@ FXUS63 KPAH 191738 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1238 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Quad State this afternoon into tonight, with a 60-90% chance of rain peaking this evening. A few isolated strong to severe storms are possible during peak heating, with damaging winds being the main hazard of concern. - Daily rain chances continue over the next week, with at least a 30-50% chance or greater of rain each day. Thursday will be the driest day with rain chances confined to mainly the south. - Temperatures trend below normal after today into the 70s along with a decrease in humidity before quickly rebounding back into the 80s by the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An MCS upstream this morning across Missouri will set the stage for more unsettled weather later today. Ahead of an approaching cold front, an influx of moisture will cause dewpoints to rise near 70. High temperatures will be unseasonably warm in the mid to upper 80s with the exception of the far west due to more cloud cover. An increase in the pressure gradient will support deep layer mixing in the boundary layer that will yield breezy conditions with wind gusts between 20-25 mph. As a prefrontal mid-level impulse approaches midday, the CAMs differ on the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms along residual outflow boundaries. The 0z ARW and HRRR keep convection this afternoon more scattered with storms growing more upscale tonight. Meanwhile the NSSL, FV3, and newer hourly runs of the HRRR show more robust convection occurring during the afternoon with a line propagating east. Despite the uncertainly in the timing of storm coverage, rain chances increase late this afternoon into the evening, peaking at a 60-90% chance. Although the SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather (Level 2/5) over much of the Quad State, the shear will be more meager compared to yesterday with 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear at best. However, given a robust MLCAPE axis of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates of 8.0 to 8.5 C/km, the thermodynamics will still support an isolated severe storm with damaging winds being the main hazard of concern if convection can become organized during peak heating. The main forcing mechanism will be surface convergence as the better upper level kinematics lift more north through the afternoon which may limit the potential. With that said, the other concern will be torrential downpours that will be capable of causing localized flash flooding issues in the typical low-lying locations with PWATs around 1.75 to 2.00 inches. Despite the cold front pushing south of the FA on Wednesday, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into the latter half of the week, with a 30-50% chance confined to the southern most counties on Thursday when the driest conditions are progged. High temperatures will also be a few degrees below normal in the 70s along with lower humidity as northerly flow associated with a ~1030 mb sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes region advects in drier air. The more comfortable airmass will not last for long as the front lifts back north on Friday, causing humidity levels to quickly rebound along with a warming trend into the 80s for the upcoming weekend. Isentropic lift will also yield numerous showers and thunderstorms, with a 80-90% chance of rain peaking during the morning hours on the NBM. Daily storm chances then continue into early next week, with high temperatures trending back into the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered convection will continue to blossom across the region this afternoon, producing brief restrictions to vsby and cigs. Fairly widespread coverage of -SHRA is expected tonight into Wednesday morning, with embedded thunder aspect. Timing of -TSRA is a bit tricky, but for now kept mention primarily during the afternoon and again overnight. Cigs are expected to deteriorate later this evening and overnight, eventually becoming IFR for many areas and stay that way into Wednesday morning. Breezy south-southwest winds today will switch around to northerly tomorrow as the cold front makes passage. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ILZ083-085>094. MO...None. IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KYZ014-018. && $$ UPDATE...SP DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...SP