@ FXUS64 KSJT 200545 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1245 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible for this evening and tonight across the Edwards Plateau and western Concho Valley. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon, with some being severe. Expect these storms to continue developing and expanding in coverage through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Most CAMs eventually expand this convection into a somewhat organized MCS, and move it south into south Texas later tonight. The main concerns will continue to be large hail and damaging winds. In addition, precipitable water values are between 1 and 1.5 inches, and with the generally slow movement of these storms, flash flooding will also be a concern. For Wednesday, CAMs disagree with each other on the coverage and intensity of possible convection, but with a boundary in the area, the moisture remaining in place, and continued southwest flow with embedded shortwave energy, we will likely have another at least medium (20%-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon as afternoon heating affects the area. We will continue to see at least a Slight Risk for severe storms, mainly for our southern counties Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The upper level pattern shows persistent troughing over the western US, especially over the Desert Southwest and Baja California, for Thursday through this weekend. This places the southern Plains in predominantly southwest flow aloft during this time. Several weak embedded waves will be ejected eastward by the trough into west Texas for Thursday through Saturday. Meanwhile at the surface, southerly to southeasterly flow should continue to advect a moist, unstable airmass into west central Texas over top of the boundary that stalled across Texas on Tuesday. On Thursday there are medium to high (40-75%) chances for showers and thunderstorms. PWAT values of 1-1.5 inches are expected which may lead to more heavy rain and flooding concerns, especially across eastern counties. Chances for storms look lower on Friday after the first upper-level wave passes and the aforementioned surface boundary lifts northward to the central Plains. The upper-level trough over the Baja will move eastward into Texas on Saturday while the surface front drops southward into west Texas. Afternoon thunderstorm chances should increase again for Saturday and Sunday along and ahead of this front. Models show this upper low potentially becoming a weak cutoff low over east Texas for early next week while another upper trough approaches from the western US. This setup would keep our neck of the woods in an active pattern with chances for thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday. The risk of severe weather is difficult to determine at this time until the picture becomes a bit clearer. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thunderstorm complex has moved east, temporarily leaving VFR conditions. However, stratus with MVFR ceilings was moving back into KABI and the rest of the terminals should fall back to MVFR overnight. Ceilings should rise to VFR by early afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but isolated thunderstorms may also affect the rest of the terminals. A larger complex of storms will move in late evening from west to east, with MVFR ceilings returning by midnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 76 63 78 63 / 30 60 70 10 San Angelo 77 62 80 63 / 50 70 40 20 Junction 80 63 80 63 / 50 80 50 20 Brownwood 77 63 77 62 / 30 70 70 20 Sweetwater 75 62 78 63 / 40 60 50 10 Ozona 78 62 81 63 / 70 70 30 30 Brady 77 63 77 63 / 40 70 60 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...04