904 FNUS86 KEKA 152105 FWLEKA ECCDA DISCUSSIONS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 205 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2026 ECC001-161515- FORTUNA DISPATCH- DISCUSSION FOR FORTUNA DISPATCH 205 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2026 A WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES. INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL HIT THE 90S TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. RECOVERIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY POOR TONIGHT ALONG MID AND UPPER SLOPES. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD ALONG INTERIOR RIDGES TODAY WITH STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WINDS IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY. WIND AND DRY AIR WILL CREATE LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WITH MORE MODERATE FIRE DANGER ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN FRIDAY BUT LEAVE BEHIND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR WITH RH NEAR 10 PERCENT. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND. $$ ECC006-161515- HOWARD FOREST DISPATCH- DISCUSSION FOR HOWARD FOREST DISPATCH 205 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2026 A WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES. INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL HIT THE 90S TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. RECOVERIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY POOR TONIGHT ALONG MID AND UPPER SLOPES. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BUILD ALONG INTERIOR RIDGES TODAY WITH STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WINDS IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY. WIND AND DRY AIR WILL CREATE LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WITH MORE MODERATE FIRE DANGER ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN FRIDAY BUT LEAVE BEHIND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR WITH RH NEAR 10 PERCENT. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND. $$  557 FNUS86 KMTR 152113 FWLMTR ECCDA Discussions National Weather Service SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 213 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ##################################################################### ## ## ## Discussions from the latest FWF below ## ## ## ##################################################################### ...Discussion from SFOFWFMTR... Offshore winds continue to drive warm and dry conditions leading to elevated fire weather concerns across our region. The North Bay Interior Mountains specifically will see the strongest winds which has led to a Red Flag Warning from 10PM tonight to 11AM Friday morning across northern Napa County and northwest Sonoma County. Lower elevations may see wind gusts up to 40 MPH while locations above 3000ft especially exposed gaps and peaks, experiencing gusts up to 60 MPH. ...Discussion from SFOFWFEKA... A warming and drying trend continues. Interior valleys will hit the 90s today with minimum RH less than 20 percent. Recoveries will be especially poor tonight along mid and upper slopes. Moderate northeast winds will build along interior ridges today with stronger and more widespread winds in eastern Lake County. Wind and dry air will create localized critical fire weather in eastern and southern Lake County with more moderate fire danger elsewhere. Winds will generally weaken Friday but leave behind exceptionally dry air with RH near 10 percent. A cold front arrives this weekend leading to a cooling and moistening trend. ##################################################################### ## ## ## Complete a discussion for each ECCDA segment below ## ## When done click transmit, product sent as KMTRFWLMTR ## ## ## ##################################################################### ECC010-160915- St Helena ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Marin and Sonoma and Napa Counties 213 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Offshore winds continue to drive warm and dry conditions leading to elevated fire weather concerns across our region. The North Bay Interior Mountains specifically will see the strongest winds which has led to a Red Flag Warning from 10PM tonight to 11AM Friday morning across northern Napa County and northwest Sonoma County. Lower elevations may see wind gusts up to 40 MPH while locations above 3000ft especially exposed gaps and peaks, experiencing gusts up to 60 MPH. $$ ECC014-160915- Morgan Hill ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Alameda and Contra Costa and Santa Clara Counties 213 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Offshore winds continue to drive warm and dry conditions leading to elevated fire weather concerns across our region. The North Bay Interior Mountains specifically will see the strongest winds which has led to a Red Flag Warning from 10PM tonight to 11AM Friday morning across northern Napa County and northwest Sonoma County. Lower elevations may see wind gusts up to 40 MPH while locations above 3000ft especially exposed gaps and peaks, experiencing gusts up to 60 MPH. $$ ECC013-160915- Felton ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Santa Cruz and San Mateo Counties 213 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Offshore winds continue to drive warm and dry conditions leading to elevated fire weather concerns across our region. The North Bay Interior Mountains specifically will see the strongest winds which has led to a Red Flag Warning from 10PM tonight to 11AM Friday morning across northern Napa County and northwest Sonoma County. Lower elevations may see wind gusts up to 40 MPH while locations above 3000ft especially exposed gaps and peaks, experiencing gusts up to 60 MPH. $$ ECC018-160915- Monterey ECC Dispatch- DISCUSSION FOR Monterey and San Benito County 213 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Offshore winds continue to drive warm and dry conditions leading to elevated fire weather concerns across our region. The North Bay Interior Mountains specifically will see the strongest winds which has led to a Red Flag Warning from 10PM tonight to 11AM Friday morning across northern Napa County and northwest Sonoma County. Lower elevations may see wind gusts up to 40 MPH while locations above 3000ft especially exposed gaps and peaks, experiencing gusts up to 60 MPH. $$  702 FNUS86 KMFR 152118 FWLMFR ECCDA Discussions for Yreka and Modoc California Dispatch Areas NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 218 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ECC002-161530- West Yreka- Discussion for Western Klamath 218 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Breezy easterly winds tonight into Friday morning over upper slopes and ridges... ...Moderate to locally poor ridge top RH recoveries through Saturday morning... .DISCUSSION...Very warm and dry weather persists into Friday with easterly offshore flow. This will bring moderate to locally poor ridgetop RH recoveries through Saturday morning. Very low humidity is expected Friday afternoon with some single digit RHs possible in NorCal and east of the Cascades. Cooling is expected area wide this weekend. Low pressure offshore brings low to modest rain chances early next week, but at least expect further cooling with higher humidity. $$ ECC102-161530- East Yreka- Discussion for Eastern Klamath 218 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Breezy easterly winds tonight into Friday morning over upper slopes and ridges... ...Moderate to locally poor ridge top RH recoveries through Saturday morning... .DISCUSSION...Very warm and dry weather persists into Friday with easterly offshore flow. This will bring moderate to locally poor ridgetop RH recoveries through Saturday morning. Very low humidity is expected Friday afternoon with some single digit RHs possible in NorCal and east of the Cascades. Cooling is expected area wide this weekend. Low pressure offshore brings low to modest rain chances early next week, but at least expect further cooling with higher humidity. $$ ECC003-161530- Alturas- Discussion for Modoc 218 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Breezy easterly winds tonight into Friday morning over upper slopes and ridges... ...Moderate to locally poor ridge top RH recoveries through Saturday morning... .DISCUSSION...Very warm and dry weather persists into Friday with easterly offshore flow. This will bring moderate to locally poor ridgetop RH recoveries through Saturday morning. Very low humidity is expected Friday afternoon with some single digit RHs possible in NorCal and east of the Cascades. Cooling is expected area wide this weekend. Low pressure offshore brings low to modest rain chances early next week, but at least expect further cooling with higher humidity. $$  600 FNUS86 KSTO 152158 FWLSTO ECCDA DISCUSSIONS FOR CALIFORNIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 258 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2026 ECC005-161600- SHASTA-TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST- DISCUSSION FOR REDDING ECC DISPATCH 258 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2026 ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE DISTRICT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. THE MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE THIS ECCDA ZONE. WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS PROBABLE IN SOME AREAS. A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER WEATHER AND IMPROVING HUMIDITIES ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK ALONGSIDE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES HEADING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. $$ ECC007-161600- MENDOCINO NATIONAL FOREST, SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY, AND DELTA- DISCUSSION FOR WILLOWS ECC DISPATCH 258 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2026 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY... ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY DUE TO DUE TO GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY, ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR, EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL FROM NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH, LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS WITH SINGLE DIGITS, AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS PROBABLE IN SOME PLACES. A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER WEATHER AND IMPROVING HUMIDITIES ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK ALONGSIDE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES HEADING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. $$ ECC008-161600- RED BLUFF AND OROVILLE- DISCUSSION FOR RED BLUFF AND OROVILLE ECC DISPATCH 258 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2026 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY DUE TO GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS... ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH FRIDAY, DUE TO GUSTY EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AND VERY POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS PROBABLE IN THE SIERRA. A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER WEATHER AND IMPROVING HUMIDITIES ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK ALONGSIDE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES HEADING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. $$ ECC011-161600- TAHOE NATIONAL FOREST- DISCUSSION FOR GRASS VALLEY ECC DISPATCH 258 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2026 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY DUE TO GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS... ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH FRIDAY, DUE TO GUSTY EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AND VERY POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS PROBABLE IN THE SIERRA. A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER WEATHER AND IMPROVING HUMIDITIES ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK ALONGSIDE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES HEADING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. $$ ECC015-161600- STANISLAUS NATIONAL FOREST- DISCUSSION FOR SAN ANDREAS ECC DISPATCH 258 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2026 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY DUE TO GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS... ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH FRIDAY, DUE TO GUSTY EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AND VERY POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS PROBABLE IN THE SIERRA. A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD COOLER WEATHER AND IMPROVING HUMIDITIES ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK ALONGSIDE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES HEADING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. $$