@ FXUS64 KTSA 201047 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 547 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Abnormally cool weather is expected through Thursday, with a slow warming trend then developing into next week. - Rain and thunder chances will continue daily through the forecast period, with periods of heavy rain. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Beneficial rain has fallen across eastern OK and northwest AR over the last 24 hours or so. Zones receiving the most rainfall have been: far northeast OK into far northwest AR and southeast OK, especially far southeast OK, where amounts have averaged between two to three inches. Most impressive amounts fell in parts of northeast Ottawa County, near the tri-state marker, where radar estimates around four inches or greater fell. A few elevated showers and sprinkles have developed along the I-44 corridor, near an elevated frontal boundary. Last few runs of the HRRR have been on the aggressive side of intensifying these showers/storms and expanding them into far eastern OK and northwest AR after midnight. Brief pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible if this scenario occurs as they progress eastward through the overnight period tonight. Additional rainfall amounts up to a quarter of an inch will be possible, especially across far northwest AR. Precipitation chances will begin to trend lower by or just after daybreak Wednesday and is forecast to remain mostly dry through the remainder of the day. A few isolated/spotty showers and storms are possible in the afternoon, mostly affecting parts of southeast OK and northwest AR, but no hazardous impacts are expected. Cloud cover will remain fairly thick through Wednesday morning, but some breaks and thinning of clouds may occur during the afternoon, especially portions of southeast OK. Cloud cover will keep temperatures generally below average through the daytime, with afternoon highs reaching the mid-upper 60s to lower 70s north of I-40 and mid-upper 70s to near 80 degrees south of I-40. If enough sunlight is able to break through the clouds, temps may warm up closer to average. Next best chance of widespread rain, with isolated thunderstorms, will arrive late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as another mid-level shortwave trough approaches the area from the southwest. Very limited instability and weak flow aloft will suppress any chance of severe storms, but moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible as PWATs increase between 1.5-1.75 inches across the area by sunrise Thursday morning. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered to numerous showers, with embedded scattered thunderstorms, will likely be ongoing Thursday morning as a mid- level shortwave trough, downstream from its parent trough axis, pivots northeastward across the forecast area. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement an uptick in precipitation intensity will occur late in the morning through the afternoon. Despite an increase in moisture and instability by Thursday afternoon, wind shear is still expected to be weak and should keep any severe potential very low to none. Will continue to monitor trends in data. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be the main concern as it may lead to nuisance flooding and potentially flash flooding through the daytime Thursday and into Thursday night. Forecast uncertainty begins to increase by Friday, though models and ensembles continue to support the idea of multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain each day through the upcoming weekend. Signals in model data suggest the brunt of the heaviest rainfall will occur mainly late evening through the overnight period each night Friday night through Sunday night. Once again, severe potential is expected to be very limited to none as flow aloft remains too weak to support organized severe storms through the upcoming weekend. However, efficient elevated instability and abnormally high PWATs through the period will maintain the risk of heavy rainfall and potential flooding, including river flooding, each day/night. Mejia && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Shower and thunderstorms are ongoing along and just east of the Oklahoma/Arkansas border, with CAMs showing their dissipation by mid morning. Will keep a thunderstorm mention at the W AR sites for the first couple of hours of the TAF period. Most sites continue to have IFR ceilings, with the exception being FSM, and a slow improvement to MVFR is expected late morning into the afternoon. Existing visibility reductions in light fog should also improve by this time. Ceilings should decrease once again during the latter part of the TAF period, with additional showers or thunderstorms possible for the E OK sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 68 60 72 62 / 20 40 90 80 FSM 80 65 77 64 / 20 30 60 90 MLC 76 64 75 64 / 20 30 90 70 BVO 66 54 70 58 / 10 50 80 80 FYV 73 61 75 62 / 30 20 70 90 BYV 69 59 73 61 / 20 20 50 80 MKO 72 62 73 62 / 20 30 90 80 MIO 65 58 72 61 / 10 40 80 80 F10 71 61 73 61 / 20 40 90 80 HHW 80 65 74 63 / 30 40 90 80 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...22