799 

ABPW10 PGTW 150600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZOCT2026//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150151ZOCT2026//

REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150152ZOCT2026//

NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 15OCT26 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WAS

LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 140.6E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO

TO, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO

35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 150300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) AT 15OCT26 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WAS

LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 159.4E, APPROXIMATELY 883 NM EAST OF NAVSTA GUAM,

AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX

HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS

GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 150300) FOR FURTHER

DETAILS.

      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 27W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

41.5N 163.6E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

6.9S 164.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 164.7W, APPROXIMATELY 407 NM

EAST-NORTHEAST OF SWAINS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY AND A 142041Z 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY

OBSCURED LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP

CONVECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY. A 142003Z ASCAT PASS EMPHASIZES A

BROAD AND OPEN CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED (20-25KT) WINDS ALONG THE

WESTERN PERIPHERY, DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM FROM THE CENTER.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT

WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

(15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). THE CURRENT

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92P SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO A LOWER SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA

LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

IS MEDIUM.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//

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