168 WTPN33 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 008 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 16.1N 138.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 138.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 18.0N 138.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 19.9N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 21.5N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 138.2E. 24AUG26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 552 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  520 WTPN32 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 015 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 19.9N 107.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 107.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 19.6N 107.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 19.7N 108.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 20.5N 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 21.6N 109.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.7N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 107.3E. 24AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  405 WTPN31 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 024 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 24.5N 134.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 134.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 25.5N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 26.6N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 27.4N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 28.0N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 28.1N 125.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 27.8N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 27.0N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 26.1N 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 134.1E. 24AUG26. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  255 WDPN33 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.1N 138.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 552 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (ATSANI). THE LLCC PROPAGATED RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS, STEERED BY THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, IN TANDEM WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST - WHICH, IN TURN, SERVES AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TYPHOON 17W. ADDITIONALLY, THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE WITHIN THE BINARY INTERACTION DISTANCE THRESHOLD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CLEAR LLCC OBSERVED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C AND UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS BENEFIT FROM AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN, SEVERE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 30+ KTS LIMITS ANY INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE, WHILE TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRY-AIR INTRUSION IS INCREASING, DUE TO THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR MASS ENVELOPING AND CONSTRAINING THE CORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, AS NO NEW WIND SPEED DATA IS AVAILABLE, WHILE OBJECTIVE AIDS AND SUBJECTIVE AGENCY FIXES PRESENT A SLIGHTLY INCREASED VARIABILITY. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES DRIVEN BY SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH IS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TYPHOON 17W. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 240540Z CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 240610Z CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 240610Z CIMSS D-MINT: 32 KTS AT 240442Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 240610Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: PERSISTENT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 19W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWARD AND FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF TY 17W ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING ITS TERMINAL WEAKENING PHASE, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY HOSTILE VWS AND INCREASING DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT. AS SUCH, IT IS EXPECTED TO RETAIN 30 KTS INTENSITY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RETAIN SYMMETRY AND WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THESE DESTRUCTIVE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC IMPEDIMENTS WILL PERSIST, LEADING TO THE STEADY DECAY OF TD ATSANI. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DEPRESS TO 25 KTS BY TAU 24, CULMINATING IN COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER OPEN WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION SPREAD EXHIBITS HIGH TRACK CONSISTENCY, DEPICTING A TIGHT 90-NM CROSS-TRACK DISPERSION ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 36. ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY IS MODERATE, CONSTRAINED TO APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACKERS AND THE SLOWEST ECMWF AND UKMET GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK IS POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, OFFSETTING THE MUCH SLOWER AND TIGHTER-TURNING UKMET TRACKER. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS PROJECT TERMINAL WEAKENING, WITH DISSIPATION ESTIMATED BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36. WHILE PREVIOUS RUNS FROM COAMPS-TC RECENTLY ACTED AS OUTLIERS PROGNOSTICATING PEAK SPEEDS OF 50-55 KTS, CURRENT CONSENSUS MEMBERS HAVE FULLY REALIGNED WITH A STEADY WEAKENING SCENARIO, SECURING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DISSIPATION OUTLOOK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH// NNNN  057 WDPN31 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 24.5N 134.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 392 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYEWALL OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE EYE HAS WARMED TO 12 C. THIS STRUCTURE INDICATES THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) HAS LIKELY CONCLUDED WITH 17W SHOWING A MORE REGULAR APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DEFINED EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET CLOSER TO THE CIMSS ESTIMATES AND AGENCY DATA NUMBERS OF 5.5 RATHER THAN THE CI OF 6.0. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 17W REMAINS PLACED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN JAPAN SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POINT NORTHEAST OF GUAM. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 240600Z CIMSS AIDT: 106 KTS AT 240600Z CIMSS D-MINT: 101 KTS AT 240445Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 105 KTS AT 240600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, PASSING JUST NORTH OF OKINAWA AT AROUND TAU 36. NEAR TAU 38, 17W WILL APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH, CAUSING IT TO MARKEDLY SLOW AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER EASTERN CHINA. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE THE STEERING GRADIENT BECOMES STRONGER. AFTER TAU 72, THE SPEED OF ADVANCE OF 17W IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER CHINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 96. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 17W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12 HOURS BEFORE IT STARTS TO WEAKEN UNDER THE EFFECTS OF INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ADDITIONALLY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND FILL, REDUCING OUTFLOW ALOFT. AROUND TAU 72, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL GREATLY INCREASE, INDUCED BY THE STRONG RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA CAUSING A MORE RAPID RATE OF WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. AFTER LANDFALL, RUGGED TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE VORTEX TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF ONLY 50 NM. AFTER TAU 48, TWO OUTLIERS ARISE IN GFS AND GALWEM. THE GFS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY SHARPER TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHERN TAIWAN WHILE, GALWEM SHOWS NO SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AT ALL. DISCOUNTING THOSE TWO OUTLIERS, MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A TRAJECTORY SIMILAR TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO NOTABLE OUTLIERS PRESENT. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN  936 WDPN32 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.9N 107.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 103 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WITH VIGOROUS BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE VORTEX, CAUSING A SOUTHWESTWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT AND PREVENTING CONVECTION FROM BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 18W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 240215Z METOP-C ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 240610Z CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 240610Z CIMSS D-MINT: 43 KTS AT 240625Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 36 KTS AT 240710Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: SLIGHT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 18W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STR RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND THE NER TO THE SOUTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. AFTER TAU 24, 18W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD, USHERED BY THE NER BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. LANDFALL WITHIN SOUTHERN CHINA IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 48 NEAR THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA. REGARDING INTENSITY, 18W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AS THE SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE. AFTER TAU 12, EASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. AFTER LANDFALL, TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN THE VORTEX WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BY TAU 60. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MODEL RUN WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF ABOUT 70 NM AT TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO NOTABLE OUTLIERS PRESENT. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN  073 WDPN32 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.9N 107.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 103 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WITH VIGOROUS BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE VORTEX, CAUSING A SOUTHWESTWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT AND PREVENTING CONVECTION FROM BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 18W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 240215Z METOP-C ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 240610Z CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 240610Z CIMSS D-MINT: 43 KTS AT 240625Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 36 KTS AT 240710Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: SLIGHT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 18W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STR RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND THE NER TO THE SOUTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. AFTER TAU 24, 18W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD, USHERED BY THE NER BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. LANDFALL WITHIN SOUTHERN CHINA IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 48 NEAR THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA. REGARDING INTENSITY, 18W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AS THE SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE. AFTER TAU 12, EASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. AFTER LANDFALL, TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN THE VORTEX WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BY TAU 60. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MODEL RUN WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF ABOUT 70 NM AT TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO NOTABLE OUTLIERS PRESENT. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN