232 FNUS22 KWNS 151922 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN L.A. COUNTY...VENTURA COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY... ...Southern California... An mid/upper low just west of the Baja Peninsula within a broader upper-level ridge over the western U.S., combined with a 1038 mb surface high pressure moving into the central U.S. will continue to support dry, offshore flow across southern CA through D2/Friday. A zone of sustained 20-30 mph winds and gusts up to 50 mph is still expected across western L.A. county into Ventura and far southeastern Santa Barbara Friday morning before slowly diminishing Friday afternoon and evening. Despite RH trending higher through Friday (closer to 20% daytime minimum across L.A./Ventura counties), stronger winds and drying fuels will still present a Critical fire weather threat. Elevated fire weather highlights stretch westward towards the central CA coast owing to a reduced offshore wind magnitude, although minimum RH values of 15% should be common. ...Sierra Nevada, Sacramento Valley into the North Bay area... Residual easterly/northeasterly downslope winds of 10-15 mph (locally 20 mph in channeled terrain) across the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada are expected Friday. The combination of poor overnight RH recoveries with minimum daytime RH near 10%, dry fuels and breezy east-northeast winds supports addition of elevated highlights across this region. Dry and breezy conditions including north to northeast winds of 10-15 mph and RH falling ing into the 10-15% range in valley locations will affect portions of the Sacramento Valley, Napa Valley and North Bay areas Friday where Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Lower Mississippi River Valley and ArkLaTex Region... A dry, post-frontal air mass will push into the Deep South beginning D2/Friday. Northerly winds of 10-15 mph with higher gusts amid RH reductions as low as 25% will promote elevated fire weather conditions over receptive fuels across portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and ArkLaTex Region. Elevated highlights were expanded slightly eastward to include central MS accounting for latest model guidance consensus and generally drier fuelscape where ERCs reach into the 80-90th percentile range. ..Williams.. 10/15/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026/ ...Synopsis... An amplified upper trough will progress over the eastern CONUS as a surface low departs from New England. A substantial cold front will sweep across the southeastern CONUS on Day 2/Friday, with dry post-frontal flow bringing fire weather concerns to portions of the lower MS River Valley. High pressure building in behind the cold front along with a mid-level cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula will continue to support offshore flow and a fire weather threat across portions of CA. ...Southern California... An offshore wind event will continue through Day 2/Friday across much of southern CA, maintaining an Elevated fire weather threat. A mid/upper cut-off low over the Baja Peninsula will aid in deep layer easterly flow over the region, supporting surface winds of 20-30 mph (gusts up to 40 mph in the valleys, possibly up to 60 mph in the mountains) amid 10-15% RH. The long duration of these conditions combined with poor overnight humidity recoveries will allow fuels to become increasingly more receptive. Easterly winds will increase to 15-25 mph across the southern Sierra Nevada foothills into the lower San Joaquin Valley amid minimum RH values of 15-20%. The offshore pressure gradient will strengthen early in the forecast period, likely at its final peak before gradually weakening into Day 3/Saturday. A corridor of sustained 20-30 mph winds and gusts up to 50 mph are expected across western L.A. county into Ventura and far southeastern Santa Barbara county during the early morning hours of Day 2/Friday, supporting the introduction of Critical highlights. ...Lower Mississippi River Valley and ArkLaTex Region... A dry, post-frontal northerly wind will impact much of the Southeast as surface high pressure builds into central Plains/Midwest. Dry and receptive fuels remain across the lower Mississippi Valley where drought proliferates, with ERC values ranging from the 80-90th percentiles. Northerly sustained winds of 10-15 mph (perhaps up to 20 mph in localized areas) and RH as low as 25% will promote an Elevated fire weather threat for a few afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$