848 

AWUS01 KWNH 191943

FFGMPD

LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-200141-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0192

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

342 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026



Areas affected...north/northeast Texas, southwestern Arkansas,

northern Louisiana



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 191941Z - 200141Z



Summary...A slow-moving complex of thunderstorms will continue to

produce local areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates.  Isolated flash

flood issues are possible -- especially in low-lying and urban

areas -- through 0130Z/830p central.



Discussion...A mature, linear convective complex was making slow

southward movement across north/northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex

region over the past hour.  The slow movement was occurring due to

weak steering flow aloft, slow propagation and expansion of a cold

pool upstream of convection, and continued, renewed updrafts along

the leading edge of the gust front.  The airmass downstream of the

complex was strongly unstable (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and weakly

inhibited (negligible cap).  These factors, along with the

presence of a weak mid-level wave over east Texas, should continue

to support scattered convection along and ahead of the complex for

the next several hours.



Slow movement and propagation has led to areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr

rain rates at times, with isolated 2 inch/hr spots near the most

persistent convection.  This is generally lower that FFG

thresholds areawide, suggesting that any flash flood threat should

be tied to sensitive/urban terrain and mostly isolated in nature. 

Occasional cell mergers should result in brief local peaks in rain

rates - especially with continued heating and ascent from the

mid-level wave near the region.  Convection should reach the I-20

corridor in northeast Texas/north Louisiana over the next 2-4

hours (2130-2330Z).



Cook



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   35059191 33339167 32279193 31719240 30909412 

            30699712 32089801 33139811 33669680 33679670 

            34009564 34329428 34959291