572 

AWUS01 KWNH 240820

FFGMPD

NDZ000-241218-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1119

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

419 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026



Areas affected...portions of northern/northeastern North Dakota



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 240818Z - 241218Z



Summary...Spotty/isolated flash flood risk will continue across

the discussion area for the next 3-4 hours (through 12Z/7a central.



Discussion...A band of deep convection was moving very slowly

eastward at around 10-15 knots per radar mosaic imagery.  The band

was collocated with strong low-level convergence on the nose of a

~30 kt low-level jet across central ND, with convection rooted in

the mid-levels where ~6.5 C/km lapse rates exist.  The airmass is

also characterized by 1.5+ inch PW values that were combining with

slow storm motions to foster areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates (near

Rugby and near the international border at the intersection of ND

14 and ND 5).  While these rates were impressive (and approaching

2.5 inch FFG thresholds in spots), antecedent dry conditions and

low soil moistures (per NASA Sport) were likely limiting the

extent of flash flood potential across the region.



These trends are expected to continue for the next 3-4 hours or

so.  SPC Mesoanalysis depict that the low-level convergence

supporting ongoing convection will slacken gradually this morning

as flow weakens to around 15 knots or so.  Downstream instability

values are weaker too (~6 C/km lapse rates, negligible

surface-based instability), also supporting eventual weakening. 

The ongoing flash flood threat should remain isolated through

12Z/7a central.



Cook



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...



ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...



LAT...LON   49050049 48949934 48909822 48219786 47479802 

            47729990 48240082