@ FXUS64 KHUN 191645 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1145 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Low to medium chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms return tonight. - Medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms then persist each day from Wednesday through much of the weekend. No severe weather is forecast. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A hot and humid summer like day is underway as temperatures as of 10am are in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F. The local forecast area remains along the western edge of high pressure that is centered over the Carolinas. The high clouds this morning continue to scatter out, but with daytime heating the fair weather Cu field is forecast to develop by this afternoon. Later today, expect afternoon highs to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s with max heat index values in the low to mid 90s. Looking at forecast soundings, the atmosphere becomes quite unstable, however with no lifting mechanism in place and some weak subsidence aloft, no precip is forecast today. If you plan on being outside this afternoon make sure to hydrate and practice good heat safety. By tonight, the MCS along a cold front that impacted MO/AR/LA will push eastward into TN/MS. By the time it reaches NW AL a gradual weakening trend is anticipated as it runs into a more stable environment. That being said, the outflow boundary associated with the MCS will at least provide a low chance (20-40%) of showers and storms after midnight in portions of NW AL. No severe storms are forecast given the weak vertical wind shear. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 1014 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front associated with the active weather to our west finally makes its way into the TN Valley. As it stalls just to our west, shortwaves are forecast to ripple northeastward along the boundary Wednesday and Thursday. This will result in medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms. While it is difficult to determine when the precip will occur, the best chances for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening hours. The good news is that there is little to no shear, therefore no severe storms are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026After sunrise, w A more summerlike pattern will persist through the Day 4-7 period as 5h ridging builds farther into the southeast U.S. and eastern Gulf of America. Southwesterly flow will persist northwest of the ridge, maintaining a moist flow of air into the Gulf States, particularly in the lower MS Valley where 2.0+ inch PWs will reside. Although, there is a corridor of slightly lower values in the 1.5-1.8 inch range over AL into eastern and middle TN, with higher values farther east across the FL peninsula through GA and the Carolinas. Multiple weak impulses will lift northeast through this period, with medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms each day (diurnally inflated due to heating). High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s, with lows in the 60s. Dew points will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions continue today with gusty southerly winds around 20 knots. Winds will subside and become light overnight. Tomorrow morning, rain and thunderstorm chances begin to increase. This will result in both vsbys and cigs dropping down to MVFR. One uncertainty is the timing, hence left in a prob 30 group for now and will refine in future forecasts.&& .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...GH