960 WTPA43 PHFO 240850 TCDCP3 Tropical Depression Moke Discussion Number 16 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 Proxy-visible satellite images of Moke show the low-level center remains exposed tonight. The depression has only produced small, intermittent bursts of convection over the northern part of its circulation during the past several hours. Although Moke is centered well to the south of the Hawaiian Islands, NWS radar data and surface observations indicate that heavy rain and gusty winds are spreading across portions of the Big Island of Hawaii and Maui. Based on earlier scatterometer data and given no recent improvements to the satellite presentation of Moke, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The depression is moving westward (275/11 kt) and should continue on this heading for the next couple of days while being steered by a strong low- to mid-level ridge to its north. No notable changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which keeps the center of Moke well south of the main Hawaiian Islands. Regardless, periods of heavy rain and gusty winds are expected across portions of the islands overnight through Monday. Moke may not remain a tropical cyclone for much longer if it is unable to generate more organized convection soon. Persistent southwesterly shear and the drier surrounding mid-level environment suggest this is unlikely to occur. Based on recent satellite trends and the latest global model wind fields and simulated satellite images, the updated NHC forecast now shows Moke becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 24 h and dissipating by 48 h. Note that this could occur even sooner than forecast. Key Messages: 1. Rain bands associated with Tropical Depression Moke will continue over the Big Island while spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Strong, gusty winds are likely as Moke passes south of the main Hawaiian Islands, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 15.3N 158.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 15.6N 160.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 16.1N 162.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1800Z 16.7N 165.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart  013 WTPZ44 KNHC 240851 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092026 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Iselle is being affected by northwesterly shear, with much of the deep convection displaced to the south and east of the center. Over the past several hours, the convective structure has evolved, with curved banding becoming increasingly established around the center. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB at 0600 UTC was 3.0/45 kt; however, recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have increased and range from 43-59 kt. Given the improved banding evident on satellite imagery and the upward trend in objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving northwestward around 10 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. Iselle is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest as the ridge expands westward into the eastern Pacific, and this general motion is expected through much of this week. The latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies near the middle of the track guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind (GDMI) model. There is considerable spread among the guidance during the latter portion of the forecast period, resulting in slightly below-average confidence in the track forecast. Iselle is moving over warm waters around 29-30 C and remains within a fairly moist mid-level environment, which should support gradual strengthening during the next 12-24 h. The latest NHC forecast brings Iselle to hurricane strength during this period, near the upper end of the intensity guidance, and is consistent with HCCA and GDM. Beyond 24 h, increasing wind shear, cooler waters and progressively drier mid-level air are expected to lead to gradual weakening from Tuesday through the remainder of the week. The ECMWF and GFS simulated satellite imagery suggest that Iselle may struggle to maintain organized convection by late this week, raising the possibility that the cyclone could become post-tropical earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 17.8N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 19.0N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 20.1N 118.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 20.9N 120.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 21.9N 124.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 22.4N 126.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 23.1N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 23.9N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Adams  070 WTPA42 PHFO 240852 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 48 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 The satellite presentation of Lala consists of a large curved band that wraps most of the way around the center of the storm. Infrared cloud top temperatures are as cold as -55C to -60C, which is fairly impressive given Lala's higher latitude over sub-26C waters. The subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates and the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have held steady tonight, and the initial intensity remains 55 kt. Data from an ASCAT-C pass is expected just after this advisory issuance but will be useful in reassessing the intensity and size of Lala for the next cycle. Lala is moving slowly north-northwestward (330/5 kt). Based on the storm's position near but just to the southwest of a strong ridge axis, a slow and generally northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next several days. The latest NHC forecast track shows Lala crossing the International Date Line between 72-96 h from now. There remains a fair amount of cross-track spread in the guidance at days 3-5, but only minimal adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast to bring it closer to the latest corrected consensus (HCCA). While Lala is predicted to move over gradually cooler waters in the coming days, the aforementioned ridge will keep the deep-layer shear relatively weak over the storm. Therefore, only slow weakening is anticipated during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the various intensity aids and is similar to the previous prediction. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite data suggest Lala will struggle to maintain organized convection between days 3-4, and the system appears likely to become post-tropical by 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 33.3N 174.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 33.8N 175.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 34.5N 176.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 35.1N 177.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 35.6N 177.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 36.1N 178.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 36.9N 179.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 38.3N 179.2E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0600Z 40.5N 177.0E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart  296 WTPA42 PHFO 240858 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 48 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 The satellite presentation of Lala consists of a large curved band that wraps most of the way around the center of the storm. Infrared cloud top temperatures are as cold as -55C to -60C, which is fairly impressive given Lala's higher latitude over sub-26C waters. The subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates and the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have held steady tonight, and the initial intensity remains 55 kt. Data from an ASCAT-C pass is expected just after this advisory issuance but will be useful in reassessing the intensity and size of Lala for the next cycle. Lala is moving slowly north-northwestward (330/5 kt). Based on the storm's position near but just to the southwest of a strong ridge axis, a slow and generally northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next several days. The latest NHC forecast track shows Lala crossing the International Date Line between 72-96 h from now. There remains a fair amount of cross-track spread in the guidance at days 3-5, but only minimal adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast to bring it closer to the latest corrected consensus (HCCA). While Lala is predicted to move over gradually cooler waters in the coming days, the aforementioned ridge will keep the deep-layer shear relatively weak over the storm. Therefore, only slow weakening is anticipated during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the various intensity aids and is similar to the previous prediction. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite data suggest Lala will struggle to maintain organized convection between days 3-4, and the system appears likely to become post-tropical by 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 33.3N 174.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 33.8N 175.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 34.5N 176.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 35.1N 177.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 35.6N 177.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 36.1N 178.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 36.9N 179.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 38.3N 179.2E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0600Z 40.5N 177.0E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart