886 WTPN31 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 017 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 19.6N 144.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 144.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 21.1N 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 22.4N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 23.5N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 24.5N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 25.4N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 26.2N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 27.0N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 26.7N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 144.2E. 22AUG26. TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1025 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221200Z IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (NARRA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  424 WTPN33 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220753ZAUG2026// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 135.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 135.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 13.3N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 14.2N 137.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.6N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 17.5N 139.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.4N 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 20.9N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 135.5E. 22AUG26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM WEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221200Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (NARRA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 220800).// NNNN  699 WTPN32 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 008 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 21.0N 108.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 108.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.7N 107.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.4N 107.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.1N 108.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 19.7N 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 20.0N 108.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 20.7N 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.1N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 108.0E. 22AUG26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (NARRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221200Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  115 WDPN31 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.6N 144.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1025 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WITH A SLIGHTLY RAGGED EYE THAT HAS CONTINUED TO WARM OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE EYEWALL WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEFINED CIRRUS FILAMENTS EXPANDING OUTWARD TO THE NORTH, AND IS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. 17W HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, NOW HAVING INTENSIFIED 35 KTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 17W IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 96 KTS AT 221040Z CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 221200Z CIMSS AIDT: 86 KTS AT 221200Z CIMSS D-MINT: 106 KTS AT 221222Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 105 KTS AT 221200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 17W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. NEAR TAU 48, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER STR POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING COMPLEX WILL KEEP 17W ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 96. THE TIMING OF LANDFALL OVER OKINAWA HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS, AND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR JUST BEFORE TAU 96. AFTERWARD, TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CHINA. A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, TOWARD NORTHERN TAIWAN IS THEN LIKELY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK OF AROUND 130 KTS AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. AFTER TAU 36, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL WEAKEN AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, CAUSING 17W TO START ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES OKINAWA. FURTHER WEAKENING WITHIN THE EAST CHINA SEA IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR INDUCED BY A STRONG RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE OUTLIER BEING NAVGEM, WHICH TRACKS THE VORTEX MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS MEASURED TO BE 160 NM. AFTER TAU 72, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO ARUND 200 NM WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH MAKING A FASTER SOUTHWESTWARD TURN THAN THE EC-AIFS AND EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE ADJUSTED CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN HEDGED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND EC-AIFS THROUGH TAU 120 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT BETWEEN THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS AND THE NON-RI AIDS. THE RI AIDS SHOW A PEAK OF 130-150 KTS AT TAU 36 WHILE HAFS-A ONLY SHOWS A PEAK OF 115 KTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSER TO THE RI AIDS THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO THE EXPECTED HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MODELS THEN AGREE ON STEADY WEAKENING FROM TAU 48 ONWARD AND THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN  887 WDPN33 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.2N 135.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 543 NM WEST OF NAVSTA GUAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND THE OUTER BANDING HAS STARTED TO WRAP TIGHTER INTO A NEARLY FULLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), A GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT CONTAINS HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, HOWEVER, MUCH DRIER AIR SURROUNDS THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 221130Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS, SUPPORTED BY EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 221023Z F16 SSMIS MICROWAVE SUITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SAME ASCAT PASS, AS WELL AS 220908Z SMOS WIND SPEED DATA, AND THE OBJECTIVE AND AUTOMATED FIXES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 221024Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 221200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 19W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TURNING NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NER CENTERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AROUND TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, RESULTING IN TD 19W TURNING NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD, TRANSITING IN THE WAKE OF TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL). INITIALLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE SYSTEM ATTAINING 35 KTS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. HOWEVER, AS TD 19W TRANSITS NORTHEASTWARD AND TOWARD AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW, THE WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, LIKELY TO 25-30 KTS AROUND TAU 36. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR, WHICH WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE CORE OF THE VORTEX. AS A RESULT, THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO 20-25 KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THE TAIL END OF THE WIND FIELD BELONGING TO TYPHOON 17W AND WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN VERTICAL STRUCTURE. DISSIPATION OVER WATER IS EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 72, BUT IS POSSIBLE MUCH EARLIER IF THE VWS AND DRY AIR ERODE THE STRUCTURE OF THE STORM SOONER. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT, AS EVIDENCED BY A 90 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48, WITH ALL MODELS DEPICTING A SIMILAR RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 48, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS A RESULT OF SOME MODELS (GFS, HAFS) PREDICTING DISSIPATION AS EARLY AS TAU 48, WHILE OTHERS (COAMPS-TC AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE) PRESERVE BORDERLINE INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH, BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN 35 KTS, THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION IS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FACTOR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN  254 WDPN31 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.6N 144.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1025 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WITH A SLIGHTLY RAGGED EYE THAT HAS CONTINUED TO WARM OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE EYEWALL WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEFINED CIRRUS FILAMENTS EXPANDING OUTWARD TO THE NORTH, AND IS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. 17W HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, NOW HAVING INTENSIFIED 35 KTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 17W IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 96 KTS AT 221040Z CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 221200Z CIMSS AIDT: 86 KTS AT 221200Z CIMSS D-MINT: 106 KTS AT 221222Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 105 KTS AT 221200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 17W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48. NEAR TAU 48, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER STR POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING COMPLEX WILL KEEP 17W ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 96. THE TIMING OF LANDFALL OVER OKINAWA HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS, AND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR JUST BEFORE TAU 96. AFTERWARD, TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CHINA. A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, TOWARD NORTHERN TAIWAN IS THEN LIKELY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK OF AROUND 130 KTS AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. AFTER TAU 36, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL WEAKEN AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, CAUSING 17W TO START ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES OKINAWA. FURTHER WEAKENING WITHIN THE EAST CHINA SEA IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR INDUCED BY A STRONG RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE OUTLIER BEING NAVGEM, WHICH TRACKS THE VORTEX MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS MEASURED TO BE 160 NM. AFTER TAU 72, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO AROUND 200 NM WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH MAKING A FASTER SOUTHWESTWARD TURN THAN THE EC-AIFS AND EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE ADJUSTED CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND THEN HEDGED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND EC-AIFS THROUGH TAU 120 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT BETWEEN THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS AND THE NON-RI AIDS. THE RI AIDS SHOW A PEAK OF 130-150 KTS AT TAU 36 WHILE HAFS-A ONLY SHOWS A PEAK OF 115 KTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSER TO THE RI AIDS THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO THE EXPECTED HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MODELS THEN AGREE ON STEADY WEAKENING FROM TAU 48 ONWARD AND THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN  404 WDPN32 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.0N 108.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 118 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER NORTHEASTERN VIETNAM. CLOUD TOPS ARE MEASURED TO BE NEARLY -90 C IN SOME AREAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BACH LONG VI REPORTED 29 KTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 221200Z, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ANALYZED TO BE OVERESTIMATING THE CURRENT INTENSITY, LIKELY DUE TO THE VIGOROUS BURSTS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 18W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 221210Z CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 221210Z CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 221016Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 221210Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 18W IS FORECAST TO MAKE A SLOW COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS PLACED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING PATTERN WITH RIDGING TO BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH. IN REALITY THE ACTUAL TRACK OF 18W IS LIKELY TO BE HIGHLY ERRATIC DURING THIS TIME. AFTER TAU 72, 18W IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CHINA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE VORTEX WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THESE FACTORS ARE OFFSET BY THE VERY WARM WATERS WITHIN THE GULF OF TONKIN, WHICH IS FOREACAST TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SOME MODELS, SUCH AS ECMWF, SHOW THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DECREASING AND THE SYSTEM REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. IF THE SHEAR LESSENS, THEN FURTHER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. AS IT STANDS, A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS FORECAST BEFORE 18W IS DRIVEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CHINA. DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED OCCUR AROUND TAU 96, QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT, BUT IT GENERALLY SHOWS A SOUTHWARD TURN THROUGH TAU 48 FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE. GFS SHOWS A TRACK THAT SKIRTS THE COAST OF VIETNAM, AND THEREFORE WEAKENS THE VORTEX MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN ECMWF, WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WATER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF LAND INTERACTION AND AMOUNT OF TIME OVER WATER BETWEEN MODELS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN  724 WDPN32 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.0N 108.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 118 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER NORTHEASTERN VIETNAM. CLOUD TOPS ARE MEASURED TO BE NEARLY -90 C IN SOME AREAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BACH LONG VI REPORTED 29 KTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 221200Z, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ANALYZED TO BE OVERESTIMATING THE CURRENT INTENSITY, LIKELY DUE TO THE VIGOROUS BURSTS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 18W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15- 20 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 221210Z CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 221210Z CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 221016Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 221210Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 18W IS FORECAST TO MAKE A SLOW COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS PLACED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING PATTERN WITH RIDGING TO BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH. IN REALITY THE ACTUAL TRACK OF 18W IS LIKELY TO BE HIGHLY ERRATIC DURING THIS TIME. AFTER TAU 72, 18W IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVEN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CHINA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE VORTEX WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THESE FACTORS ARE OFFSET BY THE VERY WARM WATERS WITHIN THE GULF OF TONKIN, WHICH IS FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SOME MODELS, SUCH AS ECMWF, SHOW THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DECREASING AND THE SYSTEM REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. IF THE SHEAR LESSENS, THEN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. AS IT STANDS, A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS FORECAST BEFORE 18W IS DRIVEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CHINA. DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 96, QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT, BUT IT GENERALLY SHOWS A SOUTHWARD TURN THROUGH TAU 48 FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE. GFS SHOWS A TRACK THAT SKIRTS THE COAST OF VIETNAM, AND THEREFORE WEAKENS THE VORTEX MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN ECMWF, WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WATER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF LAND INTERACTION AND AMOUNT OF TIME OVER WATER BETWEEN MODELS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN  944 WDPN31 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.6N 144.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1025 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AND SHRINKING EYE FEATURE, WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND WARMING CLOUD-TOPS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK. THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE A REMARKABLE TRANSFORMATION IN JUST THE PAST TWO HOURS, FROM HAVING A WELL-DEFINED, IF A BIT RAGGED, EYE FEATURE, TO NOW BARELY HOLDING ONTO AN EXTREMELY SMALL AND ILL-DEFINED EYE, WITH WANING CONVECTION. A 221550Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDES SOME INSIGHT INTO THE MOST LIKELY CAUSE, NAMELY THE ONSET OF AN ERC. THE AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED INNER EYEWALL, CONSISTENT WITH THE EIR IMAGERY AT THAT TIME, AND A STRONG SECONDARY EYEWALL EVIDENT ABOUT 60NM OUTWARD FROM THE INNER. A MOAT IS ALSO EVIDENT WRAPPING UP THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE CORE, ALL OF WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH AN ERC. THE CIMSS M-PERC ERC ONSET PROBABILITY JUMPED UP TO 45 PERCENT BASED ON THIS RECENT DATA. A 221850Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE SAME OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH AN EVEN BETTER DEFINED MOAT, AND SECONDARY EYEWALL AND A MORE DEGRADED INNER EYEWALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ERODING EYE IN THE EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE OVERALL AGREEMENT OF NEARLY ALL SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE OVERALL, WITH WARM SSTS, HIGH (100 KJ PER CM2 OR GREATER) OHC, LOW DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE ERC WILL SERVE TO OFFSET THE OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR-TERM. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 114 KTS AT 221800Z CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 221800Z CIMSS AIDT: 101 KTS AT 221800Z CIMSS D-MINT: 118 KTS AT 221610Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 116 KTS AT 221800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: NORTHWESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL; MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR; EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SAUDEL) IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST, CONNECTING WITH A SECOND STR CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 60 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. BEGINNING AT TAU 60 HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE RIDGING PATTERN, SPECIFICALLY IN REGARDS TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL IMPACT THE RIDGE. THE GFS DEPICTS A MUCH STRONGER AND DEEPER TROUGH WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 84, WHICH RESULTS IN A RAPID SLOWDOWN OF TY 17W AS IT CROSSES THE RYUKYUS BEFORE TURNING WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OVER CHINA BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AFTER TAU 96. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DEPICTS A MUCH WEAKER, NEARLY NON-EXISTENT, TROUGH WHICH DOES NOT BREAK THE RIDGE, RESULTING IN A FASTER TRACK WHICH EVENTUALLY CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXPERIMENTAL AI MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SCENARIO. TY 17W WILL SLOW DOWN AFTER TAU 60 AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE, BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE RYUKYU CHAIN IN THE VICINITY OF OKINAWA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. THE SYSTEM COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN CHINA BY TAU 96, AND BEGINS A TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE LIKELY ONSET OF AN ERC WILL RESULT IN A SMALL AMOUNT OF WEAKENING OR MAINTENANCE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. ONCE THE ERC IS COMPLETE, THE SYSTEM WILL RESUME INTENSIFICATION AS IT PASSES OVER A POOL OF HIGH OHC WATERS, WHILE MAINTAINING STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN TERMS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, WITH A RESULTANT REDUCTION IN OUTFLOW ALOFT. BY TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN SHEAR, ACCELERATING THE WEAKENING TREND BEGUN 12 HOURS EARLIER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN FROM THIS POINT ONWARDS, THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN A STRONG TYPHOON AS IT PASSES OKINAWA. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA, CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING TY 17W TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 155NM BETWEEN JGSM ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE AND THE CLUSTER OF GFS, GEFS AND THE AI MODELS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN (MODIFIED TO DISREGARD NAVGEM), AND THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC TRACKER, JUST SOUTH OF THE AI-GFS CLUSTER NOTED ABOVE, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST, THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, PRIMARILY IN THE ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION. ECMWF IS BY FAR THE FASTEST OF ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE, SHOWING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN CHINA BY TAU 120. THE AI-GFS CLUSTER ARE THE SLOWEST, REMAINING EAST OF 124E LONGITUDE BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODIFIED CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE HAFS-A DEPICTING STEADY WEAKENING AFTER TAU 12 TO TAU 96 BEFORE FLATTENING OUT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE MEAN, AND THE JTWC FORECAST. OF NOTE, THE RIDE, RI25 AND RI30 RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS ARE TRIGGERED WITH THIS RUN, THOUGH WITH THE ONSET OF THE ERC, APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN