@ FXUS65 KPUB 191518 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 918 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost and Freeze highlights remain in place for portions of the plains through 8 AM. - Cooler and wetter weather expected today and tomorrow, with best chances for widespread precip coming in tonight. - Strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible on Thursday, especially on our eastern plains. && .UPDATE... Issued at 910 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Weak disturbance approaching out west ahead of the Great Basin upper trough has developed some weak showers along the eastern mountains in area of upslope flow and mid level WAA. Showers should continue through the morning before diminishing, followed by some heating and convective instability developing in a narrow ribbon on the edge of the moisture gradient across the southeast mountains this afternoon. Instability is not all that high today, and any isolated thunderstorms that can fire may be confined to the western mountains. As they push eastward and encounter the cooler airmass to the east, we should see thunder risk diminish but showers persist as they get sustained by continued weak overrunning. Have made some tweaks to pops and took down Frost/Freeze highlights at their natural expiration. -KT && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 The post frontal cold airmass is finally here to stay, and critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for the next several days. Temperatures have fallen into the 30s and 40s across our plains and mountain valleys. With some lingering moisture and upslope in place, fog and freezing fog will be possible across the Pikes Peak region, the Arkansas River Valley, down into the Wet Mountain Valley and our mountain adjacent plains west of I-25. Frost Advisories have been been issued for many of these places that are into their growing seasons by now, and northern El Paso County remains in a Freeze Warning through 8 AM this morning as well. Temperatures look to stay cool under mostly cloudy skies today, though some clearing will be possible later this afternoon, especially further east where upsloping will be less impactful. Daytime highs are likely to remain in the 50s across the 1-25 corridor, with 60s for the San Luis Valley and the eastern plains. Some very light rain may be possible over our mountain adjacent plains and eastern mountains this morning as upslope deepens, but better chances for wetting rains move in after sunset as shortwave energy embedded in another trough out west comes through the region. Most areas along and east of the Continental Divide, and along and west of the I-25 corridor are expected to see chances for rain tonight into Wednesday morning. Snow levels look to drop down to 8,000 or 9,000ft in some areas, which should put some light snow accumulations on the higher peaks of the Sangres, the Wets, and the central mountains through the overnight hours. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night/early this morning in most places, though the Palmer Divide may drop down into the 33 to 34F degree range once again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday.. We start out our Wednesday morning cool, cloudy, and with precip chances for most areas, but dry out gradually through the morning hours, especially for areas south of Highway 50. After a morning lull in precip chances though, another approaching trough looks to bring showers and thunderstorms back for most of the high country and portions of our plains. Daytime highs in the 50s and 60s and more stable conditions on the plains should limit any chances for severe storms as the trough approaches, but clearing over thehigh country may lead to a few stronger storms. Thursday.. Thursday could be an interesting day as our next trough digs in to our northwest and brings stronger forcing for possible severe thunderstorms to our region. Models bring its axis into western CO through the afternoon, with southerly and southeasterly surface flow out ahead of if it through much of the day. This brings 40 and 50 degree dewpoints back into the plains, and juices up instability as well. Shear looks to be forecast around 35kt to 45kt for much of the eastern plains, where 50 degree dewpoints look to be possible. Models are not in great agreement about where a dryline may set up obviously with the event being this far out, but it is safe to say that Thursday will need to be watched closely for severe potential across our plains. Friday Onwards.. Models keeps us in cool northwest flow behind the front on Friday, though showers and thunderstorms look to remain possible, especially over and near the higher terrain. We warm up through the weekend as high pressure tries to build to our southwest, but enough moisture looks to stay over the region to keep at least slight chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain through the weekend. Winds look to stay on the weak side and humidity values look to stay above critical thresholds through the extended as well, so at this time fire danger is not expected. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 536 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 KALS: Mostly VFR conditions through 24 hours. Gusty southwest winds will pick up later this morning, gusting 25-30 knots through this evening. Some showers may move off of the mountains after 00Z or so, bringing the potential for -SHRA and briefly lowered cigs and vis into MVFR overnight and into Wednesday morning. KCOS: Brief light rain and drizzle will linger into late morning, with breezy southeast winds and MVFR cigs. More widespread rain showers will set in later tonight, with low-MVFR to high-IFR lasting overnight and into Wednesday morning. KPUB: Flow will remain ESE to ENE throughout the period, with low MVFR to IFR clouds. Chances for rain increase late this afternoon, becoming more widespread across the area after 00-03Z this evening. Even after rain dissipates late tonight, still expecting low clouds and some patchy mist/fog into Thursday morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO