356 

ABPW10 PGTW 240200

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/240200Z-240600ZAUG2026//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231951ZAUG2026//

REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231952ZAUG2026//

REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231953ZAUG2026//

REF/D/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZAUG2026//

NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF D IS A

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 23AUG26 1800Z, TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WAS LOCATED NEAR

23.2N 137.9E, APPROXIMATELY 584 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, AND

HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS GUSTING

TO 135 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 232100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) AT 23AUG26 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WAS LOCATED

NEAR 20.4N 107.8E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI,

VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS

GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 232100) FOR FURTHER

DETAILS.

      (3) AT 23AUG26 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WAS

LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 286 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF

YAP, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO

40 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPN33 PGTW 232100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.6N

119.2E, APPROXIMATELY 127 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI. ANIMATED

MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-

LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE

EAST-SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ANIMATED RADAR DATA

SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH MODERATE CONVECTIVE BANDS

WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION TO THE

SOUTHEAST NEAR THE WEST COAST OF TAIWAN. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM

ACROSS THE REGION DEPICT GENERALLY SOUTHERN WINDS OF 15-20KTS WITH

GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35KTS, PARTICULARLY FROM THE PENGHU ISLANDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT

WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES (27 TO 28 C), AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON A SHORT

WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 98W. GFS STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER

WATER FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEVELOPMENT,

WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE CIRCULATION OVER LAND MORE QUICKLY, DENYING

TIME FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP FURTHER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE

WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS

ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO

HIGH. SEE REF D (WTPN21 PGTW 240200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO

HIGH//

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