@ FXUS64 KSJT 191739 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1239 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening... Cold front just north of Childress at 130 AM expected to move along I-20 mid morning around 9 AM and then slow down as it moves south along a San Angelo to Brownwood line 3-4 PM. While isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this morning in the Big Country, a larger complex of strong to severe storms is expected to develop in the Concho Valley to Brownwood in maximum heating this afternoon. Complex then moves south and east into the I-10 corridor and NW Hill country this evening. With CAPES of 4000 J/kg and 0-6KM bulk shears of 30 to 35 KTS, supercells with very large hail over 2 inches possible. The complex of storms should move south of West Central by midnight, ending most of the severe weather threat. Precipital water values around 1.5 inches indicate efficient rainfall producers, and localized flooding possible, especially in urban areas. .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An active weather pattern will persist through much of the long term with a persistent upper level southwest flow with disturbances moving across our area. Also, the combination of a cold front south of the area and abundant moisture(PW values 1 to 1.5 inches) will bring a risk of localized flash flooding, especially Wednesday night and Thursday as the WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall along and south of the I-20 corridor. Also, there is and isolated flash flood threat this weekend across the southeast part of the area. There are medium to high chances of rain for at least a few days in the long term. Also, there is an isolated severe weather threat(marginal risk) for the southern 2/3 of the area Tuesday evening across the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the upper 70s and 80s, around to slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Currently VFR at all sites as a cold front moves through from north to south. TSRA are expected to develop off of this cold front later this afternoon and evening, and affect KSJT, KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT during the evening hours. Have kept VCTS and TEMPO groups going from late this afternoon into the evening hours at these sites to address these storms. These TSRA should dissipate by 06Z, after which the cold front is expected to stall somewhere in our southern counties, giving east/northeast to northeast winds for our southern sites, with MVFR CIGs filling in behind the front after 06Z, and remaining through most of the morning Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 61 78 64 78 / 40 30 80 70 San Angelo 62 79 62 80 / 60 40 70 60 Junction 64 81 63 80 / 70 30 80 60 Brownwood 63 79 63 78 / 60 30 70 70 Sweetwater 60 77 62 79 / 30 30 80 60 Ozona 63 80 62 81 / 60 40 70 30 Brady 63 78 64 77 / 70 30 70 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...20