112 WTPA43 PHFO 230239 TCDCP3 Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 11 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Moke has weakened slightly during the past several hours. The persistent deep convection that had been located over and north of the circulation overnight and through the morning hours has largely collapsed, with cloud tops warming noticeably. This deterioration appears to be due, at least in part, to persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. Peak 700-mb flight-level winds from the reconnaissance aircraft have been around 43 kt, while a UAS measured peak winds of about 38 kt while sampling near the surface in the northeast quadrant. These data, along with the deteriorating satellite presentation, support lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt for this advisory. Moke continues to move west-northwestward, with an initial motion of 280/12 kt. A general west-northwestward motion is expected to continue during the next several days as a low- to mid-level ridge strengthens to the north of the cyclone. This track should bring the center of Moke a couple of hundred miles south of the Big Island on Sunday and then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands thereafter. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. Despite the center of Moke remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone is expected to pass close enough to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next couple of days. Moke appears to be near its peak intensity, if it has not already reached it. Although vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease somewhat during the next day, an increasingly dry and stable surrounding environment should limit additional strengthening and likely cause Moke to begin weakening on Sunday. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear and continued entrainment of dry air should result in a gradual weakening trend through early next week. By around 96 h, both the GFS and ECMWF depict Moke becoming largely devoid of deep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday, then dissipate by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the middle to upper end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late tonight, with rain spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. 2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 15.3N 152.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 15.6N 153.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 15.9N 156.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 16.3N 158.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 16.8N 161.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 17.3N 163.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 18.0N 166.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 18.9N 172.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs  295 WTPA42 PHFO 230244 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 43 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026 Lala has a good structure of curved convective bands surrounding a ragged and intermittent eye. However, the cloud tops are not cold, with tops of -50C to -55C confined to small areas near the center. The various satellite intensity estimates range from 45-65 kt and are trending slowly downward, while an earlier ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds between 50-55 kt. Based on these data and the possibility of undersampling of the ASCAT data, the initial intensity is reduced to 60 kt. Thus, Lala is downgraded to a tropical storm. The initial motion is 320/5 kt. During the forecast period, Lala should be steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north, with this feature expected to build northwestward due to a developing baroclinic trough over the far northwestern Pacific. This pattern should cause Lala to move on a general slow northwestward track. There is little change to the track guidance, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast. Despite the high latitudes of the forecast, Lala is likely to stay well away from any baroclinic zones that could cause extratropical transition. The cyclone is expected to remain in an area of light to moderate shear for the next several days, so the intensity will be controlled mainly by sea surface temperatures and moisture. The storm has another 24 h over sea surface temperatures of 26C, after which the water gets colder along the forecast track. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance in showing a slow weakening over the next several days. As before, Lala is forecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical around 120 h as suggested by simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 31.5N 172.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 32.0N 173.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 32.7N 174.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 33.3N 174.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 33.9N 175.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 34.7N 176.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 35.4N 176.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 37.2N 178.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 39.1N 180.0E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven