363 WTPN32 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 012 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 108.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 108.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.2N 108.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 19.9N 108.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.8N 108.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 20.5N 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.4N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.3N 110.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 108.1E. 23AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 127 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  531 WTPN33 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 005 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 13.7N 136.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 136.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.0N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 17.0N 138.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 18.8N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 20.6N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 136.8E. 23AUG26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 473 NM WEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  302 WTPN31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 021 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 22.6N 139.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 139.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 23.8N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 24.9N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 26.0N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 26.8N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 27.4N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 27.6N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 27.1N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 26.2N 119.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 138.6E. 23AUG26. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 949 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  937 WDPN33 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.7N 136.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 473 NM WEST OF NAVSTA GUAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN). THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC, WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, AS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE WIND FIELD OBSERVED IN A PARTIAL 231204Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS. THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS SUBJECT TO 10-15 KTS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL, WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BEING CONSTRAINED BY DRY AIR TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED LLCC OBSERVED IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, PRIMARILY BASED ON THE PARTIAL 231204Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25-30 KTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AUTOMATED AND AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 231210Z CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 231210Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 231210Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN SECTORS ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 19W IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A NEW STEERING PATTERN DOMINATED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL TURN TD 19W NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE VWS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS BY AROUND TAU 12. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR, COMBINED WITH DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT, WILL SUPPORT A STEADY WEAKENING TREND, WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 20-25 KTS BY TAU 36. BY TAU 48, TD 19W WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN VERTICAL COHERENCE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHLY SHEARED PERIPHERAL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON 17W. CONSEQUENTLY, DISSIPATION OVER WATER IS FORECAST BY TAU 48, THOUGH A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE SHOULD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL ADVECTION BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF ABOUT 95 NM AT TAU 48, BUT AN ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF MORE THAN 200 NM. THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. UKMET AND GFS ARE THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS, REPRESENTING THE SLOWEST AND FASTEST SOLUTIONS, RESPECTIVELY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAKENING TREND, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 24, WITH COAMPS-TC THE PRIMARY OUTLIER IN FORECASTING INTENSIFICATION TO 50-55 KTS. THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN  152 WDPN31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.6N 139.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 675 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CORE OF TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) CONTINUING TO REORIENT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE SYSTEM WAS A 230811Z WSFM 37 GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUING TO ERODE AND BEING SURROUNDED BY THE MORE DOMINANT OUTER EYEWALL. THE LACK OF MORE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY CAUSES THERE TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE ERC. THE EIR DOES SHOW A DISTINCT WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL, INDICATING THAT THE INNER EYEWALL IS LIKELY BEING CHOKED OFF AND ERODING IN THE LATER STAGES OF THE ERC TIMELINE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED EIR AND SUPPORTED BY A TIMELY 231143Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII ARE PLACED WITH HIGH PLACED BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 17W REMAINS PLACED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 231143Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 231200Z CIMSS AIDT: 103 KTS AT 231200Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 101 KTS AT 231200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 12. NEAR TAU 12, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A SEPARATE STR CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN, WHICH WILL KEEP 17W ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 60. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN COAST OF OKINAWA BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 60. AFTER TAU 60, TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW THROUGH TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING PATTERN AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO A STR CENTERED OVER EASTERN CHINA. 17W IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT OF THAT STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FINAL LANDFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR JUST BEFORE TAU 120, NORTHWEST OF TAIWAN, THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 17W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OF 110 KTS THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO RECOVER FROM THE ONGOING ERC. 17W IS ALSO ENTERING WATERS CONTAINING A LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC), WHICH WILL ALSO HINDER THE CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT AFTER THE ERC COMPLETES. AROUND TAU 24, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF 17W WILL FILL, CAUSING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE, CAUSING 17W TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APRROACHES OKINAWA. ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE EAST CHINA SEA, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INDUCED BY THE STRONG RIDGE OVER CHINA WILL CAUSE FURTHER WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH ONLY NAVGEM BEING AN OUTLIER, WHICH TRACKS THE VORTEX MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS MEASURED TO ONLY BE ABOUT 90 NM. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS QUITE A BIT MORE SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS. NOTABLY, THE GFS SHOWS A SHARPER SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHERN TAIWAN. ON THE OTHER HAND, GALWEM SHOWS NO SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AT ALL AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND THEN CLOSER TO THE EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH TAU 120 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND FROM TAU 24 ONWARD, HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT DIFFER. FIRST, COAMPS-TC SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 60 BEFORE WEAKENING. HAFS-A DEPICTS A PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION AFTER PASSING OKINAWA AND IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DO SO. THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO A SIGNIFICANTLY SHARPER SOUTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD TAIWAN, ALLOWING FOR THE VORTEX TO NOT FEEL THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR NEARLY AS MUCH. OVERALL, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN WITHIN THE MAIN GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 120 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN  841 WDPN31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.6N 139.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 675 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 46 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CORE OF TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) CONTINUING TO REORIENT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE SYSTEM WAS A 230811Z WSFM 37 GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUING TO ERODE AND BEING SURROUNDED BY THE MORE DOMINANT OUTER EYEWALL. THE LACK OF MORE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY CAUSES THERE TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE ERC. THE EIR DOES SHOW A DISTINCT WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL, INDICATING THAT THE INNER EYEWALL IS LIKELY BEING CHOKED OFF AND ERODING IN THE LATER STAGES OF THE ERC TIMELINE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED EIR AND SUPPORTED BY A TIMELY 231143Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 17W REMAINS PLACED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 231143Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 231200Z CIMSS AIDT: 103 KTS AT 231200Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 101 KTS AT 231200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 12. NEAR TAU 12, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A SEPARATE STR CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN, WHICH WILL KEEP 17W ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 60. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN COAST OF OKINAWA BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 60. AFTER TAU 60, TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW THROUGH TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING PATTERN AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO A STR CENTERED OVER EASTERN CHINA. 17W IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT OF THAT STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FINAL LANDFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR JUST BEFORE TAU 120, NORTHWEST OF TAIWAN, THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 17W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OF 110 KTS THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO RECOVER FROM THE ONGOING ERC. 17W IS ALSO ENTERING WATERS CONTAINING A LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC), WHICH WILL ALSO HINDER THE CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT AFTER THE ERC COMPLETES. AROUND TAU 24, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF 17W WILL FILL, CAUSING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE, CAUSING 17W TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OKINAWA. ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE EAST CHINA SEA, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INDUCED BY THE STRONG RIDGE OVER CHINA WILL CAUSE FURTHER WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH ONLY NAVGEM BEING AN OUTLIER, WHICH TRACKS THE VORTEX MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS MEASURED TO ONLY BE ABOUT 90 NM. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS QUITE A BIT MORE SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS. NOTABLY, THE GFS SHOWS A SHARPER SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHERN TAIWAN. ON THE OTHER HAND, GALWEM SHOWS NO SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AT ALL AND ACTUALLY SHOWS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND THEN CLOSER TO THE EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH TAU 120 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND FROM TAU 24 ONWARD, HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT DIFFER. FIRST, COAMPS-TC SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 60 BEFORE WEAKENING. HAFS-A DEPICTS A PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION AFTER PASSING OKINAWA AND IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DO SO. THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO A SIGNIFICANTLY SHARPER SOUTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD TAIWAN, ALLOWING FOR THE VORTEX TO NOT FEEL THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR NEARLY AS MUCH. OVERALL, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN WITHIN THE MAIN GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 120 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN  470 WDPN32 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.5N 108.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 127 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 01 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EVIDENT, INDICATED BY A SHARP EDGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CLOSE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BACH LONG VI REPORTED 37 KTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 231200Z, FURTHER SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 18W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMPETING STEERING PATTERN WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 231210Z CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 231210Z CIMSS D-MINT: 40 KTS AT 231326Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 40 KTS AT 231210Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 18W IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS PLACED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE ACTUAL TRACK OF 18W IS LIKELY TO BE ERRATIC DURING THIS TIME, WHICH IS NOT CAPTURED BY THE JTWC FORECAST. AROUND TAU 36, THE NER TO THE SOUTH IS EXPTECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 18W, CAUSING IT TO MAKE AN EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 18W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KTS THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. AFTER TAU 36, EASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL INCREASE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO START ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF CHINA. 18W IS THEN FORECAST TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN POOR AGREEMENT UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 FOLLOWED BY A POLEWARD TURN, HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST DURATION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24 TO AROUND 50 KTS, WHICH IS NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY IF THE SHEAR DOES NOT HINDER THE VORTEX TOO MUCH. MODELS THEN AGREE ON A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN