930 WTPA42 PHFO 232033 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 46 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows Tropical Storm Lala may be a bit better organized, with deep convection over the center and a larger outer band now wrapping around the eastern and northern semicircles. The change in appearance has not yet influenced the objective and subjective satellite-based intensity estimates, which support maintaining an initial intensity of 55 kt for this advisory. I again note that this intensity could be generous, but is consistent with a steady decay of the cyclone over cooler waters and the recent improved appearance on satellite imagery. Lala's current forward motion is analyzed to be 305/4 kt. The mid-level ridge positioned just south and east of the central Aleutian Islands is expected to remain the primary steering feature through this week. As a result, the tropical storm is forecast to continue slowly on a northwestward heading until degenerating into a remnant low by 120 h. The track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA), which lies on the western side of the guidance envelope. The intensity forecast is largely unchanged, lies within the middle of the guidance envelope near HCCA, and continues to show a slow and steady decay as the tropical cyclone moves across gradually cooler waters. Some increase in vertical wind shear beginning around 72 h should allow mid-level dry air to better penetrate the cyclone. Lala is forecast to become a remnant low by 120 h, in agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery, though this could happen sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 32.5N 174.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 33.0N 174.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 33.6N 175.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 34.3N 176.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 34.8N 177.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 35.4N 177.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 36.1N 178.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 37.5N 179.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 39.6N 178.1E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Cangialosi  859 WTPA43 PHFO 232032 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 14 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 A large area of thunderstorm activity continues in the northern semicircle of Moke, though the southern side of the system remains mostly exposed. Visible satellite imagery indicates the center is on the southwestern edge of the deep convection, reflective of the southerly shear. While Dvorak intensity estimates have recently increased, recent scatterometer data is actually lower than earlier, showing only a small area of winds above 30 kt. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt assuming some undersampling knowing the bias of that instrument. Moke should move through a tough environment during the next several days, with lots of mid-level dry air and moderate shear in its path. These conditions should suppress the influences of the warm sea-surface temperatures, and Moke will likely only produce temporary bursts of deep convection early this week. Shear is still forecast to increase in a day or two, and the storm is expected to weaken into a tropical depression and/or remnant low around that time. The model trend of an earlier dissipation continues, so the time of tropical depression and remnant low status has been moved up 12-24 h, with a faster weakening than the last advisory. Moke is moving westward at about 13 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge should steer the storm westward to west-northwestward for the next several days, keeping Moke well south of the main Hawaiian Islands. Similar to the last forecast, the model guidance has shifted a bit to the south, and the NHC track is moved in that direction. Moke is still expected to pass close enough to the Hawaiian Islands to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next day or two. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke is gradually increasing over the Big Island of Hawaii today. Rain will then spread westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.2N 156.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.4N 158.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 15.7N 160.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 16.2N 163.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 16.8N 166.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 26/0600Z 17.4N 168.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake  858 WTPZ44 KNHC 232032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092026 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Recent satellite imagery over Iselle shows a shear pattern, with a large area of very deep convection located in the southwest semicircle of Iselle. Visible imagery shows a partially exposed low-level center at the northeast edge of the convection. A recent 23/1748Z ASCAT-C overpass shows an elongated, but well-defined surface circulation, with a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of about 70 nautical miles, with gales in the NE, SE and SW quadrants. There are several 40-45 kt vectors on the south side, and the intensity is increased to 45 kt for this advisory. This is above the latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB, which is T2.5/35 kt. The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 315 degrees at 14 kt. A continued northwest motion is expected through Monday while Iselle is steered by ridging over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. As the ridge builds in a bit more to the north of the cyclone, a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. The NHC track forecast has been shifted well to the right (or northeast) of the previous forecast through 48 h, mainly due to the farther north initial position and is nearly on top of the previous forecast thereafter. The NHC forecast is very close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) model and the Google DeepMind (GDMI). There is still a healthy amount of spread in the track guidance, and confidence in the track forecast is slightly below average. Iselle will be traveling over warm water and within a moist environment with weak to moderate vertical wind shear for the next day or so, but westerly vertical wind shear should increase to the 15-20 kt range by Tuesday or sooner. Strengthening is expected for the next 36 h. Thereafter, Iselle will be moving into a more stable environment, with gradually decreasing sea-surface temperatures, so weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday night or Wednesday. Only small changes have been made to the NHC intensity forecast, which lies between the middle and high end of the guidance envelope for most of the forecast period. Rapid intensification is becoming less likely because the RMW is still large, and the system has at most 36-48 h left to strengthen. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 16.9N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 18.2N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 19.6N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 20.8N 119.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 21.4N 121.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 21.9N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 22.4N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 23.3N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 24.2N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen