451 FXUS06 KWBC 231902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Sun August 23 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 29 - SEP 02, 2026 Today's numerical models predict a high amplitude mid-level pattern across the higher latitudes of North America and vicinity and a moderately amplified pattern farther to the south across the CONUS. Strong anomalous 500-hpa ridges are forecast over the Aleutians and over north-central Canada while anomalous troughs are predicted off the coast of southwestern Canada and well north of the Alaska Mainland. Farther to the south, anomalous ridging is forecast over the southwestern CONUS while a trough is forecast over the Northeast. The ridge in the Southwest is forecast to weaken throughout the period, peaking in strength around day 6. Meanwhile the trough off the coast of southwestern Canada is forecast to reload and strengthen toward the middle of the period. Downstream, the trough over the Northeast is expected to persist through the period. Modest mid-level height anomalies are forecast across most Mainland Alaska, sandwiched between ridges to its east and west and troughs to its north and south. However, strong positive height anomalies are forecast across the Aleutians, associated with the anomalous ridge there. Generally near to slightly above normal heights are forecast across Hawaii during the period. Above normal temperatures are favored across much of the CONUS, underneath predicted near to above normal mid-level heights. Confidence is very high (greater than 80 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across the Southern High Plains and parts of the adjacent Southwest, near the center of the predicted anomalous mid-level ridge. In contrast, a slight tilt toward below normal temperatures is indicated for the Pacific Northwest and adjacent northern California, associated with a nearby trough and an associated frontal boundary. Near normal temperatures are favored across parts of the Great Lakes, Northeast, and the northern Ohio Valley, associated with a predicted trough. A small area of slightly enhanced chances of below normal temperatures is indicated for parts of northern Michigan, near or slightly behind the predicted trough axis. Much of western and northern Alaska tilts cold, underneath anomalous northerly mid-level flow. However, above normal temperatures are more likely across parts of the Aleutians, due to anomalous ridging. Near normal temperatures are favored for Southeast Alaska and parts of the eastern Mainland, underneath slightly anomalous southeasterly mid-level flow. Hawaii is likely to be warmer than normal, as SSTs near and to the south of the state are currently above normal. Expansive ridging favors below normal precipitation from the southern Plains to the southern Rockies and adjacent areas of the Southwest. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Pacific Northwest and adjacent areas of the northern Rockies and northern California, ahead of a trough forecast offshore. Above normal precipitation is favored along the Eastern Seaboard and adjacent areas associated with a predicted trough over the Northeast. A frontal boundary and areas of surface low pressure are predicted early in the period over the East Coast, increasing precipitation chances. An area of modestly enhanced above normal precipitation chances is indicated over the Corn Belt and surrounding areas, associated with a frontal boundary. Above normal precipitation is favored for much of Alaska underneath predicted cyclonic flow. However, near normal precipitation is favored across parts of the southwestern Mainland, due to the potential for low level offshore flow behind predicted surface low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska. Above normal precipitation is modestly favored for Hawaii, as typical trade wind weather returns in the wake of Tropical Storm Moke. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Below Average, 2 out of 5, due to conflicting precipitation guidance. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 31 - SEP 06, 2026 During the week-2 period, strong ridging over the Aleutians is expected to weaken considerably, potentially allowing a trough to the north of the Mainland to slide southward across northwestern parts of the state. Downstream ridging over north-central Canada is forecast to continue well into week-2, becoming the most dominant high latitude feature during the period. Farther to the south, the trough over the coast of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to persist at least through the middle of the period. Ridging across the southern High Plains is expected to continue but weaken considerably. The trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast is forecast to modestly strengthen near the middle of week-2. Near to slightly above normal mid-level heights are forecast to persist across Hawaii. Above normal temperatures are likely to persist across a large portion of the central and southern Lower 48 states as 500-hpa heights are expected to remain near or above normal across most areas. Confidence remains high (greater than 70 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across the southern High Plains and adjacent areas of the Southwest due to persistent ridging. Near to below normal temperatures are favored for northern California, Pacific Northwest, as well as the northeastern quadrant of the CONUS, due to nearby troughs. Much of western and central Mainland Alaska tilts cold, due to the potential for increased troughing as a ridge over the Aleutians weakens. Above normal temperatures are slightly favored across parts of Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the southeastern Mainland, ahead of the predicted trough. Above normal temperatures are also favored for parts of the Aleutians underneath the weakening ridge. Above normal temperatures remain likely across Hawaii as SSTs near and to the south of the state are largely above normal. Confidence is lower than normal regarding the precipitation forecast across much of the country due to weak or conflicting guidance. Teleconnections from nearby mid-level features were utilized to inform the forecast, particularly from the ridge over north-central Canada and the troughs over the Northeast and near the Pacific Northwest. Collectively this guidance supports below normal precipitation across much of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, and adjacent areas of the Southeast. The northeastern and northwestern CONUS tilt wet, associated with nearby troughs. Much of the Great Lakes region and surrounding areas tilt dry as surface high pressure builds in behind the Northeast trough. A weak tilt toward above normal precipitation is forecast for parts of the Southwest, supported by dynamical model guidance. Above normal precipitation is favored across most of Alaska underneath mean cyclonic mid-level flow. Above normal precipitation is indicated across Hawaii, reflecting uncertainty in the tropics. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below Average, 2 out of 5, due to weak or conflicting guidance among precipitation tools. FORECASTER: Scott H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on September 17. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20220811 - 20240901 - 20240803 - 20170804 - 20240906 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20240830 - 20100803 - 20220810 - 20250905 - 20160823 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Aug 29 - Sep 02, 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Aug 31 - Sep 06, 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$