@ FXUS64 KSJT 200720 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 220 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible this afternoon and tonight mainly in Crockett county, Concho Valley and I-10 corridor. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms today into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 149 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 With afternoon heating and a weak embedded shortwaves CAMs are indicating scattered showers to develop this afternoon, particularly in western zones including Crockett county and Concho Valley mid afternoon, which move east in the late afternoon. A second stronger band of showers and thunderstorm is then indicated moving through tonight, beginning in western zones around 10 PM. Some storms could become severe as MUCAPES increase to 2500 J/KG mainly along and south of a Big Lake to Junction line. SPC has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms west of a Sterling City...Mertzon...Sonora line with marginal risk east to Sweetwater, Ballinger to Eden and Junction. The CAMs do indicated the stronger convection in Crockett county and I-10 corridor. Large hail is the main threat. Cooler otherwise today with clouds and storm. Highs range from the mid 70s north to upper 70s south. Lows overnight will be in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The upper level pattern shows persistent troughing over the western US, especially over the Desert Southwest and Baja California, for Thursday through this weekend. This places the southern Plains in predominantly southwest flow aloft during this time. Several weak embedded waves will be ejected eastward by the trough into west Texas for Thursday through Saturday. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly to southeasterly flow should continue to advect a moist, unstable airmass into west central Texas over top of the boundary that stalled across Texas on Tuesday. On Thursday there are medium to high (40-75%) chances for showers and thunderstorms. PWAT values of 1-1.5 inches are expected which may lead to more heavy rain and flooding concerns, especially across eastern counties. Chances for storms look lower on Friday after the first upper-level wave passes and the aforementioned surface boundary lifts northward to the central Plains. The upper-level trough over the Baja will move eastward into Texas on Saturday while the surface front drops southward into west Texas. Afternoon thunderstorm chances should increase again for Saturday and Sunday along and ahead of this front. Models show this upper low potentially becoming a weak cutoff low over east Texas for early next week while another upper trough approaches from the western US. This setup would keep our neck of the woods in an active pattern with chances for thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday. The risk of severe weather is difficult to determine at this time until the picture becomes a bit clearer. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thunderstorm complex has moved east, temporarily leaving VFR conditions. However, stratus with MVFR ceilings was moving back into KABI and the rest of the terminals should fall back to MVFR overnight. Ceilings should rise to VFR by early afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but isolated thunderstorms may also affect the rest of the terminals. A larger complex of storms will move in late evening from west to east, with MVFR ceilings returning by midnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 76 63 78 63 / 30 60 70 10 San Angelo 77 62 80 63 / 50 70 40 20 Junction80 63 80 63 / 60 80 50 20 Brownwood 77 63 77 62 / 40 70 70 20 Sweetwater 75 62 78 63 / 40 60 50 10 Ozona 78 62 81 63 / 60 70 30 30 Brady 77 63 77 63 / 40 70 60 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...04