@ FXUS61 KRLX 200032 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 832 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast Discussion update. 527 PM Update... Scattered thunderstorms have developed across southeast Ohio over the last hour or so, with a strong to isolated severe threat over the next hour or two across the area as activity continues to shift northeast through the region. The main threat is strong to damaging wind gusts with any stronger / collapsing cores, although marginally severe hail cannot entirely be ruled out. Have increased PoPs across southeast Ohio and far northwest West Virginia over the next few hours to better reflect radar trends. 147 PM Update... Chances for locally heavy rainfall along and ahead of a cold front Wednesday have increased. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the north and west this afternoon. A decaying complex of storms could bring a marginal threat for damaging wind gusts to southeast Ohio tonight. 2.) A cold front crossing the region Wednesday afternoon and evening brings a threat for damaging winds and localized flash flooding, particularly across the Metro Valley. 3.) Much cooler and drier conditions are expected Thursday. Unsettled weather returns Friday and lasts through the Memorial Day weekend with repeated chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate diurnal cumulus/cumulonimbus development across the region this afternoon amid temperatures climbing into the upper 80s. With relatively weak capping everywhere, at least isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible through loss of heating this evening, most prevalent across the west and north where capping is weakest. Steep low level lapse rates could yield some gusty winds underneath the strongest cores, but the overall severe risk remains fairly low through early this evening.. Attention then turns to tonight as a complex of storms approaches from the west. With the loss of daytime heating and waning instability, this complex is expected to gradually dissipate as it approaches the Ohio River. However, any more robust line segments could still contain marginally severe gusts as they move into southeast Ohio. KEY MESSAGE 2... The main forecast challenge resides with the activity ahead of and along an approaching cold front on Wednesday. Moisture pooling ahead of the front, coupled with strong surface heating, will yield moderate instability heading into Wednesday afternoon with Mixed-Layer CAPE building in excess of 1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates remain rather poor, steep low level lapse rates and DCAPE near 800 J/kg will present a threat for damaging downburst winds. Deep layer shear is expected to remain on the weaker side, generally around 25 to 30KTs, which will favor multicellular clusters. A transient window for supercells may materialize if a brief uptick in shear to 35 KTs overlaps with peak heating. Some mid-level drying could introduce a marginal hail threat in the strongest updrafts, but wet bulb zero heights generally remain above 10-11kft limiting potential for survival of marginally severe hail to the surface. A secondary, and perhaps more impactful, concern for Wednesday will be the potential for training heavy downpours. Boundary flow is forecast to become nearly parallel to the advancing front. This, combined with deep warm cloud depths around 9000 to 10000 ft and precipitable water values pooling to 1.7 inches (above the 90th percentile climatology for this time of year), supports highly efficient rainfall production. Probability matched means HREF/REFS highlight a narrow temporal window between 4 PM and 8 PM for localized heavy rain, clustered primarily across the Metro Valley and adjacent counties. While antecedent soil conditions are quite dry across the area, the intensity of the rainfall could overwhelm the basin response in steep terrain and urbanized environments. A quick 2.5 inches of rain would be sufficient to push small creeks out of their banks and cause flash flooding with lesser amounts causing issues in built up areas. A targeted flash flood watch may become necessary if guidance remains consistent on the placement of the heaviest rainfall axis over the next few model runs. KEY MESSAGE 3... The cold front pushes south of the area on Thursday, allowing most locations to dry out as cooler air filters in. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 70s on Thursday under the influence of cold advection. This respite is brief, as the frontal boundary shifts back to the north as a warm front on Friday, placing the region in an unsettled warm sector heading into the Memorial Day weekend. The boundary is expected to stall just to our north across the Upper Ohio Valley. Friday currently appears to be the wettest day of the extended period. Depending on the exact placement and amounts of Wednesday's heavy rainfall, antecedent soil moisture could become locally compromised, yielding a conditional risk for additional high water concerns on Friday. Showery activity will continue periodically from Saturday through Memorial Day as a persistent Bermuda high over the Atlantic continues to shunt shortwaves through the Ohio Valley. Through this period, there is no strong signal for organized severe weather, as atmospheric instability is expected to remain rather weak with only periodic upticks in deep layer shear. Temperatures will rebound, bringing unseasonably warm, though perhaps not record-breaking, conditions back to the region for the latter half of the holiday weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weakening line of showers/storms will approach southeast Ohio early tonight, potentially bringing gusty winds and very brief MVFR VSBY to a few locations, although none of our TAF sites are anticipated to be affected. VFR persists elsewhere amid dry conditions and SCT high-level clouds. A cold front will cross on Wednesday bringing scattered showers/storms that gradually progress from north to south. Some heavier storms are possible during the afternoon/evening, potentially bringing strong wind gusts and heavy rain. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY is possible in any heavier showers or storms, while MVFR and perhaps IFR CIGs are expected in the afternoon/evening behind the front. Calm or light southwest flow is expected tonight. Southwest flow on Wednesday ahead of the front will veer to NNW following its passage. Occasional breezes of 15 kts or so are expected during the day on Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High tonight, medium on Wednesday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions associated with showers and storms on Wednesday may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/20/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions are possible Wednesday night into Thursday with showers and/or low stratus, especially in/near the mountains. Brief IFR is also possible at times Friday through the weekend with showers and/or thunderstorms. && .Climate... Slightly more substantial cloud cover may keep afternoon highs today just short of records in several locations. Forecast / Record High Temperatures ---------------------- Today, 5/19 | ---------------------- CRW | 90 / 95 (1931) | HTS | 89 / 92 (1996) | CKB | 89 / 90 (1959) | PKB | 89 / 90 (1964) | BKW | 85 / 89 (1996) | EKN | 86 / 93 (1996) | ---------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/GW AVIATION...GW CLIMATE...JP