873 WTPN32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 013 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 107.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 107.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.1N 107.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 19.9N 108.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 20.3N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 21.0N 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.1N 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.5N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 107.8E. 23AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  498 WTPN31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 022 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 23.2N 137.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 137.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 24.3N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 25.4N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 26.4N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 27.2N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 27.7N 126.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 27.6N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 27.1N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 26.0N 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 23.5N 137.2E. 23AUG26. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN  579 WTPN33 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 006 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 14.0N 136.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 136.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 15.6N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 17.6N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 19.9N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.0N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 136.8E. 23AUG26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN  137 WDPN31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.2N 137.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 584 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 48 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN APPROXIMATELY 15NM WIDE EYE FEATURE, WHICH IN THE MOST RECENT FRAMES OF EIR APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING ONCE AGAIN. THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WHICH STARTED YESTERDAY IS LIKELY ONGOING, ALTHOUGH A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY MAKES DETERMINATION OF THE CURRENT STATUS CHALLENGING. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL STRUCTURAL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EIR ALONG WITH A COMPARISON TO A 10 HOUR OLD MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE ERC HAS NOT YET FULLY COMPLETED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH- NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, INDUCING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EASTERLY SHEAR OVER TOP OF TY 17W. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OUTLINED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE OVERALL, WITH LIGHT WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS, HIGH OHC AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY THE IMPACTS OF THE ONGOING ERC. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN JAPAN TO A POSITION NORTHEAST OF GUAM. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 116 KTS AT 231830Z CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 231830Z CIMSS AIDT: 105 KTS AT 231830Z CIMSS D-MINT: 105 KTS AT 231646Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 108 KTS AT 231800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SAUDEL) CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE EXPANSIVE STR SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TRACK OR SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE 36 HOURS AS THE STR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. AROUND TAU 36 HOWEVER, THE RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT, WITH A WEAKNESS OR BREAK IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH KOREA. AS TY 17W APPROACHES THE RYUKYU ISLANDS, IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN WHILE CONTINUING TO GAIN LATITUDE. AROUND TAU 60, THE SYSTEM REACHES AN INFLECTION POINT, REACHING ITS FURTHEST POLEWARD EXTENT, AND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA. AFTER TAU 72, THE STEERING SHIFT WILL BE COMPLETE, AND TY 17W WILL QUICKLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CHINA BY TAU 120. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE LENGTHY ERC HAS PROVEN TO BE A SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR, PRECLUDING TY 17W FROM REACHING ITS INITIALLY PREDICTED INTENSITY. AT THIS POINT, ONCE THE ERC WRAPS UP, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL LIMIT ITS ABILITY TO REINTENSIFY POST-ERC. THE PRIMARY INHIBITOR GOING FORWARD WILL BE A LACK OF OUTFLOW, WHICH WILL BE CHOKED OFF BY THE PRESENCE OF A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ISOLATED FROM AN OUTFLOW PERSPECTIVE, IT ALSO BECOMES COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR, IN EFFECT COCOONING THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS, THEN BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PHASES OF THE FORECAST. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 165NM BY TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM DIVERGING FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE AND MARKING THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER, WHILE THE GFS AND AI-BASED MODELS MARK THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. THROUGH TAU 72, ENSEMBLE MEMBER DISPERSION IS MINOR, AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKERS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN. THE JTWC FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72 IS PLACED NEAR THE AI CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AFTER TAU 72, CROSS-TRACK MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TO NEARLY 400NM, WITH THE GALWEM TRACK THIS SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO CHINA ALONG THE 28TH PARALLEL, WHILE GFS DIVES THE SYSTEM JUST WEST OF ISHIKAGIJIMA BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF TAIWAN PRIOR TO TAU 120. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE DISPERSED BETWEEN THE TWO OUTLIERS. ENSEMBLE DISPERSION INCREASES SHARPLY AFTER TAU 72 AS WELL, WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL JTWC SUPER ENSEMBLE DEPICTING MEMBERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH COAST OF KOREA ALL THE WAY TO HAINAN, THOUGH THE MOST CONCENTRATED TRACK DENSITY IS FOCUSED ALONG THE OVERALL ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND TRACKER THROUGH TAU 120, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT DEPICTING A FLAT INTENSITY TREND THROUGH TAU 36 FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN  629 WDPN32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.4N 107.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 113 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (NARRA) MAINTAINING A STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). SOME LOW LEVEL TURNING ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM IS VISIBLE IN EIR, BUT REMAINS PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY THE CONVECTION AND CIRRUS. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE OVERALL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OF TS 18W OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS RECORDED FROM BACH LONG VY IN THE CENTER OF THE GULF OF TONKIN HAVE RECORDED BACKING WINDS OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS GOING FROM 29 KTS OF WESTERLIES AT 231500Z TO 29 KTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 231800Z, LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BROAD CIRCULATION DEPICTED IN RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BACH LONG VY AS WELL AS THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON 231343Z METOP-C ASCAT DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMBINATION OF A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST AND A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 231740Z CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 231740Z CIMSS D-MINT: 42 KTS AT 231454Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 38 KTS AT 231710Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 18W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW, ERRATIC MOTION IN THE GULF OF TONKIN, TRACKING IN AN OVERALL SOUTHWARD MOTION OUT TO TAU 24 UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCES OF A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST AND A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST, RESTRICTING WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF TS 18W. AFTER TAU 24, A SEPARATE NER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 18W, CAUSING A POLEWARD TURN AND ULTIMATELY DRIVING TS 18W OVER LAND AND INTO SOUTHERN CHINA BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 60. REGARDING INTENSITY, A SHORT WINDOW OF MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM TAU 12 TO 24 AS VWS IS PREDICTED TO ABATE, ALLOWING TS 18W TO MAINTAIN 40 KT INTENSITY TO THIS POINT. VWS IS EXPECTED TO SHARPLY INCREASE AFTER TAU 36, LEADING TO A WEAKENING TREND, WHICH WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA BY TAU 60, ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON AN INITIAL SOUTHWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A POLEWARD TURN BY TAU 36. GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN OUTLIERS TO THE WEST AND ARE THE ONLY MODELS TO SHOW DISSIPATION OVER WATER. LARGER SPREAD REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL, RANGING FROM GALWEM DEPICTING THE EASTERNMOST TRACK OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA, WHILE A MAJORITY OF MODELS PREDICT A SHARPER NORTHWESTWARD TURN BETWEEN TAUS 60 AND 72. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, USING AN ADJUSTED CONSENSUS TRACK EXCLUDING THE OUTLIERS OF GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND GALWEM. MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORT-TERM PLATEAU IN INTENSITY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING BY TAU 36, AND THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE EXPECTING DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THE ECMWF AND COAMPS-TC MODELS PREDICT A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AT TAU 36, AND WHILE THIS SPIKE IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE JTWC FORECAST, IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN  891 WDPN33 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.0N 136.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 286 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED DISPLACED WEST OF THE LLCC OVERNIGHT DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. A 231633Z AMSR2 COLOR-ENHANCED 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALED THE EXPOSED LLCC EAST OF A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL MESOVORTEX. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE SWIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED AS UNFAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND SUPPORTIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 35 KTS AT 231840Z CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 231800Z CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 231800Z CIMSS D-MINT: 27 KTS AT 231648Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 231800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN) HAS TAKEN A BIT OF A SLOW NORTHWARD JOG OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, LIKELY DUE TO AN ABORTED ATTEMPT AT VORTEX ALIGNMENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL MESOVORTEX EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST. SINCE THE 1800Z ANALYSIS, THE EXPOSED LLCC APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE CLEAR, RELATIVELY DRY AIR EAST OF THE CONVECTION WHICH CONTINUES TO SLIDE WESTWARD UNDER THE MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. NOW HAVING RESUMED COURSE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACK IN A GRACEFUL ARC, TURNING NORTHWARD BY TAU 12 AS IT REACHES THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE NER AND THE STEERING IS PICKED UP BY THE STR FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHWESTWARD, FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF TY 17W AS IT BEGINS BINARY INTERACTION WITH 17W. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT SHEAR, WHICH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE. FURTHER INFLUXES OF DRY AIR WILL ADD INSULT TO INJURY AND TD 19W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING NO LATER THAN TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DISCOUNTING THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM WEST AT TAU 24, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 225NM, BETWEEN THE FAST GFS AND THE SLOW NAVGEM, BY TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND THE EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND TRACKER WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS CTCX, WHICH DEPICTS A REINTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN