930 

FXUS24 KWNC 131410

PMDENS

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

900 AM EDT Thu 13 Nov 2025



NOTE: figures mentioned in the discussion are available on

the internet at HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



ENSO Alert System Status: La Nina Advisory



Synopsis: La Nina is favored to continue into the Northern

Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most

likely in January-March 2026 (61percent chance).



La Nina continued over the past month, as indicated by

the strengthening of below-average sea surface temperatures

(SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean

(Fig. 1). The latest weekly Nino indices were between -0.5degC

and -0.7degC, with the exception of the easternmost Nino-1+2

index at -0.2degC (Fig. 2). Negative subsurface temperature

anomalies persisted (averaged from 180deg-100degW; Fig. 3),

with below-average temperatures prevailing from the surface

to 200m depth in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific

(Fig. 4). The atmosphere continued to reflect La Nina, with

low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly

wind anomalies observed across most of the equatorial Pacific

Ocean. Enhanced convection persisted over Indonesia and was

weakly suppressed near the Date Line (Fig. 5). Both the

traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were

positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system

reflected La Nina.



The IRI multi-model predictions favor La Nina to continue

through December-February (DJF) 2025-26 (Fig. 6). While also

considering predictions from the North American Multi-Model

Ensemble, the ENSO team believes uncertainty for the DJF

season is high with La Nina (51percent chance) slightly favored

over ENSO-neutral (48percent chance). La Nina is expected to

remain weak (3-month average Nino-3.4 index value at or between

-0.5degC and -0.9degC). A weak La Nina would be less likely

to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable

signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g.,

CPC's seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Nina is favored to

continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition

to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (61percent

chance; Fig. 7).



This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather

Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric

conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction

Center website (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert

Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available

here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for

11 December 2025. To receive an e-mail notification when the

monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send

an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.







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