353 

AWUS01 KWNH 241101

FFGMPD

MSZ000-ARZ000-241700-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1120

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

700 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026



Areas affected...Arkansas



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 241059Z - 241700Z



Summary...Flash flooding is possible this morning across portions

of central Arkansas as repeating showers and thunderstorms move

through. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches in a short duration may

cause isolated instances of flash flooding.



Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms this morning continue to

blossom over portions of Arkansas, moving from the northwest to

southeast on the periphery of the upper ridge that is centered

over central Texas. This activity is being fueled by the lingering

nocturnal low level jet and is positioned within an axis of

relatively higher moisture, characterized by PWs around 1.5-1.75

inches.



Over the next several hours, this activity should progress

southeast. However, upstream additional convection is forming and

will likely track over the similar area. The most recent runs of

the HRRR and other hi-res guidance is in reasonable agreement with

the placement of the heaviest rainfall axis positioned in a stripe

from northern to southeast Arkansas, indicating 1-2 inches likely

with some embedded cores of 2-3 inches through about 17Z today.

Rainfall rates with the strongest cores could approach 2"/hr.



Despite the drier soils, the intense rain rates combined with the

repeating/training nature of the activity suggests at least a

lower end threat of flash flooding for the more vulnerable

locations. After about 17Z, convection should begin to wane and

also move out of the area.





Taylor



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...TSA...



ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   36489251 36149183 35769151 35079109 34669082 

            34039059 33529063 33269125 34159242 34959289 

            35529317 36229341