@ FNUS75 KTFX 201039 FWSTFX Spot Forecast for Jericho Creek Fire...USFS National Weather Service Great Falls MT 439 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on May 20. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... A disturbance and attendant cold front will move across the Northern Rockies through the day today, with showers and isolated thunderstorms chances increasing prior to and then lingering in wake of the frontal passage. Westerly surface winds will turn to the northwest and north in wake of the front, with a 45% chance that wind gusts exceed 25 mph this afternoon. Precipitation coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest between 1600 and 2200 local time today. By Thursday afternoon there is a 95% chance that precipitation amounts will exceed 0.10", 80% chance of exceeding 0.25", and 50% chance of exceeding 0.50". Falling snow levels during evening and overnight hours will allow rain to mix with or change over to snow, with a 10% chance that snowfall amounts exceed 1". .TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of rain in the morning, then rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. CWR.................10 percent. Chance of thunder...32 percent. Max temperature.....49-54. Min humidity........45-50 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......West winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the northwest and increasing to 10 to 20 in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Ridgetop...........West 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........42 26 37 42 55 67 71 83 76 85 87 84 Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY Weather type.... RN RN RN RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 10 20 20 20 30 30 30 Temp............32 33 37 42 44 46 48 49 49 49 46 45 RH..............97 88 78 67 57 53 50 50 50 55 56 72 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W NW NW 20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 FT wind gust.10 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 20 20 20 15 Ridge wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W NW Ridge wind spd..25 25 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.5 6.0 5.5 5.5 4.5 4.0 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W Transp wind spd.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 20 20 15 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers, snow showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of snow overnight. CWR.................55 percent decreasing to 10 percent overnight. Chance of thunder...16 percent. Min temperature.....27-32. Max humidity........95-100 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the north in the late evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Ridgetop...........North 5 to 10 mph increasing to northeast around 20 mph. Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest around 15 mph shifting to the north early in the evening. TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........88 90 93 91 89 75 94 85 73 87 82 83 Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC Weather type....RW RW RW RS SW SW SN SN SN SN SN SN Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH CWR.............60 60 60 60 60 60 10 10 10 10 10 10 Chc of thdr (%).20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............42 38 36 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 RH..............88 89 97 100 100 99 98 97 97 98 98 99 20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW N N N N N NE N N 20 FT wind spd..10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT wind gust.15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 Ridge wind dir..N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE Ridge wind spd..5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 20 Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 Transp wind dir.NW NW N N N N N N N N N N Transp wind spd.15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 10 10 .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of snow early in the morning, then slight chance of rain showers and snow showers late in the morning. CWR.................5 percent. Chance of thunder...10 percent. Max temperature.....48-53. Min humidity........39-44 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......North winds 5 to 10 mph. Ridgetop...........Northeast 10 to 20 mph becoming north 5 to 10 mph late in the morning. Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North 10 to 15 mph. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........83 83 83 73 73 73 68 68 68 49 49 49 Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH Weather type....SN SN RS Tstm cov........ CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 Temp............29 29 30 34 37 39 41 43 44 47 48 49 RH..............100 100 98 85 80 73 67 61 57 52 47 44 20 FT wind dir..N N N N N N N N N N N N 20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT wind gust.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Ridge wind dir..NE NE NE NE NE N N N N NW NW NW Ridge wind spd..20 20 20 15 15 10 5 5 5 10 5 5 Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.5 4.5 6.0 6.5 6.0 6.5 6.5 Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N N N N N Transp wind spd.10 10 10 15 10 10 10 10 15 10 15 15 $$ Forecaster...Moldan Requested by...Will menning Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2613863.3/TFX .DELDT 05/20/26 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL scott.nelson@dnr.wa.gov,MTHDC@firenet.gov,megan.nolte@usda.gov,william.menning@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov