819 

AXNT20 KNHC 190810

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Tue May 19 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0355 UTC.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 11N and 

moving westward at 5 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough 

axis.



A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 14N and 

moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated 

thunderstorms are seen across NE South America and nearby waters.



A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 16N and

moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are present near the

trough axis.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of the 

Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then runs southwestward to 06N18W. The

ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 05N22W and then from 05N24W to 00N50W.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong is evident south of 08N and

east of 15W and south of 06N and between 23W and 33W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the

Gulf waters forcing fresh to strong E-SE winds and moderate seas

west of a line from southern Louisiana to NE Yucatan and also in

the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and

slight to moderate seas prevail. Generally dry weather conditions

dominate the basin, except for some showers reaching the nearshore

waters of Tamaulipas and Veracruz.



For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend

a ridge over and just north of the Gulf through the week. Expect

moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week

between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Fresh

to strong winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula

during the evenings through mid-week. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Favorable divergence aloft combines with tropical moisture and

diurnal heating to produce scattered showers and isolated

thunderstorms across portions of Cuba, Hispaniola and nearby

waters along their southern coasts. A 1030 mb high pressure system

to the north of the islands supports fresh to near gale-force

easterly trade winds and seas of 6-10 ft across the central

Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong

easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of

Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and and moderate winds

are found in the eastern Caribbean and Windward Passage.

Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas

prevail.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure

north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support 

fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf 

of Honduras through Wed, with moderate to fresh trades across the 

remainder of the forecast waters. Rough seas can be expected in 

the central Caribbean during this time. Large E swell resulting in

rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into Tue 

night, then begin to subside. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A couple of surface trough and divergence aloft supports scattered

showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 69W. High pressure to

the north forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate

seas off northern Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly winds 

and seas of 5-8 ft are evident west of 55W and south of 28N.



The central and eastern tropical Atlantic are under the influence

of a broad subtropical ridge that supports fresh to strong

northerly winds north of 17N and east of 23W. Moderate to fresh

easterly breezes and moderate to rough seas are present south of

24N and west of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and

moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the

central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds N of Hispaniola 

overnight. A surface trough from S of Bermuda to around 29N73W 

will dissipate overnight, leaving tranquil marine conditions in 

place through midweek. 



$$

Delgado