644 

FXUS24 KWNC 081402

PMDENS

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

900 AM EDT Thu 08 Jan 2026



NOTE: figures mentioned in the discussion are available on

the internet at HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



ENSO Alert System Status: La Nina Advisory



Synopsis: La Nina persists, followed by a 75percent chance

of a transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March

2026. ENSO-neutral is likely through at least Northern

Hemisphere late spring 2026.



In December 2025, La Nina was reflected in the continuation

of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the

east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The

latest weekly Nino-3.4 index value was -0.5degC, with the

Nino-3 and Nino-1+2 indices remaining cooler at -0.8degC and

-0.7degC, respectively (Fig. 2). The equatorial subsurface

temperature index (average from 180deg-100degW) became slightly

positive (Fig. 3), reflecting the expansion of above-average

temperatures from the western to the east-central Pacific

at depth (Fig. 4). Atmospheric anomalies across the tropical

Pacific Ocean remained consistent with La Nina. For most of the

month, easterly wind anomalies were present over the central

equatorial Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies

continued across the equatorial Pacific. Enhanced convection

persisted over Indonesia and suppressed convection strengthened

near the Date Line (Fig. 5). The equatorial Southern Oscillation

index was positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere

system remains consistent with La Nina.



The IRI multi-model predictions indicate ENSO-neutral will

emerge during January-March (JFM) 2026 (Fig. 6). In conjunction

with the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, the team favors

ENSO-neutral to develop during JFM 2026. Even after equatorial

Pacific SSTs transition to ENSO-neutral, La Nina may still

have some lingering influence through the early Northern

Hemisphere spring 2026 (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks). For

longer forecast horizons, there are growing chances of El Nino,

though there remains uncertainty given the lower accuracy

of model forecasts through the spring. In summary, La Nina

persists, followed by a 75percent chance of a transition to

ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026. ENSO-neutral is likely

through at least Northern Hemisphere late spring 2026 (Fig. 7).



This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather

Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric

conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction

Center website (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert

Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available

here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for

12 February 2026. To receive an e-mail notification when the

monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send

an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.







$$