@ FXUS62 KMLB 200539 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 139 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Continued high risk for life-threatening rip currents at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged! - Humidity increases late week into the weekend, leading to heat index values near or above 100 degrees. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast across east central Florida. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue each day, moving inland toward the west Florida coast by the afternoon and evening. Overall, many locations will stay dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Now-Tonight...Isolated, east-to-west-moving showers are developing this afternoon in the presence of 1.5-1.6" PW (GOES imagery). Some cells have produced lightning, more so after reaching interior portions of east-central Florida (north side of Lake Okeechobee and northwest of Orlando). About 400 miles to the east of Cape Canaveral, satellite imagery clearly outlines a spinning upper low and weak surface trough. Persistent easterlies, sufficient moisture, and perhaps a small influence from this offshore feature are even supporting isolated shower development at the coast as of 2 PM. CAMs have struggled to resolve this shallow-layer precipitation for the last 24 hours, so decided to update the forecast with a low rain chance over the waters and immediate coast through tonight into Wednesday morning. Rain will be hit or miss for most locations with the greatest chances (30%) focused well inland. Any deeper convection is expected along the west coast of FL into this evening. Overnight lows settle into the low 70s inland but will remain in the mid to upper 70s along the coast. At the beaches, a high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged! Wednesday-Tuesday (modified)...The surface ridge remains over the western Atlantic through the period, with its axis stretched generally towards the Carolinas into the weekend. Aloft, the aforementioned mid to upper level low drifts towards the east coast of Florida through Thursday-Friday before it weakens and ridging restrengthens this weekend into next week. Overall, little change is expected to the Florida peninsula's weather pattern over the next seven days. East to southeast flow increases to around 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph each afternoon, especially behind the sea breeze. Embedded isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will remain possible during the overnight and early morning hours, occasionally drifting onshore, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Then, convection focuses over the interior or western half of the peninsula, with the greatest coverage of showers and storms along the sea breeze collision in the late afternoon and evening. Rain chances are generally 15-30% through the rest of the work week before moisture increases a bit this weekend. Rain chances tick upward toward 30-50%, but again, not everywhere will see measurable rainfall. Lingering drier air in the mid-levels could support a few strong wind gusts in any more developed storms through Friday before increasing moisture and warming 500mb temperatures reduce that threat into the weekend. Onshore flow keeps high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. However, this will also lead to overnight lows remaining in the mid/upper 70s, at times even near 80 along the immediate coast. As moisture increases into the weekend, so do heat indices, which creep into the upper 90s to low 100s. Humid conditions and little relief overnight will lead to increasing coverage of Moderate HeatRisk and even a developing Major HeatRisk for several ECFL locations (including the Orlando metro). Use caution during the heat of the day, especially this weekend, by staying hydrated and taking breaks in an air-conditioned space. A high risk or high-end moderate risk for rip currents looks to continue through the week into the weekend, thanks to onshore flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 327 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 East-southeasterly flow continues with largely favorable boating conditions this week into the weekend. Moderate breezes with occasional gusts 15-20 kt are forecast each day, along with isolated/scattered shower and lightning storm chances. The greater risk for rain and storms will be over the FL Peninsula as the east coast breeze moves westward in the afternoon/evening. However, shallow, low-level moisture will support at least isolated showers through the weekend. Seas generally 2-4 ft, up to 5 ft occasionally well offshore. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 139 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR outside of any showers and storms. Onshore flow will continue to prompt rounds of isolated onshore-moving showers along the coast. Have kept VCSH mentioned at all coastal terminals from 14Z-20Z. Slightly better chances for isolated to scattered lightning storms are forecast across the interior as the sea breeze moves inland, and have included a mention of VCTS at the Greater Orlando terminals and LEE this afternoon and evening. East winds increase to 10-12 kts this afternoon with locally higher gusts at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 72 89 75 / 20 20 20 20 MCO 90 72 91 74 / 30 10 30 10 MLB 86 77 88 79 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 87 76 88 78 / 20 20 20 20 LEE 91 73 91 74 / 30 20 30 20 SFB 91 72 92 74 / 30 10 40 0 ORL 90 72 91 74 / 30 10 40 10 FPR 86 75 88 77 / 20 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Law