142 

FXUS24 KWNC 141323

PMDENS

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

900 AM EDT Thu 14 May 2026



NOTE: figures mentioned in the discussion are available on

the internet at HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch



Synopsis: El Nino is likely to emerge soon (82percent chance in

May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter

2026-27 (96percent chance in December 2026-February 2027).



In the past month, ENSO-neutral conditions continued, as

indicated by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in

the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The latest

weekly Nino-3.4 index value was +0.4degC, with the westernmost

(Nino-4) and easternmost (Nino-1+2) indices at +0.5degC and

+1.0degC, respectively (Fig. 2). The equatorial subsurface

temperature index (average from 180deg-100degW) increased

for the sixth consecutive month (Fig. 3), with widespread,

significantly above-average subsurface temperatures across

the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). Westerly wind anomalies

were observed over the western equatorial Pacific at low

levels and were evident over the central and east-central

Pacific at upper levels. Convection was near average on the

equator near the Date Line and was suppressed around Indonesia

(Fig. 5). Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system

reflected ENSO-neutral conditions.



The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average,

including the NCEP CFSv2 (Fig. 6), favors El Nino to form by

next month and persist through Northern Hemisphere winter

2026-27. While confidence in the occurrence of El Nino

has increased since last month, there is still substantial

uncertainty in the peak strength of El Nino, with no strength

categorization exceeding a 37percent chance (Figs. 7 &

8). The strongest El Nino events in the historical record

are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling

through the summer, and it remains to be seen whether this

occurs in 2026. Stronger El Nino events do not ensure strong

impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely (see CPC

outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary,

El Nino is likely to emerge soon (82percent chance in May-July

2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27

(96percent chance in December 2026 - February 2027).



This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather

Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric

conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction

Center website (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert

Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available

here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11

June 2026. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly

ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail

message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.







$$