@ FXUS62 KMLB 200638 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 238 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - Continued High Risk for life-threatening rip currents at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged! - Temperatures see little change into early next week, but increasing humidity into the weekend will produce heat index values near or above 100 degrees and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk. - Isolated coastal showers continue. However, most convection will be focused over the interior, moving towards the west coast into the evening. Overall, many locations will stay dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Today-Tonight...A rinse and repeat forecast today, as a ridge remains placed northeast of the local area. The only difference today looks to be a very minor reduction in east to southeast flow. However, winds are still expected to increase to around 10-15 mph behind the sea breeze, with gusts to near 20 mph, especially along the coast. Winds then become light overnight, a reduction from the previous few days. High temperatures continue in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows in the 70s, but near 80 along the coast. With little change to the overall pattern, have maintained a low chance (15%) for onshore- moving showers through tonight across coastal areas, knowing that CAMs struggle to resolve these features. A slight reduction in the east coast sea breeze is expected to allow for a more interior collision over the peninsula, though it still favors areas well west of Orlando. Outside of light coastal showers, the sea breeze will be the focus of convection this afternoon, with PoPs 20-40%. Drier air in the mid-levels leading to DCAPE near 1000 J/kg and 500 mb temperatures near -10 C could once again support a strong storm or two, with gusty winds near 50 mph and small hail, as well as lightning strikes. Any showers and storms that develop will drift westerly, inland from the coast. Thursday-Wednesday...High pressure remains off of the eastern US seaboard through the forecast period, though it is expected to drift southward towards Florida into mid-week next week and strengthen. Meanwhile, a mid to upper level low north of the Bahamas drifts eastward late this week, with upper level ridging subsequently developing over the peninsula. Locally, little change remains expected to the weather pattern over the next seven days. East to southeast flow prevails on the southern periphery of the ridge. Winds increase each afternoon to 10-15 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph, behind the sea breeze as it moves inland. The strongest gusts are expected along the coast. The daily sea breeze collision will continue to favor the far interior, if not western half of the peninsula. Thus, that's where the highest rainfall chances are for the afternoons and into the evening hours (PoPs 20-50%). A slight increase in moisture this weekend looks to have little effect on PoPs, as ridging develops aloft. Regardless, isolated coastal showers embedded within onshore flow are expected to persist through much of the period, especially during the overnight and early morning hours. However, most areas will likely remain dry overall. Lingering drier air in the mid- levels could support a few strong wind gusts in any more developed storms through Friday, before increasing moisture and warming 500mb temperatures reduce that threat into the weekend. E/SE flow holds high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. As moisture increases into the weekend, so do heat indices, which rise into the upper 90s to low 100s. Humid conditions and little relief overnight dueto temperatures remaining in the 70s (and near 80 along the coast) will lead to increasing coverage of Moderate HeatRisk and even a developing Major HeatRisk for several ECFL locations (including the Orlando metro). Use caution during the heat of the day, especially this weekend, by staying hydrated and taking breaks in an air- conditioned space. A High Risk or high- end Moderate Risk for rip currents looks to continue through the week into the weekend, thanks to onshore flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain east to southeast flow through the weekend. Winds remain around 10-15 kts, with gusts near 20 kts along the coast behind the sea breeze. Shallow, low-level moisture will support at least isolated showers through the weekend. However, a majority of convection will develop over land areas along the sea breeze and drift farther westward. Seas 2-4 ft prevail into the weekend, though occasionally reach up to 5 ft well offshore. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 721 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. East winds 10-15 KT this afternoon with locally higher gusts will decrease to around 5 KT overnight. East to east-southeast winds will increase to around 10 KT by 14Z and then increase to 8-12 KT with gusts to around 20 KT in the afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Much like today, scattered showers will be moving onshore through the morning/early afternoon before transitioning to the interior with the inland moving sea breeze in the afternoon. Have included VCSH wording along the coast starting at 14Z and then transitioning to the interior at 20/21Z. Isolated showers will continue to push along the coast through tomorrow night. However timing and coverage are too low to warrant VC wording at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 72 89 75 / 20 20 20 20 MCO 90 72 91 74 / 30 10 30 10 MLB 86 77 88 79 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 87 76 88 78 / 20 20 20 20 LEE 91 73 91 74 / 30 20 30 20 SFB 91 72 92 74 / 30 10 40 0 ORL 90 72 91 74 / 30 10 40 10 FPR 86 75 88 77 / 20 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wishard AVIATION...Law