709 WTPN33 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 135.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 135.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 14.5N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.0N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 18.1N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 19.8N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 136.2E. 23AUG26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  121 WTPN32 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 011 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 108.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 108.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.3N 108.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.9N 108.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 19.8N 108.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 20.1N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 20.9N 109.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 21.8N 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 108.1E. 23AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  243 WTPN31 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 020 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 21.9N 140.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 140.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.1N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 24.3N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 25.3N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 26.2N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 26.9N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 27.3N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 27.1N 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 26.3N 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 140.2E. 23AUG26. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 768 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230600Z IS 949 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  570 WDPN33 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.4N 135.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 267 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN) ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF STRONG GRADIENT FLOW IN WHICH THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED, MULTIPLIED BY 10-15 KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN WARM (29-30 C) AND OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY A MODERATE EQUATORWARD CHANNEL. WHILE PERSISTENT TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS HIGHLY CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE WESTERN QUADRANT, SIGNIFICANT DRY-AIR INTRUSION EMBEDDED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO ENVELOPE THE SYSTEM. STRUCTURALLY, TD 19W IS BECOMING MORE ELONGATED AS WITNESSED BY 230420Z GW1 AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER (230057Z) METOP-C ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OF THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 230230Z OSCAT PASS, AND THE AUTOMATED AND AGENCY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 39 KTS AT 230610Z CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 230610Z CIMSS AIDT: 31 KTS AT 230610Z CIMSS D-MINT: 27 KTS AT 230500Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 230640Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 19W IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD, DRIVEN BY THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NER ANCHORED TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST AND ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. AROUND TAU 24, THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE WILL SHIFT TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST, VEERING TD 19W NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SUBSIDED WAKE OF TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL). WHILE THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INITIALLY LOW, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT UPTICK JUST PRIOR TO TAU 24, WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR INTO THE CORE WILL INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND, DEPRESSING INTENSITY TO 20-25 KTS BY TAU 36. TOWARDS TAU 48, TD 19W WILL STRUGGLE TO PRESERVE ITS VERTICAL STRUCTURE AS IT ENTERS THE REGION OF SHEARED TAIL END WINDS OF TYPHOON 17W. ACCORDINGLY, COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER OPEN WATER IS PROJECTED BY TAU 48, ALTHOUGH AN ACCELERATED DECAY TIMELINE REMAINS VIABLE SHOULD INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BE MORE PRONOUNCED AS CURRENTLY MODELED. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITS FAIR INITIAL CONSISTENCY, EVIDENCED BY A CONSTRAINED 115 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48, WITH ALL MAJOR GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE SYSTEMS RESOLVING COHERENT MOTION UNDER CURRENT STEERING FORCING. WHILE THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, CURRENT PLACEMENT IS LEANING TOWARDS THE WESTERN PROJECTION OF THE EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS BEEN INITIALIZING VERY WELL OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GFS DEPICTS A LIGHT INCREASE IN PEAK WIND SPEEDS TO 35 KTS AT TAU 12, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DECAY. ALL OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS PREDICT STEADY WEAKENING, WITH HAFS ESTIMATING FULL DISSIPATION AS EARLY AS TAU 24. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS A GFS-DRIVEN COAMPS-TC, WHICH ESTIMATES THE SYSTEM REACHING 45-50 KTS AROUND TAU 24. OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND SPEED MAXIMA PROPOSED BY HAFS GUIDANCE, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN  414 WDPN31 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.9N 140.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 768 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WITH A SLIGHTLY RAGGED EYE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WHICH HAS STALLED FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE MSI ALSO SHOWS A STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE ERC WAS CONFIRMED BY A 230422Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED A CLEAR MOAT FEATURE SURROUNDING THE INNER EYEWALL. THE AMSR2 IMAGE ALSO REVEALED THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL IS BECOMING MORE DOMINANT, HINTING THAT THE ERC IS WELL UNDERWAY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 17W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 114 KTS AT 230600Z CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 230600Z CIMSS AIDT: 105 KTS AT 230600Z CIMSS D-MINT: 115 KTS AT 230417Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 109 KTS AT 230600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 24. NEAR TAU 24, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A SEPARATE STR CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN, WHICH WILL KEEP 17W ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 60. LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN OKINAWA IS FORECAST TO OCCUR RIGHT AROUND TAU 60. AFTER TAU 60, TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND THE STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO A STR CENTERED OVER EASTERN CHINA. 17W IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT OF THAT STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 17W IS NOW FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OF 110 KTS THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO RECOVER FROM THE ONGOING ERC. 17W IS NOW ALSO ENTERING WATERS CONTAINING A LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC), WHICH WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY HINDER THE CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT AFTER THE ERC COMPLETES. AFTER TAU 36, NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, CAUSING 17W TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OKINAWA. ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE EAST CHINA SEA, NORTHERLY SHEAR INDUCED BY THE STRONG RIDGE OVER CHINA WILL CAUSE FURTHER WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH ONLY NAVGEM BEING AN OUTLIER, WHICH TRACKS THE VORTEX MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS MEASURED TO BE ABOUT 100 NM. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS QUITE A BIT MORE SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS. NOTABLY, THE GFS AND EC-AIFS BOTH SHOW A MUCH SHARPER AND FASTER SOUTHWESTWARD TURN THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE. ON THE OTHER HAND, GALWEM SHOWS NO SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AT ALL. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH TAU 120 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TWO MAIN GROUPINGS. ONE IS MADE UP OF COAMPS-TC, GOOGLE DEEPMIND, AND SHIPS, WHICH SHOW A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING. THE OTHER GROUP IS MADE UP OF HAFS-A AND GFS, WHICH SHOW A QUICKER WEAKENING TREND IN THE NEAR TERM. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSER TO THE FIRST GROUP WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN  909 WDPN32 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.6N 108.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 126 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, CLOSE TO THE COAST. A 230610Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, SUPPORTING THE INTIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGREEMENT OF T2.5 FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 18W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 230213Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMPETING STEERING PATTERN WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 230610Z CIMSS AIDT: 42 KTS AT 230610Z CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 230601Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 39 KTS AT 230610Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 18W IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS PLACED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONEMNT. THE ACTUAL TRACK OF 18W IS LIKELY TO BE ERRATIC DURING THIS TIME, WHICH IS NOT CAPTURED BY THE JTWC FORECAST. AROUND TAU 36, THE NER TO THE SOUTH IS EXPTECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 18W, CAUSING IT TO MAKE AN EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 18W IS FORECAST TO MAINTIAN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KTS THORUGH TAU 24 AS THE SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. AFTER TAU 24, NORTHEASTRLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE, CASUING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF CHINA. 18W IS THEN FORECAST TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN POOR AGREEMENT UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 FOLLOWED BY A POLEWARD TURN, HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE ENITRE FORECAST DURATION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. INTENISTY GUIDANCE AGREES ON A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72 WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLWS THE CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN  244 WDPN32 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.6N 108.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 126 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, CLOSE TO THE COAST. A 230610Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGREEMENT OF T2.5 FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 18W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIROMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 230213Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMPETING STEERING PATTERN WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 230610Z CIMSS AIDT: 42 KTS AT 230610Z CIMSS D-MINT: 36 KTS AT 230601Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 39 KTS AT 230610Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 18W IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS PLACED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONEMENT. THE ACTUAL TRACK OF 18W IS LIKELY TO BE ERRATIC DURING THIS TIME, WHICH IS NOT CAPTURED BY THE JTWC FORECAST. AROUND TAU 36, THE NER TO THE SOUTH IS EXPTECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 18W, CAUSING IT TO MAKE AN EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 18W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KTS THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. AFTER TAU 24, NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF CHINA. 18W IS THEN FORECAST TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN POOR AGREEMENT UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 FOLLOWED BY A POLEWARD TURN, HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST DURATION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72 WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN