the lack of long straight hodographs it does not appear to be all that likely. Tornado potential also appears low, given the outflow dominant nature of storms today. A brief QLCS spin up cannot be ruled out, however. Another threat, likely replacing wind as the primary hazard later this evening, is the potential for flooding and flash flooding. High- resolution guidance shows the cold pool settling in a SW to NE fashion across central Indiana. This may allow for repeated rounds of storms into tonight. As mentioned above, moisture content in the profile is high and freezing levels are near 15,000 feet. With a warm cloud layer over 10,000 feet in thickness, warm rain processes should lead to efficient rainfall production today. As such, various CAMs are showing pockets of very heavy rainfall totals between 3 to 5 inches. HREF ensemble mean shows a large area of 1 to 2 inches. Because of this potential, a Flood Watch has been issued for for western portions of the area. As cold pools become more defined, this may need to be trimmed or expanded. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight... Please see the latest Mesoscale Discussion section for details on the current convective situation. Thunderstorms will continue to move east this afternoon, with faster movement across the northern forecast area. To the south, the cold pool is having a harder time moving south, and showers and storms continue to develop as the low level jet impinges upon it. Later this afternoon into early evening, some additional upper energy will produce additional showers and thunderstorms. Will continue high PoPs this afternoon into early evening, especially southwest where the regeneration of storms will continue along the cold pool boundary. This regeneration of showers and storms in the southwest may lead to flooding, so will continue the Flood Watch. May have to adjust the location of the watch if the area of regeneration shifts. The main threat for severe will be out ahead of the initial line of storms into the afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary threat. Coverage of rain will diminish this evening into the overnight as most forcing exits. However, some weak upper energy may keep the threat for a few showers around northwest. Went cooler than guidance for lows given the rain cooled air. Tuesday... Uncertainty remains on how convection will develop on Tuesday with the surface cold front moving in. There may be cloud cover in the morning from upstream convection which would help limit instability. Some CAMs limit coverage to the southeast forecast area, while larger scale models bring rain to all areas Tuesday into Tuesday night. Given the strength of the front and the plentiful moisture, went likely PoPs all areas at some point Tuesday afternoon and evening. The severe threat will depend on how well the instability is able to build. Damaging winds will be the primary severe threat. Given today's rainfall and the plentiful moisture Tuesday, heavy rain and flooding will remain a threat for Tuesday as well. Highs on Tuesday could reach the middle and upper 80s if morning clouds are thin enough and rain holds off long enough. Wednesday and Thursday... Some rain may linger Wednesday morning in the south, so kept some low PoPs there. There remains some uncertainty on how far south the front will then settle and thus how fast it returns north. GFS seems aggressive with returning rain on Thursday, so will keep most of the area dry through the daytime Thursday. Rain chances begin to spread north Thursday night. Much cooler air will return for this period with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 and lows in the middle 40s to lower 50s. Friday through Memorial Day... A northern stream upper trough will move into the central USA while a southern stream smaller upper wave moves into the area. These will help bring the surface front northward back into the area into Saturday. Decent moisture will move back north with it, so will have likely or higher PoPs Friday into Friday night. Upper energy may interact with the lingering front to produce some rain on Saturday, so will keep PoPs around. A couple of upper troughs will bring more rain chances Sunday into Memorial Day. There remains some decent uncertainty on timing and strength, so will broadbrush PoPs and keep them under the likely category until uncertainty improves. With the surface front having lifted north, warmer air will return, with perhaps 80s again by the latter half of the holiday weekend. However, confidence isn't high in these given the uncertainty in rain coverage Sunday into Memorial Day. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 757 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Impacts: - Showers at times into tonight - Peak wind gusts Tuesday afternoon at 25 to 30kts - Showers and strorms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening Discussion: Rain and thunderstorms have decreased in intensity across central Indiana. However, lingering showers are expected to be present to some extent through about 06z. Brief reductions in visibility are possible with shower activity. Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Tuesday afternoon, but uncertainty is a bit higher than usual since this activity is due to storms currently far to our west over Kansas. How they evolve will determine timing and likelihood of rain tomorrow over central Indiana. Southwesterly flow continues with marginal LLWS possible (30-35kt). Shear decreases after sunrise Tuesday with surface winds out of the SW picking up to between 10-20kt gusting 25-30kt at times. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for INZ043>047-051>055- 060>063-067. && $$ AVIATION...Eckhoff DISCUSSION...50  580 FXUS63 KLOT 182357 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 657 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A period of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected after midnight tonight through early Tuesday morning, some of which could be locally strong, mainly west of I-55. - Additional thunderstorms may redevelop Tuesday afternoon, mainly east of I-55, some of which could be strong to severe. - Summer-like warmth and breezy winds will prevail through Tuesday, then cooler temperatures and dry conditions will return for the middle of the week. - Milder weather returns heading into the weekend with intermittent shower/thunderstorm potential. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Through Tonight... Convection and associated MCV responsible for this morning's severe weather has moved into Lower Michigan. Air mass in the wake of this wave is substantially more stable and combined with modest height rises in its wake should prevent any renewed convective development this afternoon or evening. Severe convection currently developing over the central Plains is likely to congeal into a large QLCS that will move toward the mid-Mississippi Valley tonight. Most intense convection is likely to focus farther southwest across Missouri, likely intercepting the low level jet and orphaning the convection farther north across Iowa. This should result in convection over Iowa diminishing as it moves eastward into northern IL with some guidance suggesting very little shower activity would actually make it into our CWA. Have reflected this trend in pop grids, but opted to maintain at least chance pops given the inherent uncertainties in forecasting convective evolution. Pressure field is recovering in the wake of the morning convection which has allowed winds to pick and become rather gusty from the southwest. Gustiness of the winds will generally tend to abate by sunset, except perhaps remaining somewhat gusty tonight in the urban heat island of Chicago. -Izzi Tuesday... Convectively induced vorticity maximum will slide through northeast Illinois into early Tuesday, well outpacing the cold front, and therefore we may have some showers hanging on into the area, but confidence is medium-high that thunderstorm coverage will be on the lower side. Any lingering MCS cold pool footprint and residual cloudiness will likely delay destabilization into midday Tuesday, though additional storm development appears somewhat probable across the southeast half of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening as the cold front finally pushes through the forecast area. Southwesterly flow ahead of the front will maintain mid to possibly upper 60s dewpoints and support MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/Kg. Stronger mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the Model guidance would support some additional vorticity maximum riding along the front, and flow to the southeast of the mid level trough across the northern Great Lakes will likely support enough storm development and some organization for a hail/wind threat during this time. This would be favored along and southeast of I-55, with short term ensemble guidance suggesting the window for much of NE IL and NW IN being fairly limited in the mid to late afternoon. For the Chicago metro area the picture is also a bit muddled for precipitation chances. High res guidance is mostly dry for the area, whereas global guidance and NAM/RAP does bring some shower activity across Chicagoland along the front in the early afternoon. KMD Wednesday onward... Following the cold front, surface high pressure is progged to build east into the western Great Lakes region Wednesday and Thursday. Dry, but breezy and cooler weather is expected both days, with temps mainly in the 60s, but only in the 50s near Lake Michigan with northeast-east flow off the lake. Nighttime lows in the 40s are expected. The high then drifts off to the east Thursday night, with the upper level pattern favoring a series of mid-level disturbances tracking through the area Friday into the weekend. This will support milder temperatures, but also some occasional shower/thunderstorm chances into the holiday weekend. Ratzer && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Key aviation forecast messages: - Decaying line of SHRA/TSRA may move through overnight into early Tuesday AM (>30% chance). - Breezy SSW winds turn W Tuesday AM then NW by the evening. Made some timing adjustments to the overnight showers and thunderstorm potential based on latest model guidance and upstream storm evolution. Main change was to speed up the PROB30 start time by a couple hours for all sites, now 6Z RFD, 7Z DPA, 8Z ORD/MDW, and 9Z GYY. This is mainly tied to the line of storms currently racing east across southern Iowa toward the area. There remains a weak signal for isolated thunderstorms developing ahead of this feature between roughly ~4-8Z, however, confidence in this occurring remains low owing to only very subtle forcing mechanisms for lift within the increasing elevated instability (<30% chance). The potential for thunder is locally highest toward RFD where TSRA has been maintained in the PROB30. Can't rule out TS as far east as the Chicago terminals but the line will likely be decaying even further with eastward extent. A second round of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the afternoon on Tuesday but this activity should remain southeast of the terminals in areas mainly east of I-55 and south of I-80. Wind gusts this evening may subside briefly with sunset but are expected to remain at least sporadically gusty through the rest of the overnight hours around 20-25 kt out of the SSW. Winds then trend westerly behind the early AM showers and then northwest late afternoon/early evening. A period of MVFR CIGs are possible in the wake of the AM showers/storms and associated cold front into the afternoon. Highest coverage is favored out toward RFD and they may expand east into the metro toward midday, though confidence is not high enough to include in the Chicago TAFs with this update. Petr && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  600 FXUS64 KCRP 182357 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 657 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Dangerous swimming conditions with a high risk of rip currents along the Middle Texas Coast through this week - Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning - Marginal Risk of (level 1 of 4) Flash Flooding due excessive rainfall from Tuesday night through Saturday morning with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) Thursday for the northern Coastal Plains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 After several dry days since our last rain event, a wetter pattern will begin tomorrow night and continue through the end of the week. A series of repeating mid-level shortwaves will pass over South Texas through this week as a more potent trough or cutoff mid-level low develops over northern Mexico and moves eastward into Texas. Near climatological max moisture in combination of these disturbances, will promote showers and thunderstorms daily with the potential for heavy rainfall. While things could still change, the most likely scenario will be for 2-3" across the Brush Country and northern Coastal Plains and 1-2" across the the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. High end rainfall totals (10% chance of reaching these values) will be 4-5" across the Brush Country and northern Coastal Plains and 3-4" across the the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Therefore, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas for a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Flash Flooding from Tuesday night through Saturday morning with a Slight Risk (level 2 or 4) for the Coastal Plains Thursday. Apart from that, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms Tuesday night with the primary hazards being strong winds and secondary hazard of large hail. Persistent strong onshore flow with swell periods of 7-8 seconds warrants a high risk of rip currents, causing dangerous swimming conditions. These conditions will also lead to another threat for minor coastal flooding early tomorrow morning during high tide. We'll need to keep a close eye on webcams with how much wave runup we get, but confidence is low with the lack of buoy observations. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR ceilings have pushed there way into the Coastal Plains this evening, already impacting CRP/ALI/VCT. These ceilings will continue to spread westward through the overnight into morning hours. There is a low to medium chance for occasional IFR ceilings. Light showers lingering from storms originating in Mexico are dissipating as they make it into the Brush Country, enough to mention VCSH and TEMPO over LRD. I've added PROB30s for CRP/ALI/VCT for when these spotty showers could extend and make it later tonight. Southeasterly winds will be sustained 10-15 knots tonight, increasing through the day tomorrow at a sustained 14-20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A fresh breeze (BF 5) is expected to continue through Tuesday morning which will cause a continuation of our current Small Craft Advisory. Winds will relax to a moderate breeze (BF 4) Tuesday morning and continue through the end of the work week. Medium chances (50-60%) for shower and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night through Friday night before increasing to higher chances (60- 80%) Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 90 79 89 / 20 10 60 30 Victoria 77 91 75 88 / 10 10 60 50 Laredo 79 99 76 94 / 20 10 60 40 Alice 79 94 77 91 / 20 10 60 30 Rockport 80 90 79 89 / 20 0 60 30 Cotulla 78 97 74 91 / 20 0 60 50 Kingsville 80 92 78 90 / 20 10 60 30 Navy Corpus 81 87 80 87 / 10 10 60 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCP/84 AVIATION...EMF/94  582 FXUS64 KMAF 182357 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 657 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 645 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through Tuesday. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during this time frame. - Critical fire weather conditions expected for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. - Rain and storm chances increase (40-80% chances) by the middle to latter part of the week. We will be monitoring a few strong to severe storms each day. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns over locations east of the Pecos River Wednesday into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 One more day of hot and dry weather with only a stray (10% to 15%) chance of showers/storms, before a cooling trend and increased chance of showers/storms beginning tomorrow. As the dryline that retrograded as far west as the Big Bend into Upper Trans Pecos and Lea County this morning surges east, strong southwest winds will redevelop. These winds will be aided by increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of a deepening trough over the Intermountain West, and along with keeping critical fire weather concerns over SE NM and parts of W TX (see Fire Weather Discussion), the stronger west/southwest downsloping winds will allow highs to rise a few degrees higher than yesterday into the 90s F, mid 80s F higher elevations, triple digits over central and northeast portions of the area as well as along the Rio Grande, and 105F to 110F readings once more for the Big Bend. Highest chance for a stray shower/storm will be over the northern Permian Basin this evening. Tonight, the dryline again retrogrades into central portions of the area. Accompanied increased boundary layer moisture will again limit overnight cooling and keep lows in the upper 60s F to mid 70s F east of the dryline, while drier air west of the dryline keeps lows in the 50s to lower 60s F. Low to medium (25% to 40%) rain chances develop late evening into early morning Tuesday as disturbances within mid to upper flow aloft and a backdoor cold front developing in from the northeast provide lift and focusing of moisture for shower/storm development. No widespread severe risk is anticipated into the morning. Tuesday will be a different story. With more disturbances developing northeast from the northern MX plateau into the Western Rolling Plains through the day, quickly renewed southeast upslope flow, and the dryline anchoring over east-central parts of the Permian Basin into Big Bend near the stalling cold front, lift and focusing of moisture both at the surface and aloft will be present for shower/storm development. Unlike tonight, severe weather will be possible tomorrow. SPC has eastern parts of the Permian Basin into Terrell County outlooked in a SLGT risk, with a MRGL risk over the the rest of the Permian Basin into the Upper Trans Pecos Big Bend. Storm coverage through the evening is expected to remain scattered with medium (35% to 50%) rain chances over easternmost regions and low (20% to 35%) farther west, unless storms can consolidate into a more numerous clusters or linear segments. Stronger storms have the potential to produce large hail up to 2" in diameter, damaging winds (especially if storm mode becomes more linear), and heavy rainfall. With strong directional shear from backed easterly winds, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out in the most rapidly intensifying severe storms, especially from Terrell County in to the southeast Permian Basin. Rainfall of 0.25" to 0.50" over easternmost parts of the Permian Basin with amounts up to 1.00" may pose flooding concerns for low-lying and poor drainage areas. With increased clouds and rain chances over central and eastern parts of the area along with "cooler" humid upslope flow, highs largely in the mid 80s to mid 90s F are forecast, with triple digits confined to the Rio Grande. These cooler daytime temperatures will allow lows to drop into the 50s to lower 60s F for much of the area tomorrow night, while intermittent disturbances aloft maintain low (20% to 30%) shower/storm chances over northern and eastern parts of the area. Even cooler temperatures and higher shower/storm chances with continued severe weather risk continue into the end of the week. Read the Long Term Discussion for more details. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Southwesterly flow aloft will remain prevalent over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an upper- level trough over the western CONUS. A diffuse boundary will extend from the eastern New Mexico to the Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Ascent will increase over much of our area as a series of shortwave impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft moves over the diffuse surface boundary Wednesday into Thursday. An easterly to southeasterly surface flow pattern will allow low level moisture to increase with dewpoints back into the 50s and 60s over most locations along and east of the mountains. We are still expecting increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with the best rain/storm chances over locations along and east of the mountains. Increasing deep layer moisture and associated precipitable water values up to 1 to 1.4 inches will bring potential for locally heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns east of the Pecos River late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Instability may be sufficient to bring at least a Marginal severe risk to portions of our area Wednesday and Thursday. Weak shortwave ridging aloft may build over the area by Friday bringing lower rain chances Friday afternoon and evening. There will still be enough moisture and instability along the lingering boundary to maintain low (10-20%) POPs on Friday. An upper-level trough or low may pivot over the forecast area this weekend with sufficient moisture remaining in place to keep a mention of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will trend cooler Wednesday through the weekend behind the front and with the increased rain chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds diminish except for FST and MAF due to a low-level jet developing over these sites. A cold front arrives in the region Tuesday morning shifting winds to the north and northwest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Well above normal temperatures, exceedingly dry conditions (both a lack of rainfall and critically low min RHs), and breezy winds will keep critical fire weather conditions in place across southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the northwest Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico Plains, and the Guadalupe Mountains through the early evening hours. Beyond today, critically low relative humidities return on Tuesday, but winds will be much lighter. The nearby dryline sharpens on Wednesday and is forced back towards the western edge of the CWA bringing strong moisture return and a chance for wetting rains for Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring70 90 60 78 / 0 40 20 60 Carlsbad 63 94 60 84 / 0 0 30 60 Dryden 72 96 67 87 / 0 20 20 40 Fort Stockton 66 97 64 87 / 0 10 0 60 Guadalupe Pass 60 85 59 80 / 0 0 10 50 Hobbs 58 90 56 75 / 0 0 30 80 Marfa 53 92 53 87 / 0 0 0 30 Midland Intl Airport 69 93 61 78 / 0 10 10 70 Odessa 68 93 62 79 / 0 10 10 70 Wink 62 95 62 83 / 0 0 10 60 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler. NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...11  650 FXUS61 KPBZ 182358 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 758 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... On the whole, the forecast remains unchanged, except for higher confidence in an 8p to 2a arrival of storms in northwest PA and eastern Ohio Tuesday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Heat impacts for sensitive populations continue early this week, with temperatures up to the upper-80s to low-90s. 2) Conditional terrain/lake driven severe chances today, highest severe chances tomorrow evening for NW PA and east OH, and conditional severe threats Wednesday SE of Pittsburgh with departing front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The 12Z surface analysis has the 587dm height line draped across the area, which generally suggests that upper 80s are most likely for highs today. A non-BC model like the LREF and HREF, generally agree, with the 25th-75th percentile spreads narrow and generally between 86F and 90F. With high confidence in mostly clear skies for most today, its possible these deterministic high tend toward the higher end of the non-BC distribution. So this would generally mean temperatures near-90, with some 90s possible with urban and river-valley terrain influence. Some "cooler spots" into the low-to-mid 80s are favored for high terrain and north of I-80. Highs today will be within a few degrees of record highs for all climate sites. The HREF only alludes to temperatures dropping into the mid-to- upper 60s, which will provide little chance for temperature recovery overnight. This will challenge a few "max-low temperature" records. Mean heights may drop slightly Tuesday with the beginning of a ridge breakdown. Additionally, more mid- moisture will also allow for more cloud cover. All in all, temperatures may be a degree or two cooler in areas that do not see rain, but cumulative heat stress continues. So upper-80s, are again favored for most. The NWS heat risk shows mostly a moderate risk Monday into Tuesday, whereby heat may generally impact the most sensitive populations. Make sure to stay hydrated or monitor for signs of heat illness if spending excessive time outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 2... All of the area will be under the northern periphery of the ridge axis today, with corresponding subsidence enforcing mid- level capping. While diurnal cumulus are developing, as we continue to mix into a dry layer (evidenced on 12Z sounding from 750mb to 600mb), we expect most vertical development to be limited. There's a couple exceptions that will need to be addressed. First will be the high terrain. With ridge-top convergence in mostly NE flow aloft, we coudn't rule out a storm firing in an environment of 1000-1200 DCAPE, which could certainty carry a conditional downburst wind threat in the low probability this happens. Consistently, the highest chance of development has been eastern Tucker County, but with NW flow aloft, the thought would be that the highest risk would be to the east for the forecast area. The second area would be a conditional threat of storm development on a lake breeze this afternoon. This is lower confidence, but should it occur, the same downburst threat is possible, with outflow potentially carrying development into NW Pennsylvania. Both threats are conditional on development (<30% chance), but should development occur, damaging wind risks would increase substantially. A ridge breakdown begins Tuesday, with afternoon storm development in western Ohio likely. The most likely timing of this appears late- day. There's a bit of a conditional risk from 20Z to 00Z, but the current thought is that capping will be too strong to let the environment utilize the ~1500 to 2500 MUCAPE for "bubble-up" convection in NW PA in the afternoon. Later, some combination of outflow from the Ohio convection on a pre-frontal trough and/or a lake breeze will make convection more likely in the 00Z to 06Z window. Since this timing is mostly after sunset, storms are expected to have a decaying trend as they enter the area, but they certainty could be strong enough to produce wind gusts up to 60mph, most likely for the I-80 corridor with DCAPE of 900 to 1000, with threats also possible into eastern Ohio. Convective intensity is expected to wain overnight as the parent cold front moves in, but some isolated showers/storms remain possible. Wednesday will bring more of a conditional severe threat southeast of Pittsburgh, with the main uncertainty being 1) frontal timing and 2) cloud cover. In a scenario with a slower front and limited cloud cover, recovery of instability and a limited severe threat is possible for northern WV and far SW PA. But should the front be faster or clouds complicate instability generation, severe threats are lower. Severe chances taper over the next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid and upper level cloud cover will move into the region this evening from the convection that dissipates in Ohio. Expect mainly light and variable winds through the overnight. Some LLWS will also be possible at the terminals. By 14Z tomorrow, winds will be on the increase with gusts through the day up to 20 knots and evening some locations seeing some 30 knots gusts. Mid and upper level cloud cover will be increasing through the day. VFR conditions are anticipated but some terminals such as ZZV may see some restricted flight conditions by the end of the TAF period as the next round of convection will impact the region. Outlook... An upper shortwave and surface front will push a shower/thunderstorm axis east Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Initial restrictions will be tied to rainfall intensities with height falls not occurring until after frontal passage. High pressure and VFR returns by Thursday areawide before an active pattern feature multiple rain chances develops Friday into the weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Milcarek AVIATION...Shallenberger