572 

FZAK80 PAFC 162247

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

247 PM AKDT Friday 16 October 2026





FORECAST VALID…Wednesday 21 October 2026





ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE…High.





SYNOPSIS…A near gale force low enters the western Chukchi Sea late 

on Saturday. The low passes north of Wrangel Island before weakening 

as it travels northeastward across the Beaufort Sea and High Arctic 

through Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday see a return to light winds 

over the ice pack.





-BEAUFORT SEA-





PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 45 to 80 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 45 to 80 nm-



Ice covered.







The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from near 71 14'N 154 

53'W to 70 2'N 144 49'W to 71 11'N 145 35'W to 71 0'N 150 10'W to 71 

43'N 154 54'W. The ice edge is a mix of new and multiyear pack ice. 

New ice is present behind barrier islands and within protected bays.

	



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 7 nm north of Ikiak to 30 nm west of Kaktovik to 75 

nm northwest of Kaktovik to 25 nm north-northwest of Oliktok Point 

to 25 nm north of Ikiak. The ice edge is a mix of new and multiyear 

pack ice. New ice is present behind barrier islands and within 

protected bays.







FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. 





Moderate northeasterly flow on Friday will degrade the southern 

margins of the main ice pack and compact coastal ice behind barrier 

islands and within protected bays. A shift to southwesterly winds 

Saturday through Monday may fracture and degrade the developing 

coastal ice and cause the ice pack to retreat northeastward 5-10 

nm/day Sunday and Monday. Light winds Tuesday into Wednesday will 

encourage a return to extensive ice growth within and around the 

pack.





-CHUKCHI SEA-





PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-



Ice covered.





PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-



Ice free.





The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from near 71 26'N 156 

27'W to 71 12'N 154 53'W to 71 44'N 154 54'W to 70 57'N 161 7'W to 

71 58'N 168 52'W to 69 56'N 178 4'E. The ice edge is a mix of new 

and multiyear pack ice. New ice is present behind barrier islands.

	                                        

From land-based points in Alaska, the main edge in the Chukchi Sea 

extends from 3 nm north of Nuvuk to 7 nm north of Ikiak to 25 nm 

north of Ikiak to 40 nm north-northeast of Icy Cape to 160 nm 

northwest of Icy Cape to 325 nm west-northwest of Cape Lisburne. The 

ice edge is a mix of new and multiyear pack ice. New ice is present 

behind barrier islands.







FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. 





Winds over the ice edge are mostly light and variable through 

Saturday. Near gale force westerly winds develop Sunday with a 

passing low before weakening Monday through Wednesday. A tongue of 

young ice with traces of multiyear ice currently extends off the 

main pack over Hannah Shoal and is beginning to encroach on 

navigational waters. Persistent westerly winds will partially 

degrade this ice but continue pushing it into navigational waters. 

Expect the ice edge to drift 15-20 nm southeastward by Wednesday. 





-BERING SEA-





PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters-

PKZ816-South Side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North Side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-





Ice free.

        





                                                

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is high. 









-COOK INLET-





PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-

PZK741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-









Ice free.









FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. 









&&

 

Jewell