668 WTPN31 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 023 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 23.9N 136.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 136.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 25.0N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 26.0N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 26.9N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 27.7N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 27.9N 125.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 27.6N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 26.9N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 25.9N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 135.6E. 24AUG26. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 487 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240000Z IS 944 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN 0000322800 00001  669 WTPN32 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 014 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 20.3N 107.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 107.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 19.9N 107.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.9N 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 20.4N 108.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.2N 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.1N 109.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 22.9N 109.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 107.6E. 24AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240000Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  741 WTPN33 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 007 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 15.2N 137.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 137.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 17.2N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.1N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 21.3N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.3N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 137.4E. 24AUG26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 346 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240000Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  700 WDPN31 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.9N 136.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 487 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS REDEVELOPMENT AND CLEARING OF AN EYE ONCE AGAIN, WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF VORTICAL HOT TOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE DOWNSHEAR QUADRANTS AND BEGINNING TO WRAP UPSHEAR. A 232243Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS, WHILE THE ANIMATED MIMIC-TC PRODUCT SUGGESTS THE ERC HAS FINALLY FINISHED, WITH THE INNER EYEWALL NOW APPROXIMATELY 20 PERCENT LARGER THAN THE EARLIER EYEWALL. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SECONDARY EYEWALL IS ALREADY IN AN ADVANCED STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON CONGRUENCE OF THE BULK OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE, WITH LOW DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WARM SSTS, RELATIVELY HIGH OHC AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN JAPAN SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POINT NORTHEAST OF GUAM. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 112 KTS AT 240000Z CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 240030Z CIMSS AIDT: 105 KTS AT 240030Z CIMSS D-MINT: 111 KTS AT 232243Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 110 KTS AT 240000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SAUDEL) WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY DECELERATING. THE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF OKINAWA BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DECELERATES AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHILE CONTINUING TO GAIN LATITUDE TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM REACHES AN INFLECTION POINT, REACHING BOTH ITS MOST POLEWARD POINT AND SLOWEST FORWARD SPEED, AT TAU 60. BY TAU 72, THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA, ACCELERATING TY 17W TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MAINLAND CHINA IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAUS 96 AND 120. REGARDING INTENSITY, BASED ON THE STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE ROBUST VHT ACTIVITY, TY 17W MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. HOWEVER, THE SAME MICROWAVE IMAGERY STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE ONSET OF ANOTHER ERC IS IMMINENT. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A FLAT INTENSITY TREND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE RYUKYU ISLANDS, INCREASED SHEAR, COOLER SSTS AND DECREASED OHC WILL GENERATE A STEADIER RATE OF WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TY 17W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL. THROUGH TAU 72, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD HAS ACTUALLY DECREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, NOW SITTING AT 100NM BETWEEN THE AI-BASED MODELS AND GFS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE ECMWF ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH TAU 72 AS WELL, WITH MINIMAL MEMBER DISPERSION. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 245NM BETWEEN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE AND THE GFS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. OF NOTE, THE GFS DEPICTS A LANDFALL NEAR THE NORTHEAST TIP OF TAIWAN BEFORE MOVING INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, WHILE THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF CHINA. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS DECREASING, BUT THE ECMWF MAINTAINS ITS POSITION AS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS, OUTPACING THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE BY ROUGHLY 150NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOWING A FLAT INTENSITY TREND THROUGH TAU 24 FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN  247 WDPN32 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.3N 107.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 104 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (NARRA) WITH A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A FEW BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. A LARGER AREA OF CIRRUS OBSCURES THE AREA IN A FILAMENT PATTERN, INDICATING CONTINUED STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT. A 232234Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN AREA TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE BROAD CIRCULATION MOVING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT WHICH ARE BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF RADAR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 232242Z SENTINEL-1D SAR PASS DEPICTING 40 KTS WRAPPED AROUND ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT OF THE SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 232350Z CIMSS AIDT: 40 KTS AT 232350Z CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 232235Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 34 KTS AT 240010Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 18W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AN OVERALL COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP WITHIN THE GULF OF TONKIN, ALTHOUGH ERRATIC MOTION IN THE EXACT TRACK CAN STILL BE EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TS 18W IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST AND A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST, CAUSING THE WOBBLING BUT GENERAL SOUTHWARD MOTION OUT TO AROUND TAU 24. AFTER THIS POINT, BOTH RIDGES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A SEPARATE NER CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS, CAUSING A POLEWARD TURN BY TAU 36. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE STR CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN, CAUSING A NORTHWESTWARD TURN BETWEEN TAUS 60 AND 72 ONCE TS 18W MAKES LANDFALL. REGARDING INTENSITY, VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, ALLOWING NARRA TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE. AFTER THIS POINT, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER 25 KTS AND OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE, CAUSING A STEADY WEAKENING TREND OVER WATER UNTIL NARRA MAKES LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 60. AT THIS POINT, INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN WILL HASTEN THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST NO LATER THAN TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE COUNTERCLOCKWISE MOTION OF TS 18W, WITH THE PREVIOUS OUTLIERS OF GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN NOW FALLING WITHIN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH BOTH STILL DEPICT A SLOWER TRACK SPEED AND DISSIPATION OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE USING AN ADJUSTED MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO EXCLUDE GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND THE ADDITIONAL OUTLIER OF NAVGEM. REGARDING INTENSITY, GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS-BASED COAMPS-TC AND HAFS WHICH BOTH DEPICT TEMPORARY SPIKES BETWEEN TAUS 24 TO 48. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM DUE TO THE DIFFERING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PREDICTED BY GFS AND ECMWF, WITH GFS DEPICTING A MUCH MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VWS BEYOND TAU 36, WHILE ECMWF REMAINS BELOW 30 KTS OF VWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS, THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN  856 WDPN33 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.2N 137.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 346 NM NORTH OF YAP MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH PUSHED RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM 1900Z-2300Z BUT HAS ONCE AGAIN BEGUN TO DECELERATE AND WOBBLE. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVERALL BEING STEERED BY THE NER TO THE SOUTHEAST, TY 17W, POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 530NM TO THE NORTH, IS EXERTING A SLIGHT TUG ON TD 19W AS THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE CAPTURE DISTANCE FOR BINARY INTERACTION. A 240012Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS A COMPACT BUT ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH LIGHT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, AND A REGION OF 30 KNOT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI AND THE ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA, SUPPORTING THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE, WITH THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 240000Z CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 240000Z CIMSS D-MINT: 30 KTS AT 232054Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 240000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: WITH TY 17W AND TD 19W NOW WITHIN RANGE OF REMOTE INTERACTION (APPROXIMATELY 530-600NM), THE TRACK TD 19W ULTIMATELY TAKES WILL IN LARGE PART BE DRIVEN BY THIS BINARY INTERACTION. TD 19W WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHWESTWARD AS IT FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF TY 17W AND IS DRIVEN ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY SEEING THE EFFECTS OF THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TY 17W, ENHANCING THE ENVIRONMENTAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, CREATED HIGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, LARGE AMOUNTS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT TO THE EAST OF TD 19W, AND BOTH FACTORS ARE SERVING TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND CONSOLIDATION. GOING FORWARD, BOTH THE HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL PERSIST, AND TD 19W WILL SLOWLY DECAY AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, DEPICTING A SMALL (100NM) AMOUNT OF CROSS-TRACK SPREAD THROUGH TAU 48. ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MODEST, SITTING AT APPROXIMATELY 250NM BETWEEN THE GFS (FAST) AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN (SLOW). THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND TRACKER WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, DEPICTING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH// NNNN