844 WTPN32 PGTW 162100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 010 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 29W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 11.9N 150.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 150.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 12.4N 147.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.0N 145.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 13.5N 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.2N 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.1N 138.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.1N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.2N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.2N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 149.6E. 16OCT26. TYPHOON 29W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161800Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.// NNNN  207 WDPN32 PGTW 162100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.9N 150.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 328 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY) 29W (CHAMPI) ASSESSED TO HAVE BEGUN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS IT ATTEMPTS TO FORM A PINHOLE EYE WITHIN THE COMPACT CORE. CONVECTION REMAINS EXPANSIVE TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD SYSTEM BEGINNING TO NEAR THE MARIANAS, WHILE THE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED AS FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DEVELOPING EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AS RI CONTINUES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 77 KTS AT 161540Z CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 161800Z CIMSS AIDT: 78 KTS AT 161800Z CIMSS D-MINT: 82 KTS AT 161617Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 75 KTS AT 161930Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST INTENSITY TO DEPICT AN INCREASE OF 15 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 0 TO 48 BASED ON RI FORECAST DISCUSSION: FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE RIDGING WILL REORIENT AROUND TAU 48 DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING 29W TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER, ANOTHER STR CENTERED OVER TAIWAN IS EXPECTED TO BUILD, RESULTING IN AN OVERALL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, TY 29W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE, WITH VWS DROPPING BELOW 10 KTS BY TAU 48 AS WELL AS MOVE INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER (120-150 KJ PER CM SQUARED) OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AN OVERALL PEAK OF 135 KTS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR A HIGHER PEAK. THE TIME OF CPA TO GUAM REMAINS CONSISTENT, ALTHOUGH THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW INCLUDES TINIAN AND SAIPAN FURTHER WITHIN THE EXPECTED GALE-FORCE WINDS BETWEEN TAUS 12 TO 48 DURING THE PASSAGE OF 29W SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH A 45 NM CROSS TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24 AS 29W CPAS GUAM. SPREAD EXPANDS TO 150 NM BY TAU 72 AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS. BY TAU 120, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS 200 NM AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS 150 NM. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OUT TO TAU 72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER, CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL AND AI CONSENSUS TRACKS THROUGHOUT. MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT OF A PERIOD OF RI OUT TO TAU 48 WITH A MAJORITY OF RI AIDS POPULATING. THE PREDICTED PEAK INTENSITIES OF HAFS-A AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND CONTINUE TO INCREASE, REACHING 160 KTS AND 140 KTS, RESPECTIVELY. THE OUTLIERS OF GFS AND NAVGEM BASED COAMPS-TC AND DECAY SHIPS PORTRAY A MUCH MORE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND PEAK OF AROUND 110 KTS. WHILE CONTINUED RI IS ASSESSED TO BE VERY LIKELY, THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ULTIMATE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, BUT PLACED IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOGLE DEEPMIND, ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EFFECT OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OUTLIERS THAT DO NOT PREDICT RI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN