@                      FNUS72 KTBW 191802
FWSTBW

Spot Forecast for Duette Prescribed Fire...Manatee County
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
202 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 EDT on May 20. 
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (813) 645-2323 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
East winds will prevail through tonight into tomorrow, then the sea
breeze will likely end up stopping very near the burn, with winds
briefly turning winds northwest in the late afternoon/evening. 
Similar to today, rain and thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon and evening hours. 

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). 
Chance of pcpn......0 percent. 
Min temperature.....Around 70. 
Max humidity........97 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 7 mph. 
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....East 8 to 10 mph. 
Dispersion index....5. 
LVORI...............7. 

TIME (EDT)      MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 
Sky (%).........9   9   6   11  14  18  
Weather cov.....                        
Weather type....                        
Tstm cov........                        
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   
Temp............75  74  73  72  72  71  
RH..............91  92  95  95  96  97  
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   5   5   5   
20 FT wind gust.14  13  12  10  10  9   
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  9   9   8   
Dispersion idx..7   6   5   4   3   4   
LVORI...........5   5   6   7   8   8   

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of 
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the 
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms 
                    late in the afternoon. 
Chance of pcpn......50 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 93. 
Min humidity........49 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds 
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the 
                    afternoon. 
Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....East 6 to 10 mph. 
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 42. 
LVORI...............5. 

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 
Sky (%).........21  23  23  24  26  27  33  40  46  50  53  57  
Weather cov.....                                    SCH CHC CHC 
Weather type....                                    RW  RW  RW  
Tstm cov........                                    SCH CHC CHC 
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  20  40  50  
Temp............71  71  73  78  81  84  88  90  91  92  91  91  
RH..............96  96  97  84  75  69  59  55  51  49  50  50  
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   
20 FT wind gust.9   10  10  12  12  10  10  9   10  9   9   9   
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.7 1.8 2.9 3.6 4.7 5.5 6.1 6.2 5.5 5.2 
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  
Transp wind spd.8   8   9   10  9   8   7   7   7   6   6   6   
Dispersion idx..4   5   9   17  27  35  41  45  46  45  43  37  
LVORI...........8   8   7   5   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming 
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming 
                    clear (0-10 percent). Showers likely and chance 
                    of thunderstorms in the evening. 
Chance of pcpn......60 percent. 
Min temperature.....Around 71. 
Max humidity........95 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 6 mph shifting to the 
                    east around 5 mph early in the evening, then 
                    shifting to the south late in the evening 
                    shifting to the east 5 to 6 mph in the late 
                    evening and overnight becoming light becoming 
                    east around 5 mph early in the morning. Gusty 
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms 
                    early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds 
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the 
                    evening. 
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast 
                    8 to 12 mph early in the evening. 
Dispersion index....27 decreasing to 4. 
LVORI...............5. 

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 
Sky (%).........59  60  62  54  47  39  37  17  10  4   4   5   
Weather cov.....CHC LKY CHC CHC SCH                             
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW                              
Tstm cov........CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH                             
Chc of pcpn (%).50  60  50  30  20  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   
Temp............89  86  82  79  78  76  75  74  73  73  72  72  
RH..............53  60  71  78  81  84  88  91  92  93  95  93  
20 FT wind dir..NW  E   E   S   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   5   5   6   6   5   5   5   3   5   
20 FT wind gust.9   9   8   9   10  12  12  10  10  9   8   8   
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  E   SE  SE  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  
Transp wind spd.7   8   9   10  12  10  9   9   9   8   8   8   
Dispersion idx..27  15  6   3   3   5   4   4   4   4   3   4   
LVORI...........2   2   3   4   5   5   5   5   6   7   7   7   

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of showers and 
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon. 
Chance of pcpn......30 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 94. 
Min humidity........46 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph in the 
                    morning and early afternoon, then shifting to 
                    the northwest around 6 mph late in the 
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected 
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph shifting to the northwest 
                    8 to 9 mph late in the afternoon. 
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 58. 
LVORI...............4. 

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 
Sky (%).........11  19  17  39  20  12  17  23  28  30  33  35  
Weather cov.....                                CHC CHC CHC CHC 
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW  
Tstm cov........                                CHC CHC CHC CHC 
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   30  30  30  30  
Temp............72  72  74  78  82  85  88  90  92  93  92  91  
RH..............93  94  93  82  73  66  59  52  48  46  46  48  
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   N   NW  
20 FT wind spd..3   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   9   9   9   
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.9 1.9 2.7 3.6 4.6 5.7 6.8 6.3 5.8 5.3 
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   N   NW  
Transp wind spd.7   7   8   9   9   8   7   6   6   7   8   9   
Dispersion idx..4   5   9   17  28  37  42  44  47  55  60  59  
LVORI...........6   6   6   5   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   

$$
Forecaster...Carlisle
Requested by...Jerry Miller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2614038.0/TBW
.DELDT 05/19/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jerry.miller@mymanatee.org
