380 

AXNT20 KNHC 241102

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1045 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Central Subtropical Atlantic (Invest-AL95): Scattered to numerous

moderate to isolated strong convection located a few hundred 

nautical miles southeast of Bermuda are roughly from 26N to 31N 

between 55W and 60W. This convection is associated with an area of

low pressure analyzed as a weak 1016 mb low near 29N62W. A trough

extends from the low to north of 31N62W and southwest from the 

low to near 28N64W. Further development of the low is possible, 

and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression or 

storm during the next couple of days while it moves northward and 

north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. This system has a 

medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours 

and through the next 7 days.



Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 

website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more 

details.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 40W south of 

19N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered 

moderate convection is from 07N to 14N between 33W and 42W.



A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W south of 

23N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection 

is to the northeast of the northern part of the wave from 21N to 

25N between 52W and 56W



A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W south of 21N moving

westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms

are from 16N to 18N between 69W and 71W. Isolated showers are 

elsewhere near the wave.



The earlier tropical wave that was along 90W has moved well west 

of the Caribbean into the eastern Pacific. Please see the TWDEP

for details on this wave.



Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west 

coast of Africa later today, and an area of low pressure could 

form in association with the wave early this week. Environmental 

conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for 

development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to

latter portions of the week while the system moves generally 

westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This 

system has a medium chance for tropical formation in 7 days.

 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 

Africa near 15N16W and continues west-soutwhestward to 12N28W to 

09N36W to 06N43w and to 07N50W, where it transitions to the 

ITCZ to 09N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the 

tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection

is within 120 nm north of the trough between 42W and 47W. Numerous

moderate isolated strong ahead of the next tropical wave is 

present from 07N to 16N between 15W and 22W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



Weak surface ridging that is anchored by a 1017 mb high center 

located near 26N86W is generally allowing for anticyclonic light 

to gentle winds across the basin. Seas of slight state remain 

over the basin per overnight buoy observations and satellite 

altimeter data passes.



Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are confined to

southwest of a line from near Veracruz to 19N91.5W. Isolated 

showers and thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf north of 28N 

between 87W and 88W, and over some sections of the central Gulf.



For the forecast, the weak high pressure will remain centered 

over central Gulf through through Wed, with the western Atlantic 

ridge building westward into the basin thereafter. This will 

maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas through 

the week. A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north

and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through 

the period. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western

Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America

continues to allow for fresh to strong trades primarily over the 

south- central Caribbean. Seas up to 6 ft are with these trades 

as indicated by overnight satellite altimeter data. Moderate to 

fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except over the 

northwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N, where light to 

gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are present. 



Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring 

from 10N to 14N west of 81.5W to inland the coast of Nicaragua 

near 85W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen 

south of 14N between 75W and 78W. Scattered showers and 

thunderstorms are over the Windward Passage and waters, reaching 

to near the eastern tip of Cuba.



For the forecast, the previously mentioned pressure gradient 

will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant 

rough seas over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere,

mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, 

aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the northwest

part of the basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week 

following passages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves 

that will quickly move west across the basin. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on

low pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical 

cyclone formation.



A trough extends from near 31N78W southwestward to near Palm 

Beach, Florida. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are 

along the trough north of about 28N while isolated showers and 

thunderstorms are near the trough south of 28N. A 1019 mb high 

center located near 30N68W basically controls the general wind 

flow pattern over the western half of the basin. To the east, a 

large area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N to 

26N between 52W and 57W, and also from 25N to 31N between 48W and

51W. 



Moderate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 20N north of the 

monsoon trough between the Cabo Verde Islands and 42W, and in a 

belt from there to near the low pressure area, Invest-AL95. Winds

are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Seas 

are of slight state north of about 20N and west of 60W, and of 

moderate state over the remainder of the basin.



For the forecast west of 55W, regarding the aforementioned low, 

(Invest- AL95), further development of the low is possible, and 

this system could become a short-lived tropical depression or 

storm during the next couple of days while it moves northward and 

north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. The fresh to 

strong southerly winds will slowly diminish through early early 

Tue. Elsewhere, high pressure will maintain mainly gentle winds N 

of 23N through the period, with moderate to fresh trades to the 

south, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern

extent of tropical waves most westward across the far southern 

waters this week. 



$$

Aguirre