@ FXUS63 KDDC 200538 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1238 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Exceptionally pleasant latter half of the week - Rain chances (60-90%) for SW Kansas tomorrow night into Thursday morning - Warming back up into the 80s next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The synoptic pattern aloft is fairly unnoteworthy aside from a positively tilted low-pressure tough stretching down into southern Nevada. Close to the surface, weak low pressure has built up over the Great Plains portion of the CONUS. This evening will continue to see winds ease and temperatures drop via radiative cooling. Cloud cover building tomorrow afternoon will keep highs from getting too warm with the majority of SW Kansas staying in the 60s for a maximum temperatures. The significant focus of the forecast cycle comes tomorrow night will widespread precipitation expected. Models and ensembles continue to prog subtle moisture advection up into western Kansas. Very marginal chances begin via ensembles after noon. The chances uptick significantly after sunset with scattered showers descending southeastwardly. Forecast soundings have precipitable water values between 0.5-1". Despite CAMs holding a more scattered precipitation regime, ensembles keep amounts from 0.1- 0.25" with a maxima near 0.5 inch around Garden City. Instability is expected to be minimal to start with only benign showers forecast initially. Ensembles are very optimistic with rainfall chances through the event at or above 90% for the entire CWA, although it appears possible that some areas may only see amounts near a trace. While most of the first round of precipitation is expected to occur before noon Thursday, recent CAM runs have a convective signal near the Colorado border and weakening as it moves eastward into the evening potentially lasting into Friday. Again with the cloudiness and rain, highs again are forecast in the 60s across SW Kansas Thursday. Highs begin warming up on Friday with highs in the 70s, and into the 80s by Sunday. The start of next week will continue the warmer trend in the 80s. The forecast period has occasional possibilities for more precipitation, but the chances and agreement is low enough to where it is too uncertain to make declarations. However, in the wetter calmer pattern, minimum relative humidities maintain above 20% to quell most fire weather risk. Other than non-severe precipitation, little in the extended period is noteworthy. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period although lowered flight conditions may occur near the end of the period. Mostly weak surface highs aloft are present to start the period; light winds (5- 15 KTs) out of the east are forecast to continue. By around 2Z, lowered cloud cover and scattered showers are expected at or around all stations. Prior to 6Z, ensembles keep chances for <3k ft ceilings and probability of precipitation below 50%. However, it is very feasible that one more multiple sites may see lowered flight conditions in the TAF period owing to one or both of these conditions and future aviation forecasts will have more refined guidance. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...KBJ