326 FXUS06 KWBC 161902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Fri October 16 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 22 - 26 2026 There is good agreement in the dynamical models regarding the 500-hPa pattern across North America during the 6-10 day period. The 0z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensembles depict anomalous mid-level ridging across the eastern U.S. resulting in a +180 meter positive height anomaly center over Ontario and Quebec in the manual height blend, and above-normal heights across most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Troughing near the southeastern coast early in the period tilts heights closer to normal across the southwestern Atlantic into Florida. A transient shortwave trough is forecast over the western CONUS early in the period, with this feature lifting out across the Great Plains around the middle of the period. There is better agreement compared to yesterday regarding renewed troughing developing near or off the California Coast by day-10 resulting in near-normal heights for the period as a whole over the western third of the CONUS. A transitional pattern is predicted over Alaska, with troughs over eastern Alaska and the Bering Sea, followed by a trend toward more ridging and subsequently above-normal heights over much of the state. Near-normal heights are forecast for Hawaii. Above-normal temperatures are strongly favored across nearly all of the CONUS from the Rockies to the East Coast, with probabilities exceeding 80 percent over parts of the Upper Midwest. Conversely, near- to below-normal temperature odds are elevated west of the Rockies underneath troughing and due to the influence of increased cloud cover and precipitation. A transient mid-level pattern favors increased chances of near-normal temperatures across most of Interior and northern Mainland Alaska, with slightly higher chances for above-normal temperatures over southeastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska, along with southwestern Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, tied to expanding ridging later in the period. Above-normal temperature probabilities are increased over Hawaii, consistent with the reforecast consolidation. The primary feature in terms of enhanced precipitation is predicted to be surface low pressure developing across the Southwest and tracking across the Rockies at the beginning of the period. Additional moisture from Hurricane Trudy across the tropical East Pacific may also be indirectly entrained into this system. Given the typically lower precipitation climatologies in this region, high probabilities for above-normal precipitation are posted across much of the Interior West into the Great Plains, and diminishing in magnitude farther east toward the Mississippi Valley. Farther to the east, under the influence of ridging and surface high pressure, probabilities for below-normal precipitation are increased across the Northeast, Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and extending south to the Gulf Coast. These higher probabilities are also supported by the analogs, reforecast and uncalibrated ECMWF, and low 6-10 day precipitation totals in the 0z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensembles. Troughing and a potential surface low off the Atlantic Coast tilts odds to near- to slightly above-normal precipitation along most of the Eastern Seaboard into Florida. Elevated chances of above-normal precipitation are favored for most of Alaska tied to increased troughing early in the period and an active surface low track across the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. Above-normal precipitation is favored for Hawaii. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out 5, due to very good model agreement regarding the amplification of mid-level features across the CONUS, offset slightly by a more transient pattern over the North Pacific. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 24 - 30 2026 Dynamical models generally persist mid-level ridging across the eastern U.S. longer into the week-2 period compared to yesterday. This is further reflected by a +120 meter positive height anomaly center near the Ontario/Quebec border in the manual 500-hPa height blend, with above-normal heights extending throughout much of the eastern half of the CONUS. A weakness remains predicted underneath this ridge leading to near-normal heights over the southwestern Atlantic into Florida mainly tied to enhanced troughing early in the period. Troughing over the Southwest is forecast to lift out over the Great Plains early in the period, although additional troughing possibly developing near the West Coast favors near- to below-normal heights in the manual blend across much of the western CONUS. Ridging and associated positive height anomalies are forecast across the northeastern Pacific and spreading throughout much of Alaska, with potential for troughing to redevelop over the Bering Sea late in the period, most evidenced in the GEFS and Canadian ensembles. Near-normal heights remain forecast for Hawaii. Increased chances of above-normal temperatures are forecast to persist east of the Rockies, with higher probabilities expanded in coverage compared to yesterday due to a greater persistence of ridging. Weak probabilities of below-normal temperatures are highlighted over the Interior West underneath troughing and considering potential wet conditions and higher elevation snow cover across the Rockies. Above-normal temperature chances are slightly increased across coastal southern California into extreme southern Arizona. A warming trend is forecast to continue across much of Alaska tied to building positive mid-level height anomalies, with above-normal temperatures favored across the state. Above-normal temperatures remain likely for Hawaii, consistent with above-normal sea surface temperatures in the area. Above-normal precipitation chances are increased across much of the western and central CONUS tied to surface low pressure early in the period along with a potential increase in Pacific flow as troughing develops near the West Coast. Analogs and uncalibrated 0z ECMWF guidance continue to support increased chances for below-normal precipitation across the interior East southward to the central Gulf Coast and northeastward to northern New England, underneath enhanced ridging early in the period, with near- to above-normal precipitation odds increased across most of the Coastal Plain tied to a potential surface low over the western Atlantic. Above-normal precipitation is favored for much of Alaska consistent with an active storm track. Above normal precipitation remains favored in Hawaii. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, Improving model agreement regarding a more persistent mid-level pattern early in the period, offset by increasing uncertainty toward the end of week-2. FORECASTER: Thomas Collow Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on November 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20151022 - 19981025 - 20061008 - 20001024 - 20071029 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20061007 - 20151022 - 20071029 - 20001023 - 19981022 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Oct 22 - 26 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Oct 24 - 30 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A UTAH B A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A BTENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$