831 

ABPW10 PGTW 160600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZOCT2026//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160151ZOCT2026//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 16OCT26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 29W (CHAMPI) WAS LOCATED NEAR

11.3N 154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF NAVSTA GUAM, AND

HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS.

SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 160300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

9.0S 163.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 163.6W, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST

OF SWAINS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A

151128Z 89 GHZ AMSR3 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY OBSCURED LOWER-

LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER

THE CENTER AND PROMINENT FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF

92P. A 151126Z OSCAT PASS EMPHASIZES CONSOLIDATING CLOSED CIRCULATION

WITH ELEVATED (25-30KT) WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT

WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), AND

WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE

IN AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER

THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, ALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN

FAVOR OF 92P MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EXCEPTIONALLY COLD WATER PAST 72

HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL

FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//

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