314 

FXUS01 KWBC 240622

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

220 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026



Valid 12Z Mon Aug 24 2026 - 12Z Wed Aug 26 2026



...Hazardous record-breaking heat continues across the

south-central U.S. into the Southwest this week...



...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the

Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Upper Midwest, and

Southeast through Tuesday...





A strong ridge anchored over the Southwest and south-central U.S.

will continue to bring hazardous heat across the Southern Plains

and Lower Mississippi Valley, and gradually into the Southwest by

mid-week. Daytime highs will reach 100-110 degrees across the

southern Plains, while portions of the Southwest can reach up to

115. Some areas are even expected to break dozens of high/low

daily temperatures through the week. With the combination of well

above normal temperatures and the high humidity, heat indices will

remain elevated. Additionally, the warm overnight temperatures

will provide limited recovery, leading to widespread Major to

Extreme HeatRisk through the week. See the latest Key Messages

linked at the bottom of the discussion for more information.



The western periphery of the ridge will remain a corridor for

monsoonal moisture extending northward across the Four Corners and

Intermountain West/Rockies. Unstable airmass will interact with

shortwave energy and the frontal boundary, leading to scattered

thunderstorms across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and

central Rockies. The strongest storms will be capable of producing

severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and flash flooding through

Tuesday, especially over areas that have sufficient instability.

Further north, a progressive westerly flow will persist across the

northern Rockies/Plains and upper Midwest. As the frontal boundary

moves eastward, it will interact with warm unstable air,

supporting repeated organized showers and thunderstorms across the

Rockies/Plains into the Upper Midwest. Locally heavy rainfall and

severe thunderstorms will be possible with stronger storms through

Tuesday, especially over the central/southern High Plains.



Meanwhile, the surface low and associated frontal boundary will

continue to exit eastward from the Northeast, but shortwave

troughs will continue to produce lingering showers and

thunderstorms through Monday across the Lower Great Lakes and New

England. Further south, the trailing frontal boundary will drape

across the Southeast into the southern Plains, bringing chances

for showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. As the boundary

interacts with warm moist air and sufficient instability,

organized storm cells may develop. The strongest storms may

produce damaging winds, severe thunderstorms, and localized flash

flooding/excessive rainfall, especially along the Gulf Coast,

Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast Coast.







Oudit





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php



Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png









$$










438 

FXHW01 KWNH 240647

PMDHI 



Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

247 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026



Valid 00Z Tue 25 Aug 2026 - 00Z Tue 01 Sep 2026



...Tropical Depression Moke passing south of the Islands...



Passage today of Tropical Depression Moke several hundred miles 

to the south of the islands favors lingering strong gusty winds 

over the state within tightened pressure gradients between surface

high pressure north of the state. A deep plume of moisture north 

of Moke will fuel additional rainfall. With Moke rains coming 

quickly on the heels of Lala, life-threatening flooding and 

mudslides remain a concern. Even as the system continues west and

weakens, guidance shows an elongated stretch of deeper moisture 

may remain across the islands, potentially yielding local 

downpours into Tuesday. Guidance agrees to show drier conditions 

with a return to more typical easterly trades with a limited 

windward terrain focusing showers pattern the rest of the week.



Schichtel



$$