169 WTPA42 PHFO 240232 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 47 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 Lala remains a well organized tropical storm despite moving over cool waters. The system is maintaining a partial eyewall that wraps a little more than halfway around the center, along with numerous fragmented outer rainbands. There has been little change in the latest satellite intensity estimates, and a blend of the latest objective and subjective estimates supports holding the initial intensity steady at 55 kt. An ASCAT-C pass from around 21Z was helpful in adjusting the 34- and 50-kt wind radii. The storm is moving slowly northwestward at about 6 kt. An even slower northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as Lala is forecast to remain located just southwest of a strong subtropical ridge, not far from the ridge axis where the steering currents are weak. This motion should cause Lala to cross the International Date Line around the middle of the week. Although the models show the same general theme, there is a fair amount of cross-track spread beyond 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies closer to the left side of the guidance envelope, near the Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids. Lala is expected to weaken over the next several days as it moves over progressively cooler waters, but the weakening trend will likely be slow since it is expected to remain in generally low wind shear conditions. The GFS and ECMWF models show the storm losing organized deep convection around the time it nears the International Date Line in a few days. Based on that guidance, the transition to a post-tropical cyclone has been moved up to day 4. Otherwise, this intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 33.1N 174.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 33.5N 175.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 34.3N 175.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 34.8N 176.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 35.4N 177.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 36.0N 178.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 36.6N 179.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 38.2N 179.5E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0000Z 39.8N 177.9E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi  225 WTPA43 PHFO 240233 TCDCP3 Tropical Depression Moke Discussion Number 15 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 Convection associated with Moke has decreased significantly during the past several hours. The cyclone is now comprised of an exposed swirl of low- to mid-level clouds, with the remaining convection now located just south of the Island of Hawaii well to the northeast of the center. Just-received OSCAT data shows maximum winds of 25 to maybe 30 kt, and based on this Moke is being downgraded to a tropical depression. A combination of southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment should continue to inhibit Moke's ability to develop convection. The dynamical models forecast the cyclone to keep weakening, with the system likely to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h at the latest and to a trough by 72 h. The intensity forecast follows this, and it is possible that Moke will dissipate faster than currently forecast if significant convection does not re-develop. The initial motion is 275/12 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge should steer the cyclone generally westward for the remainder of its life, keeping Moke well south of the main Hawaiian Islands. The guidance again nudged southward, and the new forecast track is a little south of the previous track. Despite this nudge and the weakening of the cyclone, Moke is still expected to pass close enough to the Hawaiian Islands to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next day or two. Key Messages: 1. Rain bands associated with Tropical Depression Moke will continue over the Big Island while spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 15.3N 157.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.4N 159.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.8N 161.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.3N 164.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 16.8N 167.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 26/1200Z 17.3N 169.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven  586 WTPZ44 KNHC 240245 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092026 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The most recent ASCAT and OSCAT passes have shown that the strongest winds with Iselle are around 40 to 45 kt. UW-CIMSS objective estimates are in the 35-55 kt range, and the most recent TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is T3.0/45 kt. With all of that data in consideration, the intensity has been held at 45 kt for this advisory. However, recent observations at Isla Clarion have recorded sustained winds around 30 to 35 kt, gusting up to around 40 kt and a surface pressure of 1002 mb. Thus in light of that data, the central pressure for Iselle has been lowered to 999 mb. The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310 degrees at 8 kt. A continued northwestward motion is expected through Monday while Iselle is steered by ridging over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. As the ridge builds in some more to the north of the cyclone, a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. The current NHC track is very similar to the previous track, only minor adjustments in speed and location have been made. The track remains very close to the lastest HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) model and the Google DeepMind (GDMI). There is a good amount of spread in the track forecast towards the later portion of the forecast, thus the confidence is slightly below average. Iselle will be traveling over warm water and within a moist environment with weak to moderate vertical wind shear for the next day or so, but westerly vertical wind shear should increase to the 15-20 kt range by Tuesday or sooner. Strengthening is expected for the next 36 h. The current NHC intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance, thus it is possible that Iselle might not quite make it to hurricane status. After this period, the cyclone will move into a more hostile environment with stronger shear, colder sea-surface temperatures, and some slightly drier air. As such, the storm should progressively get weaker beyond a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 17.1N 115.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 18.1N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 19.4N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 20.4N 119.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 21.5N 123.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 21.9N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 22.8N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 23.6N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi