510 

AXNT20 KNHC 162222

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2200 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front has entered the far NW

Gulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds 

and building seas follow the front, forecast to reach from near 

Tampa Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat 

morning, and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the 

eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be 

just SE of the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate. 

Strong gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected 

in the wake of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and 

over the southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale-

force are forecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat 

morning. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the 

lower Mississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting 

fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the 

Gulf likely through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast

issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers 

FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends SW

to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 05N45W to 05N54W. Scattered 

moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 11N between 30W-40W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



See details above about a Gulf of America Gale Warning.



An upper-level trough over the south-central US and a surface 

trough in the western Gulf are supporting numerous showers and 

thunderstorms across much of the interior Gulf. Another surface 

trough along the Mexican coast supports scattered moderate 

convection offshore Veracruz. A cold front has entered the far NW

Gulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds 

and building seas follow the front.



For the forecast, cold front is forecast to reach from near Tampa

Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat morning,

and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the eastern 

Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be just SE of

the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate. Strong gale 

force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake 

of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and over the 

southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale- force are 

forecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat morning. 

Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower 

Mississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting fresh 

to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf 

likely through Tue. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Upper-level diffluence over the NW Caribbean is supporting 

numerous moderate to strong convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the 

seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades 

through the basin, with strong easterly winds offshore Colombia 

and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas prevail across much of

the Caribbean, with rough seas offshore Colombia.



For the forecast, as a cold front moves across the Western 

Atlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient will relax

across the basin. Under this weather pattern, expect moderate to 

fresh winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela with 

moderate to locally rough seas near the coast of Colombia tonight 

and Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are 

forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms 

associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW 

Caribbean tonight. Moisture associated with this feature will 

merge with the cold front moving across the Gulf this weekend. The

front will likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel by 

Tue.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front extends from 31N45W to 28N50W, and then is 

stationary to 25N70W. Moderate to fresh SW winds, 7-9 ft combined 

seas in NW swell, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are 

active along the front east of 51W. To the south, a surface trough

is analyzed along 53W from 12N to 19N, with an upper level low 

nearby supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 

along 50W from 14N to 19N. To the northeast, a surface trough is 

analyzed from 27N37W to 20N39W with a 1011 mb low along the 

trough near 23N38W. These features are also driving fresh to 

strong SE winds E of the trough to about 30W and N of 20N. 

Diffluence aloft and east of this trough supports numerous showers

and thunderstorms from 17N to 27N between 25W and 35W. Elsewhere 

across the Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas are evident

across the basin.



For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure off the Carolinas 

will shift eastward ahead of a strong cold front that will move 

off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat morning. The front

will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun 

morning, and from near 31N71W to western Cuba by early Mon 

morning, then stall and dissipate through early next week. Strong 

to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow 

the front affecting mainly the waters W of 65W through Tue. 



$$

Adams/Landsea